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Sunday, December 31, 2006
KRUGMAN ON HEALTH CARE IN '07...
You know, by telling American companies to relocate to nations that already have national health insurance...like Canada, Europe and parts of Asia.
Or to parts of the world where workers are simply slaves of the government like in China.
The US trade deficit will not come down until American companies get the health insurance monkey off their backs...
Curiously, the trade deficit may bring universal health care faster than common sense or any other motive...especially in the current money and bribe obsessed envirnoment in Washington...
WITHOUT NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE THERE IS GOING TO BE A COLLAPSE OF THE DOLLAR CAUSED BY THE "STRUCTURAL" TRADE DEFICITS THAT ARISE FROM THE UNCOMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT IN THE US...AND THE START OF THAT DOLLAR COLLAPSE COULD BE AS EARLY AS 2007....
AND THAT'S NOT TO MENTION THE HUGE DECLINES THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PRICE OF GOLD AND OIL IN 2006
SADDAM HANGING: A SHIA REVENGE KILLING.
THE OLD IRAQ DIED WITH SADDAM...THAT'S IN THE HISTORY BOOKS.
BUT WHEN WILL THE SAUDI'S INTERVENE TO STOP THE US BACKED IRANIAN/PERSIAN/SHIA ADVANCE?
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE SUNNI'S IN THE MIDDLE EAST WILL START TO BE HEARD NOW THAT SADDAM IS GONE FROM THE SCENE...
THIS "NEW YEAR" IS GOING TO BE VERY, VERY INTERESTING...AND THE SAUDI'S COULD BE THE KEY BECAUSE THE IRANIAN SHIA EMPIRE IS NOW ON THEIR VERY DOORSTEPS...
3000 DIE FOR A BUSH OBSESSION...
The coming Bush "surge" into Sunni neighborhoods to kick in doors and beat people will only keep the death toll rising...
January could be the deadliest month ever...and the trendline is up. The Death toll will likely "surge" after Bush gives his "new plan" ...which will probably be the old plan of "stay the course"...
Bush has already said that the "Next President" will have to handle Iraq...NOT HIM! So the beat goes on...into the unhappy new year.
Saturday, December 30, 2006
BUSH'S WORST MISTAKE...
Bush's Greatest Mistake was taking out Saddam, who was an ally against the Iranians.
It is the Iranians who are the real threat in the middle east...both to Israel and to the moderate Arab Sunni governments, who have supported the US for decades.
Everyone knows that it was Sharon and the Israeli Likudnics (a/k/a Neocons in the US) who egged Bush on to make this Great Mistake...but alas, Sharon is a vegetable and has no say in the matter now...and the Neocons have fled the government in the US to avoid eventual war crimes charges.
Bush now finds himself in the incredibly odd position of fighting for his natural enemies...and against his natural friends in Iraq.
And the consequences will be a disaster of Biblical proportions.
Consider:
SOONER OR LATER, BUSH WILL HAVE TO FIGHT THE IRAQI SHIA AND THE KURDS...OUR SO CALLED "GOOD GUYS" AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS STRANGE AND MISGUIDED WAR.
BUSH'S "GREENZONIAN" ALLIES ARE NOT TRUSTED AND WILL NEVER BE TRUSTED BY THE US OCCUPATION, BECAUSE THEY ARE REALLY NOT ALLIES AT ALL!
THE GREENZONIANS ARE THE SHIA PUPPETS OF A GREATER IRAN...OR THE KURDISH PUPPETS OF THE PKK TERRORIST ORGANIZATION, WHO ARE EVEN NOW ATTACKING OUR NATO ALLY, TURKEY.
IN SHORT, BUSH'S "PUPPET GOVERNMENT" IN THE GREENZONE IS REALLY NOT HIS PUPPET GOVERNMENT AT ALL...THE GREENZONE PUPPETS ARE REALLY DOUBLE AGENTS ACTING AGAINST THE US INTERESTS IN IRAQ AND IN THE REGION.
SOMEHOW THIS ELUDES THE PUNDITS...
AT SOME POINT EVENTS WILL FORCE BUSH TO ATTACK THE IRAQI SHIA "GOOD GUYS" AND "VICTIMS OF SADDAM" AND THEIR IRANIAN SUPPORTERS IN GREATER IRAN;
AND BUSH MUST ALSO ATTACK THE KURDS; AND THEIR PKK TERROR CELLS IN NORTHERN IRAQ.
ATTACKING AND KILLING SADDAM'S IRAQ WAS BUSH'S GREATEST WAR CRIME...BUT, HE HAS COMMITTED MANY MORE SINCE STARTING DOWN HIS SORRY PATH...
AND OMINOUSLY, IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN THAT BUSH'S GREATEST WAR CRIMES ARE YET TO COME...
THE MURDER OF SADDAM BY THE US-BACKED "GREENZONE" SHIA/IRANIAN DOUBLE AGENTS WAS THE CROWNING ACHIEVEMENT OF OSAMA TO DATE!
YES, EVEN ECLIPSING THE ATTACKS OF 911...! BECAUSE, NOW THE DIE IS CAST...
NOW THERE IS ONLY ONE DISMAL PATH AHEAD FOR BUSH & CO...
WE ARE ON THE ROAD TO HELL... THERE IS NO TURNING BACK.
SADDAM'S DEATH ASSURES US-IRAN WAR IN 2007
That chapter is over....
But, the Arab States will now ask, indeed demand, that the Bush Administration play the role Saddam played...as the protector of Arabs and Sunnis against the Persian Hoards of Greater Iranian Shiaism...
Do you think Americans know what is planned next on the Neocon/Bush agenda...?
Friday, December 29, 2006
THE DISMAL HISTORY OF REGICIDE...
Something there is, in the natural order of things, that does not like a regicide...
It's almost Freudian...or Jungian, in nature.
I have no doubt that the murder of Saddam, the cruel father of Modern Iraq...(events for which I can not think of any modern precedent)...will lead to results and happenings as yet unforeseen and unforeseeable...
The Iraqi, American, and indeed the global, Jungian Collective Unconscious is now "in play" in our sad little war...
TROOP SURGE WILL ENRAGE MANY IRAQIS
The execution of Saddam will make dealing with the Sunni population almost impossible for the next few months...
The very best Bush can do is react to the Sunni outrage...because to confront that outrage with more force, more home invasions, more beatings, more killing, is to assure yet greater war crimes against the Iraqi people on the part of the US occupation...
AT THE GATES OF HELL!
THE CROWNED HEADS OF ARABY WILL NOT SLEEP WELL TONIGHT...
BECAUSE THE RISE OF A GREATER IRAN...IS GAURANTEED.
THE SUCCESS OF THE SHIA ISLAMIST MOVEMENTS FROM HEZBOLLAH TO THE SADRISTS TO THE FUNDAMENTALIST JIHADI OF OSAMA... ARE NOW ASSURED AND SEEMINGLY UNSTOPPABLE...
THE IRANIANS MUST BE CELEBRATING THE DEATH OF SADDAM...THEIR OLD ENEMY... DOES OSAMA MOURN FOR SADDAM...CERTAINLY NOT...OSAMA REJOICES AT SADDAM'S DEATH...
ALL THANKS TO THE NEOCONS AND BUSH.
IT'S NOT THAT SADDAM DIDN'T DESERVE TO DIE...IT'S THAT HIS DEATH ACCOMPLISHED ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
THAT IS THE GREAT CRIME OF THE NEOCONS AND BUSH.
DOW UP IN 2007 ON DEVALUED AMERICAN "PESO."
The point is that it's all nominal gains...not real gain... Gold beat the Dow and the Dollar coming and going...
