Monday, June 26, 2006

MERGER ACTIVITY SHOWS LIQUIDITY STILL EXCESSIVE

The large number of Mergers lately shows that liquidity is still excessive in the US financial system....

Thus giving Bernanke permission to keep raising rates into the indefinite future.

M&A is not really "growth"...it is a substitute for growth found at the end of a boom...when real investments and business activity are hard to find or non-existent. Shades of the conglomerates of the late 60's!

M&A is bad for jobs....which are usually eliminated in quantity by the firms involved.

And most mergers "don't work out"...so sooner or later they have to be unwound, spun off, or otherwise deleveraged.

Any rallies this week will be short lived...and the yada yada after this FED meeting could quickly turn gloomy... if there is the prospect of ANOTHER RATE HIKE at the next meeting...and it is highly unlikely that the FED statement will give the speculators the "language" they are looking for.

Which considering the shrill nature of the media touts...WOULD BE AN APOLOGY AND ADMISSION OF GUILT BY BERNANKE!

MORE HIKES COMING...

AND 6% CD's AT YOUR LOCAL BANK BY THE END OF THE YEAR...? CASH IS STILL KING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT