There are two major "national" newspapers,
The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. Right?
OK, there are some MAJOR regional papers too. But, not really in the
same league with the WSJ and the NYT for a national readership.
But, here's the problem: THEY ARE BOTH BASED IN MANHATTAN! THEY ARE
VERY "NEW YORK CENTRIC."
Now, if you read the regional and local press, you get a totally
different point of view on many key issues.
For example;
THE PLANT CLOSINGS AND THE LAYOFFS ARE COVERED IN THE LOCAL PRESS IN
GREAT DETAIL!
But, in New York these disasters in "fly over counrty" are simply
handled as "market events."
Alas, I am completely the captive of the NATIONAL PAPERS. But, what
might I be thinking if I read ONLY the local press, or the major
regionals?
MANY, PERHAPS MOST, PEOPLE READ ONLY THE LOCAL PRESS, IF THEY
READ ANYTHING AT ALL!
I HAVE A HUNCH THAT THE VIEW FROM MAIN STREET IS MUCH MORE DISMAL NOW
THAN THE VIEW FROM WALL STREET;
OR EVEN THE MID-TOWN MANHATTAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES LIBERALS!
THIS IS SOMETHING TO BEAR IN MIND. BECAUSE THE MAJOR MEDIA DO NOT
REALLY CONTROL EVERYTHING THE PUBLIC SEES, HEARS AND READS.
THE LOCAL MEDIA "SPIN" LOOKS A LOT DIFFERENT SOMETIMES.
AND, ALAS;
How many people actually read the WSJ editorial page; or the NYT's op-
eds, or Krugman, and Friedman and Dowd?
IN TRUTH?
.......NOT VERY MANY.
And, does any of this have a chance against drive time TALK RADIO!
Saturday, January 31, 2004
SHORT TAKES FOR JANUARY
SAD AND LONELY AIRPORTS:
America's Airports are such sad and lonely places these days.
Even when they're crowded--which they usually aren't.
Indeed! What could be more sad and more lonely than standing in line with 300 other people to get your shoes x-rayed!
And, Americans are all so Fat and Frumpy looking now.
Shouting into their stupid cell phones. Americans are starting to dress and act like Russians in the Soviet days! Egad....., is American Decline now a fashion statement too?
And all that costing cutting and airline bankruptcy talk is scary. These days a high class airline is one that is going broke SLOWER than the others.
Many airports are starting to look run-down and frayed around the edges too. And, all that security has really taken the fun out of it. How I long for the old days. The Friendly Skys. Ya know?
THE CHECKS IN THE MAIL:
Those seeking to have influence in D.C. after November, had been have their checks in the mail to John Kerry for President, A.S.A.P.
Why?
Well, even the Elites are starting to slowly abandon Dubya & Chums!
And, the Republican "Bubba Vote" is in flux because of the economy.
And remember, with the country "evenly divided," all Kerry has to do is peel off 3 to 5 percent of the Southern Bubba Vote to achieve a LANDSLIDE VICTORY.
The real question for '04 is will the Democrats take the Kongress too? Health Care, Jobs, Pensions, and WHAT NEXT IN IRAQ are the REAL issues.
Dubya has no credible program on the first three! And, he's still trying to JUSTIFY THE WAR! NOT CONCLUDE THE PEACE! So, Ground Hog Day? Pitiful really.
And, it's kinda sad to watch the Dubya Voters struggling with themselves over this election.
They seem to be saying:
"If I'm not a Republican, does that mean I'm pro-gay? How can I vote for a party that has so many Blacks in it? What will people say about me at the bar down at the golf course. Does it mean I'm now officially a failure?"
COME OUT OF THE CLOSET DUBYA VOTERS! I GIVE YOU PERMISSION! REALLY!
AND, THAT'S WHAT KERRY HAS TO DO!
SIMPLY TO GIVE OLD DUBYA VOTERS "PERMISSION" TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC!
BECAUSE, IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT YOU'RE PRO-BLACK, PRO-GAY, OR LOOKING FOR A GOVERNMENT WELFARE CHECK!
IT MEANS YOU WANT TO HAVE A VIABLE US ECONOMY LEFT FOR YOUR KIDS TO LIVE AND WORK IN!! THAT'S ALL!