THE DOW CAN GO ANYWHERE IT WANT'S AS LONG AS IT'S (DE-)VALUED IN AMERICAN PLAY MONEY...! IN 2007 THE DOLLAR COULD JOIN THE ITALIAN LIRA AS THE WORLD'S NEWEST JOKE CURRENCY...
SHOW THE HANGING...! LIVE!
WAR IS ALL ABOUT KILLING PEOPLE... WHY GET SQUIMISH NOW... TENS OF THOUSANDS OF WOMEN AND CHILDREN HAVE BEEN BLOWN TO BITS IN IRAQ...BUT NOT ONE WAS SHOWN IN THE AMERICAN MEDIA!!
I WANT TO SEE MY TAX DOLLARS AT WORK!
FORD MOTOR: A CORPORATE ZOMBIE AMONG THE RUINS?
But, can they survive 2007, amid the corrupt ruins of Detroit and it's filthy and deserted suburbs...?
More later....
SADDAM'S BODY? MAKE LAMPSHADES!
Or perhaps very soon a dead dictator...
My humble proposal is that Bush and the Neocons have Saddam's body skinned...and use Saddam's skin to make lampshades for the White House... Ya think?
Because this is really just an extension of the ancient Biblical practice of enslaving and abusing your enemies after the battle... It's very Old Testament...and thus it should create no problem with the Republican Evangelical "base..."
And further, given the generous girth of Mr Saddam, there should be plenty of skin left over to make some bookbindings for the Oval Office...
I would suggest that the White House copies of "Fiasco" and "State of Denial" be rebound in Saddam's skin for future generations to see...
Better yet, the "recycling" of Saddam's skin would reenforce Mr. Bush's new political persona as a conservationist.
Bush having just declared the Polar Bear to be "threatened" by global warming... or something...
Then the new "Saddam Lamps" and "Saddam books" could be displayed in the Oval Office next to a "Polar Bear" rug by the fireplace during photo ops...?
Just a modest proposal...but surely one the Neocons will consider all things considered...secretly or otherwise...
Thursday, December 28, 2006
WILL BAGHDAD ERUPT...?
KRUGMAN ON THE REPUBLICAN BIG LIE
US BONDS CONTINUE RECORD PLUNGE!
Where the bond pundits are getting it wrong...is that it's not the strong economy that's causing bonds to fall..
IT'S THE MACROECONOMIC PROSPECTS OF AN EVER WEAKER DOLLAR...!
YOU CAN HAVE A WEAK CURRENCY AND A WEAK ECONOMY AT THE SAME TIME...IT'S DONE ALL THE TIME IN THIRD WORLD NATIONS...
MACRO-ECONOMICALLY SPEAKING... THE US IS BEHAVING EXACTLY LIKE A THIRD WORLD NATION...EXPORTING IT'S RAW MATERIALS AND SCRAP
...AND IMPORTING HIGH VALUE ADDED FINISHED PRODUCTS FROM CHINA AND ELSEWHERE...
AND HEY, IF IT STINKS LIKE A ROTTEN FISH, AND IT LOOKS LIKE A ROTTEN FISH...MAYBE IT IS A ROTTEN FISH...!
AND FOR "ROTTEN FISH" JUST THINK "US BONDS"...AND YOU'LL HAVE IT JUST ABOUT RIGHT...
ROTTEN APPLE...
I NEVER HAVE TRUSTED APPLE...EVER.
ANYONE WHO INVESTS IN APPLE WILL COME TO GRIEF SOONER OR LATER...
HANG SADDAM NOW...
WHY HIDE THIS JUSTICE FROM THE IRAQI PEOPLE...? WHAT ARE THE GREENZONIANS AFRAID OF...? AFTER ALL, THIS WILL REALLY BE THE FIRST "OFFICIAL" PUBLIC ACTION BY THE NEW GREEN ZONE GOVERNMENT.
REMEMBER, IT ISN'T THE AMERICANS WHO ARE KILLING SADDAM...
IT'S THE "NEW GOVERNMENT" THAT IS KILLING SADDAM...AT LEAST IF AND WHEN THE AMERICANS DECIDE TO HAND HIM OVER FOR EXECUTION.
2007 PREDICTIONS: THE YEAR ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE...
GOLD WILL GO TO $1000+.
AND OIL WILL RISE TO WELL OVER $100...
The Gates of Hell will open in Iraq...with major military catastropes by the dozen...
The US economy will fall into a deep recession, that will rival the 1970's in scope...
Several major "financial institutions" and hedge funds will fail in the wake of the continuing housing crash...and dollar collapse. And foreign central banks will dump US bonds like there is no tomorrow...causing interest rates to rise to double digits overnight. The 10 year bond will yield 11% by the end of July next year...
The dollar will finally collapse...as long predicted by everyone...perhaps going to 160+ on the Euro. But, the FED will be helpless to act for fear of "making things worse." Gas will be nearly $5 per gallon by Summer of 2007.
Afghanistan and Somalia will plunge into chaos with resurgent Islamist rebellions in those countries...and instability will come to several other middle eastern nations that have resisted the Islamist cause thus far...most ominously in Pakistan and with the House of Saud... Before spring, Bush will announce a military Draft to help control the increasing chaos... Israel will mount an air attack on Iran this spring... Bush's approval rating will plunge to the high single digits...and the voices of protest will increase markly in Congress... Russia and China will sit passively and watch the show...even while playing the "spoiler" at every possible opportunity.
By the end of 2007...2006 will look like a "cakewalk," indeed, the last days of some degenerate Golden Age...compared to what comes next...
Our Days of "just muddling through" on hope, hype, and happy talk will be ending soon...
GOLD BUGS REJOICE...
But what about the contrarian argument that no brainers never work out... Well, this time the central banks...and the FED...are trapped in a box of their own making... They wanted the Asset Bubbles to continue...and they did.
NOW IT'S PAY BACK TIME! BUY THE DIPS...AND THERE WILL BE MANY AS THE CENTRAL BANKS FIGHT AGAINST THE INEVITABLE...
FORD FUNERAL: TIME TO REFLECT ON THE 70's FAILED PRESIDENCIES.
Both Ford and Carter were the victims of their times... Namely, the Post War inflation of the Johnson Era which was the primary cause of their back to back FAILED Presidencies.
We are dangerously close to a 1970's like situation now...with the unfunded and unwinnable wars outstanding...high deficits...and gold and oil reacting to a declining dollar. Only now we have a de-industrialized economy with a structural trade deficit that can not be reversed in any meaningfull way...short of causing another Great Depression.
THE FAILED PRESIDENCY OF DUBYA & CO IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FAILED PRESIDENCIES OF FORD AND CARTER... LET'S HOPE THE PUNDITACRACY WILL REFLECT ON THE 1970's THIS WEEK AND HOW WE ARE REVISITING THE MACRO ECONOMICS OF THAT DISMAL TIME...
MARKETS DECLINE ON EXCESS JOY...
Any return to reality based markets will bring down the confidence numbers... And the notion that the FED is going to be lowering rates anytime soon is nonsense...
The FED has to watch the Dollar and it's relationship to oil and gold...and that is NOT going to indicate a lowering of rates in 2007... In fact, as the unfunded wars drag on and the house bubble deflates...the FED could be forced to watch the markets decline...and be unable to respond because of the dollar/oil/gold dilemma...
THIS HAS BEEN A MARKET THAT CAN "MAKE IT'S OWN GRAVY" FOR SOME TIME NOW...AT LEAST SINCE JULY...
I SERIOUSLY DON'T SEE ANY ROOM FOR A "JANUARY EFFECT" OR ANY OF THE OTHER NONSENSE THAT THE MARKET SHILLS USE TO GET THE SUCKERS TO FLOCK AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
WARLORDS TAKE BACK SOMALIA WITHOUT A FIGHT...
Is it over...or is it just starting in the Horn of Africa...? Stay tuned...
GOLD STOCKS JOIN IN NEW STOCK BUBBLE!
WE HAVE A NEW FED SUPPORTED STOCK BUBBLE... HAPPY DAZE ARE HERE AGAIN! Gold picks up slack....meanwhile...
The Dollar and Bond weaken...to reflect our "New Asset Inflation."
Asset Inflation?...That's the "good kind" of inflation...because the rich own assets...
While everyone else depends on "wages"... Wages cause the "bad kind" of inflation.
Is that clear...?
SADDAM TO HANG ON SUNDAY...
Bush & Co. only have two more years to resolve their mess, or they too may be in the dock for War Crimes...in years to come.
Let the Neocons have all the war they can handle for the duration....
IS BUSH COMPETENT TO CONTINUE....?
UAE DUMPS THE DOLLAR...
WARM WEATHER DISTORTS HOUSING SAMPLING ERROR
Gold is also doing well for those who don't want to buy into a one month sampling anomaly...
FORDS IN THE NEWS...
THE GOLD BET FOR 2007....
AND IF THERE IS A MAJOR GLOBAL BLOW OUT...GOLD AT $800 IS IN THE CARDS... BERNANKE SIMPLY CAN'T AFFORD TO RAISE RATES TO PROTECT THE DOLLAR, AND BRING DOWN GOLD, FOR FEAR OF TRASHING THE US ECONOMY AND MAKING THE HOUSE CRASH INTO A ROUT!
Tuesday, December 26, 2006
BONDS RISE ON COOL CONSUMER...
"Treasury bond gains may diminish because of waning demand from central banks in China and oil- producing nations."
Demand may fall...but I doubt that supply will go down in 2007!
OUR HAPPY MARKETS GET EVEN HAPPIER...
GOLD UP, OIL DOWN...
SADDAM BETTER OFF DEAD...!
BUT THE MARTYRDOM OF SADDAM WILL NOT SIT WELL WITH THE OTHER AUTOCRATS IN THE MIDEAST...MANY OF WHOM ARE STILL SUPPORTED BY THE US...
SURELY THE HOUSE OF SAUD WILL NOT CELEBRATE THE DEATH OF ONE OF THEIR OWN...AN IRAQI SUNNI...AT THE HANDS OF THE "PERSIAN HERETICS" AND THE SHIA OF IRAQ...
WILL THE CROWNED HEADS OF ARABY SLEEP BETTER WHEN SADDAM IS HANGED...?
WILL THE CIA-BACKED AUTOCRATS TRUST THE US MORE WHEN SADDAM IS HANGED...?
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE MARTYRDOM OF SADDAM WILL TAKE THE WAR ON ISLAMISTS TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL OF VIOLENCE...
AND THE COMING NEOCON EXPANSION OF THE WAR INTO IRAN...TO TAKE DOWN THE "PERSIAN HERETICS" WILL ADD EVEN MORE CONFUSION TO THE CURRENT CHAOS...
BRITISH GO BAD IN BASRA...
Monday, December 25, 2006
CNN PICKS MINING, METALS AND ENERGY FOR 2007
Still 2007 could be the year of the weak dollar and the hard asset...
But, with the house bubble still deflating...some hard assets are more UNDER-VALUED than others... Gold and Silver have been bashed ever since the big Dow run up started in July...
Perhaps just buying the precious metal ETF would be the best bet...
Gold or Silver...
TEN ECONOMISTS PREDICT THE FUTURE...
1. Recession? They say no... I say it's technical...80% of Americans think we are in a recession now...! That's why they voted Democratic.
2. Rate Cuts? They say yes... I say no way...not with the dollar weak and deservedly so because of the unfunded wars and the twin deficits. The world is getting used to a post-dollar global economy. The dollar is not the only show in town these days.
3. House crash over? They say maybe. I say no...this thing has a long way to go especially on the coasts where people are leaving and wage are falling.
4. Inflation? They say no but perhaps. I say the weak dollar and the rise of China guarantees higher inflation for the indefinite future.
5. Jobs? They say unemployment up... I say the "hidden" unemployment caused by people becoming "self-employed" out of desperation and a spare bedroom..is the only thing saving us from a 10% to 15% unemployment rate. If people can't "find" work...they will try to "make" work...you see it all the time in the small towns in fly over counrty. How else do you explain thousands of people flocking to a new Walmart for a couple of hundred jobs...?
6. Consumer spending? They say no problem. I say the house bubble has only started to bite. The house is no longer an ATM for paying off credit cards with a quick low interest re-fi. And the new bankruptcy laws will force millions into Chapter 13 "debtors prisons" for years to come. All the jobs are in low wage service positions and banks are starting to tighten up on marginal credits now that rates have gone up considerably.
7. Cars? They say down. I agree...higher gas in 2007 will change the buying habits of millions towards smaller Japanese models.
8. Corporate Spending? They say maybe. I say no growth... Corporations don't spend when money is tight and consumers are weak. If you build it they may not come...vacant storefronts abound!
9. Profits? They say down. I agree. The miracle of profits through cost cutting but without sales growth is finally over!
10. Dollar collapse? They say no, but it's inevitible someday. I say WELCOME TO SOMEDAY...! The dollar will likely fall to 140+ on the Euro... and Gold should reach $700 to $725 next year... Why? Whats supporting the dollar? Not rate hikes anymore! Not fiscal discipline! Not the twin deficits! Not our "off-budget wars." The only hope is that China will not wise up to all the worthless dollars they are holding...or the Chinese will be too scared to dump their dollars for fear of crashing the export economy "house of cards" that they rely on... Well maybe...but someday is not never...and in truth, someday happens faster than most people think...
BRITISH ATTACK IRAQI POLICE STATION...!
THIS IS A THREE WAY CIVIL WAR GOING ON IN IRAQ...
THE BUSH/NEOCON NOTION THAT BY "DOUBLING DOWN" AND "SURGING" INTO THE SUNNI AREAS...AND SURPRESSING THE SUNNIS ... "FIRST"...
THEN...WE GO INTO THE SOUTH AND "SURPRESS" THE SHIA MILITIAS NEXT...
SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN FOR AN OCCUPATION ON STEROIDS!! THE ONLY ONES LEFT OUT OF THE LOOP OR THE IRAQI PEOPLE...
AND THEN THERE ARE THE KURDISH TERRORISTS WHO ARE ATTACKING TURKEY... TURKEY WILL ENTER THE WAR IN IRAQ STARTING IN 2007...SURGE OR NO SURGE.
PLEASE START THE DRAFT NOW MR PRESIDENT....WHY WAIT TIL JANUARY!
BUSH BEATS THE WAR DRUMS AGAINST IRAN...
It is highly unlikely that the Iraqis need any "advise" on war making or politics...as Iran and Iraq fought a long war under Saddam...
And the Iraqi Shia don't seem deficient in political skills...or in venting their bile about the bad old days during the US backed Saddam/Sunni administration.
Back then Saddam was the darling of the CIA for the American push against the Iranian Revoluation which started in the 1970's.
Furthermore, it is not likely that the American military can stop the Iranian influence over their co-religionists, the Shia of southern Iraq, as the ties between these two groups go back for centuries.
Worse, this eventuality should have been considered by the so-called "war planners" in Washington...long before this late date!
BUT THE DRIP, DRIP, DRIP OF WAR TALK AND WAR NEWS CONCERNING IRAN IS NOT STOPPABLE...
DUBYA SIMPLY HAS TO "DOUBLE DOWN" TO WIN...
OR, HE FACES A NASTY WAR CRIMES TRAIL...DEMANDED BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY... AFTER HE IS OUT OF OFFICE...
BECAUSE THE WINNERS ALWAYS WRITE THE HISTORY BOOKS...AND THE LOSERS ARE NEVER "RIGHT." THUS IT HAS ALWAYS BEEN...AND BUSH AND CHENEY KNOW IT WELL.
Sunday, December 24, 2006
A NEW WAR STARTS IN SOMALIA...
Jihadi could start pouring on to this new battlefield immediately... Indeed the first Pan-African War could have started today!
SO, AS OF TODAY, THERE IS A FOURTH FRONT IN THE AMERICAN/ISRAELI WAR AGAINST ISLAMISTS...
1. AFGHANISTAN, 2. IRAQ/IRAN, 3. LEBANON/SYRIA, 4. AND NOW SOLMALIA...
AND AS A RESULT SEVERAL COUNTRIES ARE NOW IN DANGER OF BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE: SAUDI ARABIA, JORDAN, AND PAKISTAN IN PARTICULAR...
THIS WILL SEAL UP ANY THOUGHTS THAT BUSH WILL NOT ANNOUNCE A DRAFT AFTER THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...
THESE MULTIPLE WARS CAN NOT BE FOUGHT BY WESTERN PROXIES...MANY OF WHOM ARE SIMPLY MERCENARIES, WAR LORDS, DRUG DEALERS, UNSTABLE QUISLINGS, WAR PROFITEERS, OPPORTUNISTS, OR OUTRIGHT CRIMINAL ELEMENTS IN THE COUNTRIES INVOLVED...
BUSH IS LEARNING HITLER'S MAXIM THAT: ONE UNWINNABLE WAR BEGETS ANOTHER...WHEN IN DOUBT JUST OPEN UP ANOTHER FRONT!
ALAS, PEACE ON EARTH HAS JUST BECOME A LITTLE LESS LIKELY...
SEASON'S GREETINGS TO EVERYONE...

NEXT WEEK...THE YEAR IN REVIEW...AND PREDICTIONS FOR 2007...
Saturday, December 23, 2006
OSAMA'S PEACE OFFER: "CUT AND WALK."
SISTANI REBUFFS "MODERATES"...
THE PROBLEM WITH THE "SURGE OPTION."
Has anyone noticed this...?
Americans in Baghdad have to stay bunched up for their own safety...and they have to be ready to exit quickly if trouble starts...or be willing to call in air support which likely kills many civilians...mostly women and children... And who complains when Americans kill women and children...the Iraqi politicians...!
The only benefit from a "surge option" is that the massive deaths of civilians that it would cause could, perhaps, motivate the Iraqi Green Zone political class to call for an immediate withdrawal of all American troops...!
Again not the "planned for" result...!
LEAVING SMALL UNITS OF AMERICANS "EMBEDED" WITH IRAQI MILITIAS POSING AS REGULAR ARMY OR POLICE...(MOST OF WHOM ARE "IN IT" JUST FOR THE OUTRAGEOUSLY HIGH WAGES THE AMERICANS ARE PAYING)...IS A SUICIDE MISSION!!
AMERICAN DEATHS DURING A SURGE IN BAGHDAD COULD MOUNT TO HUNDREDS PER WEEK... UNLESS OF COURSE, YOU ASSUME THAT IT'S ALL A "FAKE SURGE" AND THE AMERICANS WILL BE DOING "PEEK-A-BO MISSIONS" IN THE NEIGHBORHOODS...AND EXITING ASAP WHILE WATCHING THEIR BACKS...
THE SURGE OPTION IS REALLY JUST A LAST DITCH EFFORT ON THE PART OF DUBYA AND CO TO AVOID THE INEVITABLE DEFEAT...AND THEIR EVENTUAL TRAIL FOR WAR CRIMES AT SOME LATER DATE...
THE ONLY WAY A BUSH "SURGE" WOULD "SUCCEED" IS IF IT FAILED SO MISERABLY THAT THE "GROWNUPS" IN IRAQ FINALLY TAKE CHARGE AND KICK THE US OUT OF THE COUNTRY IMMEDIATELY...
BUT THE MASSIVE DEATHS THAT COULD COME FROM THE SURGE OPTION ARE A HIGH PRICE TO PAY FOR THE ON-GOING IGNORANCE AND INCOMPETENCE IN THE WHITE HOUSE....
THE INVESTMENT OF 2007...? GOLD!!
More later...
OIL COULD BE UP BIG TIME ON MONDAY...
This could send the Dow down and oil and gold up big time on Tuesday... Of course the FED shills will have at it...but with the massive run up of the last six months...few will stand in front of this sell off...
Additionally, the dollar could suffer...if the Iranians dump dollars to protest the "freeze" on their foreign accounts... And with so few friends in the world today...the Dollar and Dubya don't need any more enemies...
There is nothing wrong with hitting Iran...but there should be no surprise if Iran hits back...and let's hope Washington has thought out the potential "aftermath" of these actions this time...
Because just doing what you think is "right" is not good enough anymore...not with the US military broken and bogged down in a quagmire, and the dollar getting weaker by the day...
Dubya could be on the verge of having a major Dollar Crisis like LBJ had...
And not just an LBJ-style Unwinnable War debacle!
WILL IRAN LASH OUT IN IRAQ...?
Iran is in the catbird seat because of the Neocons... And this "mere symbolism" at the UN is dangerous when your troops are in real danger everyday...
If you assume that this is all part of a planned war against Iran by the US and Israel...then everything is on course for the conflict...as I've said here below...
I would expect an immediate and severe reaction from Iran...which will likely be used as an excuse to escalate the war talk even further...right after the new year.
BUSH MAY HAVE TO ANNOUCE HIS DRAFT BEFORE NEW YEAR'S...!
BUT ALMOST CERTAINLY AFTER THE NEW YEAR....
......................................
There is also the possibility that the "sanctions" are just window dressing for the Holidays in the west... Sort of like the Sanctions against "luxury items" going to North Korea... The US media is not very reliable in the short run...but sooner or later the truth does come out... There should be much more on this by the time the Sunday morning talk shows begin...
.......................................
And before Dubya and Israel start doing "victory laps" or staging any more "top gun" moments...lets see what Russia and China are really willing to do about Iran... My hunch is nothing!
Somehow this new happy story smacks of a made for the holidays bit of top gun grand standing....that will probably not last until the end of next week...like almost everything else Bush & Co have touted in the past...
Friday, December 22, 2006
TALK OF DRAFT DENIED...!
TALK AND REALITY...ARE LIKE SMOKE AND FIRE...
IF YOU SEEN ONE...THERE IS USUALLY THE OTHER AROUND SOMEWHERE...
HOW ELSE WILL BUSH & CO GET THE MANPOWER FOR THE COMING WAR WITH IRAN...? IT'S COMING...BET ON IT.
TRILLION DOLLAR WAR IS OFF THE BOOKS!!
WAR WITH IRAN WILL START VERY SOON!!
It's not the Pentagon that's in charge...
It's not the President that's in charge...
It's not the Iraqi "government" that's in charge...
It's not even the Israeli Lukud that's in charge now...!
THE SAUDIS ARE NOW CALLING THE SHOTS IN IRAQ...!
THE HOUSE OF SAUD HAS LET THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION KNOW THAT A SHIA VICTORY IS NOT ACCEPTABLE AND WILL NOT STAND...
EVEN IF THE US HAS TO START A WAR WITH IRAN ON SOME PRETENSE...
