Thursday, March 31, 2005
STOCKS STILL A SUCKERS BET.....?
Frankly this looks more like a top than a bottom....? I won't touch this market until the NYSE is making 300 new lows everyday.... And 600 to 800 new daily lows might be an excellent buying opportunity. Today we have a suckers market with a whole lot of distribution going on. I am expecting a serious downside breakout after May first when the pension fund suckers are all in at the tops....which by the way are being nicely maintained now by the Market Masters....
SENSIBLE SHOES, or BLAMING CONDI...?
Friedman notes in today's NYTimes regarding Condi:
"Does she have the toughness to deal with Ariel Sharon? She has not shown it up to now. If the Bush team lets Mr. Sharon trade Gaza for the West Bank, the whole U.S. democratization agenda in the region will be set back. Does she have the moxie to restrain the Kurds and Shiites from overreaching in Iraq? The steel to deal with the Syrians? The will to move the Egyptians? Too soon to say."
Condi seems to be the Secretary of State that the NYTimes loves to hate.... Now even Friedman is complaining about Condi's choice of shoes while reviewing the troops!
But what about Condi's REAL POWER to influence things in the world. Now that Dubya's unilateralism and imperialism has fallen flat on it's face....?
Indeed, Dubya himself has become something of a global laughing stock...and by implications the Americans have been dragged down "by association."
That True Facts are that The US is a Bankrupt Super Power now. Really like Rome in the 400's AD. Like the Ancient Romans the only people who respect us are the ones we pay off..!
Know this: The Kurds will do whatever they want to do....they don't fear Condi or Bush. So too with the Shia, the Lebanese and the Iranians.
The North Koreans are dancing around bragging about their bomb....what can Dubya do? And China and Japan own us...even while OPEC controls our highways.
Sharon will take the West Bank for Gaza if he wants to....and nothing Condi can say will stop it.
In truth we do not have a Uni-polar world now....or even a Multi-polar world.
We have a Micro-polar world...... By choosing the Road to Stupidity and Bankruptcy Americans have forfeited their moral and political high ground. And what can be done about it now.....? BUSH BOMBS WORLD.....?
I don't think so..... We have had a magnitude 10 geo-political earthquake because of Iraq and American unilateralism. The Neocons were the last straw for American influence in the world.
No one will respect Condi because world leaders do not respect Bush....it's just that simple. We need a better President.....
"Does she have the toughness to deal with Ariel Sharon? She has not shown it up to now. If the Bush team lets Mr. Sharon trade Gaza for the West Bank, the whole U.S. democratization agenda in the region will be set back. Does she have the moxie to restrain the Kurds and Shiites from overreaching in Iraq? The steel to deal with the Syrians? The will to move the Egyptians? Too soon to say."
Condi seems to be the Secretary of State that the NYTimes loves to hate.... Now even Friedman is complaining about Condi's choice of shoes while reviewing the troops!
But what about Condi's REAL POWER to influence things in the world. Now that Dubya's unilateralism and imperialism has fallen flat on it's face....?
Indeed, Dubya himself has become something of a global laughing stock...and by implications the Americans have been dragged down "by association."
That True Facts are that The US is a Bankrupt Super Power now. Really like Rome in the 400's AD. Like the Ancient Romans the only people who respect us are the ones we pay off..!
Know this: The Kurds will do whatever they want to do....they don't fear Condi or Bush. So too with the Shia, the Lebanese and the Iranians.
The North Koreans are dancing around bragging about their bomb....what can Dubya do? And China and Japan own us...even while OPEC controls our highways.
Sharon will take the West Bank for Gaza if he wants to....and nothing Condi can say will stop it.
In truth we do not have a Uni-polar world now....or even a Multi-polar world.
We have a Micro-polar world...... By choosing the Road to Stupidity and Bankruptcy Americans have forfeited their moral and political high ground. And what can be done about it now.....? BUSH BOMBS WORLD.....?
I don't think so..... We have had a magnitude 10 geo-political earthquake because of Iraq and American unilateralism. The Neocons were the last straw for American influence in the world.
No one will respect Condi because world leaders do not respect Bush....it's just that simple. We need a better President.....
Wednesday, March 30, 2005
BERNANKE SPEECH ON MONETARY POLICY
Says Bernanke: By watching financial markets
and listening to the views of market participants, FOMC members are able to know with considerable accuracy what the markets expect for monetary policy. This information helps Committee members deduce how their own actions and statements are likely to affect asset prices and yields.
Indeed, many would say that the Fed "follows the market's expectations" too closely! Does the Fed exist solely to satisfy Wall Street? Or is it's duty to the ordinary citizen....?
and listening to the views of market participants, FOMC members are able to know with considerable accuracy what the markets expect for monetary policy. This information helps Committee members deduce how their own actions and statements are likely to affect asset prices and yields.
Indeed, many would say that the Fed "follows the market's expectations" too closely! Does the Fed exist solely to satisfy Wall Street? Or is it's duty to the ordinary citizen....?
SUCKERS FLOCK, STOCKS ROCK
News that 22 billions went into stock mutual funds last month, up from about 9 billion the prior month, explains a lot about today's rally.
WHEN THE SUCKERS FLOCK, STOCKS ROCK.....
But is it real? No. Of course not. These are the last days of the quarter and a lot of "window dressing" was going on.... But also there is the need to keep mom and pop "in the game" at least until the April 15 tax day.....
There is a very strong possibility of a big drop after May 1st. This year~~ sell in May and go away~~ could be very true.....given the macro-economic environment.
WHEN THE SUCKERS FLOCK, STOCKS ROCK.....
But is it real? No. Of course not. These are the last days of the quarter and a lot of "window dressing" was going on.... But also there is the need to keep mom and pop "in the game" at least until the April 15 tax day.....
There is a very strong possibility of a big drop after May 1st. This year~~ sell in May and go away~~ could be very true.....given the macro-economic environment.
WOLFIE, THE HUMANITARIAN.....?
We'll see..... Can the brains behind the ill fated Iraq debacle suddenly become of force for prosperity and peace?
SCHIAVO CASE WILL SPUR ASSISTED SUICIDE
The action of the Court of Appeals in allowing a "new appeal" yesterday only to deny it today is like that old trick of putting a dollar bill on the street with a string attached....then when someone tries to pick it up....you pull the string.
Clearly, the parents of Ms Schiavo are becoming media "anti-heros" in the minds of many Americans.
Everyone seems to be concerned about "becoming like Terry." No one seems to "want to live" in a vegetative state...even if their next of kin want it! Saddly, the way Ms Schiavo is dying is particularly unpleasant and slow....essentially being straved to death and de-hydrated. Would not some kind of easy exit be a better way to go? Many must be asking why Schiavo's parents are so intent on prolonging her suffering....as they surely are now. Could it be a book deal, a movie, the inevitable talk show invites? Let's hope not....that would be a terrible excuse for prolonging the suffering of a loved one......
There will likely be a flood of state laws on this issue after Schiavo finally dies...... And VERY FEW will be in favor of the Republican and Religious Right's view of: LIFE NO MATTER WHAT.
Some of the more progressive states will probably pass assisted suicide laws....... And any politicians, even in red states, who want the "Life, no matter what" approach, may find themselves out of office.
Clearly, the parents of Ms Schiavo are becoming media "anti-heros" in the minds of many Americans.
Everyone seems to be concerned about "becoming like Terry." No one seems to "want to live" in a vegetative state...even if their next of kin want it! Saddly, the way Ms Schiavo is dying is particularly unpleasant and slow....essentially being straved to death and de-hydrated. Would not some kind of easy exit be a better way to go? Many must be asking why Schiavo's parents are so intent on prolonging her suffering....as they surely are now. Could it be a book deal, a movie, the inevitable talk show invites? Let's hope not....that would be a terrible excuse for prolonging the suffering of a loved one......
There will likely be a flood of state laws on this issue after Schiavo finally dies...... And VERY FEW will be in favor of the Republican and Religious Right's view of: LIFE NO MATTER WHAT.
Some of the more progressive states will probably pass assisted suicide laws....... And any politicians, even in red states, who want the "Life, no matter what" approach, may find themselves out of office.
GIVING UP ON AMERICA.....?
Sen. Danforth writes in todays NYTimes: "The problem is not with people or churches that are politically active. It is with a party that has gone so far in adopting a sectarian agenda that it has become the political extension of a religious movement."
If the "religious agenda" were the only problem America faced there might still be some hope.
But the so-called religious agenda is merely being used by Washington and Wall Street as a "cover story" for much much deeper problems.Issues like debt and deficits, health care and retirement, Social Security and Medicare, the uninsured, the the looting of American corporations by the Cult of the CEO....are the REAL PROBLEMS.
Not, Terri Schiavo's feeding tube!
The Republican use of DIVERSIONARY ISSUES to distract the less informed public is not easy, but the Religious Right has managed to pull it off.
For the most part Conservative Christians have been voting AGAINST their personal economic agenda by siding with Wall Street Republicans politically.For the most part, the Republican rich offer the religious right only "red meat" socio-religious issues and promises of Constitutional Amendments that never materialize....
Even while "red state" jobs go to China and health care and wages deteriorate...... Over 60% of the public think the economy is deteriorating. So, in truth, the "religious agenda" is just a red herring to distract Bubba Voters from what's really happening....
But here's the real problem:
Sooner or later Bubba will wake up.....and then the Republicans will have nothing to offer except Fascism. Fascism being the ultimate wedge issue for a failed elite.
If the "religious agenda" were the only problem America faced there might still be some hope.
But the so-called religious agenda is merely being used by Washington and Wall Street as a "cover story" for much much deeper problems.Issues like debt and deficits, health care and retirement, Social Security and Medicare, the uninsured, the the looting of American corporations by the Cult of the CEO....are the REAL PROBLEMS.
Not, Terri Schiavo's feeding tube!
The Republican use of DIVERSIONARY ISSUES to distract the less informed public is not easy, but the Religious Right has managed to pull it off.
For the most part Conservative Christians have been voting AGAINST their personal economic agenda by siding with Wall Street Republicans politically.For the most part, the Republican rich offer the religious right only "red meat" socio-religious issues and promises of Constitutional Amendments that never materialize....
Even while "red state" jobs go to China and health care and wages deteriorate...... Over 60% of the public think the economy is deteriorating. So, in truth, the "religious agenda" is just a red herring to distract Bubba Voters from what's really happening....
But here's the real problem:
Sooner or later Bubba will wake up.....and then the Republicans will have nothing to offer except Fascism. Fascism being the ultimate wedge issue for a failed elite.
THE DEMOCRATIC PYRAMID SCHEME....
Sen. Bradley says in the NYT today:
"If Democrats are serious about preparing for the next election or the next election after that, some influential Democrats will have to resist entrusting their dreams to individual candidates and instead make a commitment to build a stable pyramid from the base up. It will take at least a decade's commitment, and it won't come cheap. But there really is no other choice."
PURE NONSENSE....here's why:
The Democrats already have a "pyramid scheme" working for them in the Republican/Greedspan Bubblenomics of the past 20 years.
The current Republican Political Dominance will be ended by an Economic Catastrophe just as happen in the 1930's.
Only when faced with disaster do people "naturally" come together for the common good. Prosperity breeds selfish thinking.... Hmmm I think thats even in the Bible.
The Republican agenda of greed, fear and hate will prevail until it's own internal contradictions bring it down.....
True, there is nothing that the Democrats can do now except wait and watch. The Democrats are not even players in the minds of many Republican now.
I have no idea how this will happen, but it is apparent that the current US economy is living on borrowed time, and even more borrowed money!
The seeds for the next great economic downturn have been sowed by the Republican Rich.....
All Democrats have to do now is: .......THINK SPRING!
Postscript:
If posting ever becomes NEARLY impossible at Blogger....like today! Check out my old site at Yahoo Groups....see side bar for a link to the OLD GLOOM AND DOOM SITE. Blogger and Yahoo are really acting as "mirror sites" or backups for this blog.....
"If Democrats are serious about preparing for the next election or the next election after that, some influential Democrats will have to resist entrusting their dreams to individual candidates and instead make a commitment to build a stable pyramid from the base up. It will take at least a decade's commitment, and it won't come cheap. But there really is no other choice."
PURE NONSENSE....here's why:
The Democrats already have a "pyramid scheme" working for them in the Republican/Greedspan Bubblenomics of the past 20 years.
