This isn't the first JOB-LESS RECOVERY.
We had one in the early 90's, and yes, back then I was among the
gloom and doomers who said:
THIS IS THE BIG ONE! JOBS WILL NEVER COME BACK!
Then came the amazing computer boom, and the Internet WONDER YEARS,
and all was seemingly well.
The Nervous Nellies were proven wrong, again.
BUT TODAY, IT BEHOOVES THOSE WHO EXPECT JOBS TO RETURN, DEUS EX
MACHINA, YET AGAIN, TO AT LEAST, TELL US WHERE THESE JOBS WILL
COME FROM. WE NEED AT LEAST A "THEORY."
Back in the 1990's, new computers, software, Y2K, sundry upgrades of
various kinds, and finally the Internet Bubble created A MAGIC MOMENT
for the US economy.
It was really a once in a lifetime experience.
What with the Internet and the computer and all;
It was all happening at once,....and those barefoot boy billionaires
showing their toes on national magazine covers.
It was great!
BUT, WILL SOMETHING LIKE THAT HAPPEN AGAIN? IS IT POSSBILE?
CAN WE HOPE FOR A "TWICE IN A LIFETIME" JOBS AND ECONOMIC MIRACLE?
PLEASE ADMIT, THAT 1994 AND 2004 ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT ERAS.
Here's the problem: we are really truly ON THE EDGE HERE.
AND, FAILURE NOW IS SIMPLY NOT AN OPTION.......
If the jobs miracle does not occur, THIS TIME, then what?
All of the economic dials are in the "red zone" now.
Disequilibriums (disequilibria, for Latin speakers) ABOUND!
These disequilibria are so serious that if a failure occurs the
consequences could be catastrophic.
Indeed, Greenspan, this week, was talking about the SYSTEMIC RISK
caused by Fanny and Freddie.
WHEN THE CENTRAL BANK STARTS SERIOUSLY TALKING ABOUT SYSTEMIC RISK!
REASONABLE PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE NOTICE.
Many Americans seem to think that they are living in a Hollywood
movie.
If things get tough: CALL IN THE TERMINATOR!
WELL, THIS IS NOT A MOVIE! BAD THINGS CAN HAPPEN.
VERY, VERY BAD THINGS CAN HAPPEN.
And, quite frankly, I have doubts that the current leadership is up
to the serious tasks ahead.
MAYBE US "NERVOUS NELLIES" WILL BE WRONG AGAIN!
LET'S HOPE SO.........
BUT, JUST MAYBE, WE SHOULD BE THINKING, AT LEAST A BIT, ABOUT "PLAN
B."
YOU KNOW, JUST IN CASE?
