Our "going nowhere fast" markets are establishing a pattern...
A big one day plunge...then, a bunch of smaller "good news" days...
And the news doesn't even have to be "good"...just "spinable" in the morning call.
This has been a choppy range bound market for some time...the only exception being commodities and gold...which became temporary "no brainers."
Now, everything is choppy...
And likely will remain so, for a long period, as the central banks and global elites try to figure out what comes next.
Clearly, the dollar must weaken substantially...or interest rates must rise. That is almost carved in stone. Exactly how all that is achieved is the question.
The hope is that the dollar will decline slowly...
But that will put the American public in a "Chinese Water Torture" economy.
Namely, a slow decline in standard of living that will not make a happy electorate...so calls for changes in the social safety net, or protectionism, could rise.
Higher rates could "save the dollar."
But would shut down Wall Street and the economy for years...1970's style.
...As our paper money is slowly "restored" to it's orginial "credibility."
TO BE TRULY CREDIBLE PAPER MONEY HAS TO BE AT LEAST AS "SCARCE" AS GOLD...BUT NOT QUITE TOTALLY DEPENDANT ON "MINING OUTPUT."
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE GREENSPAN YEARS VIOLATED THE BRETTON WOODS IMPLIED SCARCITY REQUIREMENT FOR THE DOLLAR...
...AND GREENSPANS DID IT WITH A VENGENCE, HOPING THE NEW GLOBALISM'S PRODUCTIVITY WOULD "PICK UP THE SLACK"...
AND IT DID! BUT ONLY FOR A WHILE.
NOW, WE ARE TRYING TO GET OUT OF THAT NEO-GLOBALISM INSPIRED HYPER-LIQUIDITY MESS...AND IT WON'T BE PRETTY.
FRANKLY, THIS JUST FEELS LIKE 1975 ALL OVER AGAIN...WHEN ALL THE MAGIC WAS FINALLY GONE...AFTER THE 1971 DEBACLE.
SO, ANY HOPE OF THE FED "PAUSING" RATE HIKES SEEMS CHILDISH AND UNINFORMED.
WHEN THAT REALIZATION FINALLY DAWNS ON THE PUBLIC...THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF GREAT UNPLEASANTNESS THAT COULD TAKE THE DOW DOWN A COUPLE THOUSAND POINTS...
THE GOOD PART WOULD BE THAT THE GOLD BUGS WOULD BE EXTERMINATED. AND OIL WOULD BE A BIT CHEAPER.