The current Republican Political Dominance will be ended by an Economic Catastrophe just as happen in the 1930's.
Only when faced with disaster do people "naturally" come together for the common good. Prosperity breeds selfish thinking.... Hmmm I think thats even in the Bible.
The Republican agenda of greed, fear and hate will prevail until it's own internal contradictions bring it down.....
True, there is nothing that the Democrats can do now except wait and watch. The Democrats are not even players in the minds of many Republican now.
I have no idea how this will happen, but it is apparent that the current US economy is living on borrowed time, and even more borrowed money!
The seeds for the next great economic downturn have been sowed by the Republican Rich.....
All Democrats have to do now is: .......THINK SPRING!
Postscript:
If posting ever becomes NEARLY impossible at Blogger....like today! Check out my old site at Yahoo Groups....see side bar for a link to the OLD GLOOM AND DOOM SITE. Blogger and Yahoo are really acting as "mirror sites" or backups for this blog.....
REPUBLICANS SECRET WEAPON REVEALED!
All of this navel gazing by Democrats is rather tedious.....
But consider:
The Republican "secret weapons" are:
1. The Civil War of 1861-65. (Actually the southern civil war against the north started in 1776, and goes on even today)
2. Fox News and AM Radio, and the packaging of political propaganda as "news."
3. A willingness to lie repeatedly, and to blatantly exploit issues that appeal to less intelligent voters, like racism and religion and greed.
Where the America's "old media" failed was in trying to compete with the new conservative media outlets. The truth is that the conservative Bubba Agenda of hate and fear and greed is very, very compelling to most viewers.
Especially, when wrapped in the new false religiousity.Most Bubba Republicans actually believe that Jesus wanted them to re-elect Bush in 2004!
You simply can not have a rational political discussion on these terms.
And please remember, these people aren't just faking their religious beliefs, like some of us enlightened liberals have to do on occasion to placate the less informed. These Bubba voters are true believers! Jesus is real for them. God is telling them what to do next.
Democrats simply can not compete with Republican hate, fear and greed by appealing to fairness and equality!
Never underestimate the role of public ignorance in a democracy. The Founding Fathers didn't in 1789; they knew what would happen if you empower the ignorant.
Unless and until the Liberal North can get the Bubba South to vote their economic issues, and not their social issues....nothing Democrats can do will change things.
But, despair not, the Democrats have a "secret weapon" too....
$3 Gas!
.....it's coming and sooner than many people think.
But consider:
The Republican "secret weapons" are:
1. The Civil War of 1861-65. (Actually the southern civil war against the north started in 1776, and goes on even today)
2. Fox News and AM Radio, and the packaging of political propaganda as "news."
3. A willingness to lie repeatedly, and to blatantly exploit issues that appeal to less intelligent voters, like racism and religion and greed.
Where the America's "old media" failed was in trying to compete with the new conservative media outlets. The truth is that the conservative Bubba Agenda of hate and fear and greed is very, very compelling to most viewers.
Especially, when wrapped in the new false religiousity.Most Bubba Republicans actually believe that Jesus wanted them to re-elect Bush in 2004!
You simply can not have a rational political discussion on these terms.
And please remember, these people aren't just faking their religious beliefs, like some of us enlightened liberals have to do on occasion to placate the less informed. These Bubba voters are true believers! Jesus is real for them. God is telling them what to do next.
Democrats simply can not compete with Republican hate, fear and greed by appealing to fairness and equality!
Never underestimate the role of public ignorance in a democracy. The Founding Fathers didn't in 1789; they knew what would happen if you empower the ignorant.
Unless and until the Liberal North can get the Bubba South to vote their economic issues, and not their social issues....nothing Democrats can do will change things.
But, despair not, the Democrats have a "secret weapon" too....
$3 Gas!
.....it's coming and sooner than many people think.
Tuesday, March 29, 2005
INTO PHOTOS.....? TRY FLICKR.COM
The problem is everything at this site is in Flash...so you can't steal the pics for your own use!
DEMOCRACY AT WORK IN IRAQ....?
The notion of democracy as a cure all may be under question in Iraq soon. Lately, Dubya and the Necons seem to think that all protest is democracy...... But protest and revolt can be simply mob rule.....
Storming the government buildings can also be democracy in action.....as we have recently discovered. The real proof of democracy is how the minority acts, not how the majority governs....
In Iraq it is highly probable that the Kurds will walk out soon.... And the prospects of the Shia ruling Iraq from Baghdad seem unlikely....
In truth, Democracy only works in fairly sophisticated societies with a high level of political dialogue.....and even then it's difficult. Just look at the US elections of 2000 and 2004.
Democracy is NOT for newbies....like Iraq! They simply are not ready yet.....that nation is still questioning who and what it really is. Not really a good sign.
Storming the government buildings can also be democracy in action.....as we have recently discovered. The real proof of democracy is how the minority acts, not how the majority governs....
In Iraq it is highly probable that the Kurds will walk out soon.... And the prospects of the Shia ruling Iraq from Baghdad seem unlikely....
In truth, Democracy only works in fairly sophisticated societies with a high level of political dialogue.....and even then it's difficult. Just look at the US elections of 2000 and 2004.
Democracy is NOT for newbies....like Iraq! They simply are not ready yet.....that nation is still questioning who and what it really is. Not really a good sign.
CLOSED END FUNDS ARE ROLLING OVER....AGAIN! MAY 04 REDUX?
Let 'em roll...... Major upset in income investing looms. These shares are going to have to take out the May 04 lows, and then some! Watch these shares .....they are the canaries in the mine for the house bubble, bonds and gas prices....and many other consequences of the post bubble bubble.....
KOFI, SADDAM AND THE UN
It's no secret that the Iraq sanctions were not popular
with many in the UN. And the Oil for Food program was really an attempt to circumvent US insistance on Iraqi sanctions; even while many in the world thought that only ordinary Iraqi people were suffering in Iraq.....not Saddam.
Hence a CULTURE OF CIRCUMVENTION developed, wherein anything that could be done "under the table" to help "the people" of Iraq was permissible...
This "secret program" of course begged to be exploited by those involved....particularly the "humanitarians" at the UN.....
That is likely what really happen with Oil for Food....not barefaced greed, but rather a wish to end the Iraq sanctions; without the US catching on to the real motives of those involved....
with many in the UN. And the Oil for Food program was really an attempt to circumvent US insistance on Iraqi sanctions; even while many in the world thought that only ordinary Iraqi people were suffering in Iraq.....not Saddam.
Hence a CULTURE OF CIRCUMVENTION developed, wherein anything that could be done "under the table" to help "the people" of Iraq was permissible...
This "secret program" of course begged to be exploited by those involved....particularly the "humanitarians" at the UN.....
That is likely what really happen with Oil for Food....not barefaced greed, but rather a wish to end the Iraq sanctions; without the US catching on to the real motives of those involved....
STATE FUNERAL FOR SCHAIVO....?
The Bush Brothers are being justly criticized
by the Religious Right for not taking custody of Terri Schaivo.
But the best way for the Bush family to get back to their "base" would be to order a State Funeral for Schaivo in the capitol....with full military honors.
I would certainly expect Dubya to attend and make a speech at Terri's funeral when the time comes....because any further "ignoring" of the religious right by the Bush Brothers will seriously undermine their credibility among the Bible Belt Republicans.
Terri Schaivo is the only Citizen to ever have a "special law" passed by Congress for her personal benefit.....this historic achievement deserves to be honored.
Even the corrupted defense contractors have to line up at the Congressional trough for their "goodies." So Terri is a special person deserving of a full State Funeral by decree of the Bush Administration.
THE BUSH BROTHERS HAVE TOTALLY FAILED THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT IN THE SCHIAVO CASE....AND SOME AMENDS SEEM TO BE IN ORDER.
After the funeral, the parents of Terri Schiavo should be given the Medal of Freedom like Paul Bremer and others who have fought for the Republican cause.
Delay and Bush should be forced to embrace the Religious Right's cause of "Life, no matter what." .....No matter what.
And Kudos to Krugman for rubbing the Bush Brothers' noses in the Schiavo mess.....don't let up!
by the Religious Right for not taking custody of Terri Schaivo.
But the best way for the Bush family to get back to their "base" would be to order a State Funeral for Schaivo in the capitol....with full military honors.
I would certainly expect Dubya to attend and make a speech at Terri's funeral when the time comes....because any further "ignoring" of the religious right by the Bush Brothers will seriously undermine their credibility among the Bible Belt Republicans.
Terri Schaivo is the only Citizen to ever have a "special law" passed by Congress for her personal benefit.....this historic achievement deserves to be honored.
Even the corrupted defense contractors have to line up at the Congressional trough for their "goodies." So Terri is a special person deserving of a full State Funeral by decree of the Bush Administration.
THE BUSH BROTHERS HAVE TOTALLY FAILED THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT IN THE SCHIAVO CASE....AND SOME AMENDS SEEM TO BE IN ORDER.
After the funeral, the parents of Terri Schiavo should be given the Medal of Freedom like Paul Bremer and others who have fought for the Republican cause.
Delay and Bush should be forced to embrace the Religious Right's cause of "Life, no matter what." .....No matter what.
And Kudos to Krugman for rubbing the Bush Brothers' noses in the Schiavo mess.....don't let up!
Monday, March 28, 2005
TOM DELAY PULLED THE PLUG ON RELATIVE.....
Well, hypocrisy is the cornerstone of most religions....and a sine quo non for the religious.... Even WSJ turns on Delay....
CANDLE STICKING BOND YIELDS...
How a "bond crash" is avoided this spring is beyond my reasoning.....apparently the Street will "ignore it" until it doesn't ignore it...but when that will be is anyone's guess.....
With the 1st quarter ending and the 2d quarter starting this week....the market looks like pure gloom and doom. Just look at the chart of any REIT or closed end income fund....for examples.
With the 1st quarter ending and the 2d quarter starting this week....the market looks like pure gloom and doom. Just look at the chart of any REIT or closed end income fund....for examples.
Sunday, March 27, 2005
RIP: SCHIAVO.....?
The religious right may be trying
to wind down the rhetoric on the Schiavo case now that it has boomeranged on them. Dubya's approval rating has plunged among conservative men..... And with the gas price and the impending "bond crash" it may be time for Delay et al to back off.
They are getting no mileage on this matter....... Alas, the Schiavo's 15 minutes of fame may be ending...... In another week they will be just like the rest of us dealing with family matters without media coverage and politicians interferring.
I would hope that some legislation would come out of this.....on end of life issues. And perhaps someone will bring up the health care issues that Dubya has been desperately trying to avoid!
to wind down the rhetoric on the Schiavo case now that it has boomeranged on them. Dubya's approval rating has plunged among conservative men..... And with the gas price and the impending "bond crash" it may be time for Delay et al to back off.
They are getting no mileage on this matter....... Alas, the Schiavo's 15 minutes of fame may be ending...... In another week they will be just like the rest of us dealing with family matters without media coverage and politicians interferring.
I would hope that some legislation would come out of this.....on end of life issues. And perhaps someone will bring up the health care issues that Dubya has been desperately trying to avoid!
Saturday, March 26, 2005
LEBANON: DEMOCRACY OR NEW CIVIL WAR?
And so it starts in Lebanon....Dubya and the Neocons seem to think that all change is good......? Let it's not. How much longer will it take for Dubya to figure this out?
DUBYA, TERRY, THE POPE AND THE MAGICAL WORLD VIEW
As an agnostic and true child of the enlightenment,
I have a little trouble with recent events as you might expect.
The Terry Schaivo case has highlighted the idea that many people in the US still hold on to magical thinking and the mystical world view..... And to a great extent this is encouraged by leaders like Bush and The Pope.
Now this is not to say that agnostics don't understand the magical thinking of the religious...far from it. But what most agnostics and enlightened people miss is that those who truly hold on to mystical thinking really do believe it!
How easy it must be to believe in Magic and Mysticism.....! I really wish I could at times. But if you start down the road of magical thinking where does it lead? To a world of good and evil. To Gods and Monsters. Why not believe in other Gods? Zeus. Isis. The Knights Templar. Magic charms and incantations. etc.
As the Terry Schiavo carnival comes to it's end.....I have to wonder: How many more news carnivals are we going to have under Bush and the Religious Right? They seem intent on making Dubya's second term wall to wall mystical thinking. Anything to divert attention from the real and serious issues at hand.......
