Thursday, March 17, 2005

THE DOLLAR PARADOX....KICKS IN.

This Link provides a good example of the paradoxical thinking that is common in the currency markets.

Today, something is up as far as how the conventional wisdom is being processed....it could be Fed "plunge protection" kicking in...or, it could be a group of central banks acting in concert.

Oil is up big. But now suddenly we see a plunge in gold and in foreign currencies.....this is a paradox because the same problems that caused the dollar drop are still in play....only now everyone is choosing to look at the Fed's rate hikes as "kicking in."

Ergo: Sell gold. Buy US bonds and the dollar. This type of thing happens all the time.....and it prevents a "textbook" adjustment of the markets to permanently different levels...at least for a while. Or, as someone once said:

THE MARKETS CAN REMAIN IRRATIONAL LONGER THAN YOU CAN REMAIN SOLVENT!

CLEARLY, SOMETHING IS "BEING DONE" ABOUT OIL PRICES AT A VERY VERY HIGH LEVEL....WAY ABOVE THE "MERE MARKETS." Perhaps the "logic" will hold....perhaps not.

A CRASH IS REALLY WHEN THE "BIG SHOTS" LOSE CONTROL OF THE "FLOAT" OR OF THE MARKETS GENERALLY. STILL, THE MARKETS ARE "THIN ENOUGH" THAT IF THE CENTRAL BANKS WANT TO ACT THEY CAN....AT LEAST, ABSENT A HEADLONG PANIC......

Today's "ephiphany" is interesting and yet another example of THE DOLLAR PARADOX.......