Wednesday, January 25, 2006
WORLDS SMALLEST FISH...
But is it really a fish...? And can you eat them...and how many can you fit in a sandwich...?
MIDDLE EAST? COULD PEACE BREAK OUT??
Israel's new "temp" P.M. seems to be saying that the RoadMap is A-KO with him...
And Hamas is ALREADY "making nice" with the International community and news media..
So wassup...? Sounds like Peace could break out at any minute...!
And consider:
Will any "new leader" in Israel be able to attack Palestinians without drawing huge criticism from the International community... Who will defend him...Dubya? Oh please....
SHARON WAS A ONE OF A KIND...
THEY "BROKE THE MOLD" AFTER THEY MADE HIM...AND THAT COULD BE THE BEST NEWS WE'VE HAD IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN YEARS!!
And Hamas is ALREADY "making nice" with the International community and news media..
So wassup...? Sounds like Peace could break out at any minute...!
And consider:
Will any "new leader" in Israel be able to attack Palestinians without drawing huge criticism from the International community... Who will defend him...Dubya? Oh please....
SHARON WAS A ONE OF A KIND...
THEY "BROKE THE MOLD" AFTER THEY MADE HIM...AND THAT COULD BE THE BEST NEWS WE'VE HAD IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN YEARS!!
MARKETS TREAD WATER...BUT GOLD IS UP
Hey, sometimes treading water is a good thing....
Still any real move by the market seems problematic. This just doesn't feel like a rally year....
Rally about what...? Alito? Bernanke? Iraq? Iran? Hamas? Bankruptcy Reforms?
Sometimes treading water is a very good thing indeed...
Still any real move by the market seems problematic. This just doesn't feel like a rally year....
Rally about what...? Alito? Bernanke? Iraq? Iran? Hamas? Bankruptcy Reforms?
Sometimes treading water is a very good thing indeed...
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
TORIES WIN IN CANADA...BUT CAN THEY RULE??
Are the Conservatives merely "place holders" until the liberal/progressive bloc cleans up it's act... Read about it HERE....
Well whatever...it makes a good sound bite for Dubya & Co...just for today.
Well whatever...it makes a good sound bite for Dubya & Co...just for today.
3M....POST IT NOTES....
The quote on 3M is always...
"3M, which makes Post-It notes and Scotch tape among other products, said its fourth-quarter profit rose 6 percent as strong results from its industrial and electronics businesses helped boost sales. The stock fell $1.02 to $74.68."
But is that all they do...?
Can you actually make money selling tape and post its....? Alas, if that is all thats left of American industry...we are in trouble...!
"3M, which makes Post-It notes and Scotch tape among other products, said its fourth-quarter profit rose 6 percent as strong results from its industrial and electronics businesses helped boost sales. The stock fell $1.02 to $74.68."
But is that all they do...?
Can you actually make money selling tape and post its....? Alas, if that is all thats left of American industry...we are in trouble...!
Monday, January 23, 2006
FOLLOW THE CANADIAN ELECTIONS HERE
Oh Canada....the Land of Single Payer Health Insurance!
Will we ever get there...or will we just keep closing down capacity and moving to China...
But Hey! Moving to China is "cheaper" as far as Washington and Wall Street are concerned!
And that, gentle reader, is sort of the "problem" isn't it?
Will we ever get there...or will we just keep closing down capacity and moving to China...
But Hey! Moving to China is "cheaper" as far as Washington and Wall Street are concerned!
And that, gentle reader, is sort of the "problem" isn't it?
GOLD UP...OIL DOWN MERELY PENNIES!
Not the stuff of Big "Bullness" as Marketwatch calls it...
Bullness? Oh Please....! High gas prices will kill this economy if they persist all year...
Bullness? Oh Please....! High gas prices will kill this economy if they persist all year...
MARKETS TEPID RESPONSE TO FORD CLOSURES
Alas, not the kind of JOY you'd expect after a big selloff....
IRAN YANKS DUBYA'S CHAIN...
And why not? ...
They're in the cat bird seat vis-a-vis Dubya on the Iraq situation...all because of the incompetence of Washington in NOT having a REAL middle east policy; and not merely something Likud cooked up for us...!
They're in the cat bird seat vis-a-vis Dubya on the Iraq situation...all because of the incompetence of Washington in NOT having a REAL middle east policy; and not merely something Likud cooked up for us...!
TIME TO GET REAL ABOUT HAMAS...
It may be time for the US and Israel to "get real" about Hamas...
The occupation has caused huge disruption in Palestinian Society...and Hamas has filled the void for many in the occupied territories.
To insist that Hamas can NEVER be dealt with is to prolong the conflict...and make both Israel and the US more vulnerable to attack.
The Days of Sharon are over...it's time for a clean slate in the middle east. The US simply can not "outsource" it's middle east policy to Israel anymore. It's been a disaster... The US simply can not afford the "Likud Agenda" in Palestine...and what it will take in the middle east as a whole.
The Iran "crisis" is essentially a manufactured crisis caused by the emboldening of Iranian leadership because of the disasterous invasion of Iraq by Dubya and the Neocons.
Now Israel wants Iran gone too... But can the US afford another disasterour war in Muslim lands...?
Isn't Afganhistan and Iraq a big enough stage for Muslims to see the "hidden agenda" of the west that they so readily believe in...?
The occupation has caused huge disruption in Palestinian Society...and Hamas has filled the void for many in the occupied territories.
To insist that Hamas can NEVER be dealt with is to prolong the conflict...and make both Israel and the US more vulnerable to attack.
The Days of Sharon are over...it's time for a clean slate in the middle east. The US simply can not "outsource" it's middle east policy to Israel anymore. It's been a disaster... The US simply can not afford the "Likud Agenda" in Palestine...and what it will take in the middle east as a whole.
The Iran "crisis" is essentially a manufactured crisis caused by the emboldening of Iranian leadership because of the disasterous invasion of Iraq by Dubya and the Neocons.
Now Israel wants Iran gone too... But can the US afford another disasterour war in Muslim lands...?
Isn't Afganhistan and Iraq a big enough stage for Muslims to see the "hidden agenda" of the west that they so readily believe in...?
Saturday, January 21, 2006
MARKET CHART PATTERN ODD...
The "Big SellOff" was rather orderly..TOO ORDERLY....
which makes me think it was planned or planned for as inevitable... See Chart. This market was "eased down" with no sharp rally attempts....
Monday could be interesting... The usual reaction is to go up based on "oversold" conditions.
But this could be different...but I doubt it... Everyone has known that the rally was fake for some time now. It was merely an attempt to exploit supposed "seasonal factors"... Indeed the January Rally has been coming earlier and earlier every year as speculators seek to jump in first and fleece the 401k suckers.
The problem is that if things don't go "right" on Monday...and there could be geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
There could be PANIC SELLING....WHICH THIS FRIDAY WAS NOT!
which makes me think it was planned or planned for as inevitable... See Chart. This market was "eased down" with no sharp rally attempts....
Monday could be interesting... The usual reaction is to go up based on "oversold" conditions.
But this could be different...but I doubt it... Everyone has known that the rally was fake for some time now. It was merely an attempt to exploit supposed "seasonal factors"... Indeed the January Rally has been coming earlier and earlier every year as speculators seek to jump in first and fleece the 401k suckers.
The problem is that if things don't go "right" on Monday...and there could be geopolitical and macroeconomic factors.
There could be PANIC SELLING....WHICH THIS FRIDAY WAS NOT!
Thursday, January 19, 2006
GOLD SURPRISINGLY STRONG...
OK...Gold is getting a little scary...
Why so strong... Why such convincing bouncebacks...?
And gas is going up at the pump again... Any problems with Iran could put gas above $3 again...and THAT would pretty much hand the Kongress over to the Democrats in November...
The US economy is "secretly" weak.... The only healthy parts are in the high income area.
So I would expect a continuation of weak retailing...and poor sales by corporations...and a lot of "missed numbers" going forward.
This market is runnin on fumes... And a lot of strange things are happening....
LIKE THE SURPRISINGLY STRONG GOLD MARKETS...!
Why so strong... Why such convincing bouncebacks...?
And gas is going up at the pump again... Any problems with Iran could put gas above $3 again...and THAT would pretty much hand the Kongress over to the Democrats in November...
The US economy is "secretly" weak.... The only healthy parts are in the high income area.
So I would expect a continuation of weak retailing...and poor sales by corporations...and a lot of "missed numbers" going forward.
This market is runnin on fumes... And a lot of strange things are happening....
LIKE THE SURPRISINGLY STRONG GOLD MARKETS...!
THE DEATH OF RETAILING....
Coming soon....American consumer having a delayed reaction to high gas prices..... Stay tuned.
OSAMA AND CIVIL LIBERTIES...
The notion of "living in fear" is something that Americans
will have to get used to, IF they want their civil liberties preserved.
The move by Busy/Cheney & Co to deprive Americans of their rights in the name of "getting tough" on terrorists...is completely misplaced.
In truth, life is unpredictable... But if there are "bad guys" out there the government should go after them just as they do with murderers, rapists and drug dealers...
Somehow prior to 911 we "managed" to capture felons WITHOUT giving up our constitutional rights...and the same can be done with Osama & Co.
Where the Bush administration went HORRIBLY wrong was by phrasing 911 as a "war."
Wars are against nation states. Wars have opposing armies...with generals and uniforms.
What Osama requires is POLICE ACTION... Historically something similar happen with the Barbary Pirates...that's when the marines when to the "shores of Tripoli" to clean out the lawlessness in that region...
Something like that is needed with Osama.
Clearly, Dubya's notion that an "invasion" was necessary has only created more problems! And big ones...since Iraq and Saddam, while perhaps "evil," where FAR REMOVED from Osama & Co.
Indeed Dubya's mistaken War has helped Osama in more ways than ever dreamed possible! For example, Dubya has "empowered" the Iranians, and their Iraqi fundamentalist Shia co-religionists!
And Dubya has make a "hero" out of Osama to most of the Muslim world...
What the world needs is better tracking of radicals, and more cooperation between government policing agencies...
NOT MORE "REGIME CHANGE" WHICH ONLY RADICALIZES MUSLIMS MORE AND MORE AGAINST THE WEST!
The US government "should be" able to walk and chew gum at the same time...although with Dubya everything is "problematic...!"
We can fight crime, domestically organized or foreign based, and preserve civil rights...
The fight against criminal Islamists should not impair American's civil rights...and Dubya's recent illegal "Nixonian" dragnet against ALL Americans must be stopped immediately...
Congress should get busy on this before the election...
will have to get used to, IF they want their civil liberties preserved.
The move by Busy/Cheney & Co to deprive Americans of their rights in the name of "getting tough" on terrorists...is completely misplaced.
In truth, life is unpredictable... But if there are "bad guys" out there the government should go after them just as they do with murderers, rapists and drug dealers...
Somehow prior to 911 we "managed" to capture felons WITHOUT giving up our constitutional rights...and the same can be done with Osama & Co.
Where the Bush administration went HORRIBLY wrong was by phrasing 911 as a "war."
Wars are against nation states. Wars have opposing armies...with generals and uniforms.
What Osama requires is POLICE ACTION... Historically something similar happen with the Barbary Pirates...that's when the marines when to the "shores of Tripoli" to clean out the lawlessness in that region...
Something like that is needed with Osama.
Clearly, Dubya's notion that an "invasion" was necessary has only created more problems! And big ones...since Iraq and Saddam, while perhaps "evil," where FAR REMOVED from Osama & Co.
Indeed Dubya's mistaken War has helped Osama in more ways than ever dreamed possible! For example, Dubya has "empowered" the Iranians, and their Iraqi fundamentalist Shia co-religionists!
And Dubya has make a "hero" out of Osama to most of the Muslim world...
What the world needs is better tracking of radicals, and more cooperation between government policing agencies...
NOT MORE "REGIME CHANGE" WHICH ONLY RADICALIZES MUSLIMS MORE AND MORE AGAINST THE WEST!
The US government "should be" able to walk and chew gum at the same time...although with Dubya everything is "problematic...!"
We can fight crime, domestically organized or foreign based, and preserve civil rights...
The fight against criminal Islamists should not impair American's civil rights...and Dubya's recent illegal "Nixonian" dragnet against ALL Americans must be stopped immediately...
