Friday, September 30, 2005

CONSUMERS SNAP SHUT...MARKET GOES 'WHIPPY"

The extent to which the Plunge Protection Boys and Girls are having trouble controlling the market can be seen in today's MASSIVELY WHIPPY action on the street...

The market wants to go down...but the shills won't let it.


As long as the "free float" stays managable the Wall Street shills will likely be able to control the market with their own money, and that supplied by the Fed and other market masters.

Yet, at some point, there will be a Tsunami-like surge, and the float will become unmanageable...this, of course, will be the long over-due and predicted "BIG ONE."


I suspect that Dow 10,000 is where the line in the sand has been drawn by the Wall Street shills and market masters...

Any break-down below 10,000 on the Dow simply MUST NOT be allowed to happen... Dow 10,000 is a potential "levy break" that would make the disaster in New Orleans seem "cheap" by comparison. Buy it, Sell it, Trade it...but be prepared to head for the Hills if the worst happens without notice.

NEW DRAPES FOR THE MONEY RUNNERS...?

Will "window dressing" save the markets today? Perhaps, it always seems to...but then comes the inevitable Monday Morning.

Alas, it's always Monday Morning on the Street these days... A "Nowhere Fast" Market is about the best we can hope for these days...but who would actually put new money into this mess...?

And what happens if the public finally "wises up" to the fact that their 401ks are merely the TOOLS OF THE RICH for their wealth maintance and for "distribution" of paper assets to the unsuspecting suckers, (aka "retail investors")...?

Well, perhaps that a story for early 2006. Ya Think? Stay tuned...

DISMAL QUARTER FOR WALL STREET LOOMS...

The Wall Street Shills and the stock Hypsters on Tout TV...

may have a hard time spinning the next quarter on Wall Street. Virtually every number is a BIG DOWNER...

Consumers are snapping shut like a GIANT CLAM...

Oil and Gas are at records that don't seem to be "wrong" given market conditions.

The Fed is Hell-Bent on reversing the "One Percent Solution" that has given us the BIGGEST housing bubble in history.

The Dollar simply must be supported ON FUNDAMENTALS, LIKE HIGHER RATES, AND NOT SOLELY ON THE LARGESS OF OUR CHUMS, THE COMMUNIST CHINESE.

The market is massively over-priced historically. At the high point of the 1929 Bubble, a P/E of 20 was considered hugely expensive...NOW IT'S SEEN AS "NORMAL!" Yields are still low, but they no longer justify this MASSIVE P/E MULTIPLE... Indeed, the Era of High P/Es may be over for good in 2006. And then there is "the conundrum" which must resolve itself eventually. Or has the Fed now lost all control of interest rates in the US...in favor of the Bank of China's bond buying policies....?

Finally, this has been a NOWHERE FAST MARKET... And I doubt the public will support it with their 401k money for much longer. The public knows that their 401ks are a BLACK HOLE supporting the stock options of the mega-rich...and they are running out of patience. Indeed, I know some folks who are even looking to "art, collectibles and rare books" INSTEND OF STOCKS AND REAL ESTATE...as "investments for retirement!" Good Luck on that...

Finally, does ANYONE really believe that Iraq will "turn out OK" for Dubya and the Neocons...? That notion seems to have gone the way of "it always goes up" on Wall Street!

Still the capacity of Americans for foolishness and self-delusion should never be under-estimated. After all, many of them actually DID vote for Bush in 2004...and how stupid was that!

Let's face it...the Plunge Protection Guys are going to have their hands full in October...but Washington still does control the Power of the Printing Press...even if it's Power over the Purse is waning fast.

NEW SOURCE OF REPUBLICAN VOTES...?

Thursday, September 29, 2005

BYE, BYE CHEAPER GAS...

....but when did it get cheaper...I musta missed it.

MARKETS PLUNGE AT OPEN...

Hey, why wait till tomorrow to get out!

Does anyone really want to hold stocks in October...knowing what we NOW KNOW about the real state of the US economy heading into 2006...

EXIT NOW...SEEMS TO BE THE THOUGHT OF MANY... Of course there is the secret Plunge Protection Team...and the Fed Shills on the Street. But still, these markets are deep, and the "float" could become unmanageable if everyone "wakes up" at the same time...and what better time to reevaluate the "situation" than at the end of September...with the new "annus horribilis," 2006 looming ever larger every day.

ROBERTS: FIRST GAY ON THE SUPREME COURT?

Oh wait, I forgot about Justice Souter....

ECONOMY NOT IN GOOD SHAPE...

One of the annoying little "Urban Legends" going around

is that the economy was in "good shape" before the hurricanes... IT'S WASN'T!

Consider:

Greenspan's HYPER-LIQUIDITY EXPERIMENT to "save the bubble" was causing massive distortions in asset prices...ala the HOUSING BUBBLE. Additionally, by keeping interest rates so low for so long...Greenspan forced people into the stock market or other "assets" just to avoid those .9% yeilds on six month CDs! Remember?

Greenspan's faith in the curative powers of monetary policy has never really been put to the test...or survived an ENTIRE CYCLE of economic activity. Sure, the G-Man "saved the bubble" and allowed his chums in the boardrooms to "float" their underwater stock options from the late 90's. But jobs have suffered mightily in the process.

The "job numbers" are "good" only because of the massive dumbing down that journalism has been required to do during the Dubya Years...

Wages are low in most of the new jobs and indeed, most jobs are either temporary, part time or in "hospitality" industries like restaruants and bars... This is not a formula for long term prosperity.

The role of debt in the economy is also conveniently ignored... Housing refis have been routine...and now CREATIVE MORTGAGES are the dominant form of real estate loans. This will eventually cause a massive crash in the banking sector...which Greenspan will be unable to "protect" with the One Percent Solution this time around.

The trade and budget deficits are also ignored... But for China's generosity the US would be a pauper nation...like in Latin America...high interest rates and massive poverty. And poverty in the US is growing all the time.

And the beat goes on...THIS NOTION THAT THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN "HEALTHY" IS STRICTLY A WALL STREET "URBAN LEGEND" THAT WAS PICKED UP BY THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA.

BUT REMEMBER, REALITY TENDS TO STRIKE ALL AT ONCE...AND THE JOBS NUMBER NEXT WEEK COULD BE THE EVENT THAT PULLS BACK THE CURTAIN ON THE WIZARD OF THE FED AND REVEALS THE HORRID TRUTH ABOUT WHAT THE LAST FEW YEARS HAVE REALLY BEEN ABOUT...ASSET INFLATION AND MORE ASSET INFLATION!

GREENSPAN HAS BEEN RUNNING THE ECONOMY "AS IF" ONLY CAPITAL AND ASSETS MATTERED... HE HAS BEEN BURNING THE CANDLE AT BOTH ENDS TO ACHIEVE THIS DISMAL GOAL, AND NOW THE END IS NEAR... THE PENDULUM IS STARTING TO SWING AGAINS GREENSPAN AND HIS WALL STREET CRONIES NOW...AND NOTHING CAN STOP IT.

Tuesday, September 27, 2005

FREE LYNNDIE!

The notion of a lowest level "grunt" like Lynndie England taking the fall for the ENTIRE PENTAGON ESTABLISHMENT AND THE WHITE HOUSE is really too much!

Lynndie is a righteous babe! Totally not responsible for the goings on at Gitmo and in Iraq. And she can lead me around on a leash anytime... Arf! Arf!

FREE LYNNDIE!

GREENSPAN REVIEWS ECONOMIC HISTORY...BUT A FALLACY ENSUES!

Greenspan seems to be "summing up" in his speech today...

He expounds on basic economic history; and then comes down four-square in favor of
CREATIVE DESTRUCTION.

And what does CREATIVE DESTRUCTION give you? FLEXABILITY ACCORDING TO GREENSPAN.

Greenspan notes that failed capital ventures morph into new ventures that take advantage of "new technologies." And perhaps this is true...

On protectionism he says:

"Protectionism in all its guises, both domestic and international, does not contribute to the welfare of American workers. At best, it is a short-term fix at a cost of lower standards of living for the nation as a whole. We need increased education and training for those displaced by creative destruction, not a stifling of competition."

BUT THE ONE BIG FALLACY IN HIS ARGUMENT JUMPS OUT AT YOU CLEARLY:

GREENSPAN ASSUMES THAT LABOR IS AS FLEXIBLE AS CAPITAL...BUT WORKERS TO NOT MIGRATE AS EASILY AS CAPITAL!!

