Tuesday, January 30, 2007

DOOMSDAY SCENARIOS...

Many people can imagine a doomsday scenario...but they always frame the aftermath in "current terms."

Well, if X happens...I'll just stay home and surf the Internet... etc.

The problem is that any doomsday scenario would likely be so psychologically and socially disruptive that all the rules would change overnight...

What most futurists miss is that civil society itself is very very fragile...

The only reason that the police department can "control" things...is because 99.9% of the population is out of the picture at any given time...

If 1 % of the population becomes "disruptive" you have a riot...and the national guard is called out...

If 2% of the population becomes "disruptive"...you have chaos and the national guard and police flee the scene...

If 5% is disruptive you have anarchy...

If 10% is out of control you have revoluation...

There is also the psychological breakdown of the public that leads to doomsday thinking..."saviors" are always predicted...ritual ghost dances are performed...as happened with the Native American population in the 1890's.

DOOMSDAY SCENARIOS SHOULD ALWAYS ASSUME TOTAL BREAKDOWN OF LAW AND ORDER.... AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE PUBLIC PSYCHE AS WE HAVE KNOW IT...

AND NO....IF THE WORST HAPPENS YOU WON'T SIT HOME AND SURF THE INTERNET...

THERE WILL BE NO ACCESS TO THE INTERNET...OR GASOLINE...OR WATER...OR FOOD.

AS PERHAPS WE SEE IN PARTS OF IRAQ TODAY... THIS CHAOS LEADS EVENTUALLY TO FRAGMENTATION AND "WAR LORDISM"...

AS THE MOST VIOLENT PEOPLE ASSUME "AUTHORITY" AMID THE CHAOS...

AND EVENTUALLY REESTABLISH WHAT WE CALL:... "THE STATE."