Congress should get busy on this before the election...
MARKETS RISE DESPITE OSAMA'S THREATS...
Osama is one scary guy... Just when you thought he was sick and dying in some cave in Pakistan...
Now comes this new threat that he's "cooking up something" but it's going to take time...? Hmmm....?
The oriental mind is so unscrewable to many Americans and westerners.
Why the lack of action inside the US...?
I've always thought it was because Osama didn't want to disrupt the lives of the Muslims in America, who have businesses and professional practices and other investments...
Because surely the "next attack" could create a backlash against ALL Muslims and ALL Arabs...no matter how peaceful they are...or claim to be.
But, is Osama the type of guy who cares about American Muslims...? Perhaps not.
I have also assumed that Osama was ONLY interested in the Empire of Islam...and that the "West" was merely a "fly in the ointment," and Osama would concentrate on Muslim countries and their political situations...
And not "go after" the west per se...as long as "we" stayed out of "his backyard." This could still be the case.... But "we" are in his backyard now...and even up to our necks in Muslim politics...
Why else would middle class Americans be discussing "head scarfs" and the like? The west has it's nose up Muslims' asses in more ways than we did prior to 911! And that could be problematic....
I have also discounted the notion that Osama "wants to convert" the west to Islam...even though some Muslim fanatics seems to harbor this pipe dream...with their Jihadist thinking.
So these new threats by Osama are interesting... And scary...because the "next one" is something we'd all like to forget...
Now comes this new threat that he's "cooking up something" but it's going to take time...? Hmmm....?
The oriental mind is so unscrewable to many Americans and westerners.
Why the lack of action inside the US...?
I've always thought it was because Osama didn't want to disrupt the lives of the Muslims in America, who have businesses and professional practices and other investments...
Because surely the "next attack" could create a backlash against ALL Muslims and ALL Arabs...no matter how peaceful they are...or claim to be.
But, is Osama the type of guy who cares about American Muslims...? Perhaps not.
I have also assumed that Osama was ONLY interested in the Empire of Islam...and that the "West" was merely a "fly in the ointment," and Osama would concentrate on Muslim countries and their political situations...
And not "go after" the west per se...as long as "we" stayed out of "his backyard." This could still be the case.... But "we" are in his backyard now...and even up to our necks in Muslim politics...
Why else would middle class Americans be discussing "head scarfs" and the like? The west has it's nose up Muslims' asses in more ways than we did prior to 911! And that could be problematic....
I have also discounted the notion that Osama "wants to convert" the west to Islam...even though some Muslim fanatics seems to harbor this pipe dream...with their Jihadist thinking.
So these new threats by Osama are interesting... And scary...because the "next one" is something we'd all like to forget...
GOLD JUMPS BACK UP....
Very curious the way gold keeps jumping back up after a selloff...
Maybe asset inflation is still inflation nonetheless....?
Maybe asset inflation is still inflation nonetheless....?
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
SUPREMES PUNT ON ABORTION
The Republicans don't want to touch abortion! Sorry Bubba...you was duped!
MARKETS GROW MORE CHAOTIC....
The markets are impossible to figure now...
Stocks down. Bonds up. Gold down. Dollar up.... Clearly the market masters are doing "what's needed" to stabilized the markets...but the macroeconomic numbers just don't lie and the entire system seems to be a house of cards looking for the point of instability that causes the final collapse...
US companies, like Ford, are downsizing big time... But is that part of the problem...or is it part of the solution...?
The big rally at the beginning of the year was touted as a sure sign that all was well... But I called it a sucker rally all along... Now the numbers aren't coming in as expected and all Hell is breaking lose.
Clearly all that "sooner or later" stuff that Greenspan used to warn about...after supporting everything that Wall Street wanted...is coming to pass...and a lot sooner than anyone expected.
There will be attempts to "control" things... Gold will be driven down hard. The dollar will be bought. But at this point there are just too few things that can be done...
Note well. Gold has been rising DURING a period of FED rate hikes! That's not supposed to happen...
And the stock market is nearing multiyear highs...on the flimsiest touting of the market masters...
A chaotic market is a market that can lurch either way...but this one appears to be heading down...
Stocks down. Bonds up. Gold down. Dollar up.... Clearly the market masters are doing "what's needed" to stabilized the markets...but the macroeconomic numbers just don't lie and the entire system seems to be a house of cards looking for the point of instability that causes the final collapse...
US companies, like Ford, are downsizing big time... But is that part of the problem...or is it part of the solution...?
The big rally at the beginning of the year was touted as a sure sign that all was well... But I called it a sucker rally all along... Now the numbers aren't coming in as expected and all Hell is breaking lose.
Clearly all that "sooner or later" stuff that Greenspan used to warn about...after supporting everything that Wall Street wanted...is coming to pass...and a lot sooner than anyone expected.
There will be attempts to "control" things... Gold will be driven down hard. The dollar will be bought. But at this point there are just too few things that can be done...
Note well. Gold has been rising DURING a period of FED rate hikes! That's not supposed to happen...
And the stock market is nearing multiyear highs...on the flimsiest touting of the market masters...
A chaotic market is a market that can lurch either way...but this one appears to be heading down...
YAHOO FALLS...TECH BUBBLE DOOMED?
If Yahoo falls...can Google be far behind?
One of these days Google is going to fall $80 in one day...and SHORTLY thereafter everyone will get tired of trying to "get even" and the bail out will start in earnest...
This tech rally of December and early January had all the hallmarks of a SUCKER RALLY as I noted here repeatedly since New Years... And now...? It appears that I was right...(again).
OFTEN EARLY...SELDOM WRONG. MACROECONOMIC THINKING RULES!
One of these days Google is going to fall $80 in one day...and SHORTLY thereafter everyone will get tired of trying to "get even" and the bail out will start in earnest...
This tech rally of December and early January had all the hallmarks of a SUCKER RALLY as I noted here repeatedly since New Years... And now...? It appears that I was right...(again).
OFTEN EARLY...SELDOM WRONG. MACROECONOMIC THINKING RULES!
DAFFYNITIONS....
Compassionate Conservative: A Republican who believes that plastic coathangers are safer for performing abortions.
THE END OF GLOBALISM....?
The Lurch Left that has been seen in Latin America...
and many parts of Europe could be the second shoe falling after the "end" of the Cold War...
With the fall of Soviet Communism there was the belief that Communism was dead and that Capitalism...and in particular Global Capitalism...was the winner.
Well, then came China...
China is arguably the most successful and fastest growing economy in the world today... And it's also a Communist country...!
It is quite possible that Communism China style has in fact "won" the Cold War...after all.
The Triumph of Global Capital that was proclaimed in 1989 may have been premature.
The US economy is totally dependant on the generosity of strangers...like China and Japan...among others.
Even the Democrats dare not offend the all mighty bond markets...hence their odd silence on "economic issues" and the devolution of American Politics into the "social" arenas of abortion and gay rights etc...
Now there is great instability in the middle east from Iraq to Iran...and on to Pakistan. Oil is increasingly a problem for the west...even as the East eats up more and more energy every year.
The prospects for globalism in 2006 seem to be grim... More war. More debt. More instability seem inevitable... And as pensions and jobs disappear inside the US....?
THE END OF GLOBALISM COULD BE NEAR.
and many parts of Europe could be the second shoe falling after the "end" of the Cold War...
With the fall of Soviet Communism there was the belief that Communism was dead and that Capitalism...and in particular Global Capitalism...was the winner.
Well, then came China...
China is arguably the most successful and fastest growing economy in the world today... And it's also a Communist country...!
It is quite possible that Communism China style has in fact "won" the Cold War...after all.
The Triumph of Global Capital that was proclaimed in 1989 may have been premature.
The US economy is totally dependant on the generosity of strangers...like China and Japan...among others.
Even the Democrats dare not offend the all mighty bond markets...hence their odd silence on "economic issues" and the devolution of American Politics into the "social" arenas of abortion and gay rights etc...
Now there is great instability in the middle east from Iraq to Iran...and on to Pakistan. Oil is increasingly a problem for the west...even as the East eats up more and more energy every year.
The prospects for globalism in 2006 seem to be grim... More war. More debt. More instability seem inevitable... And as pensions and jobs disappear inside the US....?
THE END OF GLOBALISM COULD BE NEAR.
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
ROBERTS FLUNKS FIRST COURT OPINION...
I haven't had time to read the dissenting opinion to which Roberts subscribed...
But it could be interesting to see what's in store once Alito comes on the court.
Very likely, the Supreme Court will become a backwater of American Government...
Not the place that people look for guidence...but simply a "fact checker" court, stuck in the obscure past with no views whatsoever about the US in the 21st Century...
This makes Progressive victories at the State level even more important...
Now that the Roberts Court is opting for the "powdered wig" approach to the third branch of government.
So Sad really... Just write off the Supreme Court for the next 20 years...they are becoming useless.
But it could be interesting to see what's in store once Alito comes on the court.
Very likely, the Supreme Court will become a backwater of American Government...
Not the place that people look for guidence...but simply a "fact checker" court, stuck in the obscure past with no views whatsoever about the US in the 21st Century...
This makes Progressive victories at the State level even more important...
Now that the Roberts Court is opting for the "powdered wig" approach to the third branch of government.
So Sad really... Just write off the Supreme Court for the next 20 years...they are becoming useless.
FORGET ABOUT UN SANCTIONS ON IRAN...
Russia and the other allies of Iran
simply will not back the US sanctions proposal under any circumstances...
Russia got rolled by Dubya and Cheney on the Iraq affair and they are not going down that road again.
Dubya $ Co. have so few friends left in the international community that it's almost a matter of a US/Israel alliance going forward from here...and THAT while your key partner in Israel is a near vegetable!
And oil is through the roof today to boot! And the markets are finally getting real...
STUPIDITY AND UNILATERALISM HAVE CONSEQUENCES...NO WONDER SO MANY AMERICANS ARE SAYING THEY ARE "DEPRESSED" THESE DAYS!
simply will not back the US sanctions proposal under any circumstances...
Russia got rolled by Dubya and Cheney on the Iraq affair and they are not going down that road again.
Dubya $ Co. have so few friends left in the international community that it's almost a matter of a US/Israel alliance going forward from here...and THAT while your key partner in Israel is a near vegetable!
And oil is through the roof today to boot! And the markets are finally getting real...
STUPIDITY AND UNILATERALISM HAVE CONSEQUENCES...NO WONDER SO MANY AMERICANS ARE SAYING THEY ARE "DEPRESSED" THESE DAYS!
CHEERS FOR THE SUPREMES....ON SUICIDE LAW
As I predicted here...
the Supremes are letting the Oregon Assisted Suicide Law stand...
With this new conservative court--reformers and progressives are going to have to draft their laws AT THE STATE level...because of expected new restrictions on Congress.
And reform minded people must be very careful how these laws are written...
Just hire some good Constitutional lawyers to do the actual drafting...
STRICT CONSTRUCTION OF THE CONSTITUTION IS A "CAT" THAT CAN BE SKINNED WITH POLTICAL WILL POWER AND SOME STATE ELECTION VICTORIES...
the Supremes are letting the Oregon Assisted Suicide Law stand...
With this new conservative court--reformers and progressives are going to have to draft their laws AT THE STATE level...because of expected new restrictions on Congress.
And reform minded people must be very careful how these laws are written...
Just hire some good Constitutional lawyers to do the actual drafting...
STRICT CONSTRUCTION OF THE CONSTITUTION IS A "CAT" THAT CAN BE SKINNED WITH POLTICAL WILL POWER AND SOME STATE ELECTION VICTORIES...
ALBANIAN TERRORISTS OWN KOSOVO NOW...
News that Albanian Muslim terrorists,
who "ethnically cleansed" Kosovo of Christian Serbs, with the help of NATO, and now refuse to "rejoin" Serbia should not be surprising...
It's sort of like the US invading Iraq to put the pro-Iranian Shia in charge of Baghdad...
Do you see a pattern here...?
who "ethnically cleansed" Kosovo of Christian Serbs, with the help of NATO, and now refuse to "rejoin" Serbia should not be surprising...
It's sort of like the US invading Iraq to put the pro-Iranian Shia in charge of Baghdad...
