The Conference Boards LEI were reported higher, but are they really telling us anything?
Consider:
The improvment was mostly in CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS AND STOCK PRICES.
But, the downward indicators are MORE FUNDAMENTAL:
BUILDING PERMITS DOWN!
INTEREST RATES SPREADS GETTING WORSE!
MANUFACTUING ORDERS DOWN!
MONEY SUPPLY DOWN!
It's going to take more that CONSUMER HOPE and WALL STREET HYPE to turn this economy around in a real and convincing manner.
AT A MORE FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL, I LOOK AT THE LEI THIS MONTH AS A NEGATIVE FOR THE ECONOMY LONGER TERM!
http://www.tcb-indicators.org/us/LatestReleases/