AND THAT PRETENSE IS NOW ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF NAVY SHIP MOVEMENTS TO THE MIDDLE EAST...AS A PROVOCATION OF SOME KIND.
GET READY FOR A "GULF OF TONKIN" TYPE OF EVENT IN THE NEAR FUTURE...SOMETHING BIG IS IN THE WORKS HERE...VERY BIG.
A WAR WITH IRAN IS NOW NOT ONLY INEVITABLE...IT'S A CERTAINTY...!
From link:
CBS broadcast on Monday that according to American officials, the planned US naval increased presence aims at discouraging Tehran’s provocative conduct. Tehran is pressing for its nuclear programme and at the same time is supporting Shiite militia in Iraq. Additionally, Mr Gates said that the US command had asked for a second air-carrier to arrive in the Persian Gulf from the Pentagon, as a warning to Syria and Iran and aid to other operations.
... put 2+2 together to read between the lines here...
SECOND IRAN-IRAQ WAR HAS STARTED! US DRAFT WILL START IN JANUARY!!
Only this time it's inside of Iraq!
The US has soundly defeated the Iraqis...and greatly assisted the Iranian Shia in their conquest of Iraq...because the Iranians could never done it without US help!
No wonder the Saudis are so pissed off at Dubya and the Necons!
The House of Saud has a vested interest in keeping the Iranian "Persian Heretics" at bay...! As does Syria, Jordan and most of Southeast Asia...
THAT IS WHY DUBYA IS CONSIDERING THE "SURGE" IN IRAQ NOW...
THE SAUDI'S APPARENTLY HAVE MADE DUBYA AND CHENEY AN "OFFER THEY CAN'T REFUSE...!"
THE US HAS TO CLEAN UP THE SHIA MESS IN THE REGION ASAP...EVEN IF IT MEANS ATTACKING AND INVADING IRAN...
AND THAT'S PRETTY SCARY STUFF...
AND GUESS WHAT DUBYA IS GOING TO ANNOUNCE IN JANUARY...THE START OF A DRAFT!
THERE IS NO WAY DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS CAN SATISFY THE SAUDI DEMANDS WITHOUT A DRAFT!
MARKETS NEED MORE HAPPY TALK...
Anything is possible with happy talk... Forget the moonshot...let's talk happy...and spend those year end bonuses...!
Think of all the wait staff that are kept working as the Wall Steet crowd parties on the town for the next month...using your pension funds' commission money...churn, churn churn...it's good for business!
Thursday, December 21, 2006
WITH A WEAK DOLLAR...ANY LEVEL ON THE DOW IS POSSIBLE!
Of course the trade off is oil at $90.... But the Americans will never figure it out...it's all about nominal values...not real value.
MORE HAPPY TALK FOR STOCKS...
Stocks will rally everyday for the rest of this year... Because this is all about the brokerage community on Wall Street...and not very much about the retail "sucker" investors...who are really on the sidelines of the economy and our politics now...
Wednesday, December 20, 2006
DOW ON A MOONSHOT FOR SIX MONTHS...
No one has said it's "right." And it all goes back to Bernanke stopping the rate hikes and letting the hyper-liquidity continue unabated...which is why gold and oil and indeed general inflation itself is not giving back the price increases of the first six months of this year...
BUSH SEEMS TO BE LOSING IT...
There has to be someone...who doesn't have the potential for future war crimes trails on their minds to the exclusion of all else...
DOW 13,000 BY NEW YEARS EVE!!
1. A SUPINE AND FRIGHTENED FED...
2. A "REALITY FREE" ECONOMIC OUTLOOK...THANKS TO THE 24.7 SPIN MACHINE. AND THE YEAR END NEED TO "CONVINCE THE SUCKERS" THAT STOCKS ARE STILL "THE PLACE TO BE..."
3. HUGE LIQUIDITY FROM THE GREENSPAN BUBBLE DAZE IS BEING REPATRIATED INTO STOCKS NOW THAT THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE HAS BURST...
DOW 13,000 COULD BE ACHIEVED BEFORE THE NEW YEAR!
WALL STREET BONUSES BOOM NYC ECONOMY!
Clearly you make money in stocks by selling them...not buying them...!
Tuesday, December 19, 2006
MORE WISHFUL THINKING ON IRAQ...
NO FREE LUNCH FOR BENANKE ON INFLATION...
Bernanke simply will not get a "pass" on cleaning up the massive money printing mess of the Greenspan Bubble years...
A lot of that liquidity is now in the M&A markets... But soooner or later it will slosh back into commodities...and prices in general will rise.
IT SEEMS THAT HIGH GAS PRICES FROM THIS SUMMER ARE FINALLY STARTING TO "HIT" THE REAL ECONOMY!
THERE IS ALWAYS A DELAYED REACTION TO AN OIL SHOCK... IT'S KIND OF LIKE A TSUNAMI WHERE THE WATER SEEMS TO BE RECEDING...BEFORE THE DELUGE!
My hunch is that Bernanke will be defending the dollar for ALL OF 2007... AND THIS WILL END THE ASSET INFLATION ONCE AND FOR ALL...
INDEED, WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE CONSEQUENCES FROM THIS IN THE HOUSING MARKET...
ECONOMIC CHANGES SIMPLY DON'T HAPPEN "N'SYNC" LIKE IN THE TEXTBOOKS...THERE ARE ALWAYS DELAYS, LATENCYS, AND A CERTAIN "STICKINESS" IN ECONOMIC DATA...
THESE DELAYS AND LATENCYS OFTEN MISLEAD PEOPLE INTO THINKING "THE WORST IS OVER" WHEN IN FACT...THE WORST HASN'T EVEN STARTED YET...!
THE WORST WILL BE VERY APPARENT IN 2007...AND BEYOND.
WE ARE IN THE FINAL CHAPTER OF THE BUBBLE DAZE ON WALL STREET...
DOW SOARS ON 1974 LEVELS OF INFLATION!
This market is going to rise everyday for the rest of the year... Why? Well...
It's not about "facts" or "reality"...these things are optional when you've got a FED that is still printing money like mad for the speculators!
ARE ILLEGALS CAUSING THE RECENT FOOD POISONINGS...?
Eight years of Repubican domination of politics and the economy can do that sort of thing...! If you don't have to provide "port-a-potties" for the laborers...they have to piss somewhere...and it's probably on the lettuce in back of the truck!
BERNANKE WILL RUE THIS BUY-OUT BINGE ON WALL STREET
Bernanke will rue the day he unleashed the Wall Street speculators by stopping the rate hikes...alas, too soon! These people can not be trusted with large amounts of liquid case and credit...as we have seen many times in the past.
RATS DREAM...
Which is likely why many people seem so distracted most of the time...! For example, Evangelicals, Jihadi, Republicans...etc. They have their brains in a twist because of false notions...and abstract realities of their own construction.
You never see this confused state of mind in animals...since they don't have to deal will the alternative realities created by language and abstract thinking.
Monday, December 18, 2006
DOW UP ON RECORD TRADE DEFICIT...
But Hey... what can you say:
IT'S THE SEASON ....for year end performance reviews, big bonuses, and window dressing!
Fa La La La...
Sunday, December 17, 2006
WHAT'S REALLY WRONG WITH THE US ECONOMY...
WHAT'S REALLY WRONG WITH THE US ECONOMY?
WE ARE TREATING THE ECONOMY "AS IF" IT IS BEING RUN ONLY FOR GOLDMAN SACHS...AND NOT FOR GENERAL MOTORS.
WHAT WAS GOOD FOR GM...MAY HAVE BEEN GOOD FOR AMERICA.
BUT WHAT IS GOOD FOR GOLDMAN SACHS IS NOT NECESSARILY GOOD FOR AMERICA... WHY?