Do you see a pattern here...?
Sunday, January 15, 2006
SHARON...A VEGETABLE...?
Clearly, Sharon's legacy is in danger if he is merely kept alive as a "vegetable"...another Terry Shivo....in effect.
Stroke patients are very problematic because often they will lose all "higher brain" function, but the lower brain will keep them alive physically....heart and lungs functioning mechanically...with no awareness on the part of the patient.
My advice would be NOT to give Sharon a "trach"...to allow easier breathing...as this would stop the eventual pneumonia from developing...and almost gaurantee a persistant vegetative state.
Once the trach route is taken...along with naso-gastric feeding or a feeding tube into the stomach...these stroke patients can linger for years! And things just get more complicated.
Hopefully, someone in the Sharon family will realize this...and "do the right thing"...and let nature take it's course.
Rather than prolong the suffering of all concerned.
Stroke patients are very problematic because often they will lose all "higher brain" function, but the lower brain will keep them alive physically....heart and lungs functioning mechanically...with no awareness on the part of the patient.
My advice would be NOT to give Sharon a "trach"...to allow easier breathing...as this would stop the eventual pneumonia from developing...and almost gaurantee a persistant vegetative state.
Once the trach route is taken...along with naso-gastric feeding or a feeding tube into the stomach...these stroke patients can linger for years! And things just get more complicated.
Hopefully, someone in the Sharon family will realize this...and "do the right thing"...and let nature take it's course.
Rather than prolong the suffering of all concerned.
US TAXPAYER TRAINING SHIA MILITIA...?
How long do you think it will take the Pentagon and White House to wise up as to WHO THEY ARE REALLY "TRAINING" IN IRAQ...
So sad really...so very sad. Has stupidity been THAT institutionalized in Washington?
So sad really...so very sad. Has stupidity been THAT institutionalized in Washington?
CELEBRATE DAWIN DAY...FEB 12
Did you know that Charles Darwin and Abraham Lincoln were born on the same day of the same year?
February 12, 1809!
Celebrate DARWIN DAY on February 12...
February 12, 1809!
Celebrate DARWIN DAY on February 12...
BACK TO JIM CROW AND THE COAT HANGER?
Now that "Machine Gun Sam" is heading for the high court
it's going to be back to Jim Crow and the coat hanger for the American Public...!
And the liberals who opposed him can expect a "knock on the door" any day now to be taken to Gulag Dubya....!
Well, maybe not so fast... Now that the Alito "thing" is over the media can start re-focusing on Kongressional Korruption... The war in Iraq...and how it "empowered" the Iranian radicals to thumb their noses at Bush and the Neocons with impunity. And how China is financing it all by accepting our increasingly dubious "paper assets."
That should be enough to give the Democrats PLENTY of arugments going into the November elections...which I predict will return BOTH houses of Kongress to the Democrats... Yes, I know that that is technically impossible...but November is a long way off in political terms. And a lot can happen....
My hunch is that Alito was given his seat on the court will the express condition that he NOT overrule RoevWade which has been the gift that keeps on giving for Republicans...
Mostly Roe gives Republicans a 'CHEAP' wedge issue that allows working class Bubbas to vote to abolish their pensions and send their jobs to China... All under the assumption that Republican elites really care about abortion (which is so 70's!) and homos and Jesus!
Trust me....Wall Street doesn't care about abortion, homos or Jesus! They only want to keep on looting the US economy in the name of International Capital...
So back to Jim Crow and the coat hanger? I don't think so...Wall Street and the Republicans had too good a week this week to make any changes.
And Gulag Dubya? Probably not. The the "no fly list" is "doable!"
it's going to be back to Jim Crow and the coat hanger for the American Public...!
And the liberals who opposed him can expect a "knock on the door" any day now to be taken to Gulag Dubya....!
Well, maybe not so fast... Now that the Alito "thing" is over the media can start re-focusing on Kongressional Korruption... The war in Iraq...and how it "empowered" the Iranian radicals to thumb their noses at Bush and the Neocons with impunity. And how China is financing it all by accepting our increasingly dubious "paper assets."
That should be enough to give the Democrats PLENTY of arugments going into the November elections...which I predict will return BOTH houses of Kongress to the Democrats... Yes, I know that that is technically impossible...but November is a long way off in political terms. And a lot can happen....
My hunch is that Alito was given his seat on the court will the express condition that he NOT overrule RoevWade which has been the gift that keeps on giving for Republicans...
Mostly Roe gives Republicans a 'CHEAP' wedge issue that allows working class Bubbas to vote to abolish their pensions and send their jobs to China... All under the assumption that Republican elites really care about abortion (which is so 70's!) and homos and Jesus!
Trust me....Wall Street doesn't care about abortion, homos or Jesus! They only want to keep on looting the US economy in the name of International Capital...
So back to Jim Crow and the coat hanger? I don't think so...Wall Street and the Republicans had too good a week this week to make any changes.
And Gulag Dubya? Probably not. The the "no fly list" is "doable!"
Friday, January 13, 2006
CUT ENTITLEMENTS FALLACY EXPOSED...!
One the curiouser pension and entitlements arguments in political circles these days is that we have to "cut them...."
Indeed, everyone from NYTimes' Friedman to Dubya etal, are talking about "cutting entitlements."
Yet, no one ever expands on that idea...and says what it really means...net-net.
It means this:
You cut the income of low and middle income people, and "force them" to pay for, or do without, basic services like health care...or living expenses...
And the "savings" thus achieved migrate right down to the corporate bottom lines...and everyone is happy.
But consider:
If a pensioner is already on a tight budget; His "entitlement cut" spent on health care, or living expenses, will simply come out of the bottom line of some other Wall Street company...
If GM cuts health care, and workers "pick up the bill"... There will be less money spent at Walmart, or at the mall or the car dealership...almost immediately!
THIS "CUT ENTITIMENTS" ARGUMENT, USED BY FRIEDMAN AND OTHERS, SIMLPLY TRANSFERS MONEY FROM ONE CORPORATION TO ANOTHER...ie, TOWARD GM, BUT AWAY FROM WALMART...
NOW, CUTS IN GOVERNMENT ENTITLEMENTS ARE NO DIFFERENT. THEY WILL IMPOVERISH THE WORKING CLASSES, EVEN HAS IT ALLOWS MORE TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH...
Somehow the "cut entitlements" argument is not being followed up on...
No one is considering THE MORNING AFTER....
But there is a lot of that going around in high level policy circles these days...
And isn't that really very, very odd?
Indeed, everyone from NYTimes' Friedman to Dubya etal, are talking about "cutting entitlements."
Yet, no one ever expands on that idea...and says what it really means...net-net.
It means this:
You cut the income of low and middle income people, and "force them" to pay for, or do without, basic services like health care...or living expenses...
And the "savings" thus achieved migrate right down to the corporate bottom lines...and everyone is happy.
But consider:
If a pensioner is already on a tight budget; His "entitlement cut" spent on health care, or living expenses, will simply come out of the bottom line of some other Wall Street company...
If GM cuts health care, and workers "pick up the bill"... There will be less money spent at Walmart, or at the mall or the car dealership...almost immediately!
THIS "CUT ENTITIMENTS" ARGUMENT, USED BY FRIEDMAN AND OTHERS, SIMLPLY TRANSFERS MONEY FROM ONE CORPORATION TO ANOTHER...ie, TOWARD GM, BUT AWAY FROM WALMART...
NOW, CUTS IN GOVERNMENT ENTITLEMENTS ARE NO DIFFERENT. THEY WILL IMPOVERISH THE WORKING CLASSES, EVEN HAS IT ALLOWS MORE TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH...
Somehow the "cut entitlements" argument is not being followed up on...
No one is considering THE MORNING AFTER....
But there is a lot of that going around in high level policy circles these days...
And isn't that really very, very odd?
DUBYA'S IRAQ DEBACLE EMBOLDENS IRAN...
When Dubya invaded Iraq...he really finished the job that had Iran failed to do...
Removing Saddam and empowering the Shia sect over the Sunnis.
And by "empowering" the Shia of Iraq Dubya has further emboldened the Iranians...
And why not? The US is doing Irans dirty work for them...!
The sad tale of the Iraq Adventure simply will not go away... And it could be with us for years to come...and may just have bent the stream of history in a different direction... So stupidity in high places really does have consequences...
Clearly any attack on Iran by Israel would totally destabilize the middle east...and the US in Iraq would be stuck right in the middle of the action with little hope for success.
The hope that the UN will "sanction" Iran is ill founded given that Russia and China will use the Iran issue to get even with the US over their losses in Iraq.
And clearly, the US miliary isn't big enough to invade Iran without a draft...and THAT would be the final straw for the American public.
The sheer size of Dubya's mistake in invading Iraq is even now not fully appreciated...and it's unintended consequences are even now an unknowable unknown...
Removing Saddam and empowering the Shia sect over the Sunnis.
And by "empowering" the Shia of Iraq Dubya has further emboldened the Iranians...
And why not? The US is doing Irans dirty work for them...!
The sad tale of the Iraq Adventure simply will not go away... And it could be with us for years to come...and may just have bent the stream of history in a different direction... So stupidity in high places really does have consequences...
Clearly any attack on Iran by Israel would totally destabilize the middle east...and the US in Iraq would be stuck right in the middle of the action with little hope for success.
The hope that the UN will "sanction" Iran is ill founded given that Russia and China will use the Iran issue to get even with the US over their losses in Iraq.
And clearly, the US miliary isn't big enough to invade Iran without a draft...and THAT would be the final straw for the American public.
The sheer size of Dubya's mistake in invading Iraq is even now not fully appreciated...and it's unintended consequences are even now an unknowable unknown...
Thursday, January 12, 2006
OPPS...MARKET MASTERS TAKE THEIR DIMES...
What happen to the 3PM rally today.... it turned into a selloff!
Is the January "rally" over already...?
Is the January "rally" over already...?
BUY THE DIP BABY....
THE THREE O'CLOCK MIRACLE RALLY IS COMING....!
....lol.
This is a market that "wants" to go up...no matter what. The suckers are flocking and Wall Street has room for each and every one of them!
....lol.
This is a market that "wants" to go up...no matter what. The suckers are flocking and Wall Street has room for each and every one of them!
DEMOCRATS NEAR HYSTERIA ABOUT ALITO...
It's too bad the Demcorats didn't think about Alito
back during the 2004 election campaign when they could have still done something about it...
I personally find this near hysteria about Alito unnecessary and a little distrubing...
First off, the Democratic problem is really with the Kongress and the President, and in the State Houses around the nation...NOT AT THE US SUPREME COURT LEVEL...
If Democrats want to have a say in politics and policy they simply must start WINNING some elections... And that means making some concessions to political reality at the GrassRoots level.
Simply going with the College Town liberal agenda, and then throwing hissy fits and getting drunk when things turn out badly is a non-starter...
Democrats need policies and people that can appeal to all levels of the electorate... Howard Dean is on the right track here.
The economy and health care are key issues for most Americans these days...
But many Democrats continue to insist on being branded with far left social issues like gay marriage and abortion... These two issues, by the way, really affect very few people...and even fewer in the Red States...where Democrats have conceded defeat to often without even a contest these days.
The point is this... Alito may or may not have the opportunity to overturn RoevWade...that's history. Get over it.
In truth, the Supreme Court has very little control over Kongress and the States...as long as they don't overstep their limited powers...and legislate wildly about issues that are far beyond their authority to do so.
And remember, conservatives like Alito are against LEGISLATING FROM THE BENCH... Right?
That power still belongs to the state legislatures and in the common law state courts. The "statutory" Federal Courts are really not that central to the law in the US--in most cases.
As a result, I would be very disappointed, for example, if the Federal Courts overturned the Oregon assisted suicide law...since the State of Oregon in its sovereign position passed that law in the state legislature...
And if the new Conservative Court does start to "legislate"...? Well, there is always the right to demostrate in front of the Courthouse... Having 500,000 women protesting in front of the Congress and the Supreme Court could be very "convincing!" Ya suppose?
So, the real question should be THE NEXT ELECTION, and how to win it! BIG!
Or, is it better to sit and have a good cry and get drunk over the inevitable appointment of Alito to the Supremes...?
back during the 2004 election campaign when they could have still done something about it...
