This simply can not go on...
At some point Dubya is going to have to let the chips fall where they may in Iraq. The notion of a pro-US pro-Israel government in Baghdad is simply not realistic.
But what did the Neocons expect?
Now Iran is confident enough to call for the total destruction of Israel...and why not? The Neocons handed the south of Iraq to Iran on a silver platter... Dubya's actions in Iraq are making Israel LESS SECURE by the month!
Monday, October 31, 2005
DEPRESSED CONSUMERS WENT SHOPPING?
How else can you explain these numbers...? Of course, Government spending has been going through the roof. And spending for gas at the pump has been high too!
Clearly Bernanke now has permission to prove his "inflation fighting" skills well into 2006! My hunch is that the rate hikes can't stop until the ten year bond is at 7%... And that could take all of 2006 to achieve!
Clearly Bernanke now has permission to prove his "inflation fighting" skills well into 2006! My hunch is that the rate hikes can't stop until the ten year bond is at 7%... And that could take all of 2006 to achieve!
THE AMAZING ABORTION DEBATE...
For the level of hype about Abortion Rights
You'd think that Abortion was a bread and butter issue for ALL Americans...Everyday! But consider:
Teenage pregnacy is at an all time record low...as the younger generation is stuck in low wage jobs.
Fertility rates for most native born American women are declining...mainly due to economic factors; like the need to work to "support" husbands or boy friends who can't earn a "living wage."
And in the post-AIDs world, wild one night stands are risky business...thus encouraging abstinance in many people.
And most "abortion decision" are made on economic grounds not moral grounds... Many people just can't afford to have kids. And that problem is getting worse under Republican looting of the economy.
With cuts in Medicaide for the young working poor, (think Walmart workers), the Republican hypocrites have got themselves into the position of saying:
THE RIGHT TO LIFE BEGINS AT CONCEPTION...BUT ENDS AT BIRTH!
Indeed, the hypocrite-in cheifs' brother, Jeb of Florida, was for Terry Shiavo's "right to life" but now wants to cut back on Medicaide for the poor in Florida, which was the very thing "keeping Terry alive!"
Clearly, the right to life implies the ABILITY TO LIVE... And under Republicans the ability of most working families to support themselves AND THEIR KIDS has declined markedly.
Yet somehow the religious right doesn't see this as a problem.
You'd think that Abortion was a bread and butter issue for ALL Americans...Everyday! But consider:
Teenage pregnacy is at an all time record low...as the younger generation is stuck in low wage jobs.
Fertility rates for most native born American women are declining...mainly due to economic factors; like the need to work to "support" husbands or boy friends who can't earn a "living wage."
And in the post-AIDs world, wild one night stands are risky business...thus encouraging abstinance in many people.
And most "abortion decision" are made on economic grounds not moral grounds... Many people just can't afford to have kids. And that problem is getting worse under Republican looting of the economy.
With cuts in Medicaide for the young working poor, (think Walmart workers), the Republican hypocrites have got themselves into the position of saying:
THE RIGHT TO LIFE BEGINS AT CONCEPTION...BUT ENDS AT BIRTH!
Indeed, the hypocrite-in cheifs' brother, Jeb of Florida, was for Terry Shiavo's "right to life" but now wants to cut back on Medicaide for the poor in Florida, which was the very thing "keeping Terry alive!"
Clearly, the right to life implies the ABILITY TO LIVE... And under Republicans the ability of most working families to support themselves AND THEIR KIDS has declined markedly.
Yet somehow the religious right doesn't see this as a problem.
ROSA PARKS....
Some people become famous by being in the right place at the right time... Rosa Parks became famous for being in the wrong place at the right time...
BONDS DOWN, DOLLAR UP...?
The worse the US economy gets because of inflation...the higher the dollar goes! Right?
But why would anyone want to own the currency of a punk economy...?
The thinking is that if the economy is bad...the Fed will quit raising rates...and thus, stocks will rise; and the demand for the dollar will quickly follow...? Right? Or, something like that?
The Street has a way of working itself into a lather about various and often conflicting data...
Or, is it that the Fed will continue raising rates, and bonds will therefore fall, but demand for the dollar will "increase" because investors "want" the high yeild that the dollar now gives...
What ever! There is a "reason to rally" in every data point!
Still, I think it is assured that Dow 10,200 and Dow 10,600 are the outside limits for this market. In effect, the Speculators can to anything they want on any trading day,...so long as they don't violate this tight range.
But in this rising rate environment, with consumers getting punker by the minute...the markets will have to streach for every "data point" on which to base a rally...but fear not, they are up to the job!
Because, there are always perennial "brokerage upgrades" which translate into: "We have a lot of this stock to distribute, so buy it from us now!"
And today, M&A is the Queen for a Day... Indeed many companies still have their "unique currency" ...ie over-bloated, multiple expanded shares...and many of these companies are going to strike while they can--after all, 2006 will not be a good year for business in the US; and "spend it while you got it" is the way to go...
TODAY, THE MARKET MASTERS SEEM TO HAVE REGAINED CONTROL OF "THE FLOAT" AND A MARKET THAT IS BREATHLESSLY GOING NOWHERE IS BOUND TO CONTINUE...AND TOMORROW? Stay tuned....
The G-Man will do what the G-Man always does...raise by 25 "measured" BPs gauranteed! How sad that they have to be so carefull about "upsetting the markets" now....
...But alas, in American today;
SPECULTIVE FLOATATIONS OF PAPER ASSETS ARE ALL WE HAVE LEFT!
But why would anyone want to own the currency of a punk economy...?
The thinking is that if the economy is bad...the Fed will quit raising rates...and thus, stocks will rise; and the demand for the dollar will quickly follow...? Right? Or, something like that?
The Street has a way of working itself into a lather about various and often conflicting data...
Or, is it that the Fed will continue raising rates, and bonds will therefore fall, but demand for the dollar will "increase" because investors "want" the high yeild that the dollar now gives...
What ever! There is a "reason to rally" in every data point!
Still, I think it is assured that Dow 10,200 and Dow 10,600 are the outside limits for this market. In effect, the Speculators can to anything they want on any trading day,...so long as they don't violate this tight range.
But in this rising rate environment, with consumers getting punker by the minute...the markets will have to streach for every "data point" on which to base a rally...but fear not, they are up to the job!
Because, there are always perennial "brokerage upgrades" which translate into: "We have a lot of this stock to distribute, so buy it from us now!"
And today, M&A is the Queen for a Day... Indeed many companies still have their "unique currency" ...ie over-bloated, multiple expanded shares...and many of these companies are going to strike while they can--after all, 2006 will not be a good year for business in the US; and "spend it while you got it" is the way to go...
TODAY, THE MARKET MASTERS SEEM TO HAVE REGAINED CONTROL OF "THE FLOAT" AND A MARKET THAT IS BREATHLESSLY GOING NOWHERE IS BOUND TO CONTINUE...AND TOMORROW? Stay tuned....
The G-Man will do what the G-Man always does...raise by 25 "measured" BPs gauranteed! How sad that they have to be so carefull about "upsetting the markets" now....
...But alas, in American today;
SPECULTIVE FLOATATIONS OF PAPER ASSETS ARE ALL WE HAVE LEFT!
Saturday, October 29, 2005
SPRING FORWARD AND FALL BACK...
Just do it now...and get it over with. Why wait till 2AM...?
Of course, today is the only day where "last call" at the bars is an hour later...
Cheers!
Of course, today is the only day where "last call" at the bars is an hour later...
THOSE WACKY, WACKY MARKETS...
Yeah Baby. Buy Dow 10,250 and sell Dow 10,450! It's a NO BRAINER!
But alas, Mr Market abhors a No Brainers... This is getting way too predictable! And remember the markets are designed so the retail investors always loses money.
Still the "powers that be" have hitched our national economy to the speculation on Wall Street...and any break below 10,000 could be troublesome for our "world view."
So it's the irresistable force verus the ummoveable object yet again...
Perhaps, the macro thinkers in the bond market will step in and give us some guidance about: WHAT COMES NEXT?
Perhaps, higher rates and lower multiples on stocks? That would be very "macro" indeed.
But alas, Mr Market abhors a No Brainers... This is getting way too predictable! And remember the markets are designed so the retail investors always loses money.
Still the "powers that be" have hitched our national economy to the speculation on Wall Street...and any break below 10,000 could be troublesome for our "world view."
So it's the irresistable force verus the ummoveable object yet again...
Perhaps, the macro thinkers in the bond market will step in and give us some guidance about: WHAT COMES NEXT?
Perhaps, higher rates and lower multiples on stocks? That would be very "macro" indeed.
IS CHENEY NEXT...?
The notion that Scooter Libby was acting as a free agent in the CIA outing scandel is a little bit naive...
Clearly, the indictment of Libby at least implies knowledge, or consent, by Cheney for whom Libby was acting as "agent" at most, if not all times.
This case will keep the Iraq Fiasco on the front pages of American papers until at least the 2006 elections... And very likely Iraq itself will provide plenty for the electorate to be concerned about...indeed, the death rate for Soldiers is rising daily now.
As for those "permanent" tax cuts for the rich...? Fuggetabotit. It ain't gonna happen...especially with a new guy at the FED who has to estabilish himself with global central banks; who are already getting antsy about holding US paper!
Worse yet, Dubya is being asked by the Republican radical right to "pick a fight" with the American people on "social issues" --which AMAZINGLY are somehow linked to the Supreme Court nowadays...Go Figure.
For example, the religious right wants to stop judicial "legislation" .... OK?
So, when the voters in Oregon approved "assisted suicide;" the religious right now wants the US Supreme Court to step in and CANCEL THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE OF OREGON EXPRESSED AT THE BALLOT BOX!
Talk about legislating from the bench!
But fear not, hypocrisy is the very life blood of all religious movements; and the Republican right is no exception!
If the religious right had their way...women would be pregnant and in the kitchen and gays would be back in the closet-ASAP. Especially in the South...where bizarro laws would quickly be passed that make Jim Crow look like a Sunday walk in a "segregated" park...
Clearly, Dubya could "distract" the public with a " big fight" about the Supreme Court...
And perhaps, right now, distraction and blue smoke and mirrors is all that's left of Dubya's so-called "political capital"...
It's going to be a long long three more years.
Clearly, the indictment of Libby at least implies knowledge, or consent, by Cheney for whom Libby was acting as "agent" at most, if not all times.
This case will keep the Iraq Fiasco on the front pages of American papers until at least the 2006 elections... And very likely Iraq itself will provide plenty for the electorate to be concerned about...indeed, the death rate for Soldiers is rising daily now.
As for those "permanent" tax cuts for the rich...? Fuggetabotit. It ain't gonna happen...especially with a new guy at the FED who has to estabilish himself with global central banks; who are already getting antsy about holding US paper!
Worse yet, Dubya is being asked by the Republican radical right to "pick a fight" with the American people on "social issues" --which AMAZINGLY are somehow linked to the Supreme Court nowadays...Go Figure.
For example, the religious right wants to stop judicial "legislation" .... OK?
So, when the voters in Oregon approved "assisted suicide;" the religious right now wants the US Supreme Court to step in and CANCEL THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE OF OREGON EXPRESSED AT THE BALLOT BOX!
Talk about legislating from the bench!
But fear not, hypocrisy is the very life blood of all religious movements; and the Republican right is no exception!
If the religious right had their way...women would be pregnant and in the kitchen and gays would be back in the closet-ASAP. Especially in the South...where bizarro laws would quickly be passed that make Jim Crow look like a Sunday walk in a "segregated" park...
Clearly, Dubya could "distract" the public with a " big fight" about the Supreme Court...
And perhaps, right now, distraction and blue smoke and mirrors is all that's left of Dubya's so-called "political capital"...
It's going to be a long long three more years.
Friday, October 28, 2005
BUY DOW 10,200 MAGIC CONTINUES....
The notion that a Dow in the 10,200s is a BUY SIGNAL continues today;
...despite the fact that bonds are plunging and the new GDP numbers almost gaurantee much much higher rates next year...
But the Street only reacts to the immediate number...there is no "long term" thinking allowed on Wall Street these days. Yes, the run up today will reverse next week...but the sole purpose of the markets nowadays is to KEEP THE DISTRIBUTION GOING!
Basically the Dow can do anything it want's as long as it's stays between 10,200 and 10,600...! And as we see every day now...it always does!
Ultimately, this market is going to have to break down... There is simply NO LOGIC behind the current action. Sooner or later, the Dow will break below 10,000 and stay there.
Only then will the NEW TECTONICS of the Global Economy be allowed to take over the US markets... Something big is coming and the powers that be want to hold it off as long as possible.
Perhaps a really bad Xmas selling season will be the FINAL STRAW... Perhaps some political or geo-political event? But you simply can not live by brokerage upgrades, creative accounting and spin forever...!
SIMPLY PUT, SOONER OR LATER MACROECONOMICS WILL OUT THIS MARKET... EVERYDAY NOW WALL STREET "PAINTS ITSELF INTO A CORNER" A LITTLE MORE...AND A LITTLE MORE.
...despite the fact that bonds are plunging and the new GDP numbers almost gaurantee much much higher rates next year...
But the Street only reacts to the immediate number...there is no "long term" thinking allowed on Wall Street these days. Yes, the run up today will reverse next week...but the sole purpose of the markets nowadays is to KEEP THE DISTRIBUTION GOING!
Basically the Dow can do anything it want's as long as it's stays between 10,200 and 10,600...! And as we see every day now...it always does!
Ultimately, this market is going to have to break down... There is simply NO LOGIC behind the current action. Sooner or later, the Dow will break below 10,000 and stay there.
Only then will the NEW TECTONICS of the Global Economy be allowed to take over the US markets... Something big is coming and the powers that be want to hold it off as long as possible.
Perhaps a really bad Xmas selling season will be the FINAL STRAW... Perhaps some political or geo-political event? But you simply can not live by brokerage upgrades, creative accounting and spin forever...!
SIMPLY PUT, SOONER OR LATER MACROECONOMICS WILL OUT THIS MARKET... EVERYDAY NOW WALL STREET "PAINTS ITSELF INTO A CORNER" A LITTLE MORE...AND A LITTLE MORE.
BONDS PLUNGE! GREENSPAN'S CONUNDRUM SOLVED!
Has the FEDs "conundrum" about the bond market "lowering" rates even as the FED was raising them been solved?
I think it has... The only problem is that any "return to normalcy" in the bond market will be a disaster for stocks!
A 5% ten year bond could put Bank CD rates in attractive territory for mom and pop investors who have been stuck in "Nowheresville" on Wall Street for the past many years...
Wall Street will only see the bottoms of retail investors feet...when they can get 5%+ on a six month CD!
BACK TO THE BANKS IN 2006! CONUNDRUM SOLVED! BYE,BYE STOCKS...HELLO CDs!
I think it has... The only problem is that any "return to normalcy" in the bond market will be a disaster for stocks!
A 5% ten year bond could put Bank CD rates in attractive territory for mom and pop investors who have been stuck in "Nowheresville" on Wall Street for the past many years...
Wall Street will only see the bottoms of retail investors feet...when they can get 5%+ on a six month CD!
BACK TO THE BANKS IN 2006! CONUNDRUM SOLVED! BYE,BYE STOCKS...HELLO CDs!
MASSIVE CREDIT BUBBLE IN GDP NUMBERS!
People keep spending money they do not have...!
And now they can't even go bankrupt on these debts...as the credit card companies have a freer hand to make these credit card transactions more burdensome on consumers.
Clearly, the inflation numbers are going to continue bad...as the energy crisis works it's way into the economy. And the debt and deficits will keep enough pressure on the dollar to gaurantee HIGHER RATES for the indefinite future.