The alternative?
Perhaps, give your kids those Chinese lessons that mega-investor, Jim Rogers has suggested!
CISCO EARNINGS:
Are there that many new routers and switches being sold? I don't think so.
These pieces of IT heavy equipment are like CAT Bulldozers. It only takes a few to move a lot of dirt!
Perhaps Cisco will do well on it's "investments" instead?
Who isn't these days!
America's Airports are such sad and lonely places these days.
Even when they're crowded--which they usually aren't.
Indeed! What could be more sad and more lonely than standing in line with 300 other people to get your shoes x-rayed!
And, Americans are all so Fat and Frumpy looking now.
Shouting into their stupid cell phones. Americans are starting to dress and act like Russians in the Soviet days! Egad....., is American Decline now a fashion statement too?
And all that costing cutting and airline bankruptcy talk is scary. These days a high class airline is one that is going broke SLOWER than the others.
Many airports are starting to look run-down and frayed around the edges too. And, all that security has really taken the fun out of it. How I long for the old days. The Friendly Skys. Ya know?
THE CHECKS IN THE MAIL:
Those seeking to have influence in D.C. after November, had been have their checks in the mail to John Kerry for President, A.S.A.P.
Why?
Well, even the Elites are starting to slowly abandon Dubya & Chums!
And, the Republican "Bubba Vote" is in flux because of the economy.
And remember, with the country "evenly divided," all Kerry has to do is peel off 3 to 5 percent of the Southern Bubba Vote to achieve a LANDSLIDE VICTORY.
The real question for '04 is will the Democrats take the Kongress too? Health Care, Jobs, Pensions, and WHAT NEXT IN IRAQ are the REAL issues.
Dubya has no credible program on the first three! And, he's still trying to JUSTIFY THE WAR! NOT CONCLUDE THE PEACE! So, Ground Hog Day? Pitiful really.
And, it's kinda sad to watch the Dubya Voters struggling with themselves over this election.
They seem to be saying:
"If I'm not a Republican, does that mean I'm pro-gay? How can I vote for a party that has so many Blacks in it? What will people say about me at the bar down at the golf course. Does it mean I'm now officially a failure?"
COME OUT OF THE CLOSET DUBYA VOTERS! I GIVE YOU PERMISSION! REALLY!
AND, THAT'S WHAT KERRY HAS TO DO!
SIMPLY TO GIVE OLD DUBYA VOTERS "PERMISSION" TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC!
BECAUSE, IT DOESN'T MEAN THAT YOU'RE PRO-BLACK, PRO-GAY, OR LOOKING FOR A GOVERNMENT WELFARE CHECK!
IT MEANS YOU WANT TO HAVE A VIABLE US ECONOMY LEFT FOR YOUR KIDS TO LIVE AND WORK IN!! THAT'S ALL!
The alternative?
Perhaps, give your kids those Chinese lessons that mega-investor, Jim Rogers has suggested!
CISCO EARNINGS:
Are there that many new routers and switches being sold? I don't think so.
These pieces of IT heavy equipment are like CAT Bulldozers. It only takes a few to move a lot of dirt!
Perhaps Cisco will do well on it's "investments" instead?
Who isn't these days!
Friday, January 30, 2004
GREENSPAN'S BUBBLE? .............to be continued
Today's lower than expected GDP has pundits rightly finding that the
Fed will not raise rates anytime soon.
And, indeed, if the Fed waits "til jobs come back."
THEY MIGHT WAIT FOREVER! BECAUSE;
THE US ECONOMY HAS A "STRUCTURAL PROBLEM" ABOUT JOBS;
THEY ARE ALL MOVING OFF SHORE!
SO VERY LIKELY ANY "STIMULUS" WILL JUST INCREASE THE TRADE DEFICIT,
BUT DO NOTHING AT ALL ABOUT THE NOW "STRUCTURAL" JOBS PROBLEM.
Indeed, a cynic might say that the low rates and easy money are just
making the EXPORT OF JOBS EASIER! AND, THEY WOULD BE RIGHT.
