....FOR THE REST OF 2006!
The excess liquidity simply must be sopped up! Bubbles galore is not a monetary policy!
Wednesday, November 30, 2005
WHAT BUSH WON'T ADMIT...OLD IRAQ DOESN'T EXIST!
The problem with the notion that the US troops will be replaced by Iraqi Troops is that we have not defined: IRAQ!
To be sure, Shia are "joining" the new military and getting on the US "payroll"...but they are only interested in killing Sunnis...and taking control of Iraq for the pro-Iranian Shittes in the south of "old Iraq."
Ditto the Kurds...who have even less of a definition of what Iraq actually is.
The Shia and Kurds are basically PUTTING THEIR LOCAL MILITIAS ON THE US MILTARY PAYROLL...SINCE THERE IS REALLY NOW FUNCTIONING STATE IN IRAQ...AND THEIR LIKELY WON'T BE AFTER THE MUCH TOUTED "ELECTIONS" IN DECEMBER.
Under US sponsership the Shia and Kurdish militia are now operating as dejure DEATH SQUADS...in a campaign of ETHNIC CLEANSING OF SUNNI FROM CENTRAL IRAQ.
Yet somehow DUBYA and Co seem to be under the delusion that these Shia and Kurdish militias are "fighting for Iraq!"
THERE IS NO CONCEPT OF IRAQ TO THIS ETHNIC GROUPS...THERE IS NO SENSE OF NATIONHOOD IN IRAQ TODAY...EXCEPT IN THE DATED AND WRONG "INTELLIGENCE" OF THE AMERICAN MILITARY/WHITE HOUSE, WHO "JUST DON'T GET IT." OR, if the do get it are JUST not telling the American public about what they really "know."
IRAQ DOES NOT EXIST...THE OLD IRAQ OF SADDAM IS GONE AND IT WILL NEVER RETURN.
THERE IS NOW ONLY AMERICAN "EMPOWERED" SHIA AND KURDS WHO ARE "FIGHTING" FOR NARROW PERSONAL AGENDAS THAT HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE OLD "IRAQ" OF SADDAM...
True, they have ambitions of controlling the vast wealth of Iraq...and they surely will accept American money...
But the notion of "a democratic Iraq" as outlined by Bush etal is simply NOT on their radar screen...
For that reason...Bush has simply not carried his burden of proof that he has a plan for "victory" in Iraq...
My suggestion is that even if he can define "victory" it will be useless unless there is a definition of "Iraq" by all concerned...right now the Shia, Kurds, Sunni and Americans are all defining Iraq differently... And that is the biggest mistate Dubya and the Republicans are making today.
To be sure, Shia are "joining" the new military and getting on the US "payroll"...but they are only interested in killing Sunnis...and taking control of Iraq for the pro-Iranian Shittes in the south of "old Iraq."
Ditto the Kurds...who have even less of a definition of what Iraq actually is.
The Shia and Kurds are basically PUTTING THEIR LOCAL MILITIAS ON THE US MILTARY PAYROLL...SINCE THERE IS REALLY NOW FUNCTIONING STATE IN IRAQ...AND THEIR LIKELY WON'T BE AFTER THE MUCH TOUTED "ELECTIONS" IN DECEMBER.
Under US sponsership the Shia and Kurdish militia are now operating as dejure DEATH SQUADS...in a campaign of ETHNIC CLEANSING OF SUNNI FROM CENTRAL IRAQ.
Yet somehow DUBYA and Co seem to be under the delusion that these Shia and Kurdish militias are "fighting for Iraq!"
THERE IS NO CONCEPT OF IRAQ TO THIS ETHNIC GROUPS...THERE IS NO SENSE OF NATIONHOOD IN IRAQ TODAY...EXCEPT IN THE DATED AND WRONG "INTELLIGENCE" OF THE AMERICAN MILITARY/WHITE HOUSE, WHO "JUST DON'T GET IT." OR, if the do get it are JUST not telling the American public about what they really "know."
IRAQ DOES NOT EXIST...THE OLD IRAQ OF SADDAM IS GONE AND IT WILL NEVER RETURN.
THERE IS NOW ONLY AMERICAN "EMPOWERED" SHIA AND KURDS WHO ARE "FIGHTING" FOR NARROW PERSONAL AGENDAS THAT HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE OLD "IRAQ" OF SADDAM...
True, they have ambitions of controlling the vast wealth of Iraq...and they surely will accept American money...
But the notion of "a democratic Iraq" as outlined by Bush etal is simply NOT on their radar screen...
For that reason...Bush has simply not carried his burden of proof that he has a plan for "victory" in Iraq...
My suggestion is that even if he can define "victory" it will be useless unless there is a definition of "Iraq" by all concerned...right now the Shia, Kurds, Sunni and Americans are all defining Iraq differently... And that is the biggest mistate Dubya and the Republicans are making today.
Tuesday, November 29, 2005
DOW HITS CEILING AT 11,000...
My hunch is that 11,000 is going to be very hard to break convincingly, OR AT ALL...
Any "bad news" could send the markets into a bout of navel gazing again...and that could last until the end of the year...
Look at Google today...? Reality Time?
Furthermore, at some point the "news cycle" will reassert itself...and that could be bad for the bulls because 2006 is NOT going to be a "cake walk" by any means. And the underlying news has not been that good...eg the corporate bankruptcies, etal.
Any "bad news" could send the markets into a bout of navel gazing again...and that could last until the end of the year...
Look at Google today...? Reality Time?
Furthermore, at some point the "news cycle" will reassert itself...and that could be bad for the bulls because 2006 is NOT going to be a "cake walk" by any means. And the underlying news has not been that good...eg the corporate bankruptcies, etal.
IRAQ ETHNIC CLEANSING BY THE US...?
The conclusion of the NYTimes
about THE DEBACLE in Iraq seems to be that the US is engaging in, or at least assisting in, the ethnic cleansing of Iraqi Sunnis...on behalf of Pro-Iranian Shia.
Could this have been "the plan"...that Dubya and the Neocons would do FOR IRAN...WHAT IRAN COULD NOT DO IN IRAQ DURING THE SADDAM YEARS?
If so...then STAY THE COURSE could be the game plan in Iran as well as in Washington!
about THE DEBACLE in Iraq seems to be that the US is engaging in, or at least assisting in, the ethnic cleansing of Iraqi Sunnis...on behalf of Pro-Iranian Shia.
Could this have been "the plan"...that Dubya and the Neocons would do FOR IRAN...WHAT IRAN COULD NOT DO IN IRAQ DURING THE SADDAM YEARS?
If so...then STAY THE COURSE could be the game plan in Iran as well as in Washington!
OIL, GOLD, BONDS, AND GOOGLE....?
Oil down. Gold up. Bonds down. and Google down big for once. Wassup?
The big run in Gold seems to say that: SOMETHING IS UP...? But what?
It appears that the market thinks that some kind of inflation is inevitable; and that too much money has been printed...hence the run up in gold.
Yet, this inflation seems to have the trait of slowing the economy...eventually...hence the decline in oil...which, of course, is co-relates to faster economic activity not slower.
Bonds seem to be getting real...and the general economy seems to be saying to the FED...RAISE RATES EVEN MORE... And I'm sure the FED will comply in 2006.
The decline in Google today could be a sign that the ASSET BUBBLE is finally abating.
And there seems to be real resistance at Dow 11,000...after all, if the Dow passes 11,000 SOMEONE might want to ask WHY? AND FRANKLY, KNOW ONE KNOWS WHY ON WALL STREET...OTHER THAN THE 'NEED' FOR A YEAR END RALLY...
Ultimately all of the chickens are going to come home to roost...
(and alas, Iraq is becoming a Gordian Knot for Bush & Co that no one can predict...)
Probably the most important data point will be coming this Friday with the Jobs number... The economists seem to say that a lot of jobs were "created"...still I'm not so sure. What is the basis for this other than the need to keep the happy talk going?
MY HUNCH IS THAT NET NET THE JOBS NUMBER WILL BE ABOUT 25,000+... RETAILERS HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUS ABOUT HOLIDAY HIRING. AND GOVERNMENTS ARE PINCHED. I REALLY DON'T SEE THE BIGGER NUMBERS THAT HAVE BEEN PREDICTED...
Of course there are always the fudge factors... Friday will be key...stay tuned.
The big run in Gold seems to say that: SOMETHING IS UP...? But what?
It appears that the market thinks that some kind of inflation is inevitable; and that too much money has been printed...hence the run up in gold.
Yet, this inflation seems to have the trait of slowing the economy...eventually...hence the decline in oil...which, of course, is co-relates to faster economic activity not slower.
Bonds seem to be getting real...and the general economy seems to be saying to the FED...RAISE RATES EVEN MORE... And I'm sure the FED will comply in 2006.
The decline in Google today could be a sign that the ASSET BUBBLE is finally abating.
And there seems to be real resistance at Dow 11,000...after all, if the Dow passes 11,000 SOMEONE might want to ask WHY? AND FRANKLY, KNOW ONE KNOWS WHY ON WALL STREET...OTHER THAN THE 'NEED' FOR A YEAR END RALLY...
Ultimately all of the chickens are going to come home to roost...
(and alas, Iraq is becoming a Gordian Knot for Bush & Co that no one can predict...)
Probably the most important data point will be coming this Friday with the Jobs number... The economists seem to say that a lot of jobs were "created"...still I'm not so sure. What is the basis for this other than the need to keep the happy talk going?
MY HUNCH IS THAT NET NET THE JOBS NUMBER WILL BE ABOUT 25,000+... RETAILERS HAVE BEEN CAUTIOUS ABOUT HOLIDAY HIRING. AND GOVERNMENTS ARE PINCHED. I REALLY DON'T SEE THE BIGGER NUMBERS THAT HAVE BEEN PREDICTED...
Of course there are always the fudge factors... Friday will be key...stay tuned.
Monday, November 28, 2005
SHOCKING NEW POLL NUMBERS
According to my recent poll at "the mall"...37% of the American Public could not find their ass...even if you let them use both hands!
Wouldn't it be great if pollsters asked a basic "qualifing question" just to test the general intelligence of the person being polled?
Something like, which is farther away the Moon or the Sun? Or, what Century did Abraham Lincoln live in?
I mean would it make a "difference" if 90% of college grads had one view...and only 10% of high school drop outs held the same view... Perhaps I'm suggestng that "all views" are not created equal...? Some people actually know WHAT they're talking about...
And who are these people who still think Bush is doing a "good job?"
Wouldn't it be great if pollsters asked a basic "qualifing question" just to test the general intelligence of the person being polled?
Something like, which is farther away the Moon or the Sun? Or, what Century did Abraham Lincoln live in?
I mean would it make a "difference" if 90% of college grads had one view...and only 10% of high school drop outs held the same view... Perhaps I'm suggestng that "all views" are not created equal...? Some people actually know WHAT they're talking about...
And who are these people who still think Bush is doing a "good job?"
BONDS IN A FOOL'S PARADISE...
The bond market is going to have to GET REAL!
The FED ain't gonna stop raising rates in 2006...that's all you need to know, get used to it.
They simply must sop up the liquidity that Greenspan spilled into the markets after the Bubble of '99.
Where do you think all of those Mc Mansions came from...? GREENSPANS REAL ESTATE BUBBLE...which made any 1200 square foot house into a $150,000 sure thing. People just started "trading up." And eventually you got the local electrical contractor living in a 15,000 square foot Palace!
Essentially ALL OF THE LIQUIDITY from the Internet Bubble sloshed into the real estate market...AND STAYED THERE FOR YEARS... As Greenspan "debated" with himself about whether a real estate bubble "existed."
IT DID AND IT'S BURSTING...EVEN NOW.
The FED ain't gonna stop raising rates in 2006...that's all you need to know, get used to it.
They simply must sop up the liquidity that Greenspan spilled into the markets after the Bubble of '99.
Where do you think all of those Mc Mansions came from...? GREENSPANS REAL ESTATE BUBBLE...which made any 1200 square foot house into a $150,000 sure thing. People just started "trading up." And eventually you got the local electrical contractor living in a 15,000 square foot Palace!
Essentially ALL OF THE LIQUIDITY from the Internet Bubble sloshed into the real estate market...AND STAYED THERE FOR YEARS... As Greenspan "debated" with himself about whether a real estate bubble "existed."
IT DID AND IT'S BURSTING...EVEN NOW.
BECAUSE "VIN IS IN"....a store guide.
Junk chic...? Anyplace but Walmart! A great place to find old heavy metal vinyl... Ozzie lives!
METALS SOAR....McMANSIONS PLUNGE?
....TIME TO PARTY LIKE IT'S 1980!
But home sales could to the Prophet of Doom for 2006... Everyone knows that the McMansions are strickly the product of Greenspans Hyper-liquidity/asset inflation fixation in the '90's.
But home sales could to the Prophet of Doom for 2006... Everyone knows that the McMansions are strickly the product of Greenspans Hyper-liquidity/asset inflation fixation in the '90's.
WILL DOW GAG ON 11,000....MERCK TAKES THE RAP?
The real question is will the Dow gag on 11,000?
Clearly the hypsters are in charge on Wall Street for the rest of this year.
The Black Friday sales were, either so-so or ABSOLUTELY FABULOUS! Depending on your news source.
Still, after the $50 digial cameras are all gone...with the shoppers still buy anything? That is the $64 billion dollar question.
Those "cheap" $3000 wide screen TVs are tempting...but where to put them? And who has the time to "watch televsion" except for Seinfeld and Survivor? And maybe sometimes the Simpson's...?
Of course there is always that DVD Burner...?
But that means learning another "application"...and many people are getting GIZMO FATIGUE about now... What about all those digital pictures you still haven't unloaded yet? And does your I-Pod really need 10,000 "songs?" Wouldn't about 300 be more manageable...?
Anyway;
Merck will take the rap today if the markets "consolidate" gains...but I still think the HYPSTERS are in control... THIS MARKET IS GOING TO THE MOON!
REALITY IS STRICTLY FOR THE TERMINALLY RATIONAL THESE DAYS! AND GOOGLE CAN GO TO $1000...IF YOU ONLY BELIEVE IT WILL.
THERE IS NO ROOM FOR GROWN UPS IN AMERICA TODAY...!
IT'S ALL BECOMING "LET'S PRETEND."
Clearly the hypsters are in charge on Wall Street for the rest of this year.
The Black Friday sales were, either so-so or ABSOLUTELY FABULOUS! Depending on your news source.
Still, after the $50 digial cameras are all gone...with the shoppers still buy anything? That is the $64 billion dollar question.
Those "cheap" $3000 wide screen TVs are tempting...but where to put them? And who has the time to "watch televsion" except for Seinfeld and Survivor? And maybe sometimes the Simpson's...?
Of course there is always that DVD Burner...?
But that means learning another "application"...and many people are getting GIZMO FATIGUE about now... What about all those digital pictures you still haven't unloaded yet? And does your I-Pod really need 10,000 "songs?" Wouldn't about 300 be more manageable...?
Anyway;
Merck will take the rap today if the markets "consolidate" gains...but I still think the HYPSTERS are in control... THIS MARKET IS GOING TO THE MOON!
REALITY IS STRICTLY FOR THE TERMINALLY RATIONAL THESE DAYS! AND GOOGLE CAN GO TO $1000...IF YOU ONLY BELIEVE IT WILL.
THERE IS NO ROOM FOR GROWN UPS IN AMERICA TODAY...!
IT'S ALL BECOMING "LET'S PRETEND."
BEST OF TIMES, WORSE OF TIMES: DESCRIBING THE ECONOMIC ELEPHANT?
Pundits are surprised by the public's perceptions of the economy...
GDP growth is reasonably strong, yet people think the economy is in recession... So is it Iraq? Or Katrina? Or the punk job growth? Wassup?
Clearly, the economy is like the blind men describing an elephant... Since the blind men can't "see" the whole elephant...they only "percieve" that part they are touching NOW.
Consider:
If you are a health care worker...you are probably doing OK. If you are a public sector worker, ditto, although you had to forego a couple of pay raises by now. If you are a mortgage broker or otherwise in Real Estate...so far so good.
On the other hand, if you are in ANY KIND of manufacturing or production work...you're in trouble... Downsizing and Outsourcing is the name of the game. China is eating your lunch.
Business services and help desk are being sent to India in droves. Travel and airlanes are disaster areas.
And I.T...? If you're still working you must be lucky, or doing some drudge work that no one else has time for, or have a rare skill that they haven't figured out how to farm out yet...but don't worry they're working on it.
Restaurant and Bars are still hiring...mainly to handle the overworked dual income households who are still trying to hold on to middle class lifestyles. (50k+50k=100k)
If you're a "redundant boomer" you're pretty much doomed... And NO, opening a business is probably not going to work out.
NET NET THERE IS NOT "ONE ECONOMY"...THERE IS ONLY "YOUR ECONOMY"
...EVERYONE IS LIKE THE BLIND MAN DESCRIBING THE ELEPHANT THESE DAYS...
The real problem is that those "favored sectors" above are probably living on borrowed time...AND BORROWED MONEY! The economy works best when ALL SECTORS are operating in sync...and the income distribution is lubricating the whole economy.
Today that's not happening...and that's why the COLLAPSE SCENARIO is almost inevitable.
Or put another way: The Rich get richer, and the Poor get Jesus. It's the best of times and the worse of times...
Have a Dickenisan Xmas!
GDP growth is reasonably strong, yet people think the economy is in recession... So is it Iraq? Or Katrina? Or the punk job growth? Wassup?
Clearly, the economy is like the blind men describing an elephant... Since the blind men can't "see" the whole elephant...they only "percieve" that part they are touching NOW.
Consider:
If you are a health care worker...you are probably doing OK. If you are a public sector worker, ditto, although you had to forego a couple of pay raises by now. If you are a mortgage broker or otherwise in Real Estate...so far so good.
On the other hand, if you are in ANY KIND of manufacturing or production work...you're in trouble... Downsizing and Outsourcing is the name of the game. China is eating your lunch.
Business services and help desk are being sent to India in droves. Travel and airlanes are disaster areas.
And I.T...? If you're still working you must be lucky, or doing some drudge work that no one else has time for, or have a rare skill that they haven't figured out how to farm out yet...but don't worry they're working on it.
Restaurant and Bars are still hiring...mainly to handle the overworked dual income households who are still trying to hold on to middle class lifestyles. (50k+50k=100k)
If you're a "redundant boomer" you're pretty much doomed... And NO, opening a business is probably not going to work out.
NET NET THERE IS NOT "ONE ECONOMY"...THERE IS ONLY "YOUR ECONOMY"
...EVERYONE IS LIKE THE BLIND MAN DESCRIBING THE ELEPHANT THESE DAYS...
The real problem is that those "favored sectors" above are probably living on borrowed time...AND BORROWED MONEY! The economy works best when ALL SECTORS are operating in sync...and the income distribution is lubricating the whole economy.
Today that's not happening...and that's why the COLLAPSE SCENARIO is almost inevitable.
Or put another way: The Rich get richer, and the Poor get Jesus. It's the best of times and the worse of times...
Have a Dickenisan Xmas!
Sunday, November 27, 2005
MARKETS WILL GO STRAIGHT UP...HYPE CONTINUES...
There is very little that can stop this WILD market rally now...
Wall Street is PRINTING MONEY for anyone who takes the plunge....
The hype about "spending" is in the bag... Although I personally DID NOT go to a "mall" this weekend...and I probably will avoid the malls if at all possivle for the rest of the year...
So much of "the spending" is on Televsions and TV related items... I mean is there really ANYTHING to watch on American TV? I certainly can't find it! And I'd rather watch a movie or listen to music or read...books, newspapers or magazines...that sit in front of the mindless TV.
The hype will reach a fever pitch this week...it always does, but later in December the REAL STORY will come out...on the back pages of the financial press... BUT THE DOW SHOULD BE AT 11,500++ BY THEN...
IT'S ALL ABOUT SALES...STOCK SALES!
Wall Street is PRINTING MONEY for anyone who takes the plunge....
The hype about "spending" is in the bag... Although I personally DID NOT go to a "mall" this weekend...and I probably will avoid the malls if at all possivle for the rest of the year...
So much of "the spending" is on Televsions and TV related items... I mean is there really ANYTHING to watch on American TV? I certainly can't find it! And I'd rather watch a movie or listen to music or read...books, newspapers or magazines...that sit in front of the mindless TV.
The hype will reach a fever pitch this week...it always does, but later in December the REAL STORY will come out...on the back pages of the financial press... BUT THE DOW SHOULD BE AT 11,500++ BY THEN...
IT'S ALL ABOUT SALES...STOCK SALES!
PENSION FUNDS PANICKED...ROLLING THE DICE!
HIGH RISK HEDGE FUNDS SOUGHT OUT TO "SOLVE" THE PROBLEM OF UNDERFUNDING~!
SHARON: SCARED STRAIGHT BY DUBYA'S DEBACLE?
Sharon seems to have been scared straight by Dubya's Debacle in Iraq!
Sharon has abandon the Likud Party that he founded primarily to annex the West Bank...and return the Holy Land of Israel to it's supposed "Biblical Boundries..."
This notion was picked up by the American Evangelicals with their notion that IF the Third Temple was rebuilt on the Temple Mount...Christ will return and the Jews will convert to Christianity...
But now the American Evangelicals are stuck holding the bag as Sharon, ever the pragmatist, seeks to assure Israel's future in the middle east, by PERHAPS, allowing a Palestinian state on the West Bank at long last!
You will notice that there has been very little news coverage of this MAJOR MOVE by Sharon in the American MSM... And indeed, the nutcase American Evangelicals were a bit silent today about the "Return of the Jews" and the Rebuilding of the Temple...
This is a major change of direction by Israel...and is, at long last, making a true lasting peace and prosperity possible in the middle east...for all parties.
Or...maybe Sharon just doesn 't want to "accept Jesus" as his American Christian Backers were expecting?
SHARON'S BOLT FROM THE LIKUD WAS THE MOST IMPORTANT NEWS STORY THIS MONTH...BUT DON'T EXPECT TO READ ABOUT IT IN THE AMERICAN MEDIA...!
THE ONLY LIKUDNICS LEFT NOW SEEM TO BE IN NEW YORK, TEXAS AND WASHINGTON!
Sharon has abandon the Likud Party that he founded primarily to annex the West Bank...and return the Holy Land of Israel to it's supposed "Biblical Boundries..."
This notion was picked up by the American Evangelicals with their notion that IF the Third Temple was rebuilt on the Temple Mount...Christ will return and the Jews will convert to Christianity...
But now the American Evangelicals are stuck holding the bag as Sharon, ever the pragmatist, seeks to assure Israel's future in the middle east, by PERHAPS, allowing a Palestinian state on the West Bank at long last!
You will notice that there has been very little news coverage of this MAJOR MOVE by Sharon in the American MSM... And indeed, the nutcase American Evangelicals were a bit silent today about the "Return of the Jews" and the Rebuilding of the Temple...
This is a major change of direction by Israel...and is, at long last, making a true lasting peace and prosperity possible in the middle east...for all parties.
Or...maybe Sharon just doesn 't want to "accept Jesus" as his American Christian Backers were expecting?
SHARON'S BOLT FROM THE LIKUD WAS THE MOST IMPORTANT NEWS STORY THIS MONTH...BUT DON'T EXPECT TO READ ABOUT IT IN THE AMERICAN MEDIA...!
THE ONLY LIKUDNICS LEFT NOW SEEM TO BE IN NEW YORK, TEXAS AND WASHINGTON!
Saturday, November 26, 2005
WILL MARKET HYSTERIA BE STOPPED BY DOW 11,000?
The buying hysteria on Wall Street is almost "Googlicious!"
And nothing seems to stand in the way of Google's own "Moonshot"...
What can stop the money runners from reaching their year end bonuses now!
Still, I don't know how many retail investors are actually "buying the story" about stocks...simply because there really is no story to buy... The market is going up lately, simply because it's going up.
No one seems to know why...although I have suggested it's so the money runners can "made their numbers" and year end bonuses. And perhaps to Keep the Story Alive that stocks are the "only place to be." Rememeber that old 401k "Chestnut" from back in the Bubble Daze of '99?
NEVERTHELESS, ITS UP UP AND AWAY FOR STOCKS...BUT THE NEXT BIG TEST WILL BE WHETHER DOW 11,000 CAN BE BROKEN...WITHOUT LOOKING BACK...AND WONDERING WHY!
THESE MAJOR NUMBERS HAVE A CERTAIN SOBERING EFFECT ON THE MARKET... GOOGLE CAN SOAR BETWEEN "CENTURY MARKS" WITH EASE... BUT YA GOTTA WONDER AT 400, 500, 600...WILL SOMEONE "GET REAL" AND START TO TAKE PROFITS? MAYBE...AND EVENTUALLY THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT, JUST AS IT DID WITH THOSE OLE INTERNET HOTTIES OF '99.... REMEMBER?
Right now the US economy is runnin on fumes...every macro number is like the Black Death. But the market keeps the rally going on the small stuff...brokerage upgrades, CEO comments, and creative accounting from the high risk/rollers who "just don't care" and still want to "make the money and run."
And of course there are the 401k "suckers" who flock every January...so now the "January Effect" happens in December as the Santa Claus Rally!
WALL STREET WILL DO WHATEVER IT WANTS TO DO.... AS LONG AS CHINA KEEPS WRITING THOSE CHECKS TO THE US TREASURY!!
And nothing seems to stand in the way of Google's own "Moonshot"...
What can stop the money runners from reaching their year end bonuses now!
Still, I don't know how many retail investors are actually "buying the story" about stocks...simply because there really is no story to buy... The market is going up lately, simply because it's going up.
No one seems to know why...although I have suggested it's so the money runners can "made their numbers" and year end bonuses. And perhaps to Keep the Story Alive that stocks are the "only place to be." Rememeber that old 401k "Chestnut" from back in the Bubble Daze of '99?
NEVERTHELESS, ITS UP UP AND AWAY FOR STOCKS...BUT THE NEXT BIG TEST WILL BE WHETHER DOW 11,000 CAN BE BROKEN...WITHOUT LOOKING BACK...AND WONDERING WHY!
THESE MAJOR NUMBERS HAVE A CERTAIN SOBERING EFFECT ON THE MARKET... GOOGLE CAN SOAR BETWEEN "CENTURY MARKS" WITH EASE... BUT YA GOTTA WONDER AT 400, 500, 600...WILL SOMEONE "GET REAL" AND START TO TAKE PROFITS? MAYBE...AND EVENTUALLY THE BOTTOM FALLS OUT, JUST AS IT DID WITH THOSE OLE INTERNET HOTTIES OF '99.... REMEMBER?
Right now the US economy is runnin on fumes...every macro number is like the Black Death. But the market keeps the rally going on the small stuff...brokerage upgrades, CEO comments, and creative accounting from the high risk/rollers who "just don't care" and still want to "make the money and run."
And of course there are the 401k "suckers" who flock every January...so now the "January Effect" happens in December as the Santa Claus Rally!
WALL STREET WILL DO WHATEVER IT WANTS TO DO.... AS LONG AS CHINA KEEPS WRITING THOSE CHECKS TO THE US TREASURY!!
LET MORE DIE IN IRAQ...?
As the protestors continue in Texas,
the administration has "fed" the MSM news stories that "the troops" "still support" their "mission" in Iraq... Great!
But, this implies that the protesters are "hurting the troops"...and you know what? I agree!
If these "volunteers" want to kill and mutilate Iraqi people...and be killed and mutilated in return...LET THEM!
It's not a matter of Right and Wrong to the Republicans...and most of these Bubba Republicans, whose kids are dying in Iraq, voted for Bush!
Why should we progressives have any sympathy for them? Let more of them die...let it bleed.
And let them learn their lessons "good"--so they'll never forget!
Then, by the time the 2008 elections roll around... They'll know what side their bread is butter on... Progressives simply can not "lecture" these Bubba Republicans into reasonable politics...these Bubbas "learn by doing." Progessive "lectures" by Howard Dean, et al...only cause Bubba Republicans to hate the Democrats even more!
Thus, I support the Bush Chaos in Iraq...because it's the only "cure" for misguided Republicanism in these rural working classes...
Let it Bleed...until all of the religious nonsense and racist poison is out of the American ultra-right... Let Sherman march to the sea!
Only then will Progressive Thinking have a chance in the Red States.
the administration has "fed" the MSM news stories that "the troops" "still support" their "mission" in Iraq... Great!
But, this implies that the protesters are "hurting the troops"...and you know what? I agree!
If these "volunteers" want to kill and mutilate Iraqi people...and be killed and mutilated in return...LET THEM!
It's not a matter of Right and Wrong to the Republicans...and most of these Bubba Republicans, whose kids are dying in Iraq, voted for Bush!
Why should we progressives have any sympathy for them? Let more of them die...let it bleed.
And let them learn their lessons "good"--so they'll never forget!
Then, by the time the 2008 elections roll around... They'll know what side their bread is butter on... Progressives simply can not "lecture" these Bubba Republicans into reasonable politics...these Bubbas "learn by doing." Progessive "lectures" by Howard Dean, et al...only cause Bubba Republicans to hate the Democrats even more!
Thus, I support the Bush Chaos in Iraq...because it's the only "cure" for misguided Republicanism in these rural working classes...
Let it Bleed...until all of the religious nonsense and racist poison is out of the American ultra-right... Let Sherman march to the sea!
Only then will Progressive Thinking have a chance in the Red States.
Thursday, November 24, 2005
BLACK FRIDAY....
WHO'SE BUYING WHAT, WHEN WHERE...
Hmmm....the silence is deafening...? Wassup? Where's the happy talk? Well maybe its too early yet...? Ya think?
Hmmm....the silence is deafening...? Wassup? Where's the happy talk? Well maybe its too early yet...? Ya think?
Wednesday, November 23, 2005
DOW 11,000 MOONSHOT! BUT WHERE'S THE HYPE!
The Cat must have the tongues of the market masters!
DOW 11,000 IS JUST A FEW TICKS AWAY...AND ALL THE USUAL SUSPECTS ARE JUST IGNORING IT!
WHAT GIVES....? TOO MUCH OF A "GOOD THING?" WAS THE "RALLY" "SUPPOSED" TO BE MORE STEALTH...SO IT WON'T LOOK LIKE A BLATANT ATTEMPT TO "GOOSE" THE MONEY MANAGERS BONUSES...?
Happy Days are queer again... But so what?
WHERE'S THAT HOLIDAY CHEER WE CAME TO KNOW AND LOVE DURING THE BUBBLE DAZE OF'99!!
MOONSHOT BABY! WE CAN ALWAYS FIND A REASON TO JUSTIFY IT LATER... Maybe the MickyD's "gift card!" That's the ticket....
THE STREET JUST NEEDS THE RETAIL SUCKERS TO FLOCK TO THIS TURKEY.
OR, CAN THE MARKET MASTERS SWING THE "FLOAT" ON THEIR OWN DIME THESE DAYS...?
Opps....some resistance at 10,950? WELL LET'S HOPE NOT!! How fake was the "dive" at the end of the day...? Well probably as fake as the rally at the beginning!
DOW 11,000 IS JUST A FEW TICKS AWAY...AND ALL THE USUAL SUSPECTS ARE JUST IGNORING IT!
WHAT GIVES....? TOO MUCH OF A "GOOD THING?" WAS THE "RALLY" "SUPPOSED" TO BE MORE STEALTH...SO IT WON'T LOOK LIKE A BLATANT ATTEMPT TO "GOOSE" THE MONEY MANAGERS BONUSES...?
Happy Days are queer again... But so what?
WHERE'S THAT HOLIDAY CHEER WE CAME TO KNOW AND LOVE DURING THE BUBBLE DAZE OF'99!!
MOONSHOT BABY! WE CAN ALWAYS FIND A REASON TO JUSTIFY IT LATER... Maybe the MickyD's "gift card!" That's the ticket....
THE STREET JUST NEEDS THE RETAIL SUCKERS TO FLOCK TO THIS TURKEY.
OR, CAN THE MARKET MASTERS SWING THE "FLOAT" ON THEIR OWN DIME THESE DAYS...?
Opps....some resistance at 10,950? WELL LET'S HOPE NOT!! How fake was the "dive" at the end of the day...? Well probably as fake as the rally at the beginning!
MARKET MOONSHOT LOOMS!! MOONSHOT! MOONSHOT! MOONSHOT!
Could Dow 11,500 be too low...?
Stocks are off to the MOON! Its not about fundamentals, or earnings, or the economy!
IT'S ABOUT PERFORMANCE BONUSES FOR MONEY MANAGERS!
MOONSHOT! MOONSHOT! MOONSHOT! ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS....
Stocks are off to the MOON! Its not about fundamentals, or earnings, or the economy!
IT'S ABOUT PERFORMANCE BONUSES FOR MONEY MANAGERS!
MOONSHOT! MOONSHOT! MOONSHOT! ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS....
WACKY STOCKS 'GOOGLING' FOR BONUSES...BUT BONDS GET REAL
Stocks have been "Googling" for a month now...
It seems that when the market gets going nothing can stop it... The mentality is totally Bubblicious! It's 1999 all over again...
Only this time virtually nothing is supporting the rally... Consider:
Consumers are wallowing in gloom and doom about oil, gas, debts, interest rates, real estate bubbles, and punk jobs... And the outlook for 2006 is more of the same.
The odd notion yesterday that the Fed is somehow going to stop raising rates is an example of mass hysteria...not seen since a bunch of Mexicans "saw" the Virgin on the side of an office building a few years ago...
The FED will continue raising rates...or whatever the Bank of China tells them to do. Period. There really are no other good options.
Recovering from "Greenspanomics" will take a while... And it's possible that the US economy will never recover.
The market action over the last few weeks has been totally "inside action" with stocks rallying on whatever the market masters could come up with...
HEY IT'S TIME FOR THOSE YEAR END BONUSUS FOR THE MONEY MANAGERS!
AND EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE SUCKERS WON'T FLOCK IN JANUARY ON THE CURRENT PERFORMANCE OF THE MARKETS THIS YEAR...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME TO TAKE MONEY OFF THE TABLE AFTER NEW YEARS...THAT IS IF THE "JANUARY EFFECT" ISN'T KICKING IN...
BUT IT'S ALL ABOUT YEAR END BONUSES NOW... DOW 11,500 BY NEW YEARS EVE!
