The problem with the notion that the US troops will be replaced by Iraqi Troops is that we have not defined: IRAQ!
To be sure, Shia are "joining" the new military and getting on the US "payroll"...but they are only interested in killing Sunnis...and taking control of Iraq for the pro-Iranian Shittes in the south of "old Iraq."
Ditto the Kurds...who have even less of a definition of what Iraq actually is.
The Shia and Kurds are basically PUTTING THEIR LOCAL MILITIAS ON THE US MILTARY PAYROLL...SINCE THERE IS REALLY NOW FUNCTIONING STATE IN IRAQ...AND THEIR LIKELY WON'T BE AFTER THE MUCH TOUTED "ELECTIONS" IN DECEMBER.
Under US sponsership the Shia and Kurdish militia are now operating as dejure DEATH SQUADS...in a campaign of ETHNIC CLEANSING OF SUNNI FROM CENTRAL IRAQ.
Yet somehow DUBYA and Co seem to be under the delusion that these Shia and Kurdish militias are "fighting for Iraq!"
THERE IS NO CONCEPT OF IRAQ TO THIS ETHNIC GROUPS...THERE IS NO SENSE OF NATIONHOOD IN IRAQ TODAY...EXCEPT IN THE DATED AND WRONG "INTELLIGENCE" OF THE AMERICAN MILITARY/WHITE HOUSE, WHO "JUST DON'T GET IT." OR, if the do get it are JUST not telling the American public about what they really "know."
IRAQ DOES NOT EXIST...THE OLD IRAQ OF SADDAM IS GONE AND IT WILL NEVER RETURN.
THERE IS NOW ONLY AMERICAN "EMPOWERED" SHIA AND KURDS WHO ARE "FIGHTING" FOR NARROW PERSONAL AGENDAS THAT HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE OLD "IRAQ" OF SADDAM...
True, they have ambitions of controlling the vast wealth of Iraq...and they surely will accept American money...
But the notion of "a democratic Iraq" as outlined by Bush etal is simply NOT on their radar screen...
For that reason...Bush has simply not carried his burden of proof that he has a plan for "victory" in Iraq...
My suggestion is that even if he can define "victory" it will be useless unless there is a definition of "Iraq" by all concerned...right now the Shia, Kurds, Sunni and Americans are all defining Iraq differently... And that is the biggest mistate Dubya and the Republicans are making today.