Three dollar gas for the 4th of July weekend? .... U-Betcha!
AND THE INVESTMENT OF THE SECOND HALF...WILL BE GOLD!!
NOTE WELL: The smart money was buying the bullion today...can gold stocks be far behind?
Friday, June 30, 2006
WHAT'S GOOD FOR GM...?
GM WHO...?
WHAT'S GM NOWADAYS...?
Several Internet startups are worth more than GM...these days. Maybe more layoffs at GM. Maybe a bankruptcy to wipe out the pension plan? But making cars inside the US... No, we crossed that point of no return years ago.
WHAT'S GM NOWADAYS...?
Several Internet startups are worth more than GM...these days. Maybe more layoffs at GM. Maybe a bankruptcy to wipe out the pension plan? But making cars inside the US... No, we crossed that point of no return years ago.
GOLD AND OIL MOONSHOT COMING!!
While we're waiting for Armageddon that is...
It appears that the Currency Gods are now angry. The Street shills are trying to sell down the gold stocks even as the metal soars. A temporary holding pattern to be sure.
Today's market action is a little too "fake" to even merit serious comment... Next week will start the second half of the year... The window dressing will be over. Then we'll see what people really think.
Also we have a whole weekend for the Gaza disaster to sink in. Gold was the star of the day up nearly $30. But the FED shills really worked on gold stocks which bearly moved!
Gold will be THE INVESTMENT of the second half... More later...
It appears that the Currency Gods are now angry. The Street shills are trying to sell down the gold stocks even as the metal soars. A temporary holding pattern to be sure.
Today's market action is a little too "fake" to even merit serious comment... Next week will start the second half of the year... The window dressing will be over. Then we'll see what people really think.
Also we have a whole weekend for the Gaza disaster to sink in. Gold was the star of the day up nearly $30. But the FED shills really worked on gold stocks which bearly moved!
Gold will be THE INVESTMENT of the second half... More later...
GAZA IS ARMAGEDDON....
Despite attempts push the story below the fold...
There is a good chance that the Gaza Invasion is the beginning of the final Battle of Armageddon!
As stated here previously...Israel knows that the Bush administration is a lame duck. And the only opportunity for a "final solution," namely the annexation of Gaza and the West Bank...WITH AMERICAN BACKING...is slipping away fast.
Hence, this push for the FINAL ANNEXATION OF ALL OCCUPIED TERRITORIES...AND THE COMPLETE EXPLUSION OF ALL ARABS FROM BIBLICAL ISRAEL.
I would also be expecting some action on The Temple Mount soon...because this is the Alpha and Omega of the entire conflict.
I could be over-reacting here. But it seems the Rubicon has been crossed...and the die has been cast. Nothing can stop what comes next... Because Israel will do whatever it wants to do and nobody can stop it.
There is a good chance that the Gaza Invasion is the beginning of the final Battle of Armageddon!
As stated here previously...Israel knows that the Bush administration is a lame duck. And the only opportunity for a "final solution," namely the annexation of Gaza and the West Bank...WITH AMERICAN BACKING...is slipping away fast.
Hence, this push for the FINAL ANNEXATION OF ALL OCCUPIED TERRITORIES...AND THE COMPLETE EXPLUSION OF ALL ARABS FROM BIBLICAL ISRAEL.
I would also be expecting some action on The Temple Mount soon...because this is the Alpha and Omega of the entire conflict.
I could be over-reacting here. But it seems the Rubicon has been crossed...and the die has been cast. Nothing can stop what comes next... Because Israel will do whatever it wants to do and nobody can stop it.
DOLLAR PLUNGES AFTER FED RATE HIKE!
Somehow Bernanke has managed to get the worse of both worlds!!
A rate hike AND a decline in the currency!
My advice would be to have a little "fireside chat" with the American public...and the market shills...about what's really happening. Call it macroeconomics for dummies.
In other words...cut the Bull Shit! And bring Wall Street back to reality now...not later.
A rate hike AND a decline in the currency!
My advice would be to have a little "fireside chat" with the American public...and the market shills...about what's really happening. Call it macroeconomics for dummies.
In other words...cut the Bull Shit! And bring Wall Street back to reality now...not later.
YESTERDAY'S INSANE RALLY WILL BE RATIONALIZED.
Link contains the Quote of the Day:
"When the market rallies because the Fed says the economy is weakening you are in trouble."
I would disagree with some of the comments in the link however. For example the notion that the Bernanke FED is "less predictable" that the Greenspan FED.
Greenspan was in a sweet spot as Bubble-maker-in Chief. Bernanke is cleaning up the bubble mess that Greenspan left behind. If Greenspan had been a bit LESS PREDICTABLE we might not be in the current mess! And it was the Greenspan FED that kow-towed to every whim of Wall Street. Being cowed by the likes of Cudlow and Kramer on Tout TV.
With oil soaring NO MATTER WHAT. And the twin deficits eating away at the American macroeconomic fabric like an acid...what else can Bernanke do but battle to save the dollar that Greenspan and Wall Street trashed over many many years of Bubbles.
The Greenspan Daze are over! Only Wall Street doesn't quite believe it yet.
"When the market rallies because the Fed says the economy is weakening you are in trouble."
I would disagree with some of the comments in the link however. For example the notion that the Bernanke FED is "less predictable" that the Greenspan FED.
Greenspan was in a sweet spot as Bubble-maker-in Chief. Bernanke is cleaning up the bubble mess that Greenspan left behind. If Greenspan had been a bit LESS PREDICTABLE we might not be in the current mess! And it was the Greenspan FED that kow-towed to every whim of Wall Street. Being cowed by the likes of Cudlow and Kramer on Tout TV.
With oil soaring NO MATTER WHAT. And the twin deficits eating away at the American macroeconomic fabric like an acid...what else can Bernanke do but battle to save the dollar that Greenspan and Wall Street trashed over many many years of Bubbles.
The Greenspan Daze are over! Only Wall Street doesn't quite believe it yet.
ISRAELI GENOCIDE IN GAZA ENFLAMES THE WORLD!
Give us more rallies on Wall Street... But sooner or later the world is going to have to confront the genocide in Gaza...and it's aftermath. The backlash in the Muslim world is already heating up.
The American media blackout on news will continue...per usual. But the nightmare of what comes next will not go away.
The world is a completely different place today...! And not because of the FED statement yesterday. WE ARE APPROACHING THE "FINAL SOLUTION" IN THE MIDDLE EAST...
The American media blackout on news will continue...per usual. But the nightmare of what comes next will not go away.
The world is a completely different place today...! And not because of the FED statement yesterday. WE ARE APPROACHING THE "FINAL SOLUTION" IN THE MIDDLE EAST...
BERNANKE'S PROMISED "PAUSE" WILL TRASH DOLLAR, BOND AND OIL WILL SOAR!
How do I know this...
BECAUSE IT ALREADY HAPPEN TODAY AFTER THE FED MEETING...
GAS WILL SHOOT TO $3 PER GALLON IN ALL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IF THE "PAUSE CROWD" PREVAILS...
Bonds are already crashing... And the Jobs numbers are punk...
The problem is that the Wall Street spin machine is so good...and so quick...that Bernanke can't defend himself against the spin doctors, who now twist everything he says in support of their stock bubble!
That said its also possible that a lot of the "rally" today was to mask the humanitarian disaster that is shaping up in Gaza... Wall Street is a master of media distraction... If the rallies continue, even as the war crimes get worse, someone will surely connect the dots...eventually.
There is little or no talk of the middle east in the financial press now. And that is unusual because so much is riding on the oil prices. When Wall Street wants to "block" a news story...it comes up with it's own story...in this case the 200 point rally about nothing. Still the Gaza catastrophe continues...and at some point it will have to become "discussible" in the financial press.
BECAUSE IT ALREADY HAPPEN TODAY AFTER THE FED MEETING...
GAS WILL SHOOT TO $3 PER GALLON IN ALL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY IF THE "PAUSE CROWD" PREVAILS...
Bonds are already crashing... And the Jobs numbers are punk...
The problem is that the Wall Street spin machine is so good...and so quick...that Bernanke can't defend himself against the spin doctors, who now twist everything he says in support of their stock bubble!
That said its also possible that a lot of the "rally" today was to mask the humanitarian disaster that is shaping up in Gaza... Wall Street is a master of media distraction... If the rallies continue, even as the war crimes get worse, someone will surely connect the dots...eventually.
There is little or no talk of the middle east in the financial press now. And that is unusual because so much is riding on the oil prices. When Wall Street wants to "block" a news story...it comes up with it's own story...in this case the 200 point rally about nothing. Still the Gaza catastrophe continues...and at some point it will have to become "discussible" in the financial press.
Thursday, June 29, 2006
AUGUST RATE HIKE BY FED INEVITABLE...
A pause now....? Oh Pleeease....! If you believe that you'd believe that Israel wants a "two state solution!"
With oil soaring....$72 +. And with gold back near $600. And with the Dollar plunging today on the FED news...which was another rate hike!! And with GPD soaring and corporate profits at record highs. And with the debt and deficits and the K-Street Kongress...and the regime change that's coming in November...
ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER RATE HIKE IN AUGUST...
AND A RATE HIKE AT EVERY MEETING TIL THE END OF THIS YEAR...
A FED Funds at 6.5 or 7.0 is almost inevitable given the current macro-economics of the US economy...
Todays rally was totally insane...chances are it was decided upon before the FED statement came out...and everyone just hit the "send" bottom at 2:30...no matter what.
Well, there is such a thing as TOMORROW MORNING...And I'd hate to be holding on to this nutty rally at 9:30 EDT tomorrow.
With oil soaring....$72 +. And with gold back near $600. And with the Dollar plunging today on the FED news...which was another rate hike!! And with GPD soaring and corporate profits at record highs. And with the debt and deficits and the K-Street Kongress...and the regime change that's coming in November...
ALL SIGNS POINT TO ANOTHER RATE HIKE IN AUGUST...
AND A RATE HIKE AT EVERY MEETING TIL THE END OF THIS YEAR...
A FED Funds at 6.5 or 7.0 is almost inevitable given the current macro-economics of the US economy...
Todays rally was totally insane...chances are it was decided upon before the FED statement came out...and everyone just hit the "send" bottom at 2:30...no matter what.
Well, there is such a thing as TOMORROW MORNING...And I'd hate to be holding on to this nutty rally at 9:30 EDT tomorrow.
MASSIVE GAZA WAR CRIMES BY ISRAEL!
Exactly how Israel gets away with the huge humanitarian disaster it has caused in Gaza is beyond me...
So far everyone from the EU to the US have been "urging restraint" and protection of innocent lives...BUT THE WATER SEWAGE AND ELECTRIC WERE KNOCK OUT FOR NO REASON!
Sometimes Israel makes Dummy and Rummy look like Philosopher-Kings!
But, like Dubya and Rummy, the Israeli war crimes in Gaza ALSO show a startling lack of: WHAT COMES NEXT THINKING...
I MEAN...NOW WHAT...? DO ALL THE GAZA PALESTINIANS MOVE TO EGYPT AND JORDAN...AND ABANDON GAZA...? OR DO THEY RELOCATE IN THE WEST BANK?
AND WHO PAYS FOR THIS??
WHAT'S NEXT!!
THE US ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT CRICTIZE ISRAEL UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, NO MATTER WHAT...
SO IT BEHOOVES THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO BRING ISRAEL TO JUSTICE FOR IT'S WAR CRIMES IN GAZA...
I mean what were they thinking!! Or were they thinking at all...
SHOCK AND AWE IN IRAQ WAS A DISASTER...BUT THE US IS TRYING TO STAY AND PICK UP THE PIECES...
IN GAZA, ISRAEL SHOULD BE HELD TO THE POTTERY BARN RULES....THEY BROKE IT. THEY FIX IT....
OR IS THAT THE JOB OF THE US TAXPAYER YET AGAIN...? CLEANING UP AFTER ISRAEL'S MESSES IS BREAKING THE BANK IN THE US...
TWO HUNDRED POINT RALLY ON WALL STREET OR NOT... TOMORROW WILL COME...AND WATER AND SEWAGE WILL STILL BE OFF, AND IT MUST BE RESTORED TO THE MILLIONS OF INNOCENT CIVILIANS IN GAZA SOON... BUT BY WHOM...?
ONLY THE US AND ISRAEL HARBOR THE SICK NOTION THAT THE ONLY GOOD MUSLIM IS A DEAD MUSLIM....
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SIMPLY MUST STEP IN AND STOP THE INSANITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST--- AND, ASAP!
So far everyone from the EU to the US have been "urging restraint" and protection of innocent lives...BUT THE WATER SEWAGE AND ELECTRIC WERE KNOCK OUT FOR NO REASON!
Sometimes Israel makes Dummy and Rummy look like Philosopher-Kings!
But, like Dubya and Rummy, the Israeli war crimes in Gaza ALSO show a startling lack of: WHAT COMES NEXT THINKING...
I MEAN...NOW WHAT...? DO ALL THE GAZA PALESTINIANS MOVE TO EGYPT AND JORDAN...AND ABANDON GAZA...? OR DO THEY RELOCATE IN THE WEST BANK?
AND WHO PAYS FOR THIS??
WHAT'S NEXT!!
THE US ABSOLUTELY WILL NOT CRICTIZE ISRAEL UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES, NO MATTER WHAT...
SO IT BEHOOVES THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO BRING ISRAEL TO JUSTICE FOR IT'S WAR CRIMES IN GAZA...
I mean what were they thinking!! Or were they thinking at all...
SHOCK AND AWE IN IRAQ WAS A DISASTER...BUT THE US IS TRYING TO STAY AND PICK UP THE PIECES...
IN GAZA, ISRAEL SHOULD BE HELD TO THE POTTERY BARN RULES....THEY BROKE IT. THEY FIX IT....