Still you have to wonder about all those folks who bought new GAS GUZZLERS from Detroit during the BIG SUMMER/AUTUMN/WINTER SALES! With high gas prices many of these cars are simply undrivable for long distance travel...of course, to the extent that people merely drive to work and back...maybe that's doable...but otherwise? I would expect that some will default on their contracts eventually as the economy continues to become more and more of an anomaly.
There is a MASSIVE CREDIT BUBBLE hiding in those GDP numbers today... And higher rates and lower bonds are now all but a given for 2006.
And now they can't even go bankrupt on these debts...as the credit card companies have a freer hand to make these credit card transactions more burdensome on consumers.
Clearly, the inflation numbers are going to continue bad...as the energy crisis works it's way into the economy. And the debt and deficits will keep enough pressure on the dollar to gaurantee HIGHER RATES for the indefinite future.
Still you have to wonder about all those folks who bought new GAS GUZZLERS from Detroit during the BIG SUMMER/AUTUMN/WINTER SALES! With high gas prices many of these cars are simply undrivable for long distance travel...of course, to the extent that people merely drive to work and back...maybe that's doable...but otherwise? I would expect that some will default on their contracts eventually as the economy continues to become more and more of an anomaly.
There is a MASSIVE CREDIT BUBBLE hiding in those GDP numbers today... And higher rates and lower bonds are now all but a given for 2006.
Thursday, October 27, 2005
WILL BERNANKE "SOLVE" GREENSPANS BOND CONUNDRUM?
Give the reaction of global bond markets to Bernanke as Fed Chairman...I suspect that GREENSPANS CONUNDRUM has been solved...!
WALMART HYPOCRISY SHOWS...
Walmart wants the minimum wage raised so it's employees can "afford" to pay for their own health insurance...?
How very thoughtfull of them...especially with Republican governors cutting Medicaide across the board...
How very thoughtfull of them...especially with Republican governors cutting Medicaide across the board...
MEIERS GETS "BORKED!!" BY EVERYONE!
It's one thing if the liberals hate you.
It's something else if the conservatives hate you too!
MEIERS HAD NO SUPPORT... No "Base" to work from...other than the support of Dubya.
So this thing was likely doomed from the start; and finished as soon as conservative columnists starting trashing Meiers mercilessly.
The amazing thing was that the Meiers nomination SHOWED THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT that the Bush Family DOESN'T REALLY WANT TO OVERTURN ROEvWADE OR SUPPORT THEIR RADICAL "SOCIAL AGENDA!"
Because most of the so-called religious right agenda is way, way out of the mainstream...
The truth is that it was put up or shut up time for the Republicans...and they choose not to put up the kind of people that the radical right wants on the court...
Very likely Bush will go with a "more qualified" candidate next time... Perhaps the time is ripe for Gonzales...and the "first Hispanic" on the court?
But I seriously doubt that Dubya will go with a Bible Belt religious conservative... He just can't afford to have that fight before the 2006 elections... Republicans will loose the Suburban and Exurban voters in droves!
Especially with the wheels coming off the economy... And foreigners deserting the bond market in anticipaton of the coming Bernanke Era at the Fed...
Meiers was the wrong person for the job...who knows maybe she even "recommended herself." But this isn't the first time Dubya & Co have show a political tin ear...
The mistakes and screwups are coming hard and fast now...and we still have three more years of Bush in the White House get through... What next?
It's something else if the conservatives hate you too!
MEIERS HAD NO SUPPORT... No "Base" to work from...other than the support of Dubya.
So this thing was likely doomed from the start; and finished as soon as conservative columnists starting trashing Meiers mercilessly.
The amazing thing was that the Meiers nomination SHOWED THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT that the Bush Family DOESN'T REALLY WANT TO OVERTURN ROEvWADE OR SUPPORT THEIR RADICAL "SOCIAL AGENDA!"
Because most of the so-called religious right agenda is way, way out of the mainstream...
The truth is that it was put up or shut up time for the Republicans...and they choose not to put up the kind of people that the radical right wants on the court...
Very likely Bush will go with a "more qualified" candidate next time... Perhaps the time is ripe for Gonzales...and the "first Hispanic" on the court?
But I seriously doubt that Dubya will go with a Bible Belt religious conservative... He just can't afford to have that fight before the 2006 elections... Republicans will loose the Suburban and Exurban voters in droves!
Especially with the wheels coming off the economy... And foreigners deserting the bond market in anticipaton of the coming Bernanke Era at the Fed...
Meiers was the wrong person for the job...who knows maybe she even "recommended herself." But this isn't the first time Dubya & Co have show a political tin ear...
The mistakes and screwups are coming hard and fast now...and we still have three more years of Bush in the White House get through... What next?
IS CONSUMERISM FINISHED....?
With our New Debtors'Prison in place, and the doors to the bankruptcy courts now securely locked...
Credit card companies are already raising "minimum payments," and making life difficult for their credit card users...who, alas, now CAN'T go bankrupt...unless of course, they are willing to quit their jobs!
So, the doors are locked...and the banks are starting a fire under their credit card users... This could be interesting...especially for retailers this Christmas. Amazon is already "warning."
Could American Consumerism, (except for the rich), be finished...?
Credit card companies are already raising "minimum payments," and making life difficult for their credit card users...who, alas, now CAN'T go bankrupt...unless of course, they are willing to quit their jobs!
So, the doors are locked...and the banks are starting a fire under their credit card users... This could be interesting...especially for retailers this Christmas. Amazon is already "warning."
Could American Consumerism, (except for the rich), be finished...?
Wednesday, October 26, 2005
MARKETS IN EXTREME PLUNGE PROTECTION MODE!
Volume could be huge...as market masters try to control the float and avoid a meltdown...
The next few weeks will be interesting. Volume is way up but the market is still "directionless"...
This simply can not continue; and with central banks aggitated by the Bernanke Transition at the FED...there is no telling how this ends. I would note that the Crash of 1987 was "caused" by the German Central Bank increasing rates...!
And 1987 was the LAST TIME A NEW FED CHAIRMAN WAS APPOINTED!
The next few weeks will be interesting. Volume is way up but the market is still "directionless"...
This simply can not continue; and with central banks aggitated by the Bernanke Transition at the FED...there is no telling how this ends. I would note that the Crash of 1987 was "caused" by the German Central Bank increasing rates...!
And 1987 was the LAST TIME A NEW FED CHAIRMAN WAS APPOINTED!
GLOBAL BOND CRASH LOOMS....!
The coming BERNANKE BUBBLE is starting to sink in at foreign central banks...?
And oil and gold are going through the roof again...better fill up the tank now!
Mixing things up at the central bank level is never a good idea... All the paradigms shift. All the assumptions change. People start to look for protection.
This is how it starts, folks... How it ends is anyone's guess...stay tuned!
And oil and gold are going through the roof again...better fill up the tank now!
Mixing things up at the central bank level is never a good idea... All the paradigms shift. All the assumptions change. People start to look for protection.
This is how it starts, folks... How it ends is anyone's guess...stay tuned!
DELPHI: AN INDUSTRIAL WALMART!
Delphi's "offer" of $9 per hour with almost no benefits...is a red flag for the UAW and could cause a massive and destructive strike that could take down the American economy...
Delphi essentially wants to turn industrial and manufacturing jobs in Walmart Jobs. This would destroy the middle class in America...at least what's left of the middle class.
The only "living wage" "real" jobs would end up being in state and local government, but even there the defined benefit pensions that have been promised to government workers would likely not be paid...as the "new poverty" works it's way up the economic food chain.
The Ultra-rich simply are not likely to "increase" their taxes to pay these public sector benefits...and the middle class, the traditional "tax class," will be mostly nonexistant. And the Bubba Republicans and Religious Poor have an almost infinite ability to be distracted by cheap "wedge issues" like gays and abortion.
A STRIKE AT DELPHI WOULD DRAW THE LINE IN THE SAND...IT COULD BE THE LAST STRAW FOR THE AMERICAN WORKER TO TURN AROUND THIS TOXIC GLOBALISM THAT HAS TAKEN OVER IN WASHINGTON AND WALL STREET...
IF DELPHI WANTS TO BECOME AN INDUSTRIAL WALMART! I THINK A MAJOR STRIKE IS NOW INEVITABLE... Stay tuned.
Delphi essentially wants to turn industrial and manufacturing jobs in Walmart Jobs. This would destroy the middle class in America...at least what's left of the middle class.
The only "living wage" "real" jobs would end up being in state and local government, but even there the defined benefit pensions that have been promised to government workers would likely not be paid...as the "new poverty" works it's way up the economic food chain.
The Ultra-rich simply are not likely to "increase" their taxes to pay these public sector benefits...and the middle class, the traditional "tax class," will be mostly nonexistant. And the Bubba Republicans and Religious Poor have an almost infinite ability to be distracted by cheap "wedge issues" like gays and abortion.
A STRIKE AT DELPHI WOULD DRAW THE LINE IN THE SAND...IT COULD BE THE LAST STRAW FOR THE AMERICAN WORKER TO TURN AROUND THIS TOXIC GLOBALISM THAT HAS TAKEN OVER IN WASHINGTON AND WALL STREET...
IF DELPHI WANTS TO BECOME AN INDUSTRIAL WALMART! I THINK A MAJOR STRIKE IS NOW INEVITABLE... Stay tuned.
Tuesday, October 25, 2005
CONSUMERS PLUNGE....NECESSITIES ONLY SPENDING
Consumer Confidence was down big...
But that may be just a down payment on what's to come...
My totally unscientific indicators, (local retail cashiers), tell me that people aren't spending money on "luxuries" anymore... If you're selling soap and toilet paper...you're probably OK... Ditto Food, Beer and liquor and at some low end resturants, people like to eat!
...and, of course, lottery tickets. And Gas for the car is Numbero Uno too! And the electric bill has to be remembered, or the lights have a nasty way of going out.
When Walmart got into groceries and away from clothing, housewares, knick-knacks...and other "dry goods" they did the right thing. People are simply buying the essentials now. Or, as some might say: If you can't eat it, your don't need! it...
This is a long term trend...and it will be confirmed in spades in the coming numbers.
But that may be just a down payment on what's to come...
My totally unscientific indicators, (local retail cashiers), tell me that people aren't spending money on "luxuries" anymore... If you're selling soap and toilet paper...you're probably OK... Ditto Food, Beer and liquor and at some low end resturants, people like to eat!
...and, of course, lottery tickets. And Gas for the car is Numbero Uno too! And the electric bill has to be remembered, or the lights have a nasty way of going out.
When Walmart got into groceries and away from clothing, housewares, knick-knacks...and other "dry goods" they did the right thing. People are simply buying the essentials now. Or, as some might say: If you can't eat it, your don't need! it...
This is a long term trend...and it will be confirmed in spades in the coming numbers.
THE BERNANKE BUBBLE....?
As Fed Chairman will Bernanke be as much of an asset inflationist as Greenspan was?
Probably...Bernanke's obsession with "deflation" seems to gaurantee a loose monetary policy to keep "aggregate demand" high. Under Greenspan most of the "printing press" money ended up on Wall Street and in the Real Estate Bubble...even as wages fell due to the China Trade. So in that sense Bernanke is Greenspanian in his approach to monetary policy.
The problem is that Greenspan's hyper-liquidity experiment has been producing unfortunate results lately...namely near hyper-inflation in housing prices and in some commodities, especially oil and gas.
Remember inflation is always essentially a "monetary phenomenon;" and hyper-liquidity will find a way to express itself in the markets one way or another...
Worse yet the tax cuts for the rich and Wall Street interest simply add to aggregate demand and compliment the hyper-liquidity already in the system. Even while ballooning the deficits and putting pressure on the dollar.
Greenspan seems to have realized his mistakes...and has been slowing backing out of the byper-liquidity "bar room" lately...hopeing not the "spook the markets."
Now Wall Street expects to reverse all of that...and welcomes the start of the BERNANKE BUBBLE...
STILL, ONE HOPES THAT THE BANK OF CHINA WAS CONSULTED ON ALL OF THIS...BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES FINANCING THESE FED/WALLSTREET HI-JINKS IN THE END...
My hunch is that this "changing of the gaurd" at the Fed will not be welcome at foreign central banks especially if Bernanke fails to "raise rates by 25 BP" sometime in the near future... Because, that's like missing the "minimum payment" on your credit card to our many foreign money masters...!
BERNANKE SHOULD MAKE HIS FIRST OFFICAL ACT AS FED CHAIR A TRIP TO CHINA; SO HE CAN GET HIS "MARCHING ORDERS" FROM OUR NEW MONEY MASTERS IN THE ORIENT!
Probably...Bernanke's obsession with "deflation" seems to gaurantee a loose monetary policy to keep "aggregate demand" high. Under Greenspan most of the "printing press" money ended up on Wall Street and in the Real Estate Bubble...even as wages fell due to the China Trade. So in that sense Bernanke is Greenspanian in his approach to monetary policy.
The problem is that Greenspan's hyper-liquidity experiment has been producing unfortunate results lately...namely near hyper-inflation in housing prices and in some commodities, especially oil and gas.
Remember inflation is always essentially a "monetary phenomenon;" and hyper-liquidity will find a way to express itself in the markets one way or another...
Worse yet the tax cuts for the rich and Wall Street interest simply add to aggregate demand and compliment the hyper-liquidity already in the system. Even while ballooning the deficits and putting pressure on the dollar.
Greenspan seems to have realized his mistakes...and has been slowing backing out of the byper-liquidity "bar room" lately...hopeing not the "spook the markets."
Now Wall Street expects to reverse all of that...and welcomes the start of the BERNANKE BUBBLE...
STILL, ONE HOPES THAT THE BANK OF CHINA WAS CONSULTED ON ALL OF THIS...BECAUSE THEY ARE THE ONES FINANCING THESE FED/WALLSTREET HI-JINKS IN THE END...
My hunch is that this "changing of the gaurd" at the Fed will not be welcome at foreign central banks especially if Bernanke fails to "raise rates by 25 BP" sometime in the near future... Because, that's like missing the "minimum payment" on your credit card to our many foreign money masters...!
BERNANKE SHOULD MAKE HIS FIRST OFFICAL ACT AS FED CHAIR A TRIP TO CHINA; SO HE CAN GET HIS "MARCHING ORDERS" FROM OUR NEW MONEY MASTERS IN THE ORIENT!
Monday, October 24, 2005
BERNANKE BAD FOR BONDS...?
Bonds dropped on the appointment of Bernanke...not a good sign. Any hestiation in the bond market could crash the dollar and send gas through the roof... If Bernanke is bad for bonds that is bad for the economy... Foreigners like the Bank of China are holding the critical mass in the bond market
SHILLS PROTECT MARKET DURING TRANSITION
The transition away from Greenspan left nothing to chance today...the plunge protection shills were out in force, as one would expect...
The real question is how will foreign bond holders react after the dust settles...and this transition phase is important. Will Bernanke be another stooge for the markets as Greenspan was...? Clearly the Greenspan era is over...and if Bernanke trys to "do a Greenspan"...bond holders will not be forgiving...
Let the dust settle...the new guy has a hard row to hoe...
The real question is how will foreign bond holders react after the dust settles...and this transition phase is important. Will Bernanke be another stooge for the markets as Greenspan was...? Clearly the Greenspan era is over...and if Bernanke trys to "do a Greenspan"...bond holders will not be forgiving...
Let the dust settle...the new guy has a hard row to hoe...
GREENSPAN: END OF AN ERA!! BUBBLE DAZE OVER?
The BUBBLE DAZE may be ending today...
Greenspan' replacement could be named today...and I would expect a strong market reaction to the "new guy."
Can anyone have the power to create and sustain bubbles the way Greenspan did during his long tenure as BUBBBLE-MASTER-IN CHIEF? Probably not...
Indeed, the new Fed Chief will inherit an economy that is rampant with debt and deficits...where the dollar has declined against the Euro and where gold and other commodities are soaring as speculators seek protection from more Fed asset inflation and bubblemania.
