Now, why are they always wrong...?
1. Recession? They say no... I say it's technical...80% of Americans think we are in a recession now...! That's why they voted Democratic.
2. Rate Cuts? They say yes... I say no way...not with the dollar weak and deservedly so because of the unfunded wars and the twin deficits. The world is getting used to a post-dollar global economy. The dollar is not the only show in town these days.
3. House crash over? They say maybe. I say no...this thing has a long way to go especially on the coasts where people are leaving and wage are falling.
4. Inflation? They say no but perhaps. I say the weak dollar and the rise of China guarantees higher inflation for the indefinite future.
5. Jobs? They say unemployment up... I say the "hidden" unemployment caused by people becoming "self-employed" out of desperation and a spare bedroom..is the only thing saving us from a 10% to 15% unemployment rate. If people can't "find" work...they will try to "make" work...you see it all the time in the small towns in fly over counrty. How else do you explain thousands of people flocking to a new Walmart for a couple of hundred jobs...?
6. Consumer spending? They say no problem. I say the house bubble has only started to bite. The house is no longer an ATM for paying off credit cards with a quick low interest re-fi. And the new bankruptcy laws will force millions into Chapter 13 "debtors prisons" for years to come. All the jobs are in low wage service positions and banks are starting to tighten up on marginal credits now that rates have gone up considerably.
7. Cars? They say down. I agree...higher gas in 2007 will change the buying habits of millions towards smaller Japanese models.
8. Corporate Spending? They say maybe. I say no growth... Corporations don't spend when money is tight and consumers are weak. If you build it they may not come...vacant storefronts abound!
9. Profits? They say down. I agree. The miracle of profits through cost cutting but without sales growth is finally over!
10. Dollar collapse? They say no, but it's inevitible someday. I say WELCOME TO SOMEDAY...! The dollar will likely fall to 140+ on the Euro... and Gold should reach $700 to $725 next year... Why? Whats supporting the dollar? Not rate hikes anymore! Not fiscal discipline! Not the twin deficits! Not our "off-budget wars." The only hope is that China will not wise up to all the worthless dollars they are holding...or the Chinese will be too scared to dump their dollars for fear of crashing the export economy "house of cards" that they rely on... Well maybe...but someday is not never...and in truth, someday happens faster than most people think...
