One of the first tasks of the new Kerry Administration should be to
re-think 911. What did it really mean?
When Ashcroft announced that Osama was 90% prepared to hit the
US "hard" this summer, STOCKS SOARED! AND BONDS TOO!
FORTUNATELY, NO ONE RAISED THE TERROR ALERT TO ORANGE! OR, THE DOW
MIGHT BE ABOVE 11,000 NOW. WHAT GIVES?
IS OSAMA NO LONGER VIEWED AS A THREAT ON WALL STREET?
Or, is it possible that we have mis-read Osama and Co.? Consider:
There is a real possiblity that Osama is more middle east oriented,
and more concerned about the state of the Muslim World, than he is
about the West, or the US in particular.
PERHAPS OSAMA IS A MUSLIM-CENTRIC PERSON, WITHOUT GLOBAL AMBITIONS.
Dubya and Co have interpreted 911 to mean that: "They're comin to get
us!" Why? "Because we're good and they're evil!"
Now, that viewpoint might need more elaboration and nuance.
I SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT OSAMA REALLY WANTS TO CONVERT AMERICA TO ISLAM.
And, I doubt that Osama wants to "make trouble" for the Muslim
Diaspora, who live in western countries for whatever reason.
BUT, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT OSAMA WANTS THE WEST SIMPLY TO LEAVE
THE ISLAMIST NATIONS ALONE; AND TO NOT INTERFER IN THE INTERNAL
AFFAIRS OF ISLMAIC COUNTRIES.
Please note, that this interpretation is different than the current
view in Washington;
And perhaps less threatening to the West.
It is highly possible that Osama hates the House of Saud and the
other middle east autocracies, more than he hates America.
In fact, I think that the REAL game for Osama is control of Saudi
Arabia and the Islamic "holy sites."
It's possible that Osama is really more MUSLIM RELIGIOUS FANATIC,
THAN HE IS A GLOBAL POLITICIAN.
IF THIS IS SO, THEN THE STRUGGLE FOR OSAMA IS REALLY WITHIN ISLAM
ITSELF, AND NOT WITH THE US OR EVEN ISRAEL!
This makes a big difference strategically.
Indeed, the Israeli-Palestinian trouble was said to be tangential to
Osama's thinking up till recent events in Iraq.
This goes back to the need to solve the Israel-Palestine problem is
the sine quo non for the whole sorry mess in the middle east.
THE POINT?
I'M GETTING THE IMPRESSION THAT WE HAVE MIS-READ THE MIDDLE EAST AND
OSAMA IN SOME VERY FUNDAMENTAL WAYS.
AND WITH THE "BUSH DOCTRINE" OF PREEMTIVE WAR NOW DISCREDITED;
IT MAY BE TIME FOR THE KERRY ADMINISTRATION TO TRY SOME NEW PREEMTIVE
DIPLOMACY AFTER JANUARY 2005.
Because something just isn't adding up here; when Ashcroft expounds a
vision of near certain GLOOM AND DOOM; And Wall Street soars on the
news!
Friday, May 28, 2004
Thursday, May 27, 2004
OSAMA WANT'S DUBYA RE-ELECTED!
Attorney General Ashcroft hinted that Osama might want to influence the US election, "like they did in Spain."
The implication was that Osama wants you to vote for Kerry!
BUT NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH!
DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS HAVE GIVE OSAMA EVERYTHING HE COULD HAVE EVER
DREAMED OF! AND MORE, MUCH MUCH MORE!
OSAMA UNDER DUBYA HAS GOTTEN:
INTERNATIONAL CELEBRITY! TURMOIL AGAINST THE CORRUPT REGIMES IN THE
MIDDLE EAST! THE RADICALIZATION OF SADDAM'S ONCE "SECULAR" IRAQ. AN
OPPORTUNITY TO JUSTIFY HIS JIHAD AGAINST THE WEST! AND, DUBYA'S
BLANK CHECK GIVEN TO THE ISRAELI LIKUD TO COMMIT GENOCIDE AGAINST THE
REMAINING PALESTINIANS! AND MORE!
IN SHORT, DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS ARE THE BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPEN
TO OSAMA & CO.!
Dubya, Rummy, Wolfie and Bremer and the Generals have become
global "poster-boys" for radical Islamist recruiting. And those
prison photos!
MY HUNCH IS THAT IF OSAMA THOUGHT THAT TERRORISM IN THE US THIS
SUMMER WOULD DEFEAT DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS?
HE WOULD NOT DO IT!!
Kerry, on the other hand, is Osama's WORST NIGHTMARE!
KERRY IS AN INTERNATIONALIST, A CONSENSUS BUILDER.
KERRY WILL LIKELY LEAN ON SHARON AND THE RADICAL LIKUD TO SETTLE UP
ON THE WEST BANK AND GAZA, (Although it would be dangerous for Kerry
to "tie his hands" on this now. Given the tendency of the religious
right toward hysteria.)
THE ELECTION OF KERRY WILL KNOCK OSAMA'S JIHADIS INTO A CORNER, AND
MAGINALIZE THEM, AS THE WORLD AWAITS THE "NEW ADMINISTRATION," WHICH
WILL BE SEEN AS MORE RATIONAL AND MULTI-LATERALIST.
AND, MORE INCLINED TO SETTLE THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN ISSUE AS
AN "HONEST BROKER." AND NOT CONTINUE AS THE STOOGE OF SHARON, WHICH
IS REALLY HOW THIS WHOLE MESS GOT STARTED.
IN MY VIEW, OSAMA WILL DO ANYTHING TO GET DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS A
SECOND TERM! AND, GUESS WHAT, I THINK THAT EVERYONE KNOWS IT.
So, if the administration wants to PLAY POLITICS WITH NATIONAL
SECURITY? KERRY'S RESPONSE SHOULD BE: "BRING IT ON!"
The implication was that Osama wants you to vote for Kerry!
BUT NOTHING COULD BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH!
DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS HAVE GIVE OSAMA EVERYTHING HE COULD HAVE EVER
DREAMED OF! AND MORE, MUCH MUCH MORE!
OSAMA UNDER DUBYA HAS GOTTEN:
INTERNATIONAL CELEBRITY! TURMOIL AGAINST THE CORRUPT REGIMES IN THE
MIDDLE EAST! THE RADICALIZATION OF SADDAM'S ONCE "SECULAR" IRAQ. AN
OPPORTUNITY TO JUSTIFY HIS JIHAD AGAINST THE WEST! AND, DUBYA'S
BLANK CHECK GIVEN TO THE ISRAELI LIKUD TO COMMIT GENOCIDE AGAINST THE
REMAINING PALESTINIANS! AND MORE!
IN SHORT, DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS ARE THE BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPEN
TO OSAMA & CO.!
Dubya, Rummy, Wolfie and Bremer and the Generals have become
global "poster-boys" for radical Islamist recruiting. And those
prison photos!
MY HUNCH IS THAT IF OSAMA THOUGHT THAT TERRORISM IN THE US THIS
SUMMER WOULD DEFEAT DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS?
HE WOULD NOT DO IT!!
Kerry, on the other hand, is Osama's WORST NIGHTMARE!
KERRY IS AN INTERNATIONALIST, A CONSENSUS BUILDER.
KERRY WILL LIKELY LEAN ON SHARON AND THE RADICAL LIKUD TO SETTLE UP
ON THE WEST BANK AND GAZA, (Although it would be dangerous for Kerry
to "tie his hands" on this now. Given the tendency of the religious
right toward hysteria.)
THE ELECTION OF KERRY WILL KNOCK OSAMA'S JIHADIS INTO A CORNER, AND
MAGINALIZE THEM, AS THE WORLD AWAITS THE "NEW ADMINISTRATION," WHICH
WILL BE SEEN AS MORE RATIONAL AND MULTI-LATERALIST.
AND, MORE INCLINED TO SETTLE THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN ISSUE AS
AN "HONEST BROKER." AND NOT CONTINUE AS THE STOOGE OF SHARON, WHICH
IS REALLY HOW THIS WHOLE MESS GOT STARTED.
IN MY VIEW, OSAMA WILL DO ANYTHING TO GET DUBYA AND THE NEOCONS A
SECOND TERM! AND, GUESS WHAT, I THINK THAT EVERYONE KNOWS IT.
So, if the administration wants to PLAY POLITICS WITH NATIONAL
SECURITY? KERRY'S RESPONSE SHOULD BE: "BRING IT ON!"
Wednesday, May 26, 2004
TO SELL IN MAY. SELL TODAY.
The CEO corruption news just keeps comin.
This deal with Grasso could be the last straw for many people.
WHY TRUST THE MARKETS?
I DON'T HAVE A CLUE................. ITS ALL JUST A SHAM FOR THE
SUCKERS REALLY.
THOSE WHO FOLLOW WALL STREET ARE REALLY NO BETTER OFF THAN PEOPLE WHO
PLAY THE HORSES, OR VISIT THE CASINOS.
Frankly, I think your chances are better at the crap table than in
stocks or bonds!
The wheels seem to be coming off the "recovery," and every gas
station is a source of GLOOM AND DOOM now.
AND NOW THIS NEW TERROR THREAT FOR THE SUMMER.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY....OR AT LEAST AS FAR AWAY AS YOU CAN AFFORD
THE GAS TO GO.
IT'S A GOOD DAY TO SELL.
I'M 90% IN CASH FROM NOW UNTIL THE ELECTION; HOLDING ONLY GOLD, GAS
AND OIL FOR THE DURATION.
Am I afraid of "missing the boat?" NOT A BIT OF IT!
What boat? The market is more like a bus!
Trust me, there's a new chance to get on-board every 10 minutes!
We'll know a lot more starting in 2005 and with the new
administration in Washington. Plenty of time.
Right now risk avoidance and capital preservation is the name of the
game.
This deal with Grasso could be the last straw for many people.
WHY TRUST THE MARKETS?
I DON'T HAVE A CLUE................. ITS ALL JUST A SHAM FOR THE
SUCKERS REALLY.
THOSE WHO FOLLOW WALL STREET ARE REALLY NO BETTER OFF THAN PEOPLE WHO
PLAY THE HORSES, OR VISIT THE CASINOS.
Frankly, I think your chances are better at the crap table than in
stocks or bonds!
The wheels seem to be coming off the "recovery," and every gas
station is a source of GLOOM AND DOOM now.
AND NOW THIS NEW TERROR THREAT FOR THE SUMMER.
SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY....OR AT LEAST AS FAR AWAY AS YOU CAN AFFORD
THE GAS TO GO.
IT'S A GOOD DAY TO SELL.
I'M 90% IN CASH FROM NOW UNTIL THE ELECTION; HOLDING ONLY GOLD, GAS
AND OIL FOR THE DURATION.
Am I afraid of "missing the boat?" NOT A BIT OF IT!
What boat? The market is more like a bus!
Trust me, there's a new chance to get on-board every 10 minutes!
We'll know a lot more starting in 2005 and with the new
administration in Washington. Plenty of time.
Right now risk avoidance and capital preservation is the name of the
game.
WHOSE WHO IN IRAQ?
News that Fallujah is now under strict ISLAMIC LAW has got to be a
little shocking.
Fallujah is in the Sunni Triangle. And, the Sunnis were supposed to
be the "secular Muslims," who benefited from Saddam's "worldliness."
But now, those once "hip" Sunnis seem to be going fundamentalist just
like the "good," or is it now "bad," Shia!
Fallujha Alcohol sellers are being publically whipped, and women must
keep their heads covered in public. Shades of the Taliban! Is this
Dubya's notion of progress?
Well, anyway the neocon focus now is on killing Shia in the South.
Indeed, the Shia south of Iraq seems to be going "Fallujah," as Shia
militas and the US army have pitched battles near the Shia "holy
sites."
WORSE YET, THE WHOLE WORLD SEEMS TO BE TURNING ANTI-DUBYA AND ANTI-
SHARON EN MASSE!
ALL THE WORLD'S SYMPATHY IS NOW WITH THE PALESTINIANS AND THE "BRAVE LITTLE IRAQIS" FIGHTING THE "SATANIC" OCCUPATION.
SHARON'S BIG KILLING ADVENTURES IN GAZA;
AND DUBYA'S "KARBALA KARNAGE" ARE BEING SEEN AS FRUITLESS AND
UNPRODUCTIVE, OR CRIMINAL!
And now, our new SUMMER OF TERROR is being outlined by Ridge, et at.
In the event of a large terror attack in the US or Israel, this
summer would the world be sympathetic to Dubya and Sharon, like after
911?
Or, would the attitude be that it's just deserved "pay back" for the
fun and games in Gaza, and the abuses in Iraq and Afganhistan?
FURTHERMORE, THIS NOTION OF DUBYA, (0R COLIN), GOING TO THE UN AND
NATO AND RECIEVING "HELP" IS JUST A LITTLE BIT NUTTY!
I mean after all that has happen? Oh Pleaseeeee....!
But, the REAL TEST of the legitimacy of the "new government" in Iraq
will be: IF it asks the US and Britain to PLEASE LEAVE, ASAP!
SORT OF A: THANK YOU VERY MUCH, NOW GO!
If the new government DOES NOT ask the foreigners to leave ASAP;
IT WILL BE SEEN AS A BUNCH OF "QUISLINGS," AND A PUPPET OF THE
AMERICANS; AND ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOSE. AGAIN.
And alas, those in the new government will likely have the life
expectancy of an exotic sub-atomic particle; outside of the "green
zone."
And, is there even going to be a "green zone?"
Or, will the US military pull back into the desert, and await further
instructions?
(From Sharon and the Likud! Ouch, that was low! But true?)
Well, I guess we will soon find out: WHOSE WHO IN IRAQ, thanks to a
mere UN employee; not Dubya and the Imperial Neocons!
EVERYTHING'S GOING "FALLUJAH" NOW!
little shocking.
Fallujah is in the Sunni Triangle. And, the Sunnis were supposed to
be the "secular Muslims," who benefited from Saddam's "worldliness."
But now, those once "hip" Sunnis seem to be going fundamentalist just
like the "good," or is it now "bad," Shia!
Fallujha Alcohol sellers are being publically whipped, and women must
keep their heads covered in public. Shades of the Taliban! Is this
Dubya's notion of progress?
Well, anyway the neocon focus now is on killing Shia in the South.
Indeed, the Shia south of Iraq seems to be going "Fallujah," as Shia
militas and the US army have pitched battles near the Shia "holy
sites."
WORSE YET, THE WHOLE WORLD SEEMS TO BE TURNING ANTI-DUBYA AND ANTI-
SHARON EN MASSE!
ALL THE WORLD'S SYMPATHY IS NOW WITH THE PALESTINIANS AND THE "BRAVE LITTLE IRAQIS" FIGHTING THE "SATANIC" OCCUPATION.
SHARON'S BIG KILLING ADVENTURES IN GAZA;
AND DUBYA'S "KARBALA KARNAGE" ARE BEING SEEN AS FRUITLESS AND
UNPRODUCTIVE, OR CRIMINAL!
And now, our new SUMMER OF TERROR is being outlined by Ridge, et at.
In the event of a large terror attack in the US or Israel, this
summer would the world be sympathetic to Dubya and Sharon, like after
911?
Or, would the attitude be that it's just deserved "pay back" for the
fun and games in Gaza, and the abuses in Iraq and Afganhistan?
FURTHERMORE, THIS NOTION OF DUBYA, (0R COLIN), GOING TO THE UN AND
NATO AND RECIEVING "HELP" IS JUST A LITTLE BIT NUTTY!
I mean after all that has happen? Oh Pleaseeeee....!
But, the REAL TEST of the legitimacy of the "new government" in Iraq
will be: IF it asks the US and Britain to PLEASE LEAVE, ASAP!
SORT OF A: THANK YOU VERY MUCH, NOW GO!
If the new government DOES NOT ask the foreigners to leave ASAP;
IT WILL BE SEEN AS A BUNCH OF "QUISLINGS," AND A PUPPET OF THE
AMERICANS; AND ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOSE. AGAIN.
And alas, those in the new government will likely have the life
expectancy of an exotic sub-atomic particle; outside of the "green
zone."
And, is there even going to be a "green zone?"
Or, will the US military pull back into the desert, and await further
instructions?
(From Sharon and the Likud! Ouch, that was low! But true?)
Well, I guess we will soon find out: WHOSE WHO IN IRAQ, thanks to a
mere UN employee; not Dubya and the Imperial Neocons!
EVERYTHING'S GOING "FALLUJAH" NOW!
Tuesday, May 25, 2004
DUBYA'S SAD SPEECH.
Dubya's speech to explain it all to the world was pretty sad really.
So, what's new: Well, the US is going to built it's own maximum
security prison, and tear down Saddam's prison!
All probably at US taxpayer expense, and with no-bid contracts going
to Cheney's Cronies! Ya suppose?
But, IF the nice Iraqis are going to take over on July 1, why does
the US even need a prison in Iraq? Let the Iraqis decide what to do
with the prison system!
Well, you know.....it's just Dubya talkin I guess.
And, you know, Dubya fell down and hit his head again. This time
supposedly falling off a bike. Who knew Dubya was a big mountain
biker! Maybe that's why the speech was not on the networks?
The last time Dubya fell and hit his head, he was Knocked Out by a pretzel, and, decided to closely examine the corner of a coffee table. Remember?
WELL, ALL I CAN SAY IS IT'S A DAMN GOOD THING THAT DUBYA HAS "QUIT
DRINKING!"
HE HAS QUIT DRINKING HASN'T HE? WELL,.....HASN'T HE?
BECAUSE THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING IN IRAQ, IT WOULD DRIVE ANYONE TO
DRINK!
Now, if you'll excuse me I'm going to have a drink.....one of those
drinks that Dubya has given up! Hasn't he? Well,........?
The Kerry camp might consider running an ad that says:
VOTE FOR KERRY, HE VERY SELDOM SUFFERS CLOSED HEAD INJURIES!
Postscript: He has quit drinking, right? Ahh.....can you repeat
the question..................
So, what's new: Well, the US is going to built it's own maximum
security prison, and tear down Saddam's prison!
All probably at US taxpayer expense, and with no-bid contracts going
to Cheney's Cronies! Ya suppose?
But, IF the nice Iraqis are going to take over on July 1, why does
the US even need a prison in Iraq? Let the Iraqis decide what to do
with the prison system!
Well, you know.....it's just Dubya talkin I guess.
And, you know, Dubya fell down and hit his head again. This time
supposedly falling off a bike. Who knew Dubya was a big mountain
biker! Maybe that's why the speech was not on the networks?
The last time Dubya fell and hit his head, he was Knocked Out by a pretzel, and, decided to closely examine the corner of a coffee table. Remember?
WELL, ALL I CAN SAY IS IT'S A DAMN GOOD THING THAT DUBYA HAS "QUIT
DRINKING!"
HE HAS QUIT DRINKING HASN'T HE? WELL,.....HASN'T HE?
BECAUSE THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING IN IRAQ, IT WOULD DRIVE ANYONE TO
DRINK!
Now, if you'll excuse me I'm going to have a drink.....one of those
drinks that Dubya has given up! Hasn't he? Well,........?
The Kerry camp might consider running an ad that says:
VOTE FOR KERRY, HE VERY SELDOM SUFFERS CLOSED HEAD INJURIES!
Postscript: He has quit drinking, right? Ahh.....can you repeat
the question..................
Monday, May 24, 2004
DUBYA EXPLAINS IT ALL!
Finally, Dubya is going to tell us about his "Plan B" for Iraq!
Finally!
Well, better late than never............?
I hope he has an "explanation" for the naked Iraqis being paraded
around with excrement smeared on them. Ya think?
And, those dog attacks and prison rapes of women and children also
could use a bit of explanation. Ya suppose?
But, my sense is that Dubya will stick to the Sharonist Likud Party
Line, which is that: If only we kill a few more of them, everything
will be just fine. "They" will "give up." They will fear us.
But still, exactly how the killings and mosque bombings in Shia areas
will "help" needs an explanation too.
I mean these "Bad Shia" have families and extended families in
Southern Iraq, and they must be feeling a little bitterness about now.
Also, in Baghdad, can we "win" while Sadr City is in open rebellion?
Dubya should also explain how the new UN-US hand-picked "government"
is going to have ANY credibity;
Since even Dr.Chalabi, the Pentagon's Stooge, and CIA Central
Casting's "Karzi look-a-like," is violently anti-American.
Indeed, those "hand-picked" members of the "government" will likely
be a sorry lot.
WHO WOULD EVEN TAKE THE JOB OF TEMPORARY "UN-US QUISLING"....IN THIS
POISONOUS ENVIRONMENT?
Well, perhaps the need for "temps" is as strong in Iraq as it is in
the US?
Do you think Dubya will answer any of these questions?
Or, will Dubya's Plan "B" tonight from the Oval Office consist of:
"We've got to stop these trained killers who hate freedom. We've got
to take the fight to the terrorists and killers, who are trying to
kill us. They want to kill us because, well,...we're good. They
hate freedom. But we will prevail. Because, we ain't leavin'....."
Yada Yada......
THE REAL QUESTION DUBYA SHOULD ANSWER IS:
WHY HE DOESN'T JUST RESIGN NOW, INSTEAD OF MAKING US ALL WAIT FOR
EIGHT LONG MONTHS;
UNTIL THE KERRY TEAM CAN TAKE CHARGE IN WASHINGTON, AND RESTORE SOME
SANITY AND CREDIBILTY TO OUR GEO-POLITICAL SITUATION!
WELL ANYWAY; DUBYA EXPLAINS IT ALL. TONIGHT.
I CAN HARDLY WAIT...........
(How many days from now until January 20?)
Finally!
Well, better late than never............?
I hope he has an "explanation" for the naked Iraqis being paraded
around with excrement smeared on them. Ya think?
And, those dog attacks and prison rapes of women and children also
could use a bit of explanation. Ya suppose?
But, my sense is that Dubya will stick to the Sharonist Likud Party
Line, which is that: If only we kill a few more of them, everything
will be just fine. "They" will "give up." They will fear us.
But still, exactly how the killings and mosque bombings in Shia areas
will "help" needs an explanation too.
I mean these "Bad Shia" have families and extended families in
Southern Iraq, and they must be feeling a little bitterness about now.
Also, in Baghdad, can we "win" while Sadr City is in open rebellion?
Dubya should also explain how the new UN-US hand-picked "government"
is going to have ANY credibity;
Since even Dr.Chalabi, the Pentagon's Stooge, and CIA Central
Casting's "Karzi look-a-like," is violently anti-American.
Indeed, those "hand-picked" members of the "government" will likely
be a sorry lot.
WHO WOULD EVEN TAKE THE JOB OF TEMPORARY "UN-US QUISLING"....IN THIS
POISONOUS ENVIRONMENT?
Well, perhaps the need for "temps" is as strong in Iraq as it is in
the US?
Do you think Dubya will answer any of these questions?
Or, will Dubya's Plan "B" tonight from the Oval Office consist of:
"We've got to stop these trained killers who hate freedom. We've got
to take the fight to the terrorists and killers, who are trying to
kill us. They want to kill us because, well,...we're good. They
hate freedom. But we will prevail. Because, we ain't leavin'....."
Yada Yada......
THE REAL QUESTION DUBYA SHOULD ANSWER IS:
WHY HE DOESN'T JUST RESIGN NOW, INSTEAD OF MAKING US ALL WAIT FOR
EIGHT LONG MONTHS;
UNTIL THE KERRY TEAM CAN TAKE CHARGE IN WASHINGTON, AND RESTORE SOME
SANITY AND CREDIBILTY TO OUR GEO-POLITICAL SITUATION!
WELL ANYWAY; DUBYA EXPLAINS IT ALL. TONIGHT.
I CAN HARDLY WAIT...........
(How many days from now until January 20?)
Sunday, May 23, 2004
OUR LEVERAGED RECOVERY!
If Mr Market had a nickname, it might be "Twitchy!"
Our most unusal "recovery" seems to be based almost completely on
LEVERAGE!
NOT PENT UP DEMAND. NOT RENEWED TRADE. NOT PRODUCTIVITY.
Here's the problem:
IF THE RECOVERY IS TOTALLY BASED ON LEVERAGE, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU
TAKE AWAY THE LEVERAGE? And, that's the 64 Billion Dollar question
this summer, isn't it?
IN EFFECT, IT'S THE EXTREME NATURE OF THE INTEREST RATE STIMULUS THAT
IS AT FAULT HERE;
OUR ECONOMIC "ZOMBIE" NEEDS A LOT OF "JUICE" TO KEEP MOVING! BUT
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU KNOCK THE SUPPORTS OUT?
GREENSPAN'S "MIRACLE" OF BOOM WITHOUT BUST HAS BEEN A SHAM. OR, WILL
SOON BE FOUND OUT TO BE.
In truth, the American situation is a variation on the JAPAN DISEASE
of the 80's and 90's. The only thing that really boosted Japan was
the CHINA MIRACLE, where the world beat a path to China's door for
the cheap and docile coolie labor. (Those Communists are good "team
players!")
Indeed, now that China is going El-Busto, suddenly Japan is back in
it's funk.
Please note that when one Fed Gov when "dovish" last week the dollar
plunged.
So, Greenspan is LOCKED INTO a rate hike now, like a driver on
a one lane mountain road, the only reason to go forward is that the
fear of going backward is so much greater.
But consider:
Is the dollar really able to rally on a rate hike? Perhaps not!
The rate hike will be "bad for bonds" and that in turn could hit the
dollar.
The rate hike will be "bad for stocks" because it will act as a huge
MARGIN CALL on the CARRY TRADES. ALL OF THEM!
There might be some renewed attempt to fanagle the gold price, like
during the recent "bond crash."
INDEED, I THINK THAT JIGGERING GOLD MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO BOOST
THE DOLLAR THAN A RATE HIKE!
RATE HIKES ARE DEEP SURGERY IN THE ECONOMY. THE GOLD MARKET IS VERY
VERY SUPERFICIAL AND THINLY TRADED. AT LEAST NOW IT IS.
THE RATE HIKES MEAN BYE-BYE REFI. Or should I say good riddance?
The Tax Cut Fever seems to have "broke" in Congress. Indeed, the Tax
Fever also "broke" the US Treasury as well.
AND THE TWIN DEFICITS ARE REACHING GROTESQUE LEVELS, THAT FEW WILL BE
ABLE TO IGNORE, EVEN FOR THE SHORT TERM.
IN SHORT;
WHAT WE HAVE IS AN ECONOMIC "RARA AVIS"........
A RECOVERY BASED ALMOST TOTALLY ON LEVERAGING UP THE ECONOMY WITH
CHEAP MONEY AND UNPRECEDENTED LOW INTEREST RATES AND CARRY TRADES.
THE BIGGEST CARRY TRADE OF THEM ALL WAS THE CEO OPTIONS PACKAGES THAT
WERE "RESCUED" BY GREENSPAN'S CHEAP MONEY.
MAYBE THAT'S WHY THE INSIDERS HAVE BEEN SELLING THE "RECOVERY" FROM
DAY ONE!
MORE MACRO-MARKET UNPLEASANTNESS TO COME? To be sure,................so, stay tuned.
Our most unusal "recovery" seems to be based almost completely on
LEVERAGE!
NOT PENT UP DEMAND. NOT RENEWED TRADE. NOT PRODUCTIVITY.
Here's the problem:
IF THE RECOVERY IS TOTALLY BASED ON LEVERAGE, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU
TAKE AWAY THE LEVERAGE? And, that's the 64 Billion Dollar question
this summer, isn't it?
IN EFFECT, IT'S THE EXTREME NATURE OF THE INTEREST RATE STIMULUS THAT
IS AT FAULT HERE;
OUR ECONOMIC "ZOMBIE" NEEDS A LOT OF "JUICE" TO KEEP MOVING! BUT
WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU KNOCK THE SUPPORTS OUT?
GREENSPAN'S "MIRACLE" OF BOOM WITHOUT BUST HAS BEEN A SHAM. OR, WILL
SOON BE FOUND OUT TO BE.
In truth, the American situation is a variation on the JAPAN DISEASE
of the 80's and 90's. The only thing that really boosted Japan was
the CHINA MIRACLE, where the world beat a path to China's door for
the cheap and docile coolie labor. (Those Communists are good "team
players!")
Indeed, now that China is going El-Busto, suddenly Japan is back in
it's funk.
Please note that when one Fed Gov when "dovish" last week the dollar
plunged.
So, Greenspan is LOCKED INTO a rate hike now, like a driver on
a one lane mountain road, the only reason to go forward is that the
fear of going backward is so much greater.
But consider:
Is the dollar really able to rally on a rate hike? Perhaps not!
The rate hike will be "bad for bonds" and that in turn could hit the
dollar.
The rate hike will be "bad for stocks" because it will act as a huge
MARGIN CALL on the CARRY TRADES. ALL OF THEM!
There might be some renewed attempt to fanagle the gold price, like
during the recent "bond crash."
INDEED, I THINK THAT JIGGERING GOLD MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO BOOST
THE DOLLAR THAN A RATE HIKE!
RATE HIKES ARE DEEP SURGERY IN THE ECONOMY. THE GOLD MARKET IS VERY
VERY SUPERFICIAL AND THINLY TRADED. AT LEAST NOW IT IS.
THE RATE HIKES MEAN BYE-BYE REFI. Or should I say good riddance?
The Tax Cut Fever seems to have "broke" in Congress. Indeed, the Tax
Fever also "broke" the US Treasury as well.
AND THE TWIN DEFICITS ARE REACHING GROTESQUE LEVELS, THAT FEW WILL BE
ABLE TO IGNORE, EVEN FOR THE SHORT TERM.
IN SHORT;
WHAT WE HAVE IS AN ECONOMIC "RARA AVIS"........
A RECOVERY BASED ALMOST TOTALLY ON LEVERAGING UP THE ECONOMY WITH
CHEAP MONEY AND UNPRECEDENTED LOW INTEREST RATES AND CARRY TRADES.
THE BIGGEST CARRY TRADE OF THEM ALL WAS THE CEO OPTIONS PACKAGES THAT
WERE "RESCUED" BY GREENSPAN'S CHEAP MONEY.
MAYBE THAT'S WHY THE INSIDERS HAVE BEEN SELLING THE "RECOVERY" FROM
DAY ONE!
MORE MACRO-MARKET UNPLEASANTNESS TO COME? To be sure,................so, stay tuned.
Saturday, May 22, 2004
WELCOME TO THE BLOG!
WELCOME TO GLOOM AND DOOM: THE BLOG FOR OUR TIMES.
This Blog's "agenda" is not to have an agenda. The only question
asked is: WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING?
True, some may think we are "too liberal;" but that is because WE
believe that the only way to think about public policy is using "WE,"
not "ME" as the prime directive. IT'S A PRONOUN PROBLEM!
WHAT IS GOOD FOR SOCIETY AS A WHOLE? WHAT PRESERVES CONSUMER
CAPITALISM IN AMERICA?
NOT, WHAT IS GOOD FOR MY PERSONAL INTERESTS. OR, MY SPEICAL
INTERESTS.
And, that ME/WE dicotomy is really the ENTIRE difference between the
Democrats and Republicans today; on an ideological level. IT'S
REALLY ALL ABOUT PRONOUNS!
True, the teachers unions and other public sector unions are greedy!
And, they must be forced to "give good value: for the tax money they
recieve. And, yes, they can't be trusted to do this "volunarily."
BUT, A COMPLEX ECONOMY AND A MODERN SOCIETY NEEDS, INDEED REQUIRES, A
STRONG PUBLIC SECTOR INFRASTRUCTURE!
AND, THIS "STARVE THE BEAST" NONSENSE FROM SOME REPUBLICANS IS JUST A
FORMULA FOR DISASTER!
The real proof of the INTELLECTUAL BANKRUPTCY of the Republican
ideology is found in their absolute need for WEDGE ISSUES.
Gay Marriage. Abortion. Flag Burning. These issues are all non-
issues designed to DISTRACT rather than ENLIGHTEN THE ELECTORATE.
THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS IN THE TERMINAL STAGES OF BEING LOOTED BY
THE "CULT OF THE CEO" THAT TOOK OVER OUR ECONOMY AROUND 1982.
AFTER 20 YEARS OF LOOTING, AMERICAN INDUSTRY IS NO LONGER THE CENTER
OF ECONOMIC GRAVITY FOR THE WORLD!
Indeed, as more and more large companies "move to China," the smaller
companies are under increasing GRAVITATIONAL PULL to follow.
THE GRAVITATIONAL PULL OF PLANT AND EQUIPMENT IS NOW IN CHINA;
AND, THOSE AMERICAN COMPANIES THAT ARE STRUGGLING AGAINST THIS
ECONOMIC "LAW OF GRAVITY" ARE DOOMED TO FAIL.
Recently, Dubya and Chums have put the frosting on the "looting"
cake with guns, butter and tax cuts for the rich, and did I mention
THEIR "war?"
Dubya and Co. are likely the final straw in THE GREAT LOOTING that
has last these 20 years; that is how historians might see it.
But, there is absolutely no doubt that Dubya will be viewed by
history as the WORST PRESIDENT in the history of the Republic.
Far worse than the "usual suspects" like Andrew Johnson, Grant,
Harding and Hoover. Indeed, we could use the "genius" of a Grant,
Harding and Hoover just about now!
So, that's the bad news.
The good news is that we will survive! Because the people are always
stronger than the politicians; no matter how corrupt the political
class becomes. Because, Sooner or later, PEOPLE WISE UP!
True, some people are slower than others, and that's OK. Some, like
the Deaniacs and the Naderites, are "early adopters" of the need for
change. Some, blindly follow the corrupt leadership down to shame
and disaster, because they were "just following orders," or were
trying to be "Loyal Americans!"
(Or "Good Germans?")
THAT'S WHAT THIS BLOG IS ALL ABOUT; To feed this drip, drip, drip of
SAVING AMERICA FROM IT'S CURRENT CORRUPT LEADERSHIP; BOTH ON WALL
STREET AND IN WASHINGTON.
WELCOME TO GLOOM AND DOOM, THE BLOG FOR OUR TIMES!
ALWAYS HERE 24.7.366. ALWAYS FRESH! ALWAYS CUTTING EDGE! ALWAYS, I
HOPE, A LITTLE OUTRAGEOUS! NEVER HOLDING "ME TOO" OPINIONS! ALWAYS
A LITTLE BIT "EARLY," BUT ALWAYS "RIGHT" IN THE END!
BOOKMARK IT, OR JOIN TODAY!
This Blog's "agenda" is not to have an agenda. The only question
asked is: WHAT'S REALLY HAPPENING?
True, some may think we are "too liberal;" but that is because WE
believe that the only way to think about public policy is using "WE,"
not "ME" as the prime directive. IT'S A PRONOUN PROBLEM!
WHAT IS GOOD FOR SOCIETY AS A WHOLE? WHAT PRESERVES CONSUMER
CAPITALISM IN AMERICA?
NOT, WHAT IS GOOD FOR MY PERSONAL INTERESTS. OR, MY SPEICAL
INTERESTS.
And, that ME/WE dicotomy is really the ENTIRE difference between the
Democrats and Republicans today; on an ideological level. IT'S
REALLY ALL ABOUT PRONOUNS!
True, the teachers unions and other public sector unions are greedy!
And, they must be forced to "give good value: for the tax money they
recieve. And, yes, they can't be trusted to do this "volunarily."
BUT, A COMPLEX ECONOMY AND A MODERN SOCIETY NEEDS, INDEED REQUIRES, A
STRONG PUBLIC SECTOR INFRASTRUCTURE!
AND, THIS "STARVE THE BEAST" NONSENSE FROM SOME REPUBLICANS IS JUST A
FORMULA FOR DISASTER!
The real proof of the INTELLECTUAL BANKRUPTCY of the Republican
ideology is found in their absolute need for WEDGE ISSUES.
Gay Marriage. Abortion. Flag Burning. These issues are all non-
issues designed to DISTRACT rather than ENLIGHTEN THE ELECTORATE.
THE AMERICAN ECONOMY IS IN THE TERMINAL STAGES OF BEING LOOTED BY
THE "CULT OF THE CEO" THAT TOOK OVER OUR ECONOMY AROUND 1982.
AFTER 20 YEARS OF LOOTING, AMERICAN INDUSTRY IS NO LONGER THE CENTER
OF ECONOMIC GRAVITY FOR THE WORLD!
Indeed, as more and more large companies "move to China," the smaller
companies are under increasing GRAVITATIONAL PULL to follow.
THE GRAVITATIONAL PULL OF PLANT AND EQUIPMENT IS NOW IN CHINA;
AND, THOSE AMERICAN COMPANIES THAT ARE STRUGGLING AGAINST THIS
ECONOMIC "LAW OF GRAVITY" ARE DOOMED TO FAIL.
Recently, Dubya and Chums have put the frosting on the "looting"
cake with guns, butter and tax cuts for the rich, and did I mention
THEIR "war?"
Dubya and Co. are likely the final straw in THE GREAT LOOTING that
has last these 20 years; that is how historians might see it.
But, there is absolutely no doubt that Dubya will be viewed by
history as the WORST PRESIDENT in the history of the Republic.
Far worse than the "usual suspects" like Andrew Johnson, Grant,
Harding and Hoover. Indeed, we could use the "genius" of a Grant,
Harding and Hoover just about now!
So, that's the bad news.
The good news is that we will survive! Because the people are always
stronger than the politicians; no matter how corrupt the political
class becomes. Because, Sooner or later, PEOPLE WISE UP!
True, some people are slower than others, and that's OK. Some, like
the Deaniacs and the Naderites, are "early adopters" of the need for
change. Some, blindly follow the corrupt leadership down to shame
and disaster, because they were "just following orders," or were
trying to be "Loyal Americans!"
(Or "Good Germans?")
THAT'S WHAT THIS BLOG IS ALL ABOUT; To feed this drip, drip, drip of
SAVING AMERICA FROM IT'S CURRENT CORRUPT LEADERSHIP; BOTH ON WALL
STREET AND IN WASHINGTON.
WELCOME TO GLOOM AND DOOM, THE BLOG FOR OUR TIMES!
ALWAYS HERE 24.7.366. ALWAYS FRESH! ALWAYS CUTTING EDGE! ALWAYS, I
HOPE, A LITTLE OUTRAGEOUS! NEVER HOLDING "ME TOO" OPINIONS! ALWAYS
A LITTLE BIT "EARLY," BUT ALWAYS "RIGHT" IN THE END!
BOOKMARK IT, OR JOIN TODAY!
Friday, May 21, 2004
THE CHALABI AFFAIR, ETAL
Kudos to Colin for spanking Sharon on his Fun and Games in Gaza.
Sooner or later, the US will need to pull support from Sharon and the
Radical Right in Israel. Indeed, the sooner the better!
Everyone knows that Sharon's Likud and the radical right in Israel
have no intention of setting up a Palestinian state in the West Bank,
or anywhere else for that matter.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE US PUBLIC IS TOTALLY IN THE DARK ON THIS!
MARK MY WORDS: AT SOME POINT THE US IS GOING TO HAVE TO INSIST THAT
SHARON GIVE UP HIS WEST BANK AMBITIONS.
WHY?
THE ALTERNATIVE IS A GENOCIDAL WAR AGAINST THE ARABS, AND INDEED
GLOBAL ISLAM, FOUGHT BY THE US AND ISRAEL ALONE!
AND THAT, GENTLE READER, IS WHAT IS CALLED A "NON-STARTER!"
Why will we break from Israel on the West Bank?
Well, look at Iraq! It's a total disaster.
Blind support of Sharon is going to destroy the bond market, and the
dollar. And, that will do more damage to the global economy than any
terrorist vandals ever could.
