Saturday, June 24, 2006

BERNANKE WILL GO TO 7%...

The chorus of protest from the Wall Street shills is continuing apace....

But, what they are missing is that "inflation" in this case simply means a "weak dollar."

No one protested when asset prices were inflating wildly in the 90's under Greenspan's Bubblenomics... But now that very same hyper-liquidity that "funded" the 90's is sloshing over into the forsaken commodities markets.

Did anyone think it wouldn't...!

Add the unfunded, unwinnable, unpopular and probably unjust wars...and you have 1968 Redux...

AND IF 1968 COMES...CAN 1971 BE FAR BEHIND??

My hunch is that rates will have to keep going up to "de-fund" the asset bubbles of the Greenspan Daze... And that means BOTH housing and stocks. In the meantime gold, oil and other hard commodities ignored during the 90's will soar...

Or call it "playing catch up" to the other asset prices that experienced a MOONSHOT during the asset bubbles of the Greenspan Era.

THE SHRILL SCREAMS WILL ONLY GET LOUDER AS THE SUMMER GOES ON... THE VERY BEST THAT CAN BE HOPED FOR IS "STABILITY"...NO SUDDEN INCREASES...CAUSED BY "EVENTS" BEYOND OUR CONTROL.

Given the fundamental and structural problems of the US economy...a 7% FED funds seems reasonable. But any unforseen disasters like a hedge fund collapse or trouble at FANNIE or FREDDIE because of the coming "Foreclosure Fest" could put the dollar out of the FEDs control...and a devaluation could be swift, sudden and unpleasant for everyone and everything denominated in dollars.