THE ENTIRE WORLD SEEMS TO BE PADDLING WITH ONE OAR.....
Everything is going nowhere fast.....
But the probable direction of the next trend is clear.....DOWN.
Consider:
1. Oil is up and it's going to stay up....what with the new "middle class" in China and India that have "taken our jobs." And we ain't gonna quit driving either......
2. Interest Rates are going up...Greenspan is slowly backing away from the insane 1% Abyss...but at a "measured pace," and the US Trade and Budget deficits (the "twins") are more or less out of control, and they are going to stay that way...until...??
3. The War in Iraq is lost....the only question is when will Washington realize it and how much will it all cost.
4. The Housing Bubble will burst....NO, not all at once but once the trend starts it will take an huge stimulus out of the US economy which has been "bubble dependent" for nearly a decade.
5. The US will continue to lose respect in the world as long as Dubya is in the White House....only after 2008 will there be any chance of a return to rational policies...and that's 3.4 long years away.
And on the plus side:
Never under estimate Wall Streets ability to work itself into a lather over something...HYPE AND HOPE is what Wall Street is all about...but it's a Hell of a way to run the entire NATION.....
Clearly the current situation is waiting for SOME EVENT to instantly snap it into THE "rational position" on WHAT COMES NEXT..... That can take a while...but it will happen sooner or later. Because Never is not a option.
