IRAQ DOESN'T EXIST ANYMORE... IT WAS A CONSTRUCT OF POST WAR COLONIALISTS AFTER WWI.
THE GLOOM AND DOOM SCENARIOS ABOUT A US WITHDRAWAL ARE PROBABLY OVER BLOWN...
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE REGIONAL POWERS WILL DIVIDE UP THE OLD IRAQ RATHER QUICKLY...AND A NEW STABLITY WILL BE ACHIEVED.
THE REAL PROBLEM IS THAT THE US AND ISRAEL ARE SO HATED IN THE REGION THAT THEY WILL NEVER BE ALLOWED TO PLAY A BIG PART IN ANY DE-CONSTRUCTION OF OLD IRAQ...
THERE WILL BE SPHERES OF INFLUENCE IN THE NEW IRAQ... A DEFACTO OR EVEN DEJURE KURDISTAN...WHICH IS ACTUALLY THE EASY PART...
AND A SUNNI SECTOR DOMINATED BY SYRIA, JORDAN AND THE HOUSE OF SAUD...
WITH AN INDEPENTANT SHIA SECTOR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF IRAN...BUT TOTALLY INDEPENDANT OF IRAN...
PERHAPS IT WILL DEVOLVE LIKE THIS:
1. INDEPENDANT KURDISTAN: WITH US MILITARY BASES EMBEDDED TO PROTECT TURKEY.
2. INDEPENDANT SHIASTAN.
3. FINALLY, SOMETHING CALLED "NEW IRAQ"...BEING THE SUNNI REMNANT OF SADDAM'S OLD IRAQ.
THIS TYPE OF SOLUTION IS NOT UNHEARD OF...IT WAS USED IN LEBANON FOR YEARS WITH GOOD SUCCESS...DURING THE SYRIAN "INFLUENCE" IN THAT COUNTRY....AND REMEMBER IT DID STOP THAT "CIVIL WAR!"
