The importance of the elections in Iraq for Bush & Co. can not be overstated, but, fear not, I'll spend the next few days trying to do just that nevertheless:
To the extent that the Iraqi Election is NOT an exercise in ETHNIC and RELIGIOUS REVENGE, it may become a referendum on Mr. Allawi's supposed Interim Government.
Allawi is, of course, the Destroyer of Falluja to many Iraqis.
True, the actual destruction was done by Americans, but Allawi "ordered them to do it." Because you see, the Americans are really "Allawi's Puppets" in Iraq now. LOL...... They do what Allawi tells them to do...... Anyway;
If Allawi uses his considerable financial backing from the Americans and other "exile groups" to get a place at the table this Sunday, the insurgency might continue unabated.
After Sunday, however, it is VERY probable that Allawi will NOT be the only politician in town anymore.
Allawi, blessed by the Americans through the UN, will have some SUDDEN COMPETITION. And some explaining to do. And from people who can actually go outside the Green Zone!
And, that competition will likely call Allawi to account for his INTERIM GOVERNMENT'S POLICIES:
Not only in Falluja, but also regarding the rise of the insurgency, the lack of security and public utilities even now, and the continued insult to Iraqi pride by the American occupation forces.
In truth, Iraq is a strange and wild place. A place that is VERY hard to govern, as the American Military are finding out. Middle Eastern Muslims are not like Middle Western Americans......to say the least.
Ultimately, we may find that Saddam was doing the best he could in a bad situation! But, before you FLAME that statement, let's wait till AFTER this election......no one knows what will happen on Sunday, perhaps nothing, muddling through is humanity's strong suit most of the time.
Probably the best case scenario for Iraq after Sunday would be for the "new government" to ask Dubya and his Liberators to leave....ASAP. That act alone would "turn the burners down" in parts of the Middle East that hate Dubya or want only Jihad with America.
IN SHORT, FOR IRAQ TO WIN ON SUNDAY, AMERICA AND BUSH MUST BE SEEN TO LOSE. (That's the odd way many in the middle east think).
BUT, AN ALLAWI "WIN" ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY ENFLAME THE INSURGENCY EVEN MORE.....
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR AMERICANS TO START PACKING......LET THE SHIA AND SUNNI MULLAHS MEET AND ORGANIZE THEIR LOCAL SECURITY FORCES, "WITH UNIFORMS" THIS TIME......THEN, LET THE IRAQIS FIGURE IT OUT.....WITHOUT AMERICAN CONVOYS RACING AROUND SHOOTING PEOPLE WHO "LOOK FUNNY."
REMEMBER, ALL POLITICS IS LOCAL....EVEN IN IRAQ.
BUT IF DUBYA SUDDENLY GETS THAT ODD GLEAM IN HIS EYE FOR HIS "PRECIOUS"---THE OIL FIELDS OF IRAQ---?
OUR STORY IN IRAQ COULD BECOME VERY "TOLKIENSQUE" INDEED.....
Stay tuned.....