OR IS THAT THE JOB OF THE US TAXPAYER YET AGAIN...? CLEANING UP AFTER ISRAEL'S MESSES IS BREAKING THE BANK IN THE US...
TWO HUNDRED POINT RALLY ON WALL STREET OR NOT... TOMORROW WILL COME...AND WATER AND SEWAGE WILL STILL BE OFF, AND IT MUST BE RESTORED TO THE MILLIONS OF INNOCENT CIVILIANS IN GAZA SOON... BUT BY WHOM...?
ONLY THE US AND ISRAEL HARBOR THE SICK NOTION THAT THE ONLY GOOD MUSLIM IS A DEAD MUSLIM....
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SIMPLY MUST STEP IN AND STOP THE INSANITY IN THE MIDDLE EAST--- AND, ASAP!
WHAT THE LEFT LACKS...A NEW BOB DYLAN!
AND GOOD PROTEST SONGS!
Every popular or populist movement has to have it's protest songs...
From the IWW to the Union Movement of the 1930's to the Vietnam protests...good songs were the key. Indeed, the Wobblies that their own song book...!
Although some thought that IWW meant: "I Won't Work!"
Recently PBS has run and rerun the Bob Dylan documentary about the 1960's protest movement.
And it's clear that the public is best reached through music...
Where's Our New Dylan...? If the Democrats can't think of any slogans...perhaps some songs would help...
Every popular or populist movement has to have it's protest songs...
From the IWW to the Union Movement of the 1930's to the Vietnam protests...good songs were the key. Indeed, the Wobblies that their own song book...!
Although some thought that IWW meant: "I Won't Work!"
Recently PBS has run and rerun the Bob Dylan documentary about the 1960's protest movement.
And it's clear that the public is best reached through music...
Where's Our New Dylan...? If the Democrats can't think of any slogans...perhaps some songs would help...
GOLD AND OIL SOAR ON INFLATIONARY FED STATEMENT!!
INFLATION IS BAAAACK....!
Apparently...?
The FED statement was spun into a rally so fast today that few had time to actually read it.
But the Market Touts had their buy programs loaded...and reality or nothing else could stop this rally!
Gold is back at $600...
Oil is heading for $75!!
The Dow is up 200++!!
THE GDP IS A MOONSHOT!!
And The Dollar plunged!
BERNANKE WILL BE FORCED BY THE MARKET TO RAISE RATES FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR...
Does anyone really think that ANY OF THE NUMBERS TODAY...OR THE FED STATEMENT ITSELF INDICATED THE BELOVED "PAUSE??"
WHERE? I JUST DON'T SEE IT....
THIS RALLY WAS IN THE CAN LONG LONG BEFORE THE FED MEETING WAS OVER...
AND IT WILL REVERSE ITSELF JUST AS FAST...
Apparently...?
The FED statement was spun into a rally so fast today that few had time to actually read it.
But the Market Touts had their buy programs loaded...and reality or nothing else could stop this rally!
Gold is back at $600...
Oil is heading for $75!!
The Dow is up 200++!!
THE GDP IS A MOONSHOT!!
And The Dollar plunged!
BERNANKE WILL BE FORCED BY THE MARKET TO RAISE RATES FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR...
Does anyone really think that ANY OF THE NUMBERS TODAY...OR THE FED STATEMENT ITSELF INDICATED THE BELOVED "PAUSE??"
WHERE? I JUST DON'T SEE IT....
THIS RALLY WAS IN THE CAN LONG LONG BEFORE THE FED MEETING WAS OVER...
AND IT WILL REVERSE ITSELF JUST AS FAST...
FED PLEASES EVERYBODY!!
EVEN THE HALF CRAZY STOCK BROKERS AND SPECULATORS!! MAYBE THEY'LL TELL US WHY BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY...? YA THINK?
SO IS EVERYBODY HAPPY....? Probably...at least until tomorrow morning.
SO IS EVERYBODY HAPPY....? Probably...at least until tomorrow morning.
FED SEES MORE INFLATION RISK! MARKETS SOAR!!
CLICK HERE...for the FED Statement... The Street can barely restrain it's joy! STOCKS SOAR!!
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/4 percent.
Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.
Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months. Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise in unit labor costs, and inflation expectations remain contained. However, the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures.
Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-1/4 percent.
Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from its quite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual cooling of the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interest rates and energy prices.
Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months. Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise in unit labor costs, and inflation expectations remain contained. However, the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures.
Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to support the attainment of its objectives.
GOLD SOARS ON INFLATIONARY ECONOMY...
All of the economic data indicates more rate hikes to come, as economic activity picks up and corporate profits soar...even as jobs plunge...
Bernanke now has the permission he needs to raise rates at every meeting for the rest of this year.
Or, until FED Funds hits 6.5% to 7% percent...depending on oil and gold prices... And note well oil has beeen essentially unphased by the trouble in the gold markets...which were whip-sawed by the speculators and hedge funds last month.
So why is Wall Street smiling...? Well Wall Street's mood can change on a dime...essentially the market trades on the VERY LAST DATA POINT TO COME ACROSS THE SCREEN...
VERY VERY SHORT TERM THINKING...IF YOUR WHOLE WORLD VIEW CAN BE DEVASTATED AFTER 2 PM...!!
Oil going to $75? Tell me the B-Man can "pause" then!
Bernanke now has the permission he needs to raise rates at every meeting for the rest of this year.
Or, until FED Funds hits 6.5% to 7% percent...depending on oil and gold prices... And note well oil has beeen essentially unphased by the trouble in the gold markets...which were whip-sawed by the speculators and hedge funds last month.
So why is Wall Street smiling...? Well Wall Street's mood can change on a dime...essentially the market trades on the VERY LAST DATA POINT TO COME ACROSS THE SCREEN...
VERY VERY SHORT TERM THINKING...IF YOUR WHOLE WORLD VIEW CAN BE DEVASTATED AFTER 2 PM...!!
Oil going to $75? Tell me the B-Man can "pause" then!
FED STATEMENT COULD CRASH THE MARKET TODAY
Berenanke has to say what Wall Street doesn't want to hear... The days CONSTANT of happy talk from the FED are ending...
GDP UP! PROFITS UP! JOBS DOWN!
If Bernanke needed "permission" for another rate hike AFTER THIS ONE...
HE NOW HAS IT...!
HE NOW HAS IT...!
MEXICO WILL JOIN THE LURCH TO THE LEFT...
If things go as they have been...Mexico will join the Lurch to the Left that is sweeping global politics; as people FINALLY give up on the greedy elites...and realize that they must assert their political interests to make any progress.
In that sense, the world's Reagan/Thatcher Era may FINALLY be ending...FOR GOOD!
The Reagan/Thatcher appeal was anti-union, anti-worker and anti-welfare state.
But now, the ordinary citizen/worker in the US...and indeed around the world...is desperate for change...and for some fairness in the way wealth is distributed.
The elites have overstayed their usefulness...the Lurch to the Left will continue... And it will start in earnest this November...as Democrats regain a voice in Washington.
This is important to Wall Street...because there will be a whole new Mojo in the media and on the minds of the public once the current elite in Washington is sent packing...
Will Bubba still be worried about Homosexuals...or his pension and job?
THESE ARE THE LAST DAYS OF REAGANISM...
AND DUBYA, THE MORON PRESIDENT, IS THE FITTING FINAL CHAPTER FOR AN ERA THAT HAS LASTED TOO LONG...AND DONE SO MUCH DAMAGE TO THE PROGRESSIVE AGENDA...
THE VERY PROGRESSIVE AGENDATHAT WAS THE CENTER OF AMERICAN POLITICS FROM 1932 TO 1982.
NOW BEGINS THE "NEW PROGRESSIVISM"...BUT IT'S STILL AT ITS VERY BEGINNINGS.
"Things" are not quite "bad enough" to have everyone convinced. But they are getting there every day...
We aren't even talking about the real problems in Washington like the "twin deficits," or how to pay for the needed entitlements Americans have been promised for their survival.
Instead, the K-Street Kongress wasted last week debating the "Flag Burning Amendment!!" IS THAT WHAT PEORIA IS THINKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW?
And the nut cases in the Religious Right are still living in their bizarre fantasy worlds---where killing Muslims will "Bring Jesus back to convert the Jews!"
Wall Street exploits these sad and misguided people to the fullest every election cycle.
But things are changing...
Even as we are lulled into complacency by the dog days of summer.
In that sense, the world's Reagan/Thatcher Era may FINALLY be ending...FOR GOOD!
The Reagan/Thatcher appeal was anti-union, anti-worker and anti-welfare state.
But now, the ordinary citizen/worker in the US...and indeed around the world...is desperate for change...and for some fairness in the way wealth is distributed.
The elites have overstayed their usefulness...the Lurch to the Left will continue... And it will start in earnest this November...as Democrats regain a voice in Washington.
This is important to Wall Street...because there will be a whole new Mojo in the media and on the minds of the public once the current elite in Washington is sent packing...
Will Bubba still be worried about Homosexuals...or his pension and job?
THESE ARE THE LAST DAYS OF REAGANISM...
AND DUBYA, THE MORON PRESIDENT, IS THE FITTING FINAL CHAPTER FOR AN ERA THAT HAS LASTED TOO LONG...AND DONE SO MUCH DAMAGE TO THE PROGRESSIVE AGENDA...
THE VERY PROGRESSIVE AGENDATHAT WAS THE CENTER OF AMERICAN POLITICS FROM 1932 TO 1982.
NOW BEGINS THE "NEW PROGRESSIVISM"...BUT IT'S STILL AT ITS VERY BEGINNINGS.
"Things" are not quite "bad enough" to have everyone convinced. But they are getting there every day...
We aren't even talking about the real problems in Washington like the "twin deficits," or how to pay for the needed entitlements Americans have been promised for their survival.
Instead, the K-Street Kongress wasted last week debating the "Flag Burning Amendment!!" IS THAT WHAT PEORIA IS THINKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW?
And the nut cases in the Religious Right are still living in their bizarre fantasy worlds---where killing Muslims will "Bring Jesus back to convert the Jews!"
Wall Street exploits these sad and misguided people to the fullest every election cycle.
But things are changing...
Even as we are lulled into complacency by the dog days of summer.
WALL STREET KEEPS IT'S HAPPY FACE...
Between Gaza and the FED meeting...you'd expect some anxiety on Wall Street...?
WRONG!
The bond market is a bit worried...but bond holders are all grown-ups...
The Street is seriously into "happy face" now...but I'd call it more whistling past the graveyard.
The market masters appear to have the float under control...and as long as the geopolitccal news can be "managed" by the American media...more aimless drift seems inevitable. And the problem? Well, "aimless drift" is as good as it gets...at least until after Labor Day...then the elections will be the story du jour...
WRONG!
The bond market is a bit worried...but bond holders are all grown-ups...
The Street is seriously into "happy face" now...but I'd call it more whistling past the graveyard.
The market masters appear to have the float under control...and as long as the geopolitccal news can be "managed" by the American media...more aimless drift seems inevitable. And the problem? Well, "aimless drift" is as good as it gets...at least until after Labor Day...then the elections will be the story du jour...
ISRAEL SEEKS FINAL SOLUTION IN MIDDLE EAST...
WAR INEVITABLE...IN SYRIA, IN IRAN, IN JORDAN. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS CLOSING FOR ISRAEL...AS BUSH BECOMES A LAME DUCK...AND ANTI-WAR SENTIMENT PERVADES US ELECTORATE...
Wednesday, June 28, 2006
GAZA HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE!!
Israel is basically out of the control in Gaza and the occupied territories...
They know what they want: ...namely the expulsion all Arabs from the West Bank and Gaza; and re-establishment of "Biblical Israel" as demanded by the Likudnics and others in the Zionist right wing.
In this they are back by American Evangelicals...who think that the re-establishment of Biblical Israel...will bring about the Second Coming of Christ...AND the Conversion of the Jews to Christianity...!
Of course, the Zionists accept the support of the American Religious Right...up to a point...the "converting to Christianity" part is, well, problematic I assume.
But the whole affair is the pipedream of religious nut cases, BOTH in Israel and the US, who are pushing the world to the brink of disaster.
The problem is that Israel can't just say what it's intentions are:
THE TOTAL ANNEXATION OF ALL OCCUPIED LAND...BOTH ON THE WEST BANK AND IN GAZA
BECAUSE, FRANKLY, THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR THIS POSITION IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY...
AND, THE RESULTING FORCED GENOCIDAL EXODUS OF THE PALESTINIANS...WOULD BE A DISASTER FOR THE ZIONISTS GLOBALLY.
PERHAPS EVEN THE US WOULD WITHDRAW SUPPORT...?
So, we have the current dilemma; this constant Cat and Mouse Game...wherein Israel provokes...is then attacked...and attacks back...thus provoking more attacks.
The problem is that no one...not even Bush and the Neocons can speak for Israel...or control the internal Zionist agenda in the territories.
Europe can criticize...but that's all.
And the American media has to watch what they say...
So, the beat goes on...and on...and on...
NOW, WE HAVE A HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE IN GAZA...THAT WILL COST THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MILLIONS TO REPAIR.
AND WHOSE GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? ....SURELY NOT ISRAEL...
RATHER, THE US TAXPAYERS...
THE WHOLE PROBLEM COMES FROM HAVING HIDDEN AGENDAS THAT ARE "NON-DISCUSSIBLE" IN THE PUBLIC FORUM...BECAUSE THE HIDDEN DEMANDS ARE SO HORRENDOUS, THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WOULD CONDEMN THEM STRAIGHT AWAY...
The Palestinians have been provoked beyond all reason...an entire generation has been lost to hate and violence... They have lost their homeland...
But, everyone is afraid to tell them the truth...so we continue adrift.
And Israel doesn't have the courage to do what it needs to do...which is exile all Arabs out of "Biblical Israel."
So we have the prison camp towns and concentration camps of Gaza and the West Bank...that are now hot beds of dissent and insurgency...