THAT IS GREENSPANS FALLACY!

IF LABOR IS "INELASTIC" IN IT'S ABILITY TO MIGRATE...THEN SOME NATIONS WILL BE LOSERS AND OTHERS WILL BE WINNERS... AND THE WINNERS WILL BE THOSE ECONOMIES WITH THE CHEAPEST AND/OR BEST SKILLED LABOR.

HERE'S THE PROBLEM: THAT ISN'T THE US...AND IT WILL NEVER BE!

Greenspan thus DOOMS AMERICAN to a life in the economic shadowlands...SOLELY SO CAPITAL CAN DO ITS THING...ie MIGRATE TO CHEAP LABOR ECONOMIES!

If you read Greenspan's speech critically that is the only conclusion you can draw.

Greenspan also never mentions the DIFUSION OF TECHNOLOGY and the "evils" that arise when China and India are allowed to "skip a generation or two" to compete with the Western industrial powers. THIS ONLY INCREASES THE DANGER OF GREENSPAN'S FALLACY.

TAKEN IN IT'S BEST LIGHT GREENSPAN HAS TOLD AMERICANS TODAY QUITE SIMPLY: "YOU'RE DOOMED."

AND THAT, GENTLE READER, IS AN UNACCEPTABLE CONCLUSION IN MY BOOK.

BIG MARKET CRASH IN OCTOBER....?

Lest we forget, October is the month for BIG MARKET CRASHES...

Of course the pundits will tell you that September is supposedly worse...and the markets have been "well mangaged" by the Fed and it's shills for the last few years.

But could that all be ending this year? Remember this has been an ANNUS HORRIBILIS for the US in almost every possible way...and there doens't seem to be anymore DEUS EX MACHINA rescues in the offing...

I won't bore you with a recitation of the various details of our recent and not so recent disasters...just watch the news at 6pm.

The Fed has done wonders proping up the markets of late...but could that all be ending soon...remember OCTOBER IS WHEN INVESTORS START THINKING ABOUT...NEXT YEAR!!

AND 2006 COULD BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DISASTEROUS...AND THE "END OF DAYS" IF YOU BELIEVE THE BOOK THE "BIBLE CODE."

WITH OR WITHOUT HELP FROM GOD OR GREEDSPAN...THIS COULD BE THE YEAR WHEN THE "OCTOBER CRASH" RETURNS WITH A VENGENCE...

BECAUSE THERE IS VERY LITTLE HOLDING UP THIS BUBBLE ECONOMY NOW. And time is not on our side anymore.

THE GREENSPAN SPEECH...

Greenspan is in "cover your ass" mode now and for the rest of his disasterous tenure at the Fed.

CONFIDENCE PLUNGE...

But...one question:

What took it so long? Did anyone really believe Dubya & Co had the public in mind FOR ANYTHING that they have done? How stupid is Bubba?

Shades of Jimmy Carter...lets call it the BUSH MALISE....

BEND IT TILL IT BREAKS....

America has become the Land of Free Trade and the Home of Neo-Trailer Trash...

Between the mega-rich and the mega-stupid the Sun doesn't get much above the horizon anymore...

Let's bend it till it breaks...creative destruction is necessary in a Capitalist Economy...right?

Monday, September 26, 2005

MARKETS FALSE OPTIMISM....

Was Rita "not so bad" or was she just not Katrina in New Orleans?

(And remember we ain't out of the woods on Hurricane Season yet).

The markets' false optimism today should be a one day affair...alas, the OLD REALITIES are what needs to be focused on...massive debt and an unwinnable war that is destabilizing the world's oil rich nations like Saudi Arabia

Lately Wall Streets response to the STOCK MARKET has been as "scripted" as a Fox Network "Reality TV" series!

THIS IS THAT DREADED FINAL WEEK OF THE QUARTER...AND EVERY REASONABLE INDICATOR FOR THE FINAL QUARTER IS POINTING DOWN!

MY HUNCH IS THAT THIS WEEK WILL BE A DOWNER...UNLESS MASSIVE "WINDOW DRESSING" KICKS IN ON FRIDAY.

HOUSING POT STILL BUBBLING...! MASSIVE INFLATION!

The huge increase in existing housing sales and prices proves

that the REAL ESTATE BUBBLE is still boiling in the US economy.

This is really one of those situations, like in 1999, where it's WHEN NOT WHETHER BUBBLE WILL BREAK....

CLEARLY THE G-MAN HAS HIS WORK CUT OUT FOR HIM.... Greedspan has created a monster that he can no longer control...and as with most economic monsters it's going to take a lot of "over-shooting" to kill it...

Just as the stock bubble needed constant tranquilizing to kill it...so too, the Real Estate Bubble, NOW DANGEROUSLY LARGE, will need a massive withdrawal of stimulus to stop it.

SO THE FED WAS RIGHT TO INCREASE RATES LAST MONTH...AND WITH THE CURRENT NEWS ON HOUSE PRICES WE MAY EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF RATE HIKES WELL INTO NEXT YEAR...

MY HUNCH IS THAT IT WILL TAKE A 7% FED FUNDS RATE TO STOP THE HOUSE BUBBLE...

And of course "The Conundrum" will likely have to resolve itself along the way in 2006.

This news on housing prices has got to be bad for bonds...no matter what the Kindergarden at the NYSE thinks...

THE MASSIVE INFLATION IN HOUSING PRICES WILL STOP...THOSE "$80,000 HOUSES THAT ARE SELLING FOR $350,000 AFTER FIVE YEARS WILL COME BACK DOWN...

PITY THE POOR SOULS WHO BUY AT TODAY'S INFLATED HOUSE PRICE LEVELS...! OF THIS WE CAN BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN....

ALAS, THEY ARE BUYING CISCO AT $80!

Saturday, September 24, 2005

DEMOCRATS ONLY HOPE: FIND AN INTELLECTUAL BUBBA

More later..... Democrats desperate quest for the new Clinton.

NEW ORLEANS: THE NEW AMERICAN VENICE?

Could New Orleans be "re-built" on a series of "canals" in the various neighborhoods

...ala Venice, Italy....?

This would solve the "water problem" and provide recreational and tourist appeal at the same time!

Clearly something different is called for...instead of a French Quarter Disneyland....perhaps an Italian motif could be added...

NEW ORLEANS, THE AMERICAN VENICE.....

LOVELY RITA...A 'WIN' FOR DUBYA....?

Clearly Dubya & Co. are best at "handling" disasters that never really happened!

Lovely Rita...another top gun moment for the Bushies...!

DEMOCRACY BY FATWA....?

Dubya says that he's bringing democracy to the middle east

...and to Iraq in particular...but consider:

The Grand Poobah Sistani has just made it a "sin" NOT to vote for the new Constitution for Iraq...so now the Shia will vote en block for the Constitution...and the Sunni will likely abstain again from voting.

Somehow this does not seem to be the kind of democracy that Dubya had planned in Iraq...Democracy by FATWA!.... I mean these Shia are as bad as the American "religious right."

Finally, the Saudis have been warning all in the administration who will listen that IRAQ IS FALLING APART...AND REGIONAL WAR MAY BE THE RESULT.

IT IS STARTING TO BECOME CLEAR THAT THE NEOCON GOALS IN THIS "OPTIONAL WAR" ARE GETTING MORE FANCIFUL BY THE DAY!

Thursday, September 22, 2005

MARKET RALLIES ON COMING CATASTROPHE? DOW 10,000 LEVY BREACHED?

How "managed" are the US markets?

Any market that "rallies" on the coming catastrophe in Texas...is highly suspect. But, the US markets have been suspect for a long, long time now.

MY HUNCH IS THAT DOW 10,000 IS A LEVY THAT CAN NOT BE BREACHED...

Any plunge below 10,000 would releast the Fed Shills and Market Masters from any obligation to "stand in front of a runaway train" and stop a market freefall. Indeed, I suspect that many sell orders are already in place at Dow 9,999!

Truth be told this market "deserves" to be at Dow 6000 or less! Nothing is being done about the US "deficits" which are now so far out of control that no one is even talking about them any more...but they will...they always do.