Rates are going up and they most continue to go up if the bond market is to survive and the dollar stabilize. That means a better return IN THE BANK than in the markets for many savers.
GREENSPAN'S RECENT SLAVISH DEVOTION TO MONTHLY 25 PB RATE HIKES SHOWS JUST HOW BADLY HE MANAGED THE BUBBLE OF THE 1990s...
NO LONGER DO SPECULATORS SEEK TO "ANTICIPATE" THE FEDS "NEXT MOVE"...WHICH IN THE PAST WERE OFTEN AGAINST THE EVILS OF RAMPANT SPECULATION...
NOW THE SPECULATORS HAVE THE FED ON THEIR SIDE! THE FED DARES NOT CROSS OR "DISAPPOINT" THE SPECULATORS FOR FEAR OF CREATING A "MARKET PANIC." THAT'S JUST HOW STABLE THIS NEW BUBBLE BASED ECONOMY IS IN THE US...!
TODAY COULD BE THE END OF AN ERA...THE ERA OF BUBBLENOMICS, RAMPANT ASSET INFLATION, HYPER-LIQUIDITY FOR WALL STREET... IN SHORT, THE WORLD AS WE HAVE KNOWN IT SINCE 1987!
AND THERE IS A REAL POSSIBLITY THAT SOME "UNPLEASANTNESS" COULD OCCUR IN THE MARKETS ONCE THE NAME OF THE "MERE MORTAL" WHO WILL REPLACE THE "GOD OF BUBBLES" IS ANNNOUNCED...!
Greenspan' replacement could be named today...and I would expect a strong market reaction to the "new guy."
Can anyone have the power to create and sustain bubbles the way Greenspan did during his long tenure as BUBBBLE-MASTER-IN CHIEF? Probably not...
Indeed, the new Fed Chief will inherit an economy that is rampant with debt and deficits...where the dollar has declined against the Euro and where gold and other commodities are soaring as speculators seek protection from more Fed asset inflation and bubblemania.
Rates are going up and they most continue to go up if the bond market is to survive and the dollar stabilize. That means a better return IN THE BANK than in the markets for many savers.
GREENSPAN'S RECENT SLAVISH DEVOTION TO MONTHLY 25 PB RATE HIKES SHOWS JUST HOW BADLY HE MANAGED THE BUBBLE OF THE 1990s...
NO LONGER DO SPECULATORS SEEK TO "ANTICIPATE" THE FEDS "NEXT MOVE"...WHICH IN THE PAST WERE OFTEN AGAINST THE EVILS OF RAMPANT SPECULATION...
NOW THE SPECULATORS HAVE THE FED ON THEIR SIDE! THE FED DARES NOT CROSS OR "DISAPPOINT" THE SPECULATORS FOR FEAR OF CREATING A "MARKET PANIC." THAT'S JUST HOW STABLE THIS NEW BUBBLE BASED ECONOMY IS IN THE US...!
TODAY COULD BE THE END OF AN ERA...THE ERA OF BUBBLENOMICS, RAMPANT ASSET INFLATION, HYPER-LIQUIDITY FOR WALL STREET... IN SHORT, THE WORLD AS WE HAVE KNOWN IT SINCE 1987!
AND THERE IS A REAL POSSIBLITY THAT SOME "UNPLEASANTNESS" COULD OCCUR IN THE MARKETS ONCE THE NAME OF THE "MERE MORTAL" WHO WILL REPLACE THE "GOD OF BUBBLES" IS ANNNOUNCED...!
MARKETS CONTINUE TO SPIN WILDLY...
Will Dow 10,200 still hold as the "buy point?"
Can the market hold up if Dow 10,000 is broken for whatever reason(s)...? That is the question of the day... But there appears to be a whole lot of "distribution" going on under the surface. And gold is holding up better than oil lately...Wassup there?
Can the market hold up if Dow 10,000 is broken for whatever reason(s)...? That is the question of the day... But there appears to be a whole lot of "distribution" going on under the surface. And gold is holding up better than oil lately...Wassup there?
AMERICA: PRISON NATION...STUPID NATION...
News that the American prison population is now at world record levels should not be surprising.
The US popular culture is so toxic that few can escape it's influence...and children and less intelligent adults are the most vulnerable...
Unlike most nations of the world the US does not have a tradition of learning, or respect for intellectual achievement... Most of the world went through a period where aristocratic elites dominated the cultural environment...and a "respect for" learning, art and culture was encouraged among the lower classes of society.
Not so in the US or the "new world"...which was founded on the total rejection of the old aristorcratic traditions of Europe...and unfortunately that included the respect for learning and intellectual achievement found in most places in the world today...for example, most parts of Europe, China, Japan and India to name only a few places that are currently far ahead of Americans in respect for learning and intellectual achievement. And alas, prove it everyday now!
Indeed, America is decending into a bizarre "religiousity" that is only found in places like the middle east, where the "Enlightenment" tradition has not taken hold. Most Americans today "believe in" angels...and think that Satan is real. Unlike Europ,e were a Secular and Scientific Humanism and socialist politics is dominant.
If America's excessively primative religiousity were not enough? ...
There is the highly toxic US popular culture also in the mix...which sees violence as "entertainment," "fluff news" as information, with a materialist attitude gone mad as the norm, and were sports and entertainment "celebrities" are very often simply "famous for being famous."
Is there EVEN ONE American pop cultural "icon" that would encourage children to learn? To respect culture, or even seek intellectual achievements? I can't think of even one! Not so in most of the rest of the world...
Americans who want to avoid this toxic cultural soup are required to seek refuge in the backwaters of the American media...in places like NPR, Public Television or the university presses.
But it's a losing battle at best...when everone else is "into" Reality TV, The Donald, and Paris Hilton...!
Americans are probably the stupidest people on earth bar none! Consider...most graduate programs in the sciences and engineering are dominated by foreigner students...most medical professionals are from outside the US...the only thing that "interests" American youth is money and fame.
But alas, the days of the Greenspanian economic bubble are ending...the debt is piling up...and foreigners are increasingly in control of America's economic destiny.
Is it any wonder that a nation this stupid should also lead the world in prisons and prison population?
America enters the 21st Century as the world's number one PRISON NATION...
Perhaps it's time for the more intelligent folks in the US to start looking for another place to live...??
The US popular culture is so toxic that few can escape it's influence...and children and less intelligent adults are the most vulnerable...
Unlike most nations of the world the US does not have a tradition of learning, or respect for intellectual achievement... Most of the world went through a period where aristocratic elites dominated the cultural environment...and a "respect for" learning, art and culture was encouraged among the lower classes of society.
Not so in the US or the "new world"...which was founded on the total rejection of the old aristorcratic traditions of Europe...and unfortunately that included the respect for learning and intellectual achievement found in most places in the world today...for example, most parts of Europe, China, Japan and India to name only a few places that are currently far ahead of Americans in respect for learning and intellectual achievement. And alas, prove it everyday now!
Indeed, America is decending into a bizarre "religiousity" that is only found in places like the middle east, where the "Enlightenment" tradition has not taken hold. Most Americans today "believe in" angels...and think that Satan is real. Unlike Europ,e were a Secular and Scientific Humanism and socialist politics is dominant.
If America's excessively primative religiousity were not enough? ...
There is the highly toxic US popular culture also in the mix...which sees violence as "entertainment," "fluff news" as information, with a materialist attitude gone mad as the norm, and were sports and entertainment "celebrities" are very often simply "famous for being famous."
Is there EVEN ONE American pop cultural "icon" that would encourage children to learn? To respect culture, or even seek intellectual achievements? I can't think of even one! Not so in most of the rest of the world...
Americans who want to avoid this toxic cultural soup are required to seek refuge in the backwaters of the American media...in places like NPR, Public Television or the university presses.
But it's a losing battle at best...when everone else is "into" Reality TV, The Donald, and Paris Hilton...!
Americans are probably the stupidest people on earth bar none! Consider...most graduate programs in the sciences and engineering are dominated by foreigner students...most medical professionals are from outside the US...the only thing that "interests" American youth is money and fame.
But alas, the days of the Greenspanian economic bubble are ending...the debt is piling up...and foreigners are increasingly in control of America's economic destiny.
Is it any wonder that a nation this stupid should also lead the world in prisons and prison population?
America enters the 21st Century as the world's number one PRISON NATION...
Perhaps it's time for the more intelligent folks in the US to start looking for another place to live...??
Sunday, October 23, 2005
IS BIRD FLU NOW UNSTOPPABLE....?
News of Bird Flu in England mades it very likely that the epidemic is now unstoppable.
And most of the blame goes to THE GLOBAL ECONOMY!
Like with the "opening of the west" after the Crusades of the middle ages;...the road for new pathogens, that may have been contained in small "clusters" in backward parts of the world, is now dangerously re-open...
I would blame this most recent pandemic on the GREED OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL to mix and match ever cheaper labor with ever more mobile capital in International Trade...and alas, now it's causing a catastrophe unlike anything since the GREAT WAR of 1914 caused the 1918-1919 Great Dying!
The human race is too fragile too "live globally." There simply must be limits on the intermingling of goods and populations...We are not SUPER-HUMAN. And especially not now with greed the only motivating force in our "free trade" based world economy.
If Dubya & Co want to "salvage" their remaining time in office...I would hope that they would look to public health issues and national health care as their last best hope for a now failing presidency...
And most of the blame goes to THE GLOBAL ECONOMY!
Like with the "opening of the west" after the Crusades of the middle ages;...the road for new pathogens, that may have been contained in small "clusters" in backward parts of the world, is now dangerously re-open...
I would blame this most recent pandemic on the GREED OF INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL to mix and match ever cheaper labor with ever more mobile capital in International Trade...and alas, now it's causing a catastrophe unlike anything since the GREAT WAR of 1914 caused the 1918-1919 Great Dying!
The human race is too fragile too "live globally." There simply must be limits on the intermingling of goods and populations...We are not SUPER-HUMAN. And especially not now with greed the only motivating force in our "free trade" based world economy.
If Dubya & Co want to "salvage" their remaining time in office...I would hope that they would look to public health issues and national health care as their last best hope for a now failing presidency...
THE REPUBLICANS BIGGEST BIG LIE...!
Perhaps the Republicans' BIGGEST BIG LIE is that one that says:
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NO IDEAS, NOTHING TO SAY...AND NO AGENDA FOR AMERICA!
Republicans then buttress this lie by insisting that Howard Dean is some kind of a clown who no one could believe.
Now I know many Democrats who are outraged at the role the media and conservatives have assigned to Howard Dean... These Democrats point out that; AMAZINGLY, if you actually listen to what Dean is saying--IT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NEED TO HEAR...
Consider:
1. Health Care is a national disgrace that is bankrupting the nation. Why? Because the Kongress is too Korrupt to confront the health care lobby and Big Pharma and create a single payer National Health Care Plan--like almost every other industrialized nation has, and has had, for literally decades!
2. American jobs can not be held hostage to the greed of INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, which constantly seeks ever cheaper labor... A nation that does not protect it's consumers and it's markets WILL LOSE THEM... AND AMERICAN IS LOSING IT'S MARKETS AND IT'S MIDDLE CLASS CONSUMERS!
3. Tax Cuts for the rich are always "productive" because the rich "invest" the money in means of production which in turn "trickles down" as job creation... Well, maybe it used to...but not now.
If you bankrupt the central government...? Services and yes, redistribution of wealth from top to bottom, can not take place. This type of tax policy carried out for too long merely gives you a medieval economy with a fabulously wealthy elite and a bunch of poor peasants on down.
4. REDISTRIBUTION IS NOT A BAD WORD. REDISTRIBUTION FROM THE ULTRA-RICH TO THE ULTRA-POOR AND THE WORKING CLASSES IS HOW CONSUMER CAPITALISM MADE THE RICH WEALTHY IN THE FIRST PLACE... This little truism seems to have been lost in the Bushian nonsense..."it's your money."
5. UNIONIZED LABOR AND SOCIAL SECURITY, ALA THE 1930's, IS WHAT GAVE US THE GREAT POST-WAR MIDDLE CLASS AND THE BABY BOOM OF THE 1950s and 1960s...
(Remember back then women could AFFORD to stay home and have kids...unlike today where children are an unwelcome burden on the struggling middle class life-style.)
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A LOT TO SAY TO THE MIDDLE CLASS IN AMERICAN ABOUT THE ECONOMIC DISASTERS THAT HAVE BEFALLEN US UNDER THE REPUBLICAN SUPPLY-SIDE FREE TRADE NONSENSE!
ALL THE REPUBLICANS HAVE TO OFFER IS MORE GAY BASHING, THINLY VAILED RACISM AND PSEUDO-RELIGIOUS HIJINKS...THAT MASKS AN ECONOMIC AGENDA DESIGNED TO ALLOW INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL TO CONTINUE LOOTING THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND DESTROYING THE MIDDLE CLASS AS WE HAVE KNOW IT SINCE 1945!
NO WONDER THE BIGGEST REPUBLICAN BIG LIE IS THE ONE THAT SAYS:
DEMOCRATS HAVE NOTHING TO SAY!
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE NO IDEAS, NOTHING TO SAY...AND NO AGENDA FOR AMERICA!
Republicans then buttress this lie by insisting that Howard Dean is some kind of a clown who no one could believe.
Now I know many Democrats who are outraged at the role the media and conservatives have assigned to Howard Dean... These Democrats point out that; AMAZINGLY, if you actually listen to what Dean is saying--IT'S EXACTLY WHAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NEED TO HEAR...
Consider:
1. Health Care is a national disgrace that is bankrupting the nation. Why? Because the Kongress is too Korrupt to confront the health care lobby and Big Pharma and create a single payer National Health Care Plan--like almost every other industrialized nation has, and has had, for literally decades!
2. American jobs can not be held hostage to the greed of INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, which constantly seeks ever cheaper labor... A nation that does not protect it's consumers and it's markets WILL LOSE THEM... AND AMERICAN IS LOSING IT'S MARKETS AND IT'S MIDDLE CLASS CONSUMERS!
3. Tax Cuts for the rich are always "productive" because the rich "invest" the money in means of production which in turn "trickles down" as job creation... Well, maybe it used to...but not now.
If you bankrupt the central government...? Services and yes, redistribution of wealth from top to bottom, can not take place. This type of tax policy carried out for too long merely gives you a medieval economy with a fabulously wealthy elite and a bunch of poor peasants on down.
4. REDISTRIBUTION IS NOT A BAD WORD. REDISTRIBUTION FROM THE ULTRA-RICH TO THE ULTRA-POOR AND THE WORKING CLASSES IS HOW CONSUMER CAPITALISM MADE THE RICH WEALTHY IN THE FIRST PLACE... This little truism seems to have been lost in the Bushian nonsense..."it's your money."
5. UNIONIZED LABOR AND SOCIAL SECURITY, ALA THE 1930's, IS WHAT GAVE US THE GREAT POST-WAR MIDDLE CLASS AND THE BABY BOOM OF THE 1950s and 1960s...
(Remember back then women could AFFORD to stay home and have kids...unlike today where children are an unwelcome burden on the struggling middle class life-style.)
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A LOT TO SAY TO THE MIDDLE CLASS IN AMERICAN ABOUT THE ECONOMIC DISASTERS THAT HAVE BEFALLEN US UNDER THE REPUBLICAN SUPPLY-SIDE FREE TRADE NONSENSE!
ALL THE REPUBLICANS HAVE TO OFFER IS MORE GAY BASHING, THINLY VAILED RACISM AND PSEUDO-RELIGIOUS HIJINKS...THAT MASKS AN ECONOMIC AGENDA DESIGNED TO ALLOW INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL TO CONTINUE LOOTING THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND DESTROYING THE MIDDLE CLASS AS WE HAVE KNOW IT SINCE 1945!
