Thursday, October 16, 2008

GOLD: MACRO OR MICRO BET

EVERYONE IS RUSHING INTO CASH..AND FOR NOW THAT MEANS DOLLARS...

AT LEAST UNTIL EUROLAND CAN DITCH THE ALBATROSS OF BRETTON WOODS ONCE AND FOR ALL...

AND NATURALLY THE FED IS PRINTING MONEY FASTER THAN CONGRESS CAN ALLOCATE IT FOR BAILOUTS OF THE MEGA-RICH...AND BIG BANKS... MISTAKING A CREDIT COLLAPSE FOR A LIQUIDITY COLLAPSE...

IN SHORT THE US ECONOMY IS A DEAD DUCK...BUT THE DOLLAR IS RISING...

THE CHINESE ARE STUCK...THEY'VE LOST TRILLIONS ON THE DOLLAR...BUT ARE AFRAID TO SELL AND PUT THE US ECONOMY IN A WORSE DEPRESSION THAN IT ALREADY IS...

THIS IS ONE OF THOSE OCCASIONS WHERE STAYING MACRO IS THE BEST LONG TERM BET...

WHILE GOLD HAS NOT DONE "WELL"...IT HAS NOT DONE POORLY EITHER...

ANY ATTEMPT TO VIOLATE THE LAWS OF MACROECONOMICS AND DRIVE DOWN GOLD "PERMANENTLY" IS MET WITH MORE BUYING...

AND GOLD IS REALLY THE MAIN ENEMY OF THE DOLLAR AND THE US ECONOMY AT THIS POINT... SO THERE IS PLENTY OF PLUNGE PROTECTION AND PROGRAM BUYING BY THE FED SHILLS...

AND EVERYONE WANTS TO TALK ABOUT OIL...WHICH IS DEMAND DRIVEN...NOT GOLD WHICH IS A PLAY ON THE DOLLAR...

CAN OIL AND GOLD ACTUALLY DIVERGE LONG TERM...OF COURSE NOT...BUT THE RECESSION STORY IS DRIVING OIL DOWN AND THE MARKET WANTS TO RUN WITH THAT FOR A WHILE LONGER...

OIL AND GOLD AND THE DOLLAR ARE JOINED AT THE HIP... CHEAP OIL MAY ACTUALLY BE A BUY IF THE DOLLAR PRINTING CONINUES APACE...AS I THINK IT WILL...

ALL OF THE TRUE MARKET ORACLES OF THE OLD SCHOOL TOUT GOLD QUIETLY...SO AS NOT TO "UPSET THE MARKETS"....

EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE US ECONOMY IS FINISHED...AND THE DOLLAR DEVALUATION WILL BE THE END RESULT... DOES ANYONE BELIEVE THAT THE CURE FOR EASY MONEY IS MORE EASY MONEY? OF COURSE NOT...

THE CURE FOR TOO MUCH EASY MONEY IS LESS MONEY! AND HIGHER RATES...

THEN LET THE ECONOMY "SOP UP" THE EXCESSES OVER TIME...LIKE WE DID IN THE 70'S...

BUT WE LIVE IN A PERIOD OF INSTANT GRATIFICATION...

THE TOLERANCE FOR A 1970'S STYLE "INDUCED" RECESSION IS JUST NOT POSSIBLE TODAY...

NO ONE WANTS THE BRETTON WOODS PARTY TO END...

NEVERMIND THAT BERNANKE IS DANCING ON THE SOFA WITH A LAMPSHADE ON HIS HEAD...AND EVERYTHING WASHINGTON HAS DONE HAS BEEN A DISASTER THE NEXT DAY...!

NEVER IN HISTORY HAS A FED LEADER BEEN SO IN DENIAL ABOUT WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING... BERNANKE'S MUCH TOUTED "EXPERTISE" IN ECONOMIC DISASTERS... DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HELPING HIM NOW... HE IS REALLY FIGHTING THE LAST WAR... ANY COMPARING OF 1929 1932...WITH 2008 IS TOTALLY MISPLACED...

OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT BOTH WERE ECONOMIC DEBACLES!!

BUT 2008 IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT FROM 1929 IN IT'S UNDERLYING CAUSES...

REMEMBER THE US "WAS CHINA" IN 1929...THE ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE OF THE WORLD...

TODAY THE US IS A SPENT EMPIRE RULED BY A DEGENERATE ELITE ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE...

OK...SOME SPECIAL CASE STOCKS MAY BE BUYS...LONG TERM...BUT LONG TERM GOLD IS ALSO A BUY AND WILL LIKE CONTINUE TO BEAT THE MARKET GOING FORWARD.....

STAYING LOGICAL IN PERIODS OF PANIC IS NEVER A BAD THING...LONG TERM.