As the world debates the metaphysics of de jure or de facto
sovreignty in Iraq; there is really only one question that needs to
be answered;
And that question will probably be definatively answered on June 30,
or very shortly thereafter:
WILL IRAQIS BE WILLING TO KILL OTHER IRAQIS?
Exactly what will June 30 "feel like" in Baghdad?
Very likely the new interim government will be tested straight away.
It is also likely that rather than "setting up elections," the new
government will be struggling just to stay alive for the rest of this
year.
And will the protective "Green Zone" go away; that's where the
occupation authority now resides?
If so, all Hell could break lose.
And, will Negroponte be ONLY an ambassador, OR the new VICEROY?
VERY METAPHYISCAL INDEED!
If the only forces available for security are the Americans, very
likely the "new government" will lapse into PUPPET STATUS quickly.
But, there is an even more ominous possiblity.
And it's kind of like the 911 scenario that occurred in the US;
NAMELY, WHO'SE IN CONTROL? WHO MAKES THE QUICK DECISIONS?
Does the military call Negroponte, who then calls the Prime Minister!
What happens if the new "Iraqi Army" REFUSES ORDERS TO KILL OTHER
IRAQIS? After all they have a history of just this. Do the streets
of Baghdad become a open debating society?
AFTER ALL, A GOVERNMENT WHO'SE ARMY WILL NOT OBEY IT'S ORDERS, IS NOT
REALLY A GOVERNMENT, IS IT?
If this occurs, and I fear it will, then the new government will
become a legal fiction, hidden behind high walls in the
American "Green Zone;"
Arguing about what some future Iraq should look like. The new
government will likely lapse into it's role as a UN "election
commission" within days or weeks.
THEN, NEGROPONTE AND THE GENERALS WILL BE THE REAL POWERS IN IRAQ.
With no real end in sight, until after the elections in the US, if
then.