What price will the American public pay for their odd notions and magical thinking? And how strange it is that religious and secular thinkers are out there totally cut off from each others private worlds......as this new century begins.
I have a little trouble with recent events as you might expect.
The Terry Schaivo case has highlighted the idea that many people in the US still hold on to magical thinking and the mystical world view..... And to a great extent this is encouraged by leaders like Bush and The Pope.
Now this is not to say that agnostics don't understand the magical thinking of the religious...far from it. But what most agnostics and enlightened people miss is that those who truly hold on to mystical thinking really do believe it!
How easy it must be to believe in Magic and Mysticism.....! I really wish I could at times. But if you start down the road of magical thinking where does it lead? To a world of good and evil. To Gods and Monsters. Why not believe in other Gods? Zeus. Isis. The Knights Templar. Magic charms and incantations. etc.
As the Terry Schiavo carnival comes to it's end.....I have to wonder: How many more news carnivals are we going to have under Bush and the Religious Right? They seem intent on making Dubya's second term wall to wall mystical thinking. Anything to divert attention from the real and serious issues at hand.......
What price will the American public pay for their odd notions and magical thinking? And how strange it is that religious and secular thinkers are out there totally cut off from each others private worlds......as this new century begins.
Friday, March 25, 2005
SIXTY PERCENT SAY ECONOMY IS PUNK...
Amid the happy talk about the economy from various pundits, sixty percent of people polled by USAToday say the US economy is getting weaker. This, when we are likely to hear that the economy produced 200,000 "jobs" in March.....?
And of course, gas is way way up and the markets are floundering and mostly down... And there is a real possibility that THE SPRING CRASH will happen again this May, just as it happen last May when the NYSE was making 800 new lows everyday for the first part of the month.....
While many are talking up the dollar based on the Fed statement, another group of pundits are saying that the Fed isn't going to go 50 bp anytime soon and the dollar's decline will continue for that reason.....among others.
And of course, Dubya's approval rating among conservative men has fallen off a cliff....and naturally liberals never did agree with Dubya... And this Schiavo carinval is just becoming a freak show that only the American media could produce!
IN SHORT, THERE IS NOTHING BUT GLOOM AMID THE HAPPY TALK......
Well, any really 'good news' should probably be reason to sell..... Income plays are starting to roll over like it's May 2004...... And if Terry Schiavo does die....I'm sure she will get a state funeral by the Bush Administration....with all and sundry in attendance denouncing the judicial branch of government........ AND THE CIRCUS CONTINUES....
Have a great holiday weekend and just turn off the news...... Try to make your March Madness into......Go Big Ten,,,,!
Plenty of time for gloom and doom next week..... stay tuned.
And of course, gas is way way up and the markets are floundering and mostly down... And there is a real possibility that THE SPRING CRASH will happen again this May, just as it happen last May when the NYSE was making 800 new lows everyday for the first part of the month.....
While many are talking up the dollar based on the Fed statement, another group of pundits are saying that the Fed isn't going to go 50 bp anytime soon and the dollar's decline will continue for that reason.....among others.
And of course, Dubya's approval rating among conservative men has fallen off a cliff....and naturally liberals never did agree with Dubya... And this Schiavo carinval is just becoming a freak show that only the American media could produce!
IN SHORT, THERE IS NOTHING BUT GLOOM AMID THE HAPPY TALK......
Well, any really 'good news' should probably be reason to sell..... Income plays are starting to roll over like it's May 2004...... And if Terry Schiavo does die....I'm sure she will get a state funeral by the Bush Administration....with all and sundry in attendance denouncing the judicial branch of government........ AND THE CIRCUS CONTINUES....
Have a great holiday weekend and just turn off the news...... Try to make your March Madness into......Go Big Ten,,,,!
Plenty of time for gloom and doom next week..... stay tuned.
DUBYA PLUNGE IN APPROVAL!
The plunge of Dubya in the polls among males is interesting and ominous. Since the Schiavo debacle many men seem to have awoken to the shallowness of Dubya and the conservative program.... These guys are just jerking our chains is now the attitude of many men.
And the soaring gas price does not endear Bush to the pickup truck and SUV crowd either....I mean by now, with Saddam gone, we were told before the war that gas would be heading back to ten dollars a barrel....!
My hunch is that this is just the start of Dubya's long plunge in popularity and approval.....it's all down hill to the 2006 election.
GINGRICH.....REVISITED! HUBRIS WILL TAKE THE REPUBLICANS DOWN SOON....
Link: http://www.usatoday.com
And the soaring gas price does not endear Bush to the pickup truck and SUV crowd either....I mean by now, with Saddam gone, we were told before the war that gas would be heading back to ten dollars a barrel....!
My hunch is that this is just the start of Dubya's long plunge in popularity and approval.....it's all down hill to the 2006 election.
GINGRICH.....REVISITED! HUBRIS WILL TAKE THE REPUBLICANS DOWN SOON....
Link: http://www.usatoday.com
Thursday, March 24, 2005
THE PROBLEM OF STUPIDITY....
Many liberals are a little embarassed by the need to call some people "stupid" these days....
In the past the "liberal media" pretty much kept the "informed opinion" on top...and less enlighten views were either not expressed, or were kept on the back burner or ignored....
So for years, decades even, the liberals had a monopoly on the media message..... That has saddly come to an end.
With outlets like AM talk radio and Fox News.....less informed more jingoistic political opinions are now available on the air waves..... This has legitimized many of the oddball notions and strange ideas that were left to "bar stool" banter and hayseed back porch chat.... The problem is that with these new media, the less informed now have the Bully Pulpit and a soapbox to spread their views and notions to OTHER less informed people.
Saddly, the intellegensia are no competition for the bar stool Bubbas....and liberals and intellectuals have often abandoned the discussion rather than call their "opponents" stupid or uninformed...
And those few who have tried to take on the Bubba opinion leaders....frequently find themselves getting down in the gutter with their less informed counterparts...and resorting to a "scream fest" format.
Indeed, much of cable "news programing" is now given over to these "more interesting" shout fests....with personal attacks often substituted for real issues and clear thinking on policy. You will note that these programs are almost devoid of PhDs, serious authors or other "authorities" and experts....most of whom are considered "too boring" by the producers of the shows. To get that higher level of discussion you often have to go to BBC or PBS or specialized journals
And the right wing often fall back on Jesus or religion when backed into a corner....by who ever does take up their chanllege. Thus, "winning" Deus Ex Machina! Literally!
It is unfortunate that stupidity has been validated in this way in the US....even to the point of the election a president who is considered to be "stupid" by much of the world!
Clearly, stupidity is in nobody's best interest.... Even while the "rich" may think that they can hoodwink the less informed with wedge issues, and thus derive some short term financial gain....the long term prospects of stupidity are very limited.
Unless and until the problem of stupidity in American politics is handled....the downward spiral of public policy will continue to it's ultimate, and probably disasterous, conclusion.
In the past the "liberal media" pretty much kept the "informed opinion" on top...and less enlighten views were either not expressed, or were kept on the back burner or ignored....
So for years, decades even, the liberals had a monopoly on the media message..... That has saddly come to an end.
With outlets like AM talk radio and Fox News.....less informed more jingoistic political opinions are now available on the air waves..... This has legitimized many of the oddball notions and strange ideas that were left to "bar stool" banter and hayseed back porch chat.... The problem is that with these new media, the less informed now have the Bully Pulpit and a soapbox to spread their views and notions to OTHER less informed people.
Saddly, the intellegensia are no competition for the bar stool Bubbas....and liberals and intellectuals have often abandoned the discussion rather than call their "opponents" stupid or uninformed...
And those few who have tried to take on the Bubba opinion leaders....frequently find themselves getting down in the gutter with their less informed counterparts...and resorting to a "scream fest" format.
Indeed, much of cable "news programing" is now given over to these "more interesting" shout fests....with personal attacks often substituted for real issues and clear thinking on policy. You will note that these programs are almost devoid of PhDs, serious authors or other "authorities" and experts....most of whom are considered "too boring" by the producers of the shows. To get that higher level of discussion you often have to go to BBC or PBS or specialized journals
And the right wing often fall back on Jesus or religion when backed into a corner....by who ever does take up their chanllege. Thus, "winning" Deus Ex Machina! Literally!
It is unfortunate that stupidity has been validated in this way in the US....even to the point of the election a president who is considered to be "stupid" by much of the world!
Clearly, stupidity is in nobody's best interest.... Even while the "rich" may think that they can hoodwink the less informed with wedge issues, and thus derive some short term financial gain....the long term prospects of stupidity are very limited.
Unless and until the problem of stupidity in American politics is handled....the downward spiral of public policy will continue to it's ultimate, and probably disasterous, conclusion.
DEMOCRACY vs. TRIBALISM
Much of the Neocon doctrine is based on democratic ideals that were the outcome of the Enlightenment in Europe after a long period of feudal monarchy.
But the middle east never had an Enlightenment and never really had the same style feudalism as Europe.... If the middle east never had the European experience, how can they have a European solution.......
The middle east is filled with tribal cultures and patriarchical societies where order is maintained and legitimized DIFFERENTLY than in the west. Tribes and clans have "leadership" but it may not be elected. Yet the members of the clan or tribe may fully accept this leadership as legitimate DESPITE the lack of democratic methods.
This is why the national election in Iraq was such an oddity. People in Iraq simply were not ready for it. In retrospect a system of regional caucuses of the various tribes and clans would have produced a more legitimate government in the eyes of many in Iraq.
Or put another way....It's not about Thomas Jefferson! It's about the Magna Charta! If this experiment in the middle east fails that will be the reason.......
But the middle east never had an Enlightenment and never really had the same style feudalism as Europe.... If the middle east never had the European experience, how can they have a European solution.......
The middle east is filled with tribal cultures and patriarchical societies where order is maintained and legitimized DIFFERENTLY than in the west. Tribes and clans have "leadership" but it may not be elected. Yet the members of the clan or tribe may fully accept this leadership as legitimate DESPITE the lack of democratic methods.
This is why the national election in Iraq was such an oddity. People in Iraq simply were not ready for it. In retrospect a system of regional caucuses of the various tribes and clans would have produced a more legitimate government in the eyes of many in Iraq.
Or put another way....It's not about Thomas Jefferson! It's about the Magna Charta! If this experiment in the middle east fails that will be the reason.......
GREENSPAN'S RATE HIKE PARADOX
Curiously, the prospect of higher
interest rates is good for stocks....at least that is the conculsion you'd get by reading the pundits today.
The argument seems to be:
If Greenspan raises rates, the dollar will be bought, bonds will be well bid, and rates stay low. Indeed, that PARADOX was the big story of 2004.
THUS, HIGHER RATES IN THE US, ARE THE KEY TO GLOBAL PROSPERITY!
So, why is Greenspan being so "measured" in giving the world and the markets what they obviously want.....
Well, because it's a Catch-22.
Sooner or later, the beloved high rates, high dollar start to impact the consumption side of the economy.
People buy less, real estate becomes harder to finance.
And when consumption falls in the US, those "export economies" of China Japan and most of Asia and even Euroland fall off a cliff! Hence, all of this gloom and doom in Asia and Europe recently.......
So, as rates go up, Asia and Europe get gloomy, and they buy dollars!
And this helps the US dollar, bond market, and perhaps keeps oil prices lower.
IN SHORT, GLOBAL INVESTORS LIKE HIGHER YEILDS ON DOLLARS, BUT THAT VERY FACT REQUIRES SLOWER AMERICAN GROWTH...... WHICH THEY DON'T LIKE,
SO WHAT BENEFITS THE DOLLAR AND BONDS SHORT TERM, MAY NOT BENEFIT STOCKS IN THE LONGER RUN.
THEREFORE, A STRONG DOLLAR IS BAD FOR STOCKS BECAUSE IT MEANS HIGHER RATES ARE KICKING IN.
AND A WEAK DOLLAR IS BAD FOR STOCKS BECAUSE IT MEANS WEAKER BONDS, AND EVENTUALLY HIGHER RATES TO BOOST THE DOLLAR. That's why economics is the "dismal science!" You can't win.
But a lot of this is simply background noise in the long run....
The real issues are debt, deficits, productivity, wages and political and corporate corruption.
These core numbers and notions will trump the short term "paradoxes" eventually..... But often it takes a very long time for markets to "go rational."
