Friday, July 27, 2012

BUFFETT LETTERS : MOSTLY BULLSHIT UNTIL 1982

BUFFETT WAS TOTALLY UNKNOWN ON WALL STREET UNTIL THE 1982 DROP IN INTEREST RATES...UNDER THE RAYGUN FED.

DURING IN THE VOLKER YEARS AT THE FED...ONLY A TOTAL NUT CASE WAS TURNING DOWN 18% CDS AT THE BANK .... FOR STOCKS WHICH HAD DONE NOTHING SINCE THE 60'S...

BASICALLY THE DOW HAD FLATTENED OUT IN THE 70S ...

AND DID NOT MOVE AGAIN UNTIL THE EARLY 80'S AT THE START OF THE RAYGUN GREAT BUBBLE AND MARKET MOONSHOT...

THERE WHERE PLENTY OF BOOKS ON WALL STREET IN THE 70'S...BUT NONE OF THEM EVEN MENTION BUFFETT...

IN THE 70'S THERE WERE OTHER "PLAYERS" DOING THE PONTIFICATING... MOST OF THESE PEOPLE ARE NOT REMEMBERED TODAY...

BUFFETT'S CLAIM TO FAME WAS BEING FULLY INVESTED AT THE START OF THE RAYGUN YEARS REVERSAL OF FORTUNE FOR STOCKS...

BUFFETT WAS READY TO BE A TRUE BELIEVER IN 1982...AND THAT WAS HIS GREAT "GENIUS"...

NOT HIS WANDERING IN THE WILDERNESS BACK IN THE 70'S...

NOW...WE ARE WANDERING IN THE WILDERNESS AGAIN...

AND THIS TIME THE DEPRESSION IS DEEP AND STRUCTURAL... THIS IS NOT THE 70'S DEPRESSION WHERE RATES WHERE GOING TO 20%...

THIS IS A DEPRESSION WHERE RATES ARE ZERO...GOING LOWER...WITH LOTS OF QE AND OTHER GIMMICKS TO SUPPORT ASSET PRICES...

MORE OF A 30'S SCENARIO...BUT WITHOUT THE GOLD STANDARD TO RESTRAIN THE KEYNESIAN NOTIONS...