IT'S ALL ABOUT WALL STREET NOW... NOT MOM AND POP OR THE RETAIL INVESTORS A/K/A/ THE SUCKERS...THOSE FOLKS ARE PRETTY MUCH ONLY WATCHING THE BANK CD RATES THESE DAYS.
It seems that when the market gets going nothing can stop it... The mentality is totally Bubblicious! It's 1999 all over again...
Only this time virtually nothing is supporting the rally... Consider:
Consumers are wallowing in gloom and doom about oil, gas, debts, interest rates, real estate bubbles, and punk jobs... And the outlook for 2006 is more of the same.
The odd notion yesterday that the Fed is somehow going to stop raising rates is an example of mass hysteria...not seen since a bunch of Mexicans "saw" the Virgin on the side of an office building a few years ago...
The FED will continue raising rates...or whatever the Bank of China tells them to do. Period. There really are no other good options.
Recovering from "Greenspanomics" will take a while... And it's possible that the US economy will never recover.
The market action over the last few weeks has been totally "inside action" with stocks rallying on whatever the market masters could come up with...
HEY IT'S TIME FOR THOSE YEAR END BONUSUS FOR THE MONEY MANAGERS!
AND EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE SUCKERS WON'T FLOCK IN JANUARY ON THE CURRENT PERFORMANCE OF THE MARKETS THIS YEAR...
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF TIME TO TAKE MONEY OFF THE TABLE AFTER NEW YEARS...THAT IS IF THE "JANUARY EFFECT" ISN'T KICKING IN...
BUT IT'S ALL ABOUT YEAR END BONUSES NOW... DOW 11,500 BY NEW YEARS EVE!
IT'S ALL ABOUT WALL STREET NOW... NOT MOM AND POP OR THE RETAIL INVESTORS A/K/A/ THE SUCKERS...THOSE FOLKS ARE PRETTY MUCH ONLY WATCHING THE BANK CD RATES THESE DAYS.
WHAT'S FRIEDMAN DRINKING....?
Tom Friedman in the NYTimes today
asks Dubya to reflect on what caused him to "quit drinking" back when he "hit bottom" many years ago...
Tom suggests that something similar might help Dubya redeem his "third term" as president... Well good luck.
Friedman opines that Iraq will have it's first "legitimate" government after the December elections... But what consititutes "legitimate...?"
Iraqi politicians are still being ferryed around the country in heliocopters with paid American body gaurds...!
The political parties are totally religion based...or clan based with no sense of common good or NATIONHOOD...
The violence is out of control...and perhaps getting worse.
And the "good result" for Dubya and the neocons will be a Shia-lead government that is favorable to Iran! With anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment rampant among all parties in Iraq!
NO WONDER SHARON, "QUIT DRINKING" AND BOLTED FROM THE LIKUDNICS!
DUBYA'S "HITTING BOTTOM" HAS CONVERTED MANY GLOBAL POLITICIANS INTO TEETOTALERS!
MAYBE TOM WOULD LIKE TO TELL US ABOUT THE NEW POLITICS IN ISRAEL...AND HOW DUBYA'S MISERABLE FAILURE IN IRAQ HELPED BRING THAT ABOUT....?
asks Dubya to reflect on what caused him to "quit drinking" back when he "hit bottom" many years ago...
Tom suggests that something similar might help Dubya redeem his "third term" as president... Well good luck.
Friedman opines that Iraq will have it's first "legitimate" government after the December elections... But what consititutes "legitimate...?"
Iraqi politicians are still being ferryed around the country in heliocopters with paid American body gaurds...!
The political parties are totally religion based...or clan based with no sense of common good or NATIONHOOD...
The violence is out of control...and perhaps getting worse.
And the "good result" for Dubya and the neocons will be a Shia-lead government that is favorable to Iran! With anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment rampant among all parties in Iraq!
NO WONDER SHARON, "QUIT DRINKING" AND BOLTED FROM THE LIKUDNICS!
DUBYA'S "HITTING BOTTOM" HAS CONVERTED MANY GLOBAL POLITICIANS INTO TEETOTALERS!
MAYBE TOM WOULD LIKE TO TELL US ABOUT THE NEW POLITICS IN ISRAEL...AND HOW DUBYA'S MISERABLE FAILURE IN IRAQ HELPED BRING THAT ABOUT....?
Tuesday, November 22, 2005
WILL REITS GET WACKED BY HIGH HEAT BILLS?
Many large apartment and office REITs pay for the heat...don't ya suppose.
And even without higher rates that could cut into income!
And even without higher rates that could cut into income!
GOLD NOT GOOGLE...!
All that glitters is,....well, GOLD!
In case you where "too young" to remember the 1999 Bubble Daze...or perhaps you have just arrived from Mars, which is very close to Earth these days...GOOGLE IS EXACTLY WHAT THE BUBBLE FELT LIKE BACK THEN....
Up Up and Up Somemore...skys the limit.
But why say Google is going to $500...why not $1000! Damn it yes! I say Google is going to $1000! Hey, why not...it's only "worth" $50...and that is assuming bubble pricing rules!
When this "emperor" steps out "naked" someday...watch out below, the selling will be like that "last second" bidding on Ebay for some "hot item."
Google will break someday...BUT I have to assume that everyone who buys it today knows that, only they think THEY will be the ones to "get out in time!"
In case you where "too young" to remember the 1999 Bubble Daze...or perhaps you have just arrived from Mars, which is very close to Earth these days...GOOGLE IS EXACTLY WHAT THE BUBBLE FELT LIKE BACK THEN....
Up Up and Up Somemore...skys the limit.
But why say Google is going to $500...why not $1000! Damn it yes! I say Google is going to $1000! Hey, why not...it's only "worth" $50...and that is assuming bubble pricing rules!
When this "emperor" steps out "naked" someday...watch out below, the selling will be like that "last second" bidding on Ebay for some "hot item."
Google will break someday...BUT I have to assume that everyone who buys it today knows that, only they think THEY will be the ones to "get out in time!"
SHARON DUMPS LUKUNICS...BUT WILL DUBYA?
Now that Sharon has dumped his religious fanatics;
The question is will Dubya follow Shraon's lead and dump the American "religious right" nutcases....?
Dubya was essentially duped into going into Iraq by pressure from Sharon and his then Likud Party...as well as the Neocon Likudnics in Washington.
And...indeed, how much of that "false intelligence" Dubya had...originated in Israel..??
Now, having justified Dubya's Disasterous Adventure in Iraq...Sharon says it was all a big mistake...
And what Israel needs is a more "centrist" approach to the middle east and the Palestinian question!
THANKS A LOT! BUT WHAT ABOUT DUBYA AND THE NEOCON LIKUDNICS WHO ADVISED HIM INTO THIS DISASTER...?
Or perhaps, Iraq has turned out so badly...that Sharon has wise up; and decided that maybe God only gave the Jews part of the Holy Land...and Israel can share the rest with the Muslims and Christians afterall...?
Too little too late...but you can learn a lot from watching what happened to the American Golem/Fool...in Iraq!
What's happening in Israel right now will be mostly "blacked out" in American media...because its generally thought to be too "dangerous" to compel the average American dimwit to think very hard about Israel's policy ties to Washington;
So, forget the NYTimes, and go directly to foreign source on this story.
The question is will Dubya follow Shraon's lead and dump the American "religious right" nutcases....?
Dubya was essentially duped into going into Iraq by pressure from Sharon and his then Likud Party...as well as the Neocon Likudnics in Washington.
And...indeed, how much of that "false intelligence" Dubya had...originated in Israel..??
Now, having justified Dubya's Disasterous Adventure in Iraq...Sharon says it was all a big mistake...
And what Israel needs is a more "centrist" approach to the middle east and the Palestinian question!
THANKS A LOT! BUT WHAT ABOUT DUBYA AND THE NEOCON LIKUDNICS WHO ADVISED HIM INTO THIS DISASTER...?
Or perhaps, Iraq has turned out so badly...that Sharon has wise up; and decided that maybe God only gave the Jews part of the Holy Land...and Israel can share the rest with the Muslims and Christians afterall...?
Too little too late...but you can learn a lot from watching what happened to the American Golem/Fool...in Iraq!
What's happening in Israel right now will be mostly "blacked out" in American media...because its generally thought to be too "dangerous" to compel the average American dimwit to think very hard about Israel's policy ties to Washington;
So, forget the NYTimes, and go directly to foreign source on this story.
METHINKS CHENEY PROTESTS TOO MUCH....?
But as a future War Crimes Defendant...he has a lot of explaining to do. So just let him keep on talking...
SIX PERCENT GAIN IN HOLIDAY SALES....?
Oh Please....!
With gas still at $2 many people will not even be able to afford the drive to grandma's house! Not to mention heating their own house...
And since the credit cards are still roasting in an open fire...they may be too hot to handle especially with the bankruptcy doors nailed shut by the Republican Kongress.
Older people may have money to spend on their grandkids... But granny had better mind the "donut hole" just in case.
The pre-holiday retail cheer has become a tradition... But the week after Thanksgiving there is usual a pall at the mall. And Kohl's is ALREADY giving away the store, so where are the "sales" going to come from?
Six percent gain in sales this year? Humbug! Three percent would be optimistic...and FLAT would be just about right.
With gas still at $2 many people will not even be able to afford the drive to grandma's house! Not to mention heating their own house...
And since the credit cards are still roasting in an open fire...they may be too hot to handle especially with the bankruptcy doors nailed shut by the Republican Kongress.
Older people may have money to spend on their grandkids... But granny had better mind the "donut hole" just in case.
The pre-holiday retail cheer has become a tradition... But the week after Thanksgiving there is usual a pall at the mall. And Kohl's is ALREADY giving away the store, so where are the "sales" going to come from?
Six percent gain in sales this year? Humbug! Three percent would be optimistic...and FLAT would be just about right.
Monday, November 21, 2005
GM HAPLESS....again
GM's actions today are too little too late.
Consider:
1. Even if the layoffs take place the workers go into the "Job Bank" and recieve most of their pay anyway...
2. Even if many more choose to "retire" that only adds to the pension costs that are sinking the auto industry in the US.
3. The foreign competition is "eating GM's lunch" in the showrooms of the nation now.
4. They have the wrong product line up...big gas guzzlers are out...fuel efficiency is in. And even "mere" $2 gas...won't help there.
5. Health Care inflaton is not being addressed ANYWHERE..IN WASHINGTON these days.
6. And last there is always the Delphi strike looming...that would be the corporate version "murder\suicide" as one commentator put it!
Sorry, we still ain't there yet...and likely the older "legacy" industries will never climb out of the wilderness as long as the Republicans stay in power in Washington...
Maybe GM will look better after the 2008 elections....? If they can hold out that long.
Consider:
1. Even if the layoffs take place the workers go into the "Job Bank" and recieve most of their pay anyway...
2. Even if many more choose to "retire" that only adds to the pension costs that are sinking the auto industry in the US.
3. The foreign competition is "eating GM's lunch" in the showrooms of the nation now.
4. They have the wrong product line up...big gas guzzlers are out...fuel efficiency is in. And even "mere" $2 gas...won't help there.
5. Health Care inflaton is not being addressed ANYWHERE..IN WASHINGTON these days.
6. And last there is always the Delphi strike looming...that would be the corporate version "murder\suicide" as one commentator put it!
Sorry, we still ain't there yet...and likely the older "legacy" industries will never climb out of the wilderness as long as the Republicans stay in power in Washington...
Maybe GM will look better after the 2008 elections....? If they can hold out that long.
MORE HARM THAN GOOD IN IRAQ...?
What Conressman Murtha might have said is:
"The US military is doing more harm than good in Iraq."
The administration is treating Iraq like some under developed nation in sub-Saharan Africa that "can't mangage" its own affairs...
But as Murtha noted, Iraqis have been practicing government for 4000 years! That's longer than the US has been around, and likely the Iraqis will do very well thanks without the "assistance" of Dubya and Rummy...for the next thousand or so years.
SIMPLY PUT, THE MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ "IS THE PROBLEM"...NOT THE "INSURGENCY" WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY FIGHTING THE OCCUPATION... TO "NOT SEE" THIS REQUIRES REASONING POWERS SELDOM FOUND OUTSIDE OF ISRAEL AND THE LIKUDNICS...!
My hunch is that if the US would bug out of Iraq...the "civil war" would be short, and the parties would come to some accomedation sooner rather than later... Perhaps even the Kurds could be persuaded to stay...with a little convincing for NATO and the US...?
Indeed it is very possible now that a pull out is a "no brainer" than the administration is merely "waiting for a politically opportune moment" to pull the plug...and start the "Victory Celebrations"...ticker tape for the returning heros etc. etc.
OF COURSE WE WON'T WANT THAT HAPPY MOMENT TO COME TO SOON BEFORE THE 2006 ELECTIONS...LEST THE VOTERS FORGET ABOUT DUBYA'S "GREAT VICTORY."
At least that seems to be the Republican game plan going forward...sans the "unforeseen unforeseeables" as Rummy might say.
MY HUNCH IS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED A "VIETNAM MOMENT" OF LATE...ITS NOT WHETHER TO WITHDRAW...MERELY WHEN TO WITHDRAQ. That's a big change in the public dialouge...thanks to Rep Murtha and others.
"The US military is doing more harm than good in Iraq."
The administration is treating Iraq like some under developed nation in sub-Saharan Africa that "can't mangage" its own affairs...
But as Murtha noted, Iraqis have been practicing government for 4000 years! That's longer than the US has been around, and likely the Iraqis will do very well thanks without the "assistance" of Dubya and Rummy...for the next thousand or so years.
SIMPLY PUT, THE MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ "IS THE PROBLEM"...NOT THE "INSURGENCY" WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY FIGHTING THE OCCUPATION... TO "NOT SEE" THIS REQUIRES REASONING POWERS SELDOM FOUND OUTSIDE OF ISRAEL AND THE LIKUDNICS...!
My hunch is that if the US would bug out of Iraq...the "civil war" would be short, and the parties would come to some accomedation sooner rather than later... Perhaps even the Kurds could be persuaded to stay...with a little convincing for NATO and the US...?
Indeed it is very possible now that a pull out is a "no brainer" than the administration is merely "waiting for a politically opportune moment" to pull the plug...and start the "Victory Celebrations"...ticker tape for the returning heros etc. etc.
OF COURSE WE WON'T WANT THAT HAPPY MOMENT TO COME TO SOON BEFORE THE 2006 ELECTIONS...LEST THE VOTERS FORGET ABOUT DUBYA'S "GREAT VICTORY."
At least that seems to be the Republican game plan going forward...sans the "unforeseen unforeseeables" as Rummy might say.
MY HUNCH IS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED A "VIETNAM MOMENT" OF LATE...ITS NOT WHETHER TO WITHDRAW...MERELY WHEN TO WITHDRAQ. That's a big change in the public dialouge...thanks to Rep Murtha and others.
GOLD FOLLOWS STOCKS HIGHER...YEAR END RALLY INTACT
Everything is coming up inflationary in the markets...
Stocks are up, up and away ALA the market masters game plan for a "year end rally." Or,...for whatever "reason of the day" the Street decides on today.
But Gold is doing very very well also??
Back in the "olden days" of 1999, stocks would go up and gold would go down... No more!
Clearly, the markets see INFLATION AND HIGHER RATES ahead... And perhaps a weaker dollar despite the best efforts of the Fed to protect the dollar from the gross excesses of Washington...
And of course the Fed wants to preserve the beloved bubble in stocks and other "assets."
So this market just wants to rally! Why? Because fish gotta swim and birds gotta fly! That's why.
And the retail investors simply must CATCH THE TOPS no matter what...! Got it?
With year end bonuses and 401k jiggering coming...stocks should continue to rally NO MATTER WHAT THE DATA POINTS SAY...AND NO MATTER IF RATES ARE GOING UP OR NOT NEXT YEAR...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS MARKET IS GOOGLING!
IT'S A MINI-BUBBLE THAT HAS NO REASON FOR BEING...EXCEPT THAT THE MARKET MASTERS WANT IT...AND THE "FLOAT" IS STAYING PLEASANTLY MANAGEABLE.
DOW 11,500 BY THE END OF THE YEAR!
...BUT SOME SERIOUS "UNPLEASANTNESS" IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2006...!
RALLY ON!
Stocks are up, up and away ALA the market masters game plan for a "year end rally." Or,...for whatever "reason of the day" the Street decides on today.
But Gold is doing very very well also??
Back in the "olden days" of 1999, stocks would go up and gold would go down... No more!
Clearly, the markets see INFLATION AND HIGHER RATES ahead... And perhaps a weaker dollar despite the best efforts of the Fed to protect the dollar from the gross excesses of Washington...
And of course the Fed wants to preserve the beloved bubble in stocks and other "assets."
So this market just wants to rally! Why? Because fish gotta swim and birds gotta fly! That's why.
And the retail investors simply must CATCH THE TOPS no matter what...! Got it?
With year end bonuses and 401k jiggering coming...stocks should continue to rally NO MATTER WHAT THE DATA POINTS SAY...AND NO MATTER IF RATES ARE GOING UP OR NOT NEXT YEAR...
SIMPLY PUT...THIS MARKET IS GOOGLING!
IT'S A MINI-BUBBLE THAT HAS NO REASON FOR BEING...EXCEPT THAT THE MARKET MASTERS WANT IT...AND THE "FLOAT" IS STAYING PLEASANTLY MANAGEABLE.
DOW 11,500 BY THE END OF THE YEAR!