And when they do it's often quite "Sudden" and you're usual "broke" from trying to figure this all out!
interest rates is good for stocks....at least that is the conculsion you'd get by reading the pundits today.
The argument seems to be:
If Greenspan raises rates, the dollar will be bought, bonds will be well bid, and rates stay low. Indeed, that PARADOX was the big story of 2004.
THUS, HIGHER RATES IN THE US, ARE THE KEY TO GLOBAL PROSPERITY!
So, why is Greenspan being so "measured" in giving the world and the markets what they obviously want.....
Well, because it's a Catch-22.
Sooner or later, the beloved high rates, high dollar start to impact the consumption side of the economy.
People buy less, real estate becomes harder to finance.
And when consumption falls in the US, those "export economies" of China Japan and most of Asia and even Euroland fall off a cliff! Hence, all of this gloom and doom in Asia and Europe recently.......
So, as rates go up, Asia and Europe get gloomy, and they buy dollars!
And this helps the US dollar, bond market, and perhaps keeps oil prices lower.
IN SHORT, GLOBAL INVESTORS LIKE HIGHER YEILDS ON DOLLARS, BUT THAT VERY FACT REQUIRES SLOWER AMERICAN GROWTH...... WHICH THEY DON'T LIKE,
SO WHAT BENEFITS THE DOLLAR AND BONDS SHORT TERM, MAY NOT BENEFIT STOCKS IN THE LONGER RUN.
THEREFORE, A STRONG DOLLAR IS BAD FOR STOCKS BECAUSE IT MEANS HIGHER RATES ARE KICKING IN.
AND A WEAK DOLLAR IS BAD FOR STOCKS BECAUSE IT MEANS WEAKER BONDS, AND EVENTUALLY HIGHER RATES TO BOOST THE DOLLAR. That's why economics is the "dismal science!" You can't win.
But a lot of this is simply background noise in the long run....
The real issues are debt, deficits, productivity, wages and political and corporate corruption.
These core numbers and notions will trump the short term "paradoxes" eventually..... But often it takes a very long time for markets to "go rational."
And when they do it's often quite "Sudden" and you're usual "broke" from trying to figure this all out!
KYRGYZSTAN: LATEST BUSH DOCTRINE EXPERIMENT?
The world seems to be falling apart....as a result of Bush/Neocon policies.
Some of this is being encouraged by the Neocon policy, and some of it seems to be the result of historical trends. Could Kyrgyzstan be the next to fall?
The collapse of the bi-polar world of the cold war has unleashed many old ethnic tensions that were always there, but just under the surface.
And this paradigm shift has de-legitimized many of the "old regimes" that were set up under cold war conditions.
The effort by Bush and the Neocons to "democratize" the world after 911 is playing a major role in creating this "new world order."
But it is a very dangerous game indeed......! Consider;
Most of the world now has strongly divided political structures under the new Bush Doctrine. .......Alas, even inside the US!
Indeed, the goal of the Neocon-Bush Doctrine seems to be to foster instability!
New elites are rising all over the world, and the old elites are fighting back.
And the world is a much more "tribal" place under the new Bush/Neocon "divide to conquer" geo-politics.
The problem is that there are no gaurantees that this approach will lead to pro-American results, or even to democratic results.
Indeed, in Iraq and in much of the middle east there seems to be more hostility toward the US than ever.
So far, most of this instability has been encouraged and fostered in the old Soviet Bloc, or in Soviet client states of the cold war era.....
From Ukraine to Syria, old friends of Moscow are slowly being "democratized" and/or destabilized by US foreign policy.
But there is a new dynamic present with the rise of radical Islam.
And ominously, Osama and his radical Islamists are exploiting nearly every situation set up by Bush and the Neocons.
Moscow MAY suffer from the Neocon "democratization? "
But, Osama WILL be waiting to pick up the pieces in most cases.....!
That's why so much of the Bush Doctrine appears to be "playing into the hands" of Osama and the radical Islamists......!
Only time will tell......but democracy is a two edge sword. And "mob rule" is also a possible outcome in places that are less "enlightened" than the west would like to believe.
Some of this is being encouraged by the Neocon policy, and some of it seems to be the result of historical trends. Could Kyrgyzstan be the next to fall?
The collapse of the bi-polar world of the cold war has unleashed many old ethnic tensions that were always there, but just under the surface.
And this paradigm shift has de-legitimized many of the "old regimes" that were set up under cold war conditions.
The effort by Bush and the Neocons to "democratize" the world after 911 is playing a major role in creating this "new world order."
But it is a very dangerous game indeed......! Consider;
Most of the world now has strongly divided political structures under the new Bush Doctrine. .......Alas, even inside the US!
Indeed, the goal of the Neocon-Bush Doctrine seems to be to foster instability!
New elites are rising all over the world, and the old elites are fighting back.
And the world is a much more "tribal" place under the new Bush/Neocon "divide to conquer" geo-politics.
The problem is that there are no gaurantees that this approach will lead to pro-American results, or even to democratic results.
Indeed, in Iraq and in much of the middle east there seems to be more hostility toward the US than ever.
So far, most of this instability has been encouraged and fostered in the old Soviet Bloc, or in Soviet client states of the cold war era.....
From Ukraine to Syria, old friends of Moscow are slowly being "democratized" and/or destabilized by US foreign policy.
But there is a new dynamic present with the rise of radical Islam.
And ominously, Osama and his radical Islamists are exploiting nearly every situation set up by Bush and the Neocons.
Moscow MAY suffer from the Neocon "democratization? "
But, Osama WILL be waiting to pick up the pieces in most cases.....!
That's why so much of the Bush Doctrine appears to be "playing into the hands" of Osama and the radical Islamists......!
Only time will tell......but democracy is a two edge sword. And "mob rule" is also a possible outcome in places that are less "enlightened" than the west would like to believe.
Wednesday, March 23, 2005
MASSIVE PLUNGE IN COMMODITIES!
Are you surprised....? I'm not. Perhaps Central Bank plunge protection at work....? See link.
REFINERY EXPLOSION....WAS IT TERRORISM?
Wouldn't you know it..... The American consumer can't catch a break. Now what....? $3 gas...? This does not appear to be a "minor" accident....it could seriously impact the market tomorrow...especially if BP loses substantial refinery capacity as appears to be the case on the news wires...... stay tuned.
JEB SAYS TERRY IS AWARE AND CONSCIOUS! CIRCUS CONTINUES.....
Jeb has "found something" new about Terry! ..... Yeah well consider the source..... more later
BREAD AND CIRCUSES.....THE FIRST 100 DAYS.
Dubya and the Republicans have been providing the American public with a steady diet of "Bread and Circuses" during their first 100 days of the second term...... But of course, without the bread! Since that type of "welfare subsidy" might be bad for the moral fiber of the laboring classes.....and impair their incentive to work harder...
Still with all this talk about the "right to medical treatment" you'd think that working uninsured folks, who are not "vegetables," would deserve a little righteous indignation from the Bush Family....about the plight of the uninsured.
Still with all this talk about the "right to medical treatment" you'd think that working uninsured folks, who are not "vegetables," would deserve a little righteous indignation from the Bush Family....about the plight of the uninsured.
BONDS PLUNGE....ALSO BAD FOR STOCKS?
A 5% ten year bond could be bad for stocks..... All yield instruments could be in for "interesting times" soon.....
GOLD SELL DOWN FINALLY WORKING.....?
The big push against Gold finally seems to be "kicking in" on the rest of the commodity sector. Notch one up for the central banks.....
The question is whether this is temporary profit taking by speculators, or a new trend.... I would seriously doubt it's a new trend, there are just too many negatives out there for a plunge in commodities to take hold...long term.
But at least now the market can "breathe."
The chart in the link is interesting.... EVERYTHING SOLD OFF BIG TIME TODAY! EVERY COMMODITY PLUNGED! IT'S SOooooo FAKE! BUT WHAT CAN YOU DO? THIS IS A VERY VERY RARE CHART PATTERN AND IT LIKELY MEANS THAT SOME KIND OF "INTERVENTION" IS AFOOT.....
THE CENTRAL BANKS HAVE A JOB TO DO.....AND IT LOOKS LIKE "PLUNGE PROTECTION" WAS IN THERE PROTECTING THE DOLLAR TODAY....LOL
The question is whether this is temporary profit taking by speculators, or a new trend.... I would seriously doubt it's a new trend, there are just too many negatives out there for a plunge in commodities to take hold...long term.
But at least now the market can "breathe."
The chart in the link is interesting.... EVERYTHING SOLD OFF BIG TIME TODAY! EVERY COMMODITY PLUNGED! IT'S SOooooo FAKE! BUT WHAT CAN YOU DO? THIS IS A VERY VERY RARE CHART PATTERN AND IT LIKELY MEANS THAT SOME KIND OF "INTERVENTION" IS AFOOT.....
THE CENTRAL BANKS HAVE A JOB TO DO.....AND IT LOOKS LIKE "PLUNGE PROTECTION" WAS IN THERE PROTECTING THE DOLLAR TODAY....LOL
IF YOU CAN'T WIN IT, SPIN IT.....
I have a feeling that everytime some Iraqi business man or property owner shoots an "AliBabba" (thief) robbing his store.... that it will now be reported IN THE US MEDIA as:
IRAQI PEOPLE FINALLY FIGHT BACK AGAINST THE INSURGENTS! ..... lol.
But the use of Saddam's commandos today against the "training camp" was interesting....
Still, you have to wonder if the whole Bush plan nowadays is to get Iraqis killing other Iraqis.....
And then call THAT a victory for the Neocons....? This thing is still way way out of control......
IRAQI PEOPLE FINALLY FIGHT BACK AGAINST THE INSURGENTS! ..... lol.
But the use of Saddam's commandos today against the "training camp" was interesting....
Still, you have to wonder if the whole Bush plan nowadays is to get Iraqis killing other Iraqis.....
And then call THAT a victory for the Neocons....? This thing is still way way out of control......
SOME OIL RELIEF OR JUST A PAUSE...?
Oil backed off yesterday.....so maybe $3 gas will not come this summer?
But I'm looking for a smaller 4 cylinder car now anyway..... Why drive a 6 or 8 cylinder car at these gas prices.
Perhaps people will start buying cars the old fashion way: "Runabouts" for in the city errands. And bigger "Touring Cars" for longer distance travel? For short trips in the city a smaller car would seem more logical.....cost-wise and it's easier to park in small spaces!
Could 2005 be the 1970's re-visited!
But I'm looking for a smaller 4 cylinder car now anyway..... Why drive a 6 or 8 cylinder car at these gas prices.
Perhaps people will start buying cars the old fashion way: "Runabouts" for in the city errands. And bigger "Touring Cars" for longer distance travel? For short trips in the city a smaller car would seem more logical.....cost-wise and it's easier to park in small spaces!
Could 2005 be the 1970's re-visited!
BYE BYE RE-FI....
Re-Fi's and mortgage applicaitons plunge!
And so it starts the drip drip drip of reality seeping into the neo-bubble economy
And so it starts the drip drip drip of reality seeping into the neo-bubble economy
THE MINDLESS AND THE BRAINLESS
Terry Schaivo may not have a mind....
But the Right to Lifers, like Tom Delay, don't seem to have a brain....
The Schaivo case should be cause for some serious discussion on end of life issues in Kongress.
But of course Kongress never discusses anything WITHOUT BEING PAID FIRST! And that is the great tragedy of the American people today. Simply that the elites really don't care. It's all political theater now....the looting is in it's final stages.
But the Right to Lifers, like Tom Delay, don't seem to have a brain....
The Schaivo case should be cause for some serious discussion on end of life issues in Kongress.
But of course Kongress never discusses anything WITHOUT BEING PAID FIRST! And that is the great tragedy of the American people today. Simply that the elites really don't care. It's all political theater now....the looting is in it's final stages.
SHARON WILL NEVER GIVE UP THE WEST BANK
The NYTimes says today:
"Israel can't simply exchange Gaza for more settlements in the West Bank. There is no realistic substitute for a negotiated resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, and such a pact will never happen without Israeli withdrawal of most of its settlements."
Well that is the whole problem isn't it?
Sharon will never give up the West Bank no matter what.....
If Dubya and the Necons want to Conquer the Empire of Islam to "help" Sharon's takeover of the West Bank...great.
If Dubya runs out of money and troops...great. Sharon doesn't care.
It really makes no difference to Sharon and the Likud what Dubya wants....The West Bank will be part of Greater Israel. That is simply non-negotiable.