THE ONLY HOPE FOR THE US ECONOMY IS TOO KEEP THE CURRENT STOCK BUBBLE
GOING BY THE CONSTANT DEVALUATION OF THE DOLLAR!
IN EFFECT REAL ESTATE AND PAPER ASSETS (LIKE STOCKS) HAVE BECOME:
DEVALUATION HEDGES!!
AND NOT REALLY HEDGES ON INFLATION!! YET!
Of course, this is an anomaly because you can't devalue FOREVER
without causing INFLATION SOONER OR LATER......
BUT! YOU CAN DO IT FOR A LONG TIME.
IF! IF! IF YOU HAVE THE COOPERATION OF OTHER CENTRAL BANKS!
SO FAR, ASIAN BANKS ARE GOING ALONG WITH GREENSPAN'S PROGRAM, NO
MATTER HOW LUNATIC IT MIGHT BE IN THE LONG RUN.
THE ECB IS NOT COOPERATING.
AND THEY ARE APPARENTLY WILLING TO PAY THE PRICE FOR HAVING A SOUND
CURRENCY!
AN ADMIRABLE CHARACTERISTIC FOR A "NEW MONETARY UNIT" LIKE THE EURO!
Don't Ya think?
AND, GREENSPAN'S NEW BUBBLE? ......to be continued!
Of course!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Fed will not raise rates anytime soon.
And, indeed, if the Fed waits "til jobs come back."
THEY MIGHT WAIT FOREVER! BECAUSE;
THE US ECONOMY HAS A "STRUCTURAL PROBLEM" ABOUT JOBS;
THEY ARE ALL MOVING OFF SHORE!
SO VERY LIKELY ANY "STIMULUS" WILL JUST INCREASE THE TRADE DEFICIT,
BUT DO NOTHING AT ALL ABOUT THE NOW "STRUCTURAL" JOBS PROBLEM.
Indeed, a cynic might say that the low rates and easy money are just
making the EXPORT OF JOBS EASIER! AND, THEY WOULD BE RIGHT.
THE ONLY HOPE FOR THE US ECONOMY IS TOO KEEP THE CURRENT STOCK BUBBLE
GOING BY THE CONSTANT DEVALUATION OF THE DOLLAR!
IN EFFECT REAL ESTATE AND PAPER ASSETS (LIKE STOCKS) HAVE BECOME:
DEVALUATION HEDGES!!
AND NOT REALLY HEDGES ON INFLATION!! YET!
Of course, this is an anomaly because you can't devalue FOREVER
without causing INFLATION SOONER OR LATER......
BUT! YOU CAN DO IT FOR A LONG TIME.
IF! IF! IF YOU HAVE THE COOPERATION OF OTHER CENTRAL BANKS!
SO FAR, ASIAN BANKS ARE GOING ALONG WITH GREENSPAN'S PROGRAM, NO
MATTER HOW LUNATIC IT MIGHT BE IN THE LONG RUN.
THE ECB IS NOT COOPERATING.
AND THEY ARE APPARENTLY WILLING TO PAY THE PRICE FOR HAVING A SOUND
CURRENCY!
AN ADMIRABLE CHARACTERISTIC FOR A "NEW MONETARY UNIT" LIKE THE EURO!
Don't Ya think?
AND, GREENSPAN'S NEW BUBBLE? ......to be continued!
Of course!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Thursday, January 29, 2004
GOLD FALLS ON NEWS OF RECORD US BUDGET DEFICIT!
The plunge in gold today smacked of CENTRAL BANK THEATRICS!
AND, WITH THE US TRADE AND BUDGET DEFICITS HEADING FOR RECORDS YET!
MR G's PROMISE TO BE "PATIENT" ABOUT RAISING RATES, WAS, WELL,....NOT THE STUFF OF A SEA CHANGE IN THE MARKETS.
The dollar still has HUGE problems; these are not even beginning to be addressed at any level.
My hunch is that once the dust settles, EVERYTHING goes back to the day before yesterday.
THAT MEANS GOLD AND TECH COULD BE IN "BUY THE DIP" MODE!
LET'S WAIT TO PULL THE PANIC BUTTON UNTIL MR G SHOWS US THE FIRST 1/4 POINT RAISE IN RATES.