...BUT SOME SERIOUS "UNPLEASANTNESS" IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2006...!
RALLY ON!
Sunday, November 20, 2005
JOEL OSTEEN IS BORING...
Is it just me or have the televangelists changed their tune lately especailly since Bush has been messing up so badly...?
Today, the message of the TV preachers seemed to be: If your life is screwed up...BLAME YOURSELF! NOT US!
And, that is a really boring message to listen to...the audience won't come back week after week to hear that!
N.B. I'm no way a born-again...I occasionally watch these guys before the Sunday talks start...solely from a morbid curiousity about what they are talking about.!
Today, the message of the TV preachers seemed to be: If your life is screwed up...BLAME YOURSELF! NOT US!
And, that is a really boring message to listen to...the audience won't come back week after week to hear that!
N.B. I'm no way a born-again...I occasionally watch these guys before the Sunday talks start...solely from a morbid curiousity about what they are talking about.!
DOES CHINA "OWN" THE US DOLLAR...?
The dollar has been "defying" macro-economics lately.
Perhaps it's time to ask if CHINA controls the dollar so much...that the Chinese "own" the US currency!
After all, if it were simply up to the MERE FED to "defend" the dollar...MACROECONOMICS would have kicked in years ago! !
CHINA CONTROLS THE US DOLLAR TO SUCH AN EXTENT NOW THAT THE DOLLAR SINKS OR SWIMS BASED ON THE POLICIES OF THE BANK OF CHINA, NOT THE US FEDERAL RESERVE! ...AND SOMEHOW, I FIND THAT A LITTLE BIT DISTRUBING...
DON'T YA THINK?
Perhaps it's time to ask if CHINA controls the dollar so much...that the Chinese "own" the US currency!
After all, if it were simply up to the MERE FED to "defend" the dollar...MACROECONOMICS would have kicked in years ago! !
CHINA CONTROLS THE US DOLLAR TO SUCH AN EXTENT NOW THAT THE DOLLAR SINKS OR SWIMS BASED ON THE POLICIES OF THE BANK OF CHINA, NOT THE US FEDERAL RESERVE! ...AND SOMEHOW, I FIND THAT A LITTLE BIT DISTRUBING...
DON'T YA THINK?
Zarqawi Death won't stop insurgency...
The death of Zarqawi
could be viewed as yet another "Top Gun" moment in Dubya's ill-planned war...
The "personalization" of the conflict is necessary to keep the public focused on some "evil one." And not focused on the fact that innocent people are dying everyday.
Indeed, if Zarqawi didn't exist we and the Insurgents might have to "invent him!" Consider;
The Luddites in Old England had a "fictional leader"... to wit: one, Ned Ludd, who always managed to "flee in the nick of time" just before the King's Men showed up with an arrest warrant...!
This, of course, keeps the "real leaders" of the rebellion as "just operatives" --and therefore less culpable in the eyes of the law!
Fictional leaders are very useful TO BOTH SIDES in any conflict
could be viewed as yet another "Top Gun" moment in Dubya's ill-planned war...
The "personalization" of the conflict is necessary to keep the public focused on some "evil one." And not focused on the fact that innocent people are dying everyday.
Indeed, if Zarqawi didn't exist we and the Insurgents might have to "invent him!" Consider;
The Luddites in Old England had a "fictional leader"... to wit: one, Ned Ludd, who always managed to "flee in the nick of time" just before the King's Men showed up with an arrest warrant...!
This, of course, keeps the "real leaders" of the rebellion as "just operatives" --and therefore less culpable in the eyes of the law!
Fictional leaders are very useful TO BOTH SIDES in any conflict
SHARON TO LEAVE LIKUD...?
Anything that moves Israel to the center will be a great help to Washington!
THE DEMOCRACY MYTH IN IRAQ...
One of the more bizzare notions that is constantly floated by Washington in the MSM is the idea that Iraq is somehow "becoming demcratic."
Of course what is really happening is the Shia are voting for Shias and the Sunnis are either not voting or voting for Sunnis...with the Kurds voting for Kurds....
NOWADAYS, THERE IS ALMOST NO SENSE OF "IRAQ" AS A COHESIVE NATION ...WITH AN IDENTITY AND DESTINY GREATER THAN THE INTERESTS OF THE VARIOUS VOTING BLOCS!
In a way Iraq resembles the US....! Divided between the Red States and the Blue States.
So the idea that US forces can leave when: "The Iraqi army can defend the new Iraq" is THEREFORE simply a nonsense statement...
For an army to defend ANYTHING it has to exist first...and the "notion" of Iraq as an entity seperate for the various factions simply does not exist... And perhaps it never did...outside of the persona of Saddam!
The so-called "government" is seen as simply an construct of the US occupation... Indeed, the "government" in Iraq is unable to leave the protected "green zone" without fear of serious attack. How can it ever "govern?"
In truth, old Iraq has devolved into an ANARCHY from which it will likely never recover...
Now there will be government in Iraq someday... But it won't be the pro American, pro Israeli government that the Neocons envisioned...
Congressman Murtha's suggestion that the US military "withdraw to the outskirts" of Iraq and "wait for a call for help" is also a little bit naieve... Who will the US intervene in favor of...? The pro-Iranian Shia? The independance minded Kurds...? Or the "evil" Sunnis?
SIMPLY PUT, THE US DOES NOT HAVE A CONTITUENCY IN IRAQ! And likely it never did! There was simply the thought that Sharon wanted Saddam gone..."to protect Israel."
Unlike in Afghanistan, where the US intervened on behalf of the "drug lords!" a/k/a "The Northern Alliance."
And as a result the streets of Europe are filled with cheap high quaility heroin now! Your Tax Dollars at work! No such luck in Iraq!
IRAQ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS DECENT INTO ANARCHY AS LONG AS THE US MILITARY IS PRESENT.... AFTERWARDS?
Perhaps a brief civil war...with the eventual partition of old Iraq into the Shia/Iranian sector and the Sunni/Syrian sector... And with the Kurds opting for independance...but perhaps allowing the US "basing rights" in new Kurdistan.
UNLESS AND UNTIL THE THINKING IN WASHINGTON ACCEPTS THIS STARK REALITY....LITTLE PROGRESS WILL BE MADE. And the body bags will keep on coming.
Ultimately, there may perhaps be a form of "democracy" in the three regions of old Iraq...
Perhaps via clan and tribal conclaves or other traditional forms of government native to the region... But a US style democracy with "blue states and "red states?" Probably never.
That's the "Democracy Myth" in Iraq...and it was a costly mistake from which the west will only recover once the current administration is out of power for good.
Of course what is really happening is the Shia are voting for Shias and the Sunnis are either not voting or voting for Sunnis...with the Kurds voting for Kurds....
NOWADAYS, THERE IS ALMOST NO SENSE OF "IRAQ" AS A COHESIVE NATION ...WITH AN IDENTITY AND DESTINY GREATER THAN THE INTERESTS OF THE VARIOUS VOTING BLOCS!
In a way Iraq resembles the US....! Divided between the Red States and the Blue States.
So the idea that US forces can leave when: "The Iraqi army can defend the new Iraq" is THEREFORE simply a nonsense statement...
For an army to defend ANYTHING it has to exist first...and the "notion" of Iraq as an entity seperate for the various factions simply does not exist... And perhaps it never did...outside of the persona of Saddam!
The so-called "government" is seen as simply an construct of the US occupation... Indeed, the "government" in Iraq is unable to leave the protected "green zone" without fear of serious attack. How can it ever "govern?"
In truth, old Iraq has devolved into an ANARCHY from which it will likely never recover...
Now there will be government in Iraq someday... But it won't be the pro American, pro Israeli government that the Neocons envisioned...
Congressman Murtha's suggestion that the US military "withdraw to the outskirts" of Iraq and "wait for a call for help" is also a little bit naieve... Who will the US intervene in favor of...? The pro-Iranian Shia? The independance minded Kurds...? Or the "evil" Sunnis?
SIMPLY PUT, THE US DOES NOT HAVE A CONTITUENCY IN IRAQ! And likely it never did! There was simply the thought that Sharon wanted Saddam gone..."to protect Israel."
Unlike in Afghanistan, where the US intervened on behalf of the "drug lords!" a/k/a "The Northern Alliance."
And as a result the streets of Europe are filled with cheap high quaility heroin now! Your Tax Dollars at work! No such luck in Iraq!
IRAQ WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ITS DECENT INTO ANARCHY AS LONG AS THE US MILITARY IS PRESENT.... AFTERWARDS?
Perhaps a brief civil war...with the eventual partition of old Iraq into the Shia/Iranian sector and the Sunni/Syrian sector... And with the Kurds opting for independance...but perhaps allowing the US "basing rights" in new Kurdistan.
UNLESS AND UNTIL THE THINKING IN WASHINGTON ACCEPTS THIS STARK REALITY....LITTLE PROGRESS WILL BE MADE. And the body bags will keep on coming.
Ultimately, there may perhaps be a form of "democracy" in the three regions of old Iraq...
Perhaps via clan and tribal conclaves or other traditional forms of government native to the region... But a US style democracy with "blue states and "red states?" Probably never.
That's the "Democracy Myth" in Iraq...and it was a costly mistake from which the west will only recover once the current administration is out of power for good.
Friday, November 18, 2005
DAILY KOS...ONLY IN AMERICA...?
It's amazing how little interest there is in BIG BLOGS like Daily Kos...outside of the US!
Over 99% of viewers of KOS are in North America... Alas, the whole world is not watching
Over 99% of viewers of KOS are in North America... Alas, the whole world is not watching
GOOGLE, A ONE STOCK BUBBLE?
The ENTIRE mania mentality of the 1999 Bubble seems to be concentrated in One Stock!
GOLD RISING. OIL FALLING?
Perhaps Greenspan's comments on the EVENTUAL weak dollar are to blame...
But Gold is acting very strangely of late.
But Gold is acting very strangely of late.
MURTHA COMMENTS...HOW DOES IT ALL END?
Given the wave of commentary against current conditions in Iraq...one has to wonder how does this all end.
Clearly, Dubya & Co and the Neocons made a horrible mistake... But what now...how to you restore Iraq as a viable nation?
Perhaps you don't...!
The notion of US forces "fighting" to install an Iranian backed Shia government in Baghdad...and calling THAT success is outrageous!
But the Sunnis, our old allies, are now "the enemy!"
Perhaps the only way out is through the Kurds...and an INDEPENDANT KURDISTAN.
The Kurds would certainly "welcome" US forces to stay and "protect" the oil fields which the Kurds now seek to control in the north part of old Iraq, (Now de-facto Kurdistan).
Absent using the Kurds as a "way out"...the only other "end game" for the war is to have Dubya and the Neocon fabricators of this unmitigated disaster tried (eventually) as war criminals for starting an unlawful war...because the old Iraq is no more...and it will never be restored.
Saddam's Iraq is gone! Like it or not...it will never be put back in place.
So why not simply TAKE THE NORTHERN OIL FIELDS AND RUN....!
Then, Declare the bottom two thirds of Iraq "a democracy," and move US forces into the New Kurdistan to "stabilize" things, (Turkey would surely like to have an ally in the New Kurdistan).
Let the Sunnis and the Shias fight it out? Then, let the UN sort it all out later.
Clearly, Dubya & Co and the Neocons made a horrible mistake... But what now...how to you restore Iraq as a viable nation?
Perhaps you don't...!
The notion of US forces "fighting" to install an Iranian backed Shia government in Baghdad...and calling THAT success is outrageous!
But the Sunnis, our old allies, are now "the enemy!"
Perhaps the only way out is through the Kurds...and an INDEPENDANT KURDISTAN.
The Kurds would certainly "welcome" US forces to stay and "protect" the oil fields which the Kurds now seek to control in the north part of old Iraq, (Now de-facto Kurdistan).
Absent using the Kurds as a "way out"...the only other "end game" for the war is to have Dubya and the Neocon fabricators of this unmitigated disaster tried (eventually) as war criminals for starting an unlawful war...because the old Iraq is no more...and it will never be restored.
Saddam's Iraq is gone! Like it or not...it will never be put back in place.
So why not simply TAKE THE NORTHERN OIL FIELDS AND RUN....!
Then, Declare the bottom two thirds of Iraq "a democracy," and move US forces into the New Kurdistan to "stabilize" things, (Turkey would surely like to have an ally in the New Kurdistan).
Let the Sunnis and the Shias fight it out? Then, let the UN sort it all out later.
Thursday, November 17, 2005
TIMETABLE FOR IRAQ?...ONLY ETHNIC CLEANSING POSSIBLE NOW?
The NYTimes editorial in the title link is the gloomiest yet about Iraq...
Clearly, Dubya and the Neocons have not noticed that SADDAM'S IRAQ NO LONGER EXISTS....
And bringing back Saddam's Iraq now will be like putting toothpaste back into the tube! It simply ain't gonna happen.
The news cycle goes from bad to worse on a daily basis now... And the Neocons seem to have left Dubya in a hopeless condition...with no valid exit strategy possible now.
There will VERY LIKELY be ETHNIC CLEANSING in Iraq that will make Kosovo and Yugoslavia look like a walk in the park! Right now the US is trying to "cleanse" the center of Iraq of all Sunnis...to make Baghdad "safe" for the new Shia government...
Of course, the Kurds are smiling knowingly these days because...INDEPENDANCE--WITH THE NORTHERN OIL FIELDS IS ALMOST ASSURED!
Clearly the Likud notion that getting rid of Saddam would "help Israel" was woefully wrong... Indeed anti American anti Israel sentiment is growing stronger by the day.
The only "scenario" that is still "in play" is the Evangelical notion that if Armageddon happens the Jews will convert to Jesus! But somehow I suspect that is no what Wolfie and the American Likudnics had in mind...?
Clearly, Dubya and the Neocons have not noticed that SADDAM'S IRAQ NO LONGER EXISTS....
And bringing back Saddam's Iraq now will be like putting toothpaste back into the tube! It simply ain't gonna happen.
The news cycle goes from bad to worse on a daily basis now... And the Neocons seem to have left Dubya in a hopeless condition...with no valid exit strategy possible now.
There will VERY LIKELY be ETHNIC CLEANSING in Iraq that will make Kosovo and Yugoslavia look like a walk in the park! Right now the US is trying to "cleanse" the center of Iraq of all Sunnis...to make Baghdad "safe" for the new Shia government...
Of course, the Kurds are smiling knowingly these days because...INDEPENDANCE--WITH THE NORTHERN OIL FIELDS IS ALMOST ASSURED!
Clearly the Likud notion that getting rid of Saddam would "help Israel" was woefully wrong... Indeed anti American anti Israel sentiment is growing stronger by the day.
The only "scenario" that is still "in play" is the Evangelical notion that if Armageddon happens the Jews will convert to Jesus! But somehow I suspect that is no what Wolfie and the American Likudnics had in mind...?
TARGET QUEERS YEAR END RALLY?
Wall Street wants its rally...but it needs some "data points" to pull it off.
The Target "basket check" was found wanting...
And maybe Walmart is "just optimistic" about holiday sales...as is the right of every Retailer prior to the SECOND WEEKEND after Thanksgiving... Then the Gloom and Doom sets in per usual.
Still, at Kohl's the current FIFTY PERCENT OFF STORE-WIDE seems to have a gathered crowd. Leave it to Kohls to be the first to jump ship.
Kohl's obviously isn't waiting to see if the consumers will bite at "full price" ...whatever that is nowadays!
Also, this REALLY COLD weather is kicking in with a vengence... And alas, the Winter of our discontent with huge heating bills looms.
With the gas meters spinning like a 78 rpm record...many people may have second thoughts about wild spending sprees, before the FIRST BIG GAS BILL hits the mailbox...
I mean what EXACTLY does a 50% hike in natural gas prices feel like,...or was it 100%...whatever! And the last time I check gasoline was still nicely over $2 per gallon.
Finally, the huge run up in gold looks very suspicious...! Does someone know something?
Gold is acting very strangely...even for someone of my gloomy tendencies. Stay tuned...
The Target "basket check" was found wanting...
And maybe Walmart is "just optimistic" about holiday sales...as is the right of every Retailer prior to the SECOND WEEKEND after Thanksgiving... Then the Gloom and Doom sets in per usual.
Still, at Kohl's the current FIFTY PERCENT OFF STORE-WIDE seems to have a gathered crowd. Leave it to Kohls to be the first to jump ship.
Kohl's obviously isn't waiting to see if the consumers will bite at "full price" ...whatever that is nowadays!
Also, this REALLY COLD weather is kicking in with a vengence... And alas, the Winter of our discontent with huge heating bills looms.
With the gas meters spinning like a 78 rpm record...many people may have second thoughts about wild spending sprees, before the FIRST BIG GAS BILL hits the mailbox...
I mean what EXACTLY does a 50% hike in natural gas prices feel like,...or was it 100%...whatever! And the last time I check gasoline was still nicely over $2 per gallon.
Finally, the huge run up in gold looks very suspicious...! Does someone know something?
Gold is acting very strangely...even for someone of my gloomy tendencies. Stay tuned...
WHAT'S WITH GOLD....?
Up Up and away.... Very odd action here! Whats up? $500 dollar gold soon? How does that make for cheaper gas?
Perhaps the dollar might be leading ALL PAPER ASSETS down now... in a stealth "devaluation?" That could "explain" golds recent run up? Still:
This new Fed chariman has a lot of explaining to do before the markets decide how to react...
