Starting June 1st this blog will be updated OCCASIONALLY, BUT NOT NECESSARILY DAILY...... DAILY POSTINGS WILL RESUME ON SEPTEMBER 1ST...HAVE A GREAT SUMMER.....
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
SUMMER HOURS........
Starting June 1st this blog will be updated OCCASIONALLY, BUT NOT NECESSARILY DAILY...... DAILY POSTINGS WILL RESUME ON SEPTEMBER 1ST...HAVE A GREAT SUMMER.....
EUROPE WILL REJECT FREE TRADE AND ROBBER BARON CAPITALISM
The vote in France against American style "Robber Baron" captalism could be more ominous that many think.....
This was a total rejections of FREE TRADE CAPITALISM by a major nation in Europe.... Clearly the French and the Germans are not going to work for Polish wages....or Turkish wages.
The truth is that NOW ALL ECONOMIES WILL BE LOCAL....as they are naturally. THE ERA OF CHEAP LABOR CONQUORS ALL IS OVER......
Amazingly, it is possible that even the American voter is starting to wake up now....after the dust has settled and the homo terrorists have not struck....many people are noticing that their jobs and pensions are missing under Dubya and the neocons.....
THIS ENTIRE POLITICAL CLIMATE FEELS LIKE TOO MUCH EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON THE POWER OF THE RELIGOUS RIGHT....AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT THEY CAN BE "KEPT STUPID" FOREVER...... I DON'T THINK SO.....
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO GET A BIG SURPISE IN THE 2006 ELECTIONS....THEN THE PROGRESSIVE DYNAMIC, NOW IN DISARAY WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF.....
THE FRENCH VOTE YESTERDAY WAS ONLY THE START OF A LONG LONG PROCESS OF RE-DEFINING 21st CENTURY CAPITALISM....."AS IF" PEOPLE MATTER MORE THAN PROFITS......
Stay tuned....this isn't over in Euroland or in the US.....IT'S JUST STARTING!
This was a total rejections of FREE TRADE CAPITALISM by a major nation in Europe.... Clearly the French and the Germans are not going to work for Polish wages....or Turkish wages.
The truth is that NOW ALL ECONOMIES WILL BE LOCAL....as they are naturally. THE ERA OF CHEAP LABOR CONQUORS ALL IS OVER......
Amazingly, it is possible that even the American voter is starting to wake up now....after the dust has settled and the homo terrorists have not struck....many people are noticing that their jobs and pensions are missing under Dubya and the neocons.....
THIS ENTIRE POLITICAL CLIMATE FEELS LIKE TOO MUCH EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON THE POWER OF THE RELIGOUS RIGHT....AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT THEY CAN BE "KEPT STUPID" FOREVER...... I DON'T THINK SO.....
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE REPUBLICANS ARE GOING TO GET A BIG SURPISE IN THE 2006 ELECTIONS....THEN THE PROGRESSIVE DYNAMIC, NOW IN DISARAY WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF.....
THE FRENCH VOTE YESTERDAY WAS ONLY THE START OF A LONG LONG PROCESS OF RE-DEFINING 21st CENTURY CAPITALISM....."AS IF" PEOPLE MATTER MORE THAN PROFITS......
Stay tuned....this isn't over in Euroland or in the US.....IT'S JUST STARTING!
MARKETS START IRRATIONAL SUMMER....WITH ASSET BUBBLES GALORE!
Stocks are way over-priced for any normal investor....but so are bonds.
THERE IS A STOCK BUBBLE AND A BOND BUBBLE..... As stocks sell off later this summer...some of that money will run to bonds which are also overpriced....
So the net result...after you take your bath in stocks....You'll get a good rinsing in the bond market....
THE ONLY SAFE INVESTMENT IS CASH..... And there might even be a DOLLAR BUBBLE but that's another matter all together.....
ESSENTIALLY, WHAT GREENSPAN HAS CREATED IS ASSET BUBBLES GALORE!
Amazingly, most of Greenspan's "liquidity" has managed to stay trapped in the asset markets....and so inflation has stayed contained...except for some "leakage" into oil and gas. And that is truly too good to last.....the US government is double dog broke and is fighting expensive and unwinnable wars that no one supports outside of Israel and the Bible Belt.
AT SOME POINT, THIS SUMMER...REALITY WILL START TO SINK IN.....I HAVE NO IDEA WHEN BUT IT WILL HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER.....
THE PROBLEM IS THAT NO ONE WANTS TO SEE THE "ERA OF BUBBLES" END.....SO IT WILL BE CONTINUED UNTIL IT COLLAPSES OF IT'S OWN INTERNAL INCONSISTENCIES.....THE MARKET MASTERS AND THEIR SHILLS ARE ARGUING IN CIRCLES NOW....AND IT IS TEDIOUS AND TIRESOME TO EVEN RESPOND TO THEIR DRIVEL......
SO THEY JUST KEEP CIRCLING AND CIRCLING......LIKE A FAST ACTION SHELL GAME....
ASSET BUBBLES GALORE.....PLACE YOUR BETS....AND PREPARE TO LOSE SOME MONEY........
THERE IS A STOCK BUBBLE AND A BOND BUBBLE..... As stocks sell off later this summer...some of that money will run to bonds which are also overpriced....
So the net result...after you take your bath in stocks....You'll get a good rinsing in the bond market....
THE ONLY SAFE INVESTMENT IS CASH..... And there might even be a DOLLAR BUBBLE but that's another matter all together.....
ESSENTIALLY, WHAT GREENSPAN HAS CREATED IS ASSET BUBBLES GALORE!
Amazingly, most of Greenspan's "liquidity" has managed to stay trapped in the asset markets....and so inflation has stayed contained...except for some "leakage" into oil and gas. And that is truly too good to last.....the US government is double dog broke and is fighting expensive and unwinnable wars that no one supports outside of Israel and the Bible Belt.
AT SOME POINT, THIS SUMMER...REALITY WILL START TO SINK IN.....I HAVE NO IDEA WHEN BUT IT WILL HAPPEN SOONER OR LATER.....
THE PROBLEM IS THAT NO ONE WANTS TO SEE THE "ERA OF BUBBLES" END.....SO IT WILL BE CONTINUED UNTIL IT COLLAPSES OF IT'S OWN INTERNAL INCONSISTENCIES.....THE MARKET MASTERS AND THEIR SHILLS ARE ARGUING IN CIRCLES NOW....AND IT IS TEDIOUS AND TIRESOME TO EVEN RESPOND TO THEIR DRIVEL......
SO THEY JUST KEEP CIRCLING AND CIRCLING......LIKE A FAST ACTION SHELL GAME....
ASSET BUBBLES GALORE.....PLACE YOUR BETS....AND PREPARE TO LOSE SOME MONEY........
Monday, May 30, 2005
COPING WITH GRIEF......MEMORIAL DAY 2005
The funny thing about death is that it always happens to the other guy!
Death is literally the first thing someone does not technically experience......by definition. The only real experience that comes from death is the grief that is felt by others.
Many Boomers are now caring for parents who will soon die. Indeed, the death of a parent is becoming the universal shared experience of the Boomer generation these days.
Many others have sons and daugthers who recently died tragically in Iraq or in Afganhistan.
But how to handle grief....? Does one put on a brave face and express no emotion? Or, do you walk down the street sobbing uncontrolably....? Probably neither extreme is best.....
Repressed grief can have serious emotional consequences within the first year of a significant death. And it must be handled carefully and avoided if possible.
But, Excessive memorializing and making of odd vows can lead to trouble. I met a guy recently (a customer) who had hair down to his knees....! After trying not to notice, I asked him if his long hair was some kind of world record.... He said no. And volunteered that he had quit cutting his hair back in 1981 after his father died. The reason: His father had always cut his hair when this fellow was a kid....!
Now this guy had made himself into a kind of freak....just because of his misplaced grief about his father cutting his hair.... How sad really.
I DO NOT RECOMMEND UNUSUAL VOW MAKING OR EXCESSIVE MEMORIALIZING ABOUT THE DEAD.
But Repressed grief can have serious conseqences too; it is best not to be "too brave"....the mind is a mysterious hydrolic mechanism...and repressed feelings can "pop up" in unexpected places later on.
Probably the best way to handle grief is to just sit down with a significant other, and/or a bottle of Pinot, and have a good cry.....and do this for a few weeks after the death. At least you won't suddenly develope a fear of getting into elevators six months later!
After an appropriate time, say a month or two, grief should be "encapsulated" by giving the grieving person plenty of DISTRACTIONS AND DIVERSIONS. Go shopping. Take a trip. Visit friends. Or do something really really different...... Later sometimes a return to routine helps too.
Then, with time, slowly the grief fades, and new things move into the foreground of daily life.....life goes on as they say...because it really has no other good choices.
Eventually, the grief becomes symbolic....a mere token to be taken out and looked at on special days....like Memorial Day.
Death is literally the first thing someone does not technically experience......by definition. The only real experience that comes from death is the grief that is felt by others.
Many Boomers are now caring for parents who will soon die. Indeed, the death of a parent is becoming the universal shared experience of the Boomer generation these days.
Many others have sons and daugthers who recently died tragically in Iraq or in Afganhistan.
But how to handle grief....? Does one put on a brave face and express no emotion? Or, do you walk down the street sobbing uncontrolably....? Probably neither extreme is best.....
Repressed grief can have serious emotional consequences within the first year of a significant death. And it must be handled carefully and avoided if possible.
But, Excessive memorializing and making of odd vows can lead to trouble. I met a guy recently (a customer) who had hair down to his knees....! After trying not to notice, I asked him if his long hair was some kind of world record.... He said no. And volunteered that he had quit cutting his hair back in 1981 after his father died. The reason: His father had always cut his hair when this fellow was a kid....!
Now this guy had made himself into a kind of freak....just because of his misplaced grief about his father cutting his hair.... How sad really.
I DO NOT RECOMMEND UNUSUAL VOW MAKING OR EXCESSIVE MEMORIALIZING ABOUT THE DEAD.
But Repressed grief can have serious conseqences too; it is best not to be "too brave"....the mind is a mysterious hydrolic mechanism...and repressed feelings can "pop up" in unexpected places later on.
Probably the best way to handle grief is to just sit down with a significant other, and/or a bottle of Pinot, and have a good cry.....and do this for a few weeks after the death. At least you won't suddenly develope a fear of getting into elevators six months later!
After an appropriate time, say a month or two, grief should be "encapsulated" by giving the grieving person plenty of DISTRACTIONS AND DIVERSIONS. Go shopping. Take a trip. Visit friends. Or do something really really different...... Later sometimes a return to routine helps too.
Then, with time, slowly the grief fades, and new things move into the foreground of daily life.....life goes on as they say...because it really has no other good choices.
Eventually, the grief becomes symbolic....a mere token to be taken out and looked at on special days....like Memorial Day.
Sunday, May 29, 2005
FRENCH REJECT AMERICAN STYLE CAPITALISM....
Clearly the Hong Kongization of Europe will take some doing..... But could this mean more protectionism, more localism and perhaps a FORTRESS EUROPE ECONOMY.....? Clearly Europe has a problem with the notion that CHEAP LABOR RULES THE WORLD.....OR SHOULD.
Saturday, May 28, 2005
WILL EUROPE REJECT GLOBALISM.....?
The new EU constitution is seen as an abrogation of the SOCIAL CONTRACT that many Eurolanders enjoy.....Europe will never become another US....with it's slavish devotion to low wages and oppressive conditions for average people.
But without free trade and globalism will Europe become a fortress economy.....and force the free traders to compromise or wallow in their own glut....stay tuned. This could get interesting.
But without free trade and globalism will Europe become a fortress economy.....and force the free traders to compromise or wallow in their own glut....stay tuned. This could get interesting.
DAVID AS NEO-MARXIST.....?
DAVID BROOKS AS NEO-MARXIST.....?
Now that the cold war is over....it may be time to re-read Marx as David has apparently done in his column today.
Marx actually speaks DIRECTLY to the post cold war world in many different ways.
Marx predicted the dependance of the capitalist class on FREE TRADE. Marx predicted the need of the capitalist class for EVER MORE TECHNOLOGY.....And in many other ways the Marxist Economics of the 19th Century seems to becoming back NOW THAT THE NEW DEAL IS BEING DISMANTLED....!
But just read it yourself in the link below:
http://www.anu.edu.au/polsci/marx/classics/manifesto.html
Now that the cold war is over....it may be time to re-read Marx as David has apparently done in his column today.
Marx actually speaks DIRECTLY to the post cold war world in many different ways.
Marx predicted the dependance of the capitalist class on FREE TRADE. Marx predicted the need of the capitalist class for EVER MORE TECHNOLOGY.....And in many other ways the Marxist Economics of the 19th Century seems to becoming back NOW THAT THE NEW DEAL IS BEING DISMANTLED....!
But just read it yourself in the link below:
http://www.anu.edu.au/polsci/marx/classics/manifesto.html
Friday, May 27, 2005
POP QUIZ FOR THE HOLIDAY......ON LABOR ECONOMICS
You knew it was a mistake to come here today.....! Two essay questions:
Question 1.
"PEOPLE WHO CAN...DO. PEOPLE WHO CAN'T LOOK FOR A JOB.
Describe and Discuss.
Question 2.
"JOBS ARE FOR PEOPLE WHO CAN'T THINK OF ANYTHING BETTER TO DO."
Explain and Explore.
GOOD LUCK..... And no looking at the paper of the person sitting next to you. It's probably wrong!
And Please note: The correct answers could be worth millions to you!
Question 1.
"PEOPLE WHO CAN...DO. PEOPLE WHO CAN'T LOOK FOR A JOB.
Describe and Discuss.
Question 2.
"JOBS ARE FOR PEOPLE WHO CAN'T THINK OF ANYTHING BETTER TO DO."
Explain and Explore.
GOOD LUCK..... And no looking at the paper of the person sitting next to you. It's probably wrong!
And Please note: The correct answers could be worth millions to you!
DON'T FORGET THE BOND BUBBLE.....
Notes Paul Krugman in the Times today:
"If housing prices actually started falling, we'd be looking at a very nasty scene, in which both construction and consumer spending would plunge, pushing the economy right back into recession."
THE HOUSING BUBBLE MIGHT BE THE LEAST OF OUR WORRIES IN A FEW YEARS.
The Bond Bubble is even more ominous because it threatens the very basis of the US Economy---MASSIVE DEBT!
Once the Bond Bubble breaks the rest is history.....Housing and Stocks and the Dollar will plunge.
Then, investors will move their money into the NEW HIGH YIELD DEBT INSTRUMENTS....BECAUSE OLD AND NEW DEBT WILL, IN EFFECT, BE ON SALE CHEAP.
We will surely see a return to Vietnam/Johnsonian Era interest rates....
CDs paying 10% to 18% could return....and as in the 1970's EVERYONE will be avoiding stocks and real estate to take advantage of the high rates.
AS TO KRUGMAN'S QUESTION: WHAT NEXT? THE ANSWER IS 1970's REDUX.
"If housing prices actually started falling, we'd be looking at a very nasty scene, in which both construction and consumer spending would plunge, pushing the economy right back into recession."
THE HOUSING BUBBLE MIGHT BE THE LEAST OF OUR WORRIES IN A FEW YEARS.
