The Big Push by Israel into South Lebanon will present Hezbollah with irresistable "target practice" for their fighters... So I give the "ceasefire" about 12 to 24 hours to hold... In fact it's possible that the fighting will not stop at all!
Israel is trying to take over the south of Lebanon; and it is VERY unlikely that Hezbollah will sit by and let this happen...
Israel is pouring troops into Hezbollah's preferred "Kill Zone" in South Lebanon, and that is not a recipe for lasting peace...! It's more like a "re-boot" button for the next phase of the war!
And it is VERY unlikely that Israel went to the trouble of destroying Lebanon's northern infra-structure...IF IT DID NOT INTENT TO OCCUPY THE SOUTH! THINK ABOUT IT...
Additionally, there is really no agreement with Hezbollah about the stopping of the war...
Indeed, Hezbollah says the war has not stopped...!
So, you have to think that Israel will NOT be leaving Lebanon anytime soon.
The only hope is IF Hezbollah makes it clear, within the next 48 hours, that Israel will pay a VERY high price for dragging out their defacto occupation.... And of course Israel still has bitter memories of their last adventure in South Lebanon...
But, the very first Israeli soldier that is killed on Monday will likely "cause" Israel to start bombing again...
Remember, it only took two Israeli soldiers taken prisoner to "start" this war... It will only take one to start it up again.
Israel wants a war with Iran and Syria...and it is not about to let that opportunity pass it by.
The US elections will bring a huge "peace vote" to Washington...these are the final days of Neocon domination of US policy...and Israel knows it!
