The best that most pundits seem to be saying about 2005 is that it won't be a CRASH YEAR.
And for that they expect people to be thankful?
Well, maybe,......but 2005 is likely to be a year when almost everything will fall---"jelly side down."
Greenspan is on auto-pilot with the rate hikes.
If he stops for even one month the dollar will be clobbered. The dollar was clobbered anyway last year when rates were rising! Greenspan simply can't stop now.
The middle east is not getting better, it's getting worse.
The Iraqi elections will likely come and go with NO CHANGE in the levels of violence. It's possible that the Shia will try to use the US temporarily to gain advantage, but the Sunnis just won't give up.
The only thing stopping Civil War in Iraq now is that BOTH SIDES HATE THE AMERICANS MORE THAN THEY HATE EACH OTHER! NOW, IF THAT CAN BE SPUN INTO A "POSITIVE" FOR THE US, THEN I'M WRONG ON IRAQ!
And, more ominous, there are now running gun battles with insurgents in Saudi Arabia. That's were the REAL OIL is remember? If "something bad happens" in Saudi Arabia ALL BETS ARE OFF FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR.
Furthermore there is Moochie Musareff in Pakistan to worry about. If Osama "gets lucky" one time in Pakistan, IT'S BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FOR THE NEOCONS! Pakistan is literally the KEYSTONE and the LYNCH PIN for the US in the middle east! Not the "puppet show" in Baghdad or Kabul.
Finally there is absolutely no evidence that JOBS ARE COMING BACK in the US.
Why should they! Corporations used the G-Man's cheap money to put the jobs in India and China.....why bring them back now? It doesn't make sense.
Perhaps the US can muster some low wage low skill job growth, but all the high wage jobs are going to foreigners overseas, OR WORSE TO FOREIGNERS COMING TO AMERICA ON GREEN CARDS AND WORK PERMITS!
SORRY BUBBA, YOU LOSE.
LET'S JUST SAY I WOULD HATE TO BE IN WALMARTS SHOES RIGHT NOW.
The new Republican Kongress could take us further into the Land of Monetary Oz WITH ALMOST EVERY PROPOSAL THEY MAKE.
FORTUANTELY, NO ONE IN OR OUT OF THE US LISTENS TO WHAT KONGRESS SAYS ANYMORE! Thank God for small favors!
THE LATER HALF OF 2004 SEEMED LIKE IT WAS ALL MOMENTUM RALLY, BASED ON THE REPUBLICAN VICTORY EUPHORIA IN WASHINGTON AND WALL STREET.
NOW ALAS, IN 2005, WE ARE STUCK WITH THAT OLD REPUBLICAN NEMISIS YET AGAIN:
THE DREADED "MORNING AFTER!"
SO SELLING STOCKS IN JANUARY ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A TOTAL NO BRAINER.
Still, the "usual suspects" could try to rescue the situation.
SO, LOOK FOR LOTS OF BIG "MYSTERIOUS" GOLD AND OIL SELL OFFS.
THESE SUPPOSEDLY "BOOST THE DOLLAR" AND MAKE IT LESS LIKELY THAT THE G-MAN WILL HAVE TO RAISE RATES "JUST" TO PROTECT THE DOLLAR.
BUT, THESE GOLD AND OIL SELL OFFS RELY ON A NEUTRAL NEWS ENVIRONMENT. IF THE GEO-POLITICAL CRAP IS HITTING THE FAN SOMEWHERE, IT WON'T WORK.
Then there's always the ever popular "INTEL UPGRADE!" Surprise! Surprise! That's usually good for a 50 point boost that lasts about 4 hours.
WALL STREET IS GOING TO BE SPINNING LIKE WHIRLING DERVISHES BEFORE THIS YEAR IS OUT!
Stay tuned..........................
