MANY PEOPLE ARE BASING THEIR ESTIMATES OF THIS RECESSION ON RECESSIONS IN THE PAST...
BUT THIS ONE COULD BE DIFFERENT... TO ME THIS RECESSION...RESEMBLES THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF THE 1930'S...
IN THE 1930'S...IT WAS NOT PRODUCTION...OR CONSUMPTION...OR MONETARY POLICY THAT "CAUSED" THE COLLAPSE...
WHAT HAPPENED WAS THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM ITSELF COLLAPSED...!
THE COLONIAL POWERS WERE SELF-DESTRUCTING...MAINLY BECAUSE OF WWI, AND IT'S AFTERMATH.
THE POUND WAS NO LONGER THE DOMINANT CURRENCY IT WAS IN THE 19TH CENTURY...THE DOLLAR WAS TAKING OVER.
THE POUND COLLAPSED IN 1931...AND THAT WAS THE REAL CAUSE OF THE DEPRESSION...THE POUND COLLAPSE MAKE THE 30'S DEPRESSION "GREAT!"
SO TO...NOW WE HAVE THE COLLAPSE OF THE POUNDS SUCCESSOR RESERVE CURRENCY ....THE DOLLAR...
FURTHERMORE, WE HAVE GLOBALIZATION AND THE DE-INDUSTRIALIZATION OF THE US ECONOMY... THESE ARE MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE WORLD'S ECONOMIC "TECTONIC PLATES....!"
WORSE YET, THE US FED HAS BEEN PART OF THE PROBLEM WITH IT'S RELIANCE ON ASSET BUBBLES FOR THE PAST 20 YEARS...
SO, MY HUNCH IS THAT WHAT'S COMING IS NOT GOING TO BE A MINOR EARTHQUAKE...
BUT RATHER, A MAJOR ECONOMIC EVENT...NOT UNLIKE WHAT HAPPEN TO THE POUND IN 1931...
A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE BALANCE OF ECONOMIC POWER IS AT HAND...AND THAT ALWAYS CAUSES SEVERE DEPRESSIONS... AND THIS TIME WITHOUT THE INTERVENTION OF A "GREAT WAR" TO RESET THE DIALS BACK TO ZERO...AND DESTROY THE OLD ORDER SO THE NEW CAN EMERGE.
SO THOSE WHO USE PAST MINI-SLOWDOWNS AS A GUIDE TO THE FUTURE....WILL BE MAKING A LOT OF "NONSENSE STATEMENTS" IN THE MEDIA NOW...ABOUT "WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING."
WATCH FOR THEM....
AND MARVEL THAT THESE PEOPLE REALLY DON'T QUITE GET IT YET...!
