OK. I WAS WRONG...
I SAID THE JOB LOSS WOULD BE 410,000...EVERYONE ELSE SAID...250,000...
IT WAS 500,000++...!! HEY I'M AN OPTIMIST!!
I PREDICTED THAT THE DOW WOULD SOAR 300 TO 500 POINTS ON THE DISMAL JOBS NUMBER...
IT WAS ONLY UP 250++... WHATEVER!
CLEARLY, WE ARE IN A VERY STRANGE ENVIRONMENT...
THE ONLY THING I KNOW FOR SURE...IS THAT ALL OF THIS IS VERY VERY VERY TOXIC!
THIS IS A SYSTEMIC DISEASE...IT'S LIKE THE BUBONIC PLAGUE... IT'S LIKE A CASE OF MACRO ECONOMIC RABIES... OIL DOWN $100...AND 25% IN ONE WEEK!! PLEEEASE...! THIS IS SICK!
AND IT'S JUST NOT SURVIVABLE...
OK...WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING OUTSIDE THE KUDLOW-CRAMER BULLSHIT EXPRESS...?
IT'S ALL ABOUT THE HEDGE FUNDS "UNWINDING" 40 TO 1 LEVERAGE...!! AND WORSE THEY WERE USING "GROUP THINK" AND WERE ALL LEVERAGED IN THE SAME BETS!!
OIL UP, DOLLAR DOWN, ENERGY STOCKS UP... REST OF THE MARKET DOWN...
THE MASSIVE UNWINDING OF THE 40 TO 1 LEVERAGE IS WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW... REPEAT...RIGHT NOW...!!
IT AIN'T REAL, IT AIN'T MACRO....IT'S BASICALLY A TRANSITION PERIOD THAT WE WILL LOOK BACK ON WITH AMAZEMENT IN THE FUTURE...
THE OTHER BIG PROBLEM IS VELOCITY OF MONEY...BERNANKE CAN PRINT UNTIL THE PRESSES CATCH FIRE...IT AIN'T GONNA WORK...IF THERE IS NO ONE THERE TO USE THE MONEY...! TO BORROW IT...
IF A TREE FALLS IN THE FOREST AN NO ONE IS THERE TO HEAR IT...DOES IT MAKE A SOUND...? WELL WHO THE HELL KNOWS...!!
THE BANKS CAN BE STUFFED WITH MONEY FOR DECADES...LIKE IN THE MIDDLE AGES...AND GROWTH WILL STILL STAGNATE...!!
MONEY IS LIKE MANURE...YOU CAN'T JUST PILE IT UP! IT ONLY WORKS IF YOU SPREAD IT AROUND...!!
FINALLY THE MACRO CHICKENS ARE COMING HOME FOR THE US...
SINGLE PAYER NATIONAL HEALTH CARE IS A SINE QUO NON FOR AMERICAN BUSINESS...
BUT THE BIG 3 IN DETROIT AREN'T EVEN ASKING FOR THAT!!
FOR THAT REASON ALONE ... THEY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO GO BANKRUPT!! WHAT KIND OF ASSHOLES ARE THEY...?!
ANYWAY... A RANGE BOUND MARKET BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR... PLENTY OF BAD NEWS...AND PLENTY OF ODD RALLIES...FOR ALL THE WRONG REASONS...LIKE TODAY... MAYBE SOME PPT ACTION...MAYBE SOME SHORT COVERING...
THIS IS A DAY TRADING MARKET FOR THE NEXT FEW YEARS...!!
GET USED TO IT...