THE CURRENT "LEVITATION" IS STRICKLY A PRODUCT OF THE STREET, WASHINGTON AND THE FED ATTEMPTING TO MAINTAIN THE ENTIRE BASIS OF THE US ECONOMY...NAMELY AN ABILITY TO MAINTAIN PERPETUAL ASSET BUBBLES...!

My hunch is that once the full magnitude of the catastropes in BOTH GULFS...(middle eastern and the American South) is know AND FULLY DIGESTED...the markets will break.

THE BUBBLE DAZE WILL FINALLY BE OVER...THEN A NEW DAWN WILL ARISE. A NEW ECONOMIC WORLD ORDER WILL BE QUICKLY ESTABLISHED WITH THE US TAKING IT'S "RIGHTFUL" PLACE BEHIND CHINA, INDIA AND THE OTHER EASTERN ECONOMIC GIANTS...

LET'S CALL IT THE COMING "END OF DAZE...?"

BIBLICAL PLAGUES: ASK ALLAH TO MAKE IT STOP!

One would think that US MILITARISM was being punished by Devine Forces

with all of these "natural disasters" that have befallen America in the last few weeks.

Ever since Dubya & Co have taken over in Washington it has been one disaster after another...it's a miracle that things have held up as well as they have...

But for that we have only the generosity of the Pagan Chinese to thank!

And ever since Dubya let the Likudnics run American middle-east policy things have only gotten worse there too...now with catastrophes in BOTH GULFS...the one in the middle east and the one in the southern US!

My hunch is that 2006 will be a year like no other...that's what the book THE BIBLE CODE says...in fact The Bible Code says that 2006 will be THE END OF DAYS...

Well, perhaps it will only be the end of discretionary driving in the US with $5 gas apparently on the way...

Perhaps 'Tis time for Dubya & Co to repent...and ask Allah stop the Biblical Plagues that have befallen US "Infidels..."

Wednesday, September 21, 2005

FED SPEAKS, WALL STREET SHRIEKS...!

The Fed did the right thing yesterday...

BECAUSE DEBTOR NATIONS HAVE TO SUPPORT THEIR CURRENCY.

The notion that "the world" will support the US PORK SPENDING IN THE SOUTH is just a little wishful thinking...

And it's amazing how quickly the RED STATE REPUBLICANS have FLIP-FLOPPED INTO BEING BIG SPENDERS...all at the expense of BLUE STATE TAXPAYERS!

A flip-flop worthy of John C Calhoun or Henry Clay to be sure!

But with the so called Bubba Conservatives now BIG SPENDERS...WHAT CHOICE DID GREENSPAN HAVE?

THE AMAZING THING IS THAT THE BOND MARKET HAS HELD UP HAS WELL AS IT HAS!

GREENSPAN NOW FINDS HIMSELF IN THE WORSE OF ALL POSSIBLE WORLDS...A WEAKENED CURRENCY DUE TO MASSIVE SPENDING AND DEBT...AND CONSUMER THAT IS MAXED UP...AND A BOND MARKET THAT IS POISED TO CRASH WITHOUT NOTICE.

HE HAD TO RAISE RATES JUST TO BRING SOME HOPE OF STABILITY INTO THE SYSTEM IN WASHINGTON THAT IS FRANKLY SPIRALING OUT OF CONTROL...ALL THANKS TO DUBYA AND THE SOTHERN BUBBA REPUBLICANS WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM THE INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL "LOOTERS" ON WALL STREET...

GLOOM AND BOOM IN REAL ESTATE...?

I was at a confab of about 75 commerical real estate professionals yesterday

...and some amazing stuff was said: First everyone got up and introduced themselves, said what they did, and gave their opinion on the state of the commerical real estate market...

AMAZINGLY, IT WAS ALL GLOOM AND DOOM!

WE ARE OVER-BUILT AND STILL BUILDING MORE.... said one person.

TENANT RETENTION IS THE NAME OF THE GAME...said another.

DEINDUSTRIALIZATION HAS COLLAPSED THE INDUSTRIAL MARKET...AND WAREHOUSING IS WEAK REGIONALLY.

WE ARE A THROW AWAY ECONOMY WITH NEW BUILDING STEALING THE TENANTS FROM OLDER BUILDINGS... Buildings are like "Dixie Cups" use 'em and toss 'em.

RESIDENTIAL RENTALS HAVE COLLAPSED IN MOST AREAS.