NO WONDER THE BIGGEST REPUBLICAN BIG LIE IS THE ONE THAT SAYS:
DEMOCRATS HAVE NOTHING TO SAY!
Saturday, October 22, 2005
CAN BUSH AFFORD TO DESTABILIZE SYRIA...?
A couple of years ago Dubya & Co would be preparing to invade Syria now...
But, recent experience has taught them that at times STABILITY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST... Especially if your "doing democracy on the cheap!"
Indeed, it now appears that Saddam provided more stability for Iraq than Dubya and Rummy have been unable to provide...despite great time, expense and manpower.
Now, Dubya seems less likely to simply be SHARON'S GOLEM in the middle east; or to take his marching orders from the Likudnics in Israel or Washington. Amazingly, Dubya persistantly asks Israel to stop the settlements on the West Bank...and of course, Sharon just builds more!
But there is an odd logic among the Jihadi of the middle east that says in effect "Bring it on!" The entire goal of Osama & Co is more unstability in the region, thus I should guess that Osama was quite happy about the UN report "blaming Syria" for the assassination in Lebanon.
Still, Dubya and Rummy have learned a few lessons about military strategy post-Iraq. Because, as Hitler soon discovered the "blitzkreig" may win the battle, but lose the war eventually.
Bulling your way into a country is one thing, but occupying it successfully is quite another.
Without some organized local support, as happen in Afgahistan with the Northern Alliance of Drug Lords, the occupiers are merely strangers in a strange land. The occupiers simply can not depend on quislings, exlies, paid low lifes and toadies to do the job.
Will Dubya make the mistake of "regime change" in Syria at this dire moment in the middle east...? Can Bush afford to destabilize yet another Sunni Muslim country? Is Lebanon itself "out of the woods," or is it a power keg awaiting a spark? Has Afhganistan been successful at anything, except lowering the price of Heroin for the junkies of Europe? Is Pakistan "safe" after the earthquake..., or is it more vulnerable to Jihadis?
Can "Top Gun" moments in the middle east really change the hearts and minds of Muslims about American and Israeli intentions in the region...? Indeed, are "Top Gun" moments even really "policy?"
Dubya has a full plate and his cup runneth over in the middle east right now...and more instability could be the straw that breaks the camel's back...
...(More mixed metaphors to follow)
But, recent experience has taught them that at times STABILITY IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST... Especially if your "doing democracy on the cheap!"
Indeed, it now appears that Saddam provided more stability for Iraq than Dubya and Rummy have been unable to provide...despite great time, expense and manpower.
Now, Dubya seems less likely to simply be SHARON'S GOLEM in the middle east; or to take his marching orders from the Likudnics in Israel or Washington. Amazingly, Dubya persistantly asks Israel to stop the settlements on the West Bank...and of course, Sharon just builds more!
But there is an odd logic among the Jihadi of the middle east that says in effect "Bring it on!" The entire goal of Osama & Co is more unstability in the region, thus I should guess that Osama was quite happy about the UN report "blaming Syria" for the assassination in Lebanon.
Still, Dubya and Rummy have learned a few lessons about military strategy post-Iraq. Because, as Hitler soon discovered the "blitzkreig" may win the battle, but lose the war eventually.
Bulling your way into a country is one thing, but occupying it successfully is quite another.
Without some organized local support, as happen in Afgahistan with the Northern Alliance of Drug Lords, the occupiers are merely strangers in a strange land. The occupiers simply can not depend on quislings, exlies, paid low lifes and toadies to do the job.
Will Dubya make the mistake of "regime change" in Syria at this dire moment in the middle east...? Can Bush afford to destabilize yet another Sunni Muslim country? Is Lebanon itself "out of the woods," or is it a power keg awaiting a spark? Has Afhganistan been successful at anything, except lowering the price of Heroin for the junkies of Europe? Is Pakistan "safe" after the earthquake..., or is it more vulnerable to Jihadis?
Can "Top Gun" moments in the middle east really change the hearts and minds of Muslims about American and Israeli intentions in the region...? Indeed, are "Top Gun" moments even really "policy?"
Dubya has a full plate and his cup runneth over in the middle east right now...and more instability could be the straw that breaks the camel's back...
...(More mixed metaphors to follow)
Friday, October 21, 2005
GOLDS SOAR...
Was the selloff of a "buying opportunity?"
It seems so...with the dollar and ALL commodities in flux now...hard assets are a safe bet it seems.
It seems so...with the dollar and ALL commodities in flux now...hard assets are a safe bet it seems.
GOOGLE...THE NEXT AOL??
GOOGLE...BOSTON CHICKEN...KRISPY KREME...EINSTEIN BAGELS...
THERE IS ALWAYS SOMETHING OR SOMEONE NEW AND DIFFERENT...THAT WANTS TO "EAT YOUR LUNCH."
If Google wants to survive this "blessed period" of gross over-valuation, it should "do an AOL" and buy some big old media or content player that is undervalued... I question the staying power of Googles business model.
Because even Microsoft has to keep "eating other companies" to stay even these days...
THERE IS ALWAYS SOMETHING OR SOMEONE NEW AND DIFFERENT...THAT WANTS TO "EAT YOUR LUNCH."
If Google wants to survive this "blessed period" of gross over-valuation, it should "do an AOL" and buy some big old media or content player that is undervalued... I question the staying power of Googles business model.
Because even Microsoft has to keep "eating other companies" to stay even these days...
THOSE WACKY, WACKY MARKETS...DOW KISSES 10,200, THEN RUNS?
Hmmm.... Looks like PLUNGE PROTECTION is having trouble controlling the "float" lately...
The wild swings show that as plung protection kicks in the traders are starting to take advantage of it...
The volume has been unnaturally heavy lately which is a sign of trouble in the ranks...somebody is OFF THE RESERVATION on Wall Street.
Clearly, BUY DOW 10,200 is being challenged now... But with the entire US economy now riding on the whims of the speculators--little can be left to chance.
The entire RETIREMENT SCHEME of 401ks is on the line...even as defined benefit pensions are flushed away EN MASSE in the bankruptcy courts by multi-national corporations...
The only ones who can't go bankrupt are the Bubbas! And THAT even while the big banks are reporting record profits! Sorry Bubba, it ain't easy being stupid!
The wild swings show that as plung protection kicks in the traders are starting to take advantage of it...
The volume has been unnaturally heavy lately which is a sign of trouble in the ranks...somebody is OFF THE RESERVATION on Wall Street.
Clearly, BUY DOW 10,200 is being challenged now... But with the entire US economy now riding on the whims of the speculators--little can be left to chance.
The entire RETIREMENT SCHEME of 401ks is on the line...even as defined benefit pensions are flushed away EN MASSE in the bankruptcy courts by multi-national corporations...
The only ones who can't go bankrupt are the Bubbas! And THAT even while the big banks are reporting record profits! Sorry Bubba, it ain't easy being stupid!
BURN BOOKS, NOT GAS...
I have ten boxes of used books in my garage that I can't get rid of...
I took them to the Salvation Army... Sorry we don't take books anymore...yet the books in their stores are priced at $1.99 and $2.99!
Ditto with the other donation centers... What to do? I'm sure they would be picked up in the weekly garbage...but that would just put them in some landfill!
So, I've decided to BURN THEM! Instead of wood this winter...
"Oh Honey, could you throw a few more Hemingways on the fire... And toss that old Poe volume "Tamerlane" in too..."
I took them to the Salvation Army... Sorry we don't take books anymore...yet the books in their stores are priced at $1.99 and $2.99!
Ditto with the other donation centers... What to do? I'm sure they would be picked up in the weekly garbage...but that would just put them in some landfill!
So, I've decided to BURN THEM! Instead of wood this winter...
"Oh Honey, could you throw a few more Hemingways on the fire... And toss that old Poe volume "Tamerlane" in too..."
BLAME SYRIA...YES, BUT...
Can the Bush administration afford to pick a fight with yet another Muslim nation in the middle east...?
Isn't their plate a little full? My hunch is that the UN "report" will be a two day story and then we move on to realities on the ground...
Isn't their plate a little full? My hunch is that the UN "report" will be a two day story and then we move on to realities on the ground...
Tuesday, October 18, 2005
FREE TRADE SLAVES...REPENT!
I am always amazed at the slavish devotion the economic community has for FREE TRADE.
You'd think that the concept of Free Trade came down the mountain with Moses and was inscribed on stone tablets... But this is completely wrong!
Free Trade as it was conceived in the 18th Century was ALWAYS a political doctrine, never a serious economic theory... If you read up on the history of Free Trade you will discover that it's primarily political in nature. Indeed, various groups "use"
Free Trade as it suits their interests under various economic conditions.
Republicans and Capitalists were big protectionists prior to 1932...and LIBERALS and Democrats were the Free Traders! Shocking?
Origins of Free Trade go back to the early Industrial Revolution in England when the New Industrialists were seeking to "unlock" the potential trapped in the old Feudal aristocracy's land holdings where the theory of protection was very deep seated.
So Free Trade is the ultimate Flip-Flop economic theory...anyone can and does use it for temporary gain as needed.
Now Free Trade is being used against the working classes in the US to "free up" international capital to seek ever cheaper labor...
The economic consequences to the American economy are huge...ie massive deficits, but the Theory of Free Trade has been so deeply brain-washed into the economic and academic community as well as the major media, which never "got over" the scare of McCarthyism...; that now no one dares speak the truth about it...
The "comparative advantage" of 18th Century French Wine and English "Pig Iron" were obvious...England had the mines and France had the vinyards... But now the compartaive advantage is ALL CHEAP LABOR as technology has been diffused by the Internet...and by the willngness of International Capital to give away national secrets to achieve temporary gain...
Things will continue to spiral down until the Free Trade Slaves Repent and look at what's really happening....
You'd think that the concept of Free Trade came down the mountain with Moses and was inscribed on stone tablets... But this is completely wrong!
Free Trade as it was conceived in the 18th Century was ALWAYS a political doctrine, never a serious economic theory... If you read up on the history of Free Trade you will discover that it's primarily political in nature. Indeed, various groups "use"
Free Trade as it suits their interests under various economic conditions.
Republicans and Capitalists were big protectionists prior to 1932...and LIBERALS and Democrats were the Free Traders! Shocking?
Origins of Free Trade go back to the early Industrial Revolution in England when the New Industrialists were seeking to "unlock" the potential trapped in the old Feudal aristocracy's land holdings where the theory of protection was very deep seated.
So Free Trade is the ultimate Flip-Flop economic theory...anyone can and does use it for temporary gain as needed.
Now Free Trade is being used against the working classes in the US to "free up" international capital to seek ever cheaper labor...
The economic consequences to the American economy are huge...ie massive deficits, but the Theory of Free Trade has been so deeply brain-washed into the economic and academic community as well as the major media, which never "got over" the scare of McCarthyism...; that now no one dares speak the truth about it...
The "comparative advantage" of 18th Century French Wine and English "Pig Iron" were obvious...England had the mines and France had the vinyards... But now the compartaive advantage is ALL CHEAP LABOR as technology has been diffused by the Internet...and by the willngness of International Capital to give away national secrets to achieve temporary gain...
Things will continue to spiral down until the Free Trade Slaves Repent and look at what's really happening....
IT'S CALLED STAGFLATION, STUPID!
Today's massive inflation number is being contrasted
with Greenspan's COMMENTS in Tokyo indicating an economic slow down caused by oil prices... And everyone is amazed. Wassup?
It's called STAGFLATION and the stupids in the media still don't get it... The way we "do recessions" in the post-1971 world is by stagflation.
WE ARE VERY LIKELY GOING TO REPEAT THE 1970's IN THE COMING YEARS... The names will be different but the economic thinking and motivations are the same.
with Greenspan's COMMENTS in Tokyo indicating an economic slow down caused by oil prices... And everyone is amazed. Wassup?
It's called STAGFLATION and the stupids in the media still don't get it... The way we "do recessions" in the post-1971 world is by stagflation.
WE ARE VERY LIKELY GOING TO REPEAT THE 1970's IN THE COMING YEARS... The names will be different but the economic thinking and motivations are the same.
Monday, October 17, 2005
DUBYA STEALS PAGE FROM SHARON'S PLAYBOOK?
Killing Civilians right after the election...VERY SHARONESQUE! A real attempt to snatch a clear defeat from the jaws of attrition...
BAD NEWS? HERE COMES 'PLUNGE PROTECTION"
As the market approaches 10,000...plunge protection always kicks in.
Usually around 10,200... This is not a market that is taking chances on dropping below 10,000. Unfortunately it is also a market that must and will drop below 10,000 at some point. Therein is the conflict for the coming weeks and months.
Can the Dow be saved...simply because it must be saved?
Usually around 10,200... This is not a market that is taking chances on dropping below 10,000. Unfortunately it is also a market that must and will drop below 10,000 at some point. Therein is the conflict for the coming weeks and months.
Can the Dow be saved...simply because it must be saved?
IRAQ's GOOFBALL CONSTITUTION...SHARON'S GOLEM
The so called Iraq "constitution" has provided Dubya
with his most recent "top gun" moment in Iraq. But alas, it's not worth the paper it's written on...
At best the constitution is a BLUEPRINT FOR THE PARTITION OF IRAQ!
In truth, all the new constitution does is set in stone the notion that the breakup of Iraq is POSSIBLE AND PROBABLE... In effect it's the Legal Foundation document that will allow the partition of Iraq to occur...at some future date...and likely soon.
There is not one iota of compromise between and among the parties...IT IS REALLY CAN AGREEMENT TO DISAGREE..AND TO ALLOW A BREAKUP TO OCCUR...
The really odd "mistake" of the Bush administration in all this, is that it attacked our old "allies" the Sunnis, who were responsible for keeping Iraq together after the colonialists left...
Then, Bush supported the west's NATURAL ENEMIES THE SHIA!
NO WONDER THINGS ARE SO CONFUSED... When you attack your friends and support your enemies...how can anyone expect a good result...?
Of course the "real reason" that Bush went into Iraq was to support Sharon's annexation of the west bank...
Dubya is really Sharon's Golem in the middle east...just tearing up things on command, but like the old Jewish Golem of Prague...things got out of control. The Golem is now causing more problems than he is solving...
Or, if you prefer and Old America West analogy....things are GOING HAYWIRE FAST...
The Shia are now supported by Iran and the US...ain't that an unintended consequence...!
And the Sunnis who are secular and scientific...are Dubya's and the west's new enemies...
Well that's what you get when you send a Golem to do a Man's Job...
with his most recent "top gun" moment in Iraq. But alas, it's not worth the paper it's written on...
At best the constitution is a BLUEPRINT FOR THE PARTITION OF IRAQ!
In truth, all the new constitution does is set in stone the notion that the breakup of Iraq is POSSIBLE AND PROBABLE... In effect it's the Legal Foundation document that will allow the partition of Iraq to occur...at some future date...and likely soon.
There is not one iota of compromise between and among the parties...IT IS REALLY CAN AGREEMENT TO DISAGREE..AND TO ALLOW A BREAKUP TO OCCUR...
The really odd "mistake" of the Bush administration in all this, is that it attacked our old "allies" the Sunnis, who were responsible for keeping Iraq together after the colonialists left...
Then, Bush supported the west's NATURAL ENEMIES THE SHIA!
NO WONDER THINGS ARE SO CONFUSED... When you attack your friends and support your enemies...how can anyone expect a good result...?
Of course the "real reason" that Bush went into Iraq was to support Sharon's annexation of the west bank...
Dubya is really Sharon's Golem in the middle east...just tearing up things on command, but like the old Jewish Golem of Prague...things got out of control. The Golem is now causing more problems than he is solving...
Or, if you prefer and Old America West analogy....things are GOING HAYWIRE FAST...
The Shia are now supported by Iran and the US...ain't that an unintended consequence...!
