One of the more bizzare notions that is constantly floated by Washington in the MSM is the idea that Iraq is somehow "becoming demcratic."
Of course what is really happening is the Shia are voting for Shias and the Sunnis are either not voting or voting for Sunnis...with the Kurds voting for Kurds....
NOWADAYS, THERE IS ALMOST NO SENSE OF "IRAQ" AS A COHESIVE NATION ...WITH AN IDENTITY AND DESTINY GREATER THAN THE INTERESTS OF THE VARIOUS VOTING BLOCS!
In a way Iraq resembles the US....! Divided between the Red States and the Blue States.
So the idea that US forces can leave when: "The Iraqi army can defend the new Iraq" is THEREFORE simply a nonsense statement...
For an army to defend ANYTHING it has to exist first...and the "notion" of Iraq as an entity seperate for the various factions simply does not exist... And perhaps it never did...outside of the persona of Saddam!
The so-called "government" is seen as simply an construct of the US occupation... Indeed, the "government" in Iraq is unable to leave the protected "green zone" without fear of serious attack. How can it ever "govern?"
In truth, old Iraq has devolved into an ANARCHY from which it will likely never recover...
Now there will be government in Iraq someday... But it won't be the pro American, pro Israeli government that the Neocons envisioned...
Congressman Murtha's suggestion that the US military "withdraw to the outskirts" of Iraq and "wait for a call for help" is also a little bit naieve... Who will the US intervene in favor of...? The pro-Iranian Shia? The independance minded Kurds...? Or the "evil" Sunnis?
SIMPLY PUT, THE US DOES NOT HAVE A CONTITUENCY IN IRAQ! And likely it never did! There was simply the thought that Sharon wanted Saddam gone..."to protect Israel."
Unlike in Afghanistan, where the US intervened on behalf of the "drug lords!" a/k/a "The Northern Alliance."
And as a result the streets of Europe are filled with cheap high quaility heroin now! Your Tax Dollars at work! No such luck in Iraq!
IRAQ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS DECENT INTO ANARCHY AS LONG AS THE US MILITARY IS PRESENT.... AFTERWARDS?
Perhaps a brief civil war...with the eventual partition of old Iraq into the Shia/Iranian sector and the Sunni/Syrian sector... And with the Kurds opting for independance...but perhaps allowing the US "basing rights" in new Kurdistan.
UNLESS AND UNTIL THE THINKING IN WASHINGTON ACCEPTS THIS STARK REALITY....LITTLE PROGRESS WILL BE MADE. And the body bags will keep on coming.
Ultimately, there may perhaps be a form of "democracy" in the three regions of old Iraq...
Perhaps via clan and tribal conclaves or other traditional forms of government native to the region... But a US style democracy with "blue states and "red states?" Probably never.
That's the "Democracy Myth" in Iraq...and it was a costly mistake from which the west will only recover once the current administration is out of power for good.