*****************

On the "bright side"....

RETAIL RENTALS ARE "STRONG"... Laid off managers are "buying their own businesses" vowing "never again will someone do this (the layoff) to me." Others, who can't find jobs are starting undercapitalized businesses...(an alas, three months later dying like flies!)

VACANT LAND IS STRONG...GOTTA HAVE SOMEPLACE TO PUT ALL THAT "NEW CONSTRUCTION!" RIGHT?

CONCLUSION?

The ultra-low rates that Greenspan used to protect the stock bubble has created "distortions" in the real estate market.....

1. WE ARE OVER-STORED AND GETTING MORE OVER-STORED EVERYDAY AS COMMERICAL BUILDERS "DO THEIR THING" THANKS TO LOW RATES.

2. BUILDERS NEED LAND TO BUILD ON.

3. RETAIL IS "STRONG" BUT NOT WELL FINANCED...AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE AMERICAN CONSUMER DUE TO $3 GAS IS NOT HELPING. AND RATES ARE RISING ALA THE FED. AND THE NEW BANKRUPTCY LAW IS JUST STARTING TO "SINK IN" ON CONSUMERS WITH HIGH CREDIT CARD DEBT.

4. NEW RETAIL ARE OFTEN REFUGEES FROM "BOOM STATES" LIKE CALIFORNIA...OR LAID OFF OR OTHERWISE JOBLESS "BOOMERS" SEEKING NEW OPPORTUNITIES...(AND OFTEN MORTGAGING THEIR HOME EQUITY TO DO IT!)

SO LET'S CALL IT A LOT OF GLOOM...WITH A LITTLE MISPLACED AND MISGUIDED "BOOM."

GLOOM AND BOOM?


Monday, September 19, 2005

GOD PUNISHING THE BUBBA BELT!

Why is God puninshing the Red States?

It's been one Hurricane after another...in the Bubba Belt. Hey, Bubba why not just leave that plywood up till Christmas! ....Jesus Loves Ya... Ya Think?

But, is this not the Bible Belt? The Southern home of Right to Life, and Gay Bashing, not to mention Jim Crow Racism and other things similarly "divine?"

And worse yet, CONSIDER THIS: When an Act of God was Destroying New Orleans...?


The predominantly Gay French Quarter was SPARED! WHY IS GOD PROTECTING THE GAYS...HUH, BUBBA, HUH....?

AND WHY IS GOD PUNISHING THE BUBBA/BIBLE BELT?

Is God Gay...or what? Hmmmm...?

And by the way...you better fill up your gas tank TONITE! ....Tomorrow gas will be ten cents higher

Saturday, September 17, 2005

MASSIVE CONSUMER COLLAPSE COMING...KATRINA EFFECT, OR...?

Call "it" the KATRINA EFFECT...

Or perhaps it's the $3 gas finally settling into the economy. Or perhaps it's the Iraq Debacle. Or perhaps it's Dubya's pitiful LBJ-esque speech in New Orleans. Or perhaps it's the punk jobs market, recently dumbed down by the Wall Street shills and their Econo-whores. Perhaps it's low wages where any job is a "good job" no matter how poorly paid. Perhaps it's the China Goods Glut finally sinking deep into the consumer mindset. Perhaps it's the smash and grab Kongress so mistrusted by the people. Perhaps it's the new debtor's prison Bankrutcy Law at a time when consumer debt is the only thing "driving the economy." Perhaps it's the punk stock market that is being "managed" by the Fed and it's banking amd brokerage shills, rather than traded honestly. Perhaps it's the Mystery Bond Market being "maintained" by mysterious forces outside of the US. Perhaps it's the world's complete disgusted with Dubya and his haughty ignorance. And even perhaps it's the Bubba Republicans finally wiseing up to the fact that they were Duped by Dubya in the last election; finally realizing that Junior ain't comin back from Iraq and Gas for the truck ain't coming down. Nevertheless, from my perch here on MAIN STREET I can say with absolte confidence that:


A MASSIVE

CONSUMER

COLLAPSE

IS COMING!

Friday, September 16, 2005

WILL IT FLOAT?

Greenspan has his conundrum...

And I have mine, namely: WHATS HOLDING UP THE US BOND MARKET?