My hunch is that rates continue rising well into 2006 because there simply is no reason to keep the Greenspan Bubbles going...if the bottom isn't falling out of the "real" economy...and it isn't!
Fed Funds may have to go all the way to 7%...and drag the bond market along kicking and screaming!
Perhaps the dollar might be leading ALL PAPER ASSETS down now... in a stealth "devaluation?" That could "explain" golds recent run up? Still:
This new Fed chariman has a lot of explaining to do before the markets decide how to react...
My hunch is that rates continue rising well into 2006 because there simply is no reason to keep the Greenspan Bubbles going...if the bottom isn't falling out of the "real" economy...and it isn't!
Fed Funds may have to go all the way to 7%...and drag the bond market along kicking and screaming!
Tuesday, November 15, 2005
BUT, BONDS NEED TO TANK NOW...
If the BIG RALLY is going to happen in stocks...?
BONDS NEED TO TANK NOW! AND GOLD SHOULD ALSO RALLY TO REFLECT THE NEW "RE-FLATION" MENTALITY OF THE BERNANKE FED...!
A ten year bond paying 6%++ by Easter is a real possiblity now!
BONDS NEED TO TANK NOW! AND GOLD SHOULD ALSO RALLY TO REFLECT THE NEW "RE-FLATION" MENTALITY OF THE BERNANKE FED...!
A ten year bond paying 6%++ by Easter is a real possiblity now!
WHERE IN THE WORLD IS CONDI...
And what's she REALLY up to...?
Perhaps "ending the war" is JOB ONE for Dubya & Co. in 2006?
If the Israeli ultra-right can hold off on annexing the West Bank and "rebuilding the Temple" for a few more years... Peace in our time could be possible...perhaps even as soon as the 2006 elections!
Perhaps "ending the war" is JOB ONE for Dubya & Co. in 2006?
If the Israeli ultra-right can hold off on annexing the West Bank and "rebuilding the Temple" for a few more years... Peace in our time could be possible...perhaps even as soon as the 2006 elections!
MARKETS SEEK ECONOMICS OF 'HAPPY FACE.' Spin is in for the rest of 2005!
The markets daily quest for something, anything, to be happy about is almost a gaurantee of higher stock prices...for the rest of this year.
It's sort of like Google hitting to $400...everyone knows it will...
But everyone also knows it's a nutty price to pay for that stock. But, the markets aren't really rational in the short term...and they have their own "internal logic" which is totally disconnected from reality most of the time.
One thing that the market insists on is that: THE RETAIL SUCKERS NEVER GET A BREAK!
With the end of the year approaching, many people will be reviewing their 401ks and bonuses...with an eye to "investing" them...
Sometimes that means buying stocks...and of course the market masters are happy to oblige.
Hence, the reliable "run up" in prices whenever it is thought on the Street that the "Retail Suckers will be Flocking."
It is possible that with some very selective news filtering...and with timely brokerage "upgrades," and a little CEO double-speak...assisted by plenty of "creative accounting" ---the markets could rally "to show" a gain on the Dow and other major indexes "for the year."
Of course, if that fiction works out...there is always the "January Effect."
This is a market that has had more than it's share of "reality" this year...
The quagmire war, the twin decificts, the Fed (which now promises to be more market sensitive, "just like Greenspan was") and a punk consumer struggling with high, now "non-dischargeable," debt, and a really poor job, wage growth situation, and the Bush "approval numbers"...etc.
But no matter...this is a market that wants the Economics of Happy Face...and it's going to get it...just as long as no one panics and "gets too real" about things going forward...
So, Spin is In for the rest of 2005!
DOW 11,500 BY DECEMBER 31! ENJOY!
Postscript: A good time to lighten up...if "they'll" let you?
It's sort of like Google hitting to $400...everyone knows it will...
But everyone also knows it's a nutty price to pay for that stock. But, the markets aren't really rational in the short term...and they have their own "internal logic" which is totally disconnected from reality most of the time.
One thing that the market insists on is that: THE RETAIL SUCKERS NEVER GET A BREAK!
With the end of the year approaching, many people will be reviewing their 401ks and bonuses...with an eye to "investing" them...
Sometimes that means buying stocks...and of course the market masters are happy to oblige.
Hence, the reliable "run up" in prices whenever it is thought on the Street that the "Retail Suckers will be Flocking."
It is possible that with some very selective news filtering...and with timely brokerage "upgrades," and a little CEO double-speak...assisted by plenty of "creative accounting" ---the markets could rally "to show" a gain on the Dow and other major indexes "for the year."
Of course, if that fiction works out...there is always the "January Effect."
This is a market that has had more than it's share of "reality" this year...
The quagmire war, the twin decificts, the Fed (which now promises to be more market sensitive, "just like Greenspan was") and a punk consumer struggling with high, now "non-dischargeable," debt, and a really poor job, wage growth situation, and the Bush "approval numbers"...etc.
But no matter...this is a market that wants the Economics of Happy Face...and it's going to get it...just as long as no one panics and "gets too real" about things going forward...
So, Spin is In for the rest of 2005!
DOW 11,500 BY DECEMBER 31! ENJOY!
Postscript: A good time to lighten up...if "they'll" let you?
Monday, November 14, 2005
THE WALMART PARADOX...or thrift shop cadillacs!
The odd thing about Walmart is that IF PEOPLE SHOP ANYWHERE...they probably shop at Walmart...
It's easier. It's everywhere. But it's NOT really a proxy for retailing in the US!
Walmart is in effect stealing business from other retailers everyday...
OK Forget the mom and pop stores that try to compete with Walmart...they are doomed.
But even other high and low end retailers are competeing with Walmart now....
I've noticed that local "thrift shops" are very busy...and the cars in the parking lot are not "junkers" ....rather thrift shops are "catering" to folks driving Escalades! Mercedes! and even an occasional Hummer!
Now I realize that "vin is in" and that thrift shops are not just for poor people anymore...
Indeed, the "poor" in America have quit shopping years ago! You never see "poor folks" in shopping malls or big box stores these days... And, the truly poor seem to be hanging out alot at libraries..."just to keep warm."
So, my hunch is that retailing is COMPRESSING down to just a few people with a little money to spend... And everyone wants a bargain...even if it's "vintage" stuff at the local thrift/re-sale shops!
It's easier. It's everywhere. But it's NOT really a proxy for retailing in the US!
Walmart is in effect stealing business from other retailers everyday...
OK Forget the mom and pop stores that try to compete with Walmart...they are doomed.
But even other high and low end retailers are competeing with Walmart now....
I've noticed that local "thrift shops" are very busy...and the cars in the parking lot are not "junkers" ....rather thrift shops are "catering" to folks driving Escalades! Mercedes! and even an occasional Hummer!
Now I realize that "vin is in" and that thrift shops are not just for poor people anymore...
Indeed, the "poor" in America have quit shopping years ago! You never see "poor folks" in shopping malls or big box stores these days... And, the truly poor seem to be hanging out alot at libraries..."just to keep warm."
So, my hunch is that retailing is COMPRESSING down to just a few people with a little money to spend... And everyone wants a bargain...even if it's "vintage" stuff at the local thrift/re-sale shops!
WHAT KRUGMAN SHOULD HAVE SAID....
In Today's NYTimes;
Krugman notes AGAIN that the current health care system in the US is totally unsustainable...
In short Kruggie notes that: ONLY PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY VERY SICK CAN "AFFORD" HEALTH INSURANCE TODAY...!
He coulld have extended that to ALL INSURANCE!
The only people who can "afford" fire insurance or liability insurance are those who WILL HAVE A FIRE...OR LOSS...GAURANTEED!
WHO ELSE COULD AFFORD TO PAY THE EXORBITANT PREMIUMS!
Alas, Banks and Insurance companies are destroying the US economy almost exculsively! With a little help from the "secretly subsidized" sectors like defense and oil companies!
Krugman again bemoans that VIRTUALLY EVERY OTHER MAJOR NATION AS ALREADY SOLVED THEIR HEALTH CARE ISSUES...
...except of course the bassakward Americans! Krugman seems to be our "resident truth teller" these days...and like most truth tellers the only way he gets away with it is because the elites know that no one takes anything he says seriously!
Krugman notes AGAIN that the current health care system in the US is totally unsustainable...
In short Kruggie notes that: ONLY PEOPLE WHO ARE VERY VERY SICK CAN "AFFORD" HEALTH INSURANCE TODAY...!
He coulld have extended that to ALL INSURANCE!
The only people who can "afford" fire insurance or liability insurance are those who WILL HAVE A FIRE...OR LOSS...GAURANTEED!
WHO ELSE COULD AFFORD TO PAY THE EXORBITANT PREMIUMS!
Alas, Banks and Insurance companies are destroying the US economy almost exculsively! With a little help from the "secretly subsidized" sectors like defense and oil companies!
Krugman again bemoans that VIRTUALLY EVERY OTHER MAJOR NATION AS ALREADY SOLVED THEIR HEALTH CARE ISSUES...
...except of course the bassakward Americans! Krugman seems to be our "resident truth teller" these days...and like most truth tellers the only way he gets away with it is because the elites know that no one takes anything he says seriously!
GREENSPAN WARNS: 'At some point..."
More too little too late from our modern day "John Law" of Bubblenomics!
Read it here ....at some point.
Read it here ....at some point.
Sunday, November 13, 2005
IS PARIS BURNING...?
Curiously, the Muslims of France could be taking the CLASH OF CULTURES to it's next level...?
Instead of isolated terrorism from hidden terror cells...the future of the Muslim clashes with the West could take the form of large-scale open and internal rebellion...inside the western nations themselves!
This is a totally unexpected consequence of "radical Islam"...!
Perhaps it would behoove the west to consider the possiblity of internal Muslim dissent; because if demographics is destiny...the west could be in for something totally outside the box...
Namely, an internal Muslim rebellion, and not external acts of terrorism.
Instead of isolated terrorism from hidden terror cells...the future of the Muslim clashes with the West could take the form of large-scale open and internal rebellion...inside the western nations themselves!
This is a totally unexpected consequence of "radical Islam"...!
Perhaps it would behoove the west to consider the possiblity of internal Muslim dissent; because if demographics is destiny...the west could be in for something totally outside the box...
Namely, an internal Muslim rebellion, and not external acts of terrorism.
DEAN vs. MELMAN...
Dr. Dean did well on the Sunday talks... Melman seemed to be grasping at straws today...
Clearly the public is wising up... The Republican "wedge issues" like gays, flag burning and religion don't seem to be getting the traction they once did!
Is anyone else getting a case of "McCain Fatigue?" I know I am...that guy is so wishy-washy and "poll driven" it's truly pathetic...
Clearly the public is wising up... The Republican "wedge issues" like gays, flag burning and religion don't seem to be getting the traction they once did!
Is anyone else getting a case of "McCain Fatigue?" I know I am...that guy is so wishy-washy and "poll driven" it's truly pathetic...
IS WALL STREET'S RALLY SUSTAINABLE...?
Probably not...
Still the float seems to be "manageable" by the market masters and it will be interesting to see how long they can continue the current "rally" in the face of higher rates and a likely tapped out consumer...
I was in a Walmart in a medium sized rural town on Friday nite...and the cashiers were standing around with nothing to do!
Furthermore the shopping carts seemed to be filled with "necessities" like diapers, food stuffs NO MATTER which department people were in... So when it comes to clothing and housewares and other dry goods...most people where "just looking!"
Retailing seems to be distressed outside of necessities... And that is something the market masters have no control over...
Still the float seems to be "manageable" by the market masters and it will be interesting to see how long they can continue the current "rally" in the face of higher rates and a likely tapped out consumer...
I was in a Walmart in a medium sized rural town on Friday nite...and the cashiers were standing around with nothing to do!
Furthermore the shopping carts seemed to be filled with "necessities" like diapers, food stuffs NO MATTER which department people were in... So when it comes to clothing and housewares and other dry goods...most people where "just looking!"
Retailing seems to be distressed outside of necessities... And that is something the market masters have no control over...
AMERICA HATERS FOR BUSH...?
We have reached the sad state of affairs where those who hate America most...would be most inclined to support Bush policies...domestically and in foreign affairs...
Dubya has put the Republicans in an untenable position for the 2006 elections.
Health care, jobs and Wall Street are almost out of Washington's control...
While the middle east gets worse by the day...
Democrats are reluctant to put forward their "agenda" because it involves raising taxes on the upper classes... But the Republican agenda of more tax cuts and more spending with an out of control foreign policy is even worse.
Clearly the Democrats can win by simply being non-Republicans in 2006...this will become clearer as 2006 begins...and by November...? A Democratic sweep of both houses of Kongress seems not only doable...but likely.
Dubya has put the Republicans in an untenable position for the 2006 elections.
Health care, jobs and Wall Street are almost out of Washington's control...
While the middle east gets worse by the day...
Democrats are reluctant to put forward their "agenda" because it involves raising taxes on the upper classes... But the Republican agenda of more tax cuts and more spending with an out of control foreign policy is even worse.
Clearly the Democrats can win by simply being non-Republicans in 2006...this will become clearer as 2006 begins...and by November...? A Democratic sweep of both houses of Kongress seems not only doable...but likely.
Thursday, November 10, 2005
DUBYA, JORDAN AND THE NEOCONS...
Clearly the middle east is becoming more unstable everyday...
Now the trouble is in Jordan...as Dubya and the Neocons continue to reap the harvest of the Iraq War.
It seems that every country in the middle east, and particularly those around Iraq, are becoming potential "powder kegs."
Attempts are being made at the UN to destablizes Syria...and Perhaps Iran as well. Lebanon has a very uneasy peace. And Iraq has become the central focus of the Muslim Jihadi.
Now comes Jordan...which is trying to "spin" it's internal politics for western media consumption... Still, it is estimated that 90% of Jordanians are anti-western and especially anti-American.
The Neocons have put a lot on Dubya's plate in their effort to made the US into Sharon's Golem in the region...
But is Israel really more safe now...without Saddam...than before the war; and before anti-American unrest spread throughout the middle east?
And where are those Neocons? They DUPED DUBYA, then split, EN MASSE, after the fall of Baghdad!
Was it EVER really about WMD...or "democratization"...?
Or was it always just a Neocon plot to get the US entangled in Israel's troubles with respect to the west bank annexation hopes and dreams of the Likud and the Israeli Ultra-right?
Now the trouble is in Jordan...as Dubya and the Neocons continue to reap the harvest of the Iraq War.
It seems that every country in the middle east, and particularly those around Iraq, are becoming potential "powder kegs."
Attempts are being made at the UN to destablizes Syria...and Perhaps Iran as well. Lebanon has a very uneasy peace. And Iraq has become the central focus of the Muslim Jihadi.
Now comes Jordan...which is trying to "spin" it's internal politics for western media consumption... Still, it is estimated that 90% of Jordanians are anti-western and especially anti-American.
The Neocons have put a lot on Dubya's plate in their effort to made the US into Sharon's Golem in the region...
But is Israel really more safe now...without Saddam...than before the war; and before anti-American unrest spread throughout the middle east?
And where are those Neocons? They DUPED DUBYA, then split, EN MASSE, after the fall of Baghdad!
Was it EVER really about WMD...or "democratization"...?
Or was it always just a Neocon plot to get the US entangled in Israel's troubles with respect to the west bank annexation hopes and dreams of the Likud and the Israeli Ultra-right?
TRADE DEFICIT OUT OF CONTROL...will bonds react?
At some point...we are going to have to admit that this TRADE DEFICIT is permanent...
And it ain't going away...ever!
So, does this mean that China eventually owns the US?
This notion that "things will correct automatically," which is popular with the FED, has the small problem in that it would also mean a deep global depression; as consumption in the US and production in China and elsewhere plummets...
Still, the powers that be are content with simply saying: "Sooner or later...." and just leaving it at that...
Well, sooner or later has a nasty habit of happening a lot sooner than many 'experts' think...
My hunch is that 2006 is going to show signs of real trouble sooner rather than later... Note also that foreigners already own 50% of outstanding US bonds...and that they have been buying LESS BONDS lately, than they used to in the past...although foreigner central banks are still very, very large buyers and holders of US bonds...
And it ain't going away...ever!
So, does this mean that China eventually owns the US?
This notion that "things will correct automatically," which is popular with the FED, has the small problem in that it would also mean a deep global depression; as consumption in the US and production in China and elsewhere plummets...
Still, the powers that be are content with simply saying: "Sooner or later...." and just leaving it at that...
Well, sooner or later has a nasty habit of happening a lot sooner than many 'experts' think...
My hunch is that 2006 is going to show signs of real trouble sooner rather than later... Note also that foreigners already own 50% of outstanding US bonds...and that they have been buying LESS BONDS lately, than they used to in the past...although foreigner central banks are still very, very large buyers and holders of US bonds...
Wednesday, November 9, 2005
THE ZEN OF POLITICS, or a Liberal Religion?
Democrats and Progressives are often seen as being "non-religious."
While Republicans are seen as the "party of religion" and the "religious."
But nothing could be further from the truth...!
Consider:
Most world religions have a "mystical tradition" that underlays the "popular version" that is taught to the public in their churchs... In Christianity there are the teachings of St. John of the Cross, in Judaism there is the Kabbala...and there are similar mysticisms in the Islamic teachings and in Buddhism.