Sooner or later--someone is going to have to break this deadlock...
Unfortnately, the current administartion in Washington is so hated in the middle east, and manifestly incompetent that we can only drift from crisis to crisis for now...
Postscript: But then there is the "end of the world" scenario of the Book the Bible Code, which predicts the "end of days" in 2006... Right on time apparently!
They know what they want: ...namely the expulsion all Arabs from the West Bank and Gaza; and re-establishment of "Biblical Israel" as demanded by the Likudnics and others in the Zionist right wing.
In this they are back by American Evangelicals...who think that the re-establishment of Biblical Israel...will bring about the Second Coming of Christ...AND the Conversion of the Jews to Christianity...!
Of course, the Zionists accept the support of the American Religious Right...up to a point...the "converting to Christianity" part is, well, problematic I assume.
But the whole affair is the pipedream of religious nut cases, BOTH in Israel and the US, who are pushing the world to the brink of disaster.
The problem is that Israel can't just say what it's intentions are:
THE TOTAL ANNEXATION OF ALL OCCUPIED LAND...BOTH ON THE WEST BANK AND IN GAZA
BECAUSE, FRANKLY, THERE IS NO SUPPORT FOR THIS POSITION IN THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY...
AND, THE RESULTING FORCED GENOCIDAL EXODUS OF THE PALESTINIANS...WOULD BE A DISASTER FOR THE ZIONISTS GLOBALLY.
PERHAPS EVEN THE US WOULD WITHDRAW SUPPORT...?
So, we have the current dilemma; this constant Cat and Mouse Game...wherein Israel provokes...is then attacked...and attacks back...thus provoking more attacks.
The problem is that no one...not even Bush and the Neocons can speak for Israel...or control the internal Zionist agenda in the territories.
Europe can criticize...but that's all.
And the American media has to watch what they say...
So, the beat goes on...and on...and on...
NOW, WE HAVE A HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE IN GAZA...THAT WILL COST THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MILLIONS TO REPAIR.
AND WHOSE GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? ....SURELY NOT ISRAEL...
RATHER, THE US TAXPAYERS...
THE WHOLE PROBLEM COMES FROM HAVING HIDDEN AGENDAS THAT ARE "NON-DISCUSSIBLE" IN THE PUBLIC FORUM...BECAUSE THE HIDDEN DEMANDS ARE SO HORRENDOUS, THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WOULD CONDEMN THEM STRAIGHT AWAY...
The Palestinians have been provoked beyond all reason...an entire generation has been lost to hate and violence... They have lost their homeland...
But, everyone is afraid to tell them the truth...so we continue adrift.
And Israel doesn't have the courage to do what it needs to do...which is exile all Arabs out of "Biblical Israel."
So we have the prison camp towns and concentration camps of Gaza and the West Bank...that are now hot beds of dissent and insurgency...
Sooner or later--someone is going to have to break this deadlock...
Unfortnately, the current administartion in Washington is so hated in the middle east, and manifestly incompetent that we can only drift from crisis to crisis for now...
Postscript: But then there is the "end of the world" scenario of the Book the Bible Code, which predicts the "end of days" in 2006... Right on time apparently!
ISRAEL PROVOKING WAR BEFORE BUSH GOES LAME DUCK?
The GAZA WAR is pretty much being ignored in the American media...but for those with the ambition to by-pass the American media and get the facts...
Something very odd is happening... My hunch is that Israel wants to provoke a "final solution" type of conflict with the Palestinians...BEFORE Dubya & Co enter the twilight years of their term in office...
As a lame duck bogged down in Iraq...and with Iran and North Korea problematic...Israel only has a few months left to achieve a favorable resolution on the West Bank and Gaza...
A new president could be much more demanding on Israel to "find a way" to achieve a two state solution that doesn't involve constant flare-ups and targeted killings...which then lead to more problems.
Of course, gold should be doing a moonshot today... But give it time...it's coming.
Something very odd is happening... My hunch is that Israel wants to provoke a "final solution" type of conflict with the Palestinians...BEFORE Dubya & Co enter the twilight years of their term in office...
As a lame duck bogged down in Iraq...and with Iran and North Korea problematic...Israel only has a few months left to achieve a favorable resolution on the West Bank and Gaza...
A new president could be much more demanding on Israel to "find a way" to achieve a two state solution that doesn't involve constant flare-ups and targeted killings...which then lead to more problems.
Of course, gold should be doing a moonshot today... But give it time...it's coming.
BERNANKE GOES 50 BP or, BOBBING THE DOGS TAIL...?
News that Bernanke might go for 50 BP this week is not news here...
Bernanke and Greenspan are sort of like the good ole boy who wanted his dogs tail "bobbed"...
But he was afraid that cutting the tail off all at once would hurt the dog too much...
So he decided to cut it off one inch at a time!!
So too on interest rates...would it not be better to just GET IT OVER WITH...and go for the "appropriate" rate level NOW....
RATHER THAN THIS NUTTY 25 BP "BABY STEPS" APPROACH THAT HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR YEARS...!
I mean the market does have the mind of a two year old...but still the FED shouldn't be bound by the markets whining and crying...that's not what the FED's job description is...
JUST GO 50 AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS...!
LIKELY THE DOLLAR WILL SHOOT UP...OIL AND GOLD WILL PLUNGE...AND EVERYONE WILL SHOUT HOSANNAS...BECAUSE THE GROW-UPS ARE BACK IN CHARGE AT THE FED...
Also....if Bernanke is planning on another 25 BP next meeting...? Why not just do it now...and THEN PAUSE TO REFLECT ON THE DISMAL STATE OF THE WASHINGTON SITUATION...THEN simply explain to the American public the whats, whys and wherefores...
Who knows the American Public just might be smarter than they are given credit for!
Bernanke and Greenspan are sort of like the good ole boy who wanted his dogs tail "bobbed"...
But he was afraid that cutting the tail off all at once would hurt the dog too much...
So he decided to cut it off one inch at a time!!
So too on interest rates...would it not be better to just GET IT OVER WITH...and go for the "appropriate" rate level NOW....
RATHER THAN THIS NUTTY 25 BP "BABY STEPS" APPROACH THAT HAS BEEN GOING ON FOR YEARS...!
I mean the market does have the mind of a two year old...but still the FED shouldn't be bound by the markets whining and crying...that's not what the FED's job description is...
JUST GO 50 AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS...!
LIKELY THE DOLLAR WILL SHOOT UP...OIL AND GOLD WILL PLUNGE...AND EVERYONE WILL SHOUT HOSANNAS...BECAUSE THE GROW-UPS ARE BACK IN CHARGE AT THE FED...
Also....if Bernanke is planning on another 25 BP next meeting...? Why not just do it now...and THEN PAUSE TO REFLECT ON THE DISMAL STATE OF THE WASHINGTON SITUATION...THEN simply explain to the American public the whats, whys and wherefores...
Who knows the American Public just might be smarter than they are given credit for!
GAZA INVASION PLUS FED FEARS DOOM STOCKS
The full reporting on the Gaza Invasion has yet to come out...
But the markets are doing their best to ignore the news, and not to panic...indeed the markets are completely ignoring the NEW ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN WAR...so far.
Israel should simply re-occupy Gaza and stop this charade that ANY PART of the occupied lands will ever be given to the Palestinians... They won't and everyone knows it.
It's a cruel joke on the Palestinians and on the American Public, who don't have a clue about the hidden agendas that are going on in the middle east...because of media bias and censorship.
What's going on in Gaza is a slow-motion genocide...and I would be surprised if the Arabs let it go unpunished...
A good test of the control central banks have over affairs will be in oil and gold prices today...
Will it be "business as usual?"
Despite the NEW WAR in Gaza...are we going to continue pretending that THIS is not the real problem in the middle east? And NOT Iraq and Iraq for Dubya & Co...which are also out of control...just as much as Gaza is for the Israelis?
The Lebanonization of the middle east continues apace...and things will only get worse because the powers that be...are living in a total fantasy. Never a good thing. The US attitudes toward the middle east today are as out of touch with reality as Hitler's view of Europe was in the 1930's!
GIVE THE AMERICAN INVESTOR A 5% BANK CD...AND US STOCKS ARE HISTORY FOR AT LEAST A DECADE!
MUCH HIGHER RATES NOW SEEM TO BE ALMOST ASSURED.
Postscript: Efforts to "blackout" the Gaza War in the American Media can be expected...this could be a massacre on an unprecedented scale...and the US public simply can not be allowed to know about it. Of course there are, or will be, international sources eventually.
But the markets are doing their best to ignore the news, and not to panic...indeed the markets are completely ignoring the NEW ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN WAR...so far.
Israel should simply re-occupy Gaza and stop this charade that ANY PART of the occupied lands will ever be given to the Palestinians... They won't and everyone knows it.
It's a cruel joke on the Palestinians and on the American Public, who don't have a clue about the hidden agendas that are going on in the middle east...because of media bias and censorship.
What's going on in Gaza is a slow-motion genocide...and I would be surprised if the Arabs let it go unpunished...
A good test of the control central banks have over affairs will be in oil and gold prices today...
Will it be "business as usual?"
Despite the NEW WAR in Gaza...are we going to continue pretending that THIS is not the real problem in the middle east? And NOT Iraq and Iraq for Dubya & Co...which are also out of control...just as much as Gaza is for the Israelis?
The Lebanonization of the middle east continues apace...and things will only get worse because the powers that be...are living in a total fantasy. Never a good thing. The US attitudes toward the middle east today are as out of touch with reality as Hitler's view of Europe was in the 1930's!
GIVE THE AMERICAN INVESTOR A 5% BANK CD...AND US STOCKS ARE HISTORY FOR AT LEAST A DECADE!
MUCH HIGHER RATES NOW SEEM TO BE ALMOST ASSURED.
Postscript: Efforts to "blackout" the Gaza War in the American Media can be expected...this could be a massacre on an unprecedented scale...and the US public simply can not be allowed to know about it. Of course there are, or will be, international sources eventually.
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK IN THE US SENATE!
With all Hell breaking loose in the middle east, a war in Iraq, and with the new Bernanke economy...the US Senate has been wasting time "debating" the Flag Burning Amendment for the last few days...
This amendment IF PASSED would make the US look like a nation of total fools in the eyes of the world....
A world that is already increasingly reluctant to have or hold any part of the US...including the US Dollar that the FED is desperately trying to "save" from the stupidity in Washington...
A sad case really...
This amendment IF PASSED would make the US look like a nation of total fools in the eyes of the world....
A world that is already increasingly reluctant to have or hold any part of the US...including the US Dollar that the FED is desperately trying to "save" from the stupidity in Washington...
A sad case really...
ZIONISTS TRASH GAZA!
Israel seems to have no problem creating problems that the US and others will have to pay for and solve in the end...
As an ally, Israel is really the dominant partner of the US in the middle east...
Israel does basically whatever it wants to achieve it's "annexation goals"...and the US taxpayer picks up the bill...as happened with the "taking out" of Saddam...and now the coming problems in Iran.
If Israel intends a genocide or exile of the Palestinians...JUST DO IT!
This CAT AND MOUSE GAME ON THE WEST BANK AND GAZA is becoming too tedious for the global community to endure.
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT ISRAEL IS NOT GOING TO GIVE THE PALESTINIANS ANY PART OF THE WEST BANK...AND PROBABLY NO PART OF GAZE EITHER...SO WHY ARE WE PUTTING UP WITH THIS NONSENSE FROM ISRAEL!
IF THE ZIONISTS WANT THE WEST BANK AND GAZA...JUST TAKE IT ALREADY AND GET IT OVER WITH... AT LEAST THEN WE CAN PICK UP THE PIECES AND MOVE ON...
AT THE CURRENT RATE...THE AMERICANS WILL BE OCCUPYING EVERY COUNTRY IN THE MIDDLE EAST...AND ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS WILL STILL BE BICKERING!
I FOR ONE AM SICK OF THE FLIM-FLAM COMING OUT OF ISRAEL...THAT IS ALL SO DAMN HUSH-HUSH INSIDE THE US MEDIA...
JUST BOMB THE PALESTINIANS INTO JORDAN...AND LETS GET IT OVER WITH.
Because everyone already knows that is how this story ends.
As an ally, Israel is really the dominant partner of the US in the middle east...
Israel does basically whatever it wants to achieve it's "annexation goals"...and the US taxpayer picks up the bill...as happened with the "taking out" of Saddam...and now the coming problems in Iran.
If Israel intends a genocide or exile of the Palestinians...JUST DO IT!
This CAT AND MOUSE GAME ON THE WEST BANK AND GAZA is becoming too tedious for the global community to endure.
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT ISRAEL IS NOT GOING TO GIVE THE PALESTINIANS ANY PART OF THE WEST BANK...AND PROBABLY NO PART OF GAZE EITHER...SO WHY ARE WE PUTTING UP WITH THIS NONSENSE FROM ISRAEL!
IF THE ZIONISTS WANT THE WEST BANK AND GAZA...JUST TAKE IT ALREADY AND GET IT OVER WITH... AT LEAST THEN WE CAN PICK UP THE PIECES AND MOVE ON...
AT THE CURRENT RATE...THE AMERICANS WILL BE OCCUPYING EVERY COUNTRY IN THE MIDDLE EAST...AND ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIANS WILL STILL BE BICKERING!
I FOR ONE AM SICK OF THE FLIM-FLAM COMING OUT OF ISRAEL...THAT IS ALL SO DAMN HUSH-HUSH INSIDE THE US MEDIA...
JUST BOMB THE PALESTINIANS INTO JORDAN...AND LETS GET IT OVER WITH.
Because everyone already knows that is how this story ends.
THE MARKETS DREADED "WHAT IF" SCENARIO...
The market seems to have accepted that the FED is raising rates to defend the dollar from the massive debt and deficits of the Bush/Cheney White House...
But, there is an even more horrible outcome possible...one that is seldom considered in the media.
WHAT IF...
THE FED RAISES RATES...AND THE DOLLAR DROPS...BECAUSE OF A WEAKER US ECONOMY; AND THUS AN INABILITY TO PAY FOR THE TWIN DEFICITS...?
It's no secret that the American Economy is running on borrowed money and borrowed time.
The incompetence of the Republicans has only made that worse over the last six years.
BY RAISING RATES, BERNANKE COULD CAUSE A DANGEROUS STAGFLATION...
WHEREIN THE DOLLAR FALLS, AND OIL AND OTHER COMMODITIES THEREBY RISE...!
REMEMBER, THE LAST TIME THE FED HAD TO USE RATE HIKES TO "CURE" AN OUT OF CONTROL WAR...AND WILD DOMESTIC SPENDING WAS DURING THE 70's...
That dismal episode took a long, long time to resolve itself....much longer than our current 48 hour news cycles permit nowadays.
I see a situation where "stopping the economy" with rate hikes results in a dangerous decline in the dollar...BUT NOT STOPPING the economy also devalues the dollar.
THE PERFECT CATCH-22!
Remember back in the 70' s the US economy was much more central to the worlds PRODUCTION CYCLES....
Today, the US economy is merely the consumer of last resort for Asia and other low wage regions...
Put another way....the US economy then was more balanced, more internally strong, and less "hollow"...than the US economy is today.
Today debt, deficts, and speculative bubbles are at the very heart of the US economic system.
In the 70's, plant, equipment and manufacturing were still the core competency of the American economy...that's long gone now.
I would not be surprised if there is a different reaction and outcome to rate hikes in 2006...than what occurred in 1976...the last time the FED started raising rates to "save the dollar.'
IN SHORT, THE DOLLAR MAY BE "UNSAVABLE" THIS TIME.
...AT LEAST IN THE SENSE THAT WE WOULD NORMALLY VIEW IT.
IT MAY BE TIME FOR AMERICANS TO TAKE THEIR "NEW POSITION" IN THE WORLD...
WITH A DEVALUED CURRENCY AND ALL THAT COMES FROM IT.
THIS COULD BE HOW THE "CHINESE CENTURY" BEGINS...AND THE AMERICAN CENTURY ENDS...
Because stupidity and greed in high places really do have consequences.
But, there is an even more horrible outcome possible...one that is seldom considered in the media.
WHAT IF...
THE FED RAISES RATES...AND THE DOLLAR DROPS...BECAUSE OF A WEAKER US ECONOMY; AND THUS AN INABILITY TO PAY FOR THE TWIN DEFICITS...?
It's no secret that the American Economy is running on borrowed money and borrowed time.
The incompetence of the Republicans has only made that worse over the last six years.
BY RAISING RATES, BERNANKE COULD CAUSE A DANGEROUS STAGFLATION...
WHEREIN THE DOLLAR FALLS, AND OIL AND OTHER COMMODITIES THEREBY RISE...!
REMEMBER, THE LAST TIME THE FED HAD TO USE RATE HIKES TO "CURE" AN OUT OF CONTROL WAR...AND WILD DOMESTIC SPENDING WAS DURING THE 70's...
That dismal episode took a long, long time to resolve itself....much longer than our current 48 hour news cycles permit nowadays.
I see a situation where "stopping the economy" with rate hikes results in a dangerous decline in the dollar...BUT NOT STOPPING the economy also devalues the dollar.
THE PERFECT CATCH-22!
Remember back in the 70' s the US economy was much more central to the worlds PRODUCTION CYCLES....
Today, the US economy is merely the consumer of last resort for Asia and other low wage regions...
Put another way....the US economy then was more balanced, more internally strong, and less "hollow"...than the US economy is today.
Today debt, deficts, and speculative bubbles are at the very heart of the US economic system.
In the 70's, plant, equipment and manufacturing were still the core competency of the American economy...that's long gone now.
I would not be surprised if there is a different reaction and outcome to rate hikes in 2006...than what occurred in 1976...the last time the FED started raising rates to "save the dollar.'
IN SHORT, THE DOLLAR MAY BE "UNSAVABLE" THIS TIME.
...AT LEAST IN THE SENSE THAT WE WOULD NORMALLY VIEW IT.
IT MAY BE TIME FOR AMERICANS TO TAKE THEIR "NEW POSITION" IN THE WORLD...
WITH A DEVALUED CURRENCY AND ALL THAT COMES FROM IT.
THIS COULD BE HOW THE "CHINESE CENTURY" BEGINS...AND THE AMERICAN CENTURY ENDS...
Because stupidity and greed in high places really do have consequences.
COST OF IRAQ WAR...
Would spend Warren Buffet's wealth in a few months! What Bill and Warren should be doing is saving us from the greed of the unenlightened rich...and the need of the political classes for constant wars and distractions for the electorate.
ADVICE TO BILLIONAIRES
Is it presumptuous to "give advice" to billionaires...?
Well perhaps, if you think that money if the most important thing in life... Fortunately, I don't so here goes:
What Bill and Warren should be looking at is the QUALITY OF LIFE... not merely the QUANTITY OF LIFE...
Saving life is fine...vaccinations are wonderful...but if people are merely "kept alive" what's the point?
People need "something to do"...something to live FOR... It's not merely about "not dying"...it's about purposeful living.
If Free Trade and Globalism reduce the human life to a mere "input cost"...just keeping people alive so they can buy more stuff...or work cheaper will hardly be a benefit to anyone.
Seniors are "kept alive" thanks to new drugs...but to DO WHAT...? Watch more re-runs on TV Land...? And sit in rocking chairs? Whats' the point? Can the years from age 65 to age 85 ever have meaning...as those years did in the "olden" days for the lucky few who lived that long?
What is seriously lacking in the world today...is DEEPER MEANING.
We don't have the Gods to marvel at anymore...we are all secretly atheists. We don't have any of the over-arching mysteries that made life strange and enchanted as in the past. That lack of mystery is likely why these wilderness "survival" TV shows are so popular...people want meaning and mystery and adventure...not just "more stuff" in their lives.
Of course some born-agains and Muslim Jihadi...do have meaning in their lives...and that meaning is hate and fear and endless wars... This has been the real by-product of religion for thousands of years...
Can that be changed...?
The world today with Dubya and Osama and Kim is no better than it was in the dark ages in terms of the quality of our emotional and mental life. We have this near moron in charge in Washington...who follows the whims of the various hate groups that constitute his "base."
We have Osama and the radical Islamists, who offer Paradise through suicide and death...
HOW DID IT ALL GO SO WRONG...? AT THE DAWN OF OUR NEW TECHNOLOGICAL AGE WHICH BILL AND WARREN STARTED?
Perhaps, Bill and Warren should try to figure out how to restore meaning and mystery and a sense of common interest in the human race...and not merely obsess on "more stuff" and longer lives for people who have essentially lost the mystery and enchantment and wonder that sustained our ancestors for the millennia...
Indeed, before the suicide bomber and the hatemongers took over...and filled the deep void left by free trade and globalism's War of All Against All, and a science and technology that provides explanations of things...but not meaning.
Well perhaps, if you think that money if the most important thing in life... Fortunately, I don't so here goes:
What Bill and Warren should be looking at is the QUALITY OF LIFE... not merely the QUANTITY OF LIFE...
Saving life is fine...vaccinations are wonderful...but if people are merely "kept alive" what's the point?
People need "something to do"...something to live FOR... It's not merely about "not dying"...it's about purposeful living.
If Free Trade and Globalism reduce the human life to a mere "input cost"...just keeping people alive so they can buy more stuff...or work cheaper will hardly be a benefit to anyone.
Seniors are "kept alive" thanks to new drugs...but to DO WHAT...? Watch more re-runs on TV Land...? And sit in rocking chairs? Whats' the point? Can the years from age 65 to age 85 ever have meaning...as those years did in the "olden" days for the lucky few who lived that long?
What is seriously lacking in the world today...is DEEPER MEANING.
We don't have the Gods to marvel at anymore...we are all secretly atheists. We don't have any of the over-arching mysteries that made life strange and enchanted as in the past. That lack of mystery is likely why these wilderness "survival" TV shows are so popular...people want meaning and mystery and adventure...not just "more stuff" in their lives.
Of course some born-agains and Muslim Jihadi...do have meaning in their lives...and that meaning is hate and fear and endless wars... This has been the real by-product of religion for thousands of years...
Can that be changed...?
The world today with Dubya and Osama and Kim is no better than it was in the dark ages in terms of the quality of our emotional and mental life. We have this near moron in charge in Washington...who follows the whims of the various hate groups that constitute his "base."
We have Osama and the radical Islamists, who offer Paradise through suicide and death...
HOW DID IT ALL GO SO WRONG...? AT THE DAWN OF OUR NEW TECHNOLOGICAL AGE WHICH BILL AND WARREN STARTED?
Perhaps, Bill and Warren should try to figure out how to restore meaning and mystery and a sense of common interest in the human race...and not merely obsess on "more stuff" and longer lives for people who have essentially lost the mystery and enchantment and wonder that sustained our ancestors for the millennia...
Indeed, before the suicide bomber and the hatemongers took over...and filled the deep void left by free trade and globalism's War of All Against All, and a science and technology that provides explanations of things...but not meaning.
BUSH CLAMPS DOWN ON FREEDOM OF PRESS!
Alas, only two more years of this crowd...then a return to normalcy.
HARPER LEE WRITES FOR OPRAH!
Harper Lee wrote one book...To Kill a Mockingbird...and that was it.
She is also known as the best childhood friend of Truman Capote... I've often wondered if maybe, perhaps, Truman wrote To Kill a Mockingbird under Lee's name...? Hey, it's happen before...look at Shakespeare...way too much output for one man. Perhaps Shakespeare was better desribed as Shakespeare & Co. after all...maybe Sylvia Beach had it right all along...?
She is also known as the best childhood friend of Truman Capote... I've often wondered if maybe, perhaps, Truman wrote To Kill a Mockingbird under Lee's name...? Hey, it's happen before...look at Shakespeare...way too much output for one man. Perhaps Shakespeare was better desribed as Shakespeare & Co. after all...maybe Sylvia Beach had it right all along...?
WOULD 50 BP DO THE TRICK...
The link looks at the 50 BP scenario...which has been mentioned here serveral times.
The notion being that the FED SHOULD shock the markets...NOT CODDLE THEM.
After all that's what the FED did back in the olden days...say, pre-bubble Greenspan, remember, the "mysterious" meetings and the priesthood aura of the FED...
Then, the FED started kowtowing to the likes of Kudlow and Cramer...and there was a near total loss of control over monetary policy...
IT BECAME THE FED'S JOB TO "FIGURE OUT" WHAT WALL STREET WANTED....AND DELIVER IT!
THAT WAS THE ESSENCE OF GREENSPAN'S FED OF THE 1990's.
And it's been all down hill ever since...
The notion being that the FED SHOULD shock the markets...NOT CODDLE THEM.
After all that's what the FED did back in the olden days...say, pre-bubble Greenspan, remember, the "mysterious" meetings and the priesthood aura of the FED...
Then, the FED started kowtowing to the likes of Kudlow and Cramer...and there was a near total loss of control over monetary policy...
IT BECAME THE FED'S JOB TO "FIGURE OUT" WHAT WALL STREET WANTED....AND DELIVER IT!
THAT WAS THE ESSENCE OF GREENSPAN'S FED OF THE 1990's.
And it's been all down hill ever since...
Monday, June 26, 2006
WILL RATE HIKES "SAVE" THE DOLLAR?
And...as expected...lower the price of oil in the process?
THIS link says, so far, world investors are DUMPING THE DOLLAR...on the theory that higher rates mean a slower economy in the US!
Indeed the dollar fell today...on the very eve of the "Dollar-Saving" FED meeting!
Sometimes a decent central banker just can't win!
THIS link says, so far, world investors are DUMPING THE DOLLAR...on the theory that higher rates mean a slower economy in the US!
Indeed the dollar fell today...on the very eve of the "Dollar-Saving" FED meeting!
Sometimes a decent central banker just can't win!
COMING INVASION OF GAZA WILL ENFLAME MUSLIM WORLD!
Gold and Oil are going into orbit
...if Israel "invades" Gaza and kills hundreds of civilians in the process... This could be the big one...unless cooler heads prevail. But alas, cooler heads are in short supply these days as governments desperately seek to "distract" their various populations.
...if Israel "invades" Gaza and kills hundreds of civilians in the process... This could be the big one...unless cooler heads prevail. But alas, cooler heads are in short supply these days as governments desperately seek to "distract" their various populations.
PAKISTAN DESTABILIZING....?
If and when Pakistan becomes unstable...?
Well lets just say you ain't seen nothing yet! The ultimate result of Neocon aggression will be the total loss of the Muslim World ....
Did anyone ever really believe that ATTACKING PEOPLE MAKES YOU SAFE FROM ATTACK....
THAT IS COMPLETELY THE "SCHOOL YARD BULLY" WORLD VIEW.... WHERE ALAS, I SUSPECT DUBYA "QUIT LEARNING" MANY, MANY YEARS AGO...
Well lets just say you ain't seen nothing yet! The ultimate result of Neocon aggression will be the total loss of the Muslim World ....
Did anyone ever really believe that ATTACKING PEOPLE MAKES YOU SAFE FROM ATTACK....
THAT IS COMPLETELY THE "SCHOOL YARD BULLY" WORLD VIEW.... WHERE ALAS, I SUSPECT DUBYA "QUIT LEARNING" MANY, MANY YEARS AGO...
REAL ESTATE BUBBLE STILL ALIVE...!
Bernanke has a long, long way to go before he stops the inflationary/bubble mindset... No pause possible until FED funds hits 6%...and then? Well stay tuned.
The next three FED meetings are IN THE CAN...AS THEY SAY IN HOLLYWOOD!
The next three FED meetings are IN THE CAN...AS THEY SAY IN HOLLYWOOD!
STOCKS DAZED AND CONFUSED...
WHO WOULDN'T BE AT THIS POINT...! THE TOUTS REFUSE TO ADMIT THE TRUTH...AND THE DOOMSTERS ARE FACED WITH BUBBLE MONEY FIGHTING AGAINST THE INEVITABE... BEST TO JUST SIT AND WATCH THIS ONE... THE RESOLUTION WILL COME...BUT DON'T BET REAL MONEY ON IT ANY TIME SOON...
WHY BOTHER TO PLAY IN THIS SANDBOX...
WHY BOTHER TO PLAY IN THIS SANDBOX...
CUT AND RUN THE ONLY WAY OUT OF IRAQ....?
Well, Cheney and the Neocons could do a "John Wayne" and just back out smiling...!
MERGER ACTIVITY SHOWS LIQUIDITY STILL EXCESSIVE
The large number of Mergers lately shows that liquidity is still excessive in the US financial system....
Thus giving Bernanke permission to keep raising rates into the indefinite future.
M&A is not really "growth"...it is a substitute for growth found at the end of a boom...when real investments and business activity are hard to find or non-existent. Shades of the conglomerates of the late 60's!
M&A is bad for jobs....which are usually eliminated in quantity by the firms involved.
And most mergers "don't work out"...so sooner or later they have to be unwound, spun off, or otherwise deleveraged.
Any rallies this week will be short lived...and the yada yada after this FED meeting could quickly turn gloomy... if there is the prospect of ANOTHER RATE HIKE at the next meeting...and it is highly unlikely that the FED statement will give the speculators the "language" they are looking for.
Which considering the shrill nature of the media touts...WOULD BE AN APOLOGY AND ADMISSION OF GUILT BY BERNANKE!
MORE HIKES COMING...
AND 6% CD's AT YOUR LOCAL BANK BY THE END OF THE YEAR...? CASH IS STILL KING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
Thus giving Bernanke permission to keep raising rates into the indefinite future.
M&A is not really "growth"...it is a substitute for growth found at the end of a boom...when real investments and business activity are hard to find or non-existent. Shades of the conglomerates of the late 60's!
M&A is bad for jobs....which are usually eliminated in quantity by the firms involved.
And most mergers "don't work out"...so sooner or later they have to be unwound, spun off, or otherwise deleveraged.
Any rallies this week will be short lived...and the yada yada after this FED meeting could quickly turn gloomy... if there is the prospect of ANOTHER RATE HIKE at the next meeting...and it is highly unlikely that the FED statement will give the speculators the "language" they are looking for.
Which considering the shrill nature of the media touts...WOULD BE AN APOLOGY AND ADMISSION OF GUILT BY BERNANKE!
MORE HIKES COMING...
AND 6% CD's AT YOUR LOCAL BANK BY THE END OF THE YEAR...? CASH IS STILL KING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
Sunday, June 25, 2006
GOOD MORNING WALL STREET...
Another week on the wall of worry...? FED hike inevitable... Market Masters struggle to hold Dow 11,000....
FED HINT: 5.25 IS NOWHERE NEAR THE STOPPING POINT...
Bernanke won't be able to "pause" without crashing the bond markets...until say around...6% on FED funds and then it will all depend on the US "twin deficits"...are they getting better, (LOL) or worse...?
If the war is still raging and the K-Street Kongress is still spending...Bernanke will keep raising rates.
Amazingly, if the Democrats take one or both Houses of Congress...in November...My hunch is that the prospect of a "change of direction"...especially on the outrageous tax cuts...will boost bonds and the dollar...THEN AND ONLY THEN WILL BERNANKE BE ABLE TO PAUSE...
SO, A DEMOCRATIC SWEEP IN NOVEMBER IS "GOOD FOR WALL STREET!" GO FIGURE!!
Because there is NOW an entire school of thought that says: LOWER TAXES ARE NOT ALWAYS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY!!
All you have to do is be old enough to remember the Clinton Years to see the logic of this...!
More on this notion of raising taxes to prosper...later.
If the war is still raging and the K-Street Kongress is still spending...Bernanke will keep raising rates.
Amazingly, if the Democrats take one or both Houses of Congress...in November...My hunch is that the prospect of a "change of direction"...especially on the outrageous tax cuts...will boost bonds and the dollar...THEN AND ONLY THEN WILL BERNANKE BE ABLE TO PAUSE...
SO, A DEMOCRATIC SWEEP IN NOVEMBER IS "GOOD FOR WALL STREET!" GO FIGURE!!
Because there is NOW an entire school of thought that says: LOWER TAXES ARE NOT ALWAYS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY!!
All you have to do is be old enough to remember the Clinton Years to see the logic of this...!
More on this notion of raising taxes to prosper...later.
BERNANKE BASHING A NEW SPORT...?
The Bernanke Bashing is getting a bit extreme...
If people would simply get off Bernanke's back and let him do his job...without the speculators and their media shills chiming in every two minutes...things could go a lot smoother.
The Greenspan Bubble Daze is over...get used to it.
The Bubbles went on for far too long...and of course now there is a price to pay...
It's called higher rates...and probably substantially higher rates... And in a "best case scenario" that will be all that is needed.
But if the FED loses control of the dollar...by listening to the speculators and their peanut gallery pundits in the media...REAL DAMAGE could enuse.
GET OFF BERNANKE'S BACK...HE'S JUST DOING HIS JOB...BECAUSE SADDLY GREENSPAN LEFT HIM A MESS THAT WAS NOT OF HIS OWN MAKING...
A 7% FED FUNDS IS PROBABLY NEEDED AND NECESSARY TO "ADJUST" THE DOLLAR TO IT'S NEW STATUS IN THE WORLD...
WITHOUT THE NEEDED RATE HIKES...GAS COULD GO TO $5 PER GALLON...AND A DOLLAR COLLAPSE IS LIKELY.
If people would simply get off Bernanke's back and let him do his job...without the speculators and their media shills chiming in every two minutes...things could go a lot smoother.
The Greenspan Bubble Daze is over...get used to it.
The Bubbles went on for far too long...and of course now there is a price to pay...
It's called higher rates...and probably substantially higher rates... And in a "best case scenario" that will be all that is needed.
But if the FED loses control of the dollar...by listening to the speculators and their peanut gallery pundits in the media...REAL DAMAGE could enuse.
GET OFF BERNANKE'S BACK...HE'S JUST DOING HIS JOB...BECAUSE SADDLY GREENSPAN LEFT HIM A MESS THAT WAS NOT OF HIS OWN MAKING...
A 7% FED FUNDS IS PROBABLY NEEDED AND NECESSARY TO "ADJUST" THE DOLLAR TO IT'S NEW STATUS IN THE WORLD...
WITHOUT THE NEEDED RATE HIKES...GAS COULD GO TO $5 PER GALLON...AND A DOLLAR COLLAPSE IS LIKELY.
SUNDAY TALKS...
The Sunday Talks were interesting for what they didn't say...
First no mention of the Miami Afro-Islamist "Terror Cell" smirkingly announced by the Torture Guy last week. Nothing! It was a non event as most things are involving black people in the main stream US media.
The notion of "amnesty" for Iraqi insurgents who "killed Americans" was the topic du jour...with Democrats trying to sneak to the right of the president by "abhoring" any consideration of such a thing...
Of course no one mentioned that the Green Zone Government is supposed to be "sovereign" in Iraq...NOT a US puppet! Again the idea of the Iraqi "people" or their supposed "government" simply asking the US to leave ASAP...seems to be getting more "doable" everyday.
My sense is that Hillary is toast as a viable presidential candidate...after all she was the victim of the Bill-Moncia Affair...and NO ONE really wants to relive that unpleasantness. But I think Hillary could be a great Senator from New York for years to come... Not bad for a "booby prize"....
I would like to see Democrats give up their search for a "new leader"...and start trying to define their agenda... something with a "name."
Perhaps...the "New Progressives"...or "Fairness for America" or "Born Again Democrats"...
TO WIN IN AMERICAN POLITICS TODAY YOU NEED A SIMPLE MOTTO OR SLOGAN...ONE THAT CAN BE REPEATED OVER AND OVER, UNTIL EVEN THE DULLEST VOTER "GETS IT."
SOMETHING LIKE "FLIP FLOP" OR "CUT AND RUN" EXCEPT FOR THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE...
DEMOCRATS DON'T HAVE A CLEAR LEADER...AND THEY DON'T HAVE A SIMPLE SLOGAN...AND THAT HAS BEEN THEIR DOWNFALL IN THE LAST TWO ELELCTIONS...
THE PROBLEM WITH SLOGANS IS THAT THEY GENERALLY WORK BEST WITH "NO-BRAINER" EMOTIONS...LIKE HATE, FEAR OR GREED...
AND ALAS, THE PROGRESSIVES ARE ALWAYS ARGUING FOR THE HIGHER IDEALS OF TOLERANCE AND FAIRNESS...WHICH OPERATE A BIT FURTHER UP THE BRAIN STEM...AND ARE LESS EASILY EXPLAINED AT THE "SLOGAN" LEVEL...
In other words...Progressives have to explain themselves...
Whereas folks like Dubya & Co can just keep barking out a SAME slogans of hate, fear or intolerance...and "connect" with their target audience.
Flip Flop Flip Flop...Cut and Run, Cut and Run...!
PROGRESSIVE SHOULD START COMING UP WITH SOME REALLY DAMNING SLOGANS ASAP...
AND IF THEY CAN'T THINK OF ANY BY NOW!!
....WELL MAYBE THEY DON'T DESERVE TO GOVERN!
First no mention of the Miami Afro-Islamist "Terror Cell" smirkingly announced by the Torture Guy last week. Nothing! It was a non event as most things are involving black people in the main stream US media.
The notion of "amnesty" for Iraqi insurgents who "killed Americans" was the topic du jour...with Democrats trying to sneak to the right of the president by "abhoring" any consideration of such a thing...
Of course no one mentioned that the Green Zone Government is supposed to be "sovereign" in Iraq...NOT a US puppet! Again the idea of the Iraqi "people" or their supposed "government" simply asking the US to leave ASAP...seems to be getting more "doable" everyday.
My sense is that Hillary is toast as a viable presidential candidate...after all she was the victim of the Bill-Moncia Affair...and NO ONE really wants to relive that unpleasantness. But I think Hillary could be a great Senator from New York for years to come... Not bad for a "booby prize"....
I would like to see Democrats give up their search for a "new leader"...and start trying to define their agenda... something with a "name."
Perhaps...the "New Progressives"...or "Fairness for America" or "Born Again Democrats"...
TO WIN IN AMERICAN POLITICS TODAY YOU NEED A SIMPLE MOTTO OR SLOGAN...ONE THAT CAN BE REPEATED OVER AND OVER, UNTIL EVEN THE DULLEST VOTER "GETS IT."
SOMETHING LIKE "FLIP FLOP" OR "CUT AND RUN" EXCEPT FOR THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE...
DEMOCRATS DON'T HAVE A CLEAR LEADER...AND THEY DON'T HAVE A SIMPLE SLOGAN...AND THAT HAS BEEN THEIR DOWNFALL IN THE LAST TWO ELELCTIONS...
THE PROBLEM WITH SLOGANS IS THAT THEY GENERALLY WORK BEST WITH "NO-BRAINER" EMOTIONS...LIKE HATE, FEAR OR GREED...
AND ALAS, THE PROGRESSIVES ARE ALWAYS ARGUING FOR THE HIGHER IDEALS OF TOLERANCE AND FAIRNESS...WHICH OPERATE A BIT FURTHER UP THE BRAIN STEM...AND ARE LESS EASILY EXPLAINED AT THE "SLOGAN" LEVEL...
In other words...Progressives have to explain themselves...
Whereas folks like Dubya & Co can just keep barking out a SAME slogans of hate, fear or intolerance...and "connect" with their target audience.
Flip Flop Flip Flop...Cut and Run, Cut and Run...!
PROGRESSIVE SHOULD START COMING UP WITH SOME REALLY DAMNING SLOGANS ASAP...
AND IF THEY CAN'T THINK OF ANY BY NOW!!
....WELL MAYBE THEY DON'T DESERVE TO GOVERN!
IRAN AND SYRIA PUT THE PINCH ON BUSH...GRAND ALLIANCE FORMING?
This alliance between Iran and Syria to put the pinch on the Neocon Occupation of Iraq is potentially dangerous for US policy in the middle east...
If the Shia and the Sunni nations can unite against US interests in their region; and have on going strategic dialogues, without US participation, serious consequences could result.
But then Dubya & Co never did like to "talk with" "these people" anyway...taking their cue from Israel.
So there could be a trend developing in the middle east to openly criticize American policy...on all fronts.
And even "our puppets" are doing this now!
Karzai in Afghanistan has been very critical of Western disregard for Muslim Life...with the various bombings of villages.
And, the "new government" in Iraq as be highly critical of the behavior of US troops toward Iraqi civilians...
A possible strategic scenario is:
A GREAT ALLIANCE OF MUSLIM NATIONS AGAINST THE "GREAT SATAN" IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN GENERAL...AND IN IRAQ IN PARTICULAR.
At that point Bush would have the rest of his term to "invade and conquor" the entire middle east...against the will of the native population and governments...and naturally THAT just isn't going to happen.
My hunch is that UNLIKE in Vietnam...AT SOME POINT THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT AND PEOPLE WILL POLITELY ASK THE US TO GET OUT OF THEIR COUNTRY...AND LET THEM FIGHT IT OUT WITHOUT THE "GREAT SATAN" MUCKING THINGS UP AT EVERY TURN...
IT'S JUST POSSIBLE...that is how THIS ENDS.
If the Shia and the Sunni nations can unite against US interests in their region; and have on going strategic dialogues, without US participation, serious consequences could result.
But then Dubya & Co never did like to "talk with" "these people" anyway...taking their cue from Israel.
So there could be a trend developing in the middle east to openly criticize American policy...on all fronts.
And even "our puppets" are doing this now!
Karzai in Afghanistan has been very critical of Western disregard for Muslim Life...with the various bombings of villages.
And, the "new government" in Iraq as be highly critical of the behavior of US troops toward Iraqi civilians...
A possible strategic scenario is:
A GREAT ALLIANCE OF MUSLIM NATIONS AGAINST THE "GREAT SATAN" IN THE MIDDLE EAST IN GENERAL...AND IN IRAQ IN PARTICULAR.
At that point Bush would have the rest of his term to "invade and conquor" the entire middle east...against the will of the native population and governments...and naturally THAT just isn't going to happen.
My hunch is that UNLIKE in Vietnam...AT SOME POINT THE IRAQI GOVERNMENT AND PEOPLE WILL POLITELY ASK THE US TO GET OUT OF THEIR COUNTRY...AND LET THEM FIGHT IT OUT WITHOUT THE "GREAT SATAN" MUCKING THINGS UP AT EVERY TURN...
IT'S JUST POSSIBLE...that is how THIS ENDS.
Saturday, June 24, 2006
BERNANKE WILL GO TO 7%...
The chorus of protest from the Wall Street shills is continuing apace....
But, what they are missing is that "inflation" in this case simply means a "weak dollar."
No one protested when asset prices were inflating wildly in the 90's under Greenspan's Bubblenomics... But now that very same hyper-liquidity that "funded" the 90's is sloshing over into the forsaken commodities markets.
Did anyone think it wouldn't...!
Add the unfunded, unwinnable, unpopular and probably unjust wars...and you have 1968 Redux...
AND IF 1968 COMES...CAN 1971 BE FAR BEHIND??
My hunch is that rates will have to keep going up to "de-fund" the asset bubbles of the Greenspan Daze... And that means BOTH housing and stocks. In the meantime gold, oil and other hard commodities ignored during the 90's will soar...
Or call it "playing catch up" to the other asset prices that experienced a MOONSHOT during the asset bubbles of the Greenspan Era.
THE SHRILL SCREAMS WILL ONLY GET LOUDER AS THE SUMMER GOES ON... THE VERY BEST THAT CAN BE HOPED FOR IS "STABILITY"...NO SUDDEN INCREASES...CAUSED BY "EVENTS" BEYOND OUR CONTROL.
Given the fundamental and structural problems of the US economy...a 7% FED funds seems reasonable. But any unforseen disasters like a hedge fund collapse or trouble at FANNIE or FREDDIE because of the coming "Foreclosure Fest" could put the dollar out of the FEDs control...and a devaluation could be swift, sudden and unpleasant for everyone and everything denominated in dollars.
But, what they are missing is that "inflation" in this case simply means a "weak dollar."
No one protested when asset prices were inflating wildly in the 90's under Greenspan's Bubblenomics... But now that very same hyper-liquidity that "funded" the 90's is sloshing over into the forsaken commodities markets.
Did anyone think it wouldn't...!
Add the unfunded, unwinnable, unpopular and probably unjust wars...and you have 1968 Redux...
AND IF 1968 COMES...CAN 1971 BE FAR BEHIND??
My hunch is that rates will have to keep going up to "de-fund" the asset bubbles of the Greenspan Daze... And that means BOTH housing and stocks. In the meantime gold, oil and other hard commodities ignored during the 90's will soar...
Or call it "playing catch up" to the other asset prices that experienced a MOONSHOT during the asset bubbles of the Greenspan Era.
THE SHRILL SCREAMS WILL ONLY GET LOUDER AS THE SUMMER GOES ON... THE VERY BEST THAT CAN BE HOPED FOR IS "STABILITY"...NO SUDDEN INCREASES...CAUSED BY "EVENTS" BEYOND OUR CONTROL.
Given the fundamental and structural problems of the US economy...a 7% FED funds seems reasonable. But any unforseen disasters like a hedge fund collapse or trouble at FANNIE or FREDDIE because of the coming "Foreclosure Fest" could put the dollar out of the FEDs control...and a devaluation could be swift, sudden and unpleasant for everyone and everything denominated in dollars.
WELCOME NEW READERS...
This is where you want to be at least once every business day.
So, take the guess work out of it...and bookmark this page now.
Or, better yet put a RSS "news feed" on your Yahoo, MSN or Google "News Reader"...see the side bar for links.
And, be sure to use ALL of the side bar links...each picture has a "secret link"...for example, the gold coin goes to the FED. The globe at the bottom is a link to all newspapers in the US and the world!
This is the spin-free, anti-spin page you've been hoping to find on the WEB...especially if "getting it right" the first time is important to you.
Need proof? Simply read the archives.
Always fresh 24.7.365...
So, take the guess work out of it...and bookmark this page now.
Or, better yet put a RSS "news feed" on your Yahoo, MSN or Google "News Reader"...see the side bar for links.
And, be sure to use ALL of the side bar links...each picture has a "secret link"...for example, the gold coin goes to the FED. The globe at the bottom is a link to all newspapers in the US and the world!
This is the spin-free, anti-spin page you've been hoping to find on the WEB...especially if "getting it right" the first time is important to you.
Need proof? Simply read the archives.
Always fresh 24.7.365...
MIAMI TERRORISTS PLANNED "FULL GROUND WAR" ON US!
According to the "Torture Guy" the "Miami Seven" homeless terrorists planned a "full ground war" on the US!
Why?
Well, probably because homeless black folks can't afford airline tickets! Homeless people usually take the bus...
Even the Torture Guy was smirking a little when he announced this "bust" of a "terror cell."
IF THIS IS THE BEST THE REPUBLICANS CAN DO IN AN ELECTION YEAR...I'D RECOMMEND GOING BACK TO THE TRIED AND TRUE "CODE ORANGE" CHARADE THAT WORKED SO WELL DURING THE KERRY CAMPAIGN IN 2004...
The Torture Guy didn't say whether the "troops" for the "full ground war" would come from the Miami Ghettos...or an amphibious invasion from Haiti!!
But give them time...the election isn't until November! The White House may think that ANY publicity to distract the public is good publicity at this point... But I don't buy it. People will see through these nut case terror cells sooner or later.
Fear, hate and greed are the stock in trade of the Republican Party...but lately all of that has been in short supply, as people finally come to grips with the damage Dubya & Co have done to America, both at home and abroad.
Why?
Well, probably because homeless black folks can't afford airline tickets! Homeless people usually take the bus...
Even the Torture Guy was smirking a little when he announced this "bust" of a "terror cell."
IF THIS IS THE BEST THE REPUBLICANS CAN DO IN AN ELECTION YEAR...I'D RECOMMEND GOING BACK TO THE TRIED AND TRUE "CODE ORANGE" CHARADE THAT WORKED SO WELL DURING THE KERRY CAMPAIGN IN 2004...
The Torture Guy didn't say whether the "troops" for the "full ground war" would come from the Miami Ghettos...or an amphibious invasion from Haiti!!
But give them time...the election isn't until November! The White House may think that ANY publicity to distract the public is good publicity at this point... But I don't buy it. People will see through these nut case terror cells sooner or later.
Fear, hate and greed are the stock in trade of the Republican Party...but lately all of that has been in short supply, as people finally come to grips with the damage Dubya & Co have done to America, both at home and abroad.
BANK SNOOPING COULD DAMAGE THE DOLLAR...
As if the dollar doesn't have enough problems...!
This Bank Snooping Program that Cheney, et al, are pushing could really damage the dollar; and make Bernanke's desperate "rescue attempt"for the dollar even harder to do.
The mega rich like to hide their money in various off shore locations...of course, the terrorists do too...so there is a problem.
If the few global terrorists go to cash and gold...the mega rich, who are more likely to be caught in any drag net, may be forced out of the dollar too, and into alternative "friendlier" currencies like the Euro or the Yet...
THE BUSH/CHENEY PARANOIA COULD DO SERIOUS DAMAGE TO THE DOLLAR...AS THEY GRASP AT STRAWS TO JUSTIFY THEIR DISASTER IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN...BEFORE THE ELECITONS.
ALAS, BERNANKE NEEDS HELP, NOT HYPE, FROM WASHINGTON, IF HE IS EVER GOING TO STOP THE CURRENT RUSH TO GOLD...AND AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR...
This Bank Snooping Program that Cheney, et al, are pushing could really damage the dollar; and make Bernanke's desperate "rescue attempt"for the dollar even harder to do.
The mega rich like to hide their money in various off shore locations...of course, the terrorists do too...so there is a problem.
If the few global terrorists go to cash and gold...the mega rich, who are more likely to be caught in any drag net, may be forced out of the dollar too, and into alternative "friendlier" currencies like the Euro or the Yet...
THE BUSH/CHENEY PARANOIA COULD DO SERIOUS DAMAGE TO THE DOLLAR...AS THEY GRASP AT STRAWS TO JUSTIFY THEIR DISASTER IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN...BEFORE THE ELECITONS.
ALAS, BERNANKE NEEDS HELP, NOT HYPE, FROM WASHINGTON, IF HE IS EVER GOING TO STOP THE CURRENT RUSH TO GOLD...AND AWAY FROM THE DOLLAR...
ARE THE HOMELESS AND MENTALLY ILL REALLY "TERROR THREATS?"
Do we need political prosecutions for these sad cases...that are legion in every inter-city ghetto and small town rural tavern...
Or maybe some counselling and medications...?
How credible was the "Miami Seven" threat...or was it just a set up of really sad and unfortunate people...who have fallen through the social safety net.
I'm more concerned with well educated, well fincanced Middle Eastern Islamists...than "home grown" nut cases which are everywhere really!
Actually jailing the Miami Seven will be good for them...at least they'll get three square meals, a place to sleep and medical attention.
THIS PITIFUL PUBLICITY STUNT BY THE WHITE HOUSE WILL BE OBVIOUS SOON...AND THEN LIKELY IT WILL BE DROPPED BY THE MEDIA FOR LACK OF INTEREST...AS THE REPUBLICANS SEEK NEW AND EVER GREATER DISTRACTIONS FOR THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE...
It was interesting watching the reaction in Chicago to the supposed "threat" from the "homeless" Miami Seven. LoL. These people were more dangerous to neighborhood convenience store cashiers...than to "homeland security"...but having them off the street is a good thing I suppose.
Soon people will see this episode for what it really was: A political ploy to appear to be doing something on terrorism... At the time when the president's polls are plunging...and people are getting fed up with the unwinnable optional wars.
What is amazing and somewhat reassuring is the near total absence of "real terrorists" inside the US...despite the "illegal" drag nets and sweeps that White House has been sanctioning...
Or maybe some counselling and medications...?
How credible was the "Miami Seven" threat...or was it just a set up of really sad and unfortunate people...who have fallen through the social safety net.
I'm more concerned with well educated, well fincanced Middle Eastern Islamists...than "home grown" nut cases which are everywhere really!
Actually jailing the Miami Seven will be good for them...at least they'll get three square meals, a place to sleep and medical attention.
THIS PITIFUL PUBLICITY STUNT BY THE WHITE HOUSE WILL BE OBVIOUS SOON...AND THEN LIKELY IT WILL BE DROPPED BY THE MEDIA FOR LACK OF INTEREST...AS THE REPUBLICANS SEEK NEW AND EVER GREATER DISTRACTIONS FOR THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE...
It was interesting watching the reaction in Chicago to the supposed "threat" from the "homeless" Miami Seven. LoL. These people were more dangerous to neighborhood convenience store cashiers...than to "homeland security"...but having them off the street is a good thing I suppose.
Soon people will see this episode for what it really was: A political ploy to appear to be doing something on terrorism... At the time when the president's polls are plunging...and people are getting fed up with the unwinnable optional wars.
What is amazing and somewhat reassuring is the near total absence of "real terrorists" inside the US...despite the "illegal" drag nets and sweeps that White House has been sanctioning...
Friday, June 23, 2006
GOLD BUGS BITE BACK...
The real story of the week is the revival of the Gold Bugs...
After being left for dead by the side of the road...suddenly COMMODITIES ARE BAAAACK...!
Like one of those slasher movie "evil ones..."
You just can't knock a good commodity down for long! And the yada yada is that the Commodities Crowd is back and looking for a fight this summer...in the (trading) pits.
After being left for dead by the side of the road...suddenly COMMODITIES ARE BAAAACK...!
Like one of those slasher movie "evil ones..."
You just can't knock a good commodity down for long! And the yada yada is that the Commodities Crowd is back and looking for a fight this summer...in the (trading) pits.
BERNANKE IS DEFENDING THE DOLLAR...BUT NOT ENOUGH!
This notion that the FED is going too far is just incredible...
Do they really think that Bernanke has any choice? The debts and deficits are destroying the dollar... That's the real story that no one wants to talk about...
So they persist and asking: Why is the FED being nasty to the Wall Street Speculators...? You will notice that none of the "too far" crowd EVER MENTIONS THE DOLLAR!!
Do they really think that Bernanke has any choice? The debts and deficits are destroying the dollar... That's the real story that no one wants to talk about...
So they persist and asking: Why is the FED being nasty to the Wall Street Speculators...? You will notice that none of the "too far" crowd EVER MENTIONS THE DOLLAR!!
HOW BUSH LOST SOMALIA...
Dubya may have his naughty puppets in Afghanistan...but what of Somalia?
BUSH LOST SOMALIA...AND THE RADICAL ISLAMISTS WILL NOW HAVE A NEW TRAINING CAMP...
As long as the US keeps backing the low life "war lords" and "drug lords" in Islamic countries the credibility of the US worldwide will continue to fall... This should be so obvious...but with an incurious bunch running things in Washington...even the obvious is often ignored.
Only a new Democratic president can bring America back in the eyes of the world...
BUSH LOST SOMALIA...AND THE RADICAL ISLAMISTS WILL NOW HAVE A NEW TRAINING CAMP...
As long as the US keeps backing the low life "war lords" and "drug lords" in Islamic countries the credibility of the US worldwide will continue to fall... This should be so obvious...but with an incurious bunch running things in Washington...even the obvious is often ignored.
Only a new Democratic president can bring America back in the eyes of the world...
MENTALLY ILL OR TERRORISTS....?
If the Bush administration needs a boost in the polls...arresting groups of "terrorists" like the ones in Miami could backfire...
It's pretty obvious that this Miami "cell" was a little nutty....
But there are a lot of nut cases out their who could be charged with "war" against the Unitied States.
Remember the militia nutcases from a few year ago...? They were white guys though...
This "Miami Cell" seems like a bunch of inner-city street people who wanted to act like they're in control by pitiful play acting...alas for a government informant in this case...
These NUT CASE TERRORISTS are a dime a dozen...just walk down the street of any ghetto...everyone has an opinion! True, most of these people belong in a hospital or jail or on medication...but can we really afford it?
Now, the administration is stuck with prosecuting "terrorists" who are going to turn out to be a bunch of HOMELESS people, who are really more the victims of a system that has cast them on to the social and economic scrap heap--totally without a "safety net."
Also, by going after blacks who claim to be "Muslims," the administration is going to anger the black community just before the election...
SO NOW BOTH BLACKS AND HISPANICS WILL COME OUT IN GREATER NUMBERS TO VOTE AGAINST THE REPUBLICANS THIS FALL!!
It's pretty obvious that this Miami "cell" was a little nutty....
But there are a lot of nut cases out their who could be charged with "war" against the Unitied States.
Remember the militia nutcases from a few year ago...? They were white guys though...
This "Miami Cell" seems like a bunch of inner-city street people who wanted to act like they're in control by pitiful play acting...alas for a government informant in this case...
These NUT CASE TERRORISTS are a dime a dozen...just walk down the street of any ghetto...everyone has an opinion! True, most of these people belong in a hospital or jail or on medication...but can we really afford it?
Now, the administration is stuck with prosecuting "terrorists" who are going to turn out to be a bunch of HOMELESS people, who are really more the victims of a system that has cast them on to the social and economic scrap heap--totally without a "safety net."
Also, by going after blacks who claim to be "Muslims," the administration is going to anger the black community just before the election...
SO NOW BOTH BLACKS AND HISPANICS WILL COME OUT IN GREATER NUMBERS TO VOTE AGAINST THE REPUBLICANS THIS FALL!!
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
WHY THE RALLY...? PURE DISTRIBUTION THATS' ALL.
Today's rally about nothing has a lot of people wondering...
But the market masters seem to be obsessing with keeping the Dow above 11,000.
Everytime to Dow slips below 11,000...there is an amazingly strong rally within days.
My hunch is that the market masters realize that "the jig is up" and they want to preserve the old joy as long as possible.... And probably DISTRIBUTE SOME STOCK!
Today's rally was "frozen" in place by noon....and stayed put for the rest of the day...and the volume was low...
This is usually a sign that some "distribution" is going on...and the "smart money" is leaving...but without showing signs of panic.
IF THIS IS A DISTRIBUTION PHASE...A SUBSTANTIAL DROP COULD BE COMING LATER THIS SUMMER...AS THE MARKET BECOMES MORE DISORDERLY.
But the market masters seem to be obsessing with keeping the Dow above 11,000.
Everytime to Dow slips below 11,000...there is an amazingly strong rally within days.
My hunch is that the market masters realize that "the jig is up" and they want to preserve the old joy as long as possible.... And probably DISTRIBUTE SOME STOCK!
Today's rally was "frozen" in place by noon....and stayed put for the rest of the day...and the volume was low...
This is usually a sign that some "distribution" is going on...and the "smart money" is leaving...but without showing signs of panic.
IF THIS IS A DISTRIBUTION PHASE...A SUBSTANTIAL DROP COULD BE COMING LATER THIS SUMMER...AS THE MARKET BECOMES MORE DISORDERLY.
PLUTO'S NEW MOONS NAMED...
As odd as Pluto is...it's amazing that it has even one moon... But anything large enough to have three moons...count 'em...must NOW surely qualify as a "planet." Ya suppose?
GOLD STOCKS SOAR!!
Maybe someone read my notion that Bernanke can't save the dollar all by himself...? After all, the yada yada was that Bernanke was the center of the universe...and the FED could do anything at anytime...
Well, maybe not...
And this idea that oil inventories are at an 8 year high...and oil is still at 70 needs some explaining...?
UNLESS? OIL TRADERS TOO SEE BERNANKE AS UNABLE TO "SAVE THE DOLLAR" BY HIMSELF THIS TIME AROUND!
Now that IS a scary thought...oil traders who actually "think" that is...
But then, Volker didn't exactly have a cakewalk the last time a big war and a bad president trashed the dollar...
Well, maybe not...
And this idea that oil inventories are at an 8 year high...and oil is still at 70 needs some explaining...?
UNLESS? OIL TRADERS TOO SEE BERNANKE AS UNABLE TO "SAVE THE DOLLAR" BY HIMSELF THIS TIME AROUND!
Now that IS a scary thought...oil traders who actually "think" that is...
But then, Volker didn't exactly have a cakewalk the last time a big war and a bad president trashed the dollar...
RALLY ABOUT NOTHING...
Perhaps buy Morgan Stanley or FEDEX...if you want to buy yesterday's news... But the Dow...? I don't see it...
Still there is so much liquidity "sloshing" around out there that the money has to go somewhere...
Perhaps the B-Man will "handle" this excessive liquidity later this year...? Thus solving our persistant asset inflation problem.
Note also....oil inventories at eight year high...but oil is still up on the day!
Still there is so much liquidity "sloshing" around out there that the money has to go somewhere...
Perhaps the B-Man will "handle" this excessive liquidity later this year...? Thus solving our persistant asset inflation problem.
Note also....oil inventories at eight year high...but oil is still up on the day!
SPECULATIVE CLIMAX FOR THE BROKERAGES
When the likes of Morgan Stanley double their profits...as today...the FED is NOWHERE NEAR DONE RAISING RATES...
SPECULATION IS ALIVE AND WELL IN THE US ECONOMY...AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE MANY MANY MORE RATE HIKES TO KNOCK IN DOWN FOR GOOD...
There is huge liquidity "trapped" in the corporate sector even yet...hence the ample money available for M&A, debt issuance, AND commodities specualtion.
ULESS AND UNTIL THE BIG MONEY FEELS THE FED'S TIGHTENING OF MONEY...THE INFLATION THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN COMMODIITIES AND THE REST OF THE ECONOMY.
ALAS, YOU CAN'T "SOLVE" THE CURRENT INFLATIONARY SURGE MERELY BY BASHING THE CONSUMER ALONE...
THE FED SIMPLY MUST GO AFTER THE BIG BROKERAGES AND THE INVESTMENT BANKS...AS LONG AS THEY ARE HAVING MASSIVE PROFITS...ON THE ORDER OF THE OIL COMPANIES...THE FEDS JOB IS NOT DONE.
RATE HIKES FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR ARE NOW INEVITABLE...
A 7% FED FUNDS IS ALMOST A GIVEN...TO SOAK UP THE GREENSPAN HYPERLIQUIDITY NOW TRAPPED ON WALL STREET.
SPECULATION IS ALIVE AND WELL IN THE US ECONOMY...AND IT'S GOING TO TAKE MANY MANY MORE RATE HIKES TO KNOCK IN DOWN FOR GOOD...
There is huge liquidity "trapped" in the corporate sector even yet...hence the ample money available for M&A, debt issuance, AND commodities specualtion.
ULESS AND UNTIL THE BIG MONEY FEELS THE FED'S TIGHTENING OF MONEY...THE INFLATION THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN COMMODIITIES AND THE REST OF THE ECONOMY.
ALAS, YOU CAN'T "SOLVE" THE CURRENT INFLATIONARY SURGE MERELY BY BASHING THE CONSUMER ALONE...
THE FED SIMPLY MUST GO AFTER THE BIG BROKERAGES AND THE INVESTMENT BANKS...AS LONG AS THEY ARE HAVING MASSIVE PROFITS...ON THE ORDER OF THE OIL COMPANIES...THE FEDS JOB IS NOT DONE.
RATE HIKES FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR ARE NOW INEVITABLE...
A 7% FED FUNDS IS ALMOST A GIVEN...TO SOAK UP THE GREENSPAN HYPERLIQUIDITY NOW TRAPPED ON WALL STREET.
NEWS FROM THE DEFLATION CAMP...
And a stronger Euro looms...? A stronger Euro could mean higher dollar prices for gold... But gold seems to be recovering on it's own after the big selloff.
The notion that some parts of the economy are "deflating" even while others continue to inflate is odd... And it comes from this strange period of "globalization" that the US economy in particular is in...
The dollar has been "allowed" violate the rules of balance of payments for so long that many people think the dollar is exempt from the normal rules of economics.
But if dollar "exceptionalism" is ever seriously challenged in the markets...the collapse of the dollar would be MASSIVELY inflationary on ALL SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY....
And the uniquely American "slow boat from China" deflation would disappear overnight!
We seem to be in a period where the OLD RULES are coming back...but the NEW ECONOMY CROWD is still ignoring the paradigm shift away from DOLLAR EXCEPTIONALISM...
This could be THE story for 2007 and even the last quarter of 2006,...as big changes take place in Washington after the elections.
The notion that some parts of the economy are "deflating" even while others continue to inflate is odd... And it comes from this strange period of "globalization" that the US economy in particular is in...
The dollar has been "allowed" violate the rules of balance of payments for so long that many people think the dollar is exempt from the normal rules of economics.
But if dollar "exceptionalism" is ever seriously challenged in the markets...the collapse of the dollar would be MASSIVELY inflationary on ALL SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY....
And the uniquely American "slow boat from China" deflation would disappear overnight!
We seem to be in a period where the OLD RULES are coming back...but the NEW ECONOMY CROWD is still ignoring the paradigm shift away from DOLLAR EXCEPTIONALISM...
This could be THE story for 2007 and even the last quarter of 2006,...as big changes take place in Washington after the elections.
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
A CONSERVATIVE ENCYCLOPEDIA...
Conservativism offers greed for the rich. Hate to the poor. And fear for everybody.
But to the extent that conservativism says: the very poor should not run things for too long...they are correct.
The flip side is that the very rich should not run things for too long either.
What conservatives miss is that this is not a frontier economy anymore...where the individual can survive on their own.
COMPETENT GOVERNMENT is necessary to provide physical, economic and social infrastructures and "safety nets"...or the modern consumer capitalist system will collapse. The dilemma is how to provide a "safety net" without providing a "life style." And this applies equally to welfare moms and defense contractors!!
Liberals are not perfect, to be sure...but at least they aren't dangerously wrong.
Its really a ying yan thing... We've had the ying...now it's time for a little yan.
But to the extent that conservativism says: the very poor should not run things for too long...they are correct.
The flip side is that the very rich should not run things for too long either.
What conservatives miss is that this is not a frontier economy anymore...where the individual can survive on their own.
COMPETENT GOVERNMENT is necessary to provide physical, economic and social infrastructures and "safety nets"...or the modern consumer capitalist system will collapse. The dilemma is how to provide a "safety net" without providing a "life style." And this applies equally to welfare moms and defense contractors!!
Liberals are not perfect, to be sure...but at least they aren't dangerously wrong.
Its really a ying yan thing... We've had the ying...now it's time for a little yan.
GOLD HAS RARE GOOD DAY...
Maybe the dust is settling in the gold mines...? Because:
The notion that The FED can "save the dollar" and send commodities plunging with another 25 BP rate hike is a little nuts...
Considering:
1. The unfunded, unwinnable, unpopular and unjust war spending.
2. The crashing house price bubble which will impact Freddie and Fannie disasterously, even if their books are straightened out in time. Because, a Foreclosure Fest looms in many areas...
3. The Big Pension Dump as firms try to become "competitive" by letting the FEDs pick up their pension costs. Not to mention the health care costs for their illegal workers.
4. The K-Street Kongress which is letting the lobbyists write the spending bills.
5. A social safety net that is in tatters because of incompetence and milking of the system by Big Pharma, Health Care Providers and Insurance Companies.
6. A president that has never vetoed a spending bill...not even the Medicare Drug Fisasco which is coming apart at the seams...as thousands of "providers" seek a seat on the Federal Gravy Train.
7. The Greenspan Bubble Years...with its massive inflation of assets of every kind and stripe...now including oil and gold! Greenspan never saw at asset he didn't want to start a bubble in!
8. Crooks in the real estate mortgage game...Shades of the S&L Crisis...which could look like small potatoes after this bubble breaks.
9. A world that Hates Bush...to be blunt. And that causes real trouble for all Americans overseas who try to do business in a hostile environment.
10. Finally, something there is that does not love an older reserve currency... The dollar has had a great run from Bretton Woods 'til now...not without some minor unpleasantness...from time to time. But old reserve currencies never die...they just start to look like the British Pound... Reserve currencies have a shelve life...and the dollar is way beyond it's expiration date. Something new is probably necessary...
The notion that The FED can "save the dollar" and send commodities plunging with another 25 BP rate hike is a little nuts...
Considering:
1. The unfunded, unwinnable, unpopular and unjust war spending.
2. The crashing house price bubble which will impact Freddie and Fannie disasterously, even if their books are straightened out in time. Because, a Foreclosure Fest looms in many areas...
3. The Big Pension Dump as firms try to become "competitive" by letting the FEDs pick up their pension costs. Not to mention the health care costs for their illegal workers.
4. The K-Street Kongress which is letting the lobbyists write the spending bills.
5. A social safety net that is in tatters because of incompetence and milking of the system by Big Pharma, Health Care Providers and Insurance Companies.
6. A president that has never vetoed a spending bill...not even the Medicare Drug Fisasco which is coming apart at the seams...as thousands of "providers" seek a seat on the Federal Gravy Train.
7. The Greenspan Bubble Years...with its massive inflation of assets of every kind and stripe...now including oil and gold! Greenspan never saw at asset he didn't want to start a bubble in!
8. Crooks in the real estate mortgage game...Shades of the S&L Crisis...which could look like small potatoes after this bubble breaks.
9. A world that Hates Bush...to be blunt. And that causes real trouble for all Americans overseas who try to do business in a hostile environment.
10. Finally, something there is that does not love an older reserve currency... The dollar has had a great run from Bretton Woods 'til now...not without some minor unpleasantness...from time to time. But old reserve currencies never die...they just start to look like the British Pound... Reserve currencies have a shelve life...and the dollar is way beyond it's expiration date. Something new is probably necessary...
NOW IS IT TIME TO CUT AND RUN...?
Everyday Iraq becomes more of a nightmare scenario...
Generally, if going in was a mistake...staying will also be a mistake.
Is that really so hard to see...? We'll have more of the same as the summer goes on.
Generally, if going in was a mistake...staying will also be a mistake.
Is that really so hard to see...? We'll have more of the same as the summer goes on.
AUGUST RATE HIKE OK AFTER HOUSING NUMBER?
As more and more evidence of the liquidity bubble becomes apparent...the FED will be given "permission" to raise rates in August...and probably for the rest of this year.
Unless of course Bernanke gets the courage to go 50 BP all at once...and quit coddling the speculators on Wall Street. But the chances of that happening are almost nil.
My hunch is that the hyper-liquidity will not be fully "drained" until FED funds goes to 6.5 or 7 percent... Simply put to get the hyper-liquidity out of the system requires an "over-shoot" because so much money is "tied up" in asset prices that simply MUST stop being funded by the FED...
This means a decline in stock prices and real estate prices is essential...because much of the "liquidity" is FICTIONAL...existing only in mere expectations of price levels that are no longer being funded with "easy money!!"
If the markets were to decline on their own...without the rate hikes behind them...then Bernanke COULD quit raising rates "early" and allow the economy to resume under "normalized" monetary policy... But as long as asset prices stay high...the FED's job will not be done...
Unless of course Bernanke gets the courage to go 50 BP all at once...and quit coddling the speculators on Wall Street. But the chances of that happening are almost nil.
My hunch is that the hyper-liquidity will not be fully "drained" until FED funds goes to 6.5 or 7 percent... Simply put to get the hyper-liquidity out of the system requires an "over-shoot" because so much money is "tied up" in asset prices that simply MUST stop being funded by the FED...
This means a decline in stock prices and real estate prices is essential...because much of the "liquidity" is FICTIONAL...existing only in mere expectations of price levels that are no longer being funded with "easy money!!"
If the markets were to decline on their own...without the rate hikes behind them...then Bernanke COULD quit raising rates "early" and allow the economy to resume under "normalized" monetary policy... But as long as asset prices stay high...the FED's job will not be done...
BUSTED PENSIONS BAD FOR DOLLAR! FORECLOSURE FEST LOOMS!
Considering the huge number of companies that are becoming "competitive" again by dumping their pension plans on the Federal Taxpayer...
And the coming debacle with home foreclosures which may take down Freddie and Fannie...
TELL ME AGAIN WHY I SHOULD DUMP MY GOLD STOCKS...
Oh,....Yeah Now I remember Bernanke is doing 25 BP soon...and then the Big Pause!
Oh Pleaseee! Now why was I supposed to "cut and run" on gold again...?
And the coming debacle with home foreclosures which may take down Freddie and Fannie...
TELL ME AGAIN WHY I SHOULD DUMP MY GOLD STOCKS...
Oh,....Yeah Now I remember Bernanke is doing 25 BP soon...and then the Big Pause!
Oh Pleaseee! Now why was I supposed to "cut and run" on gold again...?
Monday, June 19, 2006
FOR SALE SIGNS ABOUND IN MANY NEIGHBORHOODS.
Many subdivisions have For Sale signs popping up like mushrooms after a summer rain...
It seems that many people have finally decided to accept $350,000 for the house they paid $125,000 for ten years ago...
But alas, it may be a case of too much, too late in the cycle... After all, Everyone can't head for the exits at once.
Many landlords I know have given up trying to get tenants for their properties; and are just letting the property sit empty...
Or worse, they are doing long overdue "improvements" and upgrades presumeably to attract tenants---or more likely a buyer for the property...
I compare this to a person who can't find a job...so they go back to graduate school!
The amazing thing about the house bubble is not that it's deflating...but that it lasted so long.
It seems that many people have finally decided to accept $350,000 for the house they paid $125,000 for ten years ago...
But alas, it may be a case of too much, too late in the cycle... After all, Everyone can't head for the exits at once.
Many landlords I know have given up trying to get tenants for their properties; and are just letting the property sit empty...
Or worse, they are doing long overdue "improvements" and upgrades presumeably to attract tenants---or more likely a buyer for the property...
I compare this to a person who can't find a job...so they go back to graduate school!
The amazing thing about the house bubble is not that it's deflating...but that it lasted so long.
GOLD STOCKS: HOW LOW CAN THEY GO...?
Gold Stocks have become a "no brainer" short play...
That's the good news and the bad news in a nutshell. The big commodities selloff is helping the dollar and keeping gas cheaper than it would be otherwise.
But the market abhors a no brainer...on the short side or the long side.
Additionally, there is this notion that gold is weak because the dollar is strong...but the dollar is only as strong as Bernanke's willingness to raise rates.
BERNANKE SIMPLY CAN NOT EXPECT TO SUCCEED BY JAWBONING ALONE.
My hunch is that Gold stocks will revisit their 52 week lows...but then rebound strongly as the market realizes that Bernanke can't turn the dollar around solely based on interest rates and gold bashing...
The commodities selloff needs confirmation in the bond market and by the FED at the next meeting...a 6% Ten Year bond by the end of this year is "doable." And if that happens...? Stocks are "done" for quite some time.
That's the good news and the bad news in a nutshell. The big commodities selloff is helping the dollar and keeping gas cheaper than it would be otherwise.
But the market abhors a no brainer...on the short side or the long side.
Additionally, there is this notion that gold is weak because the dollar is strong...but the dollar is only as strong as Bernanke's willingness to raise rates.
BERNANKE SIMPLY CAN NOT EXPECT TO SUCCEED BY JAWBONING ALONE.
My hunch is that Gold stocks will revisit their 52 week lows...but then rebound strongly as the market realizes that Bernanke can't turn the dollar around solely based on interest rates and gold bashing...
The commodities selloff needs confirmation in the bond market and by the FED at the next meeting...a 6% Ten Year bond by the end of this year is "doable." And if that happens...? Stocks are "done" for quite some time.
CHINA'S VIEW OF US MILITARY POWER...
THIS op-ed from China has an interesting take on US military power in the world today...
And of course that is a topic of growing concern...both inside and outside the US.
If the US is not respected in the world...what good is its military power? Why can North Korea and Iran "dis" the US with impunity...? It all goes back to the issue of respect...not the number of "nukes" you have.
Now, more than ever, we are seeing a "Grand Alliance" against US power developing on a global scale. Increasingly the US stands alone with Israel and the UK against world opinion... And the UK may be problematic in the coming post-Blair Era...
It all comes from having an administration for eight long years...that is seen as incurious, distrusted and considered to be incompetent in global power centers.
And of course that is a topic of growing concern...both inside and outside the US.
If the US is not respected in the world...what good is its military power? Why can North Korea and Iran "dis" the US with impunity...? It all goes back to the issue of respect...not the number of "nukes" you have.
Now, more than ever, we are seeing a "Grand Alliance" against US power developing on a global scale. Increasingly the US stands alone with Israel and the UK against world opinion... And the UK may be problematic in the coming post-Blair Era...
It all comes from having an administration for eight long years...that is seen as incurious, distrusted and considered to be incompetent in global power centers.
BETTING THE DOLLAR ON THE COME OUT ROLL...
With all the joy concerning the dollar: supposedly because Bernanke is-- "going to raise rates"....the FED had better not disappoint!
In effect, the dollar is telling one story. The bond market is telling another... And stocks, as usual, are putting their own spin on things with constant talk of: "The Pause."
Meanwhile the FED and it's market shills are selling down commodities like there is no tomorrow.
But will higher rates "do the trick" for the dollar? After all merely raising rates does nothing for the twin deficits...and the unfunded, unpopular and unwinnable Neocon Wars. Isn't that in the mix somewhere?
And the mop up of Greenspans liquidity mess...will not be good for the economy or the markets.
So this notion that "it's all over" and IT'S TIME TO SELL YOUR GOLD ....could be a little bit of wishful thinking...
But it's wishfull thinking that the FED is backing and maybe even encouraging in the markets these days...
In effect, the dollar is telling one story. The bond market is telling another... And stocks, as usual, are putting their own spin on things with constant talk of: "The Pause."
Meanwhile the FED and it's market shills are selling down commodities like there is no tomorrow.
But will higher rates "do the trick" for the dollar? After all merely raising rates does nothing for the twin deficits...and the unfunded, unpopular and unwinnable Neocon Wars. Isn't that in the mix somewhere?
And the mop up of Greenspans liquidity mess...will not be good for the economy or the markets.
So this notion that "it's all over" and IT'S TIME TO SELL YOUR GOLD ....could be a little bit of wishful thinking...
But it's wishfull thinking that the FED is backing and maybe even encouraging in the markets these days...
RETAIL HIRING: THE CANARY IN THE MINE?
One key "data point" that has not been explored amid the hype and hyperbole about the expected FED "pause" is the PLUNGE IN RETAIL HIRING IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS.
Prior "jobs numbers" always had an even spread of hiring across nearly all sectors, except manufacturing, which has been in decline for years.
IN THE LAST FEW REPORTS HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN HUGE DECLINES IN HIRING IN WHAT WAS USUALLY STRONG PARTS OF THE JOBS MARKET...NAMELY RETAIL JOBS...
This could indicate that the American consumer IS pulling back in the face of higher rates, higher oil and gas, and lower home prices...
THE PLUNGE IN RETAIL HIRING COULD BE SEEN AS THE CANARY IN THE MINESHAFT WHEN WE LOOK BACK AT THIS PERIOD IN A FEW MONTHS OR YEARS...
Retailing was always the strong part of the economy...then the gas price shock hit...but consumers kept spending, or seemed to.... Now suddenly the retail sector is cutting jobs big time...even as Wall Street reports "booming consumer spending." Perhaps its all being spend on gasoline...? Because something doesn't add up here.
My sense is that the jobs market is going to be VERY PUNK for the rest of this year...as the higher gas, higher rates and lower housing prices "sink in" to the consumer mindset...
It's likely already happening....and certain numbers are becoming the Canaries in the mineshaft...LIKE THE RETAIL HIRING PLUNGE.
Prior "jobs numbers" always had an even spread of hiring across nearly all sectors, except manufacturing, which has been in decline for years.
IN THE LAST FEW REPORTS HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN HUGE DECLINES IN HIRING IN WHAT WAS USUALLY STRONG PARTS OF THE JOBS MARKET...NAMELY RETAIL JOBS...
This could indicate that the American consumer IS pulling back in the face of higher rates, higher oil and gas, and lower home prices...
THE PLUNGE IN RETAIL HIRING COULD BE SEEN AS THE CANARY IN THE MINESHAFT WHEN WE LOOK BACK AT THIS PERIOD IN A FEW MONTHS OR YEARS...
Retailing was always the strong part of the economy...then the gas price shock hit...but consumers kept spending, or seemed to.... Now suddenly the retail sector is cutting jobs big time...even as Wall Street reports "booming consumer spending." Perhaps its all being spend on gasoline...? Because something doesn't add up here.
My sense is that the jobs market is going to be VERY PUNK for the rest of this year...as the higher gas, higher rates and lower housing prices "sink in" to the consumer mindset...
It's likely already happening....and certain numbers are becoming the Canaries in the mineshaft...LIKE THE RETAIL HIRING PLUNGE.
OIL UP? TIME TO START BASHING GOLD AGAIN?
The gold bashing could be baaaaack....! Not surprisingly...its all the central banks have left besides raising rates to economy killing levels.
MARKET SEEKS JOY AMID BOND GLOOM...
Without a happy bond market a strong stock market can not continue... And all the FED yada yada is going against the bond market now.
Even as M&A activity heats up...with the corporate hyper-liquidity remaining from the Greenspan Daze. Clearly the Bubble Paradigm has left the building...and a 1970's style "nowhere fast" market is in place.
Still it's amazing to see all the happy faces in the Wall Street media...of course they are reflecting the current high liquidity situation...which is changing all around them. The boat may be sinking...but at least the water hasn't reached the "first class" compartments yet!
Down at the bond market level...the gloom is waist deep and people are putting on life jackets and heading for the exits...
And the rush to cash continues...as higher rate hopes boost the dollar...as well as demands to "cash out" of this game...
Big Picture Thinking is almost nowhere to be found now...as each player grabs "their part of the elephant."
And the Band Plays On...at least for a while.
Even as M&A activity heats up...with the corporate hyper-liquidity remaining from the Greenspan Daze. Clearly the Bubble Paradigm has left the building...and a 1970's style "nowhere fast" market is in place.
Still it's amazing to see all the happy faces in the Wall Street media...of course they are reflecting the current high liquidity situation...which is changing all around them. The boat may be sinking...but at least the water hasn't reached the "first class" compartments yet!
Down at the bond market level...the gloom is waist deep and people are putting on life jackets and heading for the exits...
And the rush to cash continues...as higher rate hopes boost the dollar...as well as demands to "cash out" of this game...
Big Picture Thinking is almost nowhere to be found now...as each player grabs "their part of the elephant."
And the Band Plays On...at least for a while.
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