The Bond Bubble is even more ominous because it threatens the very basis of the US Economy---MASSIVE DEBT!
Once the Bond Bubble breaks the rest is history.....Housing and Stocks and the Dollar will plunge.
Then, investors will move their money into the NEW HIGH YIELD DEBT INSTRUMENTS....BECAUSE OLD AND NEW DEBT WILL, IN EFFECT, BE ON SALE CHEAP.
We will surely see a return to Vietnam/Johnsonian Era interest rates....
CDs paying 10% to 18% could return....and as in the 1970's EVERYONE will be avoiding stocks and real estate to take advantage of the high rates.
AS TO KRUGMAN'S QUESTION: WHAT NEXT? THE ANSWER IS 1970's REDUX.
Thursday, May 26, 2005
THE NEW EVANGELICAL AGENDA.....
Re David Brooks Today in the NYTimes....
More people in the US are living without health care coverage and on low wages THAN ARE GETTING ABORTIONS!
It would be nice to see the CHRISTIAN HYPOCRITES AND THEIR MONEY GRUBBING "PREACHERS" tackle some of the REAL ISSUES FOR A CHANGE.....
More people in the US are living without health care coverage and on low wages THAN ARE GETTING ABORTIONS!
It would be nice to see the CHRISTIAN HYPOCRITES AND THEIR MONEY GRUBBING "PREACHERS" tackle some of the REAL ISSUES FOR A CHANGE.....
Wednesday, May 25, 2005
THE LATTER DAYS OF A DYING EMPIRE....AMERICA
What Tom Friedman describes today in the NYTimes is the latter days of an dying empire......
Americans have become fat, sassy and stupid...Americans have lost whatever edge they had in the 20th Century.
No one cares anymore....it's all just greed and looting on Wall Street and in Washington these days. Can anyone deny it?
The Bank of China is more powerful than the Fed now. China can cancel Fed policy on it's own.
Our trillion dollar military can not even handle a two-bit insurgency in Iraq....with our "volunteers" from the unemployed classes.
We even have Dubya, the Romulus Augustulus of our time......what a perfect choice!
The Barbarians are at the gates...but no one cares. Can America be saved? Perhaps, but not as a world power...these are the latter days of an empire, bankrupt both economically and intellectually.
Americans have become fat, sassy and stupid...Americans have lost whatever edge they had in the 20th Century.
No one cares anymore....it's all just greed and looting on Wall Street and in Washington these days. Can anyone deny it?
The Bank of China is more powerful than the Fed now. China can cancel Fed policy on it's own.
Our trillion dollar military can not even handle a two-bit insurgency in Iraq....with our "volunteers" from the unemployed classes.
We even have Dubya, the Romulus Augustulus of our time......what a perfect choice!
The Barbarians are at the gates...but no one cares. Can America be saved? Perhaps, but not as a world power...these are the latter days of an empire, bankrupt both economically and intellectually.
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
DO STEM CELL RESEARCH OVERSEAS.....?
Why not! Everything else is being done outside of the US these days! Why not stem cell research? The Religious Right is perfectly content to see the US become a second rate nation of ignorant Bible thumpers...... Why change now?
JUST LET IT RIP.....
JUST LET IT RIP.....
MARKET POOPED....
The recent rallies have seemed a bit "managed".......low volume and a dismal news environment are tell-tale signs of market shills. As the float gets distributed the markets become more random. The current Bullish Phase is likely over soon...and it all started with driving down gold to boost the dollar.
SYRIA STANDS UP TO BUSH AND NEOCONS....
How bad is it in Iraq?
Well, now the Syrians are NOT AFRAID to stand up to the Washington Neocons.....Syria is ending all cooperation with the US forces in Iraq. Remember when Syria thought they were "next" on the Neocon hit list.....? That was then, this is now.
Of course, US forces will say that they didn't cooperate in the first place.
BUT ANOTHER UNGUARDED FRONT TO DEFEND MUST BE DAUNTING TO US COMMANDERS IN THE FIELD IN IRAQ......
The wheels are coming off in Iraq every day now.....surely a major crisis for Dubya's Optional War is coming soon.
Well, now the Syrians are NOT AFRAID to stand up to the Washington Neocons.....Syria is ending all cooperation with the US forces in Iraq. Remember when Syria thought they were "next" on the Neocon hit list.....? That was then, this is now.
Of course, US forces will say that they didn't cooperate in the first place.
BUT ANOTHER UNGUARDED FRONT TO DEFEND MUST BE DAUNTING TO US COMMANDERS IN THE FIELD IN IRAQ......
The wheels are coming off in Iraq every day now.....surely a major crisis for Dubya's Optional War is coming soon.
BUSINESS SEES STAGFLATION......
So why is the market rallying.....? Well, markets are always a little irrational and the bond market has become a "no-go zone" for many....so stocks are the NEXT WORST INVESTMENT for many money managers.
Monday, May 23, 2005
HAPPY, TOO TOO HAPPY....
Do the markets seem a little "too happy" lately?
I mean whats changed.....? Oil is down a tad. The economy is creating a few low wage jobs for the summer?
But Greenspan is raising rates no matter what....and Asian central banks are selling dollars..even as they deny it. And the China devaluation could be.....problematic?
There's a lot of hype about hedge funds being caught on the wrong side of many trades.....and the budget deficits in the US seem destined to expand forever...or as long as China sends us the money.
THERE IS SOMETHING VERY VERY FISHY ABOUT THE MARKET THE LAST FEW WEEKS....PERHAPS THE "NAFARIOUS FORCES" ARE BAILING OUT THE HEDGE FUNDS BY "MAKING THINGS RIGHT" AGAIN.... OR....?
Anyway, this market is happy....too too happy.
SOMETHING IS UP.....BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO BE STOCKS FOR LONG......
Postscript: Note today that bonds were up strongly even as stocks were up...and the volume on the NYSE was low for a "rally." This is very "fishy" behavior for the markets...my hunch is someone is bailing someone out of something..... stay tuned.
I mean whats changed.....? Oil is down a tad. The economy is creating a few low wage jobs for the summer?
But Greenspan is raising rates no matter what....and Asian central banks are selling dollars..even as they deny it. And the China devaluation could be.....problematic?
There's a lot of hype about hedge funds being caught on the wrong side of many trades.....and the budget deficits in the US seem destined to expand forever...or as long as China sends us the money.
THERE IS SOMETHING VERY VERY FISHY ABOUT THE MARKET THE LAST FEW WEEKS....PERHAPS THE "NAFARIOUS FORCES" ARE BAILING OUT THE HEDGE FUNDS BY "MAKING THINGS RIGHT" AGAIN.... OR....?
Anyway, this market is happy....too too happy.
SOMETHING IS UP.....BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO BE STOCKS FOR LONG......
Postscript: Note today that bonds were up strongly even as stocks were up...and the volume on the NYSE was low for a "rally." This is very "fishy" behavior for the markets...my hunch is someone is bailing someone out of something..... stay tuned.
ONLY THE SUCKERS ARE BUYING THIS MESS
The "rally" in the market over the last week was strickly for THE SUCKERS AND MONEY MANAGERS......everyone else should be nowhere near Wall Street at this time.
Oil has been driven down by speculators taking profits...and that is really the whole story.
The bond market seems to be in LaLa Land.....with the Fed due to give it another dose of reality soon. But there are forces in the world that do not want a US Bond crash....MAINLY ASIAN CENTRAL BANKS who are trying to figure out how to unwind their huge US bond holdings without becoming unwound in the process.
CLEARLY THE 10 YEAR BOND IN THE US SHOULD BE SELLING AT 6% TO 7% RIGHT NOW....WITHOUT FURTHER CRISIS....and almost everyone, including Greenspan, is surprised that it isn't. The macroeconomic fundamentals in the US simply do not jusitify current low bond yields.
THE BOND BUBBLE IN THE US IS MASSIVE....AND STOCKS HAVE RISEN TO THEIR CURRENT CEILING YET AGAIN....
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE CONSUMER SIDE OF THE US ECONOMY IS WEAKENING BY THE DAY.
EVEN IF, THE CORPORATE FRAUDSTERS HAVE A FEW MORE PROFORMA ACCOUNTING SURPRISES TO GO, AND THE BROKERS "DO UPGRADES" AND CEO HYPE SPRINGS ETERNAL....
....BUT THEY ARE ALL HITTING THE POINT WHERE IT MAY BE TIME TO START DOING THE "PERP WALK" AGAIN.......THIS IS A MARKET STRICKLY FOR SUCKERS AND MONEY MANAGERS.
WE KNOW THAT MARKETS CAN LEVITATE ON SELF-GENERATED HYPE, AS HAPPEN DURING THE BUBBLE.....
BUT, SOONER OR LATER, REALITY STARTS TO CREEP IN...AS WE SHALL SOON SEE YET AGAIN.
Oil has been driven down by speculators taking profits...and that is really the whole story.
The bond market seems to be in LaLa Land.....with the Fed due to give it another dose of reality soon. But there are forces in the world that do not want a US Bond crash....MAINLY ASIAN CENTRAL BANKS who are trying to figure out how to unwind their huge US bond holdings without becoming unwound in the process.
CLEARLY THE 10 YEAR BOND IN THE US SHOULD BE SELLING AT 6% TO 7% RIGHT NOW....WITHOUT FURTHER CRISIS....and almost everyone, including Greenspan, is surprised that it isn't. The macroeconomic fundamentals in the US simply do not jusitify current low bond yields.
THE BOND BUBBLE IN THE US IS MASSIVE....AND STOCKS HAVE RISEN TO THEIR CURRENT CEILING YET AGAIN....
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE CONSUMER SIDE OF THE US ECONOMY IS WEAKENING BY THE DAY.
EVEN IF, THE CORPORATE FRAUDSTERS HAVE A FEW MORE PROFORMA ACCOUNTING SURPRISES TO GO, AND THE BROKERS "DO UPGRADES" AND CEO HYPE SPRINGS ETERNAL....
....BUT THEY ARE ALL HITTING THE POINT WHERE IT MAY BE TIME TO START DOING THE "PERP WALK" AGAIN.......THIS IS A MARKET STRICKLY FOR SUCKERS AND MONEY MANAGERS.
WE KNOW THAT MARKETS CAN LEVITATE ON SELF-GENERATED HYPE, AS HAPPEN DURING THE BUBBLE.....
BUT, SOONER OR LATER, REALITY STARTS TO CREEP IN...AS WE SHALL SOON SEE YET AGAIN.
PATIENCE, DEMOCRATS PATIENCE......
Only the coming Depression will focus the minds of the Bubba Republicans.....
Slowly they are coming to their senses that gays and liberals are NOT their real enemies....the Wall Street Rich are.
And the role of the religious community in perpetuating this fraud on the people is right in line with how religion has always acted....to wit as an opiate for the masses and stooges of the elite.
Nothing is working out now for working people....nothing! It's just a matter of time before the "slow learners" catch up with the rest of us.....
Patience, Democrats patience......
Slowly they are coming to their senses that gays and liberals are NOT their real enemies....the Wall Street Rich are.
And the role of the religious community in perpetuating this fraud on the people is right in line with how religion has always acted....to wit as an opiate for the masses and stooges of the elite.
Nothing is working out now for working people....nothing! It's just a matter of time before the "slow learners" catch up with the rest of us.....
Patience, Democrats patience......
Sunday, May 22, 2005
SADDAM IN HIS WHITEY TIGHTIES.....
The TOTAL STUPIDITY of the recent pictures of Saddam in his underware makes the Newsweek story pale in comparsion.
WHAT IS ACCOMPLISHED BY THIS TYPE OF PROPAGANDA....?
SADDAM IS HUMANIZED! SADDAM IS MAKE AN OBJECT OF SYMPATHY FOR MUSLIMS WORLDWIDE!
THE NOTION THAT AMERICA AND ISRAEL ARE OUT TO HUMILIATE MUSLIMS GAINS TRACTION.
DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS HAVE RUN ONE OF THE STUPIDEST WARS IN HISTORY....AND QUITE FRANKLY THEY WILL BE VERY VERY LUCKY NOT TO BE CALLED TO ACCOUNT FOR THEIR ACTIONS....AT SOME POINT.
AND REMEMBER, THAT "POINT" COULD BE YEARS FROM NOW.....WHEN DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS ARE "OUT OF POWER" AND UNABLE TO "PULL STRINGS" TO PROTECT THEMSELVES......
My hunch is that "at some point" the world community is going to demand that certain key members of the current administration be held accountable in an international criminal court.
Because jailing a few low level enlisted grunts....JUST WON'T CUT LONGER TERM. And if Bush/Cheney/Rove think it will....they could be seriously miscalculating.
And DISSING DEMOCRATS could be their biggest mistake of all! Because the folks you "dis" on the way up....are the one's you'll surely meet on the way down!
WHAT IS ACCOMPLISHED BY THIS TYPE OF PROPAGANDA....?
SADDAM IS HUMANIZED! SADDAM IS MAKE AN OBJECT OF SYMPATHY FOR MUSLIMS WORLDWIDE!
THE NOTION THAT AMERICA AND ISRAEL ARE OUT TO HUMILIATE MUSLIMS GAINS TRACTION.
DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS HAVE RUN ONE OF THE STUPIDEST WARS IN HISTORY....AND QUITE FRANKLY THEY WILL BE VERY VERY LUCKY NOT TO BE CALLED TO ACCOUNT FOR THEIR ACTIONS....AT SOME POINT.
AND REMEMBER, THAT "POINT" COULD BE YEARS FROM NOW.....WHEN DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS ARE "OUT OF POWER" AND UNABLE TO "PULL STRINGS" TO PROTECT THEMSELVES......
My hunch is that "at some point" the world community is going to demand that certain key members of the current administration be held accountable in an international criminal court.
Because jailing a few low level enlisted grunts....JUST WON'T CUT LONGER TERM. And if Bush/Cheney/Rove think it will....they could be seriously miscalculating.
And DISSING DEMOCRATS could be their biggest mistake of all! Because the folks you "dis" on the way up....are the one's you'll surely meet on the way down!
INSTITUTIONAL FAILURE IN THE SENATE.....
.....could be a prelude to Civil War.
Remember, many considered the election of Lincoln to be a prelude to a small unpleasantness.....that would surely blow over by Christmas 1860.
EXTREME CAUTION is called for when dealing with institutional matters.
Remember, many considered the election of Lincoln to be a prelude to a small unpleasantness.....that would surely blow over by Christmas 1860.
EXTREME CAUTION is called for when dealing with institutional matters.
Saturday, May 21, 2005
GREENSPAN SEES NO HOUSING BUBBLE!
Translation:
GREENSPAN SEES A HUGE HOUSING BUBBLE AND IT WILL LIKELY BREAK THIS YEAR....TAKING DOWN FANNIE AND FREDDIE IN THE PROCESS....
Any Questions....?
BUT HAS GREENSPAN EVER SEEN A BUBBLE....?? PERHAPS NOT. AFTER ALL HE LIVES IN ONE!
GREENSPAN SEES A HUGE HOUSING BUBBLE AND IT WILL LIKELY BREAK THIS YEAR....TAKING DOWN FANNIE AND FREDDIE IN THE PROCESS....
Any Questions....?
BUT HAS GREENSPAN EVER SEEN A BUBBLE....?? PERHAPS NOT. AFTER ALL HE LIVES IN ONE!