In this mystical tradition, the notion of "dualism" vs. "oneness" or "unity" is most often the central idea.
Dualism almost is always "bad" in the mystical tradition, and oneness or unity is always "good. "
But applied to our political situation today...which is the party of "dualism?" --The Republicans!
The Republicans and their "conservative faithful" in the evangelical churchs see the world as "us against them."
They use "wedge issues" like gay bashing, abortion, and racism to divide the people, and create "dualism" in the public mind. This dualism leads naturally to fear, hate and war.
Or, simply put to Bush Republicans!
Liberals, on the other hand, seek to unify the entire electorate for some "common good"
True,...exactly what that is, and how to achieve it is key to most liberal discussions. Liberals are the party of "we" and "us"...not of "me and "mine."
Liberals and Progressives seek a certain "oneness" as a goal in their public discussions.
This is nearly always absent from conservative commentators and politics...
Therefore, the liberal tradition is "in sync" with the mystical traditions of most religous teachings! Oneness. Unity. Non-Duality.
And, if this "Zen of Politics" is in any way a true picture of things...
DEMOCRATS ARE THE PARTY OF RELIGION! ...NOT REPUBLICANS!
I realize that much of this is a little too "metaphysical" for most people's taste...but I am getting a little sick of this "holier than thou" nonsense being spouted by so-called "religious conservatives," who are totally ignorant of the deeper meaning in their religions.
And espouse and exploit "false teachings" for their own greed and quest for power...
While Republicans are seen as the "party of religion" and the "religious."
But nothing could be further from the truth...!
Consider:
Most world religions have a "mystical tradition" that underlays the "popular version" that is taught to the public in their churchs... In Christianity there are the teachings of St. John of the Cross, in Judaism there is the Kabbala...and there are similar mysticisms in the Islamic teachings and in Buddhism.
In this mystical tradition, the notion of "dualism" vs. "oneness" or "unity" is most often the central idea.
Dualism almost is always "bad" in the mystical tradition, and oneness or unity is always "good. "
But applied to our political situation today...which is the party of "dualism?" --The Republicans!
The Republicans and their "conservative faithful" in the evangelical churchs see the world as "us against them."
They use "wedge issues" like gay bashing, abortion, and racism to divide the people, and create "dualism" in the public mind. This dualism leads naturally to fear, hate and war.
Or, simply put to Bush Republicans!
Liberals, on the other hand, seek to unify the entire electorate for some "common good"
True,...exactly what that is, and how to achieve it is key to most liberal discussions. Liberals are the party of "we" and "us"...not of "me and "mine."
Liberals and Progressives seek a certain "oneness" as a goal in their public discussions.
This is nearly always absent from conservative commentators and politics...
Therefore, the liberal tradition is "in sync" with the mystical traditions of most religous teachings! Oneness. Unity. Non-Duality.
And, if this "Zen of Politics" is in any way a true picture of things...
DEMOCRATS ARE THE PARTY OF RELIGION! ...NOT REPUBLICANS!
I realize that much of this is a little too "metaphysical" for most people's taste...but I am getting a little sick of this "holier than thou" nonsense being spouted by so-called "religious conservatives," who are totally ignorant of the deeper meaning in their religions.
And espouse and exploit "false teachings" for their own greed and quest for power...
Tuesday, November 8, 2005
BIRD FLU AND HERD IMMUNITY...
The title link provides some more gloom and doom about the inevitabiity of a Bird Flu Pandemic... But consider:
We, you and I, are ALL decended from survivors of the last Bird Flu Pandemic in 1918...could we not have a certain genetic propensity to survive this outbread as well?
It is thought that the reason that Africans are more prone to AIDS than Europeans is that the BLACK DEATH of the 1300's was in many technical ways "similar" to the current AIDS virus...and thus, some kind of deep historical "herd immunity" survives even to this day in persons of European decent...
So too...the world could be less likely to experience a catastrophic lose of life if some of us still have the "survivor gene" from the 1918 pandemic...
Perhaps something like this will save us? Or perhaps not.
Just a little ray of hope in what is increasingly nothing by GLOOM AND DOOM about the Bird Flu... And remember stranger things have happen...
We, you and I, are ALL decended from survivors of the last Bird Flu Pandemic in 1918...could we not have a certain genetic propensity to survive this outbread as well?
It is thought that the reason that Africans are more prone to AIDS than Europeans is that the BLACK DEATH of the 1300's was in many technical ways "similar" to the current AIDS virus...and thus, some kind of deep historical "herd immunity" survives even to this day in persons of European decent...
So too...the world could be less likely to experience a catastrophic lose of life if some of us still have the "survivor gene" from the 1918 pandemic...
Perhaps something like this will save us? Or perhaps not.
Just a little ray of hope in what is increasingly nothing by GLOOM AND DOOM about the Bird Flu... And remember stranger things have happen...
MARKETS WANT YEAR END RALLY....BUT...
Clearly the Street would love a year end rally...
...to show that stocks are still "the place to be" and that the 401ks are not just a sham to allow the multinationals to scoot out from under their pension plans...
But alas, there is a problem...REALITY!
The realities of 2006 are that it will be a year of disasterous consequences...even if you don't believe the BIBLE CODE that the end of days will occur in 2006!
Interest rates are rising...and they ain't gonna stop rising until the 10 year bond hits 7%...now we can do that the slow way or the fast way.
And naturally, the Euro never misses an opportunity to "plunge" against the dollar...now it's the riots in France which may spread to other nations in the Euro Zone.
But still, the US Kongress keeps spending money like mad...and it has a quagmire war to finance...even as the Boomers are looking toward retirement...and the rich want their promised tax cuts.
My hunch is that rates in the US go up for all of next year...and the dollar thus stays "strong" against the Euro...but NOT against commodities like oil, gas and gold!
Basically, higher rates may save the dollar vis-a-vis OTHER PAPER ASSETS, but it won't help the dollar against commodities which can't be "made" on a printing press!
INDEED, 2006 COULD THE YEAR WHERE THERE IS A MARKET WIDE REACTION AGAINST ALL PAPER ASSETS...CURRENCIES, BONDS, AND STOCKS...EVEN WHILE COMMODITY PRICES CONTINUE TO SOAR...AND INFLATION OF RAW MATERIALS WASHES PRICE INFLATION INTO THE REAL ECONOMY...
SO GOLD AND OIL WILL BE THE CANARIES IN THE MINESHAFT NEXT YEAR...IF THEY CONTINUE TO STAY STRONG EVEN AS RATES RISE...THE END OF THE FED INTEREST RATE HIKES WILL BE NO WHERE IN SIGHT!
P.S. I THINK THEY USED TO CALL THIS PHENOMENON: "STAGFLATION."
...to show that stocks are still "the place to be" and that the 401ks are not just a sham to allow the multinationals to scoot out from under their pension plans...
But alas, there is a problem...REALITY!
The realities of 2006 are that it will be a year of disasterous consequences...even if you don't believe the BIBLE CODE that the end of days will occur in 2006!
Interest rates are rising...and they ain't gonna stop rising until the 10 year bond hits 7%...now we can do that the slow way or the fast way.
And naturally, the Euro never misses an opportunity to "plunge" against the dollar...now it's the riots in France which may spread to other nations in the Euro Zone.
But still, the US Kongress keeps spending money like mad...and it has a quagmire war to finance...even as the Boomers are looking toward retirement...and the rich want their promised tax cuts.
My hunch is that rates in the US go up for all of next year...and the dollar thus stays "strong" against the Euro...but NOT against commodities like oil, gas and gold!
Basically, higher rates may save the dollar vis-a-vis OTHER PAPER ASSETS, but it won't help the dollar against commodities which can't be "made" on a printing press!
INDEED, 2006 COULD THE YEAR WHERE THERE IS A MARKET WIDE REACTION AGAINST ALL PAPER ASSETS...CURRENCIES, BONDS, AND STOCKS...EVEN WHILE COMMODITY PRICES CONTINUE TO SOAR...AND INFLATION OF RAW MATERIALS WASHES PRICE INFLATION INTO THE REAL ECONOMY...
SO GOLD AND OIL WILL BE THE CANARIES IN THE MINESHAFT NEXT YEAR...IF THEY CONTINUE TO STAY STRONG EVEN AS RATES RISE...THE END OF THE FED INTEREST RATE HIKES WILL BE NO WHERE IN SIGHT!
P.S. I THINK THEY USED TO CALL THIS PHENOMENON: "STAGFLATION."
Monday, November 7, 2005
BUSH BASHERS FOR BUSH....?
Red State and Rural Bubba Republicans are sort of like alcholics...
...they've got to "hit bottom" before you can even BEGIN to help them.
So when the liberals and progressives "lecture" these Bubba Republicans about "their economic interests" and the perils of Free Trade...their eyes glaze over. Most of them are so enraptured by talk of guns and Jesus and how the homos are taking over that they can't really think straight about whats really happen.
That could be changing. But it is important that these BUBBA REPUBLICANS be allowed to discover this on their own... They simply have to hit bottom before the Progressives can even talk to them.
Bubba Repubicans need to see that they are lacking in the two most important "family values"...namely, respect for knowledge and learning, and tolerance of others.
These moves away from science toward "creationism" and "intelligent design" are simply nonsense.
And the intolerance preached in evangelical churchs is frightening...the Gay Bashing and this total nonsense that the Jews have a "Bibical Claim" on the West Bank...and that the Jews will "convert to Christianity" as soon as they "rebuilt their Temple" at the Dome of the Rock is simply dangerous drivel of the worst sort. And it is ashame that many Israeli politicans are leading these Evangelicals on with this bogus "conversion story."
So let the Bubbas keep sending their "jar heads" to die in the Middle East... Let the Free Traders loot jobs from the Red State economies... Let the Kongress keep passing "anti-middle class" laws; like the recent Bankruptcy "reforms," and the damaging tax cuts for the rich.
ONLY WHEN THE RED STATE BUBBAS "HIT BOTTOM" WILL THEY BE READY FOR THE PROGRESSIVE AGENDA... WE NEED MORE BUSH FOR BUBBA...NOT LESS NOW. MORE BUSH BASHERS FOR BUSH!
...they've got to "hit bottom" before you can even BEGIN to help them.
So when the liberals and progressives "lecture" these Bubba Republicans about "their economic interests" and the perils of Free Trade...their eyes glaze over. Most of them are so enraptured by talk of guns and Jesus and how the homos are taking over that they can't really think straight about whats really happen.
That could be changing. But it is important that these BUBBA REPUBLICANS be allowed to discover this on their own... They simply have to hit bottom before the Progressives can even talk to them.
Bubba Repubicans need to see that they are lacking in the two most important "family values"...namely, respect for knowledge and learning, and tolerance of others.
These moves away from science toward "creationism" and "intelligent design" are simply nonsense.
And the intolerance preached in evangelical churchs is frightening...the Gay Bashing and this total nonsense that the Jews have a "Bibical Claim" on the West Bank...and that the Jews will "convert to Christianity" as soon as they "rebuilt their Temple" at the Dome of the Rock is simply dangerous drivel of the worst sort. And it is ashame that many Israeli politicans are leading these Evangelicals on with this bogus "conversion story."
So let the Bubbas keep sending their "jar heads" to die in the Middle East... Let the Free Traders loot jobs from the Red State economies... Let the Kongress keep passing "anti-middle class" laws; like the recent Bankruptcy "reforms," and the damaging tax cuts for the rich.
ONLY WHEN THE RED STATE BUBBAS "HIT BOTTOM" WILL THEY BE READY FOR THE PROGRESSIVE AGENDA... WE NEED MORE BUSH FOR BUBBA...NOT LESS NOW. MORE BUSH BASHERS FOR BUSH!
THE COMING AGE OF RIOTS...
The recent French Riots can be seen in a number of ways...
But none of the "usual explanations" will suffice. They never do when it comes to riots and social disorder...because the elites are always eagar to explain away the troubles as "just a bunch of dead-enders" and malcontents.
But alas, gentle reader, we are perhaps entering a NEW AGE OF RIOTING AND SOCIAL UNREST.
And that the real and primary cause was the FALL OF COMMUNISM and the TRIUMPH OF CAPITALISM after 1989.
During the Cold War International Capital had an incentive to keep the lower classes happy and off the streets...after all, the SPECTRE OF MARXISM was afoot and that was a threat to the established order of things.
After 1989 that threat was no longer seen as important...ENTER THE AGE OF FREE TRADE. GLOBALISM. AND THE ABILITY OF CAPITAL TO WORK WITHOUT THE NEED TO RECOGNIZE NATIONAL BOUNDRIES.
THAT, GENTLE READER, IS ENDING NOW...
The REACTION against Free Trade and Globalism and International Capital, (represented by Jews to many Muslim people) is just getting started.
And it is A PERFECT STORM situation...with Euroland filled with disenfranchised increasingly radical Muslims...and the US with a growing underclass and a winner-takes-all economy... The recent Riots in Toledo, Ohio were likely just the start of unrest that will manifest itself in other areas as things continue to deterioate for working class and underclass people in the US... Need proof: Look at Dubya "approval ratings" lately!
Future Historians will likely see the coming AGE OF RIOTS as multifaceted... Partly caused by the redicalization of Islam caused by the Iraq War... And Partly caused by Globalism and the Triumph of Capital caused by the collpse of the Soviet System in 1989... Amazingly, the Fall of Saddam and the Fall of the USSR could be seen as MAJOR destabilizing events...that precipitated the unrest we are now finally starting to see... ALAS, THE AGE OF RIOTS COULD BE UPON US.
And what is to be done about this...? Any suggestions? Stay tuned...
But none of the "usual explanations" will suffice. They never do when it comes to riots and social disorder...because the elites are always eagar to explain away the troubles as "just a bunch of dead-enders" and malcontents.
But alas, gentle reader, we are perhaps entering a NEW AGE OF RIOTING AND SOCIAL UNREST.
And that the real and primary cause was the FALL OF COMMUNISM and the TRIUMPH OF CAPITALISM after 1989.
During the Cold War International Capital had an incentive to keep the lower classes happy and off the streets...after all, the SPECTRE OF MARXISM was afoot and that was a threat to the established order of things.
After 1989 that threat was no longer seen as important...ENTER THE AGE OF FREE TRADE. GLOBALISM. AND THE ABILITY OF CAPITAL TO WORK WITHOUT THE NEED TO RECOGNIZE NATIONAL BOUNDRIES.
THAT, GENTLE READER, IS ENDING NOW...
The REACTION against Free Trade and Globalism and International Capital, (represented by Jews to many Muslim people) is just getting started.
And it is A PERFECT STORM situation...with Euroland filled with disenfranchised increasingly radical Muslims...and the US with a growing underclass and a winner-takes-all economy... The recent Riots in Toledo, Ohio were likely just the start of unrest that will manifest itself in other areas as things continue to deterioate for working class and underclass people in the US... Need proof: Look at Dubya "approval ratings" lately!
Future Historians will likely see the coming AGE OF RIOTS as multifaceted... Partly caused by the redicalization of Islam caused by the Iraq War... And Partly caused by Globalism and the Triumph of Capital caused by the collpse of the Soviet System in 1989... Amazingly, the Fall of Saddam and the Fall of the USSR could be seen as MAJOR destabilizing events...that precipitated the unrest we are now finally starting to see... ALAS, THE AGE OF RIOTS COULD BE UPON US.
And what is to be done about this...? Any suggestions? Stay tuned...
Saturday, November 5, 2005
FREE TRADE SUMMIT FLOPS...BUSH TO BLAME?
Can anything be done as long as Dubya is so disliked by the rest of the world...?
I think not... It's almost as if whatever Bush is for...the world community is against. As "damaged goods" the White House will likely not be able to accomplish anything for the next three years... And that is a real shame, because it will take a long long time to "dig out" of the hole the Bush Years will have put us in.
And just in time for the crisis of Boomer Retirements!
I think not... It's almost as if whatever Bush is for...the world community is against. As "damaged goods" the White House will likely not be able to accomplish anything for the next three years... And that is a real shame, because it will take a long long time to "dig out" of the hole the Bush Years will have put us in.
And just in time for the crisis of Boomer Retirements!
WELCOME GLOOM AND DOOM NEWBIES
Welcome to all newbie viewers of this blog...what took you so long?
Gloom and Doom has been around for ages, OK since 1999.
...we started out in Yahoo Clubs as just another daytrading site; except for "Bears, Shorts and Market Cassandras..." Indeed the "short selling" catagory was started just for Gloom and Doom when Yahoo decided to divide up the daytrading section into smaller sub-catagories.
Then came Yahoo Groups...and the "Clubs" were discontinued.
Gloom and Doom was in Yahoo Groups for a few years...where I decided to make this board more of a blog (blogs were just becoming popular then)...and less of a "public board" --because the touts and the spammers will simply kill you if you don't moderate them constantly.
Finally, this "blog" was moved to Blogger...as the GLOOM AND DOOM REPORT. Quite simply because the formating options and other features at Blogger were more attractive...
Gloom and Doom has become more political over the years, and not exclusively about the markets, but this blog still tries be very "macro" oriented...and NOT to have an agenda.
With all of the touts and apologists for the "happy" side of things...perhaps the 'Net can support one or two contrarian sites...
So, the motto of this board might be: "Yes, but..."
Bookmark this blog today...and come back daily for what might be a different point of view on key issues of the day...