And the Sunnis who are secular and scientific...are Dubya's and the west's new enemies...
Well that's what you get when you send a Golem to do a Man's Job...
SOLVING THE TRADE GAP...THE FIVE PERCENT SOLUTION!
US companies are suffering from high health care costs...
and the US economy is suffering from a massive and unsustainable trade deficit...
HERE'S A SOLUTION:
PASS A TARIFF OF 5% ON ALL FOREIGN GOODS ENTERING THE US AND EARMARK THE MONEY TO ESTABLISH A SINGLE PAYER NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PLAN IN THE US.
This would:
1. Reduce a major expense for US companies, namely health insurance which is completely out of control because of the insurance and hospital lobby. Thus making "relocation" out of the US less attractive.
2. Make foreign goods more expensive...thus making "begging for mercy" from the Chinese and other Asian Tigers unnecessary thereby reducing the trade deficit and pressure on the dollar (focing higher than needed interest rates).
3. Allow the "rich" to keep their tax cuts so beloved of the Republican Kongress.
A FIVE PERCENT TARIFF COULD GO A LONG WAY IN SOLVING MANY OF THE INSOLUABLE PROBLEMS NOW FACING THE US ECONOMY...
IS THIS TYPE OF "LOGICAL SOLUTION" LIKELY TO HAPPEN...WELL, OF COURSE NOT! BUT IT'S NICE TO KNOW THAT IT'S STILL AVAILABLE NEVERTHELESS.
and the US economy is suffering from a massive and unsustainable trade deficit...
HERE'S A SOLUTION:
PASS A TARIFF OF 5% ON ALL FOREIGN GOODS ENTERING THE US AND EARMARK THE MONEY TO ESTABLISH A SINGLE PAYER NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PLAN IN THE US.
This would:
1. Reduce a major expense for US companies, namely health insurance which is completely out of control because of the insurance and hospital lobby. Thus making "relocation" out of the US less attractive.
2. Make foreign goods more expensive...thus making "begging for mercy" from the Chinese and other Asian Tigers unnecessary thereby reducing the trade deficit and pressure on the dollar (focing higher than needed interest rates).
3. Allow the "rich" to keep their tax cuts so beloved of the Republican Kongress.
A FIVE PERCENT TARIFF COULD GO A LONG WAY IN SOLVING MANY OF THE INSOLUABLE PROBLEMS NOW FACING THE US ECONOMY...
IS THIS TYPE OF "LOGICAL SOLUTION" LIKELY TO HAPPEN...WELL, OF COURSE NOT! BUT IT'S NICE TO KNOW THAT IT'S STILL AVAILABLE NEVERTHELESS.
Saturday, October 15, 2005
BANKRUPTCY MANIA...!!
Sorry Bubba,...if you haven't filed by now you're stuck with your credit card debts FOREVER, AND EVER AND EVER!
Thank your money lovin Kongress Person for that! And both parties took the banking industry's money to achieve this NEW AMERICAN DEBTOR'S PRISON.
Thank your money lovin Kongress Person for that! And both parties took the banking industry's money to achieve this NEW AMERICAN DEBTOR'S PRISON.
IRAQIS GIVE US THE PURPLE FINGER AGAIN....SHIALAND LOVES IT!
Oh God...when will it ever stop!
I mean the notion that the US invasion of Iraq would made the middle east safe for Israel's annexation of the West Bank...it just won't die...
Now Americans are fighting and dying to set up an Independant Kurdistan in the north and Islamic Shialand, a/k/a Iranian Iraq, in the South...and we're even letting them vote on it today!
Of course the result is clear, Shialand and Kurdistan want INDEPENDANCE from all of Sunni Islam...AND ALSO THE OIL MONEY TO FINANCE THEIR POLITICAL AMBITIONS IN THE REGION...
And all our former chums, The Sunnis get out of this deal is THE OSAMA TERROR TRAINING UNIVERSTIY--Baghdad Campus!
The American "role" in post-constitutional Iraq will be to assist in the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from Baghdad and the nearby provinces...but WE GOTTA GO ALONG WITH IT; or the Shia Mullahs, LIKE SISTANI, will give us the dreaded "Fatwa of Doom!" And then "failure" will be assured.
The Iranian Mullahs must be laughing in their turbans at this strange turn of events...!
And Dubya thought he was only following Sharon's instructions in Iraq and "correcting" Poppy's "mistake!" LoL...
I mean the notion that the US invasion of Iraq would made the middle east safe for Israel's annexation of the West Bank...it just won't die...
Now Americans are fighting and dying to set up an Independant Kurdistan in the north and Islamic Shialand, a/k/a Iranian Iraq, in the South...and we're even letting them vote on it today!
Of course the result is clear, Shialand and Kurdistan want INDEPENDANCE from all of Sunni Islam...AND ALSO THE OIL MONEY TO FINANCE THEIR POLITICAL AMBITIONS IN THE REGION...
And all our former chums, The Sunnis get out of this deal is THE OSAMA TERROR TRAINING UNIVERSTIY--Baghdad Campus!
The American "role" in post-constitutional Iraq will be to assist in the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis from Baghdad and the nearby provinces...but WE GOTTA GO ALONG WITH IT; or the Shia Mullahs, LIKE SISTANI, will give us the dreaded "Fatwa of Doom!" And then "failure" will be assured.
The Iranian Mullahs must be laughing in their turbans at this strange turn of events...!
And Dubya thought he was only following Sharon's instructions in Iraq and "correcting" Poppy's "mistake!" LoL...
Friday, October 14, 2005
IS BIRD FLU AND DELIBERATE 'PLOT'...
To eliminate "redundant" workers in the west who are no longer needed because of "cheap labor" in China...and who may start demanding "welfare" from the global elites?
Or are you one of those who still thinks that AIDS was an "unfortunate accident" caused by "globe-hopping gays"...
Are the usual suspects behind it? The Masons, The Templars, The Illuminati, Skull & Bones....? And "Them?"
To be continued....
Or are you one of those who still thinks that AIDS was an "unfortunate accident" caused by "globe-hopping gays"...
Are the usual suspects behind it? The Masons, The Templars, The Illuminati, Skull & Bones....? And "Them?"
To be continued....
ON LINE ADVERTISING THAT POWERFUL...?
I mean most of us don't "live on the Internet..."
And isn't the CURSE OF THE BANNER AD still fresh in the public mind?
I dont trust these ad numbers...and who reads or clicks on ads anyway...?
And isn't the CURSE OF THE BANNER AD still fresh in the public mind?
I dont trust these ad numbers...and who reads or clicks on ads anyway...?
BANKRUPTCY HORROR STORIES LOOM...
When the new bankruptcy law kicks in on Monday; the HORROR STORIES will begin...
The dirty little secret about Chapter 13, where most people will NOW be stuck, is that MOST CHAPTER 13s FAIL!
UNDER THE OLD LAW--CHAPTER 13's WHERE THEN "CONVERTED" INTO CHAPTER 7 LIQUIDATIONS...
NOW, ORDINARY WAGE EARNERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO "LIQUIDATE." IF THEY HAVE A JOB THAT PAYS A DECENT "LIVING WAGE!" AND THAT INCLUDES ALMOST ALL BANKRUPTS...BECAUSE POOR FOLK CAN'T GET CREDIT IN THE FIRST PLACE!
THIS NEW LAW IS REALLY A DEBTORS' PRISON FOR WAGE EARNERS...
AND ONCE PEOPLE REALIZE WHAT THE KONGRESS AND THE BANKS HAVE DONE TO THEM...THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY...
It is absolutely nuts to saddle wage earners with debts far in excess of their ability to pay...
MANY, IF NOT MOST, WILL LIKELY QUIT THEIR JOBS RATHER THAN WORK FOR THE BANKS...LIKE "FEEDING OATS TO THE DEAD HORSE!
LOOK FOR MANY "UNFORESEEN CONSEQUENCES" IN THE NEW LAW...AND MANY HORROR STORIES IN THE MEDIA AS THE GREED OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY KICKS IN...
CONSIDER: WILL "MINIMUM PAYMENTS" BE RAISED AFTER THE NEW LAW STARTS? HOW ABOUT MORE HUGE "PENALTIES" AND LATE FEES...
WADDA YA GONNA DO, BUBBA? ...FILE BANKRUPTCY?
YOU CAN'T!
YOU'RE AN ENDENTURED SERVANT TO THE BANKS AND CREDIT CARD COMPANIES THANKS TO THE REPUBLICAN KONGRESS!
MARK MY WORDS, THIS IS GOING TO A BE A DISASTER FOR CONSUMERS AND CONSUMER SPENDING GOING FORWARD....JUST WATCH.
The dirty little secret about Chapter 13, where most people will NOW be stuck, is that MOST CHAPTER 13s FAIL!
UNDER THE OLD LAW--CHAPTER 13's WHERE THEN "CONVERTED" INTO CHAPTER 7 LIQUIDATIONS...
NOW, ORDINARY WAGE EARNERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO "LIQUIDATE." IF THEY HAVE A JOB THAT PAYS A DECENT "LIVING WAGE!" AND THAT INCLUDES ALMOST ALL BANKRUPTS...BECAUSE POOR FOLK CAN'T GET CREDIT IN THE FIRST PLACE!
THIS NEW LAW IS REALLY A DEBTORS' PRISON FOR WAGE EARNERS...
AND ONCE PEOPLE REALIZE WHAT THE KONGRESS AND THE BANKS HAVE DONE TO THEM...THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY...
It is absolutely nuts to saddle wage earners with debts far in excess of their ability to pay...
MANY, IF NOT MOST, WILL LIKELY QUIT THEIR JOBS RATHER THAN WORK FOR THE BANKS...LIKE "FEEDING OATS TO THE DEAD HORSE!
LOOK FOR MANY "UNFORESEEN CONSEQUENCES" IN THE NEW LAW...AND MANY HORROR STORIES IN THE MEDIA AS THE GREED OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY KICKS IN...
CONSIDER: WILL "MINIMUM PAYMENTS" BE RAISED AFTER THE NEW LAW STARTS? HOW ABOUT MORE HUGE "PENALTIES" AND LATE FEES...
WADDA YA GONNA DO, BUBBA? ...FILE BANKRUPTCY?
YOU CAN'T!
YOU'RE AN ENDENTURED SERVANT TO THE BANKS AND CREDIT CARD COMPANIES THANKS TO THE REPUBLICAN KONGRESS!
MARK MY WORDS, THIS IS GOING TO A BE A DISASTER FOR CONSUMERS AND CONSUMER SPENDING GOING FORWARD....JUST WATCH.
MARKET SOARS ON CATASTROPHIC NEWS!!
A market that needs PLUNGE PROTECTION will get PLUNGE PROTECTION...
Today's news environment was a total disaster...and the future looks even worse. The retail consumer collapse is heading like a Tsunami from MAIN STREET TO WALL STREET.
BUT WHAT DOES THE MARKET DO...RALLIES LIKE CRAZY!
It was predicted here that the Wall Street Washington elites simply CAN NOT ALLOW THE DOW TO GO BELOW 10,000....AND TODAY WE SAW A MERE DOWNPAYMENT ON THAT BELIEF...
Of course there is the election in Iraq which should be on the markets mind this weekend...but Hey, WHEN YOU NEED PLUNGE PROTECTION YOU CAN BE BOTHERED BY FACTS!
Chances are the the market will bounce around in an EVER TIGHTENING RANGE...just about 10,000... Clearly, Monday will be a down day...unless the Fed Shills are willing to really spend big. But I'm expecting a RIGHT FACING PENNANT PATTERN....as the Dow pinches down to within 100 points of 10,000....
Then, at some point, there will be a break to the down side... It should also be noted that volumes have been heavy on these "distribution days" and that too is a sign that the smart money is getting out...
There is a certain desperation in the economy right now...as more and more conundrums develope short term...
Today's news environment was a total disaster...and the future looks even worse. The retail consumer collapse is heading like a Tsunami from MAIN STREET TO WALL STREET.
BUT WHAT DOES THE MARKET DO...RALLIES LIKE CRAZY!
It was predicted here that the Wall Street Washington elites simply CAN NOT ALLOW THE DOW TO GO BELOW 10,000....AND TODAY WE SAW A MERE DOWNPAYMENT ON THAT BELIEF...
Of course there is the election in Iraq which should be on the markets mind this weekend...but Hey, WHEN YOU NEED PLUNGE PROTECTION YOU CAN BE BOTHERED BY FACTS!
Chances are the the market will bounce around in an EVER TIGHTENING RANGE...just about 10,000... Clearly, Monday will be a down day...unless the Fed Shills are willing to really spend big. But I'm expecting a RIGHT FACING PENNANT PATTERN....as the Dow pinches down to within 100 points of 10,000....
Then, at some point, there will be a break to the down side... It should also be noted that volumes have been heavy on these "distribution days" and that too is a sign that the smart money is getting out...
There is a certain desperation in the economy right now...as more and more conundrums develope short term...
Thursday, October 13, 2005
DELPHI WANTS CHINESE WAGES...BUT ONLY FOR WORKERS!
How about Chinese Wages for managers and CEOs too...!
This "in your face" attitude could be the new management style in Corporate America going forward...?
Just shut up and work or we'll send your job to China!
This "in your face" attitude could be the new management style in Corporate America going forward...?
Just shut up and work or we'll send your job to China!
BIRD FLU IN EUROPE...
This might be the time for Bush to call for NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE...?
Sort of like, Nixon going to China...? Bird Flu could make the New Orleans disaster look like child's play...
Sort of like, Nixon going to China...? Bird Flu could make the New Orleans disaster look like child's play...
MASSIVE GOLD SELLOFF CREATES BUYING OPPORTUNITY
The sell off in Gold could be a buying opportunity in stocks that have run up recently...
Clearly, there is benefit for the dollar in the selloff but that won't stop the Fed from tightening during 2006. And where oil goes is anybody's guess...but down big doesn't seem to be in the cards...
This notion that the Fed can "save the world" simply by raising rates FOREVER! is a bit odd...I mean AT SOME POINT these rate hikes translate into real economic pain...especially in the housing bubble not to mention in the stock market and corporate planning arena...
The current yada-yada seems to think that higher rates are a cure all for what ails the US economy...and for a month or two that could be true.
But then..sooner or later..will kick in and that's when the real trouble starts...and indeed, it's starting already, just under the surface for those who can see it.
Clearly, there is benefit for the dollar in the selloff but that won't stop the Fed from tightening during 2006. And where oil goes is anybody's guess...but down big doesn't seem to be in the cards...
This notion that the Fed can "save the world" simply by raising rates FOREVER! is a bit odd...I mean AT SOME POINT these rate hikes translate into real economic pain...especially in the housing bubble not to mention in the stock market and corporate planning arena...
The current yada-yada seems to think that higher rates are a cure all for what ails the US economy...and for a month or two that could be true.
But then..sooner or later..will kick in and that's when the real trouble starts...and indeed, it's starting already, just under the surface for those who can see it.
IRAQ ELECTION, ANOTHER TOP GUN MOMENT FOR BUSH
This ODD notion that occasional "magic moments" constitute a valid policy
for Iraq and the middle east is a little bit nuts...
This weekend the Shia will march to the polls, as the Mullahs have instructed them to, and get their "purple fingers" yet again.... And so will the Kurds.
How many Sunnis will vote is problematic....but has anyone noticed that it just doesn't make any difference...
ESSENTIALLY THE SHIA, SUNNI, KURD AND AMERICAN "AGENDAS" IN IRAQ ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT...
THE SHIA WANT A PRO-IRANIAN ISLMAIC STATE!
THE KURDS WANT NOTHING LESS THAN INDEPENDENCE, BUT THEY MIGHT HANG AROUND FOR MORE US AID AND A CRACK AT THE NOTHERN OIL WEALTH.