WILL DUBYA PAY A PRICE FOR GUANTANAMO?
Guantánamo has become the symbol of the NEW AMERICA and and AMERICANS IN GENERAL.
Unfortunately, Liberals think that harping about Guantanamo will convert some of David Brooks' "Poor Repubilcans" back to the Democratic Party and the Progressive Cause.....
IT WON'T.
By complaining about the abuses at Guantanamo DEMOCRATS ONLY SEAL THE BUBBA REPUBLICANS TO THE CONSERVATIVE CAUSE.....because at this point most Americans are operating at an irrational level thanks to 911.
TO MOST AMERICANS, 911 GAVE AMERICA THE RIGHT, INDEED THE DUTY, TO LASH OUT AT THE WORLD IN ANYWAY THAT THE LEADERSHIP SEES FIT......
The problem is that behind the scenes the looting of the economy and the destruction of "the beast" in Washington continues unnoticed and unabated by the US public.....the conservative media have won the hearts and minds of the American Public. And now they are moving in for the re-conquest of Washington using an unholy alliance of wealthy elites, the ignorant religious and the rural poor.
Our decline into Fascism is now all but assured.....THE DEMOCRATS ARE FINISHED. THEY CAN NOT WIN AGAINST THESE DARK FORCES.
But where did it all go so wrong?
Probably when the elites started taking over the media for their own political and economic purposes.....we have known for some time that the poor and the ignorant are likely candidates for right wing propaganda and Fascist ideology....ONLY BEFORE---WE NEVER WENT THAT ROUTE.
Now with Israel decending into a dismal period of militarism and racism those old taboos have been removed....and the seeds of our coming Fascism are finding fertile ground in the American working and lower classes.
Dubya will not pay a price for Guantánamo....it will become his badge of honor to the new Poor Republicans.
Unfortunately, Liberals think that harping about Guantanamo will convert some of David Brooks' "Poor Repubilcans" back to the Democratic Party and the Progressive Cause.....
IT WON'T.
By complaining about the abuses at Guantanamo DEMOCRATS ONLY SEAL THE BUBBA REPUBLICANS TO THE CONSERVATIVE CAUSE.....because at this point most Americans are operating at an irrational level thanks to 911.
TO MOST AMERICANS, 911 GAVE AMERICA THE RIGHT, INDEED THE DUTY, TO LASH OUT AT THE WORLD IN ANYWAY THAT THE LEADERSHIP SEES FIT......
The problem is that behind the scenes the looting of the economy and the destruction of "the beast" in Washington continues unnoticed and unabated by the US public.....the conservative media have won the hearts and minds of the American Public. And now they are moving in for the re-conquest of Washington using an unholy alliance of wealthy elites, the ignorant religious and the rural poor.
Our decline into Fascism is now all but assured.....THE DEMOCRATS ARE FINISHED. THEY CAN NOT WIN AGAINST THESE DARK FORCES.
But where did it all go so wrong?
Probably when the elites started taking over the media for their own political and economic purposes.....we have known for some time that the poor and the ignorant are likely candidates for right wing propaganda and Fascist ideology....ONLY BEFORE---WE NEVER WENT THAT ROUTE.
Now with Israel decending into a dismal period of militarism and racism those old taboos have been removed....and the seeds of our coming Fascism are finding fertile ground in the American working and lower classes.
Dubya will not pay a price for Guantánamo....it will become his badge of honor to the new Poor Republicans.
Friday, May 20, 2005
KARZAI GOES 'CHUCKIE'........?
Go Chuckie, Go...... Good Luck selling the "evil puppet" routine to the Afghan people.....and to Dubya. But after all, Karzai is all Dubya has in Afhganistan....as the US military protects the poppy fields. The notion of the US being the defacto rulers of the world's biggest Narco State is....well, perhaps fitting?
RANGE BOUND MARKET HITS IT'S CEILING....?
BUT BUY THE DIA WHEN IT REACHES 10,100+/-............
THE BATTLE FOR DOW 10,000 WILL NOT END SOON...AND THE MARKET MASTERS ARE WILLING TO PAY YOU TO BE A "BELEIVER" IN "DOW 10,000 FOREVER"...
again.....
THE BATTLE FOR DOW 10,000 WILL NOT END SOON...AND THE MARKET MASTERS ARE WILLING TO PAY YOU TO BE A "BELEIVER" IN "DOW 10,000 FOREVER"...
again.....
THANKS TO ALL READERS OF THIS BLOG....
Thanks to all readers of this blog....
you are truly part of a small group of thinkers who appreciate reality based op-ed. I realize that there are many good outlets for good op-ed today. The NYTs has been doing a great job. And Kos is really good too...I post there under the name: "BALTHAZAR."
We have Air America now....and best of all for progressives the Bush Policies are starting to bite hard now. But will the Red State Morons EVER wake up....somehow I'm a pessimist on this. I think that stupid people don't "wise up"....they just become violent and more irrational. So this notion that we are going to "educate them" and then everything will be OK.....could be wishful thinking on the part of progressives like myself...and perhaps you as well.
There was a news story today about the Koreans making a major breakthough in stem cell research that could be the "magic bullet" for curing many diseases....of course that research would be ILLEGAL IN THE US!
AND SO IT GOES....PERHAPS LIKE JEWS IN GERMANY IN THE 1930'S THE "BEST POLICY" WOULD BE TO JUST LEAVE THE US AND LOOK FOR A MORE RATIONAL PLACE TO LIVE.....
BECAUSE I DON'T THINK DUBYA AND "HIS KIND" ARE GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON.....
IF I FIND THAT PLACE....I'LL LET YOU KNOW..........
you are truly part of a small group of thinkers who appreciate reality based op-ed. I realize that there are many good outlets for good op-ed today. The NYTs has been doing a great job. And Kos is really good too...I post there under the name: "BALTHAZAR."
We have Air America now....and best of all for progressives the Bush Policies are starting to bite hard now. But will the Red State Morons EVER wake up....somehow I'm a pessimist on this. I think that stupid people don't "wise up"....they just become violent and more irrational. So this notion that we are going to "educate them" and then everything will be OK.....could be wishful thinking on the part of progressives like myself...and perhaps you as well.
There was a news story today about the Koreans making a major breakthough in stem cell research that could be the "magic bullet" for curing many diseases....of course that research would be ILLEGAL IN THE US!
AND SO IT GOES....PERHAPS LIKE JEWS IN GERMANY IN THE 1930'S THE "BEST POLICY" WOULD BE TO JUST LEAVE THE US AND LOOK FOR A MORE RATIONAL PLACE TO LIVE.....
BECAUSE I DON'T THINK DUBYA AND "HIS KIND" ARE GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON.....
IF I FIND THAT PLACE....I'LL LET YOU KNOW..........
DUBYA'S WAR OF IDEAS IN THE MIDDLE EAST....
Tom Friedman wants Dubya & Co to "win the war of ideas" in the Middle East....!
Well, ....with Dubya in charge....GOOD LUCK!
In truth, the middle East policy of Dubya and the Neocons is in tatters... Worse, it was and is a total disaster that seems to have no clear way out!
Basically, Dubya went into the middle east FOR REVENGE OF 911.... GET THAT STRIAGHT AND A LOT OF THINGS "CLEAR UP."
US troops are perfectly content to JUST KILL MUSLIMS of any and all types....good, bad and indifferent....and every Muslim they kill is PAY BACK for 911. See todays story about how the US troops joined a fire fight and started killing the "good guys!" Yeah, well WHATEVER! THEY PROBABLY ALL DESEVED IT ....RIGHT?
JUST ADMIT THAT KILLING MUSLIMS IS THE POLICY.... AND YOU'LL FEEL BETTER!
FIRST, THERE WAS THE TALIBAN. THEN, SADDAM AND THE WMD. THEN, WOMEN'S RIGHTS WAS HOT FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS. THEN, DEMOCRACY....
AND FINALLY, THE TOTALLY FLAWED "ELECTION" IN IRAQ....THE NIGHT WHEN SISTANI GAVE DUBYA "THE PURPLE FINGER.!
SOONER OR LATER, IT ALL COLLAPSES DOWN TO: "JUST KILL MORE MUSLIMS!'
IN TRUTH, DUBYA GOT THIS "STRATEGY" FROM SHARON AND THE LIKUD, WHO HAVE BEEN "JUST KILLING MUSLIMS" FOR FOUR DECADES...ALL TO NO APPARENT EFFECT.
SO, HOW CAN WE EXPECT DUBYA TO SUCCEED IN TWO YEARS...WHEN SHARON HAS BEEN AT IT FOR 40 YEARS?
There will never be a pro-American government in Iraq...or anywhere else in the middle east while Dubya and the Neocons are in power.
And those Red Staters who are sending their sons and daughters to die in Muslim Lands "for Jesus" had just better plan on having more kids!
OR..... VOTE DEMOCRATIC IN 2006/08!!
BECAUSE REMEMBER, .... STUPIDITY ALWAYS HAS CONSEQUENCES!! ALWAYS!
Any Questions.....?
Well, ....with Dubya in charge....GOOD LUCK!
In truth, the middle East policy of Dubya and the Neocons is in tatters... Worse, it was and is a total disaster that seems to have no clear way out!
Basically, Dubya went into the middle east FOR REVENGE OF 911.... GET THAT STRIAGHT AND A LOT OF THINGS "CLEAR UP."
US troops are perfectly content to JUST KILL MUSLIMS of any and all types....good, bad and indifferent....and every Muslim they kill is PAY BACK for 911. See todays story about how the US troops joined a fire fight and started killing the "good guys!" Yeah, well WHATEVER! THEY PROBABLY ALL DESEVED IT ....RIGHT?
JUST ADMIT THAT KILLING MUSLIMS IS THE POLICY.... AND YOU'LL FEEL BETTER!
FIRST, THERE WAS THE TALIBAN. THEN, SADDAM AND THE WMD. THEN, WOMEN'S RIGHTS WAS HOT FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS. THEN, DEMOCRACY....
AND FINALLY, THE TOTALLY FLAWED "ELECTION" IN IRAQ....THE NIGHT WHEN SISTANI GAVE DUBYA "THE PURPLE FINGER.!
SOONER OR LATER, IT ALL COLLAPSES DOWN TO: "JUST KILL MORE MUSLIMS!'
IN TRUTH, DUBYA GOT THIS "STRATEGY" FROM SHARON AND THE LIKUD, WHO HAVE BEEN "JUST KILLING MUSLIMS" FOR FOUR DECADES...ALL TO NO APPARENT EFFECT.
SO, HOW CAN WE EXPECT DUBYA TO SUCCEED IN TWO YEARS...WHEN SHARON HAS BEEN AT IT FOR 40 YEARS?
There will never be a pro-American government in Iraq...or anywhere else in the middle east while Dubya and the Neocons are in power.
And those Red Staters who are sending their sons and daughters to die in Muslim Lands "for Jesus" had just better plan on having more kids!
OR..... VOTE DEMOCRATIC IN 2006/08!!
BECAUSE REMEMBER, .... STUPIDITY ALWAYS HAS CONSEQUENCES!! ALWAYS!
Any Questions.....?
WHAT KRUGMAN MISSES......
Notes Paul Krugman in the Times today re the coming China Re-valutation:
"In particular, a rise in the yuan and other Asian currencies will eventually make U.S. manufacturing, which has lost three million jobs since 2000, more competitive."
What Kruggie misses is that; IT'S ALL OVER FOR MANUFACTURING IN THE US!
IT'S FINISHED! THE "FACTORY JOBS" AIN'T COMIN' BACK....GOT IT?
The real question that economists like Krugman need to address is:
NOW WHAT?
WHAT WILL THE US ECONOMY LOOK LIKE IN SAY, 10 YEARS, OR 20 YEARS,..... CAN WE CONTINUE TO IMPORT ALL OF OUR MANUFACTURED NEEDS. IS IT "OK" NOT TO HAVE AN INDUSTRIAL BASE (EXCEPT FOR WAR MAKING AND AREOSPACE)?
NOTE WELL:
SWEATERS AND SHOES AND TVs AND STEREOS AND CAMERAS WILL NEVER BE MADE IN THE US AGAIN! NEVER!
LET ME REPEAT: NEVER!
So the reall issue that economists and globalists need to address is simply:
WHAT COMES NEXT FOR THE US ECONOMY?
WE KNOW THAT DUBYA IS ONLY THINKING TILL THE END OF HIS TERM...HE LETS THE "GENIUSES" LIKE ROVE AND CHENEY DO THE LONG TERM THINKING.
BUT ROVE AND CHENEY'S ENTIRE STRAGEGY IS DEPENDANT ON THE "RELIGIOUS RIGHT" AND THE ABILITY TO KEEP THESE MORONS IN A CONSTANT STATE OF HYPOCRITICAL "MORAL OUTRAGE."
Frankly, once the economy starts to reflect "reality" that could be harder and harder to do.....
What then? Scapegoating? Do we "create a crisis?" Does the South try to leave the Union and create a "Moral City on a Hill?" ala....1860! Do we bring out the armbands and the marching music.....?
WHAT? WHAT?
"In particular, a rise in the yuan and other Asian currencies will eventually make U.S. manufacturing, which has lost three million jobs since 2000, more competitive."
What Kruggie misses is that; IT'S ALL OVER FOR MANUFACTURING IN THE US!
IT'S FINISHED! THE "FACTORY JOBS" AIN'T COMIN' BACK....GOT IT?
The real question that economists like Krugman need to address is:
NOW WHAT?
WHAT WILL THE US ECONOMY LOOK LIKE IN SAY, 10 YEARS, OR 20 YEARS,..... CAN WE CONTINUE TO IMPORT ALL OF OUR MANUFACTURED NEEDS. IS IT "OK" NOT TO HAVE AN INDUSTRIAL BASE (EXCEPT FOR WAR MAKING AND AREOSPACE)?
NOTE WELL:
SWEATERS AND SHOES AND TVs AND STEREOS AND CAMERAS WILL NEVER BE MADE IN THE US AGAIN! NEVER!
LET ME REPEAT: NEVER!
So the reall issue that economists and globalists need to address is simply:
WHAT COMES NEXT FOR THE US ECONOMY?
WE KNOW THAT DUBYA IS ONLY THINKING TILL THE END OF HIS TERM...HE LETS THE "GENIUSES" LIKE ROVE AND CHENEY DO THE LONG TERM THINKING.
BUT ROVE AND CHENEY'S ENTIRE STRAGEGY IS DEPENDANT ON THE "RELIGIOUS RIGHT" AND THE ABILITY TO KEEP THESE MORONS IN A CONSTANT STATE OF HYPOCRITICAL "MORAL OUTRAGE."
Frankly, once the economy starts to reflect "reality" that could be harder and harder to do.....
What then? Scapegoating? Do we "create a crisis?" Does the South try to leave the Union and create a "Moral City on a Hill?" ala....1860! Do we bring out the armbands and the marching music.....?
WHAT? WHAT?
Thursday, May 19, 2005
HEDGING FOR HEDGE FUNDS.....?
This HEDGE FUND MESS could be trouble....even for a market that can ignore the Dark Side. Revenge of the Macro-Economic Nerds looms.
THE BATTLE FOR DOW 10,000...to be continued.