Or, better yet why not simply make GLOOM AND DOOM your homepage and take the guess work out of it? Ya think?
P.S. This blog is created at 600x800 screen resolution. And remember the "side bar" is open 24.7.365 and all of the "images" are actually links to web sites you may find interesting and important. For example, the "gold coin" is actually a link to the FED!
Gloom and Doom has been around for ages, OK since 1999.
...we started out in Yahoo Clubs as just another daytrading site; except for "Bears, Shorts and Market Cassandras..." Indeed the "short selling" catagory was started just for Gloom and Doom when Yahoo decided to divide up the daytrading section into smaller sub-catagories.
Then came Yahoo Groups...and the "Clubs" were discontinued.
Gloom and Doom was in Yahoo Groups for a few years...where I decided to make this board more of a blog (blogs were just becoming popular then)...and less of a "public board" --because the touts and the spammers will simply kill you if you don't moderate them constantly.
Finally, this "blog" was moved to Blogger...as the GLOOM AND DOOM REPORT. Quite simply because the formating options and other features at Blogger were more attractive...
Gloom and Doom has become more political over the years, and not exclusively about the markets, but this blog still tries be very "macro" oriented...and NOT to have an agenda.
With all of the touts and apologists for the "happy" side of things...perhaps the 'Net can support one or two contrarian sites...
So, the motto of this board might be: "Yes, but..."
Bookmark this blog today...and come back daily for what might be a different point of view on key issues of the day...
Or, better yet why not simply make GLOOM AND DOOM your homepage and take the guess work out of it? Ya think?
P.S. This blog is created at 600x800 screen resolution. And remember the "side bar" is open 24.7.365 and all of the "images" are actually links to web sites you may find interesting and important. For example, the "gold coin" is actually a link to the FED!
BROOKS AND FRIEDMAN UNREADABLE...
Fortunately, the NYTimes has barred free on-line access to their op-ed columnists...And not a minute too soon as both Brooks and Friedman have been nearly "unreadable" lately! Friedman is the cheif apologist for China and India inside the US... And Brooks seems to think he has the gift of humor lately...alas for his readers, he doesn't.
ALITO: STOOGE FOR WALL STREET?
The NYTimes title link reveals that Sam Alito may be a bigger threat to workers rights than to abortion rights...
I have suggested here that it's ECONOMICS, STUPID. And not abortions that are put at risk by the Bush Supreme Court.
Bubba may have voted for Bush to stop the gays and feminists from taking over...and to stop Al Gore from taking Bubba's gun away.
But it's becoming clear now that while Bubba may still have his gun...his pension has gone missing, and his job is in China and his health care coverage is pay-as-you-go!
And alas, with all these economic problems Bubba's wife might just move back with her mother...then Bubba won't have to worry about abortion rights anymore. All the Bubba Republicans may have left at the end of Dubya II is their guns....
I have suggested here that it's ECONOMICS, STUPID. And not abortions that are put at risk by the Bush Supreme Court.
Bubba may have voted for Bush to stop the gays and feminists from taking over...and to stop Al Gore from taking Bubba's gun away.
But it's becoming clear now that while Bubba may still have his gun...his pension has gone missing, and his job is in China and his health care coverage is pay-as-you-go!
And alas, with all these economic problems Bubba's wife might just move back with her mother...then Bubba won't have to worry about abortion rights anymore. All the Bubba Republicans may have left at the end of Dubya II is their guns....
THE GOOGLE ON-LINE LIBRARY IS HERE
ENJOY
Quite an interesting site really...perhaps some day...all books will be on-line and the bookstores will be out of business?
Quite an interesting site really...perhaps some day...all books will be on-line and the bookstores will be out of business?
WHAT I KNEW AND WHEN I KNEW IT...and maybe you too.
The Kongress is tying itself in knots about the Dubya's BIG LIE concerning Saddam's WMD.
But, let's review a bit...
Everyone knew that Dubya was going to "undo" Poppy Bush's two big "mistakes" when he was elected president in 2000.
Dubya's mission, as he choose to accept it, was to roll back Poppy's big tax mistake,(Read my lips no new taxes).
And to correct Poppy's second mistake, about not pursuing Saddam all the way to Baghdad after the first Gulf War...
The Democrats also "knew" a few things... First they were burned baddly by opposing Poppy's War to expell Saddam from Kuwait, which was the real "cake walk"...unlike the current Iraq War. And Democrats vowed never to make that kind of mistake again. Hence their supposed "approval" of the second and more disasterous adventure into Iraq.
Now most of us, at least I, "knew" that when Trixy-Blixy, the UN weapons inspector who could talk out of both sides of is mouth at the same time, wasn't "finding" weapons and weapons labs straighaway,...something wasn't right.
After all, we had pictures of these labs from spy planes...and undeniable testimony from reliable sources like "curve-ball" and the Shia exiles groups and Mr. Chalabi, et al.
So, why wasn't Trixy-Blixy finding anything? Despite those televised high speed car chases to various undisclosed locations in and around Baghdad and the rest of Iraq?
Ah...said the Neocons...Saddam has his Bio-labs on semi-trucks that are constanting moving around the country.
Bio-weapons labs on trucks...? Well whatever...Dubya was buying whatever the Neocons and the American Lukudnics were selling at that time...because there were still Poppy's "mistakes" to be corrected by any means necessary.
So frankly, I just assumed, after a while, that everyone knew that the Iraq War "causus belli" was being fabricated from whole cloth...but that it was one of those things we "weren't supposed to talk about" openly, like the fact that Dubya has serious cognitive deficiencies...!
In short, I knew that the entire episode was a fraud...with Colin's Oscar winning performance at the UN the final act in this theater of the absurd.
Didn't everyone see this? ...I just assumed the entire affair was being "ginned up" to provide an excuse to correct Poppy's mistake. Now, suddenly the Democrats want "the facts" and the real reasons for the war in the first place...no wonder they are looking like fools! The Democratic fools followed the Fool-in-Chief into this unwinnable war willingly and now they are looking for a way out.
That's what I knew all along, and when I knew it...and maybe you too!
But, let's review a bit...
Everyone knew that Dubya was going to "undo" Poppy Bush's two big "mistakes" when he was elected president in 2000.
Dubya's mission, as he choose to accept it, was to roll back Poppy's big tax mistake,(Read my lips no new taxes).
And to correct Poppy's second mistake, about not pursuing Saddam all the way to Baghdad after the first Gulf War...
The Democrats also "knew" a few things... First they were burned baddly by opposing Poppy's War to expell Saddam from Kuwait, which was the real "cake walk"...unlike the current Iraq War. And Democrats vowed never to make that kind of mistake again. Hence their supposed "approval" of the second and more disasterous adventure into Iraq.
Now most of us, at least I, "knew" that when Trixy-Blixy, the UN weapons inspector who could talk out of both sides of is mouth at the same time, wasn't "finding" weapons and weapons labs straighaway,...something wasn't right.
After all, we had pictures of these labs from spy planes...and undeniable testimony from reliable sources like "curve-ball" and the Shia exiles groups and Mr. Chalabi, et al.
So, why wasn't Trixy-Blixy finding anything? Despite those televised high speed car chases to various undisclosed locations in and around Baghdad and the rest of Iraq?
Ah...said the Neocons...Saddam has his Bio-labs on semi-trucks that are constanting moving around the country.
Bio-weapons labs on trucks...? Well whatever...Dubya was buying whatever the Neocons and the American Lukudnics were selling at that time...because there were still Poppy's "mistakes" to be corrected by any means necessary.
So frankly, I just assumed, after a while, that everyone knew that the Iraq War "causus belli" was being fabricated from whole cloth...but that it was one of those things we "weren't supposed to talk about" openly, like the fact that Dubya has serious cognitive deficiencies...!
In short, I knew that the entire episode was a fraud...with Colin's Oscar winning performance at the UN the final act in this theater of the absurd.
Didn't everyone see this? ...I just assumed the entire affair was being "ginned up" to provide an excuse to correct Poppy's mistake. Now, suddenly the Democrats want "the facts" and the real reasons for the war in the first place...no wonder they are looking like fools! The Democratic fools followed the Fool-in-Chief into this unwinnable war willingly and now they are looking for a way out.
That's what I knew all along, and when I knew it...and maybe you too!
Friday, November 4, 2005
LOVE THE DOLLAR...HATE THE BOND...?
Everyone is gathering dollars while they may...even as the bond sinks to new lows.
Clearly many are looking forward to the new higher yields after 2006 as the Fed continues to raise rates to cover up for the dismal macroeconomic state of the US economy...I know I am.
I have a bad feeling about the American Consumer, everyone you see is still slapping the plastic down to pay for things; no one pays cash anymore.
With Dubya's approval numbers in the mid/high 30's THAT could be a proxy for some deep seated feelings of discomfort among the denizens of Main Street.
Will Wall Street ever catch on? Eventually. But, how long will the market masters be permitted to build their castles in the sky... Google at $400...Oh please, that's as bad as it gets.
As long as our Chinese "enablers" continue to be supportive...fine. But someday...soon that support is going to start melting away...then the deluge.
Clearly many are looking forward to the new higher yields after 2006 as the Fed continues to raise rates to cover up for the dismal macroeconomic state of the US economy...I know I am.
I have a bad feeling about the American Consumer, everyone you see is still slapping the plastic down to pay for things; no one pays cash anymore.
With Dubya's approval numbers in the mid/high 30's THAT could be a proxy for some deep seated feelings of discomfort among the denizens of Main Street.
Will Wall Street ever catch on? Eventually. But, how long will the market masters be permitted to build their castles in the sky... Google at $400...Oh please, that's as bad as it gets.
As long as our Chinese "enablers" continue to be supportive...fine. But someday...soon that support is going to start melting away...then the deluge.
DELPHI STRIKE COULD TANK STOCKS BIG TIME
Exactly how Delphi avoids a strike is beyond me at this point.
There is a school of thought that says its all a big bluff...and that the UAW will "settle for" $12-$15 per hour. But the language coming out of the Delphi CEO is so "in your face" that it doesn't appear he's planning on having to deal with "these people" EVER again!
What's bad for GM, may even yet be bad for the US economy!
There is a school of thought that says its all a big bluff...and that the UAW will "settle for" $12-$15 per hour. But the language coming out of the Delphi CEO is so "in your face" that it doesn't appear he's planning on having to deal with "these people" EVER again!
What's bad for GM, may even yet be bad for the US economy!
FIVE PERCENT BOND WILL KILL STOCKS...?
If a 5% ten year bond happens, the days of the retail stock investor may be over.
And we are getting very close now...with eventual 5%++ yeilds on Bank CDs almost inevitable...
Greenspan is leaving Bernanke a huge mess...practically every macro number is bad, or disasterous... Fortunately, so far, the market only trades on micro numbers, creative accounting and Tout TV hype... So far...
And we are getting very close now...with eventual 5%++ yeilds on Bank CDs almost inevitable...
Greenspan is leaving Bernanke a huge mess...practically every macro number is bad, or disasterous... Fortunately, so far, the market only trades on micro numbers, creative accounting and Tout TV hype... So far...
NEO-MALTHUSIANS, or can we afford China?
I have always thought that Malthus and Marx suffered from "bad press" in the economic community.
Both Malthus and Marx were serious economists, and their works are still worth reading.
The problem was that Malthus and Marx both saw the world as "flat"...and thus prone to straight line collapses.
Whereas, Smith and Ricardo saw the world as more prone to equilibrium...sort of more "lumpy" perhaps, or cyclical...with numerous stopping points and "invisible hands" along the way.
But now, the rise of China could validate the old Malthusian notion that there are limits to growth that even new technology can't prevent...
Land and agricultural production, which was the doomsday limit to Malthus,...could be revived as oil and gas production today.
There does seem to be strict limits on how much oil and gas the world can produce...at least at this time.
So, as the Chinese "middle class" grows...to the delight of people like Tom Friedman of the NYTimes...barriers are hit. Things go haywire.
And bad things start to happen. If more and more Chinese buy cars...we may all may be "priced out of the market" for gasoline! Growth then becomes self limiting...or Malthusian in its nature.
In short, there is a competition for resources that drives the price up so high that fewer and fewer people can afford it...
What Tom Friedman and his type should be asking is: CAN WE AFFORD A CHINESE MIDDLE CLASS under current conditions...
And if not, are we not approaching a NEO-MALTHUSIAN CRISIS that is as yet unnoticed by the markets?
Was Multhus right, but just two hundred years early in his predictions of doom?
Both Malthus and Marx were serious economists, and their works are still worth reading.
The problem was that Malthus and Marx both saw the world as "flat"...and thus prone to straight line collapses.
Whereas, Smith and Ricardo saw the world as more prone to equilibrium...sort of more "lumpy" perhaps, or cyclical...with numerous stopping points and "invisible hands" along the way.
But now, the rise of China could validate the old Malthusian notion that there are limits to growth that even new technology can't prevent...
Land and agricultural production, which was the doomsday limit to Malthus,...could be revived as oil and gas production today.
There does seem to be strict limits on how much oil and gas the world can produce...at least at this time.
So, as the Chinese "middle class" grows...to the delight of people like Tom Friedman of the NYTimes...barriers are hit. Things go haywire.
And bad things start to happen. If more and more Chinese buy cars...we may all may be "priced out of the market" for gasoline! Growth then becomes self limiting...or Malthusian in its nature.
In short, there is a competition for resources that drives the price up so high that fewer and fewer people can afford it...
What Tom Friedman and his type should be asking is: CAN WE AFFORD A CHINESE MIDDLE CLASS under current conditions...
And if not, are we not approaching a NEO-MALTHUSIAN CRISIS that is as yet unnoticed by the markets?
Was Multhus right, but just two hundred years early in his predictions of doom?
FREE TRADE HATED BY EVERYONE...
Except International Capital...but International Capital runs the Multinationals and the Governments of the world...
Yet does this constant protesting of Free Trade and globalism doom these notions longer term...? Perhaps.
Something there is that does not like Free Trade and globalism...something always stops it.
In the old days, wars stopped globalization...war is the "ultimate tariff."
Now, during our current Pax Americana,...what will stop it? Perhaps this predicted Bird Flu pandemic? If so that would put the current situation more in line with the Black Death that was carried back to Europe by the Crusaders in the 1300's.
Yet does this constant protesting of Free Trade and globalism doom these notions longer term...? Perhaps.
Something there is that does not like Free Trade and globalism...something always stops it.
In the old days, wars stopped globalization...war is the "ultimate tariff."
Now, during our current Pax Americana,...what will stop it? Perhaps this predicted Bird Flu pandemic? If so that would put the current situation more in line with the Black Death that was carried back to Europe by the Crusaders in the 1300's.
ECONOMY IS DECAYING FROM THE BOTTOM UP
Fewer people being hired means that those still on the payroll are working harder and longer to pick up the slack...hence higher wages, fewer jobs...
DISMAL JOBS REPORT...
Read it and weep:
Construction......... 7,217 p7,260 7,267 p7,279 p7,312 ---p33
Manufacturing........ 14,292 p14,254 14,260 p14,232 p14,244 ---p12
Retail trade(2)...... 15,180 p15,218 15,231 p15,173 p15,167--- p-5
Professional and
business services.. 16,867 p16,997 16,983 p17,044 p17,056--- p12
Education and health
services........... 17,289 p17,415 17,418 p17,451 p17,462--- p11
Leisure and
hospitality........ 12,741 p12,799 12,830 p12,767 p12,749--- p-18
Government........... 21,753 p21,841 21,849 p21,857 p21,867--- p10
Basically, restaurants and bars collapsed while retailing is strangely punk...
But Construction was still strong, while health care, temps and government treaded water.
But oddly enough we now live in an economy where dismal seems OK!
Construction......... 7,217 p7,260 7,267 p7,279 p7,312 ---p33
Manufacturing........ 14,292 p14,254 14,260 p14,232 p14,244 ---p12
Retail trade(2)...... 15,180 p15,218 15,231 p15,173 p15,167--- p-5
Professional and
business services.. 16,867 p16,997 16,983 p17,044 p17,056--- p12
Education and health
services........... 17,289 p17,415 17,418 p17,451 p17,462--- p11
Leisure and
hospitality........ 12,741 p12,799 12,830 p12,767 p12,749--- p-18
Government........... 21,753 p21,841 21,849 p21,857 p21,867--- p10
Basically, restaurants and bars collapsed while retailing is strangely punk...
But Construction was still strong, while health care, temps and government treaded water.
But oddly enough we now live in an economy where dismal seems OK!
Thursday, November 3, 2005
GREENSPAN SEES HEALTH CARE DOOMSDAY!
Says Greenspan:
So long as health-care costs continue to grow faster than the economy as a whole, as seems likely, federal spending on health and retirement programs would rise at a rate that risks placing the budget on an unsustainable trajectory. Specifically, large deficits will result in rising interest rates and an ever-growing ratio of debt service to GDP. Unless the situation is reversed, at some point these budget trends will cause serious economic disruptions.
But who will challenge the health care lobby and big Pharma...? No one in the Kongress now.
So long as health-care costs continue to grow faster than the economy as a whole, as seems likely, federal spending on health and retirement programs would rise at a rate that risks placing the budget on an unsustainable trajectory. Specifically, large deficits will result in rising interest rates and an ever-growing ratio of debt service to GDP. Unless the situation is reversed, at some point these budget trends will cause serious economic disruptions.