AND THE SUNNI WANT NONE OF THIS.
WHILE THE AMERICANS JUST WANT A STABLE SITUATION TO "BUG OUT" AND MAYBE A FEW "NO BID" CONTRACTS IN THE OIL FIELDS...
Well, Good Luck... We will likely have another "top gun" moment this weekend...
BUT ON MONDAY IT WILL BE BUSINESS AS USUAL... BUSH'S "MISTAKE" SIMPLY WILL NOT GO AWAY.
for Iraq and the middle east is a little bit nuts...
This weekend the Shia will march to the polls, as the Mullahs have instructed them to, and get their "purple fingers" yet again.... And so will the Kurds.
How many Sunnis will vote is problematic....but has anyone noticed that it just doesn't make any difference...
ESSENTIALLY THE SHIA, SUNNI, KURD AND AMERICAN "AGENDAS" IN IRAQ ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT...
THE SHIA WANT A PRO-IRANIAN ISLMAIC STATE!
THE KURDS WANT NOTHING LESS THAN INDEPENDENCE, BUT THEY MIGHT HANG AROUND FOR MORE US AID AND A CRACK AT THE NOTHERN OIL WEALTH.
AND THE SUNNI WANT NONE OF THIS.
WHILE THE AMERICANS JUST WANT A STABLE SITUATION TO "BUG OUT" AND MAYBE A FEW "NO BID" CONTRACTS IN THE OIL FIELDS...
Well, Good Luck... We will likely have another "top gun" moment this weekend...
BUT ON MONDAY IT WILL BE BUSINESS AS USUAL... BUSH'S "MISTAKE" SIMPLY WILL NOT GO AWAY.
TRADE GAP SOARS...
It is likely that the "eventually" that Greenspan
and others have been talking about for so many years may finally occur in 2006!
Clearly, to "save the dollar" Greenspan will have to continue raising rates--ALMOST INTO THE INDEFINITE FUTURE...
THIS SEEMS TO BE THE "SECRET MESSAGE" THAT GREENSPAN AND OTHER FED MEMBERS ARE TRYING TO "TELEGRAPH" TO THE MARKETS...
"WE AIN'T GONNA STOP NO MATTER WHAT!"
Now what part of that doesn't Wall Street understand...Greenspan simply must continue raising rates "forever" to justify foreigners holding dollars...
I think a 7% yeild on the 10 year bond by the end of 2006 is "doable" AND that assume there are no catastrophic events to grease the skids...
Ultimately, the 10 year bond "should be" about 10%-11% to justify the type of economy the US has become... ONLY THAT WOULD HOLD OIL PRICES DOWN GOING FORWARD...AND ANYTHING LESS WILL BE MASSIVELY INFLATIONARY...WHILE THE AMERICAN CONSUMER IS STUCK WITH LOWER WAGES AND EVER HIGHER COSTS... To wit: a deep recession.
That alas, will be the new Fed Chairmans "conundrum" in 2006...!
and others have been talking about for so many years may finally occur in 2006!
Clearly, to "save the dollar" Greenspan will have to continue raising rates--ALMOST INTO THE INDEFINITE FUTURE...
THIS SEEMS TO BE THE "SECRET MESSAGE" THAT GREENSPAN AND OTHER FED MEMBERS ARE TRYING TO "TELEGRAPH" TO THE MARKETS...
"WE AIN'T GONNA STOP NO MATTER WHAT!"
Now what part of that doesn't Wall Street understand...Greenspan simply must continue raising rates "forever" to justify foreigners holding dollars...
I think a 7% yeild on the 10 year bond by the end of 2006 is "doable" AND that assume there are no catastrophic events to grease the skids...
Ultimately, the 10 year bond "should be" about 10%-11% to justify the type of economy the US has become... ONLY THAT WOULD HOLD OIL PRICES DOWN GOING FORWARD...AND ANYTHING LESS WILL BE MASSIVELY INFLATIONARY...WHILE THE AMERICAN CONSUMER IS STUCK WITH LOWER WAGES AND EVER HIGHER COSTS... To wit: a deep recession.
That alas, will be the new Fed Chairmans "conundrum" in 2006...!
CLOSED END FUNDS STARTING TO ROLL OVER...?
Closed End Income Funds are starting to roll over to the down-side... at last...
After spending the last two years TRAPPED IN THE CONUNDRUM...!
With the catastrophic events of 2005 GREENSPAN'S CONUNDRUM may finally be resolving itself... Of course it is nothing like the INCOME CRASH of May 2003...when the tightening cycle began... Still, My hunch is that Greenspan will have to greatly overshoot on Fed Funds to move the bond market enough...to accomplish a slowdown in the economy and in the asset inflation especially in housing.
It's really a miracle that stocks are holding up as well as they have... And when the Dow approaches 10,000 will Plunge Protection hold...? Many will buy Dow 10,100 in hopes of Plunge Protection kicking in...and it could be a self fulfilling prophesy...
But at some point the Dow will cross 10,000 yet again... This is just not a market you buy...with 2006 and all of it's disasters looming!
After spending the last two years TRAPPED IN THE CONUNDRUM...!
With the catastrophic events of 2005 GREENSPAN'S CONUNDRUM may finally be resolving itself... Of course it is nothing like the INCOME CRASH of May 2003...when the tightening cycle began... Still, My hunch is that Greenspan will have to greatly overshoot on Fed Funds to move the bond market enough...to accomplish a slowdown in the economy and in the asset inflation especially in housing.
It's really a miracle that stocks are holding up as well as they have... And when the Dow approaches 10,000 will Plunge Protection hold...? Many will buy Dow 10,100 in hopes of Plunge Protection kicking in...and it could be a self fulfilling prophesy...
But at some point the Dow will cross 10,000 yet again... This is just not a market you buy...with 2006 and all of it's disasters looming!
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
SHADES OF 1987!
Now to make this an exact replay of 1987..."THE GERMAN CENTRAL BANK" needs to raise rates!
And the last I heard...the ECB was planning to do just that!
SAME GAME...DIFFERENT NAMES...SHADES OF 1987....?
Stay tuned....
And the last I heard...the ECB was planning to do just that!
SAME GAME...DIFFERENT NAMES...SHADES OF 1987....?
Stay tuned....
TECH WRECK REDUX....
Shades of 2000 in the Nazz.... So what? All of a sudden Reality counts for something?
DEAR GEORGE LETTER...
Dear George:
Sorry things are turning out so badly. Especially in Iraq... Perhaps you should do what I do when things start going seriously haywire... Try: THE BEER BREAKFAST! Two forty ouncers for breakfast makes the day go better...or it seems too anyway. Honest!
But make sure to avoid pretzels and "optional wars."
Yours Truly,
Gloom and Doom Report.
P.S....If your already on the Beer Breakfast please disregard this letter!
Sorry things are turning out so badly. Especially in Iraq... Perhaps you should do what I do when things start going seriously haywire... Try: THE BEER BREAKFAST! Two forty ouncers for breakfast makes the day go better...or it seems too anyway. Honest!
But make sure to avoid pretzels and "optional wars."
Yours Truly,
Gloom and Doom Report.
P.S....If your already on the Beer Breakfast please disregard this letter!
MARKETS STUCK IN 'DISTRIBUTION' MODE...
Even while bonds are still down...and oil is up. This thing could break open at anytime...TO THE DOWNSIDE.
Alas, Plunge Protection is the only thing stopping a break below Dow 10,000 now.
Alas, Plunge Protection is the only thing stopping a break below Dow 10,000 now.
I-POD FAD ENDING...?
I never have believed in Apple...
Although my first computer was one! Then came Windows and the rest is history...
This I-Pod thing has ALL the earmarks of a fad... And I never have figured out what people do with "10,000 songs" on their computer or I-Pod! I mean 200 0r 300 would be more than enough... Don't Ya suppose? At some point it's just hoarding and overkill...and that leads to BOREDOM real fast...and that is the kiss of death for any fad!
Although my first computer was one! Then came Windows and the rest is history...
This I-Pod thing has ALL the earmarks of a fad... And I never have figured out what people do with "10,000 songs" on their computer or I-Pod! I mean 200 0r 300 would be more than enough... Don't Ya suppose? At some point it's just hoarding and overkill...and that leads to BOREDOM real fast...and that is the kiss of death for any fad!
BUSH CRYS WOLF....THEN LAUGHS IT OFF...?
As Bloomberg and NYC pick up the tab
for this DHS "publicity stunt" to prove that Dubya is STILL: "He who keeps us safe." Even as support for the war plumetts and Dubya's "approval rating" is swirling in the toilet...
for this DHS "publicity stunt" to prove that Dubya is STILL: "He who keeps us safe." Even as support for the war plumetts and Dubya's "approval rating" is swirling in the toilet...
GREENSPAN SPEAKS...LEGACY OF HYPER-INFLATION
Greenspan is still trying to cover his tracks on his "legacy" --
OF LOOTING AND ASSET INFLATION FOR THE RICH...
Basically Greenspan took the world's strongest economy in 1987 and through Fed policy allowed the Cult of the CEO and the Wall Street elites to loot and pillage until today the US economy is a debt ridden wreck barely able to support itself without the help of the Communist Chinese...
In the process the US was DEINDUSTRIALIZED to avoid the power of domestic unions... And massive amounts of "liquidity" were provide to Wall Street and International Capital to give the "illusion" of growth where nothing but asset inflation was occuring...
Now Greenspan will leave the Fed and the US economy is a mere shadow of it's former self. China is the new industrial powerhouse.
Euroland has detached itself from the dollar...and struck out on its own with the Euro. And massive debt and bond holdings by foreigners are the only thing holding up the American Consumer...most of whom are now stuck with massive credit card debt that will soon be non-dischargable in bankruptcy.
GREENSPAN WAS THE GREATEST HYPER-INFLATIONIST OF ALL TIME...AS HISTORY WILL SHOW. TRUE, HIS HYPER-INFLATION WAS ALMOST TOTALLY IN THE AREA OF "ASSET INFLATION."
BUT INFLATION IS INFLATION IS INFLATION...NONE THE LESS...
Very likely the US economy will never recover from the GREEDSPAN YEARS!
OF LOOTING AND ASSET INFLATION FOR THE RICH...
Basically Greenspan took the world's strongest economy in 1987 and through Fed policy allowed the Cult of the CEO and the Wall Street elites to loot and pillage until today the US economy is a debt ridden wreck barely able to support itself without the help of the Communist Chinese...
In the process the US was DEINDUSTRIALIZED to avoid the power of domestic unions... And massive amounts of "liquidity" were provide to Wall Street and International Capital to give the "illusion" of growth where nothing but asset inflation was occuring...
Now Greenspan will leave the Fed and the US economy is a mere shadow of it's former self. China is the new industrial powerhouse.
Euroland has detached itself from the dollar...and struck out on its own with the Euro. And massive debt and bond holdings by foreigners are the only thing holding up the American Consumer...most of whom are now stuck with massive credit card debt that will soon be non-dischargable in bankruptcy.
GREENSPAN WAS THE GREATEST HYPER-INFLATIONIST OF ALL TIME...AS HISTORY WILL SHOW. TRUE, HIS HYPER-INFLATION WAS ALMOST TOTALLY IN THE AREA OF "ASSET INFLATION."
BUT INFLATION IS INFLATION IS INFLATION...NONE THE LESS...
Very likely the US economy will never recover from the GREEDSPAN YEARS!
Tuesday, October 11, 2005
DELPHI CEO PUTS VOODOO CURSE ON GM...?
Miller's comments about the future of GM seem a bit odd... Ya think...? Or is he telegraphing something....??
OIL UP, BOND DOWN...MARKETS CONFUSED
As the marekts wallow around trying to find
the next HYPE-POINT on which to "rally" the BATTLE FOR DOW 10,000 must be in the back of everyone's mind...
The market simply can not afford to let the Dow drop below 10,000 for fear of "what lies beneath..." Could a break of 10,000 be met with widespread program and stop-loss selling... Of course, there is always Plunge Protection, BUT WILL THEY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FLOAT?
My hunch is that the economy will simply keep adding "straws" to the camel's back...Until the LAST STRAW...the one that breaks the camel's back is added...
And it will all seem so sudden and unexpected.
the next HYPE-POINT on which to "rally" the BATTLE FOR DOW 10,000 must be in the back of everyone's mind...
The market simply can not afford to let the Dow drop below 10,000 for fear of "what lies beneath..." Could a break of 10,000 be met with widespread program and stop-loss selling... Of course, there is always Plunge Protection, BUT WILL THEY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE FLOAT?
My hunch is that the economy will simply keep adding "straws" to the camel's back...Until the LAST STRAW...the one that breaks the camel's back is added...
And it will all seem so sudden and unexpected.
SONG AND DANCE NATION....?
With the demise of the auto industry in the US...what exactly does America still do?
OK we consume...or, at least, we did when we could afford it. Now we go to the dollar store and the thrift shops... I mean the ones within walking distance since no one can afford to drive anymore with high gas prices.
America also WAS the ENTERTAINMENT CAPITAL of the world...movies, music, singing and dancing... Sometimes I think that when our Chinese Money Masters walk up onto the beaches in California--we'll all be there singing and dancing...Hey, dude, wanna beer!
But with the new technologies of the computer and Internet EVEN American dominance of the entertainment industry may start to wane...
Music and Multimedia productions can now be done at the local level that have the ability to equal full scale Hollywood production techniques.
So, instead of Russians and Asians watching and listening to American Movies and American Music...there is now the capability to produce and consume high quality local and regional content...content that fits in with the mores and attitudes of the local and regional culture...
We already see "born agains" in the US producing their own branded content...that avoids the "immorality" of the evil left coast.
And with new computerized media capability we could see more "BOLLYWOODS" all around the world.
Another arugment for the demise of SONG AND DANCE AMERICA is that America and Americans are no longer respected in the world...indeed, it seems that America is hated in more places than ever... So, why would these people even want to see or listen to American content...? Well, probably they don't and likely they won't in a few years...
America's unique place in 20th Century culture was its dream of a middle class life. But now even that is dying fast. Foreign audiences don't need to see stories about the American greedy rich...THEY HAVE THEIR OWN GREEDY ELITES!
What made America different in the 20th Century was THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS...! THAT'S WHAT FOREIGN AUDIENCES FOUND FASINATING ABOUT AMERICAN MOVIES AND MEDIA CONTENT...
BUT, WITH THE DEMISE OF THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS...AND THE GLOBALIZATION OF THE INTERNET AND COMPUTERIZED PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES...THE WORLD DOESN'T HAVE TO LOOK TO AMERICANS FOR THEIR MIDDLE CLASS DIVERSIONS AND DREAMLANDS ANYMORE...
THANKS TO WALL STREET AND WASHINGTON THE CURTAIN HAS COME DOWN ON AMERICA AS A PLACE THE WORLD ASPIRES TO FOR IT'S MIDDLE CLASS DREAMS... TODAY, AMERICA IS "JUST" ONE OF CHINA'S BIGGEST CUSTOMERS...with alas, questional credit to boot!
SO, AMERICANS CAN STILL SING AND DANCE...BUT WILL ANYONE BE WATCHING?
I DON'T THINK ANYONE WILL REALLY CARE....
OK we consume...or, at least, we did when we could afford it. Now we go to the dollar store and the thrift shops... I mean the ones within walking distance since no one can afford to drive anymore with high gas prices.
America also WAS the ENTERTAINMENT CAPITAL of the world...movies, music, singing and dancing... Sometimes I think that when our Chinese Money Masters walk up onto the beaches in California--we'll all be there singing and dancing...Hey, dude, wanna beer!
But with the new technologies of the computer and Internet EVEN American dominance of the entertainment industry may start to wane...
Music and Multimedia productions can now be done at the local level that have the ability to equal full scale Hollywood production techniques.
