One key "data point" that has not been explored amid the hype and hyperbole about the expected FED "pause" is the PLUNGE IN RETAIL HIRING IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS.
Prior "jobs numbers" always had an even spread of hiring across nearly all sectors, except manufacturing, which has been in decline for years.
IN THE LAST FEW REPORTS HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN HUGE DECLINES IN HIRING IN WHAT WAS USUALLY STRONG PARTS OF THE JOBS MARKET...NAMELY RETAIL JOBS...
This could indicate that the American consumer IS pulling back in the face of higher rates, higher oil and gas, and lower home prices...
THE PLUNGE IN RETAIL HIRING COULD BE SEEN AS THE CANARY IN THE MINESHAFT WHEN WE LOOK BACK AT THIS PERIOD IN A FEW MONTHS OR YEARS...
Retailing was always the strong part of the economy...then the gas price shock hit...but consumers kept spending, or seemed to.... Now suddenly the retail sector is cutting jobs big time...even as Wall Street reports "booming consumer spending." Perhaps its all being spend on gasoline...? Because something doesn't add up here.
My sense is that the jobs market is going to be VERY PUNK for the rest of this year...as the higher gas, higher rates and lower housing prices "sink in" to the consumer mindset...
It's likely already happening....and certain numbers are becoming the Canaries in the mineshaft...LIKE THE RETAIL HIRING PLUNGE.
