THE FED SHILLS WERE OUT BASHING OIL THIS AFTERNOON TO ..."GREASE THE SKIDS" ....FOR THE COMING RATE CUT...
THE FEAR BEING THAT THE CUT WILL IMPACT THE DOLLAR...AND THE OIL MARKET...QUICKLY.
NO ONE CARES ABOUT THE DOLLAR...BUT ANY OIL INCREASE WOULD BE HEADLINE NEWS.
SO...A LITTLE "GROUND WORK" HAD TO BE LAID FOR THE COMING CUT...
THAT NATURALLY MEANS THAT OIL IS TOO LOW...AND COULD BE A BUY... OCCASIONALLY THE SHILLS CAN GET SOME MOMO ACTION GOING WITH THESE FED SHILLING MOVES... BUT IT'S USUALLY SHORT LIVED...
A GOLD BASH WAS TRIED... BUT WAS NOT AS SUCCESSFUL... HAVE THEY GIVEN UP GOLD BASHING...? PERHAPS IT JUST DOESN'T PAY IN A THIN MARKET TO FIGHT REALITY!
THE MARKET RESPONSE TOMORROW WILL BE INTERESTING...
MY HUNCH IS THAT WE GET A SUBSTANTIAL SELL OFF...PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 200 POINTS "ON THE NEWS"...
THE USUAL PUNDITS WILL SPOUT THE USUAL BULLSHIT...
"THE FED KNOWS SOMETHING WE DON'T."
"BERNANKE WANTS AN INSURANCE POLICY..." WELL, MAYBE BERNANKE SHOULD BE INSURING THE DOLLAR FROM IT'S RECENT PLUNGE...
THERE MIGHT EVEN BE SOME ORGANIZED OPPOSITION TO THIS CUT AS BEING "UNNECESSARY" AND EVEN "RISKY" GIVEN THE DISMAL STATE OF THE DOLLAR AND THE COMMODITIES MARKETS...ESPECIALLY GOLD AND OIL...
I DON'T REALLY SEE A BIG RALLY HERE... I MEAN A RALLY ON WHAT...THE BANKS ARE ON THE ROPES...AND THE FED IS IN NEAR PANIC MODE...DESPITE THE DISMAL DOLLAR AND RECORD HIGH OIL... ALSO THE MARKET IS ALREADY WAY OVER BOUGHT AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS THAT ARE LIKELY UNJUSTIFIED UNDER CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE FED SHILLS WILL FREEZE THE MARKET AFTER THE ANNOUCEMENT OF THE RATE CUT... THIS "DISTRIBUTION" STYLE HANDING OF TOUCHY SITUATIONS IS MORE COMMON...BUT REALLY SHOWS THAT THERE IS FEAR IN THE CENTRAL BANK ABOUT THEIR ACTIONS... A DISTRIBUTION MARKET TOMORROW WOULD BE THE MOST DANGEROUS SIGN OF THINGS TO COME...
GOLD AND OIL REMAIN THE LONG TERM NO BRAINERS... EVEN MORE SO IF THE FED AND IT'S SHILLS HAVE LOST THE ABILITY TO PULL OFF A CONVINCING "COMMODITIES BASH"...LIKE IN THE PAST...
STAY TUNED...THIS IS GOING TO BE VERY INTERESTING...