The US government and military can chase the "evil ones" all over the world and it won't change anything....Israel is going to keep the West Bank.
I just wish that the Likud would expell the Arabs straightaway so we can move on to the Geopolitical End Game sooner rather than later...... And before the US treasury is completely empty!
"Israel can't simply exchange Gaza for more settlements in the West Bank. There is no realistic substitute for a negotiated resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, and such a pact will never happen without Israeli withdrawal of most of its settlements."
Well that is the whole problem isn't it?
Sharon will never give up the West Bank no matter what.....
If Dubya and the Necons want to Conquer the Empire of Islam to "help" Sharon's takeover of the West Bank...great.
If Dubya runs out of money and troops...great. Sharon doesn't care.
It really makes no difference to Sharon and the Likud what Dubya wants....The West Bank will be part of Greater Israel. That is simply non-negotiable.
The US government and military can chase the "evil ones" all over the world and it won't change anything....Israel is going to keep the West Bank.
I just wish that the Likud would expell the Arabs straightaway so we can move on to the Geopolitical End Game sooner rather than later...... And before the US treasury is completely empty!
FORGET RETIREMENT....WORK TILL YOU DROP
The notion of people working
well into their 70's and 80's is new.
But with the decline of company pensions and punk 401ks and now with the Republican attempt to cripple Social Security many people will be forced to stay in the labor market.
The consequences of this trend is still unclear. Will older workers compete with younger workers for scarce low wage no benefit jobs? Clearly it benefits corporations to have as big a labor pool as possible to keep wages low.
But what about consumption? The role of the consumer in the economy is huge, yet it is seldom even on the radar screen at the Fed or in Washington.
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE AMERICAN CONSUMER CAN NOT BE STOPPED MAY BE THE BIGGEST FALLACY IN CURRENT THINKING AT THE FED AND IN CONGRESS.
We are seeing the tip of that iceburg with gas prices now.....slowly the American consumer will pull back. And that could be the big story of late 2005 and 2005.
Because, in an economic environment that is ALL FOR CAPITAL, BUT NOT ONE RED CENT FOR THE CONSUMER....
You can just forget about retirement.....THAT is soooo 20th Century!
well into their 70's and 80's is new.
But with the decline of company pensions and punk 401ks and now with the Republican attempt to cripple Social Security many people will be forced to stay in the labor market.
The consequences of this trend is still unclear. Will older workers compete with younger workers for scarce low wage no benefit jobs? Clearly it benefits corporations to have as big a labor pool as possible to keep wages low.
But what about consumption? The role of the consumer in the economy is huge, yet it is seldom even on the radar screen at the Fed or in Washington.
THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE AMERICAN CONSUMER CAN NOT BE STOPPED MAY BE THE BIGGEST FALLACY IN CURRENT THINKING AT THE FED AND IN CONGRESS.
We are seeing the tip of that iceburg with gas prices now.....slowly the American consumer will pull back. And that could be the big story of late 2005 and 2005.
Because, in an economic environment that is ALL FOR CAPITAL, BUT NOT ONE RED CENT FOR THE CONSUMER....
You can just forget about retirement.....THAT is soooo 20th Century!
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
ARE INCOME PLAYS ROLLING OVER AGAIN....?
If you look at charts of most "income plays," they seem to be rolling over again just like they did last May. See BLE in the link just as an example....
Clearly, the doomsday scenario of last May was avoided somehow. Remember there was talk of the carry trades unwinding and a coming "bond crash"....well that didn't happen; it was all another head fake.
But, is it a head fake this time.....?
Clearly the "bond crash" of last spring had an escape hatche available to it. Central Banks in Asia came to the rescue.
But now there are even more ominous problems with debt, deficits and the dollar. And rates are going up in the US at a "likely measured pace," but it is a relentless measured pace to be sure.
Whether there will be a true crash in income instruments will depend on the state of the bond market....if it really does tank this time....? Closed End Funds and other income plays could get hammered badly....like they were supposed to last May.
But the downward trend is established for Closed Ends now....will it continue?
And if so....when will it cause large scale dumping of bonds and other income plays?
Stay tuned......this could get interesting.
Clearly, the doomsday scenario of last May was avoided somehow. Remember there was talk of the carry trades unwinding and a coming "bond crash"....well that didn't happen; it was all another head fake.
But, is it a head fake this time.....?
Clearly the "bond crash" of last spring had an escape hatche available to it. Central Banks in Asia came to the rescue.
But now there are even more ominous problems with debt, deficits and the dollar. And rates are going up in the US at a "likely measured pace," but it is a relentless measured pace to be sure.
Whether there will be a true crash in income instruments will depend on the state of the bond market....if it really does tank this time....? Closed End Funds and other income plays could get hammered badly....like they were supposed to last May.
But the downward trend is established for Closed Ends now....will it continue?
And if so....when will it cause large scale dumping of bonds and other income plays?
Stay tuned......this could get interesting.
THE FED STATEMENT....
Here's the bad part in the Fed statement:
"With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability."
Clearly the Fed has set up a possibility for a 50 bp hike with the "Nonetheless....." sentence. Noting that the committee will "respond" to "changes" to fulfill it's obligation for "price stbility."
And that means protection of the dollar to avoid oil prices rising out of control.....
All and all the "measured pace" language is getting a little shop worn..... And this market is so dependant on Fed policy to sustain it that it seems that a sub 10,000 Dow later this year is almost a certainty.
AND WHAT DOES "LIKELY TO BE MEASURED" MEAN.....? THAT LEAVES A BIG HOLE IN THE WALL STREET ARGUMENT THAT THE FED WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF THE SAME....!
"With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability."
Clearly the Fed has set up a possibility for a 50 bp hike with the "Nonetheless....." sentence. Noting that the committee will "respond" to "changes" to fulfill it's obligation for "price stbility."
And that means protection of the dollar to avoid oil prices rising out of control.....
All and all the "measured pace" language is getting a little shop worn..... And this market is so dependant on Fed policy to sustain it that it seems that a sub 10,000 Dow later this year is almost a certainty.
AND WHAT DOES "LIKELY TO BE MEASURED" MEAN.....? THAT LEAVES A BIG HOLE IN THE WALL STREET ARGUMENT THAT THE FED WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE OF THE SAME....!
SHINDLERS PISSED....!
Everyone should be outraged that the Schaivo case has made it to the level of an international incident....these things are usually handled in a dignified way by families and hospitals that does not turn them into media Freak Shows or Political Circuses!
How sad really that the Right to Lifers and politicos like Tom Delay have seen fit to make a political statement at the expense of someone's personal privacy and family tragedy. I blame Tom Delay for this fiasco....
I have suggested that this could be a "Mc Carthyism Moment" for the Religious Right.... The disgust that the public will feel after this whole matter is over will surely taint any argument that the Religious Right would make on other moral issues.
In effect, the Schaivo case has become the "missing WMD" for the right wing domestic agenda.
But, of course, anything to avoid talking about the real issues like health care and jobs....!
How sad really that the Right to Lifers and politicos like Tom Delay have seen fit to make a political statement at the expense of someone's personal privacy and family tragedy. I blame Tom Delay for this fiasco....
I have suggested that this could be a "Mc Carthyism Moment" for the Religious Right.... The disgust that the public will feel after this whole matter is over will surely taint any argument that the Religious Right would make on other moral issues.
In effect, the Schaivo case has become the "missing WMD" for the right wing domestic agenda.
But, of course, anything to avoid talking about the real issues like health care and jobs....!
DUBYA ISN'T PERFECT....ONLY 'SAVED.'
The real issue is:
When will the Bubba Republicans in the red states wake up and realize that they have been played for suckers by all of this Republican Gay Bashing and Vote for Jesus nonsense.....
Hopefully, soon. Because the looting is going into hyper-overdrive now and there is really very little left that is salvageable in the US economy.
Delay wants to "save Terry" even while 50 million are out of the loop for health care in the US. What a hypocrite!
And worse, the Washington/Wall Street looters are blocking off the "exits" now with tort reform and bankruptcy reform....! Just like those sweatshop owners that chain the doors shut just before a fire breaks out.
The colossal stupidity of the Bubba Republicans will only be further highlighted as Dubya II continues to it's disasterous end. But amazingly many Bubba Republicans will fall back on their mantra: Dubya is not perfect, but at least he's 'saved.'
Stupidity and Corruption on this level are surely being noticed by the markets. Hence the collapse of the dollar and the rise of oil......
Jesus will have to "save" the American Republic soon. Wake up Bubba.....
When will the Bubba Republicans in the red states wake up and realize that they have been played for suckers by all of this Republican Gay Bashing and Vote for Jesus nonsense.....
Hopefully, soon. Because the looting is going into hyper-overdrive now and there is really very little left that is salvageable in the US economy.
Delay wants to "save Terry" even while 50 million are out of the loop for health care in the US. What a hypocrite!
And worse, the Washington/Wall Street looters are blocking off the "exits" now with tort reform and bankruptcy reform....! Just like those sweatshop owners that chain the doors shut just before a fire breaks out.
The colossal stupidity of the Bubba Republicans will only be further highlighted as Dubya II continues to it's disasterous end. But amazingly many Bubba Republicans will fall back on their mantra: Dubya is not perfect, but at least he's 'saved.'
Stupidity and Corruption on this level are surely being noticed by the markets. Hence the collapse of the dollar and the rise of oil......
Jesus will have to "save" the American Republic soon. Wake up Bubba.....
SAD SONGS AT THE FED CAFE......
The Fed is treating the markets with kid gloves...the notion being that after a period of intense stimulous Wall Street "can't handle" any bad news from the Fed.
Hence, this bizarre period of extreme predictability wherein rates go up 25 BP at every meeting. But is this really helping the market? Because if everyone knows that rates are going up...why would anyone "hold" bonds? Furthermore, to achieve historical "normalcy" the Fed Funds rate is going to have to rise to much higher levels than they are now..... So why hold stocks?
The background to all of the "normalcy" is a very abnormal oil market, which it could be argued was caused by the Feds hyper-liquidity attempt to "save the bubble," or at least save the stock options of the CEOs after the Crash of 2000.
But, with oil now "off the charts," the Fed may have to do more that just return to normal levels of liquidity.....it's possible that oil will require the "1970's Treatment," and rates will have to go higher than normal for a period to convince the markets that the Fed is serious about a strong dollar.....
And then, there is the trade deficit which, like the crazy aunt in the attic, nobody even talks about anymore....at least in the US. But the US deficits are ALL OVER the Euroland papers and in the British FT....
And so it goes, more sad songs from the Fed Cafe.....stay tuned. Because this could be interesting....later today.
....Or not.
Hence, this bizarre period of extreme predictability wherein rates go up 25 BP at every meeting. But is this really helping the market? Because if everyone knows that rates are going up...why would anyone "hold" bonds? Furthermore, to achieve historical "normalcy" the Fed Funds rate is going to have to rise to much higher levels than they are now..... So why hold stocks?
The background to all of the "normalcy" is a very abnormal oil market, which it could be argued was caused by the Feds hyper-liquidity attempt to "save the bubble," or at least save the stock options of the CEOs after the Crash of 2000.
But, with oil now "off the charts," the Fed may have to do more that just return to normal levels of liquidity.....it's possible that oil will require the "1970's Treatment," and rates will have to go higher than normal for a period to convince the markets that the Fed is serious about a strong dollar.....
And then, there is the trade deficit which, like the crazy aunt in the attic, nobody even talks about anymore....at least in the US. But the US deficits are ALL OVER the Euroland papers and in the British FT....
And so it goes, more sad songs from the Fed Cafe.....stay tuned. Because this could be interesting....later today.
....Or not.
Monday, March 21, 2005
DRIVING DOWN DEMON GOLD!
The action today in oil and gold is interesting especially coming on the eve of the Fed Meeting.....
Oil up nearing $58! But, Gold down BIG! .....DOWN DEMON GOLD!
Driving down gold is a good way to "save the dollar"....at least that's the old style conventional wisdom.
....and if you save the dollar you stop the rise of oil in theory.
...Ergo....Down Demon Gold! Well, maybe.....it might work for a while....but long term the structural problems in the US are just too much to handle...
Oil up nearing $58! But, Gold down BIG! .....DOWN DEMON GOLD!
Driving down gold is a good way to "save the dollar"....at least that's the old style conventional wisdom.