Will the market masters "protect" Dow 10,000 AT ALL COSTS?
Consider:
THE STOP LOSSES UNDER DOW 10,000 COULD TAKE THIS MARKET TO 8,000 QUICKLY...IF THAT "MAGIC NUMBER" IS BREACHED....YET AGAIN!
And remember, this is a market that can ignore the "dark side" of the Bond Market for only so long.
Easy money for those who can get the market masters to pay up to keep Dow 10,000.....Ya suppose?
Consider:
THE STOP LOSSES UNDER DOW 10,000 COULD TAKE THIS MARKET TO 8,000 QUICKLY...IF THAT "MAGIC NUMBER" IS BREACHED....YET AGAIN!
And remember, this is a market that can ignore the "dark side" of the Bond Market for only so long.
Easy money for those who can get the market masters to pay up to keep Dow 10,000.....Ya suppose?
STOP THE OCCUPATIONS. STOP THE TERROR?
One thing we haven't tried with these wild and crazy Muslims is to quit occupying their lands!
If Sharon would simply leave the West Bank and Gaza and if Dubya would leave Iraq...who knows what would happen. Of course we all know that won't happen...because there is a hidden agenda here that few can talk about openly. BUT:
OCCUPATIONS HAVE A WAY OF MAKING PEOPLE CRAZY.....
MOST MUSLIM NATIONS ARE LIVING IN PEACE WITH THEIR NEIGHBORS NOW...for example Pakistan. And even Saddam was "put up" to attacking Iran by Rummy and Ray-Gun after the CIA meddled in Iranian politics back in the 1970's. Remember your history?
AS LONG AS THE "INFIDELS" OCCUPY MUSLIM NATIONS, PREDICTIONS OF MORE TERRORISM AND UNREST WILL BE A SELF-FULLFILLING PROPHESY.....
AND NOW IT'S SPREADING TO THE "-STANS" OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION....as the Empire Strikes Back.
If Sharon would simply leave the West Bank and Gaza and if Dubya would leave Iraq...who knows what would happen. Of course we all know that won't happen...because there is a hidden agenda here that few can talk about openly. BUT:
OCCUPATIONS HAVE A WAY OF MAKING PEOPLE CRAZY.....
MOST MUSLIM NATIONS ARE LIVING IN PEACE WITH THEIR NEIGHBORS NOW...for example Pakistan. And even Saddam was "put up" to attacking Iran by Rummy and Ray-Gun after the CIA meddled in Iranian politics back in the 1970's. Remember your history?
AS LONG AS THE "INFIDELS" OCCUPY MUSLIM NATIONS, PREDICTIONS OF MORE TERRORISM AND UNREST WILL BE A SELF-FULLFILLING PROPHESY.....
AND NOW IT'S SPREADING TO THE "-STANS" OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION....as the Empire Strikes Back.
MARKETS IGNORE THE DARK SIDE.....
The last few days have been a market that wants to go up....NO MATTER WHAT.
No amount of bad news would stop this market....but of course it is all RANGE BOUND and no one expects a big move to the up side here.
IN TRUTH THE MARKET SEEMS TO RALLY WILDLY ANYTIME IT GETS CLOSE TO 10,000. SO IS THIS THE "BATTLE FOR 10,000" THAT WE HAVE HAD SO OFTEN BEFORE.
YES!
Indeed, a great market "play" would be to automatically buy Dow 10,200....and then sell a few days later at 10,400.... IT'S ALMOST A SURE THING....THE MARKET MASTERS SIMPLY WILL NOT ALLOW THE DOW TO GO BELOW 10,000.
AND A SUB-10,000 DOW WOULD LIKELY TRIGGER MANY "STOP LOSSES" THAT COULD CAUSE GREAT UNPLEASANTNESS ON WALL STREET.
DOW 10,000 MUST BE HELD AT ALL COSTS.....AND IF IT IS BROKEN DOW 8,000 COULD BE THE NEXT STOP.
No amount of bad news would stop this market....but of course it is all RANGE BOUND and no one expects a big move to the up side here.
IN TRUTH THE MARKET SEEMS TO RALLY WILDLY ANYTIME IT GETS CLOSE TO 10,000. SO IS THIS THE "BATTLE FOR 10,000" THAT WE HAVE HAD SO OFTEN BEFORE.
YES!
Indeed, a great market "play" would be to automatically buy Dow 10,200....and then sell a few days later at 10,400.... IT'S ALMOST A SURE THING....THE MARKET MASTERS SIMPLY WILL NOT ALLOW THE DOW TO GO BELOW 10,000.
AND A SUB-10,000 DOW WOULD LIKELY TRIGGER MANY "STOP LOSSES" THAT COULD CAUSE GREAT UNPLEASANTNESS ON WALL STREET.
DOW 10,000 MUST BE HELD AT ALL COSTS.....AND IF IT IS BROKEN DOW 8,000 COULD BE THE NEXT STOP.
MANY REASONS FOR BOND ANOMALY.....
With the Fed ready willing and able to raise rates....bonds still are selling. But there are many reasons for the bond anomaly....see link.
Indeed, the SURE DROP in bonds seems to be part of the recent rally in stocks!
Nobody wants to hold bonds in this environment....yet everyone is buying them in light of the weak economy and hedge fund troubles....
All and all the best course of action seems to be BUY A SIX MONTH BANK CD at the best rate possible and let this situation resolve itself before making any big moves......
Remember a 25 BP per month....in six months Fed Funds are 1.5% higher! Greenspan seems to be going to 5.5%....but he may rest for a month after reaching 4%......
And the CHINA RE-VALUATION will cause HUGE LOSSES as the dollar is in effect devalued vis-a-vis the Chinese currency....are we to suppose that the Bank of China will just take their losses....and will this supposed devaluation be INFLATIONARY IN THE US....? My hunch is that it will be.
Indeed, the SURE DROP in bonds seems to be part of the recent rally in stocks!
Nobody wants to hold bonds in this environment....yet everyone is buying them in light of the weak economy and hedge fund troubles....
All and all the best course of action seems to be BUY A SIX MONTH BANK CD at the best rate possible and let this situation resolve itself before making any big moves......
Remember a 25 BP per month....in six months Fed Funds are 1.5% higher! Greenspan seems to be going to 5.5%....but he may rest for a month after reaching 4%......
And the CHINA RE-VALUATION will cause HUGE LOSSES as the dollar is in effect devalued vis-a-vis the Chinese currency....are we to suppose that the Bank of China will just take their losses....and will this supposed devaluation be INFLATIONARY IN THE US....? My hunch is that it will be.
Wednesday, May 18, 2005
ON THE BOND ANOMALY.....
This is the dog that refuses to bark so far..... But when it does it's likely to BITE TOO! Everyone is supporting the unsupportable US Bond market out of fear of what comes next....
LOSSES ON BONDS ARE NOW "AN EXTREME CERTAINTY!"
LOSSES ON BONDS ARE NOW "AN EXTREME CERTAINTY!"
NEWSWEEK GETS 'RATHERED.'
The Newsweek retraction of the Koran Desecration Story is similar to the Dan Rather affair in that it was the "sourcing" of the information, NOT THE TRUTH of the story that counted most after publication......
Curiously, the issue of Bush in the National Gaurd was dropped after the Rather Affair...when the REAL question morphed into the "ethics" of the networks.
So too, the Koran story is morphing into yet another Republican attack on the media.....WITHOUT REGARD to the truth of the allegations, which seem consistent with how things have been done in the US concentration camps for Muslims recently.
THE MEDIA HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY "RATHERED" AGAIN.....SO WATCH FOR THIS TECHNIQUE TO BE USED OVER AND OVER BY THE ROVIAN REPUBLICANS....GOING FORWARD.
If you have "something to hide" LEAK IT IN FLAWED FORM TO THE MEDIA.....THEN ATTACK THE MEDIA FOR THE FLAW!
IT'S CLASSIC ROVE.....THE BEST PLACE TO HIDE THE TRUTH IS IN PLAIN SIGHT!! THEN ATTACK THE "EVIL" AND BIAS MEDIA!!
Reporters Beware: If someone approaches you with a gotcha scoop that is too good to be true! ......IT'S PROBABLY A SET UP!
Curiously, the issue of Bush in the National Gaurd was dropped after the Rather Affair...when the REAL question morphed into the "ethics" of the networks.
So too, the Koran story is morphing into yet another Republican attack on the media.....WITHOUT REGARD to the truth of the allegations, which seem consistent with how things have been done in the US concentration camps for Muslims recently.
THE MEDIA HAS BEEN SUCCESSFULLY "RATHERED" AGAIN.....SO WATCH FOR THIS TECHNIQUE TO BE USED OVER AND OVER BY THE ROVIAN REPUBLICANS....GOING FORWARD.
If you have "something to hide" LEAK IT IN FLAWED FORM TO THE MEDIA.....THEN ATTACK THE MEDIA FOR THE FLAW!
IT'S CLASSIC ROVE.....THE BEST PLACE TO HIDE THE TRUTH IS IN PLAIN SIGHT!! THEN ATTACK THE "EVIL" AND BIAS MEDIA!!
Reporters Beware: If someone approaches you with a gotcha scoop that is too good to be true! ......IT'S PROBABLY A SET UP!
IN AN ODD MARKET INFLATION IS 'GOOD FOR' THE DOLLAR
Well it doesn't get much odder than yesterday..... After being down all day the market spiked up 80 at the last hour because, "China would not be punished for currency manipulation."
Of course everyone knows that China is manipulating...but no matter... the situation between China and the US is now so toxic that any change could cause economic shock.
And amazingly INFLATION IS GOOD FOR THE DOLLAR!
Why? Because it means that the Fed MUST continue raising rates....perhaps Big Time....and that will increase the "spread" between Euroland bonds and US Bonds...thus aiding the dollar.
Of course everyone ignores the Massive deficits and a very expensive/unwinnable War.... and the resulting middle eastern adventures of the Neocons...!
What is meant by the market is that in the VERY short term "inflation is good for the dollar."
Longer term? .....Well, who thinks long term these days....?
THIS MARKET SEEMS CONTENT TO LIVE DAY TO DAY, WITH NO THOUGHT FOR THE ECONOMIC REALITIES, OR THE LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE REALITIES......
TRADE IT IF YOU DARE....
BUT "INVEST IN IT"....? NO WAY!!
Of course everyone knows that China is manipulating...but no matter... the situation between China and the US is now so toxic that any change could cause economic shock.
And amazingly INFLATION IS GOOD FOR THE DOLLAR!
Why? Because it means that the Fed MUST continue raising rates....perhaps Big Time....and that will increase the "spread" between Euroland bonds and US Bonds...thus aiding the dollar.
Of course everyone ignores the Massive deficits and a very expensive/unwinnable War.... and the resulting middle eastern adventures of the Neocons...!
What is meant by the market is that in the VERY short term "inflation is good for the dollar."
Longer term? .....Well, who thinks long term these days....?
THIS MARKET SEEMS CONTENT TO LIVE DAY TO DAY, WITH NO THOUGHT FOR THE ECONOMIC REALITIES, OR THE LONG TERM CONSEQUENCES OF THOSE REALITIES......
TRADE IT IF YOU DARE....
BUT "INVEST IN IT"....? NO WAY!!
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
SPIN, SPIN, SPIN.....
The market touts and shills were out in force.....but the futures are still down. And the rest of the world seems to be in better touch with reality than Wall Street..... It's all downhill from here....but when will the Street realize this.... Watch for reality to set in in the bond market first.
Monday, May 16, 2005
TOP 20 NEWSPAPERS AND READERSHIP TRENDS
1. USA Today, 2,281,831, up 0.05 percent
2. The Wall Street Journal, 2,070,498, down 0.8 percent
3. The New York Times, 1,136,433, up 0.24 percent
4. Los Angeles Times, 907,997, down 6.5 percent
5. The Washington Post, 751,871, down 2.7 percent
6. New York Daily News, 735,536, down 1.5 percent
7. New York Post, 678,086, up 0.01 percent
8. Chicago Tribune, 573,744, down 6.6 percent
9. Houston Chronicle, 527,744, down 3.9 percent
10. San Francisco Chronicle, 468,739, down 6.1 percent
11. The Arizona Republic, 452,016, down 3.2 percent
12. The Boston Globe, 434,330, down 3.9 percent
13. The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J., 394,767, down 1.6 percent
14. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 391,373, down 2.4 percent
15. Star Tribune of Minneapolis-St. Paul, 378,316, up 0.33 percent
16. The Philadelphia Inquirer, 364,974, down 3.0 percent
17. The Plain Dealer, Cleveland, 348,416, down 5.2 percent
18. Detroit Free Press, 347,447, down 2.0 percent
19. St. Petersburg Times (Florida), 337,515, down 3.2 percent
20. The Oregonian, Portland, 335,980, down 1.8 percent
Who reads the newspapers these days.......?
2. The Wall Street Journal, 2,070,498, down 0.8 percent
3. The New York Times, 1,136,433, up 0.24 percent
4. Los Angeles Times, 907,997, down 6.5 percent
5. The Washington Post, 751,871, down 2.7 percent
6. New York Daily News, 735,536, down 1.5 percent
7. New York Post, 678,086, up 0.01 percent
8. Chicago Tribune, 573,744, down 6.6 percent
9. Houston Chronicle, 527,744, down 3.9 percent
10. San Francisco Chronicle, 468,739, down 6.1 percent
11. The Arizona Republic, 452,016, down 3.2 percent
12. The Boston Globe, 434,330, down 3.9 percent
13. The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J., 394,767, down 1.6 percent
14. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 391,373, down 2.4 percent
15. Star Tribune of Minneapolis-St. Paul, 378,316, up 0.33 percent
16. The Philadelphia Inquirer, 364,974, down 3.0 percent
17. The Plain Dealer, Cleveland, 348,416, down 5.2 percent
18. Detroit Free Press, 347,447, down 2.0 percent
19. St. Petersburg Times (Florida), 337,515, down 3.2 percent
20. The Oregonian, Portland, 335,980, down 1.8 percent
Who reads the newspapers these days.......?
FOREIGNERS DUMP US ASSETS......
Dollar weaker.....can Greenspan help.....? Of course! But longer term the War and the Deficits will sink the dollar again. Either stop the wild spending are prepare for 15% interest rates in about two years....!
OK, OK, THE KORAN WASN'T FLUSHED DOWN THE TOILET....WHATEVER!
Any port in a storm.....all is sweetness and light. What....ever!
LEAVE NOW.....
Paul Krugman in the Times says:
"In effect, America has been taken hostage. Nobody wants to take responsibility for the terrible scenes that will surely unfold if we leave (even though terrible scenes are unfolding while we're there)."
BUT WAIT.....WHAT "TERRIBLE SCENES" WILL SURELY OCCUR? HOW DO WE KNOW THIS?
It is very possible that the Iraqis will simply "work it out," IF the US military "bugs out."
After all these people invented government 4000 years ago.....
This is not Sub Saharan Africa....or Somalia.
My hunch is that if the US pulled out of Iraq tomorrow....the three "ethnic regions" would quickly reassert themselves...and after a short period some "arrangement" would be made.
To be sure, Sunnis would not "rule" in Shia or Kurd areas. Nor Kurds in Shia areas...etc. etc.
Everything would "revert" to local control and there would likely be fighting INTRA-GROUP to see who prevails....but even that would be preferable to having the US "infidels" attempting to dicate the outcome.....which is what we have now with truly terrible consequences.
"In effect, America has been taken hostage. Nobody wants to take responsibility for the terrible scenes that will surely unfold if we leave (even though terrible scenes are unfolding while we're there)."
BUT WAIT.....WHAT "TERRIBLE SCENES" WILL SURELY OCCUR? HOW DO WE KNOW THIS?
It is very possible that the Iraqis will simply "work it out," IF the US military "bugs out."
After all these people invented government 4000 years ago.....
This is not Sub Saharan Africa....or Somalia.
My hunch is that if the US pulled out of Iraq tomorrow....the three "ethnic regions" would quickly reassert themselves...and after a short period some "arrangement" would be made.
To be sure, Sunnis would not "rule" in Shia or Kurd areas. Nor Kurds in Shia areas...etc. etc.
Everything would "revert" to local control and there would likely be fighting INTRA-GROUP to see who prevails....but even that would be preferable to having the US "infidels" attempting to dicate the outcome.....which is what we have now with truly terrible consequences.
ENABLING FUNDAMENTALISTS IN UZBEKISTAN?
You have to wonder what Dubya and the Neocons really want in the middle and near east....they seem to be ENABLING the radical fundamentalists at every turn....first in Iraq with the Shia, now in the "-stans" with the anti-Soviet stance against the Islamists....
Sunday, May 15, 2005
MONDAY MORNING FUTURES....STILL GRIM AGAIN
Another week in the markets starts to shape up...AND THE FUTURES ARE GRIM.
Is the American consumer finished.....rate gloom, real estate bubble trouble and the doors to the bankruptcy court are chained shut for many......
Lately though the markets have been relying on "Deus Ex Machina" events to SAVE THE DAY....! THE MARKET IS DESPERATE FOR "GOOD NEWS" AND ANYTHING WILL DO.....THIS MARKET "WANT'S TO" GO UP...BUT IT DOESN'T KNOW WHY.
Is the American consumer finished.....rate gloom, real estate bubble trouble and the doors to the bankruptcy court are chained shut for many......
Lately though the markets have been relying on "Deus Ex Machina" events to SAVE THE DAY....! THE MARKET IS DESPERATE FOR "GOOD NEWS" AND ANYTHING WILL DO.....THIS MARKET "WANT'S TO" GO UP...BUT IT DOESN'T KNOW WHY.
UZBEK CHAOS....NEOCONS REAP WHAT THEY SOW
Is anyone really suprised that the near and middle east are becoming unstable?
The Neocons have upset the apple cart and now who knows where the apples are going to roll.....?
If the entire region goes haywire....the US may have be invite the Russians back in to secure the region....unless of course Dubya goes for a military draft.
The Neocons have upset the apple cart and now who knows where the apples are going to roll.....?
If the entire region goes haywire....the US may have be invite the Russians back in to secure the region....unless of course Dubya goes for a military draft.
BEWARE OF POOR REPUBLICANS
Says David Brooks in the NYTimes:
" The G.O.P. succeeds because it is seen as the party of optimistic individualism."
Well maybe, but a little Gay Bashing helps...and the Jesus Talk doesn't hurt either.
As to the virtues of the lower middle class, I would note that they are also the ones who readily joined the Nazi Party in Germany back in the 1930's.
And to the extent that Republican elites have been playing to the "dark side" of the lower middle class, they are playing with fire.....
As to the social "beliefs" of these poor Republicans....also remember that they were coming off of eight years of CLINTON PROSPERITY and are only now realizing that the Republican economic agenda does not benefit their long term interests....by 2006/08 these Jesus Republicans should be ready to "go back" to the Progressive Agenda.
JOBS, HEALTH CARE AND IRAQ WILL DO WONDERS FOR DEMOCRATS IN THE COMING MONTHS AND YEARS....AND THOSE ARE ISSUES THAT DUBYA & CO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO STEAL OR SPIN NEXT TIME.
" The G.O.P. succeeds because it is seen as the party of optimistic individualism."
Well maybe, but a little Gay Bashing helps...and the Jesus Talk doesn't hurt either.
As to the virtues of the lower middle class, I would note that they are also the ones who readily joined the Nazi Party in Germany back in the 1930's.
And to the extent that Republican elites have been playing to the "dark side" of the lower middle class, they are playing with fire.....
As to the social "beliefs" of these poor Republicans....also remember that they were coming off of eight years of CLINTON PROSPERITY and are only now realizing that the Republican economic agenda does not benefit their long term interests....by 2006/08 these Jesus Republicans should be ready to "go back" to the Progressive Agenda.
JOBS, HEALTH CARE AND IRAQ WILL DO WONDERS FOR DEMOCRATS IN THE COMING MONTHS AND YEARS....AND THOSE ARE ISSUES THAT DUBYA & CO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO STEAL OR SPIN NEXT TIME.
Friday, May 13, 2005
NEOCON CHAOS LOOMS.....
In Uzbekistan. And In Iraq....... And in Afghanistan.... Alas we reap what we sow. But what did they expect....sweetness and light? What have the Neocons unleashed? If "democratization" is just another word for "tribalization" or disintegration.... big trouble could loom. A wave of decentralization could make the struggle with terrorism even harder...as boutique states are set up for every kind of ethnic and religious persuasion.
GREENSPAN'S SECRET WEAPON
For all of the GLOOM AND DOOM about the state of the US economy, Greenspan does have one secret weapon....HIGHER RATES.
HIGHER RATES IN THE US WILL "CURE" MANY PERCIEVED ILLS....LIKE THE WEAK DOLLAR, AND POOR DEMAND FOR NEW BOND ISSUANCE.
But of course there is a downside.....SLOWER GROWTH AND AN ALTERNATIVE TO STOCK INVESTING......
Still in the VERY SHORT AND NARROW TERM some of these trends play off on each other positively.....demand for the dollar encourages Wall Street and boosts stocks.
When stocks sell off....bonds are bought and rates go down. etc. etc.
BUT FOR THE LONG TERM INVESTOR...THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT HAS TO BE TAKEN AS A WHOLE...A LITTLE "BIG PICTURE" THINKING IS NECESSARY.
TO WIT;
1. INTEREST RATES ARE GOING UP...AND THAT IS BAD FOR STOCK INVESTING.
2. THE DOLLAR IS STRUCTURALLY WEAK BECAUSE OF THE DEBT AND DEFICITS...AND HIGHER RATES WILL ONLY POSTPONE THE DAY OF RECKONING.
3. THE RISE OF CHINA AND INDIA IS NOT GOOD FOR COMMODITY PRICES...THEY ARE GOING UP AS MORE AND MORE PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF THE WEST SEEK MIDDLE CLASS STATUS.
4. THE AMERICAN IMPERIALIST WAR BUDGET WILL EVENTUALLY BANKRUPT THE NATION UNLESS THE PROGRESSIVES CAN REVERSE THE TREND AND USE THAT MONEY FOR DOMESTIC INTRASTRUCTURE AND OTHER INCENTIVES TO DO BUSINESS INSIDE THE US....LIKE NATIONAL HEALTH CARE FOR US EMPLOYERS.
ALL ECONOMIES ARE LOCAL....BUT THEY ARE ALSO LIKE THOSE RUSSIAN DOLLS THAT "NEST" ONE INSIDE THE OTHER.....THE LOCAL ECONOMY DEPENDS ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY, THAT DEPENDS ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY, THAT DEPENDS ON THE HEMISPHERIC ECONOMY AND TRADE BLOCS....
ALAS, THE TRULY GLOBAL ECONOMY IS A MYTH IN THE MINDS OF THE GREEDY INTERNATIONALISTS AND THEIR MEDIA SHILLS LIKE TOM FRIEDMAN AT THE NYTIMES...ETAL.
HIGHER RATES IN THE US WILL "CURE" MANY PERCIEVED ILLS....LIKE THE WEAK DOLLAR, AND POOR DEMAND FOR NEW BOND ISSUANCE.
But of course there is a downside.....SLOWER GROWTH AND AN ALTERNATIVE TO STOCK INVESTING......
Still in the VERY SHORT AND NARROW TERM some of these trends play off on each other positively.....demand for the dollar encourages Wall Street and boosts stocks.
When stocks sell off....bonds are bought and rates go down. etc. etc.
BUT FOR THE LONG TERM INVESTOR...THE MACRO ENVIRONMENT HAS TO BE TAKEN AS A WHOLE...A LITTLE "BIG PICTURE" THINKING IS NECESSARY.
TO WIT;
1. INTEREST RATES ARE GOING UP...AND THAT IS BAD FOR STOCK INVESTING.
2. THE DOLLAR IS STRUCTURALLY WEAK BECAUSE OF THE DEBT AND DEFICITS...AND HIGHER RATES WILL ONLY POSTPONE THE DAY OF RECKONING.
3. THE RISE OF CHINA AND INDIA IS NOT GOOD FOR COMMODITY PRICES...THEY ARE GOING UP AS MORE AND MORE PEOPLE OUTSIDE OF THE WEST SEEK MIDDLE CLASS STATUS.
4. THE AMERICAN IMPERIALIST WAR BUDGET WILL EVENTUALLY BANKRUPT THE NATION UNLESS THE PROGRESSIVES CAN REVERSE THE TREND AND USE THAT MONEY FOR DOMESTIC INTRASTRUCTURE AND OTHER INCENTIVES TO DO BUSINESS INSIDE THE US....LIKE NATIONAL HEALTH CARE FOR US EMPLOYERS.
ALL ECONOMIES ARE LOCAL....BUT THEY ARE ALSO LIKE THOSE RUSSIAN DOLLS THAT "NEST" ONE INSIDE THE OTHER.....THE LOCAL ECONOMY DEPENDS ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY, THAT DEPENDS ON THE NATIONAL ECONOMY, THAT DEPENDS ON THE HEMISPHERIC ECONOMY AND TRADE BLOCS....
ALAS, THE TRULY GLOBAL ECONOMY IS A MYTH IN THE MINDS OF THE GREEDY INTERNATIONALISTS AND THEIR MEDIA SHILLS LIKE TOM FRIEDMAN AT THE NYTIMES...ETAL.
POLYESTER LUMBERJACK...or WALMART CHIC ON THE ROPES
Just when you thought Kmart Chic was dead....along comes Walmart and the polyester lumberjack.....!
Walmart has never "done clothing" well...in that sense they are the heirs of Kmart. As to Tar-jay...well, let's just say I'd shop at Kohl's first...
An interesting statistic for the Walmart/Target matchup would be "distance driven" to get to the stores.... Target tends to be in larger metro areas where shopping is concentrated in malls and big box locations.
Walmart tends to be stand-alones in rural or exurban locations....and Walmart draws from the lower end of the income brackets....the so-called "Bubba Republicans" and born agains....who are not known for their keen fashion sense.
On a bright note, the decline in Walmart sales probably helped with the trade deficit recently...for that at least we can be thankful.
And, Hey look, the Bulls are already back on their feet today,.....the trip to the slaughter house will be postponed for yet another day.
Perhaps....?
Walmart has never "done clothing" well...in that sense they are the heirs of Kmart. As to Tar-jay...well, let's just say I'd shop at Kohl's first...
An interesting statistic for the Walmart/Target matchup would be "distance driven" to get to the stores.... Target tends to be in larger metro areas where shopping is concentrated in malls and big box locations.
Walmart tends to be stand-alones in rural or exurban locations....and Walmart draws from the lower end of the income brackets....the so-called "Bubba Republicans" and born agains....who are not known for their keen fashion sense.
On a bright note, the decline in Walmart sales probably helped with the trade deficit recently...for that at least we can be thankful.
And, Hey look, the Bulls are already back on their feet today,.....the trip to the slaughter house will be postponed for yet another day.
Perhaps....?
Wednesday, May 11, 2005
I DON'T TRUST CISCO...I NEVER DID.
Just more happy talk from the usual suspects..... Cisco's claim to be in their own little world simply does not ring true.
TRADERS DESPERATE AMID THE CHAOS.....
Wall Street is desperate for Happy Talk...anything will do.
But the Chaos and confusion just keeps coming....now the Chinese are ready to devalue their currency....with all that that implies.
The Great Tectonic plates of global trade are moving.....but Wall Street longs for the happy talk of the bubble daze when Greenspan ruled the world.
It's finished.....
But the Chaos and confusion just keeps coming....now the Chinese are ready to devalue their currency....with all that that implies.
The Great Tectonic plates of global trade are moving.....but Wall Street longs for the happy talk of the bubble daze when Greenspan ruled the world.
It's finished.....
WILL IRAQ BREAK APART.....
Clearly THERE are FIVE PARTIES in the Iraq Mess now. Kurds, Shia, Sunni, Jihadi and Americans....... Total Chaos or the eventual partition of Iraq is the only answer.
And what of these Koran descration riots in Afganhistan....is Karzai finally giving up the fight?
There is increasing evidence that "democratization" is not working in the middle east and that Muslims are seeing through to the real goal of installing US puppet governments in the region. This will only enflame an already bad situation.
Democracy at the point of a gun or through bombing will not work.
And what of these Koran descration riots in Afganhistan....is Karzai finally giving up the fight?
There is increasing evidence that "democratization" is not working in the middle east and that Muslims are seeing through to the real goal of installing US puppet governments in the region. This will only enflame an already bad situation.
Democracy at the point of a gun or through bombing will not work.
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
TRADE GAP SINKS DOLLAR AND BOND
And what is the bad news.....? Well oil was up a bit. The Dow should be breaking below 10,000 soon...and probably for quite a while IF the "real economics" starts to FINALLY kick in.
WHAT'S GOOD FOR GM.....?
What's good for GM is STILL good for America.....and what's good for Walmart is PROBABLY bad for America.......
WE NEED A SINGLE PAYER NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PLAN....NOW.
As many hedge fund managers will no doubt attest today......as GM BONDS TANK THE MARKETS.
WE NEED A SINGLE PAYER NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PLAN....NOW.
As many hedge fund managers will no doubt attest today......as GM BONDS TANK THE MARKETS.
NO FUTURES IN TODAYS MARKET
The markets have that calm before the reality sets in feel. Higher rates. Higher oil. Post Bubble over expansion from the hyper-liquidity experiment. An expensive and unwinnable war. Debt and Deficits out of control.....it's all so 70's!
Yet the market is a "living thing," it will continue to "breathe"......but the ying yan of it's cycles are unlikely to inspire investors to buy.
Even as CD bank rates go up every week now.......
Yet the market is a "living thing," it will continue to "breathe"......but the ying yan of it's cycles are unlikely to inspire investors to buy.
Even as CD bank rates go up every week now.......
Monday, May 9, 2005
OIL STUCK AT $50....? SMALL CAR MANIA....?
Oil seems stuck at $50.....even though gas is down slightly at the pump in most regions....probably from that little price drop a few weeks ago when everyone thought the G-Man had the guts to "go for 50bp."
Anyway an upward drift in gas now would have dangerous effects on summer tourism which many states rely on greatly.
And, (is it me) or are there really more small cars and trucks on the road....suddenly it seems I can see over the tops of everyone! And a few weeks ago I was about level with most traffic on the road?? Many of these "new" small cars seem to be older....could they have been stored in the garage for years an only now brought back into service?