BECAUSE WE HAVE BOUGHT INTO THIS FALSE NOTION THAT CAPITAL CAN BE "STATELESS"
OR WORSE, THAT CAPITAL HAS A "DEVINE RIGHT" TO BE STATELESS UNDER THE "GOSPEL OF GLOBALISM" AND THE "LAWS OF FREE TRADE."
AND THAT CAPITAL NEED NOT HAVE LOYALTY OR OBLIGATIONS TO ANYONE...
AND ESPECIALLY NO NEED TO BE LOYAL TO DOMESTIC OR LOCAL ECONOMIES AND GOVERNMENTS... HENCE THIS "SMALL GOVERNMENT" MANTRA.
CAPITAL ONLY NEEDS THE ENDLESS QUEST FOR PROFIT...EVEN IF IT RUINS EVERYTHING IT TOUCHES IN IT'S WAKE... INDEED FOR SOME PEOPLE CAPITAL HAS REPLACED THE STATE AS THE MOST IMPORTANT SOCIAL INSTITUTION!
THE RECENT PROFITS OF THE BROKERAGES SHOULD MAKE THIS CLEAR TO ANYONE WITH EYES TO SEE THE TRUTH...
THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? AND HOW CAN WE REVERSE THIS DANGEROUS TREND TOWARD "STATELESS CAPITAL?"
THAT'S REALLY WHAT THIS GLOBAL "LURCH TO THE LEFT" IS ALL ABOUT...
FOURTH QUARTER BOOSTED BY STOCK BUBBLE
The retail sector is struggling...despite the fake numbers from the government...think, Walmart, Home Depot, and the Auto Companies...not the hype from the government statistics.
Houses will continue down and will take a toll on consumer spending... And many housing speculators are likely going back to stocks causing BUBBLE REDUX on Wall Street.
The dollar is still weak...and China totally dissed the high level US delegation to talk up the Chinese currency... The Euro is holding above 130...which would have seemed unlikely 6 months ago.
Oil is up in real terms and in the LaLa land predictions of the pundits... There is this notion that you can have $80 oil...because it's bullish for oil stocks...and not have a knock on effect lower down in the economy... Basically, another round of $3 gas will finish off the bottom two thirds of US consumers...
Most of the recent Bubble Pricing...has been caused by Wall Street's "Bonus Army" who want to turn in a good performance on 12/31 no matter what... And as usual Tout TV is providing all the hype needed for the retail suckers at the end of the day...
YOUNG AMERICAN MALES IN DISPARE...?
Saturday, December 16, 2006
RATE CUT MANIA...
With stocks at record highs and the dollar at record lows...a rate cut is hardly advisable.
If anything the recent highs on the Dow are really just reflections of the weaker dollar being "priced in" to the asset values of individual companies.... The lower the dollar goes...the more the nominal value of the Dow can be... Eventually we'll all be "Italian Millionaires" like back when Italy had the Lira...in the pre-Euro bad old days.
The hype coming out of Wall Street on a daily basis is almost unbearable now...this is surely not a time to buy stocks for the individual investor...whom the brokerages always expect to buy at record highs...then sell when the inevitable "sucker flush" kicks in...
GOLDMAN SACHS: JESUS'S BROKER...?
Essentially, the global economic elites are looting the American Economy to the bone.
There is little doubt that the domestic economy is in decline...except in those areas controlled by international capital. International capital really sees the US as a fortress "piggy bank" in which to store it's loot...away from the prying hands of the socialists and social democrats who are now rising up in most parts of the world. But how long can this last?
There is a feeling that the international elites can control the American political process through "democractic" means...even while looting what remains of the once strong US economy.
But, democracy is a weak reed for international capital to lean on...
Look at the recent "democracy" experiments in the middle east...? And the November elections in the US were hardly an endorsment for the Republican/Wall Street-backed corporate looting of the last few years...
Furthermore, homophobia and the "Jesus Bit" may be losing their power to pursuade the American electorate to vote against their best interests for too much longer...
Perhaps, an ad campaign touting Goldman Sachs as the place where Jesus would put His investments might work...?
Friday, December 15, 2006
BUSH WILL DOUBLE DOWN IN IRAQ...
OR.... Go directly to a War Crimes Trial immediately after his term is over...
But will the ability to kick in even more doors really win any hearts and minds...?
Worse, will the "new troops" merely be spread thin all over Baghdad...Thus making them better "target practice" for Iraqis most of whom feel that killing Americans is a religious duty...?!
Bush is getting a serious case of the Hitler Syndrome...
Wherein the only way to "win" is to keep on fighting...until there is nothing left to lose!
What is going to happen in Iraq in January is very, very dangerous to World Peace...
BUT PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY:
I wonder how much of this "double down" strategy was dictated to Cheney and Rummy by:
THE HOUSE OF SAUD, WHO HAVE EXPRESSED CLEAR DISPLEASURE FOR ANY "WITHDRAWAL STRATEGY"....IN FAVOR OF THEIR ARCH ENEMIES...THE IRAQI SHIA AND THEIR IRANIAN SUPPORTERS...!!
THIS IRAQ DEBACLE JUST GETS CURIOUSER AND CURIOUSER...!
BIG SURGE IN OIL PRICES...
We'll soon find out...
But the election is over so it's time for $3 gas again...!
Oh, and inflation is always low... just remember that!
Especially "wage inflation."
Americans need to realize that this economy is being run for and by Goldman Sachs, et al.... International capital has no national loyalties...it's just a game of mass accumulation for these people.
None of these economic numbers is for the typical American ...who is fed a steady diet of homophobia and Free Trade drivel by the elite media shills...
MARKETS IN LALA LAND...
Because of todays inflation report on consumer goods...
Yet, the dollar continues weak and oil is going up...!
The biggest problem with Wall Street now is that it's operating in a spin bubble...anything and everything is spun into a rally...bad news is good, good is good, no news is good...
Ya can't beat that... This market is going to rally for the rest of "bonus season" and into next year's "January Effect"....WE HAVE ANOTHER BUBBLE!
AND BERNANKE HAS ONLY HIMSELF TO BLAME... LIQUIDITY LEVELS ARE SIMPLY TOO HIGH...AND THE FED SHOULD NEVER HAVE QUIT RAISING RATES...
WHEN THE CURRENT BUBBLE BURSTS...IT COULD BE THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO FOR THE DOLLAR THAT HAS BEEN PREDICTED FOR DECADES...AND, IT COULD HAPPEN THIS SPRING...WHEN A LOT OF OTHER FACTORS ARE CONVERGING IN THE MARKETS...
US REDUCED TO BEGGING FROM CHINA!
Thursday, December 14, 2006
RABBIS DENY HOLOCAUST...?
The original purpose of making this topic non-discussible was for the total de-Nazification of Germany... But as usual when you tell people they "can't discuss" something...they can hardly wait to do just that! And they start to wonder what you're trying to "hide."
HIGHER OIL INEVITABLE...
But THE REAL REASON IS ALWAYS IGNORED...NAMELY, THE WEAKER DOLLAR...
Oil is priced in dollars so the relationship between the dollar and oil is purely economic... A weaker dollar will cause oil to rise...a stronger dollar will cause oil to fall...OIL AND THE DOLLAR ARE JOINED AT THE HIP...THEY LITERALLY DEFINE EACH OTHER.
So all this talk about a rate cut...or anything else is just blowing smoke past the real problem which is a dollar that is a macroeconomic basket case... A dollar that's totally dependent on the kindness of strangers...mostly at Asian central banks.
BY THIS SPRING THE FED WILL BE FACING A DOLLAR CRISIS OF THE FIRST MAGNITUDE...