But who will challenge the health care lobby and big Pharma...? No one in the Kongress now.
MARKETS DESPERATE FOR YEAR END RALLY
The market masters desperately don't want another "down year" for Wall Street...
That could undermine the notion that we are all going to retire on our 401k "winnings"
And, that the stock market is the best of all possible places to invest your money...
Anyway, look for more "good news" to be reported by the government. And look for any bad news to be filtered out and marginalized ASAP in the coming weeks.
This market needs and wants a "happy face" to support it's year end rally...and it's going to get it.
The only potential trouble is that bonds will cease to be an "conundrum" in 2006...and rates will rise; but as I've suggested here below, many CD holders will be able to spend their increased yeilds at the stores...so higher rates might have a silver lining for Wall Street and Main Street...in the form of increased spending by savers...not borrowers!
And won't that be a change of pace!
Still higher rates for bonds longer term will provide an ALTERNATIVE to stocks...and that could tempt mom and pop to put more money in the banks' CDs...than in the speculative equity markets.
That could undermine the notion that we are all going to retire on our 401k "winnings"
And, that the stock market is the best of all possible places to invest your money...
Anyway, look for more "good news" to be reported by the government. And look for any bad news to be filtered out and marginalized ASAP in the coming weeks.
This market needs and wants a "happy face" to support it's year end rally...and it's going to get it.
The only potential trouble is that bonds will cease to be an "conundrum" in 2006...and rates will rise; but as I've suggested here below, many CD holders will be able to spend their increased yeilds at the stores...so higher rates might have a silver lining for Wall Street and Main Street...in the form of increased spending by savers...not borrowers!
And won't that be a change of pace!
Still higher rates for bonds longer term will provide an ALTERNATIVE to stocks...and that could tempt mom and pop to put more money in the banks' CDs...than in the speculative equity markets.
THE WALTON'S MOUNTAIN EFFECT...
All economic news is good news nowadays...unless you hold bonds which are down again.
Perhaps, all of that SHOPPING last month was being done by people who were getting more interest on their CDs! ...Ya think?
The Bubble Mindset has been so engrained in the US markets that it's almost impossible for "a number" to be "bad" these days...all "those numbers" were jiggered out years ago!
And, if all else fails, there is always "creative accouting," which is really ALL accounting these daze...
The reported productivity number was just another way of saying: A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE LAID OFF...AND AMAZINGLY, THEY ARE NOT LOOKING FOR WORK THAT DOESN'T EXIST...BUT RATHER JUST MOVED BACK IN WITH MOM AND AUNT MARTHA!
MY HUNCH IS THAT A LOT MORE PEOPLE ARE "DROPPING OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE" THAN ARE REPORTED BY THE GOVERNMENT...HENCE THE ALWAYS "GOOD" UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES...
After all, if you aren't looking for non-existant "real jobs" you're NOT technically unemployed! Alas, you ain't even a statistic anymore...
This "miracle" of employment without real jobs...is collaterally reflected in the vacancy rates for apartments and residential rentals across the US, which are at record high vacantcies... Because if you can't find a job, and you move back in with mom...and give up your apartment--you "don' exist" in these government numbers.
IF YOU'RE BACK WITH MOM AND DAD...THEN, GENTLE READER, YOU ARE VERY CENTRAL TO OUR CURRENT AMERICAN "ECONOMIC MIRACLE!"
Namely: Low unemployment without significant job growth. Spending without wage enhancements. And finally, productivity without real growth.
I call this phenomenon the: "Walton's Mountain Effect" after the 1970's TV series where three generations of one family all lived in one shack in the hills back in the 1930's... Remember?
Perhaps, all of that SHOPPING last month was being done by people who were getting more interest on their CDs! ...Ya think?
The Bubble Mindset has been so engrained in the US markets that it's almost impossible for "a number" to be "bad" these days...all "those numbers" were jiggered out years ago!
And, if all else fails, there is always "creative accouting," which is really ALL accounting these daze...
The reported productivity number was just another way of saying: A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE LAID OFF...AND AMAZINGLY, THEY ARE NOT LOOKING FOR WORK THAT DOESN'T EXIST...BUT RATHER JUST MOVED BACK IN WITH MOM AND AUNT MARTHA!
MY HUNCH IS THAT A LOT MORE PEOPLE ARE "DROPPING OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE" THAN ARE REPORTED BY THE GOVERNMENT...HENCE THE ALWAYS "GOOD" UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES...
After all, if you aren't looking for non-existant "real jobs" you're NOT technically unemployed! Alas, you ain't even a statistic anymore...
This "miracle" of employment without real jobs...is collaterally reflected in the vacancy rates for apartments and residential rentals across the US, which are at record high vacantcies... Because if you can't find a job, and you move back in with mom...and give up your apartment--you "don' exist" in these government numbers.
IF YOU'RE BACK WITH MOM AND DAD...THEN, GENTLE READER, YOU ARE VERY CENTRAL TO OUR CURRENT AMERICAN "ECONOMIC MIRACLE!"
Namely: Low unemployment without significant job growth. Spending without wage enhancements. And finally, productivity without real growth.
I call this phenomenon the: "Walton's Mountain Effect" after the 1970's TV series where three generations of one family all lived in one shack in the hills back in the 1930's... Remember?
Wednesday, November 2, 2005
IS THE FIX IN ON JOBS REPORT....?
This notion that the US economy is "creating" jobs is pretty amazing...
But the fix seems to be in on the October Jobs number... The happy warriors on the Street seem Hell Bent to see only the sunny side of this dismal economy. And as long as the numbers can be jiggered to fit the "agenda" the show can go on.
With retailing punk and governments at all levels going broke...the idea of new hiring in these areas is questionable. And of course manufacturing is ALWAYS down now! This is a very very "managed news" environment...but at some point the "real news" will have to take over the headlines. Just see the Detroit News and the Detroit Free Press for Gloom and Doom straight with no chaser!
But the fix seems to be in on the October Jobs number... The happy warriors on the Street seem Hell Bent to see only the sunny side of this dismal economy. And as long as the numbers can be jiggered to fit the "agenda" the show can go on.
With retailing punk and governments at all levels going broke...the idea of new hiring in these areas is questionable. And of course manufacturing is ALWAYS down now! This is a very very "managed news" environment...but at some point the "real news" will have to take over the headlines. Just see the Detroit News and the Detroit Free Press for Gloom and Doom straight with no chaser!
ALITO LIKELY TO BE APPROVED...
Sam Alito, unlike the other conservatives on the Supreme Court, seems capable of "evolving" --once he 's on the bench...
Alito does not seem to have a closed mind, an agenda, or political philosophy that is overriding all else...
He is said to be "smart," and that CLEARLY seperates him from most other conservatives... And, it is unlikely that he will try to turn the clock back to the 1950s, as most Southern Bubba and Religious Conservatives seek to do...
So, if the Red State South thinks that they are going to be able to go back to Jim Crow...with their new "conservative court"...they could be saddly mistaken.
As long as Bush is forced to "go with brains," and stay away from the party hacks and ideologues... Blue State Progressive should have nothing, too much, to worry about... Roe is probably "safe," even if some of the more "creative" restictions are put into law on a state by state basis.
Still, I would prefer to see Democrats, and other progressives, working the economic issues with the Bubba Red State Republicans...and NOT constatnly playing in the Evangelical "SandBox" on these "social issues."
Alito does not seem to have a closed mind, an agenda, or political philosophy that is overriding all else...
He is said to be "smart," and that CLEARLY seperates him from most other conservatives... And, it is unlikely that he will try to turn the clock back to the 1950s, as most Southern Bubba and Religious Conservatives seek to do...
So, if the Red State South thinks that they are going to be able to go back to Jim Crow...with their new "conservative court"...they could be saddly mistaken.
As long as Bush is forced to "go with brains," and stay away from the party hacks and ideologues... Blue State Progressive should have nothing, too much, to worry about... Roe is probably "safe," even if some of the more "creative" restictions are put into law on a state by state basis.
Still, I would prefer to see Democrats, and other progressives, working the economic issues with the Bubba Red State Republicans...and NOT constatnly playing in the Evangelical "SandBox" on these "social issues."
THE WOMEN OF WALMART...
The Times reports that Walmart now has a "war room" to respond to attacks on it's corporate policies... And Walmart has admitted as much.
Yesterday, on NPR one Walmart "apologist" noted that Walmart hires women who would otherwise be unemployed; or on what's left of the old Welfare system... Furthermore, this person said most of these Walmart women could not find work ANYWERE ELSE but Walmart...as many are unsuitable for even other low cost retailers, like Target...
This leaves the impression that the Women of Walmart are a bunch of dish-water blond losers who are abused by their male partners and are basically desperate for anything they can get...
Of course, the Women of Walmart could strike back at this dismal image;
And perhaps do a WOMEN OF WALMART CALENDER for 2006--wherein they are wearing nothing but their corporate "slave liveries" that say: "How may I help you?"
That might get some notice for the plight of women at Walmart in the "war room"...and with the public at large...?
Yesterday, on NPR one Walmart "apologist" noted that Walmart hires women who would otherwise be unemployed; or on what's left of the old Welfare system... Furthermore, this person said most of these Walmart women could not find work ANYWERE ELSE but Walmart...as many are unsuitable for even other low cost retailers, like Target...
This leaves the impression that the Women of Walmart are a bunch of dish-water blond losers who are abused by their male partners and are basically desperate for anything they can get...
Of course, the Women of Walmart could strike back at this dismal image;
And perhaps do a WOMEN OF WALMART CALENDER for 2006--wherein they are wearing nothing but their corporate "slave liveries" that say: "How may I help you?"
That might get some notice for the plight of women at Walmart in the "war room"...and with the public at large...?
Tuesday, November 1, 2005
FED MUST CONTINUE RAISING RATES...INDEFINITELY!
These "hopes" for a softening of Fed language are totally ill founded...
It's all about the debt, deficit and the dollar...and the impact they have on commodities, particularly oil and gas. And of course the ASSET BUBBLES in stocks and real estate...simply must be stopped or they will create a crisis not unlike the S&L collapse of recent memory...
It's all about the debt, deficit and the dollar...and the impact they have on commodities, particularly oil and gas. And of course the ASSET BUBBLES in stocks and real estate...simply must be stopped or they will create a crisis not unlike the S&L collapse of recent memory...
DEMOCRATS PICKING WRONG ARMAGGEDON?
While the so-called Religious Ultra Right are salivating for the coming Supreme Court "Armaggedon..."
...I question whether the Democrats and liberals are picking the right fight?
Many in the liberal left are treating "abortion rights" AS IF it were THE major issue to all of America... It simply isn't.
Abortion Rights are important to only a small segment of the American population... Just as "Gay Marriage" is important to only a small segment of the public.
By pushing Abortion Rights and Gay Marriage the Democrats hand the Republican Rich the PERFECT ISSUES with which to attract Bubba White Men, and the Religious and Rural Poor.
Gay Marriage and Abortion are CHEAP ISSUES...They don't cost Republicans a thing! Its all about hype and promises of pie-in-the-sky "Constitutional Amendments" ....and no money has to be spent to achieve the bogus "social and moral" goals...
Thus, and most importantly, the Tax Cuts for the Rich can keep on going!
And the looting of pension plans and 401ks! And the shipping of jobs to China and India can continue unabated...
IF THE DEMOCRATS WANT A FIGHT WITH THE REPUBLICANS...THEY SHOULD MAKE IT A FIGHT ON ECONOMIC ISSUES...
It should be all about THE RIGHT TO HEALTH CARE...
Not the Right to have an abortion without "notification" of the husband and/or parents in the case of minors.
These spousal/parental "notification" arguments are small potatoes socially.
Very few people are actually impacted by them...BUT, THESE ISSUES ARE THE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE REPUBLICANS POLITICALLY!
Gay "marriage" verus "civil unions" was HUGE FOR REPUBLICANS IN THE LAST ELECTION... But if "civil unions" are functionally and legally the same as "marriage"...why have a major fight just over the name! It makes no sense...
But, to Republicans it means the control of the Congress and the White House and the ability to have continued the looting of the economy by Wall Street and International Capital!
IN SHORT, IF THE DEMOCRATS WANT TO HAVE AN ARGUMENT WITH REPUBLICANS AND THEIR "CONSERVATIVES" ...IT SHOULD BE ON ECONOMIC AND NOT SOCIAL ISSUES.
Why do women "choose" abortion...? Most often its because of lack of money...or the need to work to support themselves. And of course, the lack of reliable health care.
Democrats should be highlighting--THE CAUSES OF ABORTION...AND NOT THE "RIGHT TO HAVE AN ABORTION."
This approach would shut up the Republican Rich up straightaway;
Because Wall Street Republicans have no desire to provide a social safety net for the working class Bubbas who support them politically "on moral grounds!"
BY ALLOWING THE REPUBLICANS TO TAKE THE "MORAL HIGH GROUND"... ON THE CHEAP;
THE DEMOCRATS ARE FORFEITING THE GAME TO THE ULTRA-RIGHT... AND THUS, ALLOWING INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL TO "WIN" AMONG BUBBA REPUBLICANS AND THE RURAL WHITE POOR.
BY APPROACHING THESE "SOCIAL ISSUES" IN ECONOMIC TERMS...THE DEMOCRATS COULD, PERHAPS, WIN THEIR LONG ARGUMENT WITH THE RURAL POOR AND THE BUBBA RELIGOUS ULTRA-RIGHT...
SO WHY DO DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO ARGUE FROM THEIR WEAKEST POSITIONS?
WHEN MERELY CHANGING THE "TERMS" OF THE DEBATE TO ECONOMIC MATTERS COULD MAKE THE REPUBLICAN "MORAL" ARGUMENTS LOOK LIKE MERE TECHNICALITIES...?
Democrats simply have to learn to define themselves...and not allow their opponents to define them...and that process starts with defining the terms of the debate... But are they up to it?
...I question whether the Democrats and liberals are picking the right fight?
Many in the liberal left are treating "abortion rights" AS IF it were THE major issue to all of America... It simply isn't.
Abortion Rights are important to only a small segment of the American population... Just as "Gay Marriage" is important to only a small segment of the public.
By pushing Abortion Rights and Gay Marriage the Democrats hand the Republican Rich the PERFECT ISSUES with which to attract Bubba White Men, and the Religious and Rural Poor.
Gay Marriage and Abortion are CHEAP ISSUES...They don't cost Republicans a thing! Its all about hype and promises of pie-in-the-sky "Constitutional Amendments" ....and no money has to be spent to achieve the bogus "social and moral" goals...
Thus, and most importantly, the Tax Cuts for the Rich can keep on going!
And the looting of pension plans and 401ks! And the shipping of jobs to China and India can continue unabated...
IF THE DEMOCRATS WANT A FIGHT WITH THE REPUBLICANS...THEY SHOULD MAKE IT A FIGHT ON ECONOMIC ISSUES...
It should be all about THE RIGHT TO HEALTH CARE...
Not the Right to have an abortion without "notification" of the husband and/or parents in the case of minors.
These spousal/parental "notification" arguments are small potatoes socially.
Very few people are actually impacted by them...BUT, THESE ISSUES ARE THE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE REPUBLICANS POLITICALLY!
Gay "marriage" verus "civil unions" was HUGE FOR REPUBLICANS IN THE LAST ELECTION... But if "civil unions" are functionally and legally the same as "marriage"...why have a major fight just over the name! It makes no sense...
But, to Republicans it means the control of the Congress and the White House and the ability to have continued the looting of the economy by Wall Street and International Capital!
IN SHORT, IF THE DEMOCRATS WANT TO HAVE AN ARGUMENT WITH REPUBLICANS AND THEIR "CONSERVATIVES" ...IT SHOULD BE ON ECONOMIC AND NOT SOCIAL ISSUES.
Why do women "choose" abortion...? Most often its because of lack of money...or the need to work to support themselves. And of course, the lack of reliable health care.
Democrats should be highlighting--THE CAUSES OF ABORTION...AND NOT THE "RIGHT TO HAVE AN ABORTION."
This approach would shut up the Republican Rich up straightaway;
Because Wall Street Republicans have no desire to provide a social safety net for the working class Bubbas who support them politically "on moral grounds!"
BY ALLOWING THE REPUBLICANS TO TAKE THE "MORAL HIGH GROUND"... ON THE CHEAP;
THE DEMOCRATS ARE FORFEITING THE GAME TO THE ULTRA-RIGHT... AND THUS, ALLOWING INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL TO "WIN" AMONG BUBBA REPUBLICANS AND THE RURAL WHITE POOR.
BY APPROACHING THESE "SOCIAL ISSUES" IN ECONOMIC TERMS...THE DEMOCRATS COULD, PERHAPS, WIN THEIR LONG ARGUMENT WITH THE RURAL POOR AND THE BUBBA RELIGOUS ULTRA-RIGHT...
SO WHY DO DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO ARGUE FROM THEIR WEAKEST POSITIONS?
WHEN MERELY CHANGING THE "TERMS" OF THE DEBATE TO ECONOMIC MATTERS COULD MAKE THE REPUBLICAN "MORAL" ARGUMENTS LOOK LIKE MERE TECHNICALITIES...?
Democrats simply have to learn to define themselves...and not allow their opponents to define them...and that process starts with defining the terms of the debate... But are they up to it?
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