I personally find this near hysteria about Alito unnecessary and a little distrubing...
First off, the Democratic problem is really with the Kongress and the President, and in the State Houses around the nation...NOT AT THE US SUPREME COURT LEVEL...
If Democrats want to have a say in politics and policy they simply must start WINNING some elections... And that means making some concessions to political reality at the GrassRoots level.
Simply going with the College Town liberal agenda, and then throwing hissy fits and getting drunk when things turn out badly is a non-starter...
Democrats need policies and people that can appeal to all levels of the electorate... Howard Dean is on the right track here.
The economy and health care are key issues for most Americans these days...
But many Democrats continue to insist on being branded with far left social issues like gay marriage and abortion... These two issues, by the way, really affect very few people...and even fewer in the Red States...where Democrats have conceded defeat to often without even a contest these days.
The point is this... Alito may or may not have the opportunity to overturn RoevWade...that's history. Get over it.
In truth, the Supreme Court has very little control over Kongress and the States...as long as they don't overstep their limited powers...and legislate wildly about issues that are far beyond their authority to do so.
And remember, conservatives like Alito are against LEGISLATING FROM THE BENCH... Right?
That power still belongs to the state legislatures and in the common law state courts. The "statutory" Federal Courts are really not that central to the law in the US--in most cases.
As a result, I would be very disappointed, for example, if the Federal Courts overturned the Oregon assisted suicide law...since the State of Oregon in its sovereign position passed that law in the state legislature...
And if the new Conservative Court does start to "legislate"...? Well, there is always the right to demostrate in front of the Courthouse... Having 500,000 women protesting in front of the Congress and the Supreme Court could be very "convincing!" Ya suppose?
So, the real question should be THE NEXT ELECTION, and how to win it! BIG!
Or, is it better to sit and have a good cry and get drunk over the inevitable appointment of Alito to the Supremes...?
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
SHARON'S DETERIORATING LEGACY...
Sharon is not even dead yet...but, the revisionism on his legacy is already starting...!
Today, Tom Friedman, of all people, puts another brick in that wall...
Friedman observes that Sharon was "brutal on the Arabs," and was an ill-advised settlement builder, and had an otherwise botched political career...up until recently.
And recently?
Well, the Gaza pull out--and the recognition that "seperation," and perhaps--a two state solution was an inevitable outcome... And dumping the Likudnics...
Now, it is customary to note that Israel does not have a "partner for peace"...
True... But Hamas has been a wonderful "partner for war."
And war was what Sharon and the Likud were good at most of the time.
So, is it just possible that Hamas will change it's stripes, in the fullness of time...GIVEN:
(1) A REAL opportunity for a two state solution.
(2) REAL control of the West Bank.
Well, time will tell...
But, with Sharon and his radical Likud marginalized...there is, finally, a real chance that the FANATIC warriors of Hamas will also be marginalized on the Palestinian side.
Perhaps even made obsolete...once the West Bank occupation ends?
And with New Hopes among Palestinians that the "butcher" and settlement builder is no longer in power, and coming after their West Bank lands...?
And maybe, with the elusive two state solution, desperately supported by most of the world, REALLY coming...?
Well, just maybe, another "Miracle" could happen in the Holy Land in 2006....
Just perhaps.
Today, Tom Friedman, of all people, puts another brick in that wall...
Friedman observes that Sharon was "brutal on the Arabs," and was an ill-advised settlement builder, and had an otherwise botched political career...up until recently.
And recently?
Well, the Gaza pull out--and the recognition that "seperation," and perhaps--a two state solution was an inevitable outcome... And dumping the Likudnics...
Now, it is customary to note that Israel does not have a "partner for peace"...
True... But Hamas has been a wonderful "partner for war."
And war was what Sharon and the Likud were good at most of the time.
So, is it just possible that Hamas will change it's stripes, in the fullness of time...GIVEN:
(1) A REAL opportunity for a two state solution.
(2) REAL control of the West Bank.
(3) And the end of more settlements on the West Bank....?
Well, time will tell...
But, with Sharon and his radical Likud marginalized...there is, finally, a real chance that the FANATIC warriors of Hamas will also be marginalized on the Palestinian side.
Perhaps even made obsolete...once the West Bank occupation ends?
And with New Hopes among Palestinians that the "butcher" and settlement builder is no longer in power, and coming after their West Bank lands...?
And maybe, with the elusive two state solution, desperately supported by most of the world, REALLY coming...?
Well, just maybe, another "Miracle" could happen in the Holy Land in 2006....
Just perhaps.
THOSE AMAZING CHINESE...CARS!
The North American Auto Show in Detroit seems to be all about Japan and China...!
Of Course the GM Brass are constantly being asked:
Are you Bankrupt yet?
No.
Are you Bankrupt yet?
No.
Are you Bankrupt yet?
Lemme see...maybe?
And the first American market offering by China's GEELY seems like 1960 Redux when the "Japanese Junkers" first entered the US marketplace...
Of Course the GM Brass are constantly being asked:
Are you Bankrupt yet?
No.
Are you Bankrupt yet?
No.
Are you Bankrupt yet?
Lemme see...maybe?
And the first American market offering by China's GEELY seems like 1960 Redux when the "Japanese Junkers" first entered the US marketplace...
DUPONT BLAMES THE WEATHER...
Hey, I thought only retailers could use that one.... Watch for more CREATIVE EXCUSES as Earnings Season progresses....!
AND ON THE SEVENTH DAY THE MARKET RESTED....
Having "satisfied" the "First Five Days" Rule...
on the Seventh day the Markets rested... Or so it seems.
Clearly, the ABSOLUTE NEED to go up for the first five days of January has exhausted the markets...and left a lot of explaining to do.
Indeed. Robert Doll's 10 market predictions on NBR last night embodied the GLOOM AND DOOM scenario so well...I'm speechless:
Here is the NBR transcript:
GHARIB: LET'S GO OVER YOUR PREDICTIONS IN MORE DETAIL FOR 2006 BEGINNING WITH PREDICTION NUMBER ONE. YOU SAY HERE THE U.S. ECONOMY SLOWS TO 3% GROWTH. AND THEN YOUR PREDICTION FOR NUMBER 2, CORPORATE EARNINGS GROW BETWEEN 5% AND 7%. THAT'S BELOW CONSENSUS EXPECTATIONS OF DOUBLE DIGITS.NUMBER THREE, THE U.S. YIELD CURVE INVERTS. NUMBER FOUR, THE STOCK MARKET EXPERIENCES ITS FIRST 10% CORRECTION SINCE 2002. WE JUST DISCUSSED THAT.AND NUMBER FIVE, GROWTH STOCKS DO BETTER THAN VALUE, LARGE STOCKS OUTPERFORM SMALL STOCKS. BOB, YOU KNOW, LOOKING OVER THESE FIRST FIVE, IT SOUNDS LIKE A BLEAK YEAR. WHAT'S THE MESSAGE HERE?
DOLL: WE THINK MARKETS WILL BE UP THIS YEAR DESPITE ALL THAT, SUSIE. WE THINK THE ECONOMY WILL SLOW TO ABOUT 3% GROWTH AS THE U.S. CONSUMER SLOWS REACTING TO HIGHER INTEREST RATES, HIGHER OIL PRICES, AND SLOWING GAINS IN HOUSING PRICES.
GHARIB: AND THAT'S EVEN THOUGH YOU SAID THAT THE FED STOPS RAISING RATES?
DOLL: THAT IS CORRECT. AND THAT WILL LEAD, IN OUR OPINION, TO EARNINGS DISAPPOINTMENT WHICH IS CAUSES THE SETBACK IN STOCK PRICES. BUT THE SECOND HALF OF THAT PREDICTION IS PAVING THE WAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE EQUITY BULL MARKET WHICH WE THINK COMMENCES. IN THE MID-'80s AND THE MID-'90s WE HAD A PULLBACK. WE THINK WE'LL GET ONE THE MIDDLE OF THIS DECADE ON THE WAY TO HIGHER HIGHS IN THE YEARS TO COME.
GHARIB: LET'S LOOK AT THE NEXT OF YOUR PREDICTIONS.NUMBER SIX, THE U.S. DOLLAR RESUMES ITS DOWN TREND. NUMBER SEVEN, OVERSEAS STOCK MARKETS OUTPERFORM THE U.S.STOCK MARKET.NUMBER EIGHT, YOU PREDICT ANOTHER YEAR OF HIGH DIVIDEND INCREASES, SHARE BUYBACKS AND MERGERS. NUMBER NINE, COMMODITY PRICES RISE, INCLUDING OIL AND GOLD.AND THEN NUMBER TEN, IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS REPUBLICANS RETAIN CONTROL OF CONGRESS.
AND ON THIS THEY EXPECT MOM AN POP TO JUMP INTO THE MARKETS...? I COULD NOT HAVE COME UP WITH A GLOOMIER MARKET FORECAST THAT THE ONE DOLL HAS OUTLINED...OF COURSE I MIGHT SAY THE DEMOCRATS TAKE THE SENATE PERHAPS...
on the Seventh day the Markets rested... Or so it seems.
Clearly, the ABSOLUTE NEED to go up for the first five days of January has exhausted the markets...and left a lot of explaining to do.
Indeed. Robert Doll's 10 market predictions on NBR last night embodied the GLOOM AND DOOM scenario so well...I'm speechless:
Here is the NBR transcript:
GHARIB: LET'S GO OVER YOUR PREDICTIONS IN MORE DETAIL FOR 2006 BEGINNING WITH PREDICTION NUMBER ONE. YOU SAY HERE THE U.S. ECONOMY SLOWS TO 3% GROWTH. AND THEN YOUR PREDICTION FOR NUMBER 2, CORPORATE EARNINGS GROW BETWEEN 5% AND 7%. THAT'S BELOW CONSENSUS EXPECTATIONS OF DOUBLE DIGITS.NUMBER THREE, THE U.S. YIELD CURVE INVERTS. NUMBER FOUR, THE STOCK MARKET EXPERIENCES ITS FIRST 10% CORRECTION SINCE 2002. WE JUST DISCUSSED THAT.AND NUMBER FIVE, GROWTH STOCKS DO BETTER THAN VALUE, LARGE STOCKS OUTPERFORM SMALL STOCKS. BOB, YOU KNOW, LOOKING OVER THESE FIRST FIVE, IT SOUNDS LIKE A BLEAK YEAR. WHAT'S THE MESSAGE HERE?
DOLL: WE THINK MARKETS WILL BE UP THIS YEAR DESPITE ALL THAT, SUSIE. WE THINK THE ECONOMY WILL SLOW TO ABOUT 3% GROWTH AS THE U.S. CONSUMER SLOWS REACTING TO HIGHER INTEREST RATES, HIGHER OIL PRICES, AND SLOWING GAINS IN HOUSING PRICES.
GHARIB: AND THAT'S EVEN THOUGH YOU SAID THAT THE FED STOPS RAISING RATES?
DOLL: THAT IS CORRECT. AND THAT WILL LEAD, IN OUR OPINION, TO EARNINGS DISAPPOINTMENT WHICH IS CAUSES THE SETBACK IN STOCK PRICES. BUT THE SECOND HALF OF THAT PREDICTION IS PAVING THE WAY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE EQUITY BULL MARKET WHICH WE THINK COMMENCES. IN THE MID-'80s AND THE MID-'90s WE HAD A PULLBACK. WE THINK WE'LL GET ONE THE MIDDLE OF THIS DECADE ON THE WAY TO HIGHER HIGHS IN THE YEARS TO COME.
GHARIB: LET'S LOOK AT THE NEXT OF YOUR PREDICTIONS.NUMBER SIX, THE U.S. DOLLAR RESUMES ITS DOWN TREND. NUMBER SEVEN, OVERSEAS STOCK MARKETS OUTPERFORM THE U.S.STOCK MARKET.NUMBER EIGHT, YOU PREDICT ANOTHER YEAR OF HIGH DIVIDEND INCREASES, SHARE BUYBACKS AND MERGERS. NUMBER NINE, COMMODITY PRICES RISE, INCLUDING OIL AND GOLD.AND THEN NUMBER TEN, IN THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS REPUBLICANS RETAIN CONTROL OF CONGRESS.