So, instead of Russians and Asians watching and listening to American Movies and American Music...there is now the capability to produce and consume high quality local and regional content...content that fits in with the mores and attitudes of the local and regional culture...
We already see "born agains" in the US producing their own branded content...that avoids the "immorality" of the evil left coast.
And with new computerized media capability we could see more "BOLLYWOODS" all around the world.
Another arugment for the demise of SONG AND DANCE AMERICA is that America and Americans are no longer respected in the world...indeed, it seems that America is hated in more places than ever... So, why would these people even want to see or listen to American content...? Well, probably they don't and likely they won't in a few years...
America's unique place in 20th Century culture was its dream of a middle class life. But now even that is dying fast. Foreign audiences don't need to see stories about the American greedy rich...THEY HAVE THEIR OWN GREEDY ELITES!
What made America different in the 20th Century was THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS...! THAT'S WHAT FOREIGN AUDIENCES FOUND FASINATING ABOUT AMERICAN MOVIES AND MEDIA CONTENT...
BUT, WITH THE DEMISE OF THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS...AND THE GLOBALIZATION OF THE INTERNET AND COMPUTERIZED PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES...THE WORLD DOESN'T HAVE TO LOOK TO AMERICANS FOR THEIR MIDDLE CLASS DIVERSIONS AND DREAMLANDS ANYMORE...
THANKS TO WALL STREET AND WASHINGTON THE CURTAIN HAS COME DOWN ON AMERICA AS A PLACE THE WORLD ASPIRES TO FOR IT'S MIDDLE CLASS DREAMS... TODAY, AMERICA IS "JUST" ONE OF CHINA'S BIGGEST CUSTOMERS...with alas, questional credit to boot!
SO, AMERICANS CAN STILL SING AND DANCE...BUT WILL ANYONE BE WATCHING?
I DON'T THINK ANYONE WILL REALLY CARE....
Monday, October 10, 2005
THE SMALL BUSINESS MYTH...
Among the several BIG LIES being floated by Washington and Wall Street these days
is the one that claims small business is the "powerhouse of job creation" in the US economy.
While small businesses may "create" many "jobs," they are mostly low wage, no benefit and very very unstable...
In truth, the backbone of the American Middle Class was the LARGE COMPANY JOB with health insurance and benefits... Not these pitiful parttime and temporary jobs that small business can afford.
Most small business fail...often shortly after opening. Main Street is always filled with businesses that are opening and closing in rapid order...usually after about the third rent payment comes due...
The fact is that small businesses have a hard time competing with the likes of Walmart and MickyD's, and the other Big Box Stores and national "catagory killers" at the malls.
Indeed, many, even most, small business are started by PEOPLE WHO CAN'T FIND A REAL JOB THEMSELVES! They never tell you about that!
Many corporate refugees from the ranks of middle management will buy or start a business with their "severance packages" in hopes of being able to stay out of the corporate rat race.
I know of one business broker who says that most of his clients are redundant middle managers who say: NEVER AGAIN WILL "THEY" DO THAT TO ME... As they seek their futures as indepentant small business people... Well Good Luck.
Even a few years ago, before Bush and the Republicans trashed the economy, some of these corporate refugees might "make it."
But now...with the American middle class vanishing; and with high gas prices stranding many shopppers at home with maxed out credit cards...things are getting really bad.
SMALL BUSINESS ARE GOING OUT OF BUSINESS ALL OVER THE PLACE...
MAIN STREET COMMERICAL REAL ESTATE IS A REVOLVING DOOR, WITH "NEW BUSINESSES" DESPERATELY TRYING TO MAKE IT..AND USUALLY FAILING WITHIN THE FIRST FEW MONTHS....AS THE LOCAL ECONOMY AND BUSINESS OVERHEAD CLOSE IN AROUND THEM.
The point is these desperate boomers who are starting businesses as an attempt to flee their downsizing large company jobs are mostly doomed to fail...
And any "employees" they do hire will be back on the unemployment lines within months.
Indeed, this reminds me of those "apple sellers" during the depression...who were so desperate for money that they quit looking for jobs that didn't exist, and started selling apples on the street corners!
SMALL BUSINESS MEN...ONE AND ALL!! 1930's REDUX...?
is the one that claims small business is the "powerhouse of job creation" in the US economy.
While small businesses may "create" many "jobs," they are mostly low wage, no benefit and very very unstable...
In truth, the backbone of the American Middle Class was the LARGE COMPANY JOB with health insurance and benefits... Not these pitiful parttime and temporary jobs that small business can afford.
Most small business fail...often shortly after opening. Main Street is always filled with businesses that are opening and closing in rapid order...usually after about the third rent payment comes due...
The fact is that small businesses have a hard time competing with the likes of Walmart and MickyD's, and the other Big Box Stores and national "catagory killers" at the malls.
Indeed, many, even most, small business are started by PEOPLE WHO CAN'T FIND A REAL JOB THEMSELVES! They never tell you about that!
Many corporate refugees from the ranks of middle management will buy or start a business with their "severance packages" in hopes of being able to stay out of the corporate rat race.
I know of one business broker who says that most of his clients are redundant middle managers who say: NEVER AGAIN WILL "THEY" DO THAT TO ME... As they seek their futures as indepentant small business people... Well Good Luck.
Even a few years ago, before Bush and the Republicans trashed the economy, some of these corporate refugees might "make it."
But now...with the American middle class vanishing; and with high gas prices stranding many shopppers at home with maxed out credit cards...things are getting really bad.
SMALL BUSINESS ARE GOING OUT OF BUSINESS ALL OVER THE PLACE...
MAIN STREET COMMERICAL REAL ESTATE IS A REVOLVING DOOR, WITH "NEW BUSINESSES" DESPERATELY TRYING TO MAKE IT..AND USUALLY FAILING WITHIN THE FIRST FEW MONTHS....AS THE LOCAL ECONOMY AND BUSINESS OVERHEAD CLOSE IN AROUND THEM.
The point is these desperate boomers who are starting businesses as an attempt to flee their downsizing large company jobs are mostly doomed to fail...
And any "employees" they do hire will be back on the unemployment lines within months.
Indeed, this reminds me of those "apple sellers" during the depression...who were so desperate for money that they quit looking for jobs that didn't exist, and started selling apples on the street corners!
SMALL BUSINESS MEN...ONE AND ALL!! 1930's REDUX...?
AMERICAN AUTO INDUSTRY: 1905-2005...RIP
The American Auto industry
used to be THE ONE industry Americans would protect to the end...Autos were the "line in the sand" for foreign competition...
Good Bye Steel. Good Bye consumer electronics. Good Bye textiles. Americans were going to sing and dance and make cars FOREEVER!
Well, with the demise of Delphi and with GM and Ford on the ropes...we better make that only sing and dance; because America is on the verge of being COMPLETELY DEINDUSTRIALIZED...
Of course none of this gets much press outside of DETROIT...but still it's
RIP AMERICAN AUTO INDUSTRY: 1905-2005...RIP... It's over...
used to be THE ONE industry Americans would protect to the end...Autos were the "line in the sand" for foreign competition...
Good Bye Steel. Good Bye consumer electronics. Good Bye textiles. Americans were going to sing and dance and make cars FOREEVER!
Well, with the demise of Delphi and with GM and Ford on the ropes...we better make that only sing and dance; because America is on the verge of being COMPLETELY DEINDUSTRIALIZED...
Of course none of this gets much press outside of DETROIT...but still it's
RIP AMERICAN AUTO INDUSTRY: 1905-2005...RIP... It's over...
Sunday, October 9, 2005
THE DELPHI MODEL: The road to bankrupt America!
The huge Delphi Bankruptcy may become a model
for all other "legacy" American companies that are "stuck with" unions and defined benefit pensions...
Delphi's "final offer" to the UAW was a 65% pay and benefits cut...essentially making living wage industrial jobs into Mickey D's jobs OVERNIGHT!!
If the Delphi model is adopted by other big companies...CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES "en masse" could ensue...
Why not Ford, GM,...or P&G, or GE?
Or, any of the other big LEGACY Corporations from the old PRE-FREE TRADE DAYS,...when a union and a living wage were considered "rights" by American workers...?
TODAY MIGHT BE A WATERSHED EVENT...THE DELPHI BANKRUPTCY IS NOT JUST ANOTHER BUSINESS NEWS STORY...IT COULD BE THE START OF CRUNCH TIME IN CORPORATE AMERICA, AND ON MAIN STREET AND WALL STREET...
EITHER WE LET INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL BANKRUPT THE US ECONOMY AND PAUPERIZE AMERICAN WORKERS...
OR WE DRAW A LINE IN THE SAND AND FIGHT...AND SAY WE ARE NOT CHINA! ...AND IF YOU WANT TO PLAY IN OUR MARKETS YOU MUST PAY A LIVING WAGE...
VERY LIKELY THIS "CRISIS" IN AMERICAN BUSINESS WILL CONTINUE--UNTIL THE FREE TRADE MONKEY IS RIPPED OFF OUR BACKS...
AND THE US KONGRESS FORGETS ABOUT THE IMPERIAL MILITARY BUDGET...AND STARTS THINKING LIKE EUROLAND AND PROTECTING IT'S WORKERS AND IT'S MARKETS... ASAP.
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE AND INSURANCE REFORM WOULD BE A GOOD PLACE TO START...
IT MIGHT GIVE THE "LEGACY" COMPANIES SOME BREATHING ROOM VIS-A-VIS THEIR SOCIALIST AND COMMUNIST "COMPETITORS" WHO ARE EATING THEIR LUNCH EVERYDAY IN THE MARKET PLACE.
Could this be the "Oracle of Delph" marking the end of American Industrial power?
for all other "legacy" American companies that are "stuck with" unions and defined benefit pensions...
Delphi's "final offer" to the UAW was a 65% pay and benefits cut...essentially making living wage industrial jobs into Mickey D's jobs OVERNIGHT!!
If the Delphi model is adopted by other big companies...CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES "en masse" could ensue...
Why not Ford, GM,...or P&G, or GE?
Or, any of the other big LEGACY Corporations from the old PRE-FREE TRADE DAYS,...when a union and a living wage were considered "rights" by American workers...?
TODAY MIGHT BE A WATERSHED EVENT...THE DELPHI BANKRUPTCY IS NOT JUST ANOTHER BUSINESS NEWS STORY...IT COULD BE THE START OF CRUNCH TIME IN CORPORATE AMERICA, AND ON MAIN STREET AND WALL STREET...
EITHER WE LET INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL BANKRUPT THE US ECONOMY AND PAUPERIZE AMERICAN WORKERS...
OR WE DRAW A LINE IN THE SAND AND FIGHT...AND SAY WE ARE NOT CHINA! ...AND IF YOU WANT TO PLAY IN OUR MARKETS YOU MUST PAY A LIVING WAGE...
VERY LIKELY THIS "CRISIS" IN AMERICAN BUSINESS WILL CONTINUE--UNTIL THE FREE TRADE MONKEY IS RIPPED OFF OUR BACKS...
AND THE US KONGRESS FORGETS ABOUT THE IMPERIAL MILITARY BUDGET...AND STARTS THINKING LIKE EUROLAND AND PROTECTING IT'S WORKERS AND IT'S MARKETS... ASAP.
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE AND INSURANCE REFORM WOULD BE A GOOD PLACE TO START...
IT MIGHT GIVE THE "LEGACY" COMPANIES SOME BREATHING ROOM VIS-A-VIS THEIR SOCIALIST AND COMMUNIST "COMPETITORS" WHO ARE EATING THEIR LUNCH EVERYDAY IN THE MARKET PLACE.
Could this be the "Oracle of Delph" marking the end of American Industrial power?
Saturday, October 8, 2005
SHOULD LIBERALS BE 'FUNNY...?'
Perhaps not? ....Consider:
Why is it that liberals can only be funny... and conservatives only be angry? (You won, get over it! LOL!)
Wassupwitdat?
First liberals are often more intelligent than conservatives, and more capable of appreciating humor.
Whereas conservatives are always keen to think some people are "making fun of them."
Also, liberals have the option of being totally PC in their humor because it's still OK to make fun of "holier than thou" types, the rich and powerful, and stupid white people on AM hate radio.
Conservatives, on the other hand, would be completely un-PC joking about handicapped people, blacks, gays and other minorities or poor folks...
Still, this leaves the false impression that liberals "aren't really serious" and somehow conservatives are!
Liberal humor might be "read" as meaning that they "don't really care" about their key issues.
...50 million uninsured...ha,ha,ha!
...Living wage jobs going to China...ho,ho,ho!
...Government corruption and lies...heh,heh,heh!
Wedge issues like gays and womens rights are dividing the nation! Oh stop, your kill' me! lol!
SO, THE SELF-RIGHTEOUS REPUBLCIAN HYPOCRITES ARE ALLOWED TO THINK THAT THEY ARE THE ONLY "SERIOUS ONES" ...AND THE REST OF US ARE JUST WAITING FOR OUR WELFARE CHECKS! ...LOL!
ARE LIBERALS SO "DANGEROUS" THAT, LIKE SHAKESPERE'S "FOOL," THEY MUST ALWAYS COUCH THEIR COMMENTARY AS HUMOR...?
ARE THE ELITES SO INSECURE IN THEIR POLITICS THAT LIBERALS ARE TOLERATED ONLY IF THEY "PLAY THE FOOL?" (...Ala Ross Perot...?)
If so, we may be on the verge of a major political sea change BECAUSE...humor becomes satire, then sarcasem which morphs into policy...and then alas politics.
So should liberals be "funny"...? Well maybe for a little while longer... But then...things have to start getting serious.
Postscript: The Republicans are starting to wear the "fools cap" lately...perhaps the switch is starting already?
HOW CAN LIBERALS BE "FUNNY" WHEN CONSERVATIVES ARE ALWAYS ANGRY...?
Why is it that liberals can only be funny... and conservatives only be angry? (You won, get over it! LOL!)
Wassupwitdat?
First liberals are often more intelligent than conservatives, and more capable of appreciating humor.
Whereas conservatives are always keen to think some people are "making fun of them."
Also, liberals have the option of being totally PC in their humor because it's still OK to make fun of "holier than thou" types, the rich and powerful, and stupid white people on AM hate radio.
Conservatives, on the other hand, would be completely un-PC joking about handicapped people, blacks, gays and other minorities or poor folks...
Still, this leaves the false impression that liberals "aren't really serious" and somehow conservatives are!
Liberal humor might be "read" as meaning that they "don't really care" about their key issues.
...50 million uninsured...ha,ha,ha!
...Living wage jobs going to China...ho,ho,ho!
...Government corruption and lies...heh,heh,heh!
Wedge issues like gays and womens rights are dividing the nation! Oh stop, your kill' me! lol!
SO, THE SELF-RIGHTEOUS REPUBLCIAN HYPOCRITES ARE ALLOWED TO THINK THAT THEY ARE THE ONLY "SERIOUS ONES" ...AND THE REST OF US ARE JUST WAITING FOR OUR WELFARE CHECKS! ...LOL!
ARE LIBERALS SO "DANGEROUS" THAT, LIKE SHAKESPERE'S "FOOL," THEY MUST ALWAYS COUCH THEIR COMMENTARY AS HUMOR...?
ARE THE ELITES SO INSECURE IN THEIR POLITICS THAT LIBERALS ARE TOLERATED ONLY IF THEY "PLAY THE FOOL?" (...Ala Ross Perot...?)
If so, we may be on the verge of a major political sea change BECAUSE...humor becomes satire, then sarcasem which morphs into policy...and then alas politics.
So should liberals be "funny"...? Well maybe for a little while longer... But then...things have to start getting serious.
Postscript: The Republicans are starting to wear the "fools cap" lately...perhaps the switch is starting already?
HOW CAN LIBERALS BE "FUNNY" WHEN CONSERVATIVES ARE ALWAYS ANGRY...?
