Monday, October 27, 2008

YEN AND DOLLAR CARRY TRADE ENDING BADLY!

THE PUNDITS STILL HAVE THE VERY NATURE OF THE CURRENT FINANCIAL CRISIS WRONG...

AT FIRST THEY THOUGHT IT WAS A LIQUIDITY CRISIS...

THEN IT WAS A SOLVENCY CRISIS...

EVENTUALLY THEY WILL CONCLUDE THAT IT IS A CURRENCY CRISIS...

THE TOXIC NATURE OF ULTRA LOW RATES IN JAPAN AND THE US IS FINALLY COMING HOME TO ROOST...

THE YEN IS INHERENTLY STRONG BECAUSE OF THE UNDERLYING ECONOMY IN JAPAN...

THE DOLLAR IS A CURRENCY "ZOMBIE"...A FREAK OF NATURE THAT IS NOW BEING CHASED OUT OF TOWN AS THE DELEVERAGING CONTINUES APACE...

ONLY WHEN THE DOLLAR STARTS TO FALL...AND A MOVE TO GOLD IS ESTABLISHED WILL SOME FUNDAMENTAL "REALITY" RETURN TO THE MARKETS...

AND WE SEEM A LONG WAY OFF THAT NOW...

THE ANOMALOUS EFFECTS OF THE DOLLAR AND YEN CARRY TRADES STILL DOMINATE MARKET THINKING...EVEN THOUGH SOME PEOPLE REALIZE HOW TOXIC AND ULTIMATELY IRRATIONAL THAT IS...!

NOTE HOWEVER...THAT GOLD HAS BEEN REACTING MORE "NORMALLY" RECENTLY....

AND NOTE AS WELL...THAT THE GOLD BASH TRADE FROM THE CENTRAL BANKS DOES NOT "HOLD" FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...

OFTEN IT NEEDS TO BE RE-DONE....IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TO KEEP GOLD GOING DOWN...

AS NOTED HERE... THE RATE OF DECENT FOR GOLD HAS SLOWED EVEN AS THE REST OF THE ASSET CLASSES HAVE CONTINUED DOWN...

THIS IS A GOOD SIGN THAT SOME REASONABLE PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO GET A GRIP ON WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING IN THE GLOBAL MARKETS...

GOLD REMAINS THE ONLY THING TO BUY ON DIPS...

EVERYTHING ELSE IS HEADING FOR CATASTROPHIC COLLAPSE...