AND ON THIS THEY EXPECT MOM AN POP TO JUMP INTO THE MARKETS...? I COULD NOT HAVE COME UP WITH A GLOOMIER MARKET FORECAST THAT THE ONE DOLL HAS OUTLINED...OF COURSE I MIGHT SAY THE DEMOCRATS TAKE THE SENATE PERHAPS...
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
BONDS COULD QUEER THE RALLY...
The problem with Bonds is that they are in a more sophisticated market...
While the hypsters can happy talk the market for the mom and pop audience...it's harder to hookwink the bond traders. And if the bond market starts to "express itself" negatively...even the hypsters will have to change their tune.
There are a lot of underlying fundamental and macro economic problems in the markets right now that can not be ignored... Hopefully they can be put "under the fold" so the retail suckers don't see them...
But then again maybe not... The problem is that the "everything is peachy" story just doen't hold water...beyond the Fox News channel...
There are a thousand ways this Happy Daze are Queer Again story could fold... Stay tuned....
While the hypsters can happy talk the market for the mom and pop audience...it's harder to hookwink the bond traders. And if the bond market starts to "express itself" negatively...even the hypsters will have to change their tune.
There are a lot of underlying fundamental and macro economic problems in the markets right now that can not be ignored... Hopefully they can be put "under the fold" so the retail suckers don't see them...
But then again maybe not... The problem is that the "everything is peachy" story just doen't hold water...beyond the Fox News channel...
There are a thousand ways this Happy Daze are Queer Again story could fold... Stay tuned....
WALL STREET IS GOOGLING...!
Wall Street is Googling...and it's best to just let it go...
The hope is that the mom and pop investor will jump in and buy the techs like Cisco, Yahoo, Apple etal...like it's 1999! And perhaps the "rally" can continue for a while as the Street has an amazing ability to "make it's own gravy" in the news area...
Look for all bad news to be "back paged" ASAP... And the HAPPY TALK to be highlighted on the front pages...
Even the Alcoa news today was dumped because it didn't "fit the story line."
I've seen this movie before...perhaps some money can be made daytrading this hype...but the chances of long term profits in 401ks is remote...
Today's WSJ was a study in double talk... The economy is "good for bonds and for stocks" is the story line. The FED is going to "quit hiking rates." And none of the "bad stuff" will happen...
And gold? Well there is concern that the "man of peace" in the middle east may now be a "vegetable."
Let the Happy Talk continue...the Street is Googling... But don't worry the market masters will decide when it's time to "pull the plug." They always do!
The hope is that the mom and pop investor will jump in and buy the techs like Cisco, Yahoo, Apple etal...like it's 1999! And perhaps the "rally" can continue for a while as the Street has an amazing ability to "make it's own gravy" in the news area...
Look for all bad news to be "back paged" ASAP... And the HAPPY TALK to be highlighted on the front pages...
Even the Alcoa news today was dumped because it didn't "fit the story line."
I've seen this movie before...perhaps some money can be made daytrading this hype...but the chances of long term profits in 401ks is remote...
Today's WSJ was a study in double talk... The economy is "good for bonds and for stocks" is the story line. The FED is going to "quit hiking rates." And none of the "bad stuff" will happen...
And gold? Well there is concern that the "man of peace" in the middle east may now be a "vegetable."
Let the Happy Talk continue...the Street is Googling... But don't worry the market masters will decide when it's time to "pull the plug." They always do!
Monday, January 9, 2006
DOW PLAYS CHICKEN WITH 11,000....?
Go Baby Go.... Yea! Do it baby...Do it.
Phew....that was close...
But with the Dow THIS BUBBLICIOUS THE FED CAN KEEP RAISING RATES ALL YEAR!!
Seriously this strikes me as Wall Street attempt to send mom and pop the ALL CLEAR SIGNAL.... In hopes that the public will flock back into the markets...
Well maybe...but I'd stick with yield producers...and energy and the metals.
GOLD SOARED TODAY....!!
Not really what you'd expect If EQUITIES ARE really "BACK! "
So, I still call this a SUCKERS RALLY!
The consumer was weak for the holidays and there is no evidence that he is any stronger now. The job growth has been punk ...except if you "dumb down" the notion of what's "good."
And then there is Iraq...and Israel supposedly prepared to attack Iran...
And worst of all the idea that China is prepared to "dump the dollar."
And who can blame them....? Right after we refused to sell them UNOCAL...GOLD STARTED GOING UP AND UP....
ARE THE CHINESE BEHIND THE GOLD RUN UP....?
I think they are... And as to mom and pop...REMEMBER ITS BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH....
NOT CHASE THE TOP...AND SELL THE BOTTOM!
Postscript: And this notion that the Dow 11,000 was caused by GM rising from the dead like Lazarus is not the stuff of long term bull markets... GM is still GM...and it will be tomorrow morning...! And furthermore, the chart for the DOW today (see title link) looks a little fishy...market masters to the rescue...? Ya think?
Phew....that was close...
But with the Dow THIS BUBBLICIOUS THE FED CAN KEEP RAISING RATES ALL YEAR!!
Seriously this strikes me as Wall Street attempt to send mom and pop the ALL CLEAR SIGNAL.... In hopes that the public will flock back into the markets...
Well maybe...but I'd stick with yield producers...and energy and the metals.
GOLD SOARED TODAY....!!
Not really what you'd expect If EQUITIES ARE really "BACK! "
So, I still call this a SUCKERS RALLY!
The consumer was weak for the holidays and there is no evidence that he is any stronger now. The job growth has been punk ...except if you "dumb down" the notion of what's "good."
And then there is Iraq...and Israel supposedly prepared to attack Iran...
And worst of all the idea that China is prepared to "dump the dollar."
And who can blame them....? Right after we refused to sell them UNOCAL...GOLD STARTED GOING UP AND UP....
ARE THE CHINESE BEHIND THE GOLD RUN UP....?
I think they are... And as to mom and pop...REMEMBER ITS BUY LOW AND SELL HIGH....
NOT CHASE THE TOP...AND SELL THE BOTTOM!
Postscript: And this notion that the Dow 11,000 was caused by GM rising from the dead like Lazarus is not the stuff of long term bull markets... GM is still GM...and it will be tomorrow morning...! And furthermore, the chart for the DOW today (see title link) looks a little fishy...market masters to the rescue...? Ya think?
NOT MY LEMMINGS....?
A curious comment....
My Reply:
The rise in gold and oil is a sign of inflation or lack of confidence in paper money...probably caused by the extreme monetary hyper-liquidity that the FED has allowed...for way too long now.
Indeed, the hyperliquidity seems to have caused inflation in bond prices too! Now that's a conundrum! But bonds are "assets" too...I suppose.
It's been all about ASSET INFLATION for the last 20 years... But that was only made possible because of the wage deflation that was a one-off side effect of Friedman's beloved Globalism.
The real story this January is the big run up in gold and oil...not the seasonal spike in the Dow...which is strictly for the 401k lemmings...
The only thing better than cash today...is gold or gold stocks...we are heading for STAGFLATION later this year.
Weaker housing, a punk dollar, higher rates and higher gold prices; as confidence in paper assets deteriorates...and the asset bubbles deflate.
Fortunately, gold NEVER WAS in a bubble...the Central Banks took care of that! Now even they are losing contol of the hard assets like oil and metals.
But your suggestion of "the mattress" might be a good idea in October!
My Reply:
The rise in gold and oil is a sign of inflation or lack of confidence in paper money...probably caused by the extreme monetary hyper-liquidity that the FED has allowed...for way too long now.
Indeed, the hyperliquidity seems to have caused inflation in bond prices too! Now that's a conundrum! But bonds are "assets" too...I suppose.
It's been all about ASSET INFLATION for the last 20 years... But that was only made possible because of the wage deflation that was a one-off side effect of Friedman's beloved Globalism.
The real story this January is the big run up in gold and oil...not the seasonal spike in the Dow...which is strictly for the 401k lemmings...
The only thing better than cash today...is gold or gold stocks...we are heading for STAGFLATION later this year.
Weaker housing, a punk dollar, higher rates and higher gold prices; as confidence in paper assets deteriorates...and the asset bubbles deflate.
Fortunately, gold NEVER WAS in a bubble...the Central Banks took care of that! Now even they are losing contol of the hard assets like oil and metals.
But your suggestion of "the mattress" might be a good idea in October!
REPUBLICANS WHISTLING PAST GRAVEYARD...
The current yada-yada by Republicans is that
the bribery scandel in Washington "won't hurt them" ~~because the public is disgusted with ALL POLITICIANS...
Well, perhaps...
But, it should be remembered that the Republicans are in control of Washington and all of this happened on their "watch." And the public does hold the leadership responsible for "Current Conditions"...even if they are not directly responsible for those conditions.
Furthermore, the Republicans may be underestimating the attitude of the public on policy priorities...
Many Republicans are content to merely say: "Well the Democrats take bribes too..."
OK. But that is NOT what's on mom and pop's mind these days...
Consider:
The public is concerned about the HEALTH CARE CRISIS... But we are repeatedly told the Republicans: "Don't want to talk about that issue." Hmmmm....?
And, the public is concerned about jobs and wages... But, Bush has declare the economy to be "booming"...problem solved. No matter that mom and pop still think the economy is in RECESSION! And heading in the wrong direction!
The public is concerned about the aftermath of the Iraq War; and the continuing death rate of American soldiers, who we now have discovered where given "cheap" body armor...by Rummy & Co!
And, even the Bubba Republicans must be wondering why Kongressional Republicans are so silent about the homo marriages, and the abortion Constitutional Amendment that they were repeatedly promised during the 2004 elections.... Ya think?
Indeed, the Kongressional Republicans seem to be concerned SOLELY with WHOSE BRIBES WERE "MORE LEGAL" IN WASHINGTON...!
AND THAT'S ABOUT IT...
Well, Republicans beware!
Mom and Pop may have a different agenda in the voting booth this November!
the bribery scandel in Washington "won't hurt them" ~~because the public is disgusted with ALL POLITICIANS...
Well, perhaps...
But, it should be remembered that the Republicans are in control of Washington and all of this happened on their "watch." And the public does hold the leadership responsible for "Current Conditions"...even if they are not directly responsible for those conditions.
Furthermore, the Republicans may be underestimating the attitude of the public on policy priorities...
Many Republicans are content to merely say: "Well the Democrats take bribes too..."
OK. But that is NOT what's on mom and pop's mind these days...
Consider:
The public is concerned about the HEALTH CARE CRISIS... But we are repeatedly told the Republicans: "Don't want to talk about that issue." Hmmmm....?
And, the public is concerned about jobs and wages... But, Bush has declare the economy to be "booming"...problem solved. No matter that mom and pop still think the economy is in RECESSION! And heading in the wrong direction!
The public is concerned about the aftermath of the Iraq War; and the continuing death rate of American soldiers, who we now have discovered where given "cheap" body armor...by Rummy & Co!
And, even the Bubba Republicans must be wondering why Kongressional Republicans are so silent about the homo marriages, and the abortion Constitutional Amendment that they were repeatedly promised during the 2004 elections.... Ya think?
Indeed, the Kongressional Republicans seem to be concerned SOLELY with WHOSE BRIBES WERE "MORE LEGAL" IN WASHINGTON...!
AND THAT'S ABOUT IT...
Well, Republicans beware!
Mom and Pop may have a different agenda in the voting booth this November!
MARKET MASTERS EXTEND SUCKER RALLY...
The BIG SUCKER RALLY on Wall Street
is approaching 11,000 on the Dow again...and it will be interesting to see if 11,000 can be breached...and hold till the close of trading.
With so many anomalies and conundrums in the markets it's amazing that this rally is even happening... But the Street has a belief that the 401k lemmings will be running no matter what. And there is a tradition on Wall Street that the lemmings always BUY HIGH AND SELL LOW...
The fundamentals of the market are truly dismal... With the twin deficits and the scandels in Washington...not be mention the disasterous and costly war in Iraq AND last but not least the reality that mom and pop can get 4% in a bank CD now...and a little more if they go with short term money market funds.
SO WHO NEEDS TO RISK CAPITAL IN A MARKET THAT HAS AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE...AND A NEW FED CHAIRMAN COMING ON IN A FEW WEEKS...
Well, never mind... It's a great sucker rally anyway...and even GOLD and oil are participating!
SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE THESE DAYS...
is approaching 11,000 on the Dow again...and it will be interesting to see if 11,000 can be breached...and hold till the close of trading.
With so many anomalies and conundrums in the markets it's amazing that this rally is even happening... But the Street has a belief that the 401k lemmings will be running no matter what. And there is a tradition on Wall Street that the lemmings always BUY HIGH AND SELL LOW...
The fundamentals of the market are truly dismal... With the twin deficits and the scandels in Washington...not be mention the disasterous and costly war in Iraq AND last but not least the reality that mom and pop can get 4% in a bank CD now...and a little more if they go with short term money market funds.
SO WHO NEEDS TO RISK CAPITAL IN A MARKET THAT HAS AN INVERTED YIELD CURVE...AND A NEW FED CHAIRMAN COMING ON IN A FEW WEEKS...
Well, never mind... It's a great sucker rally anyway...and even GOLD and oil are participating!
SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE THESE DAYS...
DAVID DISCOVERS ONLINE PORN!
David Brooks' Sunday op-ed on "Bondage and Bonding" in the NYTimes was rather interesting...
David seems to be shocked at the content of some of those Gen-X.Y.Z "socializing" web sites, like myspace and facebook...which are mostly all about drinking, sex, boobs and partying...by young people
Hmmm....do I detect a note of envy in Brooks' "geeky" tone...? And why is Brooks even "surfing" in that part of the web in the first place?
Well, whatever.... But, if David thinks those sites are bad? ...He hasn't been surfing hard enough!
Hmmm...but with all the troubles at the Times lately?? Someone over there had better keep an eye on David's Cookies!!
Ya think?
David seems to be shocked at the content of some of those Gen-X.Y.Z "socializing" web sites, like myspace and facebook...which are mostly all about drinking, sex, boobs and partying...by young people
Hmmm....do I detect a note of envy in Brooks' "geeky" tone...? And why is Brooks even "surfing" in that part of the web in the first place?
Well, whatever.... But, if David thinks those sites are bad? ...He hasn't been surfing hard enough!
Hmmm...but with all the troubles at the Times lately?? Someone over there had better keep an eye on David's Cookies!!
Ya think?
Sunday, January 8, 2006
SUNDAY DOOMSDAY TALK ABOUT ISRAEL...
The Sunday Talks had a bit of Doomsday Talk about the middle east;
wherein Likud and Hamas "make a deal" to increase tensions...just to keep the extremes "at the center" of middle east politics...
And amazingly, the American Talk Show Likudnics seem to agree with this!
The operative idea is apparently that Israel is going to attack Iran...concerning the nuclear bomb building that is supposedly going on there.
Now, ANY attack on Iran by Israel would surely make Bush's role in Iraq..."problematic."
Since the Shia are strongly under the influence of Iran...there would likely be an INSURGENCY ON STEROIDS if Israel should attack unilaterally...
And alas, unilateral action seems to be the "legacy" of Sharon going forward.
There was some hope that both the Likud and Hamas would "behave" and that the NEW CENTER would develop in Israel that was willing and able to move on a two state solution...and some West Bank pullouts... Let us ONLY hope!
BECAUSE THE "ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN" SCENARIO IS JUST TO HORRIBLE TO EVEN CONTEMPLATE WITH DUBYA'S IRAQ ADVENTURE IN SUCH DIRE CONDITION!
Seperately, the notion of Sharon becoming the next "Terry Shiavo" And..."living" on in a "brain damaged" condition is a horrible end for this man... Hopefully, someone in the family will have the good sense to just pull the plug...and allow Sharon to exit on a high note...
wherein Likud and Hamas "make a deal" to increase tensions...just to keep the extremes "at the center" of middle east politics...
And amazingly, the American Talk Show Likudnics seem to agree with this!
The operative idea is apparently that Israel is going to attack Iran...concerning the nuclear bomb building that is supposedly going on there.
Now, ANY attack on Iran by Israel would surely make Bush's role in Iraq..."problematic."
Since the Shia are strongly under the influence of Iran...there would likely be an INSURGENCY ON STEROIDS if Israel should attack unilaterally...
And alas, unilateral action seems to be the "legacy" of Sharon going forward.
There was some hope that both the Likud and Hamas would "behave" and that the NEW CENTER would develop in Israel that was willing and able to move on a two state solution...and some West Bank pullouts... Let us ONLY hope!
BECAUSE THE "ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN" SCENARIO IS JUST TO HORRIBLE TO EVEN CONTEMPLATE WITH DUBYA'S IRAQ ADVENTURE IN SUCH DIRE CONDITION!
Seperately, the notion of Sharon becoming the next "Terry Shiavo" And..."living" on in a "brain damaged" condition is a horrible end for this man... Hopefully, someone in the family will have the good sense to just pull the plug...and allow Sharon to exit on a high note...
AMERICA'S "GHOST DANCE..."
When a society is near collapse the social phenomenon of the "ghost dance" often developes...
I draw this notion from the American Indians of the 1890's, when the Native American "Cult of the Ghost Dance" caused some wild concerns in Washington. See link.
Essentially, the Ghost Dance is a mass bout of "magical thinking" about the future...where, perhaps, the "ancestors" would "come back" and kick out the white man, (or other "evil ones") and return our Lands and Culture back to the "old ways."
This is really the Messianic thinking that is often present whenever a culture is pushed to the extremes... The "Return of our Savior"...plays a grim part in human history.
Another sign of a culture in decline is doomsday thinking... Here I would include...oddly enough...the Twenty-something "Goths", the Gangsta Rappers, AND the Religious Right!
In all these cases there is the need somehow to escape current reality...and enter into a kind of fantasy world that never was and never will be.
The Rappers live in a world where their powerlessness...is suddenly turned into power. So too with the Goths...they live in a magical world of make believe that removes them from the unpleasantness of everyday life.
And amazingly the Religious Right are in this escapist tradition as well. The magical thinking of religion makes "everything right" again..."like it should be."
Of course it's all caused by the DECLINE of the American economy...and a certain hopelessness that is decending on the public mind... Kongress is hopelessly Korrupt. The Rich control every aspect of the economy, without regard to the rights of labor or the ordinary person.
Globalism has become a doomsday cult that we all must dance around, or else. Honest, just ask Tom Friedman of the NYTimes!
The whole thing reminds me of Germany in the 1920..."before the deluge"...when it was everyone for themself, and the "Goth" lifestyle was also in vouge. Of course it took the Fascists to "restore meaning" for that generation...!
The Native Americans in the 1890's...The Germans in the 1920's...and the Americans today...
They are all victims of the Ghost Dance mentality...!
Let's hope we can turn this around in 2006...at least a little bit.
I draw this notion from the American Indians of the 1890's, when the Native American "Cult of the Ghost Dance" caused some wild concerns in Washington. See link.
Essentially, the Ghost Dance is a mass bout of "magical thinking" about the future...where, perhaps, the "ancestors" would "come back" and kick out the white man, (or other "evil ones") and return our Lands and Culture back to the "old ways."
This is really the Messianic thinking that is often present whenever a culture is pushed to the extremes... The "Return of our Savior"...plays a grim part in human history.
Another sign of a culture in decline is doomsday thinking... Here I would include...oddly enough...the Twenty-something "Goths", the Gangsta Rappers, AND the Religious Right!
In all these cases there is the need somehow to escape current reality...and enter into a kind of fantasy world that never was and never will be.
The Rappers live in a world where their powerlessness...is suddenly turned into power. So too with the Goths...they live in a magical world of make believe that removes them from the unpleasantness of everyday life.
And amazingly the Religious Right are in this escapist tradition as well. The magical thinking of religion makes "everything right" again..."like it should be."
Of course it's all caused by the DECLINE of the American economy...and a certain hopelessness that is decending on the public mind... Kongress is hopelessly Korrupt. The Rich control every aspect of the economy, without regard to the rights of labor or the ordinary person.
Globalism has become a doomsday cult that we all must dance around, or else. Honest, just ask Tom Friedman of the NYTimes!
The whole thing reminds me of Germany in the 1920..."before the deluge"...when it was everyone for themself, and the "Goth" lifestyle was also in vouge. Of course it took the Fascists to "restore meaning" for that generation...!
The Native Americans in the 1890's...The Germans in the 1920's...and the Americans today...
They are all victims of the Ghost Dance mentality...!
Let's hope we can turn this around in 2006...at least a little bit.
Friday, January 6, 2006
IT'S A GAS....!
Don't look now but oil is going up again...and so is gold BIG TIME.
So, just perhaps on Monday the joyful noise coming from the Wall Street Market Masters will need some explaining...? And then there is that pesky 11,000 barrier on the Dow to deal with...
So, just perhaps on Monday the joyful noise coming from the Wall Street Market Masters will need some explaining...? And then there is that pesky 11,000 barrier on the Dow to deal with...
GOLDS SNAP BACK BIG....
Amid all the yada-yada on the state of the economy and the markets in 2006...
Sooner or later someone is going to have to explain what's happening in the GOLD MARKET.
The notion that the recent run in gold is an anomaly...and stocks are going to be going up business as usual is just not credible.
Clearly gold is saying: 1. INFLATION AHEAD or 2. THE DOLLAR IS GOING TO BE WEAKER.
Either of these scenarios would be bad for stocks...and bonds! And would require the new FED boss to raise rates much more than the market is not predicting...
Sooner or later someone is going to have to explain what's happening in the GOLD MARKET.
The notion that the recent run in gold is an anomaly...and stocks are going to be going up business as usual is just not credible.
Clearly gold is saying: 1. INFLATION AHEAD or 2. THE DOLLAR IS GOING TO BE WEAKER.
Either of these scenarios would be bad for stocks...and bonds! And would require the new FED boss to raise rates much more than the market is not predicting...
ARE GOOGLE AND YAHOO REINVENTING TV...?
Is all this talk of "convergence" merely an attempt to "re-invent" the television....?
And, given the dismal state of TV content these days...Who would be interested?
Do I really want to watch television and play games on my cell phone?
I don't think so...
During periods of rapid "innovation" merely doing something because you "can" is not good enough... The real question should be:
Is this something I absolutely can't live without...or is it just another "gizmo?"
And, given the dismal state of TV content these days...Who would be interested?
Do I really want to watch television and play games on my cell phone?
I don't think so...
During periods of rapid "innovation" merely doing something because you "can" is not good enough... The real question should be:
Is this something I absolutely can't live without...or is it just another "gizmo?"
BEST INVESTMENT FOR 2006...?
Everything else is subject to question.
GOLD AND GOLD SHARES ALSO LOOK GOOD AND HAVE A FUNDAMENTAL STORY BEHIND THEM....
DISMAL JOB NUMBERS STILL LOOK FAKED...
READ IT AND WEEP...OR LAUGH OUT LOUD...
The notion that manufactuing is "booming" while construction is falling is a bit nutty...given the nature of the US economy recently.
And the other "good news" is so evenly divided again that it looks contrived...
Retailing is plunging as people run out of money to spend...and many are simply dropping out of the work force rather than look for jobs that don't exist...or that don't pay a living wage.
The entire thing gives the impression of trying to give a good impression...
Clearly, happy days are queer again!
Nonfarm employment....... 133,969p134,294 134,055p134,360p134,468 p108
Goods-producing(1)..... 22,152 p22,236 22,197 p22,250 p22,262 p12
Construction......... 7,262 p7,324 7,299 p7,341 p7,332 p-9
Manufacturing........ 14,258 p14,268 14,257 p14,265 p14,283 p18
Service-providing(1)... 111,817p112,058 111,858p112,110p112,206 p96
Retail trade(2)...... 15,221 p15,181 15,178 p15,190 p15,175 p-16
Professional and
business services.. 16,995 p17,113 17,051 p17,127 p17,160 p33
Education and health
services........... 17,417 p17,476 17,443 p17,480 p17,505 p25
Leisure and
hospitality........ 12,798 p12,798 12,755 p12,808 p12,831 p23
Government.......... 21,841 p21,871 21,850 p21,874 p21,888 p14
The notion that manufactuing is "booming" while construction is falling is a bit nutty...given the nature of the US economy recently.
And the other "good news" is so evenly divided again that it looks contrived...
Retailing is plunging as people run out of money to spend...and many are simply dropping out of the work force rather than look for jobs that don't exist...or that don't pay a living wage.
The entire thing gives the impression of trying to give a good impression...
Clearly, happy days are queer again!
Nonfarm employment....... 133,969p134,294 134,055p134,360p134,468 p108
Goods-producing(1)..... 22,152 p22,236 22,197 p22,250 p22,262 p12
Construction......... 7,262 p7,324 7,299 p7,341 p7,332 p-9
Manufacturing........ 14,258 p14,268 14,257 p14,265 p14,283 p18
Service-providing(1)... 111,817p112,058 111,858p112,110p112,206 p96
Retail trade(2)...... 15,221 p15,181 15,178 p15,190 p15,175 p-16
Professional and
business services.. 16,995 p17,113 17,051 p17,127 p17,160 p33
Education and health
services........... 17,417 p17,476 17,443 p17,480 p17,505 p25
Leisure and
hospitality........ 12,798 p12,798 12,755 p12,808 p12,831 p23
Government.......... 21,841 p21,871 21,850 p21,874 p21,888 p14
Thursday, January 5, 2006
THE COMING BANKRUPTCY FIASCO...
This will be the first full year for the new Bankruptcy Rules...
So I recently asked a Bankruptcy Lawyer what the effect would be, and he replied that there will be a LOT fewer people filing for Bankruptcy...
But I beg to differ:
Consider:
Under the new rules it's not debts to assets that makes you eligibile for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy, (the favorite kind), but rather debts to income that counts!
This means that someone with $100,000 in debt and $20,000 in assets would NOT BE ALLOWED to have a Chapter 7 liquidation IF HE HAD AN INCOME OF SAY $50,000+
Assuming the State Average income is less than $50,000 for that debtor!
SO UNDER THE NEW LAW HIGHER INCOME PEOPLE WOULD BE FORCED INTO THE LESS DESIREABLE CHAPTER 13 "RE-ORGANIZATION"...
The dirty little secret is that bankruptcy never was for the "poor" but always for the slightly confused middle class wage earners!
HERE'S WHY MORE PEOPLE WILL BE FILING BANKRUPTCY:
You would think that IF you gotta pay anyway...why even bother with bankruptcy? Right?
But that's not how it works for most debtors.... The more usualy scenario is that they get "behind" and start getting "letters" and phone calls about their debts... Of course they ignore them because they are "doing the best they can." Right?
But then come the LAW SUITS...sooner or later some debtor will "reduce his claim to judgement"...AND A GARNISHMENT OF WAGES WILL BE FILED!!
BINGO!! THIS IS WHEN THE DEBTOR RUSHS TO HIS ATTORNEY BECAUSE HE CAN NOT TOLERATE THE GARNISHMENT OF HIS WAGES...WHICH TAKES "MOST" OF HIS WAGES DEPENDING ON THE STATE LAWS IN PLAY.
Once wages are garnished, and most bankrupt has "decent" wages...BANRUPTCY IS INEVITABLE! I have never known a single debtor that could withstand wage garnishment.
BUT WAIT! Our debtor has "higher wages" and thus can't file Chapter 7... He is forced into Chapter 13 SIMPLY TO STOP THE WAGE GARNISHMENTS...! AND NOT BECAUSE HE "WANTS" TO AVOID CHAPTER 7 LIQUIDATION.
In conclusion, more people will file bankruptcy and they will be in bankrupcy longer (5 years perhaps) under the NEW LAW which forces people will "living wages" to repay their debts...
The fact that Chapter 7 is not available to them will be irrelevant; because most people go to bankrupcy to PROTECT THEIR WAGES, NOT THEIR ASSETS WHICH ARE USUALLY MINIMUAL.
(The KEY house and care notes were ALWAYS "revived" under the old system, and will be under the new rules too.)
UNDER THE NEW RULES THERE WILL BE A FLOOD OF BANKRUPTCIES...NOT FEWER BECAUSE WHILE YOU CAN CHANGE THE "RULES" YOU CAN'T CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE PEOPLE WHO MUST FILE BANKRUPTCY...
BECAUSE IT ALWAYS WAS ALL ABOUT "WAGE PROTECTION," AND NOT "ASSET PROTECTION"...
AND THAT HAS NOT CHANGED UNDER THE NEW LAW!
So I recently asked a Bankruptcy Lawyer what the effect would be, and he replied that there will be a LOT fewer people filing for Bankruptcy...
But I beg to differ:
Consider:
Under the new rules it's not debts to assets that makes you eligibile for Chapter 7 Bankruptcy, (the favorite kind), but rather debts to income that counts!
This means that someone with $100,000 in debt and $20,000 in assets would NOT BE ALLOWED to have a Chapter 7 liquidation IF HE HAD AN INCOME OF SAY $50,000+
Assuming the State Average income is less than $50,000 for that debtor!
SO UNDER THE NEW LAW HIGHER INCOME PEOPLE WOULD BE FORCED INTO THE LESS DESIREABLE CHAPTER 13 "RE-ORGANIZATION"...
The dirty little secret is that bankruptcy never was for the "poor" but always for the slightly confused middle class wage earners!
HERE'S WHY MORE PEOPLE WILL BE FILING BANKRUPTCY:
You would think that IF you gotta pay anyway...why even bother with bankruptcy? Right?
But that's not how it works for most debtors.... The more usualy scenario is that they get "behind" and start getting "letters" and phone calls about their debts... Of course they ignore them because they are "doing the best they can." Right?
But then come the LAW SUITS...sooner or later some debtor will "reduce his claim to judgement"...AND A GARNISHMENT OF WAGES WILL BE FILED!!
BINGO!! THIS IS WHEN THE DEBTOR RUSHS TO HIS ATTORNEY BECAUSE HE CAN NOT TOLERATE THE GARNISHMENT OF HIS WAGES...WHICH TAKES "MOST" OF HIS WAGES DEPENDING ON THE STATE LAWS IN PLAY.
Once wages are garnished, and most bankrupt has "decent" wages...BANRUPTCY IS INEVITABLE! I have never known a single debtor that could withstand wage garnishment.
BUT WAIT! Our debtor has "higher wages" and thus can't file Chapter 7... He is forced into Chapter 13 SIMPLY TO STOP THE WAGE GARNISHMENTS...! AND NOT BECAUSE HE "WANTS" TO AVOID CHAPTER 7 LIQUIDATION.
In conclusion, more people will file bankruptcy and they will be in bankrupcy longer (5 years perhaps) under the NEW LAW which forces people will "living wages" to repay their debts...
The fact that Chapter 7 is not available to them will be irrelevant; because most people go to bankrupcy to PROTECT THEIR WAGES, NOT THEIR ASSETS WHICH ARE USUALLY MINIMUAL.
(The KEY house and care notes were ALWAYS "revived" under the old system, and will be under the new rules too.)
UNDER THE NEW RULES THERE WILL BE A FLOOD OF BANKRUPTCIES...NOT FEWER BECAUSE WHILE YOU CAN CHANGE THE "RULES" YOU CAN'T CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE PEOPLE WHO MUST FILE BANKRUPTCY...
BECAUSE IT ALWAYS WAS ALL ABOUT "WAGE PROTECTION," AND NOT "ASSET PROTECTION"...
AND THAT HAS NOT CHANGED UNDER THE NEW LAW!
MARKET MASTERS HELLBENT ON MEETING THE "FIVE DAY" RULE
The odd notion that the first five days of January
determine the course of the markets for the rest of the year is NOT being left to chance this year...!
The Market Masters are determined to control the float and assure that the market goes up for the first five trading days this January...
Now exactly WHO CARES is another matter entirely. Mom and Pop don't really care at this point.
Because, the underlying fundamentals of "the bull market" are near the breaking point.
Some one off news for the economy is:
1. Margin buying/debt is at an all time high!
2. American spent more than they earned in 2005 for the first time sicne 1933!
3. The leadership change at the FED looms large.
4. Gold and Oil are at or near all time highs.
5. The dollar weakness appears to be starting again.
6. The War in the middle east is no where near finished, and the cost keeps going up.
7. Punk job and wage growth is now the accepted "norm."
8. The Bond Bubble is ominious..and the inverted yeild curve is unsettling.
9. The Bubble Menality is alive and well in Google.
10. Kongressional Korruption is out of control with an election looming later this year...
determine the course of the markets for the rest of the year is NOT being left to chance this year...!
The Market Masters are determined to control the float and assure that the market goes up for the first five trading days this January...
Now exactly WHO CARES is another matter entirely. Mom and Pop don't really care at this point.
Because, the underlying fundamentals of "the bull market" are near the breaking point.
Some one off news for the economy is:
1. Margin buying/debt is at an all time high!
2. American spent more than they earned in 2005 for the first time sicne 1933!
3. The leadership change at the FED looms large.
4. Gold and Oil are at or near all time highs.
5. The dollar weakness appears to be starting again.
6. The War in the middle east is no where near finished, and the cost keeps going up.
7. Punk job and wage growth is now the accepted "norm."
8. The Bond Bubble is ominious..and the inverted yeild curve is unsettling.
9. The Bubble Menality is alive and well in Google.
10. Kongressional Korruption is out of control with an election looming later this year...
SHARON PASSING...GOOD FOR "PEACE?"
The passing from the political scene of Arial Sharon, "the man of peace,"
MIGHT be good for middle east peace... Contrary to currrent pundit opinon...
Israelis seem to want a middle ground...something between the "Greater Israel" of the Likud fanatics...and the land for peace of the liberals.
The passing of Sharon from the picture could be just the ticket for a New Deal in the Palestinian conflict...
For one thing, the Palestinians hated Sharon PERSONALLY, and considered him to be a War Criminal...that hatred is now dissipated or diverted.
Both Israelis and Palestinians are now, finally, free of the "old guard" that forced everything to the extremes... Both Sharon and Arafat ignored the US efforts toward peace....even recently Sharon was ignoring Bush's pleas to stop the settlement building on the West Bank.
And perhaps without their "old enemy" to bomb...even Hamas will be able to temper it's hate for the government of Israel.
Bush & Co should immediately form an alliance with the Israeli left and center...and push for final boundries and a Palestinian state on the West Bank.... TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE...
Any reemergence of the Likud will be a disaster for Israel, the middle east and for Dubya's disasterous Iraq adventure...indeed, it was probably Dubya's Debacle in Iraq that convinced Sharon to abandon the Likud and move to the center... Dubya's Iraq Disaster may have scared Sharon straight on the viability of long term occupation of Arab lands! And of course the Washington Neocons all scattered like mice after the "cakewalk" scenario flopped in Baghdad....a/k/a "The Aftermath."
You will get little in the way of "Arab Opinion" concerning the passing of Mr Sharon on the American Media...I would suggest the BBC for more balanced coverage.
But the passing of Sharon...the symbol of Greater Israel on the West Bank...could be the "breakthrough" that we were hoping for when Arafat died.
The slate is wiped clean now...but only for a while...this is a gold opportunity for Washington to intervene and get the peace that was impossible while the OLD GUARD was in power in on both sides...
Is Bush up to it...?
MIGHT be good for middle east peace... Contrary to currrent pundit opinon...
Israelis seem to want a middle ground...something between the "Greater Israel" of the Likud fanatics...and the land for peace of the liberals.
The passing of Sharon from the picture could be just the ticket for a New Deal in the Palestinian conflict...
For one thing, the Palestinians hated Sharon PERSONALLY, and considered him to be a War Criminal...that hatred is now dissipated or diverted.
Both Israelis and Palestinians are now, finally, free of the "old guard" that forced everything to the extremes... Both Sharon and Arafat ignored the US efforts toward peace....even recently Sharon was ignoring Bush's pleas to stop the settlement building on the West Bank.
And perhaps without their "old enemy" to bomb...even Hamas will be able to temper it's hate for the government of Israel.
Bush & Co should immediately form an alliance with the Israeli left and center...and push for final boundries and a Palestinian state on the West Bank.... TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE...