If Dubya had at least tried to be the HONEST BROKER, maybe, just
maybe, the WTC would still be standing. (Although the bad blood
between Osama and the Bush Family was intense no matter what Michael
Moore says!)
Seperately, the fall out with Chalabi was predictable. Chalabi is a
total opportunist, and now perhaps a double agent, if new reports are
correct. Still, scapegoating Chalabi for a war that Dubya and Rummy
and Wolfie dearly wanted will only pacify the talk radio crowd, and
few others.
Rummy's denial of knowledge of the raid on Chalabi's house was too
clever by half. If Rummy keeps denying knowledge about "things" in
Iraq, we could have a crime of omission, not commission on our hands
eventually. And for the person in charge? That's just as bad.
Because; Sooner or later the whole world is going to want to know:
EXACTLY WHOSE RUNNING THIS WAR!
The PFC's, the Corporals, the Captains! Oh, Pleasee.........!
Finally, the situation in the South of Iraq with the Shia is not
getting much press lately. Even though the "holy sites" are being
invaded, and there is street fighting all round the "holy shrines."
Wassup with that?
IF THE SHIA RISE UP AGAINST THE OCCUPATION, THE TRANSFER OF POWER ON
JUNE 30 COULD BECOME A MOOT POINT!
Alas, poor Kerry! If he articulates a "policy" on Iraq, he's running
a shadow government and undermining the president! And, given the
total disaster that Iraq has become, who can really give an answer to
Dubya's bankrupt policy breakdowns?
Kerry's best response to the question: What would you do different
in Iraq should be:
I WILL NOT BE GEORGE W. BUSH!
INDEED, THE ROAD OUT OF THIS GEO-POLITICAL DISASTER HAS TO START WITH
THAT FACT, AS THE BASIC PREMISE!
SADDLY, IT'S SINE QUA NON FOR PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST NOW! LET'S
HOPE THE AMERICAN VOTER "GETS THE PICTURE."
Sooner or later, the US will need to pull support from Sharon and the
Radical Right in Israel. Indeed, the sooner the better!
Everyone knows that Sharon's Likud and the radical right in Israel
have no intention of setting up a Palestinian state in the West Bank,
or anywhere else for that matter.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE US PUBLIC IS TOTALLY IN THE DARK ON THIS!
MARK MY WORDS: AT SOME POINT THE US IS GOING TO HAVE TO INSIST THAT
SHARON GIVE UP HIS WEST BANK AMBITIONS.
WHY?
THE ALTERNATIVE IS A GENOCIDAL WAR AGAINST THE ARABS, AND INDEED
GLOBAL ISLAM, FOUGHT BY THE US AND ISRAEL ALONE!
AND THAT, GENTLE READER, IS WHAT IS CALLED A "NON-STARTER!"
Why will we break from Israel on the West Bank?
Well, look at Iraq! It's a total disaster.
Blind support of Sharon is going to destroy the bond market, and the
dollar. And, that will do more damage to the global economy than any
terrorist vandals ever could.
If Dubya had at least tried to be the HONEST BROKER, maybe, just
maybe, the WTC would still be standing. (Although the bad blood
between Osama and the Bush Family was intense no matter what Michael
Moore says!)
Seperately, the fall out with Chalabi was predictable. Chalabi is a
total opportunist, and now perhaps a double agent, if new reports are
correct. Still, scapegoating Chalabi for a war that Dubya and Rummy
and Wolfie dearly wanted will only pacify the talk radio crowd, and
few others.
Rummy's denial of knowledge of the raid on Chalabi's house was too
clever by half. If Rummy keeps denying knowledge about "things" in
Iraq, we could have a crime of omission, not commission on our hands
eventually. And for the person in charge? That's just as bad.
Because; Sooner or later the whole world is going to want to know:
EXACTLY WHOSE RUNNING THIS WAR!
The PFC's, the Corporals, the Captains! Oh, Pleasee.........!
Finally, the situation in the South of Iraq with the Shia is not
getting much press lately. Even though the "holy sites" are being
invaded, and there is street fighting all round the "holy shrines."
Wassup with that?
IF THE SHIA RISE UP AGAINST THE OCCUPATION, THE TRANSFER OF POWER ON
JUNE 30 COULD BECOME A MOOT POINT!
Alas, poor Kerry! If he articulates a "policy" on Iraq, he's running
a shadow government and undermining the president! And, given the
total disaster that Iraq has become, who can really give an answer to
Dubya's bankrupt policy breakdowns?
Kerry's best response to the question: What would you do different
in Iraq should be:
I WILL NOT BE GEORGE W. BUSH!
INDEED, THE ROAD OUT OF THIS GEO-POLITICAL DISASTER HAS TO START WITH
THAT FACT, AS THE BASIC PREMISE!
SADDLY, IT'S SINE QUA NON FOR PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST NOW! LET'S
HOPE THE AMERICAN VOTER "GETS THE PICTURE."
Thursday, May 20, 2004
BOND MARKET RADIOACTIVE
The demise of yeild investing has been dramatic.
Bonds seem to be radioactive. And, REITs are declining again.
But still, it was not that long ago when you could get 5% on a Bank
CD!
Indeed, I've probably got an old 5% CD around here someplace.
A "normal" interest rate is not really ancient history, although in
the markets today is seems so.
So, why do we get excited about a 6% REIT?
Or a closed end Muni Fund with 7% yeilds?
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THE HUGE NUMBER OF CLOSED
END "INCOME" FUNDS FARE IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
Remember, the closed end income funds are ALL relatively new!
And, those older ones were considered "crackpot" investments, way
back during the olden days of "normal" rates! A few years ago!
HOW WILL NEW "NORMAL RATES" EFFECT THE VAST CLOSED END UNIVERSE NOW
AVAILABLE!
My hunch is that if bank rates go back to 5%, few people will take a
chance on closed end funds, for only a percent or two more in yeild.
Why bother? It is worth the risks? Why have a brokerage commission between you and your money?
ALL INCOME INVESTING HAS BECOME RADIOACTIVE LATELY.
BUT, IF MR G IS GOING TO RAISE RATES AS PER THE STREET YADA YADA?
HE HAD BETTER DO SO QUICKLY!
BEFORE A GENERAL PANIC SETS IN.
OTHERWISE, HE MIGHT HAVE TO LOWER RATES JUST TO STOP THE PANIC!!
lol.
(What a tangled mess Greenspan's "Bubblenomics" has become.
COMING NEXT! CAN GREENSPAN USE GOLD TO "CONTROL" OIL AND THE
DOLLAR! AND NOT INTEREST RATES! SHOCKING TRUTH REVEALED!
Bonds seem to be radioactive. And, REITs are declining again.
But still, it was not that long ago when you could get 5% on a Bank
CD!
Indeed, I've probably got an old 5% CD around here someplace.
A "normal" interest rate is not really ancient history, although in
the markets today is seems so.
So, why do we get excited about a 6% REIT?
Or a closed end Muni Fund with 7% yeilds?
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH HOW THE HUGE NUMBER OF CLOSED
END "INCOME" FUNDS FARE IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
Remember, the closed end income funds are ALL relatively new!
And, those older ones were considered "crackpot" investments, way
back during the olden days of "normal" rates! A few years ago!
HOW WILL NEW "NORMAL RATES" EFFECT THE VAST CLOSED END UNIVERSE NOW
AVAILABLE!
My hunch is that if bank rates go back to 5%, few people will take a
chance on closed end funds, for only a percent or two more in yeild.
Why bother? It is worth the risks? Why have a brokerage commission between you and your money?
ALL INCOME INVESTING HAS BECOME RADIOACTIVE LATELY.
BUT, IF MR G IS GOING TO RAISE RATES AS PER THE STREET YADA YADA?
HE HAD BETTER DO SO QUICKLY!
BEFORE A GENERAL PANIC SETS IN.
OTHERWISE, HE MIGHT HAVE TO LOWER RATES JUST TO STOP THE PANIC!!
lol.
(What a tangled mess Greenspan's "Bubblenomics" has become.
COMING NEXT! CAN GREENSPAN USE GOLD TO "CONTROL" OIL AND THE
DOLLAR! AND NOT INTEREST RATES! SHOCKING TRUTH REVEALED!
DOOMSDAY DEMOGRAPHICS
Yestderday, USAToday had an interesting front page graphic:
Apparently, the percentage of childless women between the ages of 40
and 44, in the US has nearly doubled. From: 10% in 1976 to an
astonding 18% in 2002!
IF DEMOGRAPHICS IS DESTINY. WHAT DOES THIS TELL US ABOUT THE FUTURE
OF AMERICA?
Consider:
It is likely that the doubling of childless women also mirrors the
doubling of women in law schools between the same years 1976 and 2002.
MANY, IF NOT MOST, OF THESE CHILDLESS WOMEN ARE PROBABLY IN
"LIBERATING" PROFESSIONAL CAREERS; BUSINESS. LAW. MEDICINE.
OK, what's wrong with that?
Here's the problem: The decline of fertility rates among "high IQ"
women could have profound effects on the quality of life in America
later in this Century.
Why?
Genes are funny things. You either use 'em, or you lose 'em. And,
you lose 'em quite fast. The window of opportunity for reproduction
is relatively small for most people, perhaps 20 years.
If we are putting high IQ women into jobs that men used to do;
And thereby, neglecting the PRODUCTION of the NEXT GENERATION as a
result of this deliberate "social policy." There will be a price to
pay-someday. And perhaps, soon.
The next generation of Americans will be skewed toward the lower end
of intelligence and perhaps creativity.
NOW, I REALIZE THAT ALL OF THIS SMACKS OF THE EVILS OF EUGENETICS,
WHICH HAS BEEN AN UNTOUCHABLE SUBJECT FOR DECADES NOW.
BUT IS ANY OF THIS TRUE?
Many school teachers complain of the "quality" of children in the US
education system. Of course, some of these quality issues might be
cultural. Or, caused by lowest common denominator network
television, video games, etc.
BUT STILL, I RESERVE MY RIGHT TO BE ALARMED BY THE FACT THAT
AMERICANS ARE APPARENTLY BECOMING STUPIDER; NOT SMARTER!
(How else can you explain the wide-scale support for Dubya in 2000!)
AND, AT LEAST, SOME OF THIS DECLINE MAY BE THE RESULT OF OUR FAILED
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICY;
THAT HAS FORCED PRODUCING THE NEXT GENERATION DOWN THE PRIORITY LIST
FOR MANY WOMEN;
PARTICULARLY, THOSE HIGHER IQ WOMEN NOW IN PROFESSIONAL CAREERS, FOR
WHOM THE BIOLOGICAL CLOCK HAS, ALAS, STOPPED TICKING!
Of course, we can all be grateful that Tom Friedman's BELOVED "smart
little Indians" will pick up the slack.
And, that a disasterous global BRAINS SHORTAGE may not be
looming......
BUT STILL, WITH THE RAVENOUS THREAT OF CHINA AND INDIA TO THE
AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS;
I SENSE THAT AN UNIQUE ANGLO-AMERICAN BRAINS SHORTAGE MAY BE ALREADY
UPON US;
AND THAT THE ROLE OF AMERICANS IN THE WORLD WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED BEFORE THIS CENTURY IS OVER.
OF COURSE, I DON'T "BLAME" THE CHINESE OR THE INDIANS FOR THEIR NEW
FOUND POWER.
BUT, I DO MOURN FOR THE AMERICANS:
WHO SEEM TO HAVE ONLY THEMSELVES TO BLAME FOR THEIR RECENT AND
UNFORTUNATE DECLINE IN THE WORLD.
Apparently, the percentage of childless women between the ages of 40
and 44, in the US has nearly doubled. From: 10% in 1976 to an
astonding 18% in 2002!
IF DEMOGRAPHICS IS DESTINY. WHAT DOES THIS TELL US ABOUT THE FUTURE
OF AMERICA?
Consider:
It is likely that the doubling of childless women also mirrors the
doubling of women in law schools between the same years 1976 and 2002.
MANY, IF NOT MOST, OF THESE CHILDLESS WOMEN ARE PROBABLY IN
"LIBERATING" PROFESSIONAL CAREERS; BUSINESS. LAW. MEDICINE.
OK, what's wrong with that?
Here's the problem: The decline of fertility rates among "high IQ"
women could have profound effects on the quality of life in America
later in this Century.
Why?
Genes are funny things. You either use 'em, or you lose 'em. And,
you lose 'em quite fast. The window of opportunity for reproduction
is relatively small for most people, perhaps 20 years.
If we are putting high IQ women into jobs that men used to do;
And thereby, neglecting the PRODUCTION of the NEXT GENERATION as a
result of this deliberate "social policy." There will be a price to
pay-someday. And perhaps, soon.
The next generation of Americans will be skewed toward the lower end
of intelligence and perhaps creativity.
NOW, I REALIZE THAT ALL OF THIS SMACKS OF THE EVILS OF EUGENETICS,
WHICH HAS BEEN AN UNTOUCHABLE SUBJECT FOR DECADES NOW.
BUT IS ANY OF THIS TRUE?
Many school teachers complain of the "quality" of children in the US
education system. Of course, some of these quality issues might be
cultural. Or, caused by lowest common denominator network
television, video games, etc.
BUT STILL, I RESERVE MY RIGHT TO BE ALARMED BY THE FACT THAT
AMERICANS ARE APPARENTLY BECOMING STUPIDER; NOT SMARTER!
(How else can you explain the wide-scale support for Dubya in 2000!)
AND, AT LEAST, SOME OF THIS DECLINE MAY BE THE RESULT OF OUR FAILED
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL POLICY;
THAT HAS FORCED PRODUCING THE NEXT GENERATION DOWN THE PRIORITY LIST
FOR MANY WOMEN;
PARTICULARLY, THOSE HIGHER IQ WOMEN NOW IN PROFESSIONAL CAREERS, FOR
WHOM THE BIOLOGICAL CLOCK HAS, ALAS, STOPPED TICKING!
Of course, we can all be grateful that Tom Friedman's BELOVED "smart
little Indians" will pick up the slack.
And, that a disasterous global BRAINS SHORTAGE may not be
looming......
BUT STILL, WITH THE RAVENOUS THREAT OF CHINA AND INDIA TO THE
AMERICAN MIDDLE CLASS;
I SENSE THAT AN UNIQUE ANGLO-AMERICAN BRAINS SHORTAGE MAY BE ALREADY
UPON US;
AND THAT THE ROLE OF AMERICANS IN THE WORLD WILL BE GREATLY
DIMINISHED BEFORE THIS CENTURY IS OVER.
OF COURSE, I DON'T "BLAME" THE CHINESE OR THE INDIANS FOR THEIR NEW
FOUND POWER.
BUT, I DO MOURN FOR THE AMERICANS:
WHO SEEM TO HAVE ONLY THEMSELVES TO BLAME FOR THEIR RECENT AND
UNFORTUNATE DECLINE IN THE WORLD.
Wednesday, May 19, 2004
RE: DOINGS IN IRAQ
The recent "show trial" regarding the prison abuse will satisfy no
one; and will probably outrage even more people.
This thing is going straight to the top, sooner or later. So, stay
tuned..............
News reports that the Shia are blocking off the streets in Sadr
City is not a good sign!
And, Sistani's recent "double speak" will sooner or later turn
against the occupation, and not Sadr, as hoped by the Bremer & Co.
And, the notion that a "New Government" somehow appointed by the UN
will have any legitimacy at all is just very very strange wishful
thinking. Perhaps "grasping at straws" would describe it better.
After all, the UN was blown out of Iraq early on. And, the Iraqi
public hates the UN almost as much as the NeoCons do!
Furthermore, The US might as will make Chalabi the President on July
first!
Because, who, with any legitimacy in Iraq, would serve in this UN/US
PUPPET GOVERNMENT! NO ONE!
THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY AFTER
THE "ELECTIONS!"
WHICH WILL PROBABLY NEVER HAPPEN, (BUT THAT'S ANOTHER STORY.)
Finally, news that the US cut off Chalabi's $300,000 per month
allowance yesterday was interesting.
We should be asking for our money back; for all the bad "intel"
Chalabi's group provided to the Pentagon Lukudniks---To allow Wolfie
to justify the War in Iraq which he wanted to do anyway!
one; and will probably outrage even more people.
This thing is going straight to the top, sooner or later. So, stay
tuned..............
News reports that the Shia are blocking off the streets in Sadr
City is not a good sign!
And, Sistani's recent "double speak" will sooner or later turn
against the occupation, and not Sadr, as hoped by the Bremer & Co.
And, the notion that a "New Government" somehow appointed by the UN
will have any legitimacy at all is just very very strange wishful
thinking. Perhaps "grasping at straws" would describe it better.
After all, the UN was blown out of Iraq early on. And, the Iraqi
public hates the UN almost as much as the NeoCons do!
Furthermore, The US might as will make Chalabi the President on July
first!
Because, who, with any legitimacy in Iraq, would serve in this UN/US
PUPPET GOVERNMENT! NO ONE!
THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY AFTER
THE "ELECTIONS!"
WHICH WILL PROBABLY NEVER HAPPEN, (BUT THAT'S ANOTHER STORY.)
Finally, news that the US cut off Chalabi's $300,000 per month
allowance yesterday was interesting.
We should be asking for our money back; for all the bad "intel"
Chalabi's group provided to the Pentagon Lukudniks---To allow Wolfie
to justify the War in Iraq which he wanted to do anyway!
MORE GREENSPANOMICS!
With the re-appointment of Greenspan, Dubya now has his "A" Team in
place, Greenspan will run the economy, and Rummy and Wolfie will run
the War in Iraq.
And, very likely the voters will run them all out of Washington in
November!
Interestingly, there is now some noise that Mr G may NOT have to
raise rates, now that oil is acting as a "tax" on the economy,
slowing it.
AMAZING! Didn't I predict that Greenspan would NEVER raise rates?
CONSIDER: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALL THE EASY MONEY SPECULATION
FOSTERED BY THE FED; THE US ECONOMY IS REALLY RATHER SLACK.
Wages are punk. Job growth is "iffy." Capacity Utilization is
flabby. Capex is in the eye of the beholder. And, China is
exporting deflation with every boat that leaves it's happy shores.
SO, WHY RAISE RATES? IS OUR BELOVED ASSET SPECULATION SUDDENLY A
PERSONA NON GRATA IN THE US ECONOMY?
HOWEVER THERE IS THE OIL PROBLEM; WHICH IS ODDLY TIED TO THE DOLLAR;
AND NOT REALLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
A WEAK DOLLAR MEANS HIGH OIL PRICES, AND ACTUALLY HIGH COMMODITY
PRICES IN GENERAL.
ALAS, EASY MONEY FOR STOCK SPECULATION CAN NOT BE HERMETICALLY SEALED
OFF FROM EASY MONEY FOR COMMODITY SPECULATION.
AND THAT, GENTLE READER, IS REALLY GREENSPAN'S PROBLEM NOW.
NOT THE TEAMING MIDDLE CLASS MASSES IN CHINA! NOT YET ANYWAY.....
Note well, that any attempt to ACTUALLY raise rates will crash bonds,
derivitives, real estate and the various and sundry "carry trades,"
known and unknown, that are still out there.
SO, WATCH FOR INCREASING TALK ABOUT HOW A RATE HIKE IS NOT NECESSARY,
AT LEAST NOT TO SLOW THE US ECONOMY.
NOW, HOW FOREIGNERS REACT IS ANOTHER MATTER!
ONCE THE NEWS IS OUT THAT RATES ARE NOT GOING UP. FOREIGNERS MIGHT
SELL THE DOLLAR, AND/OR CRASH THE US BOND MARKET.
SAY, HELLO TO MR. EURO 130! REMEMBER HIM?
THEN AND ONLY THEN, WILL GREENSPAN BE TRULY FORCED TO RAISE RATES!
I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THAT GREENSPAN WILL ONLY RAISE RATES TO DEFEND THE DOLLAR, AND NOTHING ELSE!
MR G LOVES THE PUNCH BOWL, AND HE IS TOO OLD TO GIVE UP BAD HABITS NOW...........
AS LONG AS FOREIGNERS KEEP SENDING US THEIR MONEY, RATES WILL NOT GO
UP. AND RIGHT NOW, ANYWAY, THE FOREIGN MOOLA IS STILL ROLLING IN.
POSTSCRIPT: And, the fact that two or three rate hikes are "already"
priced into bonds, during an election year is a little nutty.
Because if these hikes ACTUALLY do occur, the chattering classes will
have a field day. That's is another reason why I suspect the rate
hikes will remain, for now: JUST TALK!
place, Greenspan will run the economy, and Rummy and Wolfie will run
the War in Iraq.
And, very likely the voters will run them all out of Washington in
November!
Interestingly, there is now some noise that Mr G may NOT have to
raise rates, now that oil is acting as a "tax" on the economy,
slowing it.
AMAZING! Didn't I predict that Greenspan would NEVER raise rates?
CONSIDER: WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALL THE EASY MONEY SPECULATION
FOSTERED BY THE FED; THE US ECONOMY IS REALLY RATHER SLACK.
Wages are punk. Job growth is "iffy." Capacity Utilization is
flabby. Capex is in the eye of the beholder. And, China is
exporting deflation with every boat that leaves it's happy shores.
SO, WHY RAISE RATES? IS OUR BELOVED ASSET SPECULATION SUDDENLY A
PERSONA NON GRATA IN THE US ECONOMY?
HOWEVER THERE IS THE OIL PROBLEM; WHICH IS ODDLY TIED TO THE DOLLAR;
AND NOT REALLY SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
A WEAK DOLLAR MEANS HIGH OIL PRICES, AND ACTUALLY HIGH COMMODITY
PRICES IN GENERAL.
ALAS, EASY MONEY FOR STOCK SPECULATION CAN NOT BE HERMETICALLY SEALED
OFF FROM EASY MONEY FOR COMMODITY SPECULATION.
AND THAT, GENTLE READER, IS REALLY GREENSPAN'S PROBLEM NOW.
NOT THE TEAMING MIDDLE CLASS MASSES IN CHINA! NOT YET ANYWAY.....
Note well, that any attempt to ACTUALLY raise rates will crash bonds,
derivitives, real estate and the various and sundry "carry trades,"
known and unknown, that are still out there.
SO, WATCH FOR INCREASING TALK ABOUT HOW A RATE HIKE IS NOT NECESSARY,
AT LEAST NOT TO SLOW THE US ECONOMY.
NOW, HOW FOREIGNERS REACT IS ANOTHER MATTER!
ONCE THE NEWS IS OUT THAT RATES ARE NOT GOING UP. FOREIGNERS MIGHT
SELL THE DOLLAR, AND/OR CRASH THE US BOND MARKET.
SAY, HELLO TO MR. EURO 130! REMEMBER HIM?
THEN AND ONLY THEN, WILL GREENSPAN BE TRULY FORCED TO RAISE RATES!
I HAVE ALWAYS SAID THAT GREENSPAN WILL ONLY RAISE RATES TO DEFEND THE DOLLAR, AND NOTHING ELSE!
MR G LOVES THE PUNCH BOWL, AND HE IS TOO OLD TO GIVE UP BAD HABITS NOW...........
AS LONG AS FOREIGNERS KEEP SENDING US THEIR MONEY, RATES WILL NOT GO
UP. AND RIGHT NOW, ANYWAY, THE FOREIGN MOOLA IS STILL ROLLING IN.
POSTSCRIPT: And, the fact that two or three rate hikes are "already"
priced into bonds, during an election year is a little nutty.
Because if these hikes ACTUALLY do occur, the chattering classes will
have a field day. That's is another reason why I suspect the rate
hikes will remain, for now: JUST TALK!
Tuesday, May 18, 2004
BAD SEED?
Krugman's recent comparision of Dubya to the "bad sons" of British aristocrats in 19th Century novels was.....interesting.
These were those prodigal sons of previlege who ran up gambling debts "at the club," and owed their tailors small fortunes for their ever-changing sartorial requirments.
Indeed, while Kerry was being the "good son," and establishing his record of "flip-flops" in the rough and tumble world of our national legislature;
Dubya, the bad son, was tossing beer cans out of the car window in Texas! And, making bad investments. And alas, eventually, finding Jesus.
SO, IN NOVEMBER THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE WILL HAVE A CHOICE;
THE GOOD SON, OR THE BAD SON?
Now, Americans are not real keen on "Goody-Two-Shoes" types. Just ask Al Gore!
But, John Kerry is no Al Gore! Does that surprise you?
AND, DUBYA'S "BAD SON" PRESIDENCY, AND THE RESULTING GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE IT HAS CAUSED IS....WELL,..........DAMN!
JUST.............TOO MUCH TO TAKE.
These were those prodigal sons of previlege who ran up gambling debts "at the club," and owed their tailors small fortunes for their ever-changing sartorial requirments.
Indeed, while Kerry was being the "good son," and establishing his record of "flip-flops" in the rough and tumble world of our national legislature;
Dubya, the bad son, was tossing beer cans out of the car window in Texas! And, making bad investments. And alas, eventually, finding Jesus.
SO, IN NOVEMBER THE AMERICAN ELECTORATE WILL HAVE A CHOICE;
THE GOOD SON, OR THE BAD SON?
Now, Americans are not real keen on "Goody-Two-Shoes" types. Just ask Al Gore!
But, John Kerry is no Al Gore! Does that surprise you?
AND, DUBYA'S "BAD SON" PRESIDENCY, AND THE RESULTING GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE IT HAS CAUSED IS....WELL,..........DAMN!
JUST.............TOO MUCH TO TAKE.
THE GLOBAL LURCH TO THE LEFT
First Spain, now India........in November, perhaps the US!
THE LURCH TO THE LEFT CONTINUES!
Free trade and Globalism are having a hard time with global
electorates.
Very likely we will see more of this in the future. And, of course,
the election of Kerry will put the cherry on top later this year.
So, does this mean that India is "going socialist?" And, the US is
going protectionist? Not really...........
BUT I SEE A TREND TOWARD MORE "MIXED ECONOMIES" IN THE FUTURE. WHY?
TO BE SURE, MARKETS WORK IN SOME CASES, BUT NOT ALL CASES.
But, a slavish devotion to "free markets" can be devastating to local
economies, (and all economics, like all politics, tends to be in
local in the end.)
THE PROBLEM THAT THE US HAS NOT RECOGNIZED IS THAT MIXED ECONOMIES
ARE NOT ALL BAD.
THEY REALLY CAN WORK, AS THE CHINA MODEL CLEARLY SHOWS.
The US health care system is a total mess. Yet, many conservatives
insist on sticking with the FAILED MARKET MODEL.
Nearly every industrialized nation has a NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PROGRAM
in place. Except the US, which has the most expensive, least fair
system in the world.
There needs to be a RE-THINK about what is government's job, and
what can be done better in the private sector. Is this not obvious
by now?
HEALTH CARE MAY BE A "NEW" GOVERNMENT JOB TODAY. PERHHAPS, IT'S
REALLY A NATIONAL SECURITY, OR NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS ISSUE IN THE
21ST CENTURY?
THE CURRENT POSTAL SERVICE MAY NOT BE A GOVENRMENT JOB ANYMORE,
AS IT CLEARLY WAS IN THE 19TH CENTURY. Additionally, tech and R&D
spending may be private, public or mixed as needed.
Putting the costs of "free market" health care totally on American
Business HAS DESTROYED AMERICAN COMPETITIVENESS. Thus encouraging,
even mandating, "off-shoring" to "mixed economies" that socialize
health care costs.
EVEN AS MOST OTHER NATIONS "SUBSIDIZE" THEIR WORKERS AND THIER
COMPANIES WITH NATIONAL HEALTH PROGRAMS THUS SPREADING THE RISK,
OR "SOCIALIZING" IT.
INSURANCE IS AN AREA THAT NEEDS MORE GOVENRMENT REGULATION, AND
PERHAPS PUBLIC SUBSIDY.
If laws were passed that protect the public with public sector money;
The need for pain and suffering, and non economic compensation, could
be FAIRLY eliminated across the board.
Thus eliminating the evil trail lawyers and the nasty gouging
insurance companies in one fell swoop!
OBVIOUSLY ALL OF THIS STEPS ON A LOT OF SPECIAL INTEREST TOES!
THAT'S WHY THE COMING LURCH TO THE LEFT IS NECESSARY.
THINGS HAVE TO GET REALLY REALLY BAD BEFORE THE PUBLIC WAKES UP TO
THEIR PLIGHT AND VOTES FOR, WELL,....."A NEW DEAL."
IF CURRENT DISMAL TRENDS CONTINUE, THE KERRY PRESIDENCY COULD BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT "SOCIAL POLICY" PRESIDENCY SINCE THE ROOSEVELT REVOLUTION IN THE 1930'S.
THE LURCH LEFT CONTINUES....AND IT IS NOW GLOBAL.
AN ECONOMIC NEW DEAL IS COMING. DEAL WITH IT.
THE LURCH TO THE LEFT CONTINUES!
Free trade and Globalism are having a hard time with global
electorates.
Very likely we will see more of this in the future. And, of course,
the election of Kerry will put the cherry on top later this year.
So, does this mean that India is "going socialist?" And, the US is
going protectionist? Not really...........
BUT I SEE A TREND TOWARD MORE "MIXED ECONOMIES" IN THE FUTURE. WHY?
TO BE SURE, MARKETS WORK IN SOME CASES, BUT NOT ALL CASES.
But, a slavish devotion to "free markets" can be devastating to local
economies, (and all economics, like all politics, tends to be in
local in the end.)
THE PROBLEM THAT THE US HAS NOT RECOGNIZED IS THAT MIXED ECONOMIES
ARE NOT ALL BAD.
THEY REALLY CAN WORK, AS THE CHINA MODEL CLEARLY SHOWS.
The US health care system is a total mess. Yet, many conservatives
insist on sticking with the FAILED MARKET MODEL.
Nearly every industrialized nation has a NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PROGRAM
in place. Except the US, which has the most expensive, least fair
system in the world.
There needs to be a RE-THINK about what is government's job, and
what can be done better in the private sector. Is this not obvious
by now?
HEALTH CARE MAY BE A "NEW" GOVERNMENT JOB TODAY. PERHHAPS, IT'S
REALLY A NATIONAL SECURITY, OR NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS ISSUE IN THE
21ST CENTURY?
THE CURRENT POSTAL SERVICE MAY NOT BE A GOVENRMENT JOB ANYMORE,
AS IT CLEARLY WAS IN THE 19TH CENTURY. Additionally, tech and R&D
spending may be private, public or mixed as needed.
Putting the costs of "free market" health care totally on American
Business HAS DESTROYED AMERICAN COMPETITIVENESS. Thus encouraging,
even mandating, "off-shoring" to "mixed economies" that socialize
health care costs.
EVEN AS MOST OTHER NATIONS "SUBSIDIZE" THEIR WORKERS AND THIER
COMPANIES WITH NATIONAL HEALTH PROGRAMS THUS SPREADING THE RISK,
OR "SOCIALIZING" IT.
INSURANCE IS AN AREA THAT NEEDS MORE GOVENRMENT REGULATION, AND
PERHAPS PUBLIC SUBSIDY.
If laws were passed that protect the public with public sector money;
The need for pain and suffering, and non economic compensation, could
be FAIRLY eliminated across the board.
Thus eliminating the evil trail lawyers and the nasty gouging
insurance companies in one fell swoop!
OBVIOUSLY ALL OF THIS STEPS ON A LOT OF SPECIAL INTEREST TOES!
THAT'S WHY THE COMING LURCH TO THE LEFT IS NECESSARY.
THINGS HAVE TO GET REALLY REALLY BAD BEFORE THE PUBLIC WAKES UP TO
THEIR PLIGHT AND VOTES FOR, WELL,....."A NEW DEAL."
IF CURRENT DISMAL TRENDS CONTINUE, THE KERRY PRESIDENCY COULD BE THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT "SOCIAL POLICY" PRESIDENCY SINCE THE ROOSEVELT REVOLUTION IN THE 1930'S.
THE LURCH LEFT CONTINUES....AND IT IS NOW GLOBAL.
AN ECONOMIC NEW DEAL IS COMING. DEAL WITH IT.
Monday, May 17, 2004
GREENSPAN'S DOG
So, quarter point, half point or nothing at all?
If Mr G asked me about how to raise rates: I'D SAY GO FOR HALF POINT INCREASES!
Why? Well, lets just get it over with as quickly as possible.
If G goes the baby steps route, we will have to listen to the mindless drivel of the pundits for months and months. The insane praddle from Kudlow and Cramer alone would be unnerving.
So, it kinda reminds me of the guy who wanted his dog's tail "bobed," or shortened. He thought it would hurt the dog too much to cut the tail off all at once.
So, he decided to cut the tail off one inch at a time!
Besides the market is already in PANIC MODE! With all of the hedge funds heading for the exits at the same time.
On the issue of derivitives, the QUOTE OF THE DAY is in today's WSJ:
RE: Those banks that are selling credit derivatives to "hedge" their books? One pundit says:
IT'S LIKE BUYING INSURANCE ON THE TITANIC FROM SOMEONE ON THE TITANIC!
LOL!.
I wish I had said that! But wait, I think I just did!
THIS NOTION THAT "SOPHISTICATED" DERIVATIVES WILL "PROTECT US" FROM A CRASH, THIS TIME AROUND; BY, AS MR. G LIKES TO SAY, "SPREADING THE RISKS GLOBALLY;"
SORT OF REMINDS ME OF THE FALLACY OF "PORTFOLIO INSURANCE" THAT WAS COMMON BEFORE THE 1987 CRASH!
YEA, IT'S KINDA LIKE THAT ISN'T IT?
OLD WINE IN NEW BOTTLES.......VERY COMMON ON WALL STREET
If Mr G asked me about how to raise rates: I'D SAY GO FOR HALF POINT INCREASES!
Why? Well, lets just get it over with as quickly as possible.
If G goes the baby steps route, we will have to listen to the mindless drivel of the pundits for months and months. The insane praddle from Kudlow and Cramer alone would be unnerving.
So, it kinda reminds me of the guy who wanted his dog's tail "bobed," or shortened. He thought it would hurt the dog too much to cut the tail off all at once.
So, he decided to cut the tail off one inch at a time!
Besides the market is already in PANIC MODE! With all of the hedge funds heading for the exits at the same time.
On the issue of derivitives, the QUOTE OF THE DAY is in today's WSJ:
RE: Those banks that are selling credit derivatives to "hedge" their books? One pundit says:
IT'S LIKE BUYING INSURANCE ON THE TITANIC FROM SOMEONE ON THE TITANIC!
LOL!.
I wish I had said that! But wait, I think I just did!
THIS NOTION THAT "SOPHISTICATED" DERIVATIVES WILL "PROTECT US" FROM A CRASH, THIS TIME AROUND; BY, AS MR. G LIKES TO SAY, "SPREADING THE RISKS GLOBALLY;"
SORT OF REMINDS ME OF THE FALLACY OF "PORTFOLIO INSURANCE" THAT WAS COMMON BEFORE THE 1987 CRASH!
YEA, IT'S KINDA LIKE THAT ISN'T IT?
OLD WINE IN NEW BOTTLES.......VERY COMMON ON WALL STREET
Sunday, May 16, 2004
1987 REDUX?
It would take some major wishful thinking to deny that the markets
are heading for a 1987 type event.
The bond market has ALREADY priced in four or five quarter point rate
hikes by the Fed! Even though Greenspan has YET to produce His FIRST
rate hike!
So, with the consumer weakening, and with $2+ gas prices becoming a
free VOTE FOR KERRY lawn sign in every neighborhood;
Greenspan is likely to be "conflicted" about ANY rate hike this year.
Anyway;
I'm sticken to my story that Greenspan will never raise rates; but I
do respect Mr Market's considered opinion on this matter.
MY SENSE IS THAT ALL OF THE CONSUMER DATA FOR THIS SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL WILL BE DOWN! AND PERHAPS DOWN BIG.
I ALSO FEEL THAT THE "JOBS MIRACLE" WILL PETER OUT, OR EVEN BE FOUND
TO HAVE BEEN FAKED! Especially when all those "lawn and garden" jobs
are eliminated in the late summer.
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ARE LAYING OFF LIKE MAD.
AND I DOUBT THAT MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS ARE "POURING IN" ANYMORE.
ANY WIND-D0WN IN IRAQ COULD ALSO CAUSE ARE REVERSAL OF FORTUNES IN
HIRING.
Lastly, if the Fed does hike it must do so knowing that MUCH of this
recovery was caused by the PARADOX OF ONE PERCENT RATES!
Give mom and pop a decent bank CD rate, and they'll be out of "Ask
Jeeves" in a New York minute!
And, lest we forget, corporations have been given back their
funny "special currency" because of the one percent solution, and
downsizing;
NOT BECAUSE REAL TOP LINE GROWTH HAS BEEN GOING GANG BUSTERS! ALAS, PRO-FORMA LIVES!
In short, any series of rate hikes this year could quickly derail the
so-called "recovery," and put Greenspan right back into "SAVE THE
BUBBLE" MODE!
Then, foreigners might decide to avoid the US until we get an
administration in Washington that is NOT afraid to read the morning
papers!
BUT, WITH CHINA GROWING A NEW MIDDLE CLASS AT OUR EXPENSE!
AND, THE MIDDLE EAST DESTABILZIED BY DUBYA, RUMMY & THE NEOCONS!
THE WORST OF BOTH WORLD'S LOOMS!
STAGNATION AND INFLATION! STAGFLATION!
SO, IS IT TIME TO RUSH BACK INTO REITS, PREFERREDS, AND CONVERTS AND
ALL THAT STUFF THAT WAS PART OF THE RECENT 800+ "NEW LOWS" LIST?
I DON'T THINK SO!
These "income plays" have a nasty habit of lagging during rallies but
paticipating FULLY during plunges!
INCOME PLAYS ARE ALMOST LIKE GOLD STOCKS! IT TAKES A LOT OF PAIN,
BEFORE YOU SEE ANY GAIN! AND THE WHOLE WORLD IS OUT TO GET YOU WHEN
YOU OWN THESE "DON'T PASS" INVESTMENTS!
I'm going 80% in cash for the rest of this year. And If I "miss
something?" Don't worry.
Wall Street "buying opportunities" are like the Broadway Bus!
There's another one every five minutes!
Postscript: If you don't have a "Broadway Bus" in your area?
Read: State Street, Washington Street, Main Street, Chruch Street, 3d
Street, High Street, whatever.
THE POINT IS, WHAT WILL YOU REALLY MISS IF YOU SELL IN MAY AND GO
AWAY?
THIS YEAR? PROBABLY NOT MUCH! AND THE DOWN SIDE? DON'T EVEN THINK
ABOUT IT!
AHHH....THE ZEN OF CASH! THAT INCREDIBLE FEELING OF "ONENESS!"
A LIFE WITHOUT THE "DUALITY" OF A BROKERAGE COMMISSION STANDING
BETWEEN YOU AND YOUR MONEY!
SWEET DREAMS....ZZZZZZZZ.
AND CAREFREE MORNINGS! (Reading the Sports Section for a change)
are heading for a 1987 type event.
The bond market has ALREADY priced in four or five quarter point rate
hikes by the Fed! Even though Greenspan has YET to produce His FIRST
rate hike!
So, with the consumer weakening, and with $2+ gas prices becoming a
free VOTE FOR KERRY lawn sign in every neighborhood;
Greenspan is likely to be "conflicted" about ANY rate hike this year.
Anyway;
I'm sticken to my story that Greenspan will never raise rates; but I
do respect Mr Market's considered opinion on this matter.
MY SENSE IS THAT ALL OF THE CONSUMER DATA FOR THIS SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL WILL BE DOWN! AND PERHAPS DOWN BIG.
I ALSO FEEL THAT THE "JOBS MIRACLE" WILL PETER OUT, OR EVEN BE FOUND
TO HAVE BEEN FAKED! Especially when all those "lawn and garden" jobs
are eliminated in the late summer.
LOCAL GOVERNMENTS ARE LAYING OFF LIKE MAD.
AND I DOUBT THAT MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS ARE "POURING IN" ANYMORE.
ANY WIND-D0WN IN IRAQ COULD ALSO CAUSE ARE REVERSAL OF FORTUNES IN
HIRING.
Lastly, if the Fed does hike it must do so knowing that MUCH of this
recovery was caused by the PARADOX OF ONE PERCENT RATES!
Give mom and pop a decent bank CD rate, and they'll be out of "Ask
Jeeves" in a New York minute!
And, lest we forget, corporations have been given back their
funny "special currency" because of the one percent solution, and
downsizing;
NOT BECAUSE REAL TOP LINE GROWTH HAS BEEN GOING GANG BUSTERS! ALAS, PRO-FORMA LIVES!
In short, any series of rate hikes this year could quickly derail the
so-called "recovery," and put Greenspan right back into "SAVE THE
BUBBLE" MODE!
Then, foreigners might decide to avoid the US until we get an
administration in Washington that is NOT afraid to read the morning
papers!
BUT, WITH CHINA GROWING A NEW MIDDLE CLASS AT OUR EXPENSE!
AND, THE MIDDLE EAST DESTABILZIED BY DUBYA, RUMMY & THE NEOCONS!
THE WORST OF BOTH WORLD'S LOOMS!
STAGNATION AND INFLATION! STAGFLATION!
SO, IS IT TIME TO RUSH BACK INTO REITS, PREFERREDS, AND CONVERTS AND
ALL THAT STUFF THAT WAS PART OF THE RECENT 800+ "NEW LOWS" LIST?
I DON'T THINK SO!
These "income plays" have a nasty habit of lagging during rallies but
paticipating FULLY during plunges!
INCOME PLAYS ARE ALMOST LIKE GOLD STOCKS! IT TAKES A LOT OF PAIN,
BEFORE YOU SEE ANY GAIN! AND THE WHOLE WORLD IS OUT TO GET YOU WHEN
YOU OWN THESE "DON'T PASS" INVESTMENTS!
I'm going 80% in cash for the rest of this year. And If I "miss
something?" Don't worry.
Wall Street "buying opportunities" are like the Broadway Bus!
There's another one every five minutes!
Postscript: If you don't have a "Broadway Bus" in your area?
Read: State Street, Washington Street, Main Street, Chruch Street, 3d
Street, High Street, whatever.
THE POINT IS, WHAT WILL YOU REALLY MISS IF YOU SELL IN MAY AND GO
AWAY?
THIS YEAR? PROBABLY NOT MUCH! AND THE DOWN SIDE? DON'T EVEN THINK
ABOUT IT!
AHHH....THE ZEN OF CASH! THAT INCREDIBLE FEELING OF "ONENESS!"
A LIFE WITHOUT THE "DUALITY" OF A BROKERAGE COMMISSION STANDING
BETWEEN YOU AND YOUR MONEY!
SWEET DREAMS....ZZZZZZZZ.
AND CAREFREE MORNINGS! (Reading the Sports Section for a change)
Saturday, May 15, 2004
DOOM LOOMS, BUT...............
The utter hopelessness of the situation in Iraq seems completely
mirrored by the utter hopelessness on The Street.
In Iraq, the fighting in the south now seems to be simply killing for
the sake of killing.
Southern Iraq is really AN AMERICAN GAZA CITY now.
The Sharon/Likud-like plan being:
That IF ONLY we can kill enough of them, they'll stop hating/fighting
us!
Well, we all know that won't work.........
And, as to as to those so-called "good Shia?"
Surely they know that once Sadrs army is gone; THEY will be next!
Sistani knows that he will be the "next" bad guy, once the Sadr
militia is gone.
Because, the notion that an Iranian-supported fundamentalist cleric
will somehow be the "salvation" of the bankrupt neocons and Dubya is
just a little bit nuts! Don't ya think?
THE BATTLE IN SOUTHERN IRAQ IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE US
OCCUPATION.
IF ONLY WE COULD JUST KILL A FEW MORE OF THEM,......AN A FEW
MORE,.....AND A FEW MORE......
THEN EVERYTHING WOULD BE OK; THEN THEY WILL STOP FIGHTING US AND HATING US?
Well, good luck.
WE NOW HAVE SHARONIST-LUKUD THINKING RUN AMUCK IN SOUTHERN IRAQ!
................
And, on THE STREET little hope is left.
OIL AND GAS ARE OUT OF CONTROL.
GREENSPAN IS, PERHAPS, GOING TO BE FORCED TO ACT AGAINST HIS BELOVED
BUBBLE.
Still, my hunch is that Greenspan WILL NOT raise rates! NO MATTER
WHAT!
THE FED IS SO COMMITTED TO THE BUBBLE ECONOMY THAT RAISING RATES IS
JUST OUT OF THE QUESTION.
But what about oil? And gas? And, the so-called inflation?
WELL, WE ARE ABOUT TO HAVE AN HISTORIC: "LET THEM EAT CAKE" MOMENT!
BETTER TO HAVE STAGFLATION AND HYPER-INFLATION, THAN TO DESTROY THE
BELOVED BUBBLE ECONOMY!
Greenspan has solved our economic puzzle for BUBBLES AND HIGH STOCK
PRICES; just as Keynes solved his economic puzzle for FULL EMPLOYMENT.
Net-net;
I see a period of STAGFLATION kicking in;
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF "GREAT INFLATION,"
PERHAPS EVEN A HYPER-INFLATION.
IT'S BUBBLE OR NOTHING NOW,..........BUT ALAS, IT HAS BEEN FOR
SOMETIME;
NOW "THE JIG IS UP," AND A LITTLE REALITY IS CREEPING INTO THE
INCREASING DISMAL PICTURE.
POSTSCRIPT: Sorry I can't be more "up-beat," but that's the way it
is.
We are all now simply WAITING FOR KERRY to reverse the bad
policies of Dubya....BUT that's a long way off.
Perhaps in a year or so:
TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH COULD BECOME HEALTH CARE FOR ALL, AND A
RESTORATION OF AMERICAN COMPETITIVENESS.
A GREAT REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH TO THE MIDDLE CLASS, AND AWAY FROM "GLOBAL CAPITALISTS" IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. AND SADDLY, THAT'S GOING TO BE AS HARD NOW, AS IT WAS IN THE DISMAL 1930'S (THE LAST TIME THIS MESS HAPPEN.)
PERHAPS SHARON WILL GIVE UP ON ANNEXING THE WEST BANK; WITH A LITTLE
HELP FROM NEW PRESIDENT KERRY.
AND THEN, A REAL PALESTINIAN STATE COULD BE SET UP---ASAP!
NOT "LATER," INSIDE THE "SHARONIST OCCUPIED TERRITORIES."
BECAUSE, ONLY WHEN SHARON GIVES UP ON HIS WEST BANK BIBICAL FANTASIES;
CAN THE US QUIT MAKING ALL OF ISLAM INTO A FUTURE AMERICAN "WEST BANK!"
PEACE IS POSSIBLE.......AND PROSPERITY TOO.
BUT ONLY IF, THE CURRENT "SPECIAL INTERESTS" GIVE WAY TO SOME "BASIC FAIRNESS" ALL ROUND.
AND, THAT'S THE HARD PART!
BUT, IT'S ALL "DOABLE" IF AND WHEN;
"SANITY BREAKS OUT!"
mirrored by the utter hopelessness on The Street.
In Iraq, the fighting in the south now seems to be simply killing for
the sake of killing.
Southern Iraq is really AN AMERICAN GAZA CITY now.
The Sharon/Likud-like plan being:
That IF ONLY we can kill enough of them, they'll stop hating/fighting
us!
Well, we all know that won't work.........
And, as to as to those so-called "good Shia?"
Surely they know that once Sadrs army is gone; THEY will be next!
Sistani knows that he will be the "next" bad guy, once the Sadr
militia is gone.
Because, the notion that an Iranian-supported fundamentalist cleric
will somehow be the "salvation" of the bankrupt neocons and Dubya is
just a little bit nuts! Don't ya think?
THE BATTLE IN SOUTHERN IRAQ IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END FOR THE US
OCCUPATION.
IF ONLY WE COULD JUST KILL A FEW MORE OF THEM,......AN A FEW
MORE,.....AND A FEW MORE......
THEN EVERYTHING WOULD BE OK; THEN THEY WILL STOP FIGHTING US AND HATING US?
Well, good luck.
WE NOW HAVE SHARONIST-LUKUD THINKING RUN AMUCK IN SOUTHERN IRAQ!
................
And, on THE STREET little hope is left.
OIL AND GAS ARE OUT OF CONTROL.
GREENSPAN IS, PERHAPS, GOING TO BE FORCED TO ACT AGAINST HIS BELOVED
BUBBLE.
Still, my hunch is that Greenspan WILL NOT raise rates! NO MATTER
WHAT!
THE FED IS SO COMMITTED TO THE BUBBLE ECONOMY THAT RAISING RATES IS
JUST OUT OF THE QUESTION.
But what about oil? And gas? And, the so-called inflation?
WELL, WE ARE ABOUT TO HAVE AN HISTORIC: "LET THEM EAT CAKE" MOMENT!
BETTER TO HAVE STAGFLATION AND HYPER-INFLATION, THAN TO DESTROY THE
BELOVED BUBBLE ECONOMY!
Greenspan has solved our economic puzzle for BUBBLES AND HIGH STOCK
PRICES; just as Keynes solved his economic puzzle for FULL EMPLOYMENT.
Net-net;
I see a period of STAGFLATION kicking in;
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF "GREAT INFLATION,"
PERHAPS EVEN A HYPER-INFLATION.
IT'S BUBBLE OR NOTHING NOW,..........BUT ALAS, IT HAS BEEN FOR
SOMETIME;
NOW "THE JIG IS UP," AND A LITTLE REALITY IS CREEPING INTO THE
INCREASING DISMAL PICTURE.
POSTSCRIPT: Sorry I can't be more "up-beat," but that's the way it
is.
We are all now simply WAITING FOR KERRY to reverse the bad
policies of Dubya....BUT that's a long way off.
Perhaps in a year or so:
TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH COULD BECOME HEALTH CARE FOR ALL, AND A
RESTORATION OF AMERICAN COMPETITIVENESS.
A GREAT REDISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH TO THE MIDDLE CLASS, AND AWAY FROM "GLOBAL CAPITALISTS" IS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY. AND SADDLY, THAT'S GOING TO BE AS HARD NOW, AS IT WAS IN THE DISMAL 1930'S (THE LAST TIME THIS MESS HAPPEN.)
PERHAPS SHARON WILL GIVE UP ON ANNEXING THE WEST BANK; WITH A LITTLE
HELP FROM NEW PRESIDENT KERRY.
AND THEN, A REAL PALESTINIAN STATE COULD BE SET UP---ASAP!
NOT "LATER," INSIDE THE "SHARONIST OCCUPIED TERRITORIES."
BECAUSE, ONLY WHEN SHARON GIVES UP ON HIS WEST BANK BIBICAL FANTASIES;
CAN THE US QUIT MAKING ALL OF ISLAM INTO A FUTURE AMERICAN "WEST BANK!"
PEACE IS POSSIBLE.......AND PROSPERITY TOO.
BUT ONLY IF, THE CURRENT "SPECIAL INTERESTS" GIVE WAY TO SOME "BASIC FAIRNESS" ALL ROUND.
AND, THAT'S THE HARD PART!
BUT, IT'S ALL "DOABLE" IF AND WHEN;
"SANITY BREAKS OUT!"
Friday, May 14, 2004
DUBYA'S WATERGATE! IRAQ OUT OF CONTROL!
Well, Dubya and the neo-cons and religious right have been running
things for three and a half years, and this are just spiraling out of
control!
Poor Kerry! He just doesn't know what to say!
It's as if you showed up for a serious debate, and your opponent
walks in drunk, and then pisses himself!
What can you say really.....?
And, this attempt by Rummy and Wolfie to pass off the torture claims
as just a bunch of PFCs "having some fun" WON'T CUT IT!
It's so obviously false that you have to wonder why they are even
bothering to make the argument. Desperation? Perhaps.
My hunch is that once you start looking into the torture and abuse
claims:
THIS WILL BECOME DUBYA'S WATERGATE!!
Further, is all of this going to DISAPPEAR before the elections?
Or, After? No way!
It'll just be getting started really.
And, once the international community and the "new govenrment" in
Iraq get in on the action? Yikes!
I've a suspicion that Rummy and Wolfie will be joining a few top
Pentagon brass at The Hague!
That is really THE issue Kerry should be addressing now!
WILL, PRESIDENT KERRY PARDON RUMMY, WOLFIE, ET AL, IF WAR CRIMES
CHARGES BECOME NECESSARY?
WILL PRESIDENT KERRY BLOCK EXTRADITON OF THE TOP US "OPTIONAL WAR"
PLANNERS TO ANY INTERNATIONAL WAR CRIMES TRIAL?
WILL THE WAR ITSELF BE DEEMED "ILLEGAL" BY THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY?
THE OCCUPATION HAS DEGENERATED INTO SIMPLY KILLING AND DESTROYING FOR
THE SAKE OF WHAT? WHO KNOWS? WHERE ARE THE IRAQI LEADERS?
WILL AMEERICA HAVE TO PAY REPARATIONS TO THE IRAQI PEOPLE FOR THE
DAMAGE DONE, AND THE LIVES LOST DURING THIS "OPTIONAL WAR?"
It is very possible that President Kerry may have to totally
repudiate the Iraq War, and it's sad aftermath, and turn over it's
worst US offenders and planners;
JUST TO SETTLE THINGS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE EAST!
JUST TO GET BACK INTO THE GOOD GRACES OF THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY!
AND, THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR ON THE US BOND AND STOCK
MARKETS, AND THE ECONOMY IN GENERAL COULD BE GRAVE. INDEED ARE GRAVE
EVEN NOW.
WILL PRESIDENT KERRY BE THE "WAR GUILT" PRESIDENT?
BECAUSE, LIKE ONE WISE US GENERAL SAID BEFORE THE WAR:
"TELL ME HOW THIS ENDS........."
I think we are starting to see how this ends.....AND IT'S GOING TO BE
REALLY REALLY UGLY!
PERHAPS, EVEN THE GREATEST TRAGEDY TO BEFALL THE US SINCE THE CIVIL
WAR!
NO VICTORY! AND, NO DEFEAT! THOSE WOULD BE TOLERABLE!
WORSE! FAR WORSE IS LIKELY COMING!
SHAME! GUILT! HUMILIATION! REPARATIONS! WAR CRIMES!
Postscirpt: Well, Wolfie, Perle, Rummy and the other neocons should
have known better than to send working-class Democrats to fight a
Republican War! Wait till the returning troops start talking to the
media! You ain't seen nothing yet..........stay tuned.
things for three and a half years, and this are just spiraling out of
control!
Poor Kerry! He just doesn't know what to say!
It's as if you showed up for a serious debate, and your opponent
walks in drunk, and then pisses himself!
What can you say really.....?
And, this attempt by Rummy and Wolfie to pass off the torture claims
as just a bunch of PFCs "having some fun" WON'T CUT IT!
It's so obviously false that you have to wonder why they are even
bothering to make the argument. Desperation? Perhaps.
My hunch is that once you start looking into the torture and abuse
claims:
THIS WILL BECOME DUBYA'S WATERGATE!!
Further, is all of this going to DISAPPEAR before the elections?
Or, After? No way!
It'll just be getting started really.
And, once the international community and the "new govenrment" in
Iraq get in on the action? Yikes!
I've a suspicion that Rummy and Wolfie will be joining a few top
Pentagon brass at The Hague!
That is really THE issue Kerry should be addressing now!
WILL, PRESIDENT KERRY PARDON RUMMY, WOLFIE, ET AL, IF WAR CRIMES
CHARGES BECOME NECESSARY?
WILL PRESIDENT KERRY BLOCK EXTRADITON OF THE TOP US "OPTIONAL WAR"
PLANNERS TO ANY INTERNATIONAL WAR CRIMES TRIAL?
WILL THE WAR ITSELF BE DEEMED "ILLEGAL" BY THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY?
THE OCCUPATION HAS DEGENERATED INTO SIMPLY KILLING AND DESTROYING FOR
THE SAKE OF WHAT? WHO KNOWS? WHERE ARE THE IRAQI LEADERS?
WILL AMEERICA HAVE TO PAY REPARATIONS TO THE IRAQI PEOPLE FOR THE
DAMAGE DONE, AND THE LIVES LOST DURING THIS "OPTIONAL WAR?"
It is very possible that President Kerry may have to totally
repudiate the Iraq War, and it's sad aftermath, and turn over it's
worst US offenders and planners;
JUST TO SETTLE THINGS DOWN IN THE MIDDLE EAST!
JUST TO GET BACK INTO THE GOOD GRACES OF THE GLOBAL COMMUNITY!
AND, THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE WAR ON THE US BOND AND STOCK
MARKETS, AND THE ECONOMY IN GENERAL COULD BE GRAVE. INDEED ARE GRAVE
EVEN NOW.
WILL PRESIDENT KERRY BE THE "WAR GUILT" PRESIDENT?
BECAUSE, LIKE ONE WISE US GENERAL SAID BEFORE THE WAR:
"TELL ME HOW THIS ENDS........."
I think we are starting to see how this ends.....AND IT'S GOING TO BE
REALLY REALLY UGLY!
PERHAPS, EVEN THE GREATEST TRAGEDY TO BEFALL THE US SINCE THE CIVIL
WAR!
NO VICTORY! AND, NO DEFEAT! THOSE WOULD BE TOLERABLE!
WORSE! FAR WORSE IS LIKELY COMING!
SHAME! GUILT! HUMILIATION! REPARATIONS! WAR CRIMES!
Postscirpt: Well, Wolfie, Perle, Rummy and the other neocons should
have known better than to send working-class Democrats to fight a
Republican War! Wait till the returning troops start talking to the
media! You ain't seen nothing yet..........stay tuned.
Wednesday, May 12, 2004
TULIP TIME!!
Are you depressed by recent events? Well, who wouldn't be!
Alas, Dubya and Co seem to be in some crazy downward Sprial of
Doom. And, it gets "curiouser" every the day.
Alas, Kerry and Co are acting like good trial lawyers; and just
keeping their mouths shut, while the "opposition" self-destructs!
Just like I suggested they do.
BUT STILL, HAVE YOU NOTICED THE INCREDIBLE DISPLAY OF TULIPS OUTSIDE?
No, I'm not being sarcastic; I don't mean "the bubble."
I mean REAL TULIPS! THE SPRING FLOWERS......! It's really amazing!
Early May is a wonderful time to just walk around,
......and watch nature start the new year.
It's ALL very transient you know.......
Just like your stock market "winnings"...
Know that, and you'll know everything you need to know....
Alas, Dubya and Co seem to be in some crazy downward Sprial of
Doom. And, it gets "curiouser" every the day.
Alas, Kerry and Co are acting like good trial lawyers; and just
keeping their mouths shut, while the "opposition" self-destructs!
Just like I suggested they do.
BUT STILL, HAVE YOU NOTICED THE INCREDIBLE DISPLAY OF TULIPS OUTSIDE?
No, I'm not being sarcastic; I don't mean "the bubble."
I mean REAL TULIPS! THE SPRING FLOWERS......! It's really amazing!
Early May is a wonderful time to just walk around,
......and watch nature start the new year.
It's ALL very transient you know.......
Just like your stock market "winnings"...
Know that, and you'll know everything you need to know....
DISEMBOWLED!!
DISEMBOWLED!! STRANGLED!! DRAWN AND QUARTERED!! BEHEADED!!
Relax....
I'm desribeing my portfolio!
Anyone planning an early retirement from stocks had better reconsider.
The LATE damage to portfolios and 401ks has been PROFOUND!
And alas, much of it WAS AND IS under the radar screen of the major averages!
IF YOU HAD BONDS, OR ANY "INCOME INSTRUMENTS" IN YOUR PORTFOLIO, YOU HAVE BEEN DECIMATED! YEAH, DOWN 10 TO 20 PERCENT, OR MORE, DEPENDING.
FRANKLY, INCOME DOESN'T INTEREST ME ANYMORE.....CASH DOES!
Despite the P.R. rally at the end of trade today. This market is heading down! AND DOWN BIG!
The trade deficit was devastating. And, the situation in Iraq and the middle east has trouble topping it's prior HORROR DE JURE!
GO TO CASH AND NOTHING BUT CASH! AND DO IT NOW!
DAYTRADE THE DAILY STORY STOCK, IF YOU DARE!
BUT, FRANKLY I THINK THAT'S ALWAYS A SUCKERS BET.
DISEMBOWLED! STRANGLED! DRAWN AND QUARTER! HUNG! MAIMED!
THE BOND MARKET HAS GIVEN THE STOCK MARKET A LETHAL INJECTION!
THE TEN YEAR BOND IS GOING TO 7%! AND SOON!
Relax....
I'm desribeing my portfolio!
Anyone planning an early retirement from stocks had better reconsider.
The LATE damage to portfolios and 401ks has been PROFOUND!
And alas, much of it WAS AND IS under the radar screen of the major averages!
IF YOU HAD BONDS, OR ANY "INCOME INSTRUMENTS" IN YOUR PORTFOLIO, YOU HAVE BEEN DECIMATED! YEAH, DOWN 10 TO 20 PERCENT, OR MORE, DEPENDING.
FRANKLY, INCOME DOESN'T INTEREST ME ANYMORE.....CASH DOES!
Despite the P.R. rally at the end of trade today. This market is heading down! AND DOWN BIG!
The trade deficit was devastating. And, the situation in Iraq and the middle east has trouble topping it's prior HORROR DE JURE!
GO TO CASH AND NOTHING BUT CASH! AND DO IT NOW!
DAYTRADE THE DAILY STORY STOCK, IF YOU DARE!
BUT, FRANKLY I THINK THAT'S ALWAYS A SUCKERS BET.
DISEMBOWLED! STRANGLED! DRAWN AND QUARTER! HUNG! MAIMED!
THE BOND MARKET HAS GIVEN THE STOCK MARKET A LETHAL INJECTION!
THE TEN YEAR BOND IS GOING TO 7%! AND SOON!
DISEMBOWLED!!
DISEMBOWLED!! STRANGLED!! DRAWN AND QUARTERED!! BEHEADED!!
Relax....
I'm desribeing my portfolio!
Anyone planning an early retirement from stocks had better reconsider.
The LATE damage to portfolios and 401ks has been PROFOUND!
And alas, much of it WAS AND IS under the radar screen of the major averages!
IF YOU HAD BONDS, OR ANY "INCOME INSTRUMENTS" IN YOUR PORTFOLIO, YOU HAVE BEEN DECIMATED! YEAH, DOWN 10 TO 20 PERCENT, OR MORE, DEPENDING.
FRANKLY, INCOME DOESN'T INTEREST ME ANYMORE.....CASH DOES!
Despite the P.R. rally at the end of trade today. This market is heading down! AND DOWN BIG!
The trade deficit was devastating. And, the situation in Iraq and the middle east has trouble topping it's prior HORROR DE JURE!
GO TO CASH AND NOTHING BUT CASH! AND DO IT NOW!
DAYTRADE THE DAILY STORY STOCK, IF YOU DARE!
BUT, FRANKLY I THINK THAT'S ALWAYS A SUCKERS BET.
DISEMBOWLED! STRANGLED! DRAWN AND QUARTER! HUNG! MAIMED!
THE BOND MARKET HAS GIVEN THE STOCK MARKET A LETHAL INJECTION!
THE TEN YEAR BOND IS GOING TO 7%! AND SOON!
Relax....
I'm desribeing my portfolio!
Anyone planning an early retirement from stocks had better reconsider.
The LATE damage to portfolios and 401ks has been PROFOUND!
And alas, much of it WAS AND IS under the radar screen of the major averages!
IF YOU HAD BONDS, OR ANY "INCOME INSTRUMENTS" IN YOUR PORTFOLIO, YOU HAVE BEEN DECIMATED! YEAH, DOWN 10 TO 20 PERCENT, OR MORE, DEPENDING.
FRANKLY, INCOME DOESN'T INTEREST ME ANYMORE.....CASH DOES!
Despite the P.R. rally at the end of trade today. This market is heading down! AND DOWN BIG!
The trade deficit was devastating. And, the situation in Iraq and the middle east has trouble topping it's prior HORROR DE JURE!
GO TO CASH AND NOTHING BUT CASH! AND DO IT NOW!
DAYTRADE THE DAILY STORY STOCK, IF YOU DARE!
BUT, FRANKLY I THINK THAT'S ALWAYS A SUCKERS BET.
DISEMBOWLED! STRANGLED! DRAWN AND QUARTER! HUNG! MAIMED!
THE BOND MARKET HAS GIVEN THE STOCK MARKET A LETHAL INJECTION!
THE TEN YEAR BOND IS GOING TO 7%! AND SOON!
Monday, May 10, 2004
SELL EVERYTHING NOW!
The catastrophic plunge continues! If anything the weekend hype about war crimes only diverted attention from the really serious problems in the market.
THE PLUNGE IN CLOSED END FUNDS WAS TRULY HISTORIC! CLOSED END FUNDS ARE ALL IN THE NEW LOWS LIST; AND MANY ARE SELLING AT HUGE DISCOUNTS AND HUGE YEILDS! THEY MIGHT BE OVER-SOLD NOW! AND THAT'S A GOOD TIME TO "SELL THE RALLY!"
EVERYTHING SHOULD BE SOLD. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF GOLD AND OIL!
The notion that the DOLLAR IS STRONGER ON PLUNGING BONDS is just looney!
HOW CAN THE DOLLAR BE TRULY STRONG, WHEN EVERYONE IS DUMPING THE US BOND? IT'S NUTS......
Of course, what's happening is the BOND SELLERS ARE "BUYING" DOLLARS, JUST TO GET OUT OF THEIR BOND POSITIONS. AND THE MOMO GUYS ARE SELLING GOLD TO PLAY THE "OTHER SIDE" OF THE GOLD/DOLLAR TRADE.
BUT THAT'S ALL TEMPORARY.
BELIEVE THIS: IF US STOCKS AND US BONDS CRASH, THE DOLLAR WILL NOT BE STRONG! AND IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT "HIGHER RATES" WILL HELP! THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE US ECONOMY ARE SO OVER-LOADED WITH DEBT AND SPECULATION THAT NOTHING CAN SAVE THE DOLLAR LONGER TERM!
STILL, LET THE XAU CRASH! HOW LOW CAN IT GO? PLUNGE BABY PLUNGE!
A MAJOR ONCE IN A GENERATION BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN GOLD, SILVER AND METALS STOCKS IS NEAR!!
LIKE ROTHCHILD SAID: BUY WHEN THERE IS BLOOD IN THE STREETS!
THINGS ARE BAD NOW! BUT THEY ARE GOING TO GET WORSE! MUCH WORSE! DOW 7000 SEEMS REAL NOW...............
HOARD CASH! GET TO KNOW THE "ZEN OF CASH!" CASH WILL BUY A WHOLE LOT OF "CHEAP STUFF" BEFORE THIS PLUNGE IS OVER.
THE PLUNGE IN CLOSED END FUNDS WAS TRULY HISTORIC! CLOSED END FUNDS ARE ALL IN THE NEW LOWS LIST; AND MANY ARE SELLING AT HUGE DISCOUNTS AND HUGE YEILDS! THEY MIGHT BE OVER-SOLD NOW! AND THAT'S A GOOD TIME TO "SELL THE RALLY!"
EVERYTHING SHOULD BE SOLD. WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF GOLD AND OIL!
The notion that the DOLLAR IS STRONGER ON PLUNGING BONDS is just looney!
HOW CAN THE DOLLAR BE TRULY STRONG, WHEN EVERYONE IS DUMPING THE US BOND? IT'S NUTS......
Of course, what's happening is the BOND SELLERS ARE "BUYING" DOLLARS, JUST TO GET OUT OF THEIR BOND POSITIONS. AND THE MOMO GUYS ARE SELLING GOLD TO PLAY THE "OTHER SIDE" OF THE GOLD/DOLLAR TRADE.
BUT THAT'S ALL TEMPORARY.
BELIEVE THIS: IF US STOCKS AND US BONDS CRASH, THE DOLLAR WILL NOT BE STRONG! AND IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT "HIGHER RATES" WILL HELP! THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE US ECONOMY ARE SO OVER-LOADED WITH DEBT AND SPECULATION THAT NOTHING CAN SAVE THE DOLLAR LONGER TERM!
STILL, LET THE XAU CRASH! HOW LOW CAN IT GO? PLUNGE BABY PLUNGE!
A MAJOR ONCE IN A GENERATION BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN GOLD, SILVER AND METALS STOCKS IS NEAR!!
LIKE ROTHCHILD SAID: BUY WHEN THERE IS BLOOD IN THE STREETS!
THINGS ARE BAD NOW! BUT THEY ARE GOING TO GET WORSE! MUCH WORSE! DOW 7000 SEEMS REAL NOW...............
HOARD CASH! GET TO KNOW THE "ZEN OF CASH!" CASH WILL BUY A WHOLE LOT OF "CHEAP STUFF" BEFORE THIS PLUNGE IS OVER.
Sunday, May 9, 2004
BLACK MONDAY? ......WHERE'S WOLFIE!!
Amid the war crimes hype of the chattering classes this weekend, few
mentioned the horrific BOND CRASH of Friday.
Not be mention the generalized collapse of prices for income, NAZZ
small caps, and nearly everything else. The new lows list should be
interesting on Monday!
But consider:
Could we be in for a BLACK MONDAY?
Or, will the market masters grant us a little rally, just to keep
people interested. Despite the BOND CRASH ON FRIDAY!
HOW LONG WILL THE CENTRAL BANKS AND HEDGE FUNDS PUT UP WITH THESE
MASSIVE LOSSES?
Well, my hunch is that we are getting very close to a serious market
break!
The 10 year bond is headed up BIG TIME, probably to 7%, before the
end of this year.
THAT MEANS THAT THE DOW, WHICH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING OF LATE, COULD BE
GOING BACK TO PRE-RALLY LEVELS.
And there is MASSIVE market manipulation going on. Gold is plunging
wildly on the "inflation news." And, oil is only up, up and up!
HOW MUCH DAMAGE WAS DONE TO CENTRAL BANKS AND HEDGE FUNDS BY THE BIG
BOND PLUNGE ON FRIDAY?
WELL, AS EXPECTED, THE USUAL SUSPECTS WILL PROBABLY SAY: WHAT BOND
CRASH!
BUT IF THE MARKET MASTERS GIVE US A RALLY? I'LL BE SELLING INTO IT
LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW!
AND, IF THEY DON'T?
COULD BLACK MONDAY LOOM? STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPEN.......
Yet;
The market masters also like to have little "distribution days" after
these big plunges.
Here, the market will go nowhere fast. Basically, plus or minus 10
points for the day. I do not see these distribution days as a
positive. They are merely, a set up for further declines, after the
market masters' "inventory" has been bought up, by the "suckers!"
SELL ALL RALLIES!! 100% CASH IS THE WAY TO GO!!
(Or, perhaps just a little bit of gold, oil and gas held ON SPEC!)
Postscript: Re: Rummy's profuse apologia on Friday?
Does "worse to come" mean that the Israeli Intelligence Forces were
ALSO INVOLVED in the Iraq Horrors? Hmmmm......?
Wouldn't that just "take the cake!" I mean the Israeli's have
the "Arabic speakers," AND THE "EXPERIENCE" that the US lacks.
Furthermore, ask yourself, WHERE'S WOLFIE LATELY? The cat must have HIS tongue! Ya think?
Very strange, very strange indeed.........more later. Much more!
mentioned the horrific BOND CRASH of Friday.
Not be mention the generalized collapse of prices for income, NAZZ
small caps, and nearly everything else. The new lows list should be
interesting on Monday!
But consider:
Could we be in for a BLACK MONDAY?
Or, will the market masters grant us a little rally, just to keep
people interested. Despite the BOND CRASH ON FRIDAY!
HOW LONG WILL THE CENTRAL BANKS AND HEDGE FUNDS PUT UP WITH THESE
MASSIVE LOSSES?
Well, my hunch is that we are getting very close to a serious market
break!
The 10 year bond is headed up BIG TIME, probably to 7%, before the
end of this year.
THAT MEANS THAT THE DOW, WHICH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING OF LATE, COULD BE
GOING BACK TO PRE-RALLY LEVELS.
And there is MASSIVE market manipulation going on. Gold is plunging
wildly on the "inflation news." And, oil is only up, up and up!
HOW MUCH DAMAGE WAS DONE TO CENTRAL BANKS AND HEDGE FUNDS BY THE BIG
BOND PLUNGE ON FRIDAY?
WELL, AS EXPECTED, THE USUAL SUSPECTS WILL PROBABLY SAY: WHAT BOND
CRASH!
BUT IF THE MARKET MASTERS GIVE US A RALLY? I'LL BE SELLING INTO IT
LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW!
AND, IF THEY DON'T?
COULD BLACK MONDAY LOOM? STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPEN.......
Yet;
The market masters also like to have little "distribution days" after
these big plunges.
Here, the market will go nowhere fast. Basically, plus or minus 10
points for the day. I do not see these distribution days as a
positive. They are merely, a set up for further declines, after the
market masters' "inventory" has been bought up, by the "suckers!"
SELL ALL RALLIES!! 100% CASH IS THE WAY TO GO!!
(Or, perhaps just a little bit of gold, oil and gas held ON SPEC!)
Postscript: Re: Rummy's profuse apologia on Friday?
Does "worse to come" mean that the Israeli Intelligence Forces were
ALSO INVOLVED in the Iraq Horrors? Hmmmm......?
Wouldn't that just "take the cake!" I mean the Israeli's have
the "Arabic speakers," AND THE "EXPERIENCE" that the US lacks.
Furthermore, ask yourself, WHERE'S WOLFIE LATELY? The cat must have HIS tongue! Ya think?
Very strange, very strange indeed.........more later. Much more!
Saturday, May 8, 2004
HERE'S YOUR JOBS REPORT! READ IT AND WEEP!
The link below has the JOBS MIRACLE that "changed everything!"
Read it carefully!
Why so many new hires in "employment services?" What the Hell is that!
And, all that SEASONAL "lawn and garden" hiring? Wassup there?
There are some serious "smell test" issues in this report.
A REPORT THAT CRASHED A TRILLION DOLLARS FROM THE BOND MARKETS IN ONE DAY!
Perhaps, even more than those "lawn and garden" SEASONAL workers will EARN all year!
READ IT AN WONDER! CLICK LINK BELOW:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Read it carefully!
Why so many new hires in "employment services?" What the Hell is that!
And, all that SEASONAL "lawn and garden" hiring? Wassup there?
There are some serious "smell test" issues in this report.
A REPORT THAT CRASHED A TRILLION DOLLARS FROM THE BOND MARKETS IN ONE DAY!
Perhaps, even more than those "lawn and garden" SEASONAL workers will EARN all year!
READ IT AN WONDER! CLICK LINK BELOW:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
TECH CRASH LOOMS!
This notion that the Techs can withstand the looming BOND CRASH is just nuts!
The only reason people are speculating in tech is because of the low rates!
THE LOW RATES ARE GONE!
Muni Funds are paying 8% Granny! TAX FREE! You don't have to plunge in techland anymore!
If anything the techs will be MORE damaged by high rates than the blue chips! Since when are high rates good for small companies?
It is true that under a BUBBLE MENTALITY the techs didn't have to worry about profits and margins or even income; simply a "story" would do. But, in the new INFLATIONARY environment, with A CRASHING BOND MARKET!
THE TECHS WILL NOT SURVIVE!
A TECH CRASH LOOMS!
POSTSCRIPT:
Alas, Google's IPO could be the shortest "liquidity event" in financial history. Perhaps, measured in techy nanoseconds!
The only reason people are speculating in tech is because of the low rates!
THE LOW RATES ARE GONE!
Muni Funds are paying 8% Granny! TAX FREE! You don't have to plunge in techland anymore!
If anything the techs will be MORE damaged by high rates than the blue chips! Since when are high rates good for small companies?
It is true that under a BUBBLE MENTALITY the techs didn't have to worry about profits and margins or even income; simply a "story" would do. But, in the new INFLATIONARY environment, with A CRASHING BOND MARKET!
THE TECHS WILL NOT SURVIVE!
A TECH CRASH LOOMS!
POSTSCRIPT:
Alas, Google's IPO could be the shortest "liquidity event" in financial history. Perhaps, measured in techy nanoseconds!
SELL ALL RALLIES!! THE JOY OF CASH!
THE 10 YEAR BOND IS GOING TO 7%!! BE WARNED!!
SELL ALL RALLIES!!
AND, GET TO KNOW THE "JOY OF CASH" FOR THE REST OF 2004.
The terrific collapse of the bond market and indeed all income
instruments has been swift.
Greenspan lied! The "considerable period" was about a month! And,
anyone who relies on Fed "patience" is on the way
to the poor house.
Curiously, it's not really about the "jobs numbers," which are
probably FAKES!
It's really about the dollar and oil! Or, as I would call it the
dollar/oil! The two are inseperable really.
How FAKE was the jobs number? Well, jobs were the "sine quo non" for
a long over due rate hike. And, Mr G had to
stop the Carry Trade, and the commodities bubbles somehow. ASAP.
But, "his hands were tied" by punk jobs, right?
ENTER THE JOBS MIRACLE! BETTER YET, THE "GOOD JOBS MIRACLE!"
Consider:
Last month I complained that the jobs were suspiciously "spread out"
too evenly in all parts of the economy.
Well, this month they "corrected" that mistake; and jobs are
CONCENTRATED in "BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL
SERVICES!"
YES SIREE! NO RESTURANT AND BAR WORKERS IN DUBYA'S GOOD OLE USA!
NO BURGER FLIPPERS IN DUBYA'S RECOVERY! Just high paid BUSINESS AND
PROFESSIONAL JOBS!
So, wassup?
Clearly, the Republican cabal at the Fed/White House know that the
KERRY REVOLUTION will be the end of
business-centric finance as we have know it! Even Clinton only "felt
our pain," but did nothing about it. Deferring instead
to the Bubble-Masters at the Fed.
SO, WHILE DUBYA NEEDS A "GOOD JOBS MIRACLE."
GREENSPAN NEEDS TO RAISE RATES TO BOOST THE DOLLAR, AND STOP THE OIL
INFLATION. HENCE THE
CURRENT SITUATION.
THE MACRO ECONOMICS ALL SHOW A US ECONOMY IN EXTREMIS.
HOW CAN YOU HAVE A BOOM WHEN YOU NEVER REALLY HAD A BUST, EXCEPT IN
THE DOTCOM BUBBLE?
(See my posting Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! below, for more fake aspects of
this "recovery.")
BOTTOM LINE?
IT'S NOT ABOUT JOBS! FAKE OR REAL!
IT'S ABOUT OIL AND THE DOLLAR!
(Look how strange gold is acting. If inflation is real, shouldn't
gold be up? Instead gold is plunging to protect the dollar
from the bond crash! Bond sellers are surely "buying dollars" in a
panic, but the dollar shortage will not last. At some
point the "sick dollars" that caused the bond crash will also be the
"sick dollars" that buy gold! Or oil!)
NET-NET?
SELL ALL RALLIES!! GET TO KNOW THE ZEN-LIKE JOY OF CASH!!
Postscript: It will be interesting to see if the bond market rallies on Monday. There is a notion that big sell offs need to
be "corrected up." But, I'm not so sure this time. This is a very, very sick monetary situation; and the BOND CRASH
may continue unabated on Monday!! With TOTAL PANIC now in themarkets, income investors might get the "Fallujha
Treatment." NO MERCY FOR THE EVIL ONES! ANYWAY: I'M SELLING ANY AND ALL RALLIES EVEN UNTO 100%
CASH!
SELL ALL RALLIES!!
AND, GET TO KNOW THE "JOY OF CASH" FOR THE REST OF 2004.
The terrific collapse of the bond market and indeed all income
instruments has been swift.
Greenspan lied! The "considerable period" was about a month! And,
anyone who relies on Fed "patience" is on the way
to the poor house.
Curiously, it's not really about the "jobs numbers," which are
probably FAKES!
It's really about the dollar and oil! Or, as I would call it the
dollar/oil! The two are inseperable really.
How FAKE was the jobs number? Well, jobs were the "sine quo non" for
a long over due rate hike. And, Mr G had to
stop the Carry Trade, and the commodities bubbles somehow. ASAP.
But, "his hands were tied" by punk jobs, right?
ENTER THE JOBS MIRACLE! BETTER YET, THE "GOOD JOBS MIRACLE!"
Consider:
Last month I complained that the jobs were suspiciously "spread out"
too evenly in all parts of the economy.
Well, this month they "corrected" that mistake; and jobs are
CONCENTRATED in "BUSINESS AND PROFESSIONAL
SERVICES!"
YES SIREE! NO RESTURANT AND BAR WORKERS IN DUBYA'S GOOD OLE USA!
NO BURGER FLIPPERS IN DUBYA'S RECOVERY! Just high paid BUSINESS AND
PROFESSIONAL JOBS!
So, wassup?
Clearly, the Republican cabal at the Fed/White House know that the
KERRY REVOLUTION will be the end of
business-centric finance as we have know it! Even Clinton only "felt
our pain," but did nothing about it. Deferring instead
to the Bubble-Masters at the Fed.
SO, WHILE DUBYA NEEDS A "GOOD JOBS MIRACLE."
GREENSPAN NEEDS TO RAISE RATES TO BOOST THE DOLLAR, AND STOP THE OIL
INFLATION. HENCE THE
CURRENT SITUATION.
THE MACRO ECONOMICS ALL SHOW A US ECONOMY IN EXTREMIS.
HOW CAN YOU HAVE A BOOM WHEN YOU NEVER REALLY HAD A BUST, EXCEPT IN
THE DOTCOM BUBBLE?
(See my posting Jobs! Jobs! Jobs! below, for more fake aspects of
this "recovery.")
BOTTOM LINE?
IT'S NOT ABOUT JOBS! FAKE OR REAL!
IT'S ABOUT OIL AND THE DOLLAR!
(Look how strange gold is acting. If inflation is real, shouldn't
gold be up? Instead gold is plunging to protect the dollar
from the bond crash! Bond sellers are surely "buying dollars" in a
panic, but the dollar shortage will not last. At some
point the "sick dollars" that caused the bond crash will also be the
"sick dollars" that buy gold! Or oil!)
NET-NET?
SELL ALL RALLIES!! GET TO KNOW THE ZEN-LIKE JOY OF CASH!!
Postscript: It will be interesting to see if the bond market rallies on Monday. There is a notion that big sell offs need to
be "corrected up." But, I'm not so sure this time. This is a very, very sick monetary situation; and the BOND CRASH
may continue unabated on Monday!! With TOTAL PANIC now in themarkets, income investors might get the "Fallujha
Treatment." NO MERCY FOR THE EVIL ONES! ANYWAY: I'M SELLING ANY AND ALL RALLIES EVEN UNTO 100%
CASH!
Friday, May 7, 2004
TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE
HERE'S A REPOST OF THE 3d POSTING I MADE TO THIS BOARD BACK IN 1999!
FYI
IS INFLATION INEVITABLE?
Is a return of inflation, or worse stagflation,
inevitable?
I say yes!
Here's why:
Contrary to popular oninion, our economy has been experiencing a
violent run-away inflation. The problem is that it has been
confined almost entirely to the stock market.
Furthermore,the Federal Reserve has been furiously printing huge
amounts of money to keep this financial asset inflation
going.
But, as the financial economy has soared like a
rocket, the real economy, best exemplified by commodity
prices, has sunk like a stone.
So, here's the problem:
At some point, the corporate economy is going to reach asaturation
point of too much capacity and too little pricing
power, resulting in declining profits.
Then the flow of money out of ridiculously over-priced defensive,
"nifty-fifty" stocks and into ridiculously under-priced
commodities will begin.
Amazingly, the public will perceivethis shift as a rise in prices in
the real economy at the very moment when business activity seems to be
slowing down, in other words, stagflation.
Then, the bond market viglilantes will punish this rise in real
economy prices by raising interest rates making the stock
market's decline even worse.
This explains why, forexample, the stock market mania in the 1960's
gave way to the stagflation decade of the 1970's.
Commodities,like oil, effectively soak up the money that was
originally printed to support the stock market bubble.
In effect, stagflation is how we "do" depressions in the
post gold standard world of paper money economies.
FYI
IS INFLATION INEVITABLE?
Is a return of inflation, or worse stagflation,
inevitable?
I say yes!
Here's why:
Contrary to popular oninion, our economy has been experiencing a
violent run-away inflation. The problem is that it has been
confined almost entirely to the stock market.
Furthermore,the Federal Reserve has been furiously printing huge
amounts of money to keep this financial asset inflation
going.
But, as the financial economy has soared like a
rocket, the real economy, best exemplified by commodity
prices, has sunk like a stone.
So, here's the problem:
At some point, the corporate economy is going to reach asaturation
point of too much capacity and too little pricing
power, resulting in declining profits.
Then the flow of money out of ridiculously over-priced defensive,
"nifty-fifty" stocks and into ridiculously under-priced
commodities will begin.
Amazingly, the public will perceivethis shift as a rise in prices in
the real economy at the very moment when business activity seems to be
slowing down, in other words, stagflation.
Then, the bond market viglilantes will punish this rise in real
economy prices by raising interest rates making the stock
market's decline even worse.
This explains why, forexample, the stock market mania in the 1960's
gave way to the stagflation decade of the 1970's.
Commodities,like oil, effectively soak up the money that was
originally printed to support the stock market bubble.
In effect, stagflation is how we "do" depressions in the
post gold standard world of paper money economies.
REFLATION TRADE IS OVER! NOW STAGFLATION TRADE STARTS!
The REFLATION TRADE is over!
Welcome to THE STAGFLATION TRADE!
The bond collapse is sweeping the street today. And, everything is
going down big. It seems that no yield instrument is safe now. What
is a "fair yield?" 8% 9% 10% WHO KNOWS!
BUT BEST NOT TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE!
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE 10 YEAR BOND IS HEADING TO 7%.
I WILL NOT EVEN LOOK AT PUTTING NEW MONEY INTO THIS MARKET UNTIL THE
10 YEAR BOND IS AT OR ABOVE 7%, AND SOME STABILIZATION OCCURS.
I WILL BE SELLING ANY RALLIES UNTIL I'M 100% IN CASH!
I WILL HOLD GOLD AND OIL AND GAS, UNTIL THE PLUNGE STOPS.
Clearly, the Jobs Number was just OK, but the consequences are a sea
change in the markets.
GREENSPAN'S HYPER-LIQUIDITY EXPERIMENT IS COMING TO IT'S DISASTEROUS
END.
OIL AT $40! AND IT AIN'T OVER YET!
THE DESPERATE SELLING OF GOLD BY THE CENTRAL BANK SHILLS WILL
CONTINUE, AND I'LL BE BUYING IN THE XAU WHEN THE TIME COMES. NOT
NOW, NOT YET.
THE RE-FI BOOM IS OF COURSE OVER! AND A DEFLATION IN HOUSING WILL BE
THE BIG STORY FOR THIS SUMMER.
NET-NET I'LL BE ASKING MYSELF, WHAT WOULD BE THE BEST STAGFLATION
PLAY GOING INTO 2005?
Of course the geo-political situation has a life of it's own now.
AND I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A "1929 TYPE EVENT" SOMETIME THIS YEAR
PERHAPS AROUND AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER.
DOW 10,000 FOREVER? It could be!
But first we will revisit Dow 7000! And, perhaps even Dow 6000!
POOR LEADERSHIP AT THE FED AND IN KONGRESS AND THE WHITE HOUSE WILL
TAKE IT'S GRIM TOLL BEFORE THIS DISMAL YEAR IS OUT!
Welcome to THE STAGFLATION TRADE!
The bond collapse is sweeping the street today. And, everything is
going down big. It seems that no yield instrument is safe now. What
is a "fair yield?" 8% 9% 10% WHO KNOWS!
BUT BEST NOT TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE!
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE 10 YEAR BOND IS HEADING TO 7%.
I WILL NOT EVEN LOOK AT PUTTING NEW MONEY INTO THIS MARKET UNTIL THE
10 YEAR BOND IS AT OR ABOVE 7%, AND SOME STABILIZATION OCCURS.
I WILL BE SELLING ANY RALLIES UNTIL I'M 100% IN CASH!
I WILL HOLD GOLD AND OIL AND GAS, UNTIL THE PLUNGE STOPS.
Clearly, the Jobs Number was just OK, but the consequences are a sea
change in the markets.
GREENSPAN'S HYPER-LIQUIDITY EXPERIMENT IS COMING TO IT'S DISASTEROUS
END.
OIL AT $40! AND IT AIN'T OVER YET!
THE DESPERATE SELLING OF GOLD BY THE CENTRAL BANK SHILLS WILL
CONTINUE, AND I'LL BE BUYING IN THE XAU WHEN THE TIME COMES. NOT
NOW, NOT YET.
THE RE-FI BOOM IS OF COURSE OVER! AND A DEFLATION IN HOUSING WILL BE
THE BIG STORY FOR THIS SUMMER.
NET-NET I'LL BE ASKING MYSELF, WHAT WOULD BE THE BEST STAGFLATION
PLAY GOING INTO 2005?
Of course the geo-political situation has a life of it's own now.
AND I WOULD NOT RULE OUT A "1929 TYPE EVENT" SOMETIME THIS YEAR
PERHAPS AROUND AUGUST OR SEPTEMBER.
DOW 10,000 FOREVER? It could be!
But first we will revisit Dow 7000! And, perhaps even Dow 6000!
POOR LEADERSHIP AT THE FED AND IN KONGRESS AND THE WHITE HOUSE WILL
TAKE IT'S GRIM TOLL BEFORE THIS DISMAL YEAR IS OUT!
Thursday, May 6, 2004
JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!
OIL AT $40!!
THREE DOLLAR GAS IN THE US!!
INTEREST RATES GOING UP!!
WEAKENING BONDS!!
WEAKENING CONSUMPTION!!
BYE-BYE RE-FI!!
AN EXPENSIVE AND UNPOPULAR WAR, THAT IS BEING LOST!!
POSSIBLE US WAR CRIMES!!
A PRESIDENT IN TROUBLE AT HOME AND ABROAD!!
OFF-SHORING AND FOREIGN OUT-SOURCING!!
DOWNSIZING!!
THE CHINA BUBBLE!!
AN EXPANDING FORTRESS EUROPE!!
HUGE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT AND DEFICITS!!
TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH ONLY!!
A REFLATED STOCK BUBBLE!!
INSIDERS CASHING OUT!!
AN INTERNET MINI-CRAZE, REDUX!!
INSURANCE COSTS BLOW OUT!!
HEALTH CARE DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION!!
JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!
NOTE: PICK THE ONE STATEMENT ABOVE THAT IS "OUT OF PLACE."
THREE DOLLAR GAS IN THE US!!
INTEREST RATES GOING UP!!
WEAKENING BONDS!!
WEAKENING CONSUMPTION!!
BYE-BYE RE-FI!!
AN EXPENSIVE AND UNPOPULAR WAR, THAT IS BEING LOST!!
POSSIBLE US WAR CRIMES!!
A PRESIDENT IN TROUBLE AT HOME AND ABROAD!!
OFF-SHORING AND FOREIGN OUT-SOURCING!!
DOWNSIZING!!
THE CHINA BUBBLE!!
AN EXPANDING FORTRESS EUROPE!!
HUGE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE DEBT AND DEFICITS!!
TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH ONLY!!
A REFLATED STOCK BUBBLE!!
INSIDERS CASHING OUT!!
AN INTERNET MINI-CRAZE, REDUX!!
INSURANCE COSTS BLOW OUT!!
HEALTH CARE DOUBLE DIGIT INFLATION!!
JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!
NOTE: PICK THE ONE STATEMENT ABOVE THAT IS "OUT OF PLACE."
ARMY BIKER CHICKS KICK ASS!
The photos of army chicks in Iraq pointing an Iraqi prisoners'
pixelated penises has outraged EVEN the Religious Right in the
Republican Party. (It's nice to know that even racist hypocrites are
still capable of outrage.)
And obviously;
Nothing outrages the Religious Right like the sight of male penis!
Even a pixelated male penis!
Now, there are calls for Rummy to resign because of this!
Still, I find the notion of Iraqi families being "smart bombed" in
the homes, EVEN MORE OUTRAGEOUS! Yet few in the Relgious Right saw
fit to comment on this part of their "optional" war.
As to Dubya on Arab TV yesterday; remember Arab Televsion has been
showing pictures of body parts, dead children, and blown apart babies
for over a year now.
The fact that Dubya is now outraged and repentant about some prison
pornography and sexual abuse might seem a little odd to many Arabs
viewers; and indeed, to everyone else who has followed this war.
The FT reports 600 civilian dead in Fallujha, (yea FT drinks the
kool-aid). Perhaps the American Religious Right should see those
photos?
INSTEAD, WE ARE ALL "OUTRAGED" AT THE SIGHT OF SOME ARMY BIKER CHICKS
KICKING ASS AT AN IRAQI PRISON!
WAR, NOT PIXELATED PENIS, IS THE ULTIMATE PORNOGRAPHY!
As to Rummy resigning? Why bother? Surely, Dubya and Rummy and
Wolfie realize by now, that if they all don't hang together, they
will surely all hang seperately.
BECAUSE THE WHOLE WORLD WANTS AN "AMERICAN NUEREMBURG" NOW!
THE ERA OF "OPTIONAL WAR" IS OVER!
pixelated penises has outraged EVEN the Religious Right in the
Republican Party. (It's nice to know that even racist hypocrites are
still capable of outrage.)
And obviously;
Nothing outrages the Religious Right like the sight of male penis!
Even a pixelated male penis!
Now, there are calls for Rummy to resign because of this!
Still, I find the notion of Iraqi families being "smart bombed" in
the homes, EVEN MORE OUTRAGEOUS! Yet few in the Relgious Right saw
fit to comment on this part of their "optional" war.
As to Dubya on Arab TV yesterday; remember Arab Televsion has been
showing pictures of body parts, dead children, and blown apart babies
for over a year now.
The fact that Dubya is now outraged and repentant about some prison
pornography and sexual abuse might seem a little odd to many Arabs
viewers; and indeed, to everyone else who has followed this war.
The FT reports 600 civilian dead in Fallujha, (yea FT drinks the
kool-aid). Perhaps the American Religious Right should see those
photos?
INSTEAD, WE ARE ALL "OUTRAGED" AT THE SIGHT OF SOME ARMY BIKER CHICKS
KICKING ASS AT AN IRAQI PRISON!
WAR, NOT PIXELATED PENIS, IS THE ULTIMATE PORNOGRAPHY!
As to Rummy resigning? Why bother? Surely, Dubya and Rummy and
Wolfie realize by now, that if they all don't hang together, they
will surely all hang seperately.
BECAUSE THE WHOLE WORLD WANTS AN "AMERICAN NUEREMBURG" NOW!
THE ERA OF "OPTIONAL WAR" IS OVER!
Wednesday, May 5, 2004
ALL IN A DAY'S BLOG!
OK, let' recap. What have we got right here at GLOOM AND DOOM in the last month or so;
Well, consider:
1. We predicted that Mr G would go dovish on rates and inflation.
2. We "spanked" Sharon and the Washington Lukudnics, long before spanking Sharon and the Washington Lukudnics was cool.
3. We predicted the "American Defeat" in Falluhja. And for the right reasons.
4. We advised Kerry to do a "time-line" ad buy, and he is.
5. We predicted that "war crimes" would become an issue in Iraq.
And, that's just the "big stuff." But, there's a lot more to come!
So stay tuned to GLOOM AND DOOM...........
THE ONLY PLACE ON THE WEB WHERE YOU CAN ALWAYS EXPECT:
"THE SHOCKING TRUTH TO FINALLY BE REVEALED!"
COMING SOON:
--TWO AD CONCEPTS THAT KERRY ABSOLUTELY MUST USE TO WIN A LANDSLIDE IN NOVEMBER!
--WHY THE AMERICAN ECONOMY RESEMBLES GERMANY IN THE 1930's!
--TWO POLICIES CHANGES THAT WOULD GAURANTEE DUBYA A SECOND TERM!
Well, consider:
1. We predicted that Mr G would go dovish on rates and inflation.
2. We "spanked" Sharon and the Washington Lukudnics, long before spanking Sharon and the Washington Lukudnics was cool.
3. We predicted the "American Defeat" in Falluhja. And for the right reasons.
4. We advised Kerry to do a "time-line" ad buy, and he is.
5. We predicted that "war crimes" would become an issue in Iraq.
And, that's just the "big stuff." But, there's a lot more to come!
So stay tuned to GLOOM AND DOOM...........
THE ONLY PLACE ON THE WEB WHERE YOU CAN ALWAYS EXPECT:
"THE SHOCKING TRUTH TO FINALLY BE REVEALED!"
COMING SOON:
--TWO AD CONCEPTS THAT KERRY ABSOLUTELY MUST USE TO WIN A LANDSLIDE IN NOVEMBER!
--WHY THE AMERICAN ECONOMY RESEMBLES GERMANY IN THE 1930's!
--TWO POLICIES CHANGES THAT WOULD GAURANTEE DUBYA A SECOND TERM!
YIELD CURVE WILL FLATTEN!
The very low Fed Funds rate has caused the CARRY TRADE AND A VERY
STEEP YEILD CURVE.
That may be ending......
But, I'm still sticken to my story that Mr G will NEVER increase
rates......
Mr G is basically stuck in a new kind of "liquidity trap." Not the
kind where liquidity "doesnt' help." No, that would be too easy!
The NEW liquidity trap is one where YOU CAN'T ESCAPE FROM VERY LOW
RATES WITHOUT CAUSING A HORRID CRASH IN THE ECONOMY. Sorta Japanitis!
That's where we are today.
Or lets call it FANNY'S REVENGE! Or, FREDDIE STRIKES BACK!
ANY ATTEMPT TO RAISE RATES, EVEN A LITTLE BIT, WILL LEAD DIRECTLY TO
A VICIOUS STAGFLATION--THAT NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO TOLERATE.
At this point, a hyper-inflation would be more palatable than a
STAGFLATION!
REMEMBER, THE LAST TIME WE HAD STAGFLATION; IT TOOK A 20% PRIME RATE,
FOR YEARS TO GET OUT!
BUT ALAS, THE US ECONOMY WAS MADE OF STRONGER STUFF BACK THEN!
I do expect the yeild curve to flatten NOW; despite the low Fed Funds
rate.
INDEED, A FLAT YEILD CURVE WOULD BE FITTING FOR A STAGFLATION
ECONOMY! Don't ya think?
To wit:
HIGER SHORT RATES, BECAUSE OF THE INFLATION PART OF THE ECONOMY.
BUT, LOWER LONG TERM RATES, BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS BASICALLY
STAGNATED!
SO, DUMP SHORT TERM BONDS.
AND BUY WHATEVER WILL THRIVE WITH A FLAT YEILD CURVE.
LET'S CALL IT THE WORST OF BOTH WORLDS.
I DOUBT HOWEVER THAT WE WILL HAVE A 1970'S STYLE "HAPPY ENDING"
HERE. THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY MACRO-FACTORS THAT ARE VERY, VERY
NEGATIVE FOR THE US LONGER TERM.
THIS AIN'T GONNA BE YOUR FATHERS STAGFLATION!
FOR ONE; WE ARE BECOMING ARGENTINA! OR, IF WE'RE VERY LUCKY THE UK!
Sooner or later, our politics will suffer. And, if you think we are
polarized now, you ain't seen nuttin' yet! But that's another story.
Stay tuned.......
STEEP YEILD CURVE.
That may be ending......
But, I'm still sticken to my story that Mr G will NEVER increase
rates......
Mr G is basically stuck in a new kind of "liquidity trap." Not the
kind where liquidity "doesnt' help." No, that would be too easy!
The NEW liquidity trap is one where YOU CAN'T ESCAPE FROM VERY LOW
RATES WITHOUT CAUSING A HORRID CRASH IN THE ECONOMY. Sorta Japanitis!
That's where we are today.
Or lets call it FANNY'S REVENGE! Or, FREDDIE STRIKES BACK!
ANY ATTEMPT TO RAISE RATES, EVEN A LITTLE BIT, WILL LEAD DIRECTLY TO
A VICIOUS STAGFLATION--THAT NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO TOLERATE.
At this point, a hyper-inflation would be more palatable than a
STAGFLATION!
REMEMBER, THE LAST TIME WE HAD STAGFLATION; IT TOOK A 20% PRIME RATE,
FOR YEARS TO GET OUT!
BUT ALAS, THE US ECONOMY WAS MADE OF STRONGER STUFF BACK THEN!
I do expect the yeild curve to flatten NOW; despite the low Fed Funds
rate.
INDEED, A FLAT YEILD CURVE WOULD BE FITTING FOR A STAGFLATION
ECONOMY! Don't ya think?
To wit:
HIGER SHORT RATES, BECAUSE OF THE INFLATION PART OF THE ECONOMY.
BUT, LOWER LONG TERM RATES, BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS BASICALLY
STAGNATED!
SO, DUMP SHORT TERM BONDS.
AND BUY WHATEVER WILL THRIVE WITH A FLAT YEILD CURVE.
LET'S CALL IT THE WORST OF BOTH WORLDS.
I DOUBT HOWEVER THAT WE WILL HAVE A 1970'S STYLE "HAPPY ENDING"
HERE. THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY MACRO-FACTORS THAT ARE VERY, VERY
NEGATIVE FOR THE US LONGER TERM.
THIS AIN'T GONNA BE YOUR FATHERS STAGFLATION!
FOR ONE; WE ARE BECOMING ARGENTINA! OR, IF WE'RE VERY LUCKY THE UK!
Sooner or later, our politics will suffer. And, if you think we are
polarized now, you ain't seen nuttin' yet! But that's another story.
Stay tuned.......
Monday, May 3, 2004
RATE HIKE IS SUICIDE!
Somehow the notion of a rate hike now seems suicidal.
Consider:
This is not your average "recovery." This is, or was, a recovery
FROM GLUT TO GLUT.
In other words, the "sine quo non" of this so-called recovery was the
AMAZING ONE PERCENT SOLUTION.
That said, the ONE PERCENT SOLUTION has caused it's own problems.
First and foremost, IT REQUIRED, INDEED MANDATED, THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CARRY TRADES! SECOND, IT FORCED MANY INVESTORS INTO ODD TRADES THEY MIGHT NOT HAVE MADE OTHERWISE.
Worse yet, those Carry Trades are now massive, and involve the
BIGGEST INSTITUTIONS IN THE US ECONOMY; Fanny, Freddie, and the BIG
banks namely.
Additionally, we have a new market psychology that is on the hair
trigger for almost everything.
And, if the props are kicked out from under certain bond trades, many
strange and unpredictable things can happen.
And, of course, the entire mess comes from the Fed's burning desire
to restore the Bubble of 1999!
Also, to give "good" corportions their "special currency" to "promote
growth" in the economy. Even as the worker languished in low wages
and higher debt.
Is a rate hike possible under these SPECIAL CONDITIONS?
Well, maybe............but still the risk/reward ratio is not good.
THE FED CAN JAWBONE ON RATES, TO BE SURE, BUT I JUST DON'T SEE HOW
THEY PULL OFF AN ACTUAL RATE HIKE WITHOUT CRASHING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
INDEED, GREENSPAN IS, SORT OF, IN THE POSITION OF THE OLD MOVIE
MAGICIAN, WHO ATTEMPTS TO QUICKLY PULL THE TABLE CLOTH OFF THE TABLE,
WITHOUT MOVING OR UPSETTING THE DISHES!
BUT ALAS, IN MR GREENSPAN'S CASE?
I JUST DON'T SEE A "HOLLYWOOD ENDING" HERE!
ANY ATTEMPT AT "NORMALIZATION" COULD BRING ON A PANIC THAT WOULD BE ANYTHING BUT "NORMAL!"
Consider:
This is not your average "recovery." This is, or was, a recovery
FROM GLUT TO GLUT.
In other words, the "sine quo non" of this so-called recovery was the
AMAZING ONE PERCENT SOLUTION.
That said, the ONE PERCENT SOLUTION has caused it's own problems.
First and foremost, IT REQUIRED, INDEED MANDATED, THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CARRY TRADES! SECOND, IT FORCED MANY INVESTORS INTO ODD TRADES THEY MIGHT NOT HAVE MADE OTHERWISE.
Worse yet, those Carry Trades are now massive, and involve the
BIGGEST INSTITUTIONS IN THE US ECONOMY; Fanny, Freddie, and the BIG
banks namely.
Additionally, we have a new market psychology that is on the hair
trigger for almost everything.
And, if the props are kicked out from under certain bond trades, many
strange and unpredictable things can happen.
And, of course, the entire mess comes from the Fed's burning desire
to restore the Bubble of 1999!
Also, to give "good" corportions their "special currency" to "promote
growth" in the economy. Even as the worker languished in low wages
and higher debt.
Is a rate hike possible under these SPECIAL CONDITIONS?
Well, maybe............but still the risk/reward ratio is not good.
THE FED CAN JAWBONE ON RATES, TO BE SURE, BUT I JUST DON'T SEE HOW
THEY PULL OFF AN ACTUAL RATE HIKE WITHOUT CRASHING THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
INDEED, GREENSPAN IS, SORT OF, IN THE POSITION OF THE OLD MOVIE
MAGICIAN, WHO ATTEMPTS TO QUICKLY PULL THE TABLE CLOTH OFF THE TABLE,
WITHOUT MOVING OR UPSETTING THE DISHES!
BUT ALAS, IN MR GREENSPAN'S CASE?
I JUST DON'T SEE A "HOLLYWOOD ENDING" HERE!
ANY ATTEMPT AT "NORMALIZATION" COULD BRING ON A PANIC THAT WOULD BE ANYTHING BUT "NORMAL!"
Sunday, May 2, 2004
BOXERS, BRIEFS AND T-SHIRTS!
Forget about Clinton's boxers or briefs!
The real question before the public is what's on Kerry's T shirt!
Now, Kerry has gone to great effort to "prove" that he's; CORPORATE
FRIENDLY!
After all, that's where the money is. Right?
As a result, the message for Kerry has been:
I AM THE FRIEND OF CORPORATE AMERICA. LOOT AND POLLUTE IS OK WITH
ME!
That's what is on the FRONT OF KERRY'S T-SHIRT, so far.
The back of the Kerry's T-shirt says:
Oh, by the way, I'M PRO-WORKER, AND PRO CONSUMER, AND IN FAVOR OF
HEALTH CARE REFORM, etc.
HERE'S THE PROBLEM:
THE BACK OF YOUR T-SHIRT IS NOT WHAT PEOPLE SEE FIRST!
THE DEMOCRATIC CORE, THE DEANIACS, AND THE THE GEPHARDT TYPES, DON'T
WANT TO HEAR ALL THIS PRO-CORPORATION DRIVEL FROM KERRY!
NO WONDER THEY ARE TURNED OFF BY THE KERRY MESSAGE SO FAR!
Dubya on the other hand has an easier job:
Dubya can stick with the EVANGELICAL MESSAGE! AND RALLY THE COMMON
FOLK WITH HIS "COME TO JESUS" SPEECH.
And, then on the back of Dubya's T-shirt is written:
CORPORATIONS HAVE THE RUN OF WASHINGTON!
AND NOBODY NOTICES! THE EVANGELICALS ARE STILL HAPPY! IT'S THE
PERFECT STORM FOR REPUBLICANS!
IF KERRY SEEMS TOO POPULIST HE'S PUNISHED IN THE PRESS AS A TAX AND
SPEND LIBERAL. A RADICAL EVEN!
BUT, IF KERRY "GOES CORPORATE FRIENDLY," THE DEMOCRATIC CORE IS
ALIENATED!
KERRY JUST CAN'T CATCH A BREAK!
Now, in favor of the Kerry Camp, is the absolute TOTAL CATASTROPHE OF
DUBYA & CHUMS IN THE WHITE HOUSE.
EVERYDAY, IN EVERYWAY, IT SEEMS THE DUBYA PRESIDENCY BECOMES MORE OF
A DISASTER!
IRAQ! JOBS! CORPORATE CORRUPTION! DEFICITS! THE LIST IS ENDLESS!
Perhaps, it's the plan of Kerry & Co to flash their populist message
a little later in the race; when the Republican attack machine is
distracted with the miserable realities of their own situation. If
so; that's OK.
BUT, IN THE MEAN TIME, THE DEMOCRATIC CORE WILL BE SAYING:
KERRY IS JUST ANOTHER GORE.
DESTINED TO BE BEATEN, YET AGAIN, BY THAT MENTAL MIDGET IN THE WHITE
HOUSE!
Postscript: Time is on Kerry's side however. Because the real issue
is going to be: FOUR MORE YEARS OF THIS!
I don't think so...............
So, with Kerry? Hmmmmm............boxers or briefs? Enquiring minds want to know!
Hint: I say definitey boxers!
The real question before the public is what's on Kerry's T shirt!
Now, Kerry has gone to great effort to "prove" that he's; CORPORATE
FRIENDLY!
After all, that's where the money is. Right?
As a result, the message for Kerry has been:
I AM THE FRIEND OF CORPORATE AMERICA. LOOT AND POLLUTE IS OK WITH
ME!
That's what is on the FRONT OF KERRY'S T-SHIRT, so far.
The back of the Kerry's T-shirt says:
Oh, by the way, I'M PRO-WORKER, AND PRO CONSUMER, AND IN FAVOR OF
HEALTH CARE REFORM, etc.
HERE'S THE PROBLEM:
THE BACK OF YOUR T-SHIRT IS NOT WHAT PEOPLE SEE FIRST!
THE DEMOCRATIC CORE, THE DEANIACS, AND THE THE GEPHARDT TYPES, DON'T
WANT TO HEAR ALL THIS PRO-CORPORATION DRIVEL FROM KERRY!
NO WONDER THEY ARE TURNED OFF BY THE KERRY MESSAGE SO FAR!
Dubya on the other hand has an easier job:
Dubya can stick with the EVANGELICAL MESSAGE! AND RALLY THE COMMON
FOLK WITH HIS "COME TO JESUS" SPEECH.
And, then on the back of Dubya's T-shirt is written:
CORPORATIONS HAVE THE RUN OF WASHINGTON!
AND NOBODY NOTICES! THE EVANGELICALS ARE STILL HAPPY! IT'S THE
PERFECT STORM FOR REPUBLICANS!
IF KERRY SEEMS TOO POPULIST HE'S PUNISHED IN THE PRESS AS A TAX AND
SPEND LIBERAL. A RADICAL EVEN!
BUT, IF KERRY "GOES CORPORATE FRIENDLY," THE DEMOCRATIC CORE IS
ALIENATED!
KERRY JUST CAN'T CATCH A BREAK!
Now, in favor of the Kerry Camp, is the absolute TOTAL CATASTROPHE OF
DUBYA & CHUMS IN THE WHITE HOUSE.
EVERYDAY, IN EVERYWAY, IT SEEMS THE DUBYA PRESIDENCY BECOMES MORE OF
A DISASTER!
IRAQ! JOBS! CORPORATE CORRUPTION! DEFICITS! THE LIST IS ENDLESS!
Perhaps, it's the plan of Kerry & Co to flash their populist message
a little later in the race; when the Republican attack machine is
distracted with the miserable realities of their own situation. If
so; that's OK.
BUT, IN THE MEAN TIME, THE DEMOCRATIC CORE WILL BE SAYING:
KERRY IS JUST ANOTHER GORE.
DESTINED TO BE BEATEN, YET AGAIN, BY THAT MENTAL MIDGET IN THE WHITE
HOUSE!
Postscript: Time is on Kerry's side however. Because the real issue
is going to be: FOUR MORE YEARS OF THIS!
I don't think so...............
So, with Kerry? Hmmmmm............boxers or briefs? Enquiring minds want to know!
Hint: I say definitey boxers!
Saturday, May 1, 2004
THE PRESIDENCY, THE PRESIDENT, AND DUBYA
I'm always amazed by "the polls."
Who are these people in the polls; and exactly why do their opinions
matter?
Consider:
Clearly, MOST Americans are totally disengaged from the day to day
chatter about geopolitics and the economy.
Probably less than 1% read the WSJ or NYT op-ed page! Sorry Paul,
Tom and Maureen!
Most Americans are into sports, Hollywood gossip, and wishing they
had big "silly-cone" lips, and could sing and dance like
an "American Idol!"
SO WHAT DO "THE POLLS" REALLY TELL US?
Well, most Americans have great respect for THE OFFICE OF THE
PRESIDENCY. After all, this is the position held by Washington,
Jefferson and Lincoln. (Not that most Americans know this!)
Still most, indeed, a majority of Americans would consider
it "unpatriotic" to be "against" the president FOR ANY REASON!
They respect and rely on THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT to do their
thinking for them. And, that gives them plenty of time to watch
ESPN, and MTV and the Food and HG Channel.
And, of course, "fluff news" on the broadcast networks. Some can
even "parrot" something Dan Rather said yesterday, as "their opinion!"
Secondly, Americans respect THE PERSON OF THE PRESIDENT. The person
holding the office of president is vested with a certain credibility
that Americans accept ipso facto, and without question. The current
holder of that postion is Dubya.
Americans lack the seperation of "head of state" from "head of
government," and that is unfortunate, but alas, it's too late to
change things now.
LASTLY THERE IS DUBYA WHO IS THE BOTH THE PERSON OF THE PRESIDENT AND
THE HOLDER OF THE HISTORIC OFFICE.
Many have given Dubya "a pass" on his inability to communicate, and
the resulting lack of diplomatic capacity on the world stage.
BUT, NOW COMES, DUBYA, THE CANDIDATE for PRESIDENT.
As a candidate for a second term, Dubya will lose the aura of the
presidency IN THE VOTING BOOTH!
PEOPLE WILL REALLY BE ASKING IN NOVEMBER 2004:
WHO SHOULD BE THE "NEXT PRESIDENT?"
HAS DUBYA'S FIRST TERM BEEN WORTHY OF A SECOND TERM?
HAVE THE LAST FOUR YEARS BEEN "WONDERFUL." AND IN WHAT WAY?
AT SOME POINT, PROBABLY AROUND OCTOBER 2004 DUBYA AND KERRY WILL
STAND BEFORE THE VOTERS, AS CANDIDATES FOR THE "NEXT PRESIDENCY."
AND THE QUESTION WILL BE SIMPLY:
FOUR MORE YEARS OF DUBYA?
OR, SHOULD WE TRY SOMETHING DIFFERENT?
THE ONLY POLL THAT COUNTS IS THE ONE IN THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER
2004.
Postscript: Regarding Kerry's "political persona." He seems almost
like a Democratic "Bob Dole." That Kennedy "drone" is tiresome.
But for now, and until late summer, my hunch is that Kerry should
stay in the "rose garden," and be the NON-DUBYA alternative! The
less said the better. Perhaps, a VP that is more "light and cheery,"
and less senatorial would be advisable?
The Kerry Camp must know that Dubya is "self-destructing on every
front.
And, as any GOOD trial lawyer will tell you:
When The Judge is beating up on your opponent, DON'T SAY A WORD! LOOK
HUMBLE AND "NEEDY!" The minute you "pipe up" the Judge will turn on
you! My Advise to Kerry: JUST LET DUBYA KEEP TALKIN'! He's on
defense now. Save your offense for the last minute.
Who are these people in the polls; and exactly why do their opinions
matter?
Consider:
Clearly, MOST Americans are totally disengaged from the day to day
chatter about geopolitics and the economy.
Probably less than 1% read the WSJ or NYT op-ed page! Sorry Paul,
Tom and Maureen!
Most Americans are into sports, Hollywood gossip, and wishing they
had big "silly-cone" lips, and could sing and dance like
an "American Idol!"
SO WHAT DO "THE POLLS" REALLY TELL US?
Well, most Americans have great respect for THE OFFICE OF THE
PRESIDENCY. After all, this is the position held by Washington,
Jefferson and Lincoln. (Not that most Americans know this!)
Still most, indeed, a majority of Americans would consider
it "unpatriotic" to be "against" the president FOR ANY REASON!
They respect and rely on THE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT to do their
thinking for them. And, that gives them plenty of time to watch
ESPN, and MTV and the Food and HG Channel.
And, of course, "fluff news" on the broadcast networks. Some can
even "parrot" something Dan Rather said yesterday, as "their opinion!"
Secondly, Americans respect THE PERSON OF THE PRESIDENT. The person
holding the office of president is vested with a certain credibility
that Americans accept ipso facto, and without question. The current
holder of that postion is Dubya.
Americans lack the seperation of "head of state" from "head of
government," and that is unfortunate, but alas, it's too late to
change things now.
LASTLY THERE IS DUBYA WHO IS THE BOTH THE PERSON OF THE PRESIDENT AND
THE HOLDER OF THE HISTORIC OFFICE.
Many have given Dubya "a pass" on his inability to communicate, and
the resulting lack of diplomatic capacity on the world stage.
BUT, NOW COMES, DUBYA, THE CANDIDATE for PRESIDENT.
As a candidate for a second term, Dubya will lose the aura of the
presidency IN THE VOTING BOOTH!
PEOPLE WILL REALLY BE ASKING IN NOVEMBER 2004:
WHO SHOULD BE THE "NEXT PRESIDENT?"
HAS DUBYA'S FIRST TERM BEEN WORTHY OF A SECOND TERM?
HAVE THE LAST FOUR YEARS BEEN "WONDERFUL." AND IN WHAT WAY?
AT SOME POINT, PROBABLY AROUND OCTOBER 2004 DUBYA AND KERRY WILL
STAND BEFORE THE VOTERS, AS CANDIDATES FOR THE "NEXT PRESIDENCY."
AND THE QUESTION WILL BE SIMPLY:
FOUR MORE YEARS OF DUBYA?
OR, SHOULD WE TRY SOMETHING DIFFERENT?
THE ONLY POLL THAT COUNTS IS THE ONE IN THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER
2004.
Postscript: Regarding Kerry's "political persona." He seems almost
like a Democratic "Bob Dole." That Kennedy "drone" is tiresome.
But for now, and until late summer, my hunch is that Kerry should
stay in the "rose garden," and be the NON-DUBYA alternative! The
less said the better. Perhaps, a VP that is more "light and cheery,"
and less senatorial would be advisable?
The Kerry Camp must know that Dubya is "self-destructing on every
front.
And, as any GOOD trial lawyer will tell you:
When The Judge is beating up on your opponent, DON'T SAY A WORD! LOOK
HUMBLE AND "NEEDY!" The minute you "pipe up" the Judge will turn on
you! My Advise to Kerry: JUST LET DUBYA KEEP TALKIN'! He's on
defense now. Save your offense for the last minute.
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