ODDLY, I DONT THINK HE WILL! IF....HE CAN KEEP GETTING "JAWBONE" ACTION LIKE YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
Still, by the end of the day today the market seemed to be "reverting back" to the old bubble mentality we had only 48 hours ago.
So;
GOLD FALLS ON NEWS OF GIANT US BUDGET DEFICIT?
YEAH, right......
AND, WITH THE US TRADE AND BUDGET DEFICITS HEADING FOR RECORDS YET!
MR G's PROMISE TO BE "PATIENT" ABOUT RAISING RATES, WAS, WELL,....NOT THE STUFF OF A SEA CHANGE IN THE MARKETS.
The dollar still has HUGE problems; these are not even beginning to be addressed at any level.
My hunch is that once the dust settles, EVERYTHING goes back to the day before yesterday.
THAT MEANS GOLD AND TECH COULD BE IN "BUY THE DIP" MODE!
LET'S WAIT TO PULL THE PANIC BUTTON UNTIL MR G SHOWS US THE FIRST 1/4 POINT RAISE IN RATES.
ODDLY, I DONT THINK HE WILL! IF....HE CAN KEEP GETTING "JAWBONE" ACTION LIKE YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
Still, by the end of the day today the market seemed to be "reverting back" to the old bubble mentality we had only 48 hours ago.
So;
GOLD FALLS ON NEWS OF GIANT US BUDGET DEFICIT?
YEAH, right......
END OF AN ERA, OR NO NEW MOJO?
Somehow yesterday had an END OF AN ERA feel about it.
Consider:
The FIRST GREENSPAN BUBBLE was based on the Internet and the "New
Economy." When that fizzled, we had the crash.
The SECOND GREENSPAN BUBBLE was based on ULTRA-LOW INTEREST RATES.
And now that is becoming a problem. First the Dollar is down big,
and the speculative parts of the markets are up big. Additionally,
commodity prices and gold have risen.
SO, IS THE ULTRA-LOW RATES MOJO GOING THE WAY OF THE "NEW ECONOMY?"
Well, THAT is the question isn't it.
And the real kicker is that all of this trouble is occuring during an
election year. And, it is very possible that Wall Streets Favorite,
Dubya, will not win!
What's next?
LOWER DOLLAR! LOWER STOCKS! LOWER BONDS!
HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT! HIGER INTEREST RATES!
AND A DEMOCRAT IN THE WHITE HOUSE!
Like I said: This feels like the early days of THE END OF AN ERA!
BECAUSE, WHAT'S THE "NEXT MOJO?" I don't see it yet.
Consider:
The FIRST GREENSPAN BUBBLE was based on the Internet and the "New
Economy." When that fizzled, we had the crash.
The SECOND GREENSPAN BUBBLE was based on ULTRA-LOW INTEREST RATES.
And now that is becoming a problem. First the Dollar is down big,
and the speculative parts of the markets are up big. Additionally,
commodity prices and gold have risen.
SO, IS THE ULTRA-LOW RATES MOJO GOING THE WAY OF THE "NEW ECONOMY?"
Well, THAT is the question isn't it.
And the real kicker is that all of this trouble is occuring during an
election year. And, it is very possible that Wall Streets Favorite,
Dubya, will not win!
What's next?
LOWER DOLLAR! LOWER STOCKS! LOWER BONDS!
HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT! HIGER INTEREST RATES!
AND A DEMOCRAT IN THE WHITE HOUSE!
Like I said: This feels like the early days of THE END OF AN ERA!
BECAUSE, WHAT'S THE "NEXT MOJO?" I don't see it yet.
FED PATIENT, MARKET NOT!
Greenspan may be patient, but the market is NOT!
JUST IMAGINE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE FED KICKS RATES UP 1/4 PERCENT!
Clearly, the last year has been a little nuts on Wall Street. With Greenspan desperately tying to revive the Bubble.
AND, NOW THAT HE HAS? HE WANTS TO SLOW IT DOWN!
Not that he actually has done anything to slow it down, but the MERE POSSIBLITY that he "might" raise rates off their 45 year lows was enough to crash the markets.
