Well, the BIG DAY for Iraq was yesterday; not June 30!
Very likely, NOTHING will change in Iraq on July 1. The supposed
Big Day for Dubya and the occupation.
But the new government is essentially a powerless "legal fiction" in
a Sea of Real Islamic Chaos.
If the American Army withdraws to the oil fields, the cities will
revert to lawlessness. The "new government" will likely need
a "green zone," just like the occupation did. I doubt that any
member of the new government would go into public places anywhere in
Iraq.
And does anyone really believe that Americans are going to give guns
and training to the "New Iraqi Army?" That last time we tried that
they all went AWOL, and TOOK OUR GUNS WITH THEM!
Next Americans will be fighting the "New Iraqi Army" for the oil
fields of Iraq! Talk about "Wolfie's Last Stand!"
INDEED, THE JIHADI AND THE SADRITES COULD START FORMING A "SHADOW
GOVERNMENT" AFTER JULY 1!! Would'nt that be interesting?
But this notion that the Iraqi people will now "accept" the "CIA Guy"
over the "Pentagon Guy" is a little bit nutty.
Worse yet, IF anyone in the new government goes "native" and starts
up with the ever popular anti-American rethoric?
It's possible that the US military will have to OVER-THROW THE NEW
GOVERNMENT!
WOULD'NT THAT BE SOMETHING! That would seal it up good.
AND, HELP FROM NATO? FORGET ABOUT IT.
The notion that the Jihadi will be stopped from flocking into
Iraq by the "new government" is equally problematic.
ESSENTIALLY, JULY 1 WILL BE VERY MUCH LIKE JUNE 30 IN IRAQ.
THE SHIA WILL BE IN REVOLT IN SADR CITY.
THE TALIBAN-LITE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF FALLUJHA.
AND BAGHDAD WILL BE A HOT BED OF ANTI AMERICAN AND ANTI WESTERN
VIOLENCE.
The only hope is that the Anti-Western feeling doesn't spread like
wild fire throughout the Middle East OVER THIS LONG LONG HOT SUMMER
IN THE OIL FIELDS OF ARABY.
Seperately, the ability of the markets to ignore oil prices and go
into DISTRIBUTION MODE is interesting.
DISTRIBUTION IS WHEN THE SMART MONEY STARTS SELLING TO THE SUCKERS,IF
YOU DON'T KNOW THE MEANING OF THAT "TERM OF ART" ON WALL STREET
