The Big Plan for Iraq is due out soon...
But, what can be done realistically...?
My hunch is that removing US forces to the Norhern Kurdish Regions would be the best of many bad alternatives...
Consider:
In the Kurdish region...
1. Americans could put pressure on the Kurds to stay a part of Iraq...which is essential, but not necessarily a given.
2. US Forces could "gaurd" the northern oil fields...and perhaps win contracts from the Kurds for development of resources...after all they do "owe us one!"
3. The US could "keep an eye on" the Kurdish PKK rebels, who are making many attacks in Turkey and Iran; and pushing for an independant Kurdish state. This would keep Turkey and Iran out of the north of Iraq.
4. American military power would be permanently based in a key region for future possible action.
5. The Kurds could be "protected" from the Sunnis and Shia, who will slug it out for control of central Iraq during the coming "civil war."
6. An additional idea would be to declare Baghdad to be an "open city" with it's own government that is seperate from the other regional "federal districts"... Baghdad would be basically like Washington DC...not really a part of any one "state." But rather, a FEDERAL DISTRICT, that is "owned" by all of the states in Iraq... This notion of an open city might be enough to get Sunni "buy in" to a Federalist government.
7. The oil revenue must be controlled by a central body and distributed through a scheme that's decided by the parties; perhaps on a per capita basis...with some allowance for local autonomy that is not based on population...something like the US Senate where statehood, not population, is the basis for power.
From the treatment Bush is getting in Jordan today...it is also possible that the regional leadership in the middle east will join together...WITHOUT BUSH AND THE NEOCONS...and solve this mess themselves...
The US is the 800 pound gorilla in the room...to be sure...but you don't really have to "negotiate" with a gorilla...!
All you have to do is keep it quiet and contented and not causing trouble...sort of like Bush in Jordan tonight!