Anyway an upward drift in gas now would have dangerous effects on summer tourism which many states rely on greatly.
And, (is it me) or are there really more small cars and trucks on the road....suddenly it seems I can see over the tops of everyone! And a few weeks ago I was about level with most traffic on the road?? Many of these "new" small cars seem to be older....could they have been stored in the garage for years an only now brought back into service?
THE STREET WANTS MARKET RISE.....
But who will play this game.....in a rising rate environment? It's just a total sucker bet now. Revenge of mom and pop going back to bank CDs....now that Greedspan has been exposed as a political hack and not an economic prophet?
DUBYA'S GIFT TO OSAMA.....
Notes Bob Herbert in the NYTimes today:
"The C.I.A. was warned that Curveball was as crazy as a Peter Sellers character, but the administration wanted this war in the way that a small child wants candy. Curveball's information was swallowed whole."
Well they GOT their war. But a more interesting question is how does it all end?
The longer the war continues the more it looks like a Christian-Jewish assault on the Empire of Islam. Indeed, the "coalition" is almost all English Speaking now.....making the cultural case even more glaring.
The BUSH MISTAKE will likely destabilize the Middle East for decades to come.....AND make Muslims more likely to adopt the Radical Islamist Ideas of Osama & Co. Or, does anyone still believe that having Christian Killers in Araby will "change hearts and minds" longer term?
THE WORST PART OF THIS WAR IS THAT IT PLAYS RIGHT INTO OSAMA'S GAME PLAN FOR THE RESURGENCE OF RADICAL ISLAM IN THE MIDDLE EAST......THAT WAS DUBYA'S GIFT TO OSAMA.
"The C.I.A. was warned that Curveball was as crazy as a Peter Sellers character, but the administration wanted this war in the way that a small child wants candy. Curveball's information was swallowed whole."
Well they GOT their war. But a more interesting question is how does it all end?
The longer the war continues the more it looks like a Christian-Jewish assault on the Empire of Islam. Indeed, the "coalition" is almost all English Speaking now.....making the cultural case even more glaring.
The BUSH MISTAKE will likely destabilize the Middle East for decades to come.....AND make Muslims more likely to adopt the Radical Islamist Ideas of Osama & Co. Or, does anyone still believe that having Christian Killers in Araby will "change hearts and minds" longer term?
THE WORST PART OF THIS WAR IS THAT IT PLAYS RIGHT INTO OSAMA'S GAME PLAN FOR THE RESURGENCE OF RADICAL ISLAM IN THE MIDDLE EAST......THAT WAS DUBYA'S GIFT TO OSAMA.
Sunday, May 8, 2005
GOBLET OF FIRE TRAILERS.....
Harry Potter Trailers......for Goblet of Fire. (Need Quicktime).
And on the subject of magic....THE GREENSPAN SPEECH!
And on the subject of magic....THE GREENSPAN SPEECH!
GREEN ZONE GOVERNMENT.....?
The "Green Zone" Government will never govern in Iraq....so what good are they? The notion that the Sunnis will join in anytime soon is simply wishful thinking.
The fact that Sunnis are now complaining of "tokenism" indicates that the entire process might have to start over.... Ad to that the fact that the Americans are despised by all sides and there is a situation that is as nearly untenable as it can be....the elections were not effective, the Sunni boycott worked, no matter how much Bush & Co seek to deny it.
The Green Zone Government will never govern.
The fact that Sunnis are now complaining of "tokenism" indicates that the entire process might have to start over.... Ad to that the fact that the Americans are despised by all sides and there is a situation that is as nearly untenable as it can be....the elections were not effective, the Sunni boycott worked, no matter how much Bush & Co seek to deny it.
The Green Zone Government will never govern.
TROOPS FLUSH KORAN DOWN TOILET....!
Hmmm.....winning friends and influencing people. Or guarantee of more terrorism?
And who says there's no running water in Iraq....!
And who says there's no running water in Iraq....!
GRANNY GET YOUR GUN.....
Seniors turn to crime to support themselves.....? Shades of things to come.
BUSH WILL ALWAYS DEFEND HIS ELITE.
David Brooks babbles in the Times this morning thus:
"This is what's infected the Tories in Britain, and it's infected the Democrats here. When a Republican president embraces progressive indexing, something big is happening. When the Democrats oppose it, you know their party has betrayed an animating ideal."
First, Dubya did not "embrace" indexing until it was clear that his PRIVATE ACCOUNTS SCHEME had flopped terribly.....he was embarassed into saying somthing different.
Second, there has been a feeding frenzy among the Republican Rich in Washington and Wall Street that has looted the US economy to the bone...so a few "concessions" were in order. Especially since nothing is "for sure."
And the "concessions" were coming at the expense of the upper middle class who are not big contributors at $10,000 a plate Republican fund raisers.
Third, a means test is probably the next best way to "fix" the Social Security problem if you don't want to use tax hikes.
And means testing does reflect the true nature of the program...namely SOCIAL INSURANCE, NOT A "TRUST FUND" FOR THE BETTER OFF.
BUSH & CO ARE GOING TO BE "HAVING EPIPHANIES" FOR THE REST OF HIS TERM IN OFFICE.....BUT THE MERE FACT THAT REPUBLICAN LOOTING IS "SLOWING DOWN" A BIT BECAUSE THERE IS ALMOST NOTHING LEFT TO LOOT IS NOT GROUNDS FOR PRAISE......
Almost all of the Stock Market's recent "Hosanna Moments" have been two edged swords...."things" are only "good" because the WALL STREET SPIN MACHINE is on the job 24.7......
THE BUSH PRESIDENCY IS IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL NOW....AS WILL BE BEST SEEN AFTER THE 2006 ELECTIONS.
"This is what's infected the Tories in Britain, and it's infected the Democrats here. When a Republican president embraces progressive indexing, something big is happening. When the Democrats oppose it, you know their party has betrayed an animating ideal."
First, Dubya did not "embrace" indexing until it was clear that his PRIVATE ACCOUNTS SCHEME had flopped terribly.....he was embarassed into saying somthing different.
Second, there has been a feeding frenzy among the Republican Rich in Washington and Wall Street that has looted the US economy to the bone...so a few "concessions" were in order. Especially since nothing is "for sure."
And the "concessions" were coming at the expense of the upper middle class who are not big contributors at $10,000 a plate Republican fund raisers.
Third, a means test is probably the next best way to "fix" the Social Security problem if you don't want to use tax hikes.
And means testing does reflect the true nature of the program...namely SOCIAL INSURANCE, NOT A "TRUST FUND" FOR THE BETTER OFF.
BUSH & CO ARE GOING TO BE "HAVING EPIPHANIES" FOR THE REST OF HIS TERM IN OFFICE.....BUT THE MERE FACT THAT REPUBLICAN LOOTING IS "SLOWING DOWN" A BIT BECAUSE THERE IS ALMOST NOTHING LEFT TO LOOT IS NOT GROUNDS FOR PRAISE......
Almost all of the Stock Market's recent "Hosanna Moments" have been two edged swords...."things" are only "good" because the WALL STREET SPIN MACHINE is on the job 24.7......
THE BUSH PRESIDENCY IS IN A DOWNWARD SPIRAL NOW....AS WILL BE BEST SEEN AFTER THE 2006 ELECTIONS.
Saturday, May 7, 2005
BUSH SPANKS PUTIN....
But in truth wasn't the "cold war" really an agreement between the allies to keep Germany divided for a generation? How could that be achieved without Russian domination of Eastern Europe....
JOBS: REVENGE OF THE GARDEN CENTERS?
Who will win the Summer Sweeps...
garden centers or amusement parks? Both were apparently "hiring" last month.
If gas stays high many people will stay home and do yard work on the weekend....and the amusement and hospitality business will suffer....but garden centers will prosper.
It seems that many people are "multi-tasking" with their car now...no one turns the key unless there are three tasks to be done.
After all, if you live in the country it costs you about $5 just to turn the ignition on your car! And gas is more expensive out in the boondocks too.
The absolute necessity for CHEAP GAS during the summer "tourist/driving season" can not be over stated.
Amazingly, a few weeks ago it seems that everyone was driving a big SUV.....now I'm seeing a lot of smaller cars and light trucks on the road.... Is IT finally happening?
NO WONDER DETROIT IS IN THE JUNK YARD.
garden centers or amusement parks? Both were apparently "hiring" last month.
If gas stays high many people will stay home and do yard work on the weekend....and the amusement and hospitality business will suffer....but garden centers will prosper.
It seems that many people are "multi-tasking" with their car now...no one turns the key unless there are three tasks to be done.
After all, if you live in the country it costs you about $5 just to turn the ignition on your car! And gas is more expensive out in the boondocks too.
The absolute necessity for CHEAP GAS during the summer "tourist/driving season" can not be over stated.
Amazingly, a few weeks ago it seems that everyone was driving a big SUV.....now I'm seeing a lot of smaller cars and light trucks on the road.... Is IT finally happening?
NO WONDER DETROIT IS IN THE JUNK YARD.
A SORRY STATE....THE POST DOLLAR WORLD
It's a sad state of affairs
when a South American Banana Republic has a more promising stock market than the US....!
But it is not unexpected, after all, the last 20 years have been ONE BUBBLE AFTER ANOTHER for the US economy and markets....even unto the recent bizzaro "One Percent Solution" from the Fed. A Sorry state indeed.
Here's the problem:
THE ERA OF GREENSPANOMICS IS OVER. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS HAD IT'S "BUBBLE FLING" AND AS A RESULT THE US DOLLAR IS NOW TRASHED....
THE ECONOMIC TECTONIC PLATES ARE GOING TO START SHIFTING MIGHTILY IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS....
Just as the period from 1931 to 1961 was about the DECLINE OF STERLING...so too, the period from 1971 to 2001 was about the DECLINE OF THE DOLLAR.
It's all but over....except the speculation on WHAT COMES NEXT.
Perhaps Asia is next....but Euroland is still in the race to become the NEW POST-DOLLAR WORLD CURRENCY.
Postscript: What part of this don't you understand....?
when a South American Banana Republic has a more promising stock market than the US....!
But it is not unexpected, after all, the last 20 years have been ONE BUBBLE AFTER ANOTHER for the US economy and markets....even unto the recent bizzaro "One Percent Solution" from the Fed. A Sorry state indeed.
Here's the problem:
THE ERA OF GREENSPANOMICS IS OVER. THE GLOBAL ECONOMY HAS HAD IT'S "BUBBLE FLING" AND AS A RESULT THE US DOLLAR IS NOW TRASHED....
THE ECONOMIC TECTONIC PLATES ARE GOING TO START SHIFTING MIGHTILY IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS....
Just as the period from 1931 to 1961 was about the DECLINE OF STERLING...so too, the period from 1971 to 2001 was about the DECLINE OF THE DOLLAR.
It's all but over....except the speculation on WHAT COMES NEXT.
Perhaps Asia is next....but Euroland is still in the race to become the NEW POST-DOLLAR WORLD CURRENCY.
Postscript: What part of this don't you understand....?
IRAQ'S NEW GOVERNMENT...OF THE GREEN ZONE!
News that Iraq has a "new government" is afoot... But the real question is: CAN THEY GOVERN OUTSIDE OF THE GREEN ZONE...
Indeed, can ANY member of the "new government" even venture OUTSIDE the Green Zone...for any reason?
As long as the Sunnis and the Jihadists think the new government is illegitimate...problems will continue.
It is starting to look like the NIGHT OF THE PURPLE FINGER was nothing but a sham. The Kurds voted only on condition of oil an independance.... The Nice Shia voted because they COULD WIN WITH US MILITARY BACKING. The the Sunnis stayed home.
And the fourth faction in the equation THE JIHADISTS were READY WILLING AND ABLE to turn Iraq into a Jihadi "shooting gallery" for ANYONE in the Muslim World who wanted to take a shot at killing a REAL AMERICAN on the cheap. No visa or airline ticket required.
EXACTLY HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE BEFORE THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION THROWS IN THE TOWEL IN IRAQ AND GIVES UP ON "PERMANENT BASES" NEAR THE OIL FIELDS....?
THAT'S HOW LONG THIS INSURGENCY WILL LAST...AND NOT A MINUTE LONGER.
Indeed, can ANY member of the "new government" even venture OUTSIDE the Green Zone...for any reason?
As long as the Sunnis and the Jihadists think the new government is illegitimate...problems will continue.
It is starting to look like the NIGHT OF THE PURPLE FINGER was nothing but a sham. The Kurds voted only on condition of oil an independance.... The Nice Shia voted because they COULD WIN WITH US MILITARY BACKING. The the Sunnis stayed home.
And the fourth faction in the equation THE JIHADISTS were READY WILLING AND ABLE to turn Iraq into a Jihadi "shooting gallery" for ANYONE in the Muslim World who wanted to take a shot at killing a REAL AMERICAN on the cheap. No visa or airline ticket required.
EXACTLY HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE BEFORE THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION THROWS IN THE TOWEL IN IRAQ AND GIVES UP ON "PERMANENT BASES" NEAR THE OIL FIELDS....?
THAT'S HOW LONG THIS INSURGENCY WILL LAST...AND NOT A MINUTE LONGER.
Friday, May 6, 2005
NOW HIRING: A SUMMER FLING?
Need a job? ...try a Hotel or a construction site....perferably in Vegas.
The "Bush Jobs Miracle" which we will be hearing about for the rest of this month....is mostly a SUMMER FLING.
Garden Centers finally kicked in after a cold spring with late snows in most parts of the north country.
Hotels and Amusement Parks are preparing for the summer rush....
But it all depends on gas prices....YET if the dollar is up on higher rates, now that Greenspan has been proven to be a genius again?
A stronger dollar could mean cheaper oil at least in the short (summer) term....AND HIGER RATES MEAN...MORE BANK INTEREST FOR MOM AND POP.
ALAS, POOR WALL STREET, HOW WILL THE STREET'S SPIN MACHINE HANDLE THIS! GIVE MOM AND POP AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE STOCK MARKET PURGATORY OF THE LAST FEW YEARS, AND THEY ARE OUTTA HERE...AND I'M WITH THEM!
The "Bush Jobs Miracle" which we will be hearing about for the rest of this month....is mostly a SUMMER FLING.
Garden Centers finally kicked in after a cold spring with late snows in most parts of the north country.
Hotels and Amusement Parks are preparing for the summer rush....
But it all depends on gas prices....YET if the dollar is up on higher rates, now that Greenspan has been proven to be a genius again?
A stronger dollar could mean cheaper oil at least in the short (summer) term....AND HIGER RATES MEAN...MORE BANK INTEREST FOR MOM AND POP.
ALAS, POOR WALL STREET, HOW WILL THE STREET'S SPIN MACHINE HANDLE THIS! GIVE MOM AND POP AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE STOCK MARKET PURGATORY OF THE LAST FEW YEARS, AND THEY ARE OUTTA HERE...AND I'M WITH THEM!
POODLE AVERTS POUND....!
British politics is odd to most Americans. And British politicans all seem frumpy dumpy and effete to many in the US.
BUT, AT LEAST THE BRITS ARE DEBATING HOW TO IMPROVE "NATIONAL HEALTH CARE" NOT WHETHER TO HAVE IT AT ALL!
