It would take some major wishful thinking to deny that the markets
are heading for a 1987 type event.
The bond market has ALREADY priced in four or five quarter point rate
hikes by the Fed! Even though Greenspan has YET to produce His FIRST
rate hike!
So, with the consumer weakening, and with $2+ gas prices becoming a
free VOTE FOR KERRY lawn sign in every neighborhood;
Greenspan is likely to be "conflicted" about ANY rate hike this year.
Anyway;
I'm sticken to my story that Greenspan will never raise rates; but I
do respect Mr Market's considered opinion on this matter.
MY SENSE IS THAT ALL OF THE CONSUMER DATA FOR THIS SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL WILL BE DOWN! AND PERHAPS DOWN BIG.
I ALSO FEEL THAT THE "JOBS MIRACLE" WILL PETER OUT, OR EVEN BE FOUND
TO HAVE BEEN FAKED! Especially when all those "lawn and garden" jobs
are eliminated in the late summer.
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ARE LAYING OFF LIKE MAD.
AND I DOUBT THAT MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS ARE "POURING IN" ANYMORE.
ANY WIND-D0WN IN IRAQ COULD ALSO CAUSE ARE REVERSAL OF FORTUNES IN
HIRING.
Lastly, if the Fed does hike it must do so knowing that MUCH of this
recovery was caused by the PARADOX OF ONE PERCENT RATES!
Give mom and pop a decent bank CD rate, and they'll be out of "Ask
Jeeves" in a New York minute!
And, lest we forget, corporations have been given back their
funny "special currency" because of the one percent solution, and
downsizing;
NOT BECAUSE REAL TOP LINE GROWTH HAS BEEN GOING GANG BUSTERS! ALAS, PRO-FORMA LIVES!
In short, any series of rate hikes this year could quickly derail the
so-called "recovery," and put Greenspan right back into "SAVE THE
BUBBLE" MODE!
Then, foreigners might decide to avoid the US until we get an
administration in Washington that is NOT afraid to read the morning
papers!
BUT, WITH CHINA GROWING A NEW MIDDLE CLASS AT OUR EXPENSE!
AND, THE MIDDLE EAST DESTABILZIED BY DUBYA, RUMMY & THE NEOCONS!
THE WORST OF BOTH WORLD'S LOOMS!
STAGNATION AND INFLATION! STAGFLATION!
SO, IS IT TIME TO RUSH BACK INTO REITS, PREFERREDS, AND CONVERTS AND
ALL THAT STUFF THAT WAS PART OF THE RECENT 800+ "NEW LOWS" LIST?
I DON'T THINK SO!
These "income plays" have a nasty habit of lagging during rallies but
paticipating FULLY during plunges!
INCOME PLAYS ARE ALMOST LIKE GOLD STOCKS! IT TAKES A LOT OF PAIN,
BEFORE YOU SEE ANY GAIN! AND THE WHOLE WORLD IS OUT TO GET YOU WHEN
YOU OWN THESE "DON'T PASS" INVESTMENTS!
I'm going 80% in cash for the rest of this year. And If I "miss
something?" Don't worry.
Wall Street "buying opportunities" are like the Broadway Bus!
There's another one every five minutes!
Postscript: If you don't have a "Broadway Bus" in your area?
Read: State Street, Washington Street, Main Street, Chruch Street, 3d
Street, High Street, whatever.
THE POINT IS, WHAT WILL YOU REALLY MISS IF YOU SELL IN MAY AND GO
AWAY?
THIS YEAR? PROBABLY NOT MUCH! AND THE DOWN SIDE? DON'T EVEN THINK
ABOUT IT!
AHHH....THE ZEN OF CASH! THAT INCREDIBLE FEELING OF "ONENESS!"
A LIFE WITHOUT THE "DUALITY" OF A BROKERAGE COMMISSION STANDING
BETWEEN YOU AND YOUR MONEY!
SWEET DREAMS....ZZZZZZZZ.
AND CAREFREE MORNINGS! (Reading the Sports Section for a change)