....and if you save the dollar you stop the rise of oil in theory.
...Ergo....Down Demon Gold! Well, maybe.....it might work for a while....but long term the structural problems in the US are just too much to handle...
Terry Schaivo, vegetative states and 'false consciousness'
The human mind is extremely complex
and this thing we call "consciousness" is often very hard to define. Yet, most people would say that they "are" their "conscious mind".......whatever that is.
In the case of brain damaged people, the brain can be very scrambled....and various odd cognitive states can occur, and not all of them are what we would normally call true consciousness.
The higher cortex of the brain is really where the "me" resides.
The lower brain stem functions are where bodily functions are controlled, and also some very basic "reptilian" emotions......fright and flight, happy and sad, angry and content. But emotions are very complex things....yet, to most of us they are intimately attached to the "me'" parts of the higher brain.
But sometimes bad things happen, and what "appears" to be true emotion from a semi-conscious person, is really what I would call a "false consciousness."
Many people observing this phenomenon "project" their own feelings and emotions onto other person. People do this with their pets all the time.
My dog is "happy" to see me. Everyone at the office looks "angry." Terry Schiavo "cried."
By and large, unless emotion is "verified" by some other conscious cognitive action.....in the case of brain damaged people, it is not likely to be a "true emotion" from the person themselves. But something lower down the brain stem mimicing an "emotion."
Many persons in vegetative states can appear to express very deep "emotion." They really do "cry" and "laugh!"
BUT ALL OTHER COGNITIVE CONFIRMING DATA ARE MISSING OR UNEXPRESSED......
And this is THE KEY to whether these are real emotions, or merely brain stem pseudo-consciousness that we all have "working just under the surface."
I personally do not think that Terri Schaivo is truly "conscious," or that "her person" is in her body at this point. Her parents are just deluding themselves.....
Yes, there is "something there." But no, it is NOT THE PERSON of Terri Schaivo.....it is merely that "shadowland" of brain function that is usually behind the scenes when all of the other senses are functioning properly.
In vegetative states many strange mental states are possible.
Indeed, even in walking talking people with severe brain damage....bizarre states of cognition can be seen. Some people "see" only on their right side. Others can "write," but not read what they have written! Others have delusions that are all out of step with reality but are otherwise normal. In short, there are many many ways to lose contact with conscious reality....and in many cases the people so suffering are in fact quite "conscious." Even more "conscious" than Ms. Schaivo.
The word "coma" comes from the Latin for "hair,"....hence our word "comb," and it generally refers to a person trapped in a cloud-like netherworld of being....where nothing is real, but yet something is percieved....sound, movement, voices.
Persons in deep coma are really in a "waking state of sleep." Or a "sleeping state of wakefullness....?"
In the Schaivo case, her parents are only prolonging the suffering of their daughter.....as she is in a state of mindless wakefulness that is a fate far worse than the "dreamless sleep" of death....
As someone once wisely said: THERE ARE WORSE THINGS THAN DEATH IN THIS WORLD.....
And Terri Schaivo is living that fate everyday.....
and this thing we call "consciousness" is often very hard to define. Yet, most people would say that they "are" their "conscious mind".......whatever that is.
In the case of brain damaged people, the brain can be very scrambled....and various odd cognitive states can occur, and not all of them are what we would normally call true consciousness.
The higher cortex of the brain is really where the "me" resides.
The lower brain stem functions are where bodily functions are controlled, and also some very basic "reptilian" emotions......fright and flight, happy and sad, angry and content. But emotions are very complex things....yet, to most of us they are intimately attached to the "me'" parts of the higher brain.
But sometimes bad things happen, and what "appears" to be true emotion from a semi-conscious person, is really what I would call a "false consciousness."
Many people observing this phenomenon "project" their own feelings and emotions onto other person. People do this with their pets all the time.
My dog is "happy" to see me. Everyone at the office looks "angry." Terry Schiavo "cried."
By and large, unless emotion is "verified" by some other conscious cognitive action.....in the case of brain damaged people, it is not likely to be a "true emotion" from the person themselves. But something lower down the brain stem mimicing an "emotion."
Many persons in vegetative states can appear to express very deep "emotion." They really do "cry" and "laugh!"
BUT ALL OTHER COGNITIVE CONFIRMING DATA ARE MISSING OR UNEXPRESSED......
And this is THE KEY to whether these are real emotions, or merely brain stem pseudo-consciousness that we all have "working just under the surface."
I personally do not think that Terri Schaivo is truly "conscious," or that "her person" is in her body at this point. Her parents are just deluding themselves.....
Yes, there is "something there." But no, it is NOT THE PERSON of Terri Schaivo.....it is merely that "shadowland" of brain function that is usually behind the scenes when all of the other senses are functioning properly.
In vegetative states many strange mental states are possible.
Indeed, even in walking talking people with severe brain damage....bizarre states of cognition can be seen. Some people "see" only on their right side. Others can "write," but not read what they have written! Others have delusions that are all out of step with reality but are otherwise normal. In short, there are many many ways to lose contact with conscious reality....and in many cases the people so suffering are in fact quite "conscious." Even more "conscious" than Ms. Schaivo.
The word "coma" comes from the Latin for "hair,"....hence our word "comb," and it generally refers to a person trapped in a cloud-like netherworld of being....where nothing is real, but yet something is percieved....sound, movement, voices.
Persons in deep coma are really in a "waking state of sleep." Or a "sleeping state of wakefullness....?"
In the Schaivo case, her parents are only prolonging the suffering of their daughter.....as she is in a state of mindless wakefulness that is a fate far worse than the "dreamless sleep" of death....
As someone once wisely said: THERE ARE WORSE THINGS THAN DEATH IN THIS WORLD.....
And Terri Schaivo is living that fate everyday.....
Sunday, March 20, 2005
CONGRESS/SCHIAVO THEATER OF THE ABSURD
The Congressional action in
the Terry Schaivo case is becoming like bad theater of the absurd.
Decisions on life and death are made everyday in the emergency rooms and intensive care units of American hospitals ----WITHOUT AN ACT OF CONGRESS!
Indeed, the Right to Life crowd seems to be having their "McCarthy Moment."
As when commie-hunter, Sen. Joe McCarthy, finally was exposed for the fraud and faker that he truly was.
Likewise, Right to Life may have seriously overstepped their bounds in the Schaivo case.....
Few people would call Terri Schiavo's semi-conscieous vegetative state "living." And few would want it for themselves or a loved one.
The problem is that with modern medical procedures, sometimes a "good death" is very hard to come by. There are machines now that can perform most bodily functions, even in the morbidly ill.
But, merely "oxygenating tissue" is not really living.......
At some point in the decline of the human body the organs that are failing, must simply be allowed to fail.....
Oddly, it is advanced science, so hated by the religious right, that is causing the problems of a prolonged "existence," without prolonging a good life.....or even are "real life." Few would call a vegetative state "living."
So with health care quickly draining the national wealth,.....the issue of a person's RIGHT TO DIE may be more important that their RIGHT TO LIFE......
AND, THE SCHAIVO CASE COULD BE THE STRAW THAT BREAKS THE BACK FOR THE RADICAL PRO LIFE CROWD.
JUST AS "OVER THE TOP" McCARTHYISM EVENTUALLY SOURED AMERICANS ON THE ANTI-COMMUNIST WITCH HUNTS OF THE 1950's......!
the Terry Schaivo case is becoming like bad theater of the absurd.
Decisions on life and death are made everyday in the emergency rooms and intensive care units of American hospitals ----WITHOUT AN ACT OF CONGRESS!
Indeed, the Right to Life crowd seems to be having their "McCarthy Moment."
As when commie-hunter, Sen. Joe McCarthy, finally was exposed for the fraud and faker that he truly was.
Likewise, Right to Life may have seriously overstepped their bounds in the Schaivo case.....
Few people would call Terri Schiavo's semi-conscieous vegetative state "living." And few would want it for themselves or a loved one.
The problem is that with modern medical procedures, sometimes a "good death" is very hard to come by. There are machines now that can perform most bodily functions, even in the morbidly ill.
But, merely "oxygenating tissue" is not really living.......
At some point in the decline of the human body the organs that are failing, must simply be allowed to fail.....
Oddly, it is advanced science, so hated by the religious right, that is causing the problems of a prolonged "existence," without prolonging a good life.....or even are "real life." Few would call a vegetative state "living."
So with health care quickly draining the national wealth,.....the issue of a person's RIGHT TO DIE may be more important that their RIGHT TO LIFE......
AND, THE SCHAIVO CASE COULD BE THE STRAW THAT BREAKS THE BACK FOR THE RADICAL PRO LIFE CROWD.
JUST AS "OVER THE TOP" McCARTHYISM EVENTUALLY SOURED AMERICANS ON THE ANTI-COMMUNIST WITCH HUNTS OF THE 1950's......!
ARE DRONES USELESS.....?
Maureen "queen bee" Dowd opines in the NYTimes today.....
"Size matters, so some experts have suggested that in 10 million years or even much sooner - 100,000 years - men could disappear, taking Maxim magazine, March Madness and cold pizza in the morning with them."
Are men useless....or worse an absolute disadvantage to the survival of the species?
Actually there is some evidence for this being true!
INSECTS!
Insects, "bugs" to Dubya voters, have been around for hundreds of millions of years. Humans on the other hand are relative new comers on the Tree of Life.
OMINOUSLY, MANY SPECIES OF INSECTS HAVE COMPLETELY MARGINALIZED THE ROLE OF THE MALE!
In the case of bees, the male "drone" lays around the hive all summer, until it's time for his "one time" mating flight with the new queen bee.....then, when winter comes, ALL the drones are kicked out of the hive...to die! We see similar patterns in our divorce courts today!
Also, drones do not work! (Right Maureen?) They just lay about the hive in case "something'" needs fertilizing..... All of the honey gathering, cell building and hive clean up is done by the female "worker" bees!
And a similar patter is found in many other insect species.....! Males are really quite useless...except for mating. And I'm sure most of Dowd's readers would agree with this notion...even some men!
So all males take notice:
Straighten up! Because in another 100 million years.....you're probably EXTINCT!
"Size matters, so some experts have suggested that in 10 million years or even much sooner - 100,000 years - men could disappear, taking Maxim magazine, March Madness and cold pizza in the morning with them."
Are men useless....or worse an absolute disadvantage to the survival of the species?
Actually there is some evidence for this being true!
INSECTS!
Insects, "bugs" to Dubya voters, have been around for hundreds of millions of years. Humans on the other hand are relative new comers on the Tree of Life.
OMINOUSLY, MANY SPECIES OF INSECTS HAVE COMPLETELY MARGINALIZED THE ROLE OF THE MALE!
In the case of bees, the male "drone" lays around the hive all summer, until it's time for his "one time" mating flight with the new queen bee.....then, when winter comes, ALL the drones are kicked out of the hive...to die! We see similar patterns in our divorce courts today!
Also, drones do not work! (Right Maureen?) They just lay about the hive in case "something'" needs fertilizing..... All of the honey gathering, cell building and hive clean up is done by the female "worker" bees!
And a similar patter is found in many other insect species.....! Males are really quite useless...except for mating. And I'm sure most of Dowd's readers would agree with this notion...even some men!
So all males take notice:
Straighten up! Because in another 100 million years.....you're probably EXTINCT!
SISTANI MIDWIFE TO CHAOS.....PLAYS DUBYA FOR A FOOL
Tom Friedman writes in todays NYTimes:
"It was Mr. Sistani who insisted that there had to be a direct national election in Iraq, rejecting the original goofy U.S. proposal for regional caucuses. It was Mr. Sistani who insisted that the elections not be postponed in the face of the Baathist-fascist insurgency. And it was Mr. Sistani who ordered Shiites not to retaliate for the Sunni Baathist and jihadist attempts to drag them into a civil war by attacking Shiite mosques and massacring Shiite civilians."
Friedman's notion, apparently serious, that Sistani be given the Nobel Peace Prize is interesting because there is a tradition of giving the prize to questionable people "in hopes" that it will make them "behave."
Most of these "angels" to American/Western foreign policy have been people who have accepted the American ideal of "how things should be" in their respective countries.
The US pushed for reform in South Africa, and Mandela was there for them when the old elite fell. So too in Russia, the US cold war was all about "regime change" in the USSR.....and someone rose to the occasion to fill the power vacuum thus created.