Virtually everything is pointing to a weaker dollar...and hence higher oil and other commodity prices. The Bush Deficits are out of control with no end in sight!

THE QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THIS YEAR SHOULD BE:

WILL IT FLOAT?

The bond market that is...and remember without the bond market all the Bubbles Collapse straightaway!

NYTIMES GAMBLES ON SUBSCRIPTIONS....

The NYTimes online will go subscription only...on Sept 19.

This violates the unwritten rule that everything on the Internet is FREE!

I would expect a plunge in online readership...

GEO BUSH, AN AMERICAN CROMWELL, or NEO-PURITANISM IN AMERICA

The similarity between the English Puritans of old and the current American "religious right" is amazing. Could Dubya be an AMERICAN CROMWELL...?

The book SOCIETY AND PURITANISM is an interesting exploration of the old Puritans, who were said to love God with all their soul, but hate their neighbors with all their heart.

The old Puritans "went to church to get their news" it was said...sound like anybody we know?

While old Puritans initially were opposed to the "state religion" of England...they later made an attempt to impose their religious views on everyone during the Cromwell period...could this be the plan of the religious right today?

America has been subject to "revivalism" before...there was the Great Awakening in the 18th Century and the "burnt over districts" of upper New York state in the 1830's.

Indeed, could these "revivalist tendancies" and PURITANISM HAVE BEEN THE FASCISM of the pre-20th Centruy societies? Remember the witch hunts of Old Salem....?

History often rhymns....when it doesnt repeat itself outright.

Wednesday, September 14, 2005

AIRLINES FILE BANKRUPTCY...EN MASSE!

(Pea)Nuts!

Maybe you should too, before the Bush Debtor's Prison "reforms" kick in?

If it's good for CEOs, it's good for JOE Sixpack
...

BYE, BYE WALMART....consumers clam up!

I've been talking with some friends in retailing and they tell me that the consumers in their areas have snapped shut like a clam...

This, of course, is only obvious to everyone, but a Wall Street analyst.

Basically, with gas prices over $2 per gallon we will see nothing but lower numbers for consumer spending for the duration.


And the fact that consumer spending is two thirds of the economy in the US is VERY SCARY INDEED!

BETWEEN JOB LOSES AND LOW WAGES AND HIGH DEBT AND BANKRUPTCY "REFORM" AND HIGH HEALTH CARE COSTS, AND NOW GAS PRICES THE AMERICAN CONSUMER IS CLEARLY ON THE ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST!

THIS WILL NOT GET BETTER ANYTIME SOON...IN FACT WE ARE ONLY SEEING VERY TIP OF THE ICEBERG HERE!

NEXT YEAR, 2006 WILL BE A RECESSION YEAR! ....COUNT ON IT....

HE WHO PROTECTS US...OR A MORON'S MEA CULPA!

So far the only thing Dubya Bush has protected us from is married homos!

He can't handle disasters. He hasn't protected our job base. He has squandered the vast Clinton surplus on tax cuts for the rich and the oil companies, who have raised gas prices to historic highs.

His war is an ongoing catastrophe with no good end in sight, or even possible at this point.

Now he does a mea culpa and we are supposed to be impressed!

Somehow a mea culpa from a competent person would seem somehow "better." Here, with Dubya, we get a MEA CULPA FROM A MORON! WELL, WHAT DID YOU EXPECT WHEN YOU SEND A MORON TO DO A MAN'S JOB?

Bush doesn't "do humility" well...He never has and this time is no expection...

WHAT HE SHOULD SAY IS:

"YOU IDIOTS WERE STUPID ENOUGH TO TRUST ME WITH THIS JOB...SO YOU DESERVED WHAT YOU GOT!"


Tuesday, September 13, 2005

MARKETS TANK ON INFLATION PANIC!

Virtually everthing that has happen this year is MASSIVELY INFLATIONARY...

Finally, Wall Street is getting the news!

YES, BUT IS HE GAY.....?

One of the goofier notions about Roberts is that he is "very intelligent"

AND THEREFORE qualified to be Cheif Justice,... but what does this mean in the context of the law?

Most lawyers have at least a minimum level of intelligence...the Bar Exams are certainly a filter for entry into the legal profession... And indeed, many "worthy" folks have flunