No kidding...? WORTH READING HERE FOR FREE.
The real punch in the stomach will come if Bernanke has to raise rates again in August... The July hike is "baked in"...but there is some doubt about the August rate boost.
If gold and oil stay near 600 and 70 respectively, the FED may have no choice... Additionally, the "delayed reaction" of near $3 gas is starting to leak into the real economy in higher prices...
Discounting Iran, North Korea and the Hurricane season...a pause might happen.
But frankly, I think it's too early to talk about pausing the rate hikes... The liquidity is still excessive from the Greenspan years...
A pause at 6% on FED funds for a month or two seems appropriate given the deficits and the war...but then the reaction of the markets to the dollar and bond will need to be closely watched.
Amid last week's "relief rally" the bond market was not a happy camper... at the end of the day the bond market is really more important that stocks or real estate prices.
Watch for more talk about bonds and less about stocks in the coming weeks.
