Thursday, November 3, 2005

THE WALTON'S MOUNTAIN EFFECT...

All economic news is good news nowadays...unless you hold bonds which are down again.

Perhaps, all of that SHOPPING last month was being done by people who were getting more interest on their CDs! ...Ya think?

The Bubble Mindset has been so engrained in the US markets that it's almost impossible for "a number" to be "bad" these days...all "those numbers" were jiggered out years ago!

And, if all else fails, there is always "creative accouting," which is really ALL accounting these daze...

The reported productivity number was just another way of saying: A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE LAID OFF...AND AMAZINGLY, THEY ARE NOT LOOKING FOR WORK THAT DOESN'T EXIST...BUT RATHER JUST MOVED BACK IN WITH MOM AND AUNT MARTHA!

MY HUNCH IS THAT A LOT MORE PEOPLE ARE "DROPPING OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE" THAN ARE REPORTED BY THE GOVERNMENT...HENCE THE ALWAYS "GOOD" UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES...

After all, if you aren't looking for non-existant "real jobs" you're NOT technically unemployed! Alas, you ain't even a statistic anymore...

This "miracle" of employment without real jobs...is collaterally reflected in the vacancy rates for apartments and residential rentals across the US, which are at record high vacantcies... Because if you can't find a job, and you move back in with mom...and give up your apartment--you "don' exist" in these government numbers.

IF YOU'RE BACK WITH MOM AND DAD...THEN, GENTLE READER, YOU ARE VERY CENTRAL TO OUR CURRENT AMERICAN "ECONOMIC MIRACLE!"

Namely: Low unemployment without significant job growth. Spending without wage enhancements. And finally, productivity without real growth.

I call this phenomenon the: "Walton's Mountain Effect" after the 1970's TV series where three generations of one family all lived in one shack in the hills back in the 1930's... Remember?