The British also have a sense of national unity that is absent in the US. Americans are totally divided now. Red and Blue. Christian and Muslim and Jew. South and North.
WALL STREET IS USING THE DIVIDE AND CONQUER STRATEGY WITH THE US...AND IT'S WORKING.
The Jews send their money to Israel. The Cubans to Cuba. The Mexicans to Mexico.
AND THE REST OF US SEND OUR MONEY TO CHINA!
Anyway, Tony the Poodle averts the pound....which is expected after all who would actually want a Creepy Tory Government....?
BUT, AT LEAST THE BRITS ARE DEBATING HOW TO IMPROVE "NATIONAL HEALTH CARE" NOT WHETHER TO HAVE IT AT ALL!
The British also have a sense of national unity that is absent in the US. Americans are totally divided now. Red and Blue. Christian and Muslim and Jew. South and North.
WALL STREET IS USING THE DIVIDE AND CONQUER STRATEGY WITH THE US...AND IT'S WORKING.
The Jews send their money to Israel. The Cubans to Cuba. The Mexicans to Mexico.
AND THE REST OF US SEND OUR MONEY TO CHINA!
Anyway, Tony the Poodle averts the pound....which is expected after all who would actually want a Creepy Tory Government....?
JOBS ANOMALY CONTINUES.....
The jobs anomaly continues...proving to some that happy days are queer again.
In the report many of the usual suspects were in the line up...the Temps of course. And the "health care" sector....any hospital or clinic you see is TEEMING with "workers"...in hospitals the nursing stations seem not to have chairs for everyone milling about.
Food service is up...but it still takes forever to get your Big Mac.
Retail is hiring...apparently those "garden centers" in Minnesota came through again...better late than never.
And there was a big spike in "hospitality" which I take to be summer tourism related, but THAT will surely depend on the price of gas. At $2.30 per gallon fewer people will be venturing far from home...many will opt for a weekend doing "yard work" which is actually promising for the "garden centers" in Minnesota!
IN ANY EVENT, THE "SOFT PATCH" TALK HAS HAD THE KYBOSH PUT ON IT...AND THE G-MAN CAN CONTINUE WITH IS "MEASURED PACE" FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR......THIS WILL NATURALLY DEPRESS BONDS AND MAKE THE HOUSING BUBBLE TIGHTER THAN THE BARK ON A TREE....
SO BY LATE SUMMER CONSTRUCTION JOBS COULD BE LIMITED TO THE PALACES OF VANTITY IN VEGAS....WHICH SEEMS TO BOOM NO MATTER WHAT.
AND PROBABLY THE BEST NEWS FOR MOM AND POP IS THAT.....IF YOU HAVEN'T CASHED OUT OF WALL STREET AND GONE TO BANK CD's.....NEXT WEEK CD RATES WILL BE HIGHER!
AND HIGHER THEN NEXT WEEK...AND THE NEXT AND THE NEXT....! GOOD NEWS FOR YIELD SEEKERS!
SO HAPPY TALK ALL ROUND, BECAUSE HAPPY DAYS ARE QUEER AGAIN!
In the report many of the usual suspects were in the line up...the Temps of course. And the "health care" sector....any hospital or clinic you see is TEEMING with "workers"...in hospitals the nursing stations seem not to have chairs for everyone milling about.
Food service is up...but it still takes forever to get your Big Mac.
Retail is hiring...apparently those "garden centers" in Minnesota came through again...better late than never.
And there was a big spike in "hospitality" which I take to be summer tourism related, but THAT will surely depend on the price of gas. At $2.30 per gallon fewer people will be venturing far from home...many will opt for a weekend doing "yard work" which is actually promising for the "garden centers" in Minnesota!
IN ANY EVENT, THE "SOFT PATCH" TALK HAS HAD THE KYBOSH PUT ON IT...AND THE G-MAN CAN CONTINUE WITH IS "MEASURED PACE" FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR......THIS WILL NATURALLY DEPRESS BONDS AND MAKE THE HOUSING BUBBLE TIGHTER THAN THE BARK ON A TREE....
SO BY LATE SUMMER CONSTRUCTION JOBS COULD BE LIMITED TO THE PALACES OF VANTITY IN VEGAS....WHICH SEEMS TO BOOM NO MATTER WHAT.
AND PROBABLY THE BEST NEWS FOR MOM AND POP IS THAT.....IF YOU HAVEN'T CASHED OUT OF WALL STREET AND GONE TO BANK CD's.....NEXT WEEK CD RATES WILL BE HIGHER!
AND HIGHER THEN NEXT WEEK...AND THE NEXT AND THE NEXT....! GOOD NEWS FOR YIELD SEEKERS!
SO HAPPY TALK ALL ROUND, BECAUSE HAPPY DAYS ARE QUEER AGAIN!
Thursday, May 5, 2005
JOBLESS SPIKE UGERS ILL FOR FUTURE
The Friday jobs number will likely be a disappointment again....unless of course you buy into the "dumbing down" theory of economics...where anything that isn't a disaster is a victory.
Alas, sooner of later, Dubya and the Republicans are going to have to admit to what we all secretly know; JOBS ARE LEAVING IN DROVES AND WHATEVER IS BEING "CREATED" ARE LOW WAGE LOW BENEFIT JOBS, TEMPS OR PARTTIMERS.....
AT SOME POINT THERE WILL BE A "JOBS EPIPHANY" AND THE WISHFULL THINKING WILL BE GONE....OF COURSE THERE WILL BE A CALL ON THE G-MAN TO LOWER RATES.
BUT I DON'T THINK SO...NOT WILL HYPER-LIQUIDITY STILL IN THE HOUSING MARKET AND WITH FREDDIE AND FANNIE HOLDING THE BAG....
Alas, sooner of later, Dubya and the Republicans are going to have to admit to what we all secretly know; JOBS ARE LEAVING IN DROVES AND WHATEVER IS BEING "CREATED" ARE LOW WAGE LOW BENEFIT JOBS, TEMPS OR PARTTIMERS.....
AT SOME POINT THERE WILL BE A "JOBS EPIPHANY" AND THE WISHFULL THINKING WILL BE GONE....OF COURSE THERE WILL BE A CALL ON THE G-MAN TO LOWER RATES.
BUT I DON'T THINK SO...NOT WILL HYPER-LIQUIDITY STILL IN THE HOUSING MARKET AND WITH FREDDIE AND FANNIE HOLDING THE BAG....
MARKETS CONFUSED....OIL UP AGAIN
The markets seem terribly confused...but that is to be expected when investors are using the WIRE SERVICES to make their bets....
Clearly there are some ROCKS TO STAND ON in this confusion and babble...
INTEREST RATES ARE GOING UP...AND BONDS ARE GOING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT.
THE DEBT AND DEFICITS ARE A MONTHLY NEWS STORY THAT SOBERS EVERYONE UP, ALBEIT TEMPORARILY.
CHINA AND INDIA ARE TAKING US JOBS AND THOSE JOBS ARE NOT "COMING BACK." HINT: THE LABOR NUMBER IS OUT ON FRIDAY. FYI.
GREENSPAN'S HYPER-LIQUIDITY EXPERIMENT IS OVER...AND IT WAS A FAILURE. IT DID NOT "RESCUE THE BUBBLE" BUT IT DID TRASH THE DOLLAR...AND THAT IS MAINLY WHY OIL IS HIGH....BUT THE "NEW MIDDLE CLASS" IN CHINA AND INDIA HELPED A LITTLE.
THE MARKET MASTERS WILL FIGHT TO MAINTAIN DOW 10,000....THEY ALWAYS HAVE. BUT BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE ABOVE....THIS MARKET SHOULD BE GOING TO DOW 8000 BEFORE LABOR DAY.
Now, that said....I have no idea which CEO CFO or Wall Street Tout will spike or crash the market with their "comments."
THE AMERICAN LOVE AFFAIR FOR FLUFF NEWS SEEMS TO HAVE INVADED THE INVESTMENT COMMUNITY.....
Clearly there are some ROCKS TO STAND ON in this confusion and babble...
INTEREST RATES ARE GOING UP...AND BONDS ARE GOING DOWN BECAUSE OF IT.
THE DEBT AND DEFICITS ARE A MONTHLY NEWS STORY THAT SOBERS EVERYONE UP, ALBEIT TEMPORARILY.
CHINA AND INDIA ARE TAKING US JOBS AND THOSE JOBS ARE NOT "COMING BACK." HINT: THE LABOR NUMBER IS OUT ON FRIDAY. FYI.
GREENSPAN'S HYPER-LIQUIDITY EXPERIMENT IS OVER...AND IT WAS A FAILURE. IT DID NOT "RESCUE THE BUBBLE" BUT IT DID TRASH THE DOLLAR...AND THAT IS MAINLY WHY OIL IS HIGH....BUT THE "NEW MIDDLE CLASS" IN CHINA AND INDIA HELPED A LITTLE.
THE MARKET MASTERS WILL FIGHT TO MAINTAIN DOW 10,000....THEY ALWAYS HAVE. BUT BECAUSE OF ALL OF THE ABOVE....THIS MARKET SHOULD BE GOING TO DOW 8000 BEFORE LABOR DAY.
Now, that said....I have no idea which CEO CFO or Wall Street Tout will spike or crash the market with their "comments."
THE AMERICAN LOVE AFFAIR FOR FLUFF NEWS SEEMS TO HAVE INVADED THE INVESTMENT COMMUNITY.....
LINCOLN: BISEXUAL ATHEIST.....?
David Brooks babbles in the Times today:
"Those of us stuck here in this wrestling-with-faith world find Lincoln to be our guide and navigator."
If you go behind the superficial Lincoln who was an astute politician....you find a darker side.
Lincoln was probably gay or bi-sexual in his early years.
And he was likely an atheist or agnostic for most of his adult life.
Of course he had the good sense to keep all of this in the background during his public years.....
But one thing Lincoln was definitely not....and that is a MORON! His favorite "philosopher" was not Jesus. Lincoln was a true child of the Enlightenment....but he never tried to put that in his "stump speech."
If Brooks thinks that Lincoln can be a reason to combine Chruch and Hate....think again!
"Those of us stuck here in this wrestling-with-faith world find Lincoln to be our guide and navigator."
If you go behind the superficial Lincoln who was an astute politician....you find a darker side.
Lincoln was probably gay or bi-sexual in his early years.
And he was likely an atheist or agnostic for most of his adult life.
Of course he had the good sense to keep all of this in the background during his public years.....
But one thing Lincoln was definitely not....and that is a MORON! His favorite "philosopher" was not Jesus. Lincoln was a true child of the Enlightenment....but he never tried to put that in his "stump speech."
If Brooks thinks that Lincoln can be a reason to combine Chruch and Hate....think again!
Wednesday, May 4, 2005
HOW EVIL IS WALMART.....
Remember when GM was the biggest employer in the US.....? Now it's Walmart and the rest is history.
PLUNGE AT THE POLLS....DUBYA AND HIS WAR
With the 2006 elections coming....it may be time for more Gay Bashing......
SPRING BOND CRASH, REDUX.
Boy when the G-Man ACCIDENTALLY (?) forgot his Mantra yesterday the markets nearly paniked....
The bond market is reacting "normally" today....stocks as usual are in LaLa Land but for how long no one knows. This GM bid is whisting passed the grave yard....
CASH IS KING IN THE SPRING....! BELIEVE IT.
The bond market is reacting "normally" today....stocks as usual are in LaLa Land but for how long no one knows. This GM bid is whisting passed the grave yard....
CASH IS KING IN THE SPRING....! BELIEVE IT.
HANDS OFF PBS!!
If the Red State Religious really want a CULTURE WAR in the US....they should go after PBS.
The liberal intellectual community has tolerated AM Hate Radio, Rush and the Dittoheads, Fox News Propaganda, and the combination of Church and Hate....but they will not tolerate an attack on PBS and NPR
PBS and NPR are the ONLY places where the average American can get NON-FLUFF CONTENT through the air waves. Cable has become an absurd and embarassing shoutfest on the right and on the left. I personally abhor it.
Many folks (like myself) watch NO NETWORK PROGRAMING....all I know about "TV" is what I read in the papers.....TV in America has become wall to wall mindless drivel that is insulting to many viewers with IQs above 105!
HANDS OFF PUBLIC BROADCASTING!
The liberal intellectual community has tolerated AM Hate Radio, Rush and the Dittoheads, Fox News Propaganda, and the combination of Church and Hate....but they will not tolerate an attack on PBS and NPR
PBS and NPR are the ONLY places where the average American can get NON-FLUFF CONTENT through the air waves. Cable has become an absurd and embarassing shoutfest on the right and on the left. I personally abhor it.
Many folks (like myself) watch NO NETWORK PROGRAMING....all I know about "TV" is what I read in the papers.....TV in America has become wall to wall mindless drivel that is insulting to many viewers with IQs above 105!
HANDS OFF PUBLIC BROADCASTING!
BOOKS, NOT BULLETS.....
Tom Friedman notes in the NYTimes today:
"These (jihadists) are,....the war within Islam between Traditionalists and Rationalists, which dates back to Baghdad in the ninth century;"
Friedman says that we are in a battle for modernism in the middle east.... And this is true.
Of course, we are also in a battle for modernism INSIDE THE US! The battle between the Red Religious and the Blue Seculars is raging everyday in Washington and in the media.
HOW CAN WE WIN BOTH BATTLES....?
Perhaps using BOOKS, NOT BULLETS is the answer....
Clearly, the US can not win in Iraq by just killing people, Sharon tried that in Palestine and it didn't work....the more you kill the more "evil" you are in the eyes of the Muslim world....
IF PERCHANCE, THIS BATTLE BETWEEN MODERNITY AND MEDIEVALISM COULD MOVE FROM THE BATTLE FIELD TO THE LIBRARY AND THE UNIVERSITY....MUCH MORE WOULD BE ACCOMPLISHED AND AT FAR LESS COST.
Change THEIR minds first, hearts will follow.... As I have suggested before, (only half humorously) we should be bombing the middle east with Books and CDs....NOT SMART BOMBS.
"These (jihadists) are,....the war within Islam between Traditionalists and Rationalists, which dates back to Baghdad in the ninth century;"
Friedman says that we are in a battle for modernism in the middle east.... And this is true.
Of course, we are also in a battle for modernism INSIDE THE US! The battle between the Red Religious and the Blue Seculars is raging everyday in Washington and in the media.
HOW CAN WE WIN BOTH BATTLES....?
Perhaps using BOOKS, NOT BULLETS is the answer....
Clearly, the US can not win in Iraq by just killing people, Sharon tried that in Palestine and it didn't work....the more you kill the more "evil" you are in the eyes of the Muslim world....
IF PERCHANCE, THIS BATTLE BETWEEN MODERNITY AND MEDIEVALISM COULD MOVE FROM THE BATTLE FIELD TO THE LIBRARY AND THE UNIVERSITY....MUCH MORE WOULD BE ACCOMPLISHED AND AT FAR LESS COST.
Change THEIR minds first, hearts will follow.... As I have suggested before, (only half humorously) we should be bombing the middle east with Books and CDs....NOT SMART BOMBS.
Tuesday, May 3, 2005
COMMODITIES BITE....
The real reason for Greenspans measured pace.......a weak dollar is not good for commodities users. All of the other yada yada is meaningless.
