The murder of Saddam by a Shia "Sadrist" death squad has made a martyr and myth out of Saddam which will have profound effects for the duration of the war...and far beyond.
The poorly planned invasion and occupation or Iraq by the Washington Neocons is so totally out of control; that the rats will be jumping ship with increasing frequency. Most of the key Neocons have already left Washington...
Indeed, Rummy's "shock and awe" notions now seem like the delusions of a depraved mind...
Everything the occupation has done in Iraq has been for naught. Even the Shia are giving Bush the purple finger...
My hunch is that the "surge option" simply will not happen, because it can not work and is based on CONTINUED DELUSIONAL THINKING... on the part of some in the Administration...
It is unclear if the "surge" will attempt to "clean up" the Sunni insurgency...OR "disarm" the Shia militias...! A Tall order, in both cases...that likely will not be "doable" by 20,000 or even 100,000 more troops...!
Any attempt to disarm the militias will be a blood bath. And with the increasing sectarian division of Iraq...any military presence by the US or the so called "Iraqi Government" will be resented....
IN SHORT THIS WAR WAS A TOTAL LOSS A LONG, LONG TIME AGO...
AND, MORE OMINIOUSLY, THE "SURGE" ADVOCATES ARE REALLY VERY DANGEROUSLY DELUSIONAL.
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE "NEW THINKERS" IN THE ADMINISTRATION WILL NOT ADVISE A SURGE OF TROOPS...AND INDEED, MAY REALIZE THAT THE ONLY WAY OUT OF IRAQ....IS TO SIMPLY LEAVE...AND LET THE IRAQI PEOPLE FIGURE THIS OUT WITHOUT FOREIGN INTERFERENCE...AND WITHOUT THE MEDDLING AND FURTHER CONFUSION OF FOREIGN OCCUPATION.
SIMPLY PUT, THE SURGE WILL NOT HAPPEN! BECAUSE IT WILL NOT WORK...AND IT WILL MAKE MATTERS MUCH WORSE INSIDE IRAQ...
A "DEFACTO" SECTARIAN PARTITION OF IRAQ IS THE ONLY REAL OPTION.... AND INDEED IS ALREADY HAPPENING...!
THEN, IN TIME, PERHAPS A FEW YEARS, IRAQIS CAN DECIDE IF THE PARTITION SHOULD BE "DE JURE." AND MADE PERMANENT....