DEATH IN THE ICU...or THE TRUTH ABOUT ASSISTED SUICIDE
The problem of assisted suicide may not be as big in reality as it seems in the courts...
As a rule terminally ill patients are given morphine in the ICUs of America to "keep them comfortable" and also to relieve the nursing staff of constantly watching patients who are in considerable discomfort.
Most terminally ill patients are "entubated" in some way...often there are multiple entubations...ventilators, catheters, IVs, gastro-feeding tubes, etc. Sedated patients will often try to yank out their entubations if they are in discomfort...so it is common to give them morphine to "keep them quiet."
Morphine of course is very powerful as a pain killer and it also induces a sense of well-being...so much so that it will destroy the "personality" of the patient recieving it. Generally, people in morphine comas are feeling nothing...
And eventually morphine can be fatal... Many terminally ill people "exit the world" with the help of morphine...so in a sense we already have a "working protocol" for "assisted suicide" in the ICU facilities today!
I sense that what terminally ill patients really want in "assisted suicide" is a feeling of "control." While still conscious and not sedated, it can be very frightening for patients to think that they are completely out of control of whats happening to them. Some could "choose" to end their suffering before the use of morphine becomes necessary... But in many cases...those last days of lucid conscieousness are to precious to let go of...
And once the morphine starts...it's pretty much over anyway...there is no "person" left to suffer.
So, in truth, we already have "assisted suicide" in the Hospitals today... It's called Morphine.
As a rule terminally ill patients are given morphine in the ICUs of America to "keep them comfortable" and also to relieve the nursing staff of constantly watching patients who are in considerable discomfort.
Most terminally ill patients are "entubated" in some way...often there are multiple entubations...ventilators, catheters, IVs, gastro-feeding tubes, etc. Sedated patients will often try to yank out their entubations if they are in discomfort...so it is common to give them morphine to "keep them quiet."
Morphine of course is very powerful as a pain killer and it also induces a sense of well-being...so much so that it will destroy the "personality" of the patient recieving it. Generally, people in morphine comas are feeling nothing...
And eventually morphine can be fatal... Many terminally ill people "exit the world" with the help of morphine...so in a sense we already have a "working protocol" for "assisted suicide" in the ICU facilities today!
I sense that what terminally ill patients really want in "assisted suicide" is a feeling of "control." While still conscious and not sedated, it can be very frightening for patients to think that they are completely out of control of whats happening to them. Some could "choose" to end their suffering before the use of morphine becomes necessary... But in many cases...those last days of lucid conscieousness are to precious to let go of...
And once the morphine starts...it's pretty much over anyway...there is no "person" left to suffer.
So, in truth, we already have "assisted suicide" in the Hospitals today... It's called Morphine.
Friday, October 7, 2005
HUGE DROP IN RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY EMPLOYMENT...!
THE KEY NUMBERS FROM BLS FOR SEPTEMBER...
Nonfarm employment....... 133,429p133,994 133,865p134,076p134,041 p-35
Goods-producing(1)..... 22,134 p22,148 22,134 p22,154 p22,155 p1
Construction......... 7,217 p7,261 7,235 p7,262 p7,285 p23
Manufacturing........ 14,292 p14,255 14,270 p14,261 p14,234 p-27
Service-providing(1)... 111,295p111,846 111,731p111,922p111,886 p-36
Retail trade(2)...... 15,180 p15,230 15,249 p15,265 p15,177 p-88
Professional and
business services.. 16,867 p17,007 16,964 p17,002 p17,054 p52
Education and health
services........... 17,289 p17,427 17,377 p17,427 p17,476 p49
Leisure and
hospitality........ 12,741 p12,799 12,801 p12,838 p12,758 p-80
Government........... 21,753 p21,845 21,817 p21,843 p21,874 p31
HUGE HUGE DROP IN RETAIL EMPLOYMENT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR CONSUMER SPENDING IN THE FUTURE... AND CONSUMER SPENDING WE ARE TOLD IS 2/3s OF THE ECONOMY IN THE US.
FURTHERMORE, THE "INCREASES" IN GOVERNMENT, BUSINESS SERVICES (TEMPS), AND HEALTH AND EDUCATION SEEM BLOATED...
MANFACTURING ALSO TOOK A BIG HIT WITH 27,000 JOBS LOST...HOW MANY MANUFACTURING JOBS ARE LEFT TO CUT!! DISMAL BY ANY MEASURE...
Nonfarm employment....... 133,429p133,994 133,865p134,076p134,041 p-35
Goods-producing(1)..... 22,134 p22,148 22,134 p22,154 p22,155 p1
Construction......... 7,217 p7,261 7,235 p7,262 p7,285 p23
Manufacturing........ 14,292 p14,255 14,270 p14,261 p14,234 p-27
Service-providing(1)... 111,295p111,846 111,731p111,922p111,886 p-36
Retail trade(2)...... 15,180 p15,230 15,249 p15,265 p15,177 p-88
Professional and
business services.. 16,867 p17,007 16,964 p17,002 p17,054 p52
Education and health
services........... 17,289 p17,427 17,377 p17,427 p17,476 p49
Leisure and
hospitality........ 12,741 p12,799 12,801 p12,838 p12,758 p-80
Government........... 21,753 p21,845 21,817 p21,843 p21,874 p31
HUGE HUGE DROP IN RETAIL EMPLOYMENT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD FOR CONSUMER SPENDING IN THE FUTURE... AND CONSUMER SPENDING WE ARE TOLD IS 2/3s OF THE ECONOMY IN THE US.
FURTHERMORE, THE "INCREASES" IN GOVERNMENT, BUSINESS SERVICES (TEMPS), AND HEALTH AND EDUCATION SEEM BLOATED...
MANFACTURING ALSO TOOK A BIG HIT WITH 27,000 JOBS LOST...HOW MANY MANUFACTURING JOBS ARE LEFT TO CUT!! DISMAL BY ANY MEASURE...
BUSH CRIES WOLF....AGAIN!!
With his Presidency spiraling in the toilet of public opinion;
...and with the Triumphant Egghead, Carl Rove, more concerned about the problem of prison rape...Dubya did the most obvious, yet irrational thing he could have done...
He raised the terror threat in NYC..!
The gambit that worked so well during the 2004 election bid against John Kerry...
Indeed, Bush's "major speech", was supposed to sound "Churchhillian"..."We will fight them on the beaches. We will fight them in the cities..."
But it came off as a little bit crackpot!
Now, we learn that the BBC has proof that Dubya thinks he's "getting messages from God!"
And Bush's bizarre demands for "total victory" raises the prospect of further expansion of the Iraq/Afganistan debacle throughout the middle east... Alas, Dubya could be falling into the Hitlerian Mindset...if you're going to lose anyway, Lose Big!
CLEARLY, THE ADMINISTRATION IS GETTING VERY, VERY DESPERATE... SOMETHING MUST BE DONE TO TURN THINGS AROUND?.... BUT GOING BACK TO THE "TERRORISM WELL" AT THIS TIME WAS THE WRONG WAY TO HANDLE MATTERS. IT ONLY MAKES THE DESPERATE NATURE OF DUBYA'S PROBLEMS MORE OBVIOUS; AND AS THE NYT SAYS, "INFURIATING."
How this ends is anybody's guess...things are clearly out of control in Washington, and the economy is in the tank with high gas prices and higher interest rates combined.
SO BUSH CRIES WOLF YET AGAIN....
No wonder Wolfie and the other Neocons have deserted the White House "en masse!"
A very sad condition indeed.
...and with the Triumphant Egghead, Carl Rove, more concerned about the problem of prison rape...Dubya did the most obvious, yet irrational thing he could have done...
He raised the terror threat in NYC..!
The gambit that worked so well during the 2004 election bid against John Kerry...
Indeed, Bush's "major speech", was supposed to sound "Churchhillian"..."We will fight them on the beaches. We will fight them in the cities..."
But it came off as a little bit crackpot!
Now, we learn that the BBC has proof that Dubya thinks he's "getting messages from God!"
And Bush's bizarre demands for "total victory" raises the prospect of further expansion of the Iraq/Afganistan debacle throughout the middle east... Alas, Dubya could be falling into the Hitlerian Mindset...if you're going to lose anyway, Lose Big!
CLEARLY, THE ADMINISTRATION IS GETTING VERY, VERY DESPERATE... SOMETHING MUST BE DONE TO TURN THINGS AROUND?.... BUT GOING BACK TO THE "TERRORISM WELL" AT THIS TIME WAS THE WRONG WAY TO HANDLE MATTERS. IT ONLY MAKES THE DESPERATE NATURE OF DUBYA'S PROBLEMS MORE OBVIOUS; AND AS THE NYT SAYS, "INFURIATING."
How this ends is anybody's guess...things are clearly out of control in Washington, and the economy is in the tank with high gas prices and higher interest rates combined.
SO BUSH CRIES WOLF YET AGAIN....
No wonder Wolfie and the other Neocons have deserted the White House "en masse!"
A very sad condition indeed.
Thursday, October 6, 2005
PLUNGE PROTECTION TO THE RESCUE...?
Today's market end was so fake...if you need proof of PLUNGE PROTECTION read this chart! lol....kinda sad really...but everyone is so "invested" in this market what can Washington and Wall Street do?
Remember the BATTLE FOR DOW 10,000 is not over yet... this could be very interesting before the month is over!
Hmmm...and the JOBS REPORT TOMORROW TOO.... INTERESTING?
READ IT HERE...AND WEEP OR....?
Remember the BATTLE FOR DOW 10,000 is not over yet... this could be very interesting before the month is over!
Hmmm...and the JOBS REPORT TOMORROW TOO.... INTERESTING?
READ IT HERE...AND WEEP OR....?
BIG OCTOBER CRASH...REDUX?
It's October...you do remember what October means in the stock market...?
It's the month of BIG STOCK MARKET CRASHES...
At least it used to be...that is to older investors anyway...but then came the NEW ERA...and OCTOBER BECAME FUN! JUST ANOTHER UP MONTH FOR STOCKS...
EVERYONE HAS FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE GREAT OCTOBER STOCK MARKET CRASHES OF THE PAST, ala 1929 and 1987...
Hey, why worry, Greenspan has it all under control...and he would never do anything to hurt the markets or his chums on The Street... Yeah, well that was then and this is now...
IT MAY BE TIME TO RELEARN WHY OCTOBER WAS ALWAYS SO BAD IN THE PAST...
FOR OPENERS...OCTOBER IS THE START OF THE LAST QUARTER OF THE YEAR, WHEN SERIOUS INVESTORS START THINKING ABOUT---NEXT YEAR!
ALSO OCTOBER IS THE TIME WHEN ALL THOSE PREDICTIONS BY COMPANIES ARE PUT TO THE FINAL TEST...WILL THEY "MAKE" THERE ANNUAL NUMBERS, OR NOT?
This October has all of the ear marks of a BIG CRASH MONTH...
INTEREST RATES ARE GOING UP...NOT TO SLOW THE ECONOMY BUT TO SUPPORT THE DOLLAR AND STOP THE RELATED RISE IN OIL, WHICH IS "PRICED" IN DOLLARS... A STRONGER DOLLAR "MEANS" CHEAPER OIL, ETC...
Greenspan simply can not afford to quit raising rates now...the budget deficit, the trade deficits and the weak dollar simply won't let him! And of course, the Bank of China has a lot of "input" these days too!
Additionally, the market is still MASSIVELY OVERPRICED...historically speaking. In the 1929 debacle, a P/E of 20 was considered very expensive... Today a P/E of 20 "seems normal!" That will be ending soon...as we revert to REAL HISTORY...NOT THE FAKE HISTORY OF THE 1990's where the distortions of the bubble became the norm.
In short;
HIGHER RATES + HIGHER OIL + HIGH DEBT AND THE TWIN DEFICITS = AN OLD FASHION STOCK MARKET CRASH IN THE STYLE OF 1929 AND 1987... AND THIS TIME THE MARKET WILL LIKELY STAY DOWN BECAUSE THE ECONOMIC "TECTONIC PLATES" HAVE BEEN SHIFTING FOR SOME TIME NOW...BUT THE "REALITIES" IN THE MARKETS STILL ARE GEARED TO US AND EUROPEAN DOMINATION OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY...
THAT, GENTLE READER, WE ALL KNOW NOW TO BE FALSE...
BUT LETS NOT CALL IT "THE GREAT CRASH."
LETS, PERHAPS, CALL IT "THE GREAT REALIGNMENT" OR THE "GREAT SHIFT" OR "THE GREAT AWAKENING OF THE WEST" OR "THE END OF THE GREENSPAN ERA" OR "THE END OF BUBBLENOMICS" OR THE "SHIFT TO THE FAR EAST" OR....whatever. The point is: IT'S OVER ON WALL STREET.
It's the month of BIG STOCK MARKET CRASHES...
At least it used to be...that is to older investors anyway...but then came the NEW ERA...and OCTOBER BECAME FUN! JUST ANOTHER UP MONTH FOR STOCKS...
EVERYONE HAS FORGOTTEN ABOUT THE GREAT OCTOBER STOCK MARKET CRASHES OF THE PAST, ala 1929 and 1987...
Hey, why worry, Greenspan has it all under control...and he would never do anything to hurt the markets or his chums on The Street... Yeah, well that was then and this is now...
IT MAY BE TIME TO RELEARN WHY OCTOBER WAS ALWAYS SO BAD IN THE PAST...
FOR OPENERS...OCTOBER IS THE START OF THE LAST QUARTER OF THE YEAR, WHEN SERIOUS INVESTORS START THINKING ABOUT---NEXT YEAR!
ALSO OCTOBER IS THE TIME WHEN ALL THOSE PREDICTIONS BY COMPANIES ARE PUT TO THE FINAL TEST...WILL THEY "MAKE" THERE ANNUAL NUMBERS, OR NOT?
This October has all of the ear marks of a BIG CRASH MONTH...
INTEREST RATES ARE GOING UP...NOT TO SLOW THE ECONOMY BUT TO SUPPORT THE DOLLAR AND STOP THE RELATED RISE IN OIL, WHICH IS "PRICED" IN DOLLARS... A STRONGER DOLLAR "MEANS" CHEAPER OIL, ETC...
Greenspan simply can not afford to quit raising rates now...the budget deficit, the trade deficits and the weak dollar simply won't let him! And of course, the Bank of China has a lot of "input" these days too!
Additionally, the market is still MASSIVELY OVERPRICED...historically speaking. In the 1929 debacle, a P/E of 20 was considered very expensive... Today a P/E of 20 "seems normal!" That will be ending soon...as we revert to REAL HISTORY...NOT THE FAKE HISTORY OF THE 1990's where the distortions of the bubble became the norm.
In short;
HIGHER RATES + HIGHER OIL + HIGH DEBT AND THE TWIN DEFICITS = AN OLD FASHION STOCK MARKET CRASH IN THE STYLE OF 1929 AND 1987... AND THIS TIME THE MARKET WILL LIKELY STAY DOWN BECAUSE THE ECONOMIC "TECTONIC PLATES" HAVE BEEN SHIFTING FOR SOME TIME NOW...BUT THE "REALITIES" IN THE MARKETS STILL ARE GEARED TO US AND EUROPEAN DOMINATION OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY...
THAT, GENTLE READER, WE ALL KNOW NOW TO BE FALSE...
BUT LETS NOT CALL IT "THE GREAT CRASH."
LETS, PERHAPS, CALL IT "THE GREAT REALIGNMENT" OR THE "GREAT SHIFT" OR "THE GREAT AWAKENING OF THE WEST" OR "THE END OF THE GREENSPAN ERA" OR "THE END OF BUBBLENOMICS" OR THE "SHIFT TO THE FAR EAST" OR....whatever. The point is: IT'S OVER ON WALL STREET.
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