BERNANKE WILL BE RAISING RATES TO BRING DOWN OIL AND BOOST THE DOLLAR...AND ALL THIS GOLD BASHING WON'T HELP...
AT SOME POINT THE PROBLEM OF THE WEAK DOLLAR WILL NOT BE "SOLVED" BY GOLD BASHING... THE TRIP TO CHINA BY AMERICAN ECONOMIC LEADERS TODAY IS SIMPLY A SIGN OF DESPERATION ON THE PART OF WASHINGTON...
AS IN IRAQ...THE REAL PROBLEM IS THAT THE US GOVERNMENT AND WALL STREET HAVE NOT BEEN OPERATING UNDER "NORMAL RULES"...THE MYTH OF AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM IS GOING TO BE SORELY TESTED IN THE COMING MONTHS...
INSTITUTIONAL BOND PANIC CAUSES STOCKS TO RALLY...
WILD RALLY: BIG WALL STREET BONUSES ASSURED!
As long as China is content to hold the "play money" dollar nothing can stop it...
Of course any "rallies" will be rather subdued except for the Tout TV hype...
Because any rally will merely MIRROR THE DECLINE IN THE DOLLAR...SO NOTHING "REAL" WILL BE GAINED...net, net.
Still that OPEC meeting could be a problem if the oil producers aren't as willing to hold American Play Money...as the Chinese...!
THE CONSENUS FOR A WEAKER DOLLAR
And possibly desireable... But why then is no one rushing back to gold yet...
Very Curious...when the inevitable is ignored even if it is desireable... In favor of a pure fiction which is only supported by media shills for the markets...
THE JOYS OF HYPER-LIQUIDITY...
Of course some of the liquidity occassionally sloshes into the commodities markets...but that is immediately "cured" by bashing gold hard...
And none of the money has gone to the ordinary wage earners...who we all know "cause inflation" ....at least in prices...
Thank God for our de-unionization and de-industrialization, in favor of the Chinese who know how to handle salve labor!
Inflation in asset prices is naturally OK; since only the "responsible rich" actually own assets in significant quantities...
But the hyper liquidity for the asset markets comes at a cost...the trade deficit is very high...as it must be to avoid the "evils" of wage inflation...
And the cheap labor economies of Asia, like China, are now in the catbird seat...as the current high level delegation of American economic officials beg forgiveness for all that new money in foreign central banks...
The current House of Cards will natually fall...indeed it has started to fall with the weak dollar...but at least for now everyone is content to admire the Emperors New Clothes...
Even if that Emperor is the Bank of China!
WAS SENATOR'S COLLAPSE FOUL PLAY...?
Wednesday, December 13, 2006
SALES UP...BUT Shhhh... IT'S A SECRET!
But is it ALL just another Republican government lie...? Consider this from Marketwatch article in the link:
Chain stores and auto makers had reported weak sales in November than were not reflected in the government's data.
The report was "inexplicable," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, in an email. He noted that government data show a cumulative 3.1% rise in auto sales over the past three months, while the automakers report sales volumes are down 1.2%.
Another economist said the consumer is resilient. "Do not ever EVER count out the U.S. consumer," wrote Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics, in an email.
I've pretty much concluded that anything we get from Washington on economic data is a lie...and that will continue for the rest of the Bush term in office... They really have so little going for them now that they simply must produce "the numbers" needed to maintain the myths they have created about the state of the US economy which in truth is DISMAL!
WILL SAUDIS USE "OIL WEAPON" AGAINST US PULL OUT IN IRAQ?
So Bush now finds himself in a position where he is supporting his natural "enemies" the Pro-Iranian Iraqi Shia...
And fighting his natural "friends" the secular socialist former Baathists who are Sunnis...as are the Saudis...who are now threatening to intervene...IF THE US LEAVES!
IT ALMOST SEEMS THAT NO ADVANCED THINKING WAS USED TO PLAN THIS WAR! THE MOST OBVIOUS PROBLEMS WERE IGNORED...SIMPLY IN A RUSH TO GET TO BAGHDAD...AND WALLOW IN THE SWAMPS AND DESERTS OF ARABY!
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
FEDS RATHER SHORT STATEMENT...
Here it is...in total:
Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a substantial cooling of the housing market. Although recent indicators have been mixed, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace on balance over coming quarters.
Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.
Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
OUCH! THAT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE A RATE CUT IN THE SPRING... IN FACT, IT SOUNDS LIKE THE WEAK DOLLAR IS STILL CAUSING THE FED TO HEDGE IT'S INFLATION BETS...AND A RATE HIKE IN THE SPRING COULD BE NEEDED TO FIRM UP THE DOLLAR...
MORE PREDICTIONS FOR 2007...
To someone in Euroland who "sees" the Dow or Gold in Euros not dollars...all of the gains will look like mirages...
In short...
THE DOW CAN GO UP 10% IN 2007 BUT IF THE DOLLAR IS DOWN 10% ON THE EURO OR ON GOLD...THERE IS NO REAL GAIN...
SADDLY THAT TYPE OF "INFLATION" IS THE ONLY TRICK LEFT FOR WALL STREET AND THEIR SHILLS IN THE FED...
ALL IS VANITY AND ILLUSION...IN THE US TODAY.
BUSH CATATONIC ON IRAQ POLICY...
Some attempt to "declare victory" and move on is the only way out for Bush & Co. now...
The longer Bush holds on to this Iraqi "Tar Baby" ...
The more likely it is that he'll be blamed by the International Community for the catastrophe that is in Iraq...and the one that will be...
But, the catastrophe that will be...could be pushed off on the Iraqis themselves...if the White House goes for an immediate pull out...
That said, the 500,000 that are already dead because of the Bush mistake...will not be resolved...even by a total withdrawal of the occupation.... That's really what this new "delay" is all about...
FED STILL ON INFLATION WATCH...
Rather the FED is concerned about the WEAK DOLLAR...the Dollar is structurally and "macroeconomically" weak because of excessive liquidity from the FED to support the various asset bubbles on which the US economy relies so heavily now...and also because of the trade deficit...
Particularly the trade deficit with China which is virtually OUT OF CONTROL...and no one has any ideas on what to do about it...
Again more "Let's Invade Iraq" style thinking in high, but stupid and greedy, places!
Hence the current high level Washington visitations to China to ask our new Money Masters what can be done...!
And of course they will say NOTHING! The Chinese know very will how to "play" the American Capitalist Greedmongers!
MARKETS WILL STAY HAPPY FOR REST OF YEAR...
Asset Inflation must be maintained at all costs...it is the very core of the US economy...
True the trade deficit with China is out of control...and Consumer debt is skyrocketing...
BUT AMERICANS ARE USED TO THAT KIND OF ANOMALOUS--HAPPY FACE TYPE--PLANNING...
AFTER ALL THAT'S HOW WE GOT THE "LOGIC" FOR INVADING IRAQ...!
DON'T WORRY...STAY HAPPY...
Monday, December 11, 2006
BUSH WILL ANNOUNCE A MAJOR PULL OUT FROM IRAQ...!!
And they don't want to spend it on trial for War Crimes!
In case you haven't noticed a lot of key people are using the word "illegal" when talking about the Iraq debacle... Now it's only a short jump from an illegal war...to war crimes for individuals... Remember wars don't start themselves...someone has to "give the order"...in this case Bush and Cheney are on the hook...
After Ms. Nancy and the peacenik Democrats take over in January; Bush & Co will be living in political Hell!
Indeed, if the Neocons want any peace and quiet...they might have to move to the Green Zone with the Iraqi Puppet Government...
I suspect that Bush will soon see that the "light at the end of the tunnel" is a WAR CRIMES TRAIL... after he's out of office.