CLEARLY, THE ONE PERCENT SOLUTION HAS BECOME TOXIC TO THE US AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIES!
AND THAT, GENTLE READER, IS WHAT THE PUNDITS HAVE MISSED TODAY!
With the NAZZ up 50% and more, WHY DOES THE ECONOMY NEED ONE PERCENT RATES?
FOR MORE SPECULATION! WELL, THAT IS NOT A LEGIMATE FUNCTION FOR A CENTRAL BANK.
Indeed, the COLLAPSING DOLLAR may have been the REAL REASON for the Fed's action yesterday. Remember, the Japanese did indicate they could not defend the dollar forever! And, THE JAPANESE DEFENSE seemed to be the sine quo non for market speculators lately.
Additionally, if the Fed waits "till jobs comeback" the NAZZ could be obiting Neptune! And jobs might NEVER come back, despite THE NEW TECH BUBBLE!
AND, THE MARKET CONSECQUENCES OF FORCING THE "BOND CARRY TRADE" TO GO FOR 60 TO ZERO IN ONE MONTH--ARE DICEY AT BEST!
NET-NET THIS FED CHANGE WAS LOGICAL AND LONG, LONG OVERDUE!
The real question is not WHY NOW! But, Why did the Fed wait so long!
PERHAPS "LOVE IS BLIND."
AND, WE ALL KNOW HOW MUCH MR G LOVES HIS WALL STREET BUBBLES!
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20040128/default.htm
Greenspan may be patient, but the market is NOT!
JUST IMAGINE WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE FED KICKS RATES UP 1/4 PERCENT!
Clearly, the last year has been a little nuts on Wall Street. With Greenspan desperately tying to revive the Bubble.
AND, NOW THAT HE HAS? HE WANTS TO SLOW IT DOWN!
Not that he actually has done anything to slow it down, but the MERE POSSIBLITY that he "might" raise rates off their 45 year lows was enough to crash the markets.
CLEARLY, THE ONE PERCENT SOLUTION HAS BECOME TOXIC TO THE US AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIES!
AND THAT, GENTLE READER, IS WHAT THE PUNDITS HAVE MISSED TODAY!
With the NAZZ up 50% and more, WHY DOES THE ECONOMY NEED ONE PERCENT RATES?
FOR MORE SPECULATION! WELL, THAT IS NOT A LEGIMATE FUNCTION FOR A CENTRAL BANK.
Indeed, the COLLAPSING DOLLAR may have been the REAL REASON for the Fed's action yesterday. Remember, the Japanese did indicate they could not defend the dollar forever! And, THE JAPANESE DEFENSE seemed to be the sine quo non for market speculators lately.
Additionally, if the Fed waits "till jobs comeback" the NAZZ could be obiting Neptune! And jobs might NEVER come back, despite THE NEW TECH BUBBLE!
AND, THE MARKET CONSECQUENCES OF FORCING THE "BOND CARRY TRADE" TO GO FOR 60 TO ZERO IN ONE MONTH--ARE DICEY AT BEST!
NET-NET THIS FED CHANGE WAS LOGICAL AND LONG, LONG OVERDUE!
The real question is not WHY NOW! But, Why did the Fed wait so long!
PERHAPS "LOVE IS BLIND."
AND, WE ALL KNOW HOW MUCH MR G LOVES HIS WALL STREET BUBBLES!
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/monetary/2004/20040128/default.htm
Tuesday, January 27, 2004
WELCOME TO THE NEW GLOOM AND DOOM CLUB!
Yahoo has virtually kicked us out of groups, so I'm bring the GOOD OLD GLOOM AND DOOM CLUB TO BLOGGER!
Bookmark this page, and come back daily for the market commentary you've come to know and loathe at our old board!
Always here 24.7.366! Who knows maybe someday I'll spring for an IP address and just tell these people to F___off!
Yahoo has virtually kicked us out of groups, so I'm bring the GOOD OLD GLOOM AND DOOM CLUB TO BLOGGER!
Bookmark this page, and come back daily for the market commentary you've come to know and loathe at our old board!
Always here 24.7.366! Who knows maybe someday I'll spring for an IP address and just tell these people to F___off!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)