Now, with Sistani we have a old "holy man" who has played Dubya & Chums for fools right from the very beginning.
Sistani wanted "national elections," not regional caucuses, because he knew the Shia would win big...and they did. Now there is a so-called "government" in Iraq that can not, and will never govern!
The Sunni are almost completely out of the loop....or fighting an insurgency against the US backed "new elite."
South Africa and Russia are not Iraq. South Africa and Russia were not invaded by "The Great Satan." Reform by peaceful means is one thing...Reform by a violent "illegal" and hamfisted invasion is something else......
Sistani is patient and wise old man...he knows what he wants and he knows how to get it...... I wish I could say the same about Bush and the Neocons.
"It was Mr. Sistani who insisted that there had to be a direct national election in Iraq, rejecting the original goofy U.S. proposal for regional caucuses. It was Mr. Sistani who insisted that the elections not be postponed in the face of the Baathist-fascist insurgency. And it was Mr. Sistani who ordered Shiites not to retaliate for the Sunni Baathist and jihadist attempts to drag them into a civil war by attacking Shiite mosques and massacring Shiite civilians."
Friedman's notion, apparently serious, that Sistani be given the Nobel Peace Prize is interesting because there is a tradition of giving the prize to questionable people "in hopes" that it will make them "behave."
Most of these "angels" to American/Western foreign policy have been people who have accepted the American ideal of "how things should be" in their respective countries.
The US pushed for reform in South Africa, and Mandela was there for them when the old elite fell. So too in Russia, the US cold war was all about "regime change" in the USSR.....and someone rose to the occasion to fill the power vacuum thus created.
Now, with Sistani we have a old "holy man" who has played Dubya & Chums for fools right from the very beginning.
Sistani wanted "national elections," not regional caucuses, because he knew the Shia would win big...and they did. Now there is a so-called "government" in Iraq that can not, and will never govern!
The Sunni are almost completely out of the loop....or fighting an insurgency against the US backed "new elite."
South Africa and Russia are not Iraq. South Africa and Russia were not invaded by "The Great Satan." Reform by peaceful means is one thing...Reform by a violent "illegal" and hamfisted invasion is something else......
Sistani is patient and wise old man...he knows what he wants and he knows how to get it...... I wish I could say the same about Bush and the Neocons.
Saturday, March 19, 2005
DAVID'S GOOFBALL DOOMSDAY SCENARIO
David Brooks in the NYTimes today writes:
"Tax increases on that scale would decimate the economy. Benefit cuts would cause pain. Doing nothing would lead to enormous deficits, an immobilized government and stratospheric interest rates. It would mean the end of the United States as a great economic power."
SOUNDS SCARY...BUT,
That's not how things happen in the real world.
First, the political dynamic WILL CHANGE. Once the Republicans are out of power you will be amazed at how quickly the looting will stop and solutions are found.
And the "rich" will accept higher taxes, but not without attempting to turn ordinary folks into "tinhorn fascists" using people like Dubya & Co.
True, we must stop the massive export of American jobs and wealth to China by the international financial class.....but that's what tariffs are for!
AT SOME POINT, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL START TO PROTECT THEIR DOMESTIC ECONOMY.....
Free Trade will soon be discredited and a NEO-LIBERALISM will sweep across the land.
Indeed, the Republican "victory" this time was mainly based on "wedge issues" that were not even real....mainly guns, gays and fear of black people in the south. But at some point, the white working class in the suburbs will have to drop their "vote rich live poor" philosophy of life. And vote with the blacks, the intelligencia, and college town Deaniac liberals.
Protest if you will: No. No. I'll Never vote with Gays, Blacks and Smart People....but it will happen!
Indeed, the need to protect the American economy is obvious to anyone who has been to the gas pump with their new Repubican "cheap dollar!"
NEO-LIBERALISM WILL STOP THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIOS FROM HAPPENING.....
Stay tuned......
"Tax increases on that scale would decimate the economy. Benefit cuts would cause pain. Doing nothing would lead to enormous deficits, an immobilized government and stratospheric interest rates. It would mean the end of the United States as a great economic power."
SOUNDS SCARY...BUT,
That's not how things happen in the real world.
First, the political dynamic WILL CHANGE. Once the Republicans are out of power you will be amazed at how quickly the looting will stop and solutions are found.
And the "rich" will accept higher taxes, but not without attempting to turn ordinary folks into "tinhorn fascists" using people like Dubya & Co.
True, we must stop the massive export of American jobs and wealth to China by the international financial class.....but that's what tariffs are for!
AT SOME POINT, THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WILL START TO PROTECT THEIR DOMESTIC ECONOMY.....
Free Trade will soon be discredited and a NEO-LIBERALISM will sweep across the land.
Indeed, the Republican "victory" this time was mainly based on "wedge issues" that were not even real....mainly guns, gays and fear of black people in the south. But at some point, the white working class in the suburbs will have to drop their "vote rich live poor" philosophy of life. And vote with the blacks, the intelligencia, and college town Deaniac liberals.
Protest if you will: No. No. I'll Never vote with Gays, Blacks and Smart People....but it will happen!
Indeed, the need to protect the American economy is obvious to anyone who has been to the gas pump with their new Repubican "cheap dollar!"
NEO-LIBERALISM WILL STOP THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIOS FROM HAPPENING.....
Stay tuned......
CULT OF THE CEO IS LOOTING AMERICA
The take over of American corporations
by the Cult of the CEO is one of the big untold stories of Wall Street.
The CEO is not supposed to "control" the corporation...the board of directors is.
But with boards of directors filled with stooges to the Cult to the CEO....we have reversed the historical norm. This all started in the 1980's, after 1970's interest rates went back down, and American companies were "dirt cheap," often selling for much less than their book value. That was the age of the private takeover, and "green mail." (Not unlike the sad case in Russia!)
In Truth, the CEO is supposed to be a "mere employee" --something like a city manager or the manager of a baseball team. In short, someone who is paid a salary, and can be fired on short notice.
The take over of America's corporate boards of directors by the CEO class....is what destroyed American Shareholder Capitalism. And made it into the shell game we have today.....nowadays it's all about looting, not "enhancing shareholder value."
Shareholders have been merely a "means to an end" for CEOs lately! Without some serious re-regulation by Washington or the states....the looting will continue.
by the Cult of the CEO is one of the big untold stories of Wall Street.
The CEO is not supposed to "control" the corporation...the board of directors is.
But with boards of directors filled with stooges to the Cult to the CEO....we have reversed the historical norm. This all started in the 1980's, after 1970's interest rates went back down, and American companies were "dirt cheap," often selling for much less than their book value. That was the age of the private takeover, and "green mail." (Not unlike the sad case in Russia!)
In Truth, the CEO is supposed to be a "mere employee" --something like a city manager or the manager of a baseball team. In short, someone who is paid a salary, and can be fired on short notice.
The take over of America's corporate boards of directors by the CEO class....is what destroyed American Shareholder Capitalism. And made it into the shell game we have today.....nowadays it's all about looting, not "enhancing shareholder value."
Shareholders have been merely a "means to an end" for CEOs lately! Without some serious re-regulation by Washington or the states....the looting will continue.
IS LEBANON THE NEXT LEBANON?
With the car bombing of a Christian area in
....Beirut, Lebanon could be on the way to becoming the next Iraq.
Dubya and the Neocons should realize that Civil War, NOT DEMOCRACY, is the most likely outcome of their policies in the middle east. The truth is that Afghanistan and Iraq, the two Muslim states that have been "democratized" so far, instability and chaos are the norm.
True, Afhganistan is Taliban free and now producing bumper crops of Heroin under the protection of US Taxpayers. And Iraq had an "election" where the "result" was dicated by MULLAHS, NOT POLITICAL PARTIES, as in a "normal democracy."
But at some point the question must be asked: ARE WE JUST DIGGING A DEEPER HOLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?
The US is hated, for the most part, on the Arab Street. And even the notion of the Arab Street, long denied by the pro-Israel pundits, has been vindicated. The point seems to be that Araby should be democratized, but not this way.
Democracy imposed by the west, and especially the pro-Israel Americans, will always be suspect.
Saddly, the car bomb today in Lebanon will not be the last..... I sense that the there is a civil war brewing just under the surface in that country. Lebanon could be like Bosnia during the bad old days by summer.
Or, put another way, Lebanon could be the next Lebanon!
Is NATO ready to occupy Lebanon and restore civil order.....? Is the US ready....it seems to be very "interventionist" these days even with huge deficits and soaring oil and gas prices....?
Or hmmmm....... WE COULD ASK SYRIA TO DO IT!
....Beirut, Lebanon could be on the way to becoming the next Iraq.
Dubya and the Neocons should realize that Civil War, NOT DEMOCRACY, is the most likely outcome of their policies in the middle east. The truth is that Afghanistan and Iraq, the two Muslim states that have been "democratized" so far, instability and chaos are the norm.
True, Afhganistan is Taliban free and now producing bumper crops of Heroin under the protection of US Taxpayers. And Iraq had an "election" where the "result" was dicated by MULLAHS, NOT POLITICAL PARTIES, as in a "normal democracy."
But at some point the question must be asked: ARE WE JUST DIGGING A DEEPER HOLE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?
The US is hated, for the most part, on the Arab Street. And even the notion of the Arab Street, long denied by the pro-Israel pundits, has been vindicated. The point seems to be that Araby should be democratized, but not this way.
Democracy imposed by the west, and especially the pro-Israel Americans, will always be suspect.
Saddly, the car bomb today in Lebanon will not be the last..... I sense that the there is a civil war brewing just under the surface in that country. Lebanon could be like Bosnia during the bad old days by summer.
Or, put another way, Lebanon could be the next Lebanon!
Is NATO ready to occupy Lebanon and restore civil order.....? Is the US ready....it seems to be very "interventionist" these days even with huge deficits and soaring oil and gas prices....?
Or hmmmm....... WE COULD ASK SYRIA TO DO IT!
Friday, March 18, 2005
BBC RADIO PLAYER
Check it out..... British Radio! It's sort of like American NPR but much bigger. I've put a link in the side bar for your future listening enjoyment
WOLFIE AND THE SECRET IRAQI OIL PLANS
The plot thickens.....to the consistancy of oil!
What's Wolfie up to? And is it really all about Iraqi Oil.
What's Wolfie up to? And is it really all about Iraqi Oil.
KONGRESSIONAL FREAK SHOW CONTINUES!
Yesterday it was the steroid filled baseball players.
...now, Congress is ordering a "brain damaged" woman to appear before them to see if she is "brain damaged enough" to be allowed to die!
Don't they realize that people in that condition can not be moved around without potentially fatal consequences? Kongress may kill Terry Schiavo before the doctors do...!
This latest action by Congress is clearly "right to life" going over the top!
Well, ANYTHING to avoid talking about the real issues like health care, jobs and the trade deficit! Ya think?
But can they keep this freak show going until the next election.....?!
Says Tom Delay to Fox News:
".... removal of the tube would be "an act of barbarism" that must be prevented, DeLay blasted Sens. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and Carl Levin, D-Mich., who he said blocked Senate passage of the Protection of Incapacitated Persons Act of 2005, a measure inspired by the Schiavo case.
"Those senators responsible for blocking our bill ... have put Miss Schiavo's life at risk," DeLay said. "We care about saving Terri Schiavo's life. The House bill will do that."
Exactly who or what is barbaric is questionable..... But since 80% of medical spending is put out for persons in the last year of their life, this may be an issue whose time has come....
...now, Congress is ordering a "brain damaged" woman to appear before them to see if she is "brain damaged enough" to be allowed to die!
Don't they realize that people in that condition can not be moved around without potentially fatal consequences? Kongress may kill Terry Schiavo before the doctors do...!
This latest action by Congress is clearly "right to life" going over the top!
Well, ANYTHING to avoid talking about the real issues like health care, jobs and the trade deficit! Ya think?
But can they keep this freak show going until the next election.....?!
Says Tom Delay to Fox News:
".... removal of the tube would be "an act of barbarism" that must be prevented, DeLay blasted Sens. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., Ron Wyden, D-Ore., and Carl Levin, D-Mich., who he said blocked Senate passage of the Protection of Incapacitated Persons Act of 2005, a measure inspired by the Schiavo case.
"Those senators responsible for blocking our bill ... have put Miss Schiavo's life at risk," DeLay said. "We care about saving Terri Schiavo's life. The House bill will do that."
Exactly who or what is barbaric is questionable..... But since 80% of medical spending is put out for persons in the last year of their life, this may be an issue whose time has come....
POSTING HAS BEEN DOWN FOR MOST OF DAY AT BLOGGER.
Sorry......about that. Some new servers being installed. Check back soon for more postings...currently in the pipeline.
CDs for Dogs......?
Here's a segment from NPR that lightened the mood for me this week.... It's a company that makes CDs for dogs and other pets.... I highly recommend "Squeakey-Deakey" as this is the tune that dogs like most! Check it out......
WASSUP OR DOWN AT FANNIE MAE.....?
This story is flying under the radar..... But I would suspect that if disaster ever hits the financial district it will come from a big banking failure of some kind.
MARKETS GRASPING AT STRAWS.....
News that oil is "below $57" is now grounds for a frenzied rally on Wall Street!
These folks are really grasping at straws......or, they could merely be holding the markets up until April 15, and the traditional "Spring Crash" ....but only after all of the suckers are in at the higher prices.....?
And, of course, Greenspan and the Fed are on tap soon, and many think the Fed will not be so "measured" this time around.
After all, we do want interest rates "normalized" while we're all still young enough to enjoy it!
CLEARLY THE STREET IS AT THE HIGH END OF IT'S RANGE FOR THIS CYCLE.....
BUT IT WILL BE INTERESING TO SEE HOW THIS REALIZATION PLAYS OUT DAY BY DAY.
THE MARKETS HAVE AN INTERESTING WAY OF "LATHERING UP" EVERYDAY ABOUT SOME IRRELEVANT NEWS ITEM.
......BUT THE BIG TREND IS STILL DOWN.
SELL BEFORE MAY should be the market's mantra now!
These folks are really grasping at straws......or, they could merely be holding the markets up until April 15, and the traditional "Spring Crash" ....but only after all of the suckers are in at the higher prices.....?
And, of course, Greenspan and the Fed are on tap soon, and many think the Fed will not be so "measured" this time around.
After all, we do want interest rates "normalized" while we're all still young enough to enjoy it!
CLEARLY THE STREET IS AT THE HIGH END OF IT'S RANGE FOR THIS CYCLE.....
BUT IT WILL BE INTERESING TO SEE HOW THIS REALIZATION PLAYS OUT DAY BY DAY.
THE MARKETS HAVE AN INTERESTING WAY OF "LATHERING UP" EVERYDAY ABOUT SOME IRRELEVANT NEWS ITEM.
......BUT THE BIG TREND IS STILL DOWN.
SELL BEFORE MAY should be the market's mantra now!
WORLD TURNING TO THE NEO-LEFT.....
Krugman writes in today's NYTimes:
If Mr. Wolfowitz says that some free-market policy will help economic growth, he'll be greeted with as much skepticism as if he declared that some country has weapons of mass destruction. ..... rightly or not, developing countries will see Mr. Wolfowitz's selection as a sign that we're still trying to impose policies they believe have failed.
Krugman correctly notes that Latin America is now turning to the political left for solutions to their problems. Is Castroism now on the rise...after all these years?
But there are other signs of the rise of Neo-Left politics.
In Russia, for all of the harping about reversing privatization, Putin remains popular "on the street" if not with Russia's New Rich.
The Blair/Clinton style of pro-capital liberalism seems to be on the decline too.
Indeed, the amazing benefits of deregulation have by-passed America's airlines which are now pitiful economic basket cases...!
The world's long experiment with Reaganomics seems to be ending. From Reagan to Dubya the world was run "as if" only capital mattered. And the high priest of this cult was Greenspan. The end result of Reaganism has been a disaster....in the US and Globally.
In the US the structural problems of Reaganism are now considered beyond all hope of repair.....the debt and deficits are simply "faith based" finance now.
THE NEOCONS ARE YESTERDAY'S MEN..... WOLFIE AND DUBYA ARE TOTALLY OUT OF STEP WITH THE TIDES OF HISTORY NOW.
THE WORLD IS SLOWLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AGAIN......
If Mr. Wolfowitz says that some free-market policy will help economic growth, he'll be greeted with as much skepticism as if he declared that some country has weapons of mass destruction. ..... rightly or not, developing countries will see Mr. Wolfowitz's selection as a sign that we're still trying to impose policies they believe have failed.
Krugman correctly notes that Latin America is now turning to the political left for solutions to their problems. Is Castroism now on the rise...after all these years?
But there are other signs of the rise of Neo-Left politics.
In Russia, for all of the harping about reversing privatization, Putin remains popular "on the street" if not with Russia's New Rich.
The Blair/Clinton style of pro-capital liberalism seems to be on the decline too.
Indeed, the amazing benefits of deregulation have by-passed America's airlines which are now pitiful economic basket cases...!
The world's long experiment with Reaganomics seems to be ending. From Reagan to Dubya the world was run "as if" only capital mattered. And the high priest of this cult was Greenspan. The end result of Reaganism has been a disaster....in the US and Globally.
In the US the structural problems of Reaganism are now considered beyond all hope of repair.....the debt and deficits are simply "faith based" finance now.
THE NEOCONS ARE YESTERDAY'S MEN..... WOLFIE AND DUBYA ARE TOTALLY OUT OF STEP WITH THE TIDES OF HISTORY NOW.
THE WORLD IS SLOWLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AGAIN......
COULD DUBYA BE IN DUTCH....?
News that the Netherlands has charged one of it's citizens with war crimes resulting from Saddam's war against the Kurds could be dangerous.
Could this establish a pattern of various national courts charging people with War Crimes....for wars that "went bad" ....or wars with which the prosecutors did "not agree?"
If so, eventually it might be impossible for American military and civilian leaders to travel to certain countries....out of fear of being arrested for war crimes.
Clearly, this was one reason why the US did not support the International War Crimes Tribunal...... But, could a nation-by-nation "free lance version" of a war crimes tribunal be even worse....?
Most of the world was dead set against Dubya's war in Iraq.
....And if it goes baddly, as it seems to be doing, there could be a hue and cry for punishment of those Americans who started this "unjust war."
And that could include Dubya, Rummy, Wolfie, Condi, Colin and many others.
Dubya could be in Dutch if we see more attempts to bring "war criminals" to justice in places like the Netherlands.
Could this establish a pattern of various national courts charging people with War Crimes....for wars that "went bad" ....or wars with which the prosecutors did "not agree?"
If so, eventually it might be impossible for American military and civilian leaders to travel to certain countries....out of fear of being arrested for war crimes.
Clearly, this was one reason why the US did not support the International War Crimes Tribunal...... But, could a nation-by-nation "free lance version" of a war crimes tribunal be even worse....?
Most of the world was dead set against Dubya's war in Iraq.
....And if it goes baddly, as it seems to be doing, there could be a hue and cry for punishment of those Americans who started this "unjust war."
And that could include Dubya, Rummy, Wolfie, Condi, Colin and many others.
Dubya could be in Dutch if we see more attempts to bring "war criminals" to justice in places like the Netherlands.
Thursday, March 17, 2005
WILL GREENSPAN GO FOR 50BP?
Some think that the G-Man will go for 50 bps in the Fed meeting on March 22.....
And the dollar reacted oddly, today.... Does someone know something? The big plunge in gold looked like a backdoor attempt to take the wind from behind oil prices....but they do this kind of thing every so often. And it never really works out.
My hunch is that GREEDSPAN NEEDS A SHOCKER--- to get the markets to take notice....and show a little respect for the Fed again. Greenspan's been kicked around a lot lately for being the political "Yes, Man."
And nothing would pour oil on the troubled waters of the oil market like a big boost in the dollar via markedly higher rates.
And of course we are over-due for a sequel to the Spring "bond crash" of last May..... Greenspan could be the "next big thing" in the markets later this week....!
And the dollar reacted oddly, today.... Does someone know something? The big plunge in gold looked like a backdoor attempt to take the wind from behind oil prices....but they do this kind of thing every so often. And it never really works out.
My hunch is that GREEDSPAN NEEDS A SHOCKER--- to get the markets to take notice....and show a little respect for the Fed again. Greenspan's been kicked around a lot lately for being the political "Yes, Man."
And nothing would pour oil on the troubled waters of the oil market like a big boost in the dollar via markedly higher rates.
And of course we are over-due for a sequel to the Spring "bond crash" of last May..... Greenspan could be the "next big thing" in the markets later this week....!
THE DOLLAR PARADOX....KICKS IN.
This Link provides a good example of the paradoxical thinking that is common in the currency markets.
Today, something is up as far as how the conventional wisdom is being processed....it could be Fed "plunge protection" kicking in...or, it could be a group of central banks acting in concert.
Oil is up big. But now suddenly we see a plunge in gold and in foreign currencies.....this is a paradox because the same problems that caused the dollar drop are still in play....only now everyone is choosing to look at the Fed's rate hikes as "kicking in."
Ergo: Sell gold. Buy US bonds and the dollar. This type of thing happens all the time.....and it prevents a "textbook" adjustment of the markets to permanently different levels...at least for a while. Or, as someone once said:
THE MARKETS CAN REMAIN IRRATIONAL LONGER THAN YOU CAN REMAIN SOLVENT!
CLEARLY, SOMETHING IS "BEING DONE" ABOUT OIL PRICES AT A VERY VERY HIGH LEVEL....WAY ABOVE THE "MERE MARKETS." Perhaps the "logic" will hold....perhaps not.
A CRASH IS REALLY WHEN THE "BIG SHOTS" LOSE CONTROL OF THE "FLOAT" OR OF THE MARKETS GENERALLY. STILL, THE MARKETS ARE "THIN ENOUGH" THAT IF THE CENTRAL BANKS WANT TO ACT THEY CAN....AT LEAST, ABSENT A HEADLONG PANIC......
Today's "ephiphany" is interesting and yet another example of THE DOLLAR PARADOX.......
Today, something is up as far as how the conventional wisdom is being processed....it could be Fed "plunge protection" kicking in...or, it could be a group of central banks acting in concert.
Oil is up big. But now suddenly we see a plunge in gold and in foreign currencies.....this is a paradox because the same problems that caused the dollar drop are still in play....only now everyone is choosing to look at the Fed's rate hikes as "kicking in."
Ergo: Sell gold. Buy US bonds and the dollar. This type of thing happens all the time.....and it prevents a "textbook" adjustment of the markets to permanently different levels...at least for a while. Or, as someone once said:
THE MARKETS CAN REMAIN IRRATIONAL LONGER THAN YOU CAN REMAIN SOLVENT!
CLEARLY, SOMETHING IS "BEING DONE" ABOUT OIL PRICES AT A VERY VERY HIGH LEVEL....WAY ABOVE THE "MERE MARKETS." Perhaps the "logic" will hold....perhaps not.
A CRASH IS REALLY WHEN THE "BIG SHOTS" LOSE CONTROL OF THE "FLOAT" OR OF THE MARKETS GENERALLY. STILL, THE MARKETS ARE "THIN ENOUGH" THAT IF THE CENTRAL BANKS WANT TO ACT THEY CAN....AT LEAST, ABSENT A HEADLONG PANIC......
Today's "ephiphany" is interesting and yet another example of THE DOLLAR PARADOX.......
WILL IRAQ WORK....?
Can the New Government in Iraq ever "work?"
Well, consider: Will Kurds ever "rule" Iraq from Baghdad? Will Shia ever be in charge of Sunni areas?
Will anything be possible when the Kurds are really only half committed to the process, having a hidden agenda of an Indepentant Kurdistan, with the northern oil fields?
My sense is that the Kurds will stay in Baghdad ONLY as long as they get what they want. When the going gets rough....the Kurds will leave and perhaps the "next bombing" by Americans will be in the Kurdish northern regions....?
So far there is not one single shread of evidence that the current Iraqi "government" can, OR EVER WILL, govern in Iraq.....!
Well, consider: Will Kurds ever "rule" Iraq from Baghdad? Will Shia ever be in charge of Sunni areas?
Will anything be possible when the Kurds are really only half committed to the process, having a hidden agenda of an Indepentant Kurdistan, with the northern oil fields?
My sense is that the Kurds will stay in Baghdad ONLY as long as they get what they want. When the going gets rough....the Kurds will leave and perhaps the "next bombing" by Americans will be in the Kurdish northern regions....?
So far there is not one single shread of evidence that the current Iraqi "government" can, OR EVER WILL, govern in Iraq.....!
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