After the freak occurances of the last few weeks, I'm convinced that the notion of "average" is a myth. It seems that everything is basically extreme and the average is a mathematical fiction.
With the Tsumani we were all witnesses to a 500 year event, or perhaps even a 1000 year event. A TRULY GEOLOGICAL EXPERIENCE.
Perhaps things change in VIOLENT AND DRASTIC WAYS;
AND NOT BY THE "SUM TOTAL OF SMALL MOVES" OVER A LONG TIME?
PERHAPS THE "PUNCTURED EQUILIBRIUM" NOTION OF HOW THINGS EVOLVE IS THE RIGHT ONE AFTER ALL.......
Or, maybe gradualism precedes a punctured equilibrium...unnoticed?
NO MATTER, EVERY SO OFTEN "ALL HELL BREAKS LOOSE."
Consider the effect of the recent Tsunami Event on the "gene pool" around the Indian Ocean. ONLY THOSE YOUNG MALES WHO COULD RUN FAST AND CLIMB HIGH SURVIVED!
COULD THIS HAVE LONGER TERM IMPLICATIONS FOR THE RE-POPULATION OF THE TSUNAMU REGION OVER TIME? AND SURELY IN ANCIENT TIMES THE NEXT GENERATION WOULD HAVE SOME TRAITS OF THE SURVIVORS.
And remember we of European Decent are all related to people who somehow survived the BLACK DEATH of the 1300's!
The point is that things change, gradually or all at once, and you never can tell which it will be.
This might be the best arugment yet in favor or evolution;
And it might explain why markets sometimes crash, and sometimes don't.
WE HAVE SUCH LIMITED EXPERIENCE!! ALL OF US! THE BIG PICTURE IS JUST TOO BIG FOR OUR SMALL RESOLUTION COMPUTER SCREENS......
AND ADD TO THAT THE "MYTH OF THE AVERAGE" AND IT'S NO WONDER THAT THE HUMAN RACE GENERALLY. AND IT'S POLITICAL CLASS AND PUNDITS IN
PARTICULAR ARE SO OFTEN WRONG.