Any reemergence of the Likud will be a disaster for Israel, the middle east and for Dubya's disasterous Iraq adventure...indeed, it was probably Dubya's Debacle in Iraq that convinced Sharon to abandon the Likud and move to the center... Dubya's Iraq Disaster may have scared Sharon straight on the viability of long term occupation of Arab lands! And of course the Washington Neocons all scattered like mice after the "cakewalk" scenario flopped in Baghdad....a/k/a "The Aftermath."
You will get little in the way of "Arab Opinion" concerning the passing of Mr Sharon on the American Media...I would suggest the BBC for more balanced coverage.
But the passing of Sharon...the symbol of Greater Israel on the West Bank...could be the "breakthrough" that we were hoping for when Arafat died.
The slate is wiped clean now...but only for a while...this is a gold opportunity for Washington to intervene and get the peace that was impossible while the OLD GUARD was in power in on both sides...
Is Bush up to it...?
Wednesday, January 4, 2006
THE DOLLAR PLUNGE...
The plunge in the Dollar might mean that reality is finally catching up with the markets...
The Big Gold Rally will have to rationalize itself sooner or later...and that would entail a spike in the dollar and a big drop in gold.
So far no one wants to do that... But sooner or later the central banks and/or the market masters and touts will have to step in...
The Big Gold Rally will have to rationalize itself sooner or later...and that would entail a spike in the dollar and a big drop in gold.
So far no one wants to do that... But sooner or later the central banks and/or the market masters and touts will have to step in...
BOND MARKET REMAINS CONFUSED...
The bond market seems unable to make heads or tails out of recent data...
Gold is still up big...and that should be bad for bonds and the dollar...
But the FED is indicating a slowing of rate hikes which would also be bad for the dollar...and perhaps even inflationary.
Meanwhile, Gold, Oil and Gas seem to be in their own world...partly based on demand from Asia, and partly based on the macro-economic disaster scenario in the US...ie the "twin" deficits and the apparent inability of Kongress to establish public policy without being bribed to do so!
A really sad start to the new year... But the market masters are still in control...so look for plenty of "Sucker Rallies" to divert attention from the economic realities looming later in the year.
Gold is still up big...and that should be bad for bonds and the dollar...
But the FED is indicating a slowing of rate hikes which would also be bad for the dollar...and perhaps even inflationary.
Meanwhile, Gold, Oil and Gas seem to be in their own world...partly based on demand from Asia, and partly based on the macro-economic disaster scenario in the US...ie the "twin" deficits and the apparent inability of Kongress to establish public policy without being bribed to do so!
A really sad start to the new year... But the market masters are still in control...so look for plenty of "Sucker Rallies" to divert attention from the economic realities looming later in the year.
HERE'S PART OF FED STATEMENT....
This is the part of the "longish" Fed Statement
that the morons on Wall Street were "mining" for rally points yesterday.
It's really so juvenile and superficial as to be quite pathetic.
And alas, the only key "incoming data point" was a MASSIVE rally in gold!
On reading the statement, it appears that the FED considers itself a key part of the WALL STREET TOUT MACHINE! So Very Sad really...
The Committee agreed that several changes in the wording of the announcement to be released after today's meeting would be appropriate. The federal funds rate had been boosted substantially, and, in the view of some members, it was now likely within a broad range of values that might turn out to be consistent with output remaining close to potential. In these circumstances, the Committee thought that policy should no longer be characterized as accommodative. Members concurred that the statement should note that the expansion remained solid despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions. While inflation and long-term inflation expectations remained contained, the Committee agreed that the announcement should indicate that possible increases in resource utilization, as well as elevated energy prices, had the potential to add to inflation pressures and that "some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance." Although future action would depend on the incoming data, this characterization of the outlook for policy was seen by most members as indicating that, given the information now in hand, the number of additional firming steps required probably would not be large. Some members thought that the word "measured" was no longer necessary, but its retention for this meeting was seen as potentially useful to preclude a possible misinterpretation that the Committee now saw a significant possibility of adjusting policy in larger increments in the near future. Wording of the announcement along these lines was not expected to have a substantial effect on market expectations for policy, though such effects were especially difficult to judge given the extensive changes being made to the statement. The members agreed that the announcement should end by noting that policy will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster the Committee's objectives.
that the morons on Wall Street were "mining" for rally points yesterday.
It's really so juvenile and superficial as to be quite pathetic.
And alas, the only key "incoming data point" was a MASSIVE rally in gold!
On reading the statement, it appears that the FED considers itself a key part of the WALL STREET TOUT MACHINE! So Very Sad really...
The Committee agreed that several changes in the wording of the announcement to be released after today's meeting would be appropriate. The federal funds rate had been boosted substantially, and, in the view of some members, it was now likely within a broad range of values that might turn out to be consistent with output remaining close to potential. In these circumstances, the Committee thought that policy should no longer be characterized as accommodative. Members concurred that the statement should note that the expansion remained solid despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions. While inflation and long-term inflation expectations remained contained, the Committee agreed that the announcement should indicate that possible increases in resource utilization, as well as elevated energy prices, had the potential to add to inflation pressures and that "some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance." Although future action would depend on the incoming data, this characterization of the outlook for policy was seen by most members as indicating that, given the information now in hand, the number of additional firming steps required probably would not be large. Some members thought that the word "measured" was no longer necessary, but its retention for this meeting was seen as potentially useful to preclude a possible misinterpretation that the Committee now saw a significant possibility of adjusting policy in larger increments in the near future. Wording of the announcement along these lines was not expected to have a substantial effect on market expectations for policy, though such effects were especially difficult to judge given the extensive changes being made to the statement. The members agreed that the announcement should end by noting that policy will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster the Committee's objectives.
Tuesday, January 3, 2006
BONDS IGNORE MASSIVE GOLD AND OIL SPIKE!
While the bond market is focused on the yada-yada of the day manufactuing "blip"...
GOLD AND OIL HAVE SPIKED BIG TIME TODAY!
When will bonds GET REAL!
The HYPER LIQUIDITY anomaly is over....convincing the bond market of THAT will be Bernanke's job for the rest of this year.
GOLD AND OIL HAVE SPIKED BIG TIME TODAY!
When will bonds GET REAL!
The HYPER LIQUIDITY anomaly is over....convincing the bond market of THAT will be Bernanke's job for the rest of this year.
JOURNAL WRITES WALL STREET'S OBITUARY
Today's WSJ was rather cautious about the outlook for stocks in 2006.
The NYT was a bit more "cautiously optimistic" and everyone seems a bit worried that the party and THE ANOMALY may be over...
Essentially the US economy is BI-POLAR...corporations are flush with cash...so much that they can hardly raise CEO compensation packages fast enough...and then there is the M&A activity too!
The consumer on the other hand is flush with debt...and false hopes about the value of his house...and the stability of his job. But he won't be able to go bankrupt unless he actually loses his jobs... Under the new Bankruptcy Law it's all about Debts vs. Wages...not Debts vs. Assets...as it was in the good old days; a few months ago.
What is really amazing and perhaps unnoticed is the MASSIVE LIQUIDITY that has been provided to corporations and "the rich"...indeed, many of the rich seem to be able to find nothing to invest in EXCEPT Bonds! And this while the FED is raising rates every month...and will CONTINUE TO DO SO well into 2006 to "absorb" the massive liquidity bubble of the last years of Greenspan's Global Bubblenomic Economy.
LIQUIDITY SIMPLY MUST BE REMOVED FROM THE SYSTEM...THAT VERY LIQUIDITY IS CAUSING THE INFLATION IN GOLD, OIL, HOUSING...AND ALAS PARADOXICALLY---IN BONDS!
Greenspan was Hell Bent to print money like there was no tomorrow, just as long as "ordinary people" could only get access to it through banks or credit cards or home equity loans. But the corporate sector was more or less given a blank check...and the corporate sector filled in some pretty big numbers...giving us the current asset inflation.
Curiously Bernanke will have to continue raising rates UNTIL the bond market recognizes the liquidity draw-down and accepts it as real.... Right now the bond market is saying: If something can't go on forever...it will!
Perhaps stocks can levitate through 2006...but bonds won't. Higher rates will "normalize" the economy. Protect the dollar and reduce gold and oil longer term.
This year will be all about scaring the pants off bond holders who have been hiding their Greenspan Hyper-Dollars in bonds for far too long...
So stop the presses ( at the FED)...it's time to write an obituary for Wall Street Bubble Years!
The NYT was a bit more "cautiously optimistic" and everyone seems a bit worried that the party and THE ANOMALY may be over...
Essentially the US economy is BI-POLAR...corporations are flush with cash...so much that they can hardly raise CEO compensation packages fast enough...and then there is the M&A activity too!
The consumer on the other hand is flush with debt...and false hopes about the value of his house...and the stability of his job. But he won't be able to go bankrupt unless he actually loses his jobs... Under the new Bankruptcy Law it's all about Debts vs. Wages...not Debts vs. Assets...as it was in the good old days; a few months ago.
What is really amazing and perhaps unnoticed is the MASSIVE LIQUIDITY that has been provided to corporations and "the rich"...indeed, many of the rich seem to be able to find nothing to invest in EXCEPT Bonds! And this while the FED is raising rates every month...and will CONTINUE TO DO SO well into 2006 to "absorb" the massive liquidity bubble of the last years of Greenspan's Global Bubblenomic Economy.
LIQUIDITY SIMPLY MUST BE REMOVED FROM THE SYSTEM...THAT VERY LIQUIDITY IS CAUSING THE INFLATION IN GOLD, OIL, HOUSING...AND ALAS PARADOXICALLY---IN BONDS!
Greenspan was Hell Bent to print money like there was no tomorrow, just as long as "ordinary people" could only get access to it through banks or credit cards or home equity loans. But the corporate sector was more or less given a blank check...and the corporate sector filled in some pretty big numbers...giving us the current asset inflation.
Curiously Bernanke will have to continue raising rates UNTIL the bond market recognizes the liquidity draw-down and accepts it as real.... Right now the bond market is saying: If something can't go on forever...it will!
Perhaps stocks can levitate through 2006...but bonds won't. Higher rates will "normalize" the economy. Protect the dollar and reduce gold and oil longer term.
This year will be all about scaring the pants off bond holders who have been hiding their Greenspan Hyper-Dollars in bonds for far too long...
So stop the presses ( at the FED)...it's time to write an obituary for Wall Street Bubble Years!
Monday, January 2, 2006
GLOBAL WARNING...? Alpha and Omega...?
Raining on the Rose Bowl Parade...?
Fires and Floods in the West at the same time...?
And NOW Hurricane ZETA!....perhaps?
Fires and Floods in the West at the same time...?
And NOW Hurricane ZETA!....perhaps?
2006: ECONOMIC REALITY STRIKES...
This year could be the year that economic reality kicks in for the American economy...
As Krugman notes today the real estate market is out of touch with reality...and rates will focus their attention even more as the year goes on.
The so called "low unemployment" is really more likely to be caused people dropping out of the labor force...than it is people "getting jobs."
Indeed, hundreds will line up for a dozen Walmart-type jobs in most markets.
The bond market has been levitating...even while gold and oil remain high...
And major companies like Ford and GM...are a multiyear lows.
Then there is the possibility that the Democrats will take over part of Washington in the '06 elections coming up... And also the fear on the Street that the Republicans will "go populus" to gain votes this summer. Of course "Republican populism" is only lies and empty promises, but the public hasn't quite caught on yet...it seems.
Exactly how Wall Street avoids economic reality FOR THE WHOLE OF 2006 is problematic... This could be the year REALITY STRIKES.
As Krugman notes today the real estate market is out of touch with reality...and rates will focus their attention even more as the year goes on.
The so called "low unemployment" is really more likely to be caused people dropping out of the labor force...than it is people "getting jobs."
Indeed, hundreds will line up for a dozen Walmart-type jobs in most markets.
The bond market has been levitating...even while gold and oil remain high...
And major companies like Ford and GM...are a multiyear lows.
Then there is the possibility that the Democrats will take over part of Washington in the '06 elections coming up... And also the fear on the Street that the Republicans will "go populus" to gain votes this summer. Of course "Republican populism" is only lies and empty promises, but the public hasn't quite caught on yet...it seems.
Exactly how Wall Street avoids economic reality FOR THE WHOLE OF 2006 is problematic... This could be the year REALITY STRIKES.
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