THE PAPER CHASE: DOLLAR vs. EURO
It's a race between various kinds of paper...not between gold and paper......hopefully the Saudis will buy into this argument too. And all bets are off when the next US trade deficit is announced.
DUMB AND DUMBER....
The pundit opinion on the US economy has been remarkably gloomy lately....and these are people who are usually the touts and shills for Wall Street.
Wassup....could the measured pace finally be sinking in. Will a 5% CD at the local bank destroy Wall Streets MONOPOLY on mom and pops savings account?
Perhaps the prospect of 5% money at the bank is the worst nightmare Wall Street could face. Dividends would have to rise substantially to meet that expectaion....or P/Es would have to COMPRESS NOT EXPAND......
JUST AS LOWER RATES IN 1982 SPARKED THE "GREAT WALL STREET BULL MARKET" OF THE LAST 20+ YEARS.....SO TOO, THE NEED FOR MUCH HIGHER RATES NOW COULD SPELL THE END OF THE MEGA-BULL MARKET OF THE 1990's.
The fact that Stagflation is now talked about by "respectable" pundits is also worrisome. That is not a word that just slips out for these folks...
THE PUNDITS SEE SOMETHING COMING LATER THIS YEAR...... AND IT'S NOT GOOD FOR THE WALL STREET WAY OF LIFE.
Stay tuned......
Wassup....could the measured pace finally be sinking in. Will a 5% CD at the local bank destroy Wall Streets MONOPOLY on mom and pops savings account?
Perhaps the prospect of 5% money at the bank is the worst nightmare Wall Street could face. Dividends would have to rise substantially to meet that expectaion....or P/Es would have to COMPRESS NOT EXPAND......
JUST AS LOWER RATES IN 1982 SPARKED THE "GREAT WALL STREET BULL MARKET" OF THE LAST 20+ YEARS.....SO TOO, THE NEED FOR MUCH HIGHER RATES NOW COULD SPELL THE END OF THE MEGA-BULL MARKET OF THE 1990's.
The fact that Stagflation is now talked about by "respectable" pundits is also worrisome. That is not a word that just slips out for these folks...
THE PUNDITS SEE SOMETHING COMING LATER THIS YEAR...... AND IT'S NOT GOOD FOR THE WALL STREET WAY OF LIFE.
Stay tuned......
LAURA SAYS: MORE EDUCATION IS THE ANSWER.....
Unfortunately, the question is: Should your waitperson or bar tender have a Masters Degree!
Monday, May 2, 2005
WHERES THE JOY ON WALL STREET.....?
Many in the main stream media are GLOOMIER about the markets than I am.....of course I'm always gloomy about the markets, but that's to be expected.
Bank CDs are now in the 3% for 6 months range if you look around a bit.... Yet, the bond seems happy despite the Feds intention to raise rates ......and the housing market bubbles on....
Well, maybe SELL IN MAY is still the right idea after all.
Bank CDs are now in the 3% for 6 months range if you look around a bit.... Yet, the bond seems happy despite the Feds intention to raise rates ......and the housing market bubbles on....
Well, maybe SELL IN MAY is still the right idea after all.
THE GOLD PARADOX
Will it correct....? Is gold being manipulated by central banks to control the currency markets?
Oil snaps back....
Oil snaps back....
AMERICA'S HIDDEN NEST EGG....
America has a hidden nest egg
to pay for Social Security AND National Health Insurance......
It's called the WAR Budget....
Essentially what the rest of the world spends on national health care and social services for their people and on business infrastructure....AMERICANS SPEND ON WAR!
Ultimately, perhaps in a few years, we'll "wake up" and start defending our US economy, and the economic welfare of American Workers, who are being treated like "migrant laborers" under Dubya, Inc.
THEN, the days of the IMPERIAL WAR BUDGET will be over.
The Republican ERA OF OPTIONAL WARS is nearly over!
to pay for Social Security AND National Health Insurance......
It's called the WAR Budget....
Essentially what the rest of the world spends on national health care and social services for their people and on business infrastructure....AMERICANS SPEND ON WAR!
Ultimately, perhaps in a few years, we'll "wake up" and start defending our US economy, and the economic welfare of American Workers, who are being treated like "migrant laborers" under Dubya, Inc.
THEN, the days of the IMPERIAL WAR BUDGET will be over.
The Republican ERA OF OPTIONAL WARS is nearly over!
BUFFET'S BET AGAINST THE DOLLAR CONTINUES.....no matter what
Says Bloomberg:
"Buffett, who spoke yesterday to the thousands of admirers and shareholders who gather each year to hear his investing advice, said Berkshire continued to bet against the U.S. dollar with more than $21 billion of foreign currency contracts. The wager cost the insurance and investment company about $310 million in the first quarter as the dollar strengthened."
"Buffett, who spoke yesterday to the thousands of admirers and shareholders who gather each year to hear his investing advice, said Berkshire continued to bet against the U.S. dollar with more than $21 billion of foreign currency contracts. The wager cost the insurance and investment company about $310 million in the first quarter as the dollar strengthened."
OIL AND GOLD SELL DOWN...UNTIL FED MEETING
The desperate sell down in oil
could be an attempt to save the American tourist/driving season.....or at least let folks get the local Walmart with a few dollars in their pockets.
That this is a good thing.....but it could be based on the FALSE HOPE that the Fed will "go 50 bp" at it's next meeting.
Most of the Euroland and Asia ARE NOT CONSUMING as they should.....this is depressing their economies....and THUS helping the dollar to stabilize, which is really the cause of ALL of the recent problems in commodities.
Of couse the dollar has major structural problems that are mostly ignored until the monthly deficit figures are released...and then the dollar sells off again.
IN SHORT THIS IS A VERY SHORT TERM MARKET.....MORE OR LESS DRIVEN BY THE "NEWS OF THE DAY."
IS OIL UP? OR IS OIL DOWN? STILL THE TRADING RANGES ARE WELL ESTABLISHED....AND WITHOUT REAL CHANGES IN THE UNDERLYING STURCTURAL PROBLEMS NO LASTING EPIPHANIES CAN OCCUR.
could be an attempt to save the American tourist/driving season.....or at least let folks get the local Walmart with a few dollars in their pockets.
That this is a good thing.....but it could be based on the FALSE HOPE that the Fed will "go 50 bp" at it's next meeting.
Most of the Euroland and Asia ARE NOT CONSUMING as they should.....this is depressing their economies....and THUS helping the dollar to stabilize, which is really the cause of ALL of the recent problems in commodities.
Of couse the dollar has major structural problems that are mostly ignored until the monthly deficit figures are released...and then the dollar sells off again.
IN SHORT THIS IS A VERY SHORT TERM MARKET.....MORE OR LESS DRIVEN BY THE "NEWS OF THE DAY."
IS OIL UP? OR IS OIL DOWN? STILL THE TRADING RANGES ARE WELL ESTABLISHED....AND WITHOUT REAL CHANGES IN THE UNDERLYING STURCTURAL PROBLEMS NO LASTING EPIPHANIES CAN OCCUR.
JESUS STUFF and LOOTING STUFF
Notes Paul Krugman in today's NYTimes:
"In short, this would be a gut punch to the middle class, but a fleabite for the truly wealthy."
American politics has been divided into two completely seperate parts.
There is the "Jesus Stuff"....
And there is the "Looting Stuff."
Essentially, if the middle class and the rural ignorant can be kept in a constant state of frenzy about Gays and Atheist Liberals....the LOOTING OF THE ECONOMY by the Republican/Wall Street rich can continue indefinitely....or until there is nothing left to loot.
And very little is left to loot, even now.
The American job base is permanently damaged and will never recover.
The deficits are now so structural that no one, NOT EVEN THE FED, is willing to talk about them...and suggest a solution. Except of course to say that someday they will "self correct," but no one ever says what that would "look like" for the American middle class.
IF DUBYA AND THE REPUBLICAN RICH CAN KEEP THE IGNORANT BUBBA CLASS BEDAZZLED BY JESUS FOR THE REST OF THIS TERM.....THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS WILL BE ALL BUT EXTINCT......
Postscript: But maybe they "deserve it" as we Darwin supporters say! Note well Bubba, Jesus won't fill your gas tank or bring your job back from China/India!
"In short, this would be a gut punch to the middle class, but a fleabite for the truly wealthy."
American politics has been divided into two completely seperate parts.
There is the "Jesus Stuff"....
And there is the "Looting Stuff."
Essentially, if the middle class and the rural ignorant can be kept in a constant state of frenzy about Gays and Atheist Liberals....the LOOTING OF THE ECONOMY by the Republican/Wall Street rich can continue indefinitely....or until there is nothing left to loot.
And very little is left to loot, even now.
The American job base is permanently damaged and will never recover.
The deficits are now so structural that no one, NOT EVEN THE FED, is willing to talk about them...and suggest a solution. Except of course to say that someday they will "self correct," but no one ever says what that would "look like" for the American middle class.
IF DUBYA AND THE REPUBLICAN RICH CAN KEEP THE IGNORANT BUBBA CLASS BEDAZZLED BY JESUS FOR THE REST OF THIS TERM.....THE AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS WILL BE ALL BUT EXTINCT......
Postscript: But maybe they "deserve it" as we Darwin supporters say! Note well Bubba, Jesus won't fill your gas tank or bring your job back from China/India!
REPUBLICANS ATTACK PBS....
The liberal or "rational" message could be harder to get out if PBS is forced to pull it's punches and report the "religious viewpoint."
As the Radical Religionists continue there coup de etat in America there will be fewer and fewer news outlets from which the average American can get the truth. Most American news programing is ALREADY of the "fluff" nature so much so that foreigers are shocked at what Americans are forced to hear and see on the public air waves.
THE TRUTH CAN SET YOU FREE....BUT THE TRUTH WILL BE IN VERY SHORT SUPPLY AS THE CULTURE WAR CONTINUES......AND MOVES TO THE NEXT LEVEL...AS IT MUST.
As the Radical Religionists continue there coup de etat in America there will be fewer and fewer news outlets from which the average American can get the truth. Most American news programing is ALREADY of the "fluff" nature so much so that foreigers are shocked at what Americans are forced to hear and see on the public air waves.
THE TRUTH CAN SET YOU FREE....BUT THE TRUTH WILL BE IN VERY SHORT SUPPLY AS THE CULTURE WAR CONTINUES......AND MOVES TO THE NEXT LEVEL...AS IT MUST.
Sunday, May 1, 2005
MARKETS DILEMMA....THE FED MEETING
The true extend of GREENSPAN'S DILEMMA
may be on full view this week with the coming Fed Meeting.
Clearly, The Fed has to "defend the dollar" if there is any hope for cheaper gas for the summer tourist season in the US.
And with news that a China devaluation is in the cards...the need to protect the dollar only increases. The housing bubble has got a mind of it's own...but many realtors I've talk to lately say there is a certain slowness in the market now as more and more people are priced out of "entry level" housing. In short, housing is only for people who already own real estate the barriers to entry are so high now.
And the war continues to suck up money like it's 1969!
And the market is still way over-valued on an historical basis....few now remember when a P/E of 20 was considered to be wildly speculative....! And who remembers real dividends and yield these days.
The stock market is just a lottery ticket now. And a downward adjustment to reality would be welcome at this point.
may be on full view this week with the coming Fed Meeting.
Clearly, The Fed has to "defend the dollar" if there is any hope for cheaper gas for the summer tourist season in the US.
And with news that a China devaluation is in the cards...the need to protect the dollar only increases. The housing bubble has got a mind of it's own...but many realtors I've talk to lately say there is a certain slowness in the market now as more and more people are priced out of "entry level" housing. In short, housing is only for people who already own real estate the barriers to entry are so high now.
And the war continues to suck up money like it's 1969!
And the market is still way over-valued on an historical basis....few now remember when a P/E of 20 was considered to be wildly speculative....! And who remembers real dividends and yield these days.
The stock market is just a lottery ticket now. And a downward adjustment to reality would be welcome at this point.
JUDGES ARE UNPREDICTABLE
Notes David Brooks in today's NYTimes:
"Of course the groups want a fight. The activists get up every morning hoping to change the judiciary, dreaming of total victory. Of course they're willing to sacrifice everything else for that cause."
What's amazing about the Battle for the Courts is that it may not matter. The so-called "conservatives" may win, but still lose....it happens all the time.
Judges are notoriously unpredictable. And it is very unlikely that a judge with ANY serious credentials in the law...will suddenly devolve into a pure political hack like, say Clarence Thomas did.
Most qualified Federal judges take their jobs very seriously, and since they are appointed for life they are beholden to nobody once confirmed.
It is VERY unlikely that the Bush judges will go against long established precendent....THIS would be the ultimate in "judicial legislation".....
And it is also not likely that the Federal Judiciary will "interpret" the Constitution as many Evangelicals "interpret" the Bible....after all these Judges, while perhaps "religious" .... are not TOTAL IDIOTS.
IN SHORT, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE BUSH JUDGES WILL BE AS STUPID AS THE EVANGELICALS THAT PUT THEM IN OFFICE. That is true almost by definition.......
True, there may be some let up on "public prayer" with due allowance for prayer by Muslims, Jews, Buddhists and Zoroastrians.....not to mention various Cults and "philosophies." But will they allow a Cross in the rotunda of the Capitol? I don't think so.
Will these judges send women back to the alley for abortions. Will they put Gays back in the closet. Will they abolish the minimum wage. Will they bring back the "good old days" of Jim Crow....?
PLEASE....it ain't gonna happen.
NetNet the Democratic fear of Bush's judges may be over-stated and over-hyped. And, very likely the Republican "social issues" agenda will be upstaged by MASSIVE economic and geo-political problems in the very near future.....
"Of course the groups want a fight. The activists get up every morning hoping to change the judiciary, dreaming of total victory. Of course they're willing to sacrifice everything else for that cause."
What's amazing about the Battle for the Courts is that it may not matter. The so-called "conservatives" may win, but still lose....it happens all the time.
Judges are notoriously unpredictable. And it is very unlikely that a judge with ANY serious credentials in the law...will suddenly devolve into a pure political hack like, say Clarence Thomas did.
Most qualified Federal judges take their jobs very seriously, and since they are appointed for life they are beholden to nobody once confirmed.
It is VERY unlikely that the Bush judges will go against long established precendent....THIS would be the ultimate in "judicial legislation".....
And it is also not likely that the Federal Judiciary will "interpret" the Constitution as many Evangelicals "interpret" the Bible....after all these Judges, while perhaps "religious" .... are not TOTAL IDIOTS.
IN SHORT, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE BUSH JUDGES WILL BE AS STUPID AS THE EVANGELICALS THAT PUT THEM IN OFFICE. That is true almost by definition.......
True, there may be some let up on "public prayer" with due allowance for prayer by Muslims, Jews, Buddhists and Zoroastrians.....not to mention various Cults and "philosophies." But will they allow a Cross in the rotunda of the Capitol? I don't think so.
Will these judges send women back to the alley for abortions. Will they put Gays back in the closet. Will they abolish the minimum wage. Will they bring back the "good old days" of Jim Crow....?
PLEASE....it ain't gonna happen.
NetNet the Democratic fear of Bush's judges may be over-stated and over-hyped. And, very likely the Republican "social issues" agenda will be upstaged by MASSIVE economic and geo-political problems in the very near future.....
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