And the time to act to avoid that dismal legacy...is NOW!
A MAJOR PULL OUT OF TROOPS IS IN THE OFFING...BEFORE THE DEMOCRATS CAN "TAKE CREDIT" FOR IT IN JANUARY...!
BUSH WILL PULL HALF OF THE US FORCE OUT BY CHRISTMAS!
BUSH WILL DECLARE VICTORY SOON
...SADDAM IS GONE...
THE IRAQIS HAVE AN ELECTED GOVERNMENT...
SO IT'S TIME TO PULL BACK TO DEFENSIBLE LOCATIONS...PERHAPS IN KURDISTAN...OR IN THE DESERT...AND LET THE IRAQIS FIGHT IT OUT LIKE WE DO IN WESTERN DEMOCRACIES...
A MAJOR CHANGE IS COMING!
And remember you heard it here first...
Yes, I know...Bush is stupid and he is Stubborn...
But he's not stupid enough to let Ms Nancy and the Democrats take credit for the coming pull out in Iraq...!
BROKERS BOOM ON MASSIVE LIQUIDITY AND ASSET INFLATION!
YOU KNOW THE "NON-CORE" STUFF THAT'S REALLY THE CORE OF THE AVERAGE CONSUMER BUDGET!
PARTY ON BOYS...THE END IS NEAR...AFTER MS. NANCY STARTS RUNNING THINGS IN JANUARY...
CHARTISTS SEE DOLLAR AS BIG DOWNER!
But if your economy is based TOTALLY on asset inflation...you've got to expect some problems sooner or later because Inflation is Inflation is Inflation as Ms. Stein would say...!
GOOGLING FOR TERRORISTS....
While they are googling they should try checking: "Worst President" and see what comes up...!
MARKET WILL TREAD WATER FOR REST OF YEAR
But this is a market that is largely self-funding... It really makes no difference what the economy or the companies actually "do" since the liquidity is all concentrated in the financial sector now... So the market does whatever the market masters want it do to...within the limits that the financial community sets among themselves...thanks to the FED policy that the market must be saved above all... A pretty good position to be in IF YOU'RE A MARKET MASTER!
BUT ALAS, NOT IF YOU'RE A WORKER...OR AN ENDEBTED CONSUMER.
Sunday, December 10, 2006
OBAMA IS A STALKING HORSE FOR DEMOCRATS...
Think about Romney many years ago... Or Mr. Dean a few years ago...
Both Obama and Hillary are merely stalking horses for the eventual nominee... That nominee will likely be John Edwards...who is wisely laying low and letting the others make waves...
An Edwards-Clinton ticket would be very strong... But an Edwards-Obama would be nearly a sure thing!
Democrats need a well known SOUTHERNER to top their ticket...and Edwards is the best known prospect so far. He's personable, articulate and can think on his feet. Best of all his wife looks like she could actually bake cookies...alas, unlike Mrs. Kerry who looked like someone from Euroland's cafe society...(which doesn't play in Peoria)
Obama simply doesn't have the resume to be President at this time... And Hillary is damaged goods...and would be a favorite of Republicans!
Additionally, the Democrats are also going to need a seriously Progressive Agenda...not just a situation where the K-Street Lobbists change the names on their checks!
WHERE ARE THE IRAQIS...?
The problem is that there are simply no Iraqis left... There are only Shia, Sunnis and Kurds...
Old Iraqi nationalists are extinct...they were the Baathists who were purged by the occupation...most of these nationalists are in exile or in jail...
So, if Bush is waiting for Iraqis to "stand up"....he will be waiting for a long time.
Hence, the refusal to arm and equip the supposed Iraqi Military and Police...because most of these so-called "trainees" are merely taking the Americans money...but have no loyalty to US goals...or to any "new" pro Western, pro Israeli Iraqi nation...
The Americans don't really want to supply state of the art arms and equipment to a bunch of Muslims...who may used those weapons against their Sectarian enemies...or their American Occupiers!
IS THIS REALLY SO HARD TO SEE...?
BUSH: THE AMERICAN NERO...
Everyone is concerned about the collapse of Iraq... Except of course...Dubya...who is rapidly becoming an AMERICAN NERO...who is fiddling while Baghdad Burns...and the death toll mounts on all sides!
LEBANON'S PUPPET GOVERNMENT WILL FALL...
Saturday, December 9, 2006
FED OUT OF PICTURE UNTIL DOLLAR COLLAPSES...
While the dollar now seems stuck permanently over 130 on the Euro.
And there are predictions of the return of "inflationary" $3 gas coming soon...
The real issue for the FED is will higher rates bring the dollar back...or is it too late.
The notion that a weaker dollar will help the trade deficit seems to be questionable since the US simply doesn't make that much that can be exported these days...
Yes, there are American "financial services" but the Bank of China controls all the money these days...! And the foreigners don't really need American help in creating asset bubbles... I'm sure they can handle that on their own...!
In truth SO MUCH is imported to the US consumer that a weaker dollar could INCREASE the trade deficit....as Americans simply have no other place to buy manufactured goods from now EXCEPT CHINA...and other low wage manufactuing centers.
THE FED IS DEALING WITH AN ECONOMY THAT IS ESSENTIALLY HOLLOWED OUT... AND IS TOTALLY DEPENDANT ON THE KINDNESS OF FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS AND LARGE MULTI-NATIONAL CORPORATIONS...
BUT THIS IS THE POLITICS AND ECONOMICS THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FREELY CHOOSE...
THE AMERICANS VOTED FOR "JESUS"...AND NOW THEY'RE POOR....
WHY HAVE ANY SYMPATHY FOR IGNORANCE ON THIS SCALE!
SO WHEN DOES JESUS BRING THE PORK CHOPS...?
BUSH MUST BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR IRAQ MESS
And this notion that there will be a US "presence" in Iraq for "years to come" is just nonsense...
It's highly unlikely that ANY US forces will be in Iraq by the end of 2007...
And worse yet, Iraq will most likely be a defacto colony of Iran soon...with the Sunni population exiled to Syria, Jordan or Saudi Arabian... It's happening already...see link.
Meanwhile the Kurds will declare indepenance from the Chaos that Bush & the Neocons have caused...
Make no mistake this is the END GAME for the US in Iraq...
And it is not likely that any alternative will be available except to negotiate with Iran about ANYTHING Iran wants to talk about...including the presence of Israel on Palestinian Land...
As was predicted here many years ago...Bush has become the worst enemy of Israel imaginable...
Friday, December 8, 2006
A NO WHERE MARKET TILL JANUARY...
Everyone on the Street wants to preserve their bonuses... So the bogus run up of this summer will merely be maintained until the end of the year... Unless of course someone bolts...
After the New Year...the markets could have a major break...as the fundamentals of the economy, the Congress and the Geopolitical situation including the "twin deficits" and the Iraq debacle seem poised to take their toll...
BUSH AS MORON...
So sad really... But we'll just have to tough it out for another two years...
The current White House crowd will DO NOTHING for the duration of their terms...
Frankly I think they are afraid of the potential for War Crimes Trials after their terms end...and so "stay the course" looks the most attractive...
To Wit: ...at least "keep your story straight" in case the cops show up...!
Saddly the biggest advocate for "Stay the Course" is now Osama!!
JOBS NUMBER DETAILS...
THERE WAS A HUGE PLUNGE IN PRODUCTIVE JOBS LIKE THOSE IN CONSTRUTION AND MANUFACTURING!!
BUT THE NUMBERS FOR RETAIL AND HOSPITALITY WERE SO OFF THE WALL... THAT THEY MUST SURELY BE FAKED!
