The Elections in Iraq are being billed by the administration as yet another HOSANNA MOMENT.
So the elections will join the Top Gun Speech and the Capture of Saddam as an event where we "turn the counters back to zero" with regard to US combat deaths.
How many Americans were killed "after the speech," or "after the capture of Saddam?" Remember? And soon, "after the elections!"
IRAQ HAS TWO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOW:
1. THE OCCUPATION IS VERY VERY UNPOPULAR WITH IRAQI PEOPLE OF ALL SORTS! INDEED, IT SOMETIMES SEEMS THAT THE ONLY THING KEEPING SHIA AND SUNNI FROM KILLING EACH OTHER IS THEIR MUTUAL HATRED OF THE OCCUPATION, AND THE AMERICAN TROOPS AND THEIR HAM-FISTED TACTICS.
YOU MIGHT SAY THAT JUST KILLING AMERICANS SEEMS THE BETTER CHOICE FOR MOST IRAQIS THESE DAYS!
2. IRAQ IS INHERENTLY A VERY, VERY UNSTABLE PLACE ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL. THANK CHURCHILL AND BRITISH IMPERIALISTS FOR THAT!
THE KURDS ARE ALREADY DE FACTO INDEPENTANT, AND THEY AIN'T GOING BACK, EXCEPT MAYBE FOR SOME OF THE OIL MONEY.
THE SHIA ALREADY "DEFACTO" RUN THE SOUTH OF IRAQ, AND THAT WON'T CHANGE ANYTIME SOON EITHER--ELECTIONS OR NOT. AND YES, THERE WILL BE AN "IRANIAN INFULENCE" IN THAT REGION NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS.
IF THE US TROOPS LEFT TOMORROW, IRAQ WOULD SIMPLY DIVIDE UP INTO THREE PARTS.
THE VERY STABLE NORTH AND SOUTH, THE SO CALLED "GOOD NEWS" PARTS ON WHICH THE NEOCONS WISH "MORE PRESS" WOULD BE GIVEN.
AND, THE UNSTABLE, BUT IMPORTANT, "NATIONAL" CENTER WERE THERE IS A MIX OF GROUPS, ALL MORE OR LESS HOSTILE TO EACH OTHER. THE OLD IRAQ OF SADDAM WAS ESSENTIALLY RULED FROM THE "NATIONAL CENTER."
MORE IMPORTANTLY, NO SIDE HAS AN ARMY OR POLICE FORCE CAPABLE OF CONTROLLING ALL OF THE OTHERS. NOT THE KURDS OR THE SHIA OR THE SUNNI.
YET, NO SIDE WANTS TO BE SEEN AS THE PUPPETS OF THEIR US OCCUPIERS. THAT WOULD BE VERY INFLAMATORY AMONG IRAQIS AND ISLAMISTS ALL OVER THE WORLD--WHO HATE US POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
If the Shia "government," after the elections, "uses" American Troops to intimidate Sunnis, the current low grade civil war could get a lot hotter.
REMEMBER, THE US OCCUPATION IS COMPLETELY RADIOACTIVE AMONG ALL PEOPLES IN IRAQ! (EXCEPT FOR THOSE PITIFUL EXILE GROUPS SADDLY TRAPPED INSIDE THE GREEN ZONE.)
IT'S VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE SHIA WILL NOT EMBRACE THE US OCCUAPTION AFTER THE ELECTION; AND WILL DEMAND THAT COALITION FORCES LEAVE. ASAP.
BECAUSE THE MORE THEY "USE" THE AMERICANS, THE MORE THEY LOSE LEGITIMACY. AND APPEAR TO BE TOOLS OF A "ZIONIST OCCUPATION!"
PERHAPS THE NEW SHIA "GOVERNMENT" COULD DEAL WITH THE INSURGENCY IN SUNNI AREAS BY NEGOTIATION WITH MODERATES AMONG THE SUNNIS.
BUT ONLY AFTER THE US FORCES ARE OUT OF THE COUNTRY!
IN SHORT, FOR BETTER OR WORSE, THE OCCUPATION COULD BE THE REAL PROBLEM, NOT THE "INSURGENCY!"
IF THE NEW "ELECTED" SHIA GOVERNMENT THANKS THE US PRIVATELY;
AND THEN ASKS BUSH AND THE NEOCONS TO GET THE HELL OUT OF IRAQ NOW----WE COULD SEE A PEACE IN IRAQ BY THIS SUMMER!
THE SHIA COULD THEN "HANDLE" THE RADICAL NUTCASES ON ALL SIDES, "IN HOUSE" AS IT WERE, WITHOUT THE "HELP" OF THE "AMERICAN ZIONISTS" AND OCCUPIERS.
IN SHORT, THERE IS AN EASY SOLUTION TO THE IRAQ PROBLEM EVEN NOW!
JUST LEAVE AND DECLARE VICTORY!
SADDAM IS GONE! WE WON! THE NEOCONS WERE RIGHT! ETC! ETC! ETC!
Postscript: Of course Sharon won't be too happy about that doubtful outcome. But, does the Israeli Likud decide US foreign policy now?
Hmmm... maybe you best not answer that question!
And suprise! The Mullahs in Iran now join Bush and the Neocons in saying the elections must be held on time!! FINALLY, COOPERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST!
