AL "Dr. Moonbeam" GORE...?

Al Gore is back in the news lately...

But somehow it doesn't seem right... He always seems like "damaged goods" in search of a "cause."

The global warming story could catch on...especially if this Hurricane season is a bad one. But the question is can Gore become the person to lead the Democrats...

Or will he become a sort of "Nader figure"...out on the ideological fringe...So right, but So wrong.

As a rule voters don't like candidates who are "needy" looking. Or those who seem damaged by events....

We'd rather have someone who is fresh and optimistic. Smart, yet moderate and mainstream...and "one of us."

In this regard I suspect that both Hillary and Al are not likely to be the best choices for Democrats in 2008. Ditto Kerry...

Edwards is smart, fresh and comes from the right part of the country...the south...where Democrats need a little help.

My hunch is that there is a dark horse out there...probably from a border state...or the west...who will emerge as the Democratic candidate in 2008.

But will the next Democratic President be a new Roosevelt...or be doomed to become the "New Carter?" It hardly seems possible that Americans could stand another "failed presidency."

But only a serious downturn can produce the "next Roosevelt."

Will we get that sharp of a decline? I'd say it's 50-50 at this point... Surely gold and oil are going to tell us a lot over the next year....

BOND MARKET MAYHEM...

It's down....

It's up....

No wait...

Clearly, the FED is doing EXACTLY what was predicted on this board...months ago.

Textbook Economics: 1

Hypersters: 0

Essentially, predicting this market only requires the ability to read and understand basic economics...and also remember a little bit of market history. And then stick the two together in a synthesis that makes sense.

But, shhh.... Let's let them think it's miraculous...

SCARED FED SETS GLOOMY, DOOMY TONE FOR REST OF THIS YEAR...

So why are these people smiling...?

GOLD DOWN...GOLD STOCKS UP...

In the anomaly department...

This is a very confused market... The worst case scenario is that it degenerates into a 1970's style CHOPPY MARKET....

If you think a BEAR MARKET is bad...TRY A CHOPPY MARKET THAT GOES NOWHERE IN A HURRY...

STOCK INVESTORS AND CRAPS PLAYERS ABSOLUTELY HATE A "CHOPPY TABLE"....IT'S THE PITS!

SETTING UP FOR A 2PM SELLOFF...?

Will the FED please the Street at 2 o'clock...?

YES! APPARENTLY...

ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOT...BUT WHATEVER--- THIS MARKET COULDN'T "CELEBRATE" THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEW TREAS-SEC WITH TWO DOWN DAYS...!

GOLDMAN COULD SEE TO THAT SINGLEHANDEDLY...!

MORE WAR CRIMES....?

Blame Bush not the troops...

Neocon policies have placed the military in an untenable position...

WILL FED KOW-TOW TO WALL STREET...AGAIN.

The hope seems to be that the FED will see the world through the Wall Street lens.

More easy money...and soaring asset prices forever.

Well, maybe Bernanke will try to be Greenspan-Lite.

BUT...

There will be a price to pay... Oil and Gold will soar... And the Dollar will plunge.

The notion that by putting Goldman's Paulson back in the drivers seat at Treasury...the Clinton prosperity will magically return is misguided...

This ain't 1992...when the Greenspan hyper-bubble was young and everyone knew the Internet would "change everything." Because "it always goes up."

In a sense the Internet Bubble did change everything... It put us right back in the 1970's Soup... High Debt and a Weaker Dollar.

When will Bernanke stop the fan dancing with Wall Street and just start telling the truth straightaway...?

We should learn a lot when the FED minutes come out in a few hours...

My hunch is that the minutes will be grimmer than the Street is expecting...

The inflation numbers have been bad and they are getting worse. To persist in the lie just to float the markets for another month or two simply is not good policy.

DUBYA: DESPERATE FOR MORE DISASTERS?

The way the US is acting toward Iran seems designed to cause trouble...and create conflict. But then the Bush Way seems to be: "How to lose friends and alienate people. "

But, aren't Dubya & Co in over their heads already...?

Any more troubles could flow straight into the bond and commodities markets...

AND NOT TO HIGHER PUBLIC APPROVAL RATINGS FOR THE BUSH PRESIDENCY...

IT AIN'T ABOUT 911 ANYMORE... Washington needs to move on...and get a new mojo.

ASAP.

PAULSON AND THE CHINA DEBACLE...

If you like the role of China in the US economy today...then you should love the new Treasury Secretary according to THIS LINK.

If you think China has been bad for the US economy... Well you're going to have to wait for "regime change" in Washington.

One of the many anomalies that have become part of the mythic US economy is this notion that if China revalues it's currency all will be well... And the US can then start selling them "stuff."

But the whole China adventure has been about de-industrializing the US economy to avoid high cost labor in the US.

Quite frankly the US has very little to sell China...because China and Wall Street have looted the US economy to the bone.

ANY REVALUING OF THE YUAN BY CHINA WILL BE MASSIVELY INFLATIONARY INSIDE THE US ECONOMY...

AND COULD CAUSE HUGE SHIFTS IN THE BOND MARKET...WHICH IS THE HOUSE OF CARDS HOLDING THIS ENTIRE MESS UP FOR THE TIME BEING.

TIME TO READ THE FED TEA LEAVES...

The FED can say anything it wants... And the Street will spin it for a rally.

But the truth is that the first time the FED stops raising rates...GOLD AND OIL WILL SOAR! AND THE DOLLAR WILL PLUNGE...

ANY PAUSE WILL BE "VIEWED AS" THE START OF A TREND...

RIGHT NOW THE DOLLAR CAN'T AFFORD A "PAUSE."

Not with the unfunded wars, tax cuts and corporate welfare coming out of our K-Street Kongress...

THE REAL FUN WILL START WHEN THE FED STARTS TO "CLUE IN" THE MARKETS THAT THIS IS IN FACT THE SITUATION....

AND ALL THE NONSENSE ABOUT "JOB GROWTH" AND "WAGE INCREASES" IS JUST A BUNCH OF 1970's STYLE DRIVEL...

WALL STREET AND WASHINGTON NEVER BLAME THEMSELVES FOR THEIR PROBLEMS... IT'S ALWAYS SOMEBODY ELSE TO BLAME...

NAUGHTY ARABS... GOLD BUGS... SPECULATORS... UNIONS... LAZY AMERICANS WHO WON'T WORK CHEAP ENOUGH...

Watch the shocked reaction from the FED and the Street later this year... when the FED finally has to start talking about the Dollar and the Trade Deficits...

Today's "FED Statement" will be all about JOBS! WAGE GROWTH! AND "VIGOROUS EXPANSION."

Maybe that's why so many Americans are gloomy...

The outcomes are always so predictable...THE LOOTING OF THE ECONOMY MUST CONTINUE...

NEWLY LIBERATED NATIONS WANT WAR CRIMES TRIALS....?

This could be a trend... Watch for it. And can demands for "reparations" be far behind...?

Basically it comes from calling invasions...liberations.

Amazingly the US didn't have it's Quislings in place before hand. Hitler had less trouble with France in 1944 during the aftermath of his invasion! But then again he didn't try to call it a "liberation."

GLOBAL GIVEBACKS...

Euroland plunged...

Now Asia is following...

Some serious paradigms are shifting... And those who don't get out of the way will have a "pair a dimes" left to show for it.

It's over for: "It always goes up..." Unless of course you're talking about bond yields!

Cash is King,,,,but then it always was. Bernanke has his marching orders...raise rates ALL YEAR.

AND JUST HOPE THAT IT'S ENOUGH TO STOP THE COMMODITY INFLATION THAT HAS SWEPT THE GLOBE...

AND NO...SADDLY, JUST WIPING THE NASTY GOLD BUGS EVERY TWO WEEKS WON'T SOLVE ANY LONG TERM PROBLEMS...

THE PAULSON PLUNGE....

The Dollar is an unhappy camper.... But putting a Wall Street Mega-Insider in charge of the Treasury Department may not be what the doctor ordered...!

It's amazing that Bush could even find someone to take over at this late date in the cycle...

Presiding over the coming crash is surely not an attractive job description...even as a footnote in history.

Clearly, Wall Street and Washington both are in need of some rest and recuperation by now. The hype machine has been working overtime...and few people are believing it now.

Just as $630 gold was "healthy" for the gold markets, so to a Dow around 10,000...could cure a lot of ills.

This is a market, and a nation, that needs to seriously stop and think about:

WHAT IT'S DOING...

AND WHAT IT WANTS---AN MORE IMPORTANTLY NEEDS TO DO OVER THE NEXT TEN YEARS...JUST TO SURVIVE...IF NOT TO PROSPER...

THE SPECIAL INTEREST LOOTING GAME IS ALMOST UP...

IT'S TIME TO THINK ABOUT THE NATIONAL INTEREST...NOT THE SPECIAL INTERESTS...FOR A CHANGE.

OK...? BUT WHY NOW...?

WELL, MOST PEOPLE HAVE NOTICED THAT IT'S JUST NOT WORKING IN AMERICA ANYMORE. THE WHEELS ARE COMING OFF IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE.

THE SYSTEM HAS SIMPLY BROKEN DOWN, TO THE POINT WHERE EVEN ITS APOLOGISTS ARE NO LONGER APOLOGIZING FOR WHAT'S HAPPENING THESE DAYS...

MOODY MARKETS SULKING...OVER EVERYTHING!

Well it's: "Sell in May and Go Away"....and it's still May for a while longer...

So...it seems that Wall Street is planning to spend this summer at the beach and give the amazing spin machine a needed rest.

Gold is up, but still down from it's Panic Plunge of a couple of weeks ago...

And that could be the trend into the Dog Days of Summer...for everything.

Kind of a CONTROLLED FUNK.... A directionless drift....

Sort of like a moody depressed person who'se taking their anti-depressants.

...Not good, Not bad....just "Neutral."

I'D LOOK FOR A NEUTRAL MARKET TILL LABOR DAY...AND ALL THINGS CONSIDERED THAT'S REALLY NOT TOO DEPRESSING...

GIVEN THE GEOPOLITICAL AND MACROECONOMIC BACKGROUND WE ARE STUCK WITH...NEUTRAL IS A GOOD THING.

BOND AND DOLLAR FALL ON FEARS OF SNOW DEPARTURE....

Storm Warnings for the Dollar and Bond this summer...

The departure of a major economic figure...like the Treasury Secretary...could cause a "re-think" about the bond and the dollar in major money centers around the world...

And right now...with the trouble in Iraq and Afghanistan...and the K Street Kongress...

ANY KIND OF THINKING COULD BE DANGEROUS....

STOCKS PLUNGE ON SPIN SHORTAGE...

Looks like all the spin was spun during the first part of the year...

There is really very little to say...expect "the jig is up " on Wall Street.

Even a "brokerage upgrade" couldn't turn the mood today...! And that's really hitting the bottom...

Still, as gold proved, there is nothing like are really deep, sharp sell off to improve sentiment... This market has been on a six month buying binge...and its time to sober up. The suckers are all in...at the higher prices...now it's time to drift for the rest of the summer.

And hope that no one does anything stupid...like talk about what's really going on...!

And it's time to let the real macro-economic stuff sort itself out, especially the FED rate hike policy...this is best handled in a spin free environment.

A sobering plunge would be very useful a this point.

CAN FREE TRADE BE SAVED...?

The FT takes a stab at it...

GOOD MOANING....WALL STREET.

Every week the inevitable comes a bit closer... Higher rates. Higher commodities. Higher deficits. Lower dollar...

I'm nearly a true believer in the "Gold Story" nowadays...

BARRON'S HELPS THE GOLD TOUTS..

But you could have read the same thing here, perhaps better said, months ago...!

ALLIGATOR ALLEY...

In Florida...alligators are as common as squirrels!

Where there is water in the south of Florida...there are alligators...and they are not the friendliest of animals... Walking near swamps or rivers can be dangerous...

Of course, off in the grass you have the poisonous snakes to worry about...

Perhaps it's best to just stay put under an awning on Collins Avenue...?

WELCOME NON-US BLOG READERS...!

The viewers of Gloom and Doom are only 59% US based...

On any given day...one third of the readers of this blog are from outside the US.

Clearly, people from outside the US want to get the real feel for what's going on in the American economy from a NON HYPED SOURCE...

A SOURCE THAT SIMPLY TELLS THE TRUTH...WITHOUT REGARD TO THE "OFFICIAL WALL STREET STORY OF THE DAY..."

A SOURCE THAT PAYS DUE RESPECT TO ESTABLISHED ECONOMIC LAWS AND PRINCIPALS...NO MATTER WHERE THEY MIGHT LEAD...

A SOURCE THAT DOESN'T KOW-TOW TO ANY ELITE...

AND THAT DOESN'T HAVE A PERSONAL "AGENDA," EXCEPT TO FIGURE OUT WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING BEHIND THE WHITE NOISE OF THE MEDIA AND THE INTERNET SCAM ARTISTS...AND THE HYPESTERS...AND PUMP AND DUMPERS OF THE MESSAGE BOARD SET.

WELCOME HOME...

YOUR HOMEPAGE FOR A TRUSTED SOURCE...

WITH A GROUND FLOOR VIEW OF THE US ECONOMY...24.7.365.

ARE STOCK PRICES SUSTAINABLE IN A "NON-BULL" MARKET?

The story of stocks over the last twenty years has been that they always go up.

Anyone doubting that was, over time, made into a true believer...

But now the world economy seems to be entering a period similar to the late 60's and early 70's...

An unwinnable war, deficits as far as the eye can see, a weak dollar, and interest rates that are still low by historical standards...

In the 1970's, no one believed that "stocks always go up."

It was the job of the Volker FED to made them into believers... Rates were hiked to unheard of levels...12%, 16%...even 20% in some cases... People began to "believe in" the dollar again, despite the disasterous abandonment of Bretton Woods in 1971.

Then came Reagan, and the New Reaganomics of Free Trade, and Union Busting...and stocks were off to the races...

THE ERA OF WARREN BUFFETT AS NEO-GENIUS OF THE MARKETS HAD BEGUN.

This all lasted from about 1982 to 2000....

Then cracks started to appear... The Internet Bubble crashed...and Greenspan tried to "save it" with his 1% hyperliquid monetary policies...

Then came the inevitable home price bubble...

Then, the 911 disaster, and the follow up foreign policy disasters of Dubya and the Neocons in both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Finally, the trade deficits were now seemingly "structural," as the New Hyperliquidity financed massive over expansion in China and India...helped by the new digitalized economy of the Internet...even as US corporations left the US for good.

THEN, SOME REALLY "BAD STUFF" KICKED IN...

SPECULATIVE MONEY BEGAN TO LEAK INTO COMMODITIES INVESTMENTS...

HOUSING WAS NO LONGER ENOUGH TO CONTAIN THE MASSES OF NEWLY PRINTED MONEY FROM THE FED...

THE SPEUCULATIVE FRENZY WAS OUT OF CONTROL!

OIL BEGAN TO RISE...THEN GOLD... THEN OTHER COMMODITIES...

All seemingly, according to the media, "the result" of the China and India expansion...but, aided by speculators who saw the HYPER-LIQUIDITY for what it was...A POTENTIAL DISASTER FOR THE DOLLAR...

NOW, THE QUESTION IS SIMPLY THIS...

IS THE "STOCK MARKET STORY" STILL BELIEVEABLE...?

A LOT HAS HAPPEN SINCE THE BUBBLE DAZE OF THE 1990's...WHEN EVERYONE KNEW THAT..."IT ALWAYS GOES UP."

SO ARE STOCK PRICES SUSTAINABLE IN OUR NEW..."NON-BULL MARKET."

I DON'T THINK SO...


LIKE IN THE LATE 1970's, WE MAY BE ENTERING, NOT A BEAR MARKET FOR STOCKS, BUT A NON-BULL MARKET...

AND THAT IS THE WORSE KIND FOR INVESTORS...BECAUSE IT'S UP, THEN IT'S DOWN THEN ITS UP THEN DOWN... ETC.

But, we do know a few things for sure...

Bernanke will BE FORCED to keep raising rates to protect the dollar from the effects of the deficits, and the massive "over-promising" of our Korrupt K-Street Kongress...with their Tax Cuts, Unfunded Wars, and give-aways to corporate cronies...

BUT IF BERENANKE GOES TO 8% ON FED FUNDS...AS I THINK HE WILL...

THE DOW COULD GO BELOW 8000...AS I THINK IT WILL.

ARE STOCK PRICES SUSTAINABLE IN OUR NEW "NON-BULL" MARKET...?

THE ANSWER IS NO. DEFINITELY NOT...

DOZIER: A CBS REPORTER IN CRITICAL CONDITION AFTER IRAQ BOMBING!

The Gloom and Doom just keeps on coming in Iraq and Afghanistan...!

Another gas spike and Dubya could be in the 20% range on approval by the public.

AFGHANISTAN RIOTS....

More proof that "it isn't working" for the Bush/Neocon foreign policy...

Muslim people simply will not tolerate western imposed "puppet governments" in their region...

Once that FACE is recognized...then some progress might be possible.

So, the issue of the West Bank, and Israel's occupation of Palestine...is the key.

As long as the occupation of Palestinian land continues and the shell game goes on between Palestinians and Israelis...NOTHING THE WEST DOES WILL BE SEEN AS LEGITIMATE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

While many of US backed the Cold War autocracies are still in power around the region...The new Western "Democratization" will be seen simply as a Trojan Horse attempt to establish "Un-Muslim" puppet governments in areas of interest to the US and it's almost sole ally in the region; Israel.

WILL DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT BE THE NEXT ROOSEVELT OR THE NEXT CARTER...?

Shocking possibilities explored.... Coming soon...to this blog.

MASSACRES AND VILLAGE BOMBING...

It's clear that the Iraq War is ending the way the VietNam War ended...

...with massacres and village bombings as the final desperate measures to achieve results that no one can fully express or remember anymore...

And that have been, more or less, reduced to political abstractions...like "We are winning. " Or, "We can't afford to lose."

As a rule, by the time someone says: "We cant afford to lose"...they have already lost.

Iraq can and will govern itself after a US pullout...just has Iraq has governed itself for the last 4000 years...! All wIthout US intervention....or invasion.

The Iraqis are experienced in matters of government much more than Dubya and the Neocons give them credit for.

When Iraqi women want their "rights" they will get their rights.

When the Iraqi people want a change of regime they will organize a change of leadership...as they did 4000 years ago...and as they will now...all without the "help" of invaders from thousands of miles across the sea.

IT'S OVER IN IRAQ...THE REGION IS MUCH LESS STABLE. AND THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING THE US MILITARY CAN DO THERE THAT WILL HELP THE SITUATION...EXCEPT TO PULL OUT; AND LET THE IRAQIS DECIDE THEIR FATE ON THEIR OWN.

And alas, I would bet that very few Iraqis support the Israeli annexation of the West Bank...now or before...

So the real "secret" purpose of the war...to wit: Installing a Pro-American, Pro-Israle government is less likely now that it was before the war...or any time in the recent future.

TOO BAD THE IRAQ WAR DOESN'T HAVE A DELETE BUTTON...

The Great Neocon Mistake continues to spiral out of control...

..............................

RUSSIAN VIEW OF CURRENCY SITUATION...?

INVISIBLE UFOs VISITING EARTH....?

Well if THIS LINK is correct...it's possible! LoL...

Who knows what we don't know...

Surely the realm of the knowable has not been totally exhausted yet...

And perhaps the surface has just been scratched...? My hunch is that today's modern physics will seem very "quaint" two hunderd years from now...

REVISED SIDE BAR...

I've revised the side bar links to include additional sites regarding bonds, the dollar and commodities...since that is likely to be where the action is in coming months.

I've also removed a few things that weren't worth having...and were just taking up space.

The books links remain, including a link to this blog's "storefront" at Amazon... which you can use both to support this blog...and engage in a little self indulgence... (Great Books a fair prices...!)

Note also that the "images" in the side bar are also "secret links"...well, not really secret if you know to clink on them... The gold coin is a link to the FED for example. The Flag and the globe at the bottom are links to ALL newspapers in the US... and the World respectively.

The side bar is really a working tool for researching key information during the business day. Of course there are others...but this is enough to get the big picture in a hurry.

It's also a good reason to bookmark this blog and come back daily...especially if you're sick of the crackpot theorists, touts and other screwball notions you find on the Web everyday. (Not counting my UFO posting above! LoL.)

Most of what you read here is based on real economics. Nothing is intended as a tout. And I would never be so crude as to insult the reader by recommending anything that I have a direct financial interest in.... No "buy this now" nonsense....

For the most part you can draw your own conclusions. I do realize that many people want specific recommendations...but that's not my style.

And by taking this "long view" and a more "macro economic" approach...most of what is here is "right and rational" eventually....

Of course the markets can stay irrational longer than the average investor can stay solvent.

Have a great holiday...and support & bookmark this blog....24.7 since 1999.

FED WILL RAISE RATES AT EVERY MEETING THIS YEAR--GET USED TO IT.

The new inflation data show what most people already know... Inflation is starting up big time.

The notion of "one and done" is now discredited... "One then some" is more like it.

I seriously doubt that the numbers will give Bernanke any room to stop raising rates this year...

If he would have the guts to do 50bp at one meeting...then maybe a pause could be worked in... In fact, that "brave action" would re-establish FED CREDIBILITY ...as NOT MERELY BEING THE STOOGE OF WALL STREET...

BUT BERENANKE SIMPLY DOESN'T HAVE THAT KIND OF COURAGE AT THIS POINT IN HIS BRIEF TENURE AT THE FED.

So...expect rate hikes of 25bp...at each and every FED meeting this year...

The "neutral rate" is probably around 6% to 7% on Fed Funds... And with an economy growing at 5%++...that's not really out of the question given the defict and dollar environments.

SORRY BOYS AND GIRLS, NO JOY ON WALL STREET FOR A WHILE...

BUT HEY, THERE'S ALWAYS THOSE "BROKERAGE UPGRADES!" ...LOL

GOLD PUNISHED AND HUMBLED...OIL...? NOT. GOLD/PRICE THEORY BACK?

I supposed that the whole purpose of the recent GOLD PANIC was to bring down ALL COMMODITIES...including oil.

But that hasn't happen... While Gold has been humbled and the speculators punished. Oil is very near it's all time high...!

So what's the purpose...

In the 1930's Roosevelt briefly flirted with the Gold/Price Theories of Professor George F. Warren of Cornell University...Warren was an agricultural economist who was trying to end the deflation in agricultural commodities at the time.

This so called GOLD/PRICE THEORY stated that if you can "control" gold prices you can essentially control everything else.

Gold being the "king pin" commodity...and everything else being priced "off of it." Sort of, a price "escalator" with gold at the top and other goods on the bottome steps...but all moving in tandem...all following the price of gold...up or down.

The "theory" was tried during the Depression to stop the deflation...but nations still on the gold standard, particularly France, were outraged and the experiment was dropped as a failure...before it could even be fully tried out.

BUT NOW, THE GOLD PRICE THEORY MAY BE BACK! THIS TIME TO STOP THE CURRENT ASSET INFLATION.

But, likely it will fail...again...just as in the 1930's.....

There is very little on the Internet about the Gold/Price Theory...I have a link to the Warren papers at Cornell, but mostly the entire Gold/Price theory has been forgotten...or. is a couple of paragraphs in the economic histories of the Roosevelt Years.

BUSH/BLAIR WILL EVENTUALLY BE TRIED FOR THEIR CRIMES

Just as Skilling and Lay have been tried for their's...

Do Bush and Blair really think that they can leave office and the world community will say: Oh well, live and learn...

Once the protection of office is removed, the international court system will start demanding justice for Bush and Blair...which unfortunately is not available, short of invasion, for a sitting head of state.

Indeed, any Democratic presidential candidate should be asked about future extradition plans in the event of War Crimes trials being held or demanded by the International Community.

Of course the final outcome is not known in Iraq as yet. But the possible outcomes are bad, worse and horrendous! Little consolation for those behind the worse political/military disaster since Hitler invaded Poland in 1939.

AIDS at 25: IT CAME FROM YOUR UNCLE'S MONKEY...?

OK great...I'll believe anything they tell me.

But why did AIDS break out in New York, Los Angeles and Miami...at almost the same time...? Why didn't it go from New York to New Jersey to Pittsburg...for example?

Ahhh...OK the naughty air steward theory... Right?

Or perhaps, a Cold War experiment...of a fatal sexually transmitted disease..."salted" into a population that "only has sex with each other." Perhaps?

But how was it "salted" into the gay populations of those three cities...?

Ahhh...?

Hmmmm....?

Maybe the Hepatitis "B" vaccine trials...? Perhaps?

And why Haiti...? No monkeys. No Gays. No naughty airline employees to speak of... But plenty of people who only have sex with each other...

This is one dog that had best be left alone...

COMMODITIES REBOUND...

Dont take my word for it...drive out to your local gas station...!

Yeah, it's back up... How exactly does anyone "win" under these circumstances...?

HAPPY DAZE ARE HERE AGAIN...

So, is a $32 dollar drop in gold a "cure all" ....or what...?

Happy Daze are here again... Or are they...?

This is a market and an economy that can churn-churn-chrun merrily on it's way....as long as gas stays cheap (er) and the gold bugs don't get cocky...and start smarting off!

Still, it seems:

Happy Daze are Queer again....is the best description of today's action.

ENRON PERJURY...?

Did Lay and Skilling lie under oath in the Enron "self-defense" portion of the trial...? Well lets hope not!

Consider:

There is a reason that "most" defendants don't take the witness stand on their own behalf...and that is because it's their attorney's DUTY to see to it that LIES ARE NOT TOLD UNDER OATH...IN TRIAL.

If a Defendant wants to commit perjury, and absolutely insists on it, ...it is the obligation of their attorney to resign immediately...and not be party to the perjury; or to the suborning of perjury.

You've probably seen cases where an attorney will resign "mysteriously"....? Well, that could be the reason....

A defendant simply can not "throw it against the wall and see if it sticks" in most criminal cases...

And that applies to low level cases...AND HIGH LEVEL WHITE COLLAR CRIMES...EQUALLY.

I personally found Lay and Skilling to be very bad witnesses on their own behalf...but when your back is to the wall...anything goes I suppose.... A just result by this jury.

SOME BREATHING ROOM FOR GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS...

The Gold Fever may have broken...but the issue of commodities is still key to the FED and the economy.

My hunch is that rates will rise considerably...till they are truly "normalized" to an economy growing at 5%+...

Perhaps, 6% or 7% would be "normal" in this environment... The speculators have been humbled...but the real issues remain.

GDP GIVES FED PERMISSION TO RAISE RATES FOR REST OF YEAR!

The notion of a "pause" is out of the question. And "one and done" is a sick joke!

RALLY ON BROKERAGE UPGRADES...?

Yesterday GM? Today Walmart?

Rallies on brokerage upgrades are really rallies about nothing... Sort of Wall Street's "default position" when there is little real news...or the real news is conveniently being ignored.

The corporate equivalent is "announcing a buy back"...but I don't want to give anyone ideas...

TRADERS EXHAUSTED. COMMODITIES RETURN TO FUNDAMENTALS.

The massively over-bought condition could be over, or ending soon...

Now it's time to go back and look at the fundamentals of supply and demand.

And the structurally weak dollar...and what can be done about it; if anything.

The ball is really back in the FED's court now.....are they going to kow-tow to the traders on Wall Street, or do their job and control inflation and protect the dollar.

They're on the horns of one Hell of a dilemma really.

GOLD NEWSLETTERS...

In THE LINK one gold newsletter writer's "explanation" of recent events...

But in truth, you have to say that the SPECULATION IN GOLD had gone to dangerous levels... This simply will not stand...as Poppy Bush once said...(Yeah, I know, Boo. Hiss). The result would have been $6 gas! and the collapse of the economy as we have known it.

Yet, I suspect that gold can go back up...but not as a moonshot. Not as a "no-brainer." But as a sober reflection of the problems with the dollar...LONGER TERM.

Indeed, the meteoric rise in gold was a WAKEUP CALL to the central banks...

And especially the FED---that the GREENSPAN HYPER-LIQUIDITY DAZE IS OVER! AND INDEED, IT LASTED WAY TOO LONG!

It's either HARD MONEY OR HARD ASSETS... IT'S JUST THAT SIMPLE.

IT'S TIME TO CHOOSE AT THE FED.

RISKY ASSET SELLOFF...

THIS STORY says that "risky assets" are selling off...

As a result investors are buying--US BONDS!

But what is riskier...US BONDS...OR GOLD?

Right now...bonds look pretty risky...with higer rates inevitable.,,and $70 oil and a housing bubble still looming

But then perhaps that explains the big gold sell off by the market masters...who are known to be "shills for the FED" occasionally...

ASIAN STOCK DROP ON BIRD FLU...AND BANKING FEARS

It's nice to know that reality still means something...somewhere in the world...

This major surgery on the dollar...by means of a monster gold sell off...is just too strange to be believeable.

Somehow, today's wild gold action all seems "necessary" ---but will it be sufficient to actually change anything...? I doubt it...not in the long run.

We didn't get into this "fix" overnight... And a big one day plunge in gold won't change that...

ALL GOLD STOCKS WILL REVISIT ONE YEAR LOWS!!

Even as gold, the metal, stays close to it's all time high...

Hey it's nuts... But so are a lot of things in the markets these days...

This gold "no-brainer" will be punished...severely

Because the dollar simply must be saved WITHOUT RAISING INTEREST RATES "TOO FAR..."

Sort of: The operation was a success, but the patient died...

That can ONLY be achieve by driving down gold and gold shares FAR OUT OF PROPORTION TO THEIR IMPORTANCE!

DOWN DEMON GOLD! DOWN.

TO SAVE THE DOLLAR ON THE CHEAP! AND GET BERNANKE OFF THE HOOK FOR RAISING RATES "TOO FAR."

You heard it here first...

BERNANKE'S HOUSING BUBBLE LIVES!!

That 'otta put a 100 points on the Dow...

HEAD FAKE GOLD RALLY...

Yikes! Yesterday's Head Fake Gold Rally was so quick that even the Suckers couldn't get back in!

Settle down boys... At least give the suckers a Chinaman's Chance to lose their money!

Or was it all short covering by the market masters...? And not for "public consumption...?"

SELL THAT GOLD! SELL IT DOWN GOOD!

Clearly the market masters are in control of stocks and commodities now...

With the commodities speculators in full retreat...and the news "spinnable" there is little hope for gold or gold stocks until...a major oversold condition is achieved...

BUT A ONCE IN A GENERATION BUYING OPPORTUNITY IS COMING...AS THE DOLLAR IS STRUCTRUALLY WEAK AND GETTING WEAKER...

ALL THE TRADING IS BEING DONE ON "HEADLINES,"

NOT MACRO-ECONOMICS.

THREE DOLLAR GAS SPIKES RV SALES

Yes Virginia we are in LaLa Land now... But we have been for some time with the financial markets...

Patience. Reality will come back into fashion...it always does.

WILL GOLD START TRACKING STOCKS...?

Gold often moves opposite of stocks and bonds.... As inflation heats up...stocks and bonds go down and gold goes up...

But now there is a reverse logic situation that says BAD NEWS ON THE ECONOMY IS GOOD FOR STOCKS...because it means the FED can quit raising rates soon...this oddly drives down gold as an inflation hedge...

But sometimes gold and stocks can rally together on the notion that: "It's all getting better in investment land."

SO NOW, STOCKS AND BONDS "RALLY" ON BAD NEWS...LIKE TODAY'S DURABLE GOODS ORDERS. But gold falls.

Stocks and Bonds are very inflation sensitive.

But gold can actually fall on inflation news: IF the FED is seen to be "on the job."

Stocks find many ways to rally. But, Gold always finds many ways to fall....

Conclusion:

THERE ARE MORE PEOPLE OUT THERE "SPINNING STOCKS" THAN THERE ARE "SPINNING GOLD."

AND IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE WHO GETS THAT ALL IMPORTANT "MORNING HEADLINE!"

BIRD FLU DOOMSDAY SCENARIO!!

Clearly, this is going to have to be handled like SARS a few years ago...

To "just let it spred" would be a

Doomsday Scenario


----for everyone!

BACK OFFICE BLUES CONTINUES...

CASH WAS KING TODAY...

But it all depends on the B-Man coming across with higer rates....on bonds, CDs, Corporates...etc.

WITH HIGHER RATES GO FOR THE CASH...FORGET THE GOLD...AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT.

IS THE SUCKER FLUSH OVER IN GOLD...?

Well who knows...probably.

It would be easier to be gloomy IF the dollar had ANYTHING GOING FOR IT...!

BUT IT DOESN'T...

Mr B has still got to show us what he's got... And Foreigners have to like the DOLLAR AND THE US ECONOMY... And it is not clear that both of those are on the same wave length....


For Example, A stronger dollar may come at the price of weaker exports from foreign economies; as the US economy cools...

There is always "three hands" in any economic arugment...that's why they call it the dismal science...

TODAY'S BUY BACK OF GOLD STOCKS WAS WELCOME...IT COULD BE A LITTLE SHORT COVERING...BUT GOLD IS A CURRENCY PLAY AND NOT MERELY AN ECONOMY PLAY...AND MY HUNCH IS THE CURRENCY SIDE WAS REASSERTING ITSELF TODAY.

P.S.....NO I WAS WRONG! IT WAS JUST SHORT COVERING BY THE MARKET MASTERS...GOLD COULD BE DRIVEN BACK TO $400 AT THIS RATE OF DECLINE... THE DOLLAR SIMPLY MUST BE SAVE---ON THE CHEAP---AND DRIVING DOWN GOLD IS THE WAY TO DO IT...

I REMAIN A TRUE BELIEVER IN THE FUNDAMENTAL WEAKNESS OF THE DOLLAR...UNTIL THE B-MAN SHOWS ME DIFFERENTLY...

SO, I WILL HOLD GOLD UNTIL THEY START SETTING IT OUT FOR MORNING "TRASH PICKUP" AT THE WORLD'S CENTRAL BANKS!!

US HOUSING BUBBLE RUNNIN' ON FUMES...

The last gasp of the US House Bubble is finally here...

Indeed, it seems that the entire affair has been held up by the speculators for some time now.

And they are all wishing they left yestderday... But even yesterday may have been too late, as stocks of unsold housing pile up, foreclosures soar, and buyers become pickier by the day.

Whatever support the House Bubble gave to the US economy...for example, through home equity loans to pay off credit card debt, etc.....IT'S OVER.

Between higher gas prices, lower house prices, the new bankruptcy laws and punk wages...American Retailing should be in a downward plunge soon... And that's not mentioning the recent really bad weather in the Eastern part of the US....during the middle of May.

WHEN DID GOLD OVER $600 BECOME "DEPRESSING" FOR GOLD BUGS?

HOW SAFE ARE BONDS...?

In a market where "long term" means..."after lunch"...bonds may be a safe alternative to stocks and commodities...

But, for those of us with longer term memories that thinking is a little bit nuts.

Yesterday, the yada yada was that stocks were falling because of the FEDs new found inflation fears...and higher rates would mean lower demand for commodities...ergo, bonds and cash were the investments "du jour."

In the longer term, FED rate hikes will raise the future yeild on bonds...thus lowering the value of currently priced bonds... Which means that current bonds must decline in price to come up with the now higher yield requirements.

So, stocks and commodities lose now...bonds lose later.

The notion that the FED is "doing somthing" about inflation; and therefore bonds are a worthy alternative...is nice...but, only for newbies in the bond market, not current holders.

In truth, the real issue is how far behind the curve is the FED?

AND can the dollar be saved by higher rates...or is it already too late?

The entire affair turns on your ultimate view of the dollar...long term and short term.

In the 1970's, the dollar plunged and gold rose...but the world economy was not ready for a new reserve currency...so, the dollar was painfully rehabilitated over a decade of higher rates.

Today, there are ALTERNATIVES TO THE DOLLAR... The Euro and the Yen for sure...and possibily in time the Chinese currency. There are also baskets of commodities and ETFs available to hedge currency risks that were not readily available in the 1970's.

SO, THE DOLLAR IS NOT THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN...AND THAT COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD.

HIGER RATES BY THE FED MAY NOT BE THE CURE ALL FOR THE DOLLAR THIS TIME.

CHEAP GAS FOR THIS SUMMER...

OK we have the COMMODITIES CRASH...

When do we get the cheap gas back...?

GOLD PANIC CONTINUES...CASH IS KING.

The gold panic selloff will continue. But stocks may join the fray this week.

Essentially, EVERYTHING is over bought...and with FED tightening...the "scarce commodity" is cash.

But the FED has a long long way to go before all the excess cash is drained from the system...and with an expensive and unfunded war budget, the deficits and the tax cuts, and with the deindustrialized US economy floundering in international waters with no hope of re-starting...

Still "virtual cash" is disappearing every day as assets from homes to stocks to bonds to commodities PLUNGE IN VALUE...so the "crash" is the FED's Friend! Never under-estimate the power of a crash to drain liquidity from the markets...suddenly the once despised "cash" looks very very good.

Just ask someone stuck with a house they can't sell!

BUT THE GOLD STORY IS NOT DEAD.

Gold simply became a PANIC BUY this year...and now it has to become the PANIC SELL.

AND THAT MAY TAKE A WHILE! THE TRUE BELIEVERS, LIKE MYSELF, WILL NOT SELL UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES...

THE NEWBIES AND SPECULATORS ARE SELLING HAND OVER FIST...AND LOSING MONEY ALL THE WAY...AS IS APPROPRIATE FOR SPECULATORS.

But all the hot money is not out of the gold market yet...it may have to retrace ALL OF IT'S GAINS...BACK DOWN TO $390 OR LESS.

SO IT'S STILL A LONG WAY DOWN...AND CD's ARE GETTING MORE ATTRACTIVE BY THE DAY...AS THE FED SIMPLY WILL NOT BE "ALLOWED" TO STOP RAISING RATES.

THE VERY MINUTE THE FED STOPS THE RATE HIKES GOLD WILL SOAR BACK UP...!

THE GOLD PANIC CONTINUES...CASH IS KING...THE FED HAS IT'S MARCHING ORDERS...MAYBE IN A WEEK OR SO OF CURRENT PANIC SELLING...GOLD WILL BECOME A "NIBBLE" AGAIN.

WATCH THE FUN AND GAMES...!

NEW PM PROMISES 'MAXIMUM FORCE' IN IRAQ...

Just what Iraq needs. More violence. More force. More Killing...

Gee, Why didn't we think of that....?

This new government has the shelf life of a loaf of bread.... I give them two weeks before the wheels fall off...

A good start for a government would be to choose people who can ACTUALLY walk around outside the Green Zone...with enough public support to protect them... Surely not ALL Iraq leaders are sequestered inside the Green Zone under protection of the occupation forces...

Bush needs his "De Gaulle"....but all he has in Iraq are his "Quislings."

IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITIONS...

Since the "bomb" is a 1940's technology...

One wonders where Iran will want to go next! FM Radio! Color TV! Commercial Jet Travel!

They must be stopped now before it's too late!

They might even want the "secrets" to microwaving food!

In short, Technological Racism won't fly...

If they make a bomb...it will be too late... But to deny Muslims the "right to know" things...smacks of those laws in the Old South that prohibited "teaching Negroes how to read."

The notion that if you aquire certain "technological abilities" we're going to "bomb you back into the "Stone Age" is problematic...and possibily nuts.

I'd like to be more optimistic...but that's about the best Dubya and the Neocons have going.

I WANT TO SEE THE DA VINCI CODE...

So I can hate it with conviction and authority...

Still, the DaVinci Code proves what many born-again Christian men have known all along...

Church is a good place to pick up chicks!

Read, Think, Write: CabinFeverBooks.Com

AFGHANISTAN BECOMING CONVENTIONAL WARFARE?

Afghanistan is starting to resemble conventional warfare...

Shades of the Russian Communists, the British Imperialists , the Mongul Hoards and Alexander the Great, et al...all of whom tried and failed to control that desolate and wild place.

Thank God there's no oil there...

So, why exactly are we there again...?

Oh, I remember, Womens' Rights! And Dubya's need to hide his failure to prevent 911 by a distracting "War of Revenge."

But Alas, Afghanistan is not Grenada or Haiti...

LOW WAGE AMERICA...

This dialogue on NBR recently regarding American Jobs...

GHARIB: That`s an interesting point. But, Darren, you`ve spent months traveling around the country and doing lots of research about the workplace. As you reflect on the research that you`ve done, what is the most striking change that you`re seeing in the American workplace?

GERSH: I was really struck by just how many low-wage jobs there are in our economy and they`re really growing fast. There are about 28 million people who make about nine bucks an hour. And if you look, the low-wage job categories, janitors, home health workers, they`re growing the quickest. So some economists are starting to say we`re having a polarization of our labor force. We`ve got the high-tech folks do great and the low-wage people aren`t keeping up and they`re starting to have low- wage careers. They don`t just work low-wage jobs for a little while and then move up.

IS GOLD DOWN...OR IS THE DOLLAR UP...

THINK ABOUT IT...BECAUSE THE WHOLE AFFAIR TURNS ON WHICH IS WHICH...

The recent "sell off" in gold...may have been a snap back in the dollar from a very very over sold position.

Dollar and Gold are really joined at the lip... Whenever a pundit talks about one...they are really talking about the other as well...whether they know it or not.

GOLD STOCKS: LET 'EM DROP LIKE A STONE!

Gold Stocks have sold off hugely in the last few weeks...

LET 'EM DROP LIKE A STONE....EVEN GIVING BACK ALL THE GAINS FOR THIS YEAR.

Gold recently became a dreaded "no brainer" ...

And Mr Market abhors nothing more than a no brainer!

IT IS ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL THAT ALL THE NEWBIES, AND SOME OF THE LONG TIME HOLDERS, BE SCARED OUT OF THE GOLD MARKET...!

And naturually, since so many people are "true believers"...that's kinda hard to do...

Hence the scary plunge in gold shares.... To reverse a no-brainer requires an extra big drop to "convince" people that it's time to get out.

BUT;

As long as gold, the metal, stays strong...in the wake of strong Asian oil demand...and with a structurally weaker dollar, (which is currently oversold)...

GOLD STOCKS REMAIN A GOOD INVESTMENT...

SO, A GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY IS GETTING CLOSER WITH EVERY BIG DOWN DAY...

What would change all that...?

A Structurally stronger dollar... But that just ain't in the cards...short term or long term.

And if the FED continues raising rates "too much" ...to say, 7% or 8%, on the ten year bond...

Well, we'll have to take a second look when that happens...but that's simply not the world we live in today...

An 8% bond would put the stocks in a 1970's style doomsday funk...and I doubt the FED wants to go there in an election year...

Or any year for that matter!

THE BOOMER ECONOMY...

I'd call the US economy the: "Boomer Economy."

Why....? Well....

Everything's great so far... But it seems to be all down hill from here...

And whats really "missing" is: A FUTURE!

YET ANOTHER BUSHIAN TOP GUN MOMENT IN IRAQ...?

Can a nation exist when there is no real "community of interest...?"

I doubt it.

The three factions of Iraq have so little in common--except of course for their mutual contempt of each other--that I doubt ANY truly viable government will take root...

The Kurds have a once in several centuries opportunity to form their homeland/nation state... So in that regard they are very like the Ukrainians of the Soviet Era...

Arn they ARE NOT going to miss this singlar opportunity.

The Shia and the Sunni have nothing but hate for each other...and their only "common cause" is their mutual contempt for Bush/Israel/Neocons/Zionists, and the despised Western "Crudaders."

HATING BUSH CAN BE A POWERFUL UNIFYING FORCE...BUT YOU CAN'T FOUND A NATION ON IT!

Further, for any government, to be viable, is going to have to come out from behind the blast barriers; and out of their concrete bunkers...to be seen as "legitimate"...SOONER OR LATER.

AS LONG AS IT TAKES THE POWER OF THE ENTIRE US MILITARY TO PROTECT THEM... THE QUESTION REMAINS: IS THIS "NEW GOVERNMENT" REAL? OR MERELY A BUNCH OF QUISLINGS AND WAR OPPORTUNISTS.

LETS JUST SAY...I THINK WE'RE HAVING ANOTHER BUSHIAN "TOP GUN MOMENT" HERE...

HUGE DOLLAR RALLY WILL MAKE GOLD A BUY SOONER OR LATER.

The big dollar rally is expected. Because the fate of the western world depends on it...but is it sustainable?

Everyone accepts that the FED will be raising rates again and again... And gold has plunged..even while oil traders are from Missouri on the outcome.

This extreme volitility in currenies is not desireable...but as we are at an inflexion point unavoidable.

GOLD SIMPLY MUST BE DRIVEN DOWN MORE...TO PRESERVE THE LIFE STYLE OF THE AMERICAN CONSUMING PUBLIC...

IF THAT TAKES HIGHER RATES...SO BE IT.

STILL, GOLD WILL LIKELY BECOME A BUYING OPPORTUNITY...AS IT IS LIKELY TO BE OVERSOLD ON THE PROSPECTS OF A STRONG DOLLAR BASED SOLELY ON INTEREST RATES ALONE....

THERE ARE STILL THE TWIN DEFICITS WHICH ARE GETTING WORSE NOT BETTER WITH THE NEW BUSH TAX CUTS...AND THE NEVERENDING WARS AND CONFLICTS WITH OIL PRODUCING NATIONS.

IN SHORT, THE DOLLAR RALLY IS REAL...BUT FAKE. OPPORTUNITIES WILL ARISE AS THIS ANOMALY PROGRESSES LATER NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...

HOW LONG STOCKS CAN "FAKE IT" IS ANOTHER STORY...

Stay Tuned...

OIL TRADING ON LATEST YADA YADA...

The ultimate in short term thinking...

GREENSPAN SAYS "BOOM OVER!"

The world markets seem to be adjusting to higher rates from the FED...

But the rise in bonds may be premature... After all, the FED hasn't done anything yet...and raising rates will only drive down bond prices as bond yeild must increase...to match the new paradigm.

I don't think people are still fully digesting the consequences of higher rates...right now they are just dumping oil and gold... And assuming that a minor tweek will solve all the dollars problems.

But if high rates were the only variable...Latin American and African countries would be the reserve currencies of the global economy.

STREET SEEKS MORE JOY, LESS "REALITY."

Can Wall Street ever be happy again...? Of course. Without constant optimism Wall Street couldn't exist...

Optimism, not Returns to Shareholders is what keeps Wall Street going... How else can you explain Americans fixation on losing money in the markets?

IS AFGHANISTAN THE NEW AFGHANISTAN?

Obviously the Jihadi are moving their assets to Afghanistan now that the Iraq situation is problematic...

Afghanistan has less population, is less developed and has more safe havens... The danger being that Pakistan finally drops the vail of support for Dubya and the Neocons...and starts to openly support the New Taliban...which are actually the Old Pakistani Taliban!

The US support of India has made Pakistan less stable and more likely to feel "liberated" in the way that Dubya and the Neocons have "liberated" Iran recently to do and say whatever it wants without fear of Western punishment.

DOW: COYOTE UGLY...

Ugh...THAT was UGLY

Asia plays Simon Says....follows Street down. Clearly, the Sucker Season is over...and the liquidity party is ending...

WELCOME INTERNATIONAL BLOG SURFERS...

Gloom and Doom probably gets more than it's share of International Viewers.

This blog is viewed every day in North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and India... And is occasionally viewed in Africa.

Alas, Antarctica and China (non Hong Kong) remain elusive...

Welcome International viewers... Bookmark this blog, and come back daily for the news and views you likely won't hear in the WSJ or other American MSM...

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BERNANKE BITES BULLET...RATES WILL RISE.

MARKETS ACCEPT HIGHER RATE INEVITABILITY...

So rates are going up...way up. And the markets seem to have accepted the reality of that... So bonds rose...amazingly...even though higher rates will devalue current bond values.

Bonds valued at current rates...simply aren't worth as much as new bonds that pay more because their rates are higher...

BUT THIS SCENARIO COULD BE BAD FOR GOLD AND OIL...AND DISASTEROUS FOR STOCKS!!

If Bernanke now has "permission" to TRASH the stock markets....and drive commodities down with higher rates that increase the "value" of the dollar...that's fine.

But the value of the dollar is also determined by the need to sell ever more bonds to finance the twin deficits... A achieve this second goal...rates will have to go much higher...because the cause of the troubles, THE DEFICITS, is not being addressed...but rather, MERELY FINANCED...WITH A HIGHER "BRIBE" TO HOLD THE EVER MORE "COMMON" DOLLAR.

Will this all work out...? Well, maybe... And maybe not... Time will tell.

Stay tuned...this is going to be very interesting...

CRAPY NEWS ENVIRONMENT THIS SUMMER...?

If the market runs on daily news and "data points" this summer could be pretty bad...

The high gas prices are starting to "sink in" to the economy and the consumer mindset...

Don't drive if your don't have to... Multi-task your driving...

And if you live in rural, suburban or exurban areas...your troubles are even worse... Distances to "get anywhere" are often large, even prohibitive...

Many in small and medium sized towns might be feeling "trapped on the dark side of the moon" as one person said to me the other day....

Those in urban areas might have access to mass transit...

And some of us (me) are driving our 4 cylinder cars and letting the 6/8 cylinder cars just sit... Indeed, yesterday I took my 6 cylinder for a drive...and it felt wierd.... I'm "used to" the smaller car all of a sudden...

So, this could be the Summer of Our Discontent....or we could just muddle through...as usual.

But the deck is loaded for more "bad news" than good.... Stay tuned.

EL CENTRO IS HOT...

El Centro is still a hot real estate market according to CNN Money...

I was driving through El Centro last month...and it's amazing all of the new construction...in what was a sleepy, semi border town...in the middle of nowhere...

El Centro used to be a good place to stop for gas after leaving San Diego...

Now there's a new mall... Lots of new housing....

And even a Starbucks! So El Centro is hot...and not just in the summer.

ANOTHER BERNANKE SPEECH TODAY...?

Bet he starts to talk like Greenspan...?

THE OIL DIP: FEWER CARS ON THE ROADS AFTER HOURS...?

Is it just me or are there really few cars on the road at night and on weekends...?

That might actually be proveable with police reports and by municipal road crews with counting devises...

If so, it would prove that people really are staying home more, and driving for "pleasure" less.

In any event:

OIL AND GOLD WILL CONTINUE DOWN TODAY...AS THE ENTIRE ECONOMY DEFLATES FROM THE CURRENT MASSIVE RUN UP DURING "SUCKER SEASON."

AND THE SUCKER SEASON THIS YEAR WAS A DOOZY...

REMEMBER THOSE DAYS WHEN EVERYTHING WENT UP...STOCKS, BONDS, GOLD AND OIL...SOMETIMES BY HUGE AMOUNTS...

Well....It's summer...or soon will be...and it's time for the market masters to count their winnings and take off on a holiday...

Gold and oil will be down again today...and stocks of course will be up...

More Joy...for the good guys in the white hats. That 200 point drop leaves the market masters a lot of breathing room...

GREENBERG ADOPTS HYPERINFLATION THEORY..

In the LINK Greenberg of CBSMarketwatch affirms the hyperinflation theories that have been on this blog for literally months...! It's nice to see the MSM come around...sooner or later.

IRAN SMART MOUTHING DUBYA AND THE WEST...

Dubya and the Neocons put Iran in the catbird seat when they deposed Saddam...

And with the mess in Iraq only deepening...no wonder Iran is feeling "liberated" these days...

Iran is "having fun" with the US...knowing full well that the great Satan "super-power" is bogged down in Iraq with no exit strategy AND no end in sight.

Should we blame Iran for their smart mouthing...or blame Dubya and the Neocons who "enabled" it...?

BERNANKE "BEHIND THE CURVE...?"

The talk is that Bernanke is "behind the curve"...

And this from the very same people who were touting a "one and done" scenario...only a few weeks ago.

Perhaps, this FED policy of coddling Wall Street...with these absurd "baby steps" interest rate hikes is the real cause of our problems...

IF THE FED HAD GONE 50 BP AT ANY ONE OF THE FED MEETINGS...

WE WOULDN'T BE IN THIS MESS TODAY....

The notion that the FED exists to please the financial markets...and should never cause "trouble" for stock traders is the root of all the trouble.

Worse, this idea of the FED as handmaiden to the stock brokers is totally without historical precedent...

Quite the contrary was the case up until the 1990's BUBBLEMANIAS of Mr Greenspan.

Greenspan lowered rates to outrageously low levels after the Tech Crash...to try to revive the Bubble...but it didn't work...all he revived was monetary inflation...

True, it wasn't his old bugaboo "wage inflation."

But as Gertrude Stein might say: Inflation is Inflation is Inflation....

SO, BERNANKE IS NOT BEHIND THE CURVE...RATHER HE INHERITED THE GREENSPAN HYPERLIQUIDITY MESS...

AND HE IS ONLY NOW STARTING TO REALIZE THAT HIS JOB DESCRIPTION...WILL NOT BE ONE OF KOW-TOWING TO WALL STREET...AND FOREVER BLOWING BUBBLES IN PAPER ASSETS...LIKE MR G DID.

TODAY WAS A WAKE UP CALL FOR BERNANKE...

HE IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT VOLKER AT THE FED....AND NOT GREENSPAN LITE.

COLORADO LEADS NATION IN FORECLOSURES...

Boulder is dropping like a rock...

WELCOME NEWBIES AND G&D BACKSLIDERS...

So, it took a 214 point drop in the Dow for you to come back to the Gospel of Gloom here at the Gloom and Doom Report...!

Well, better late than never...

Here at Gloom and Doom we're always "red teaming" the market Yada Yada...

And worse yet, we actually believe everything we say here...!

(And you don't even have to buy anything! Unless you want to...See our books at Amazon in the sidebar.)

This board is almost always "right"--eventually...sort of like a stopped clock.

But, better yet...

We have real economic reasons for our opinions...and those reasons are all found in standard textbooks on Macro-economics...

No, that ain't as good as Kudlow and Cramer... But Hey, we can't help it...

This isn't "Econo-tainment." It's reality... And like I always say: "Reality is a 'good thing'..."

So bookmark this page now!

(Because your short term memory ain't what it used to be. Hey, it happens!).

AND COME BACK DAILY...FOR WHAT COULD BE A REALLY REALLY INTERESTING SUMMER...

....AND THAT IS GUARANTEED!

214 POINT DOW DOWN PAYMENT ON REALITY

I knew the plug would be pulled eventually...on this first quarter Sucker Rally...

But, I didn't know when...

Clearly, the Dow was safe until April 15... So, sometime after May 1 seemed reasonable... Then came May and not much happen...

So, May 17 is perfect!

It splits the difference...as expected... Everyone is in...and a lot of the suckers are out of gold now...

WE'RE READY FOR THE SUMMER!

DOW PLUNGE! SOME FLEE TO GOLD!

If the Dow is down big...then the FED won't raise rates...so inflation will continue...therefore, buy Gold!

Get it...? It makes about as much sense as the other drivel out there in the MSM...

Of course the Dow is down because of inflation...so the FED will raise rates...and the dollar will rise and gold will fall....

CHOOSE YOUR MYTH...

EUROLAND STOCK PLUNGE...

Can the US be far behind...

Well, Yes,. it happens all the time... The myth of American Exceptionalism is alive and well on Wall Street...

KENNY BOY IS GOIN' DOWN...

This jury should not take too long...unless they're holding out for another free meal...

CHEERS TO THE DELPHI STRIKERS...

Someone has to stand up to the corporate oligarchs....

ANN ARBOR FAIRY DOORS...

Ann Arbor is a great town for bars, eateries, coffee shops and book stores... And in season college football, basketball and hockey.

Now it's the center of the new "Fairy Door " Fad...

BERNANKE MUST RAISE RATES EVERY MEETING THIS YEAR...

The recent inflation data indicates that the hope of the FED "pausing" it's rate hikes...so Wall Street can rally wildly next month...is over.

The truth is that the US Dollar is so sturcturally weak that the FED will be lucky stop raising rates at the end of this year! Clearly for the Dollar to remain viable as a global currency...FED funds will have to go to 7% or 8%...just to "soak up" the hyperliquidity of the Greenspan Years.

Still the financial media persists in creating hype and hot air about the true nature and causes of the current dilemma...

PBS EXPOSES 401k AS A RETIREMENT FRAUD!

The looting of American pension plans and the dashing of all hope of retirement for most Boomers was well exposed on PBS last night... The program should be required viewing for all Bubba Republicans!

The corporations have looted the American Economy to the bone...there is literally nothing left to steal in many cases.

THE BEST REPUBLICAN ARGUMENT GOING INTO THE ELECTIONS IS: JESUS WANT'S YOU TO BE POOR!

And you know what? Some people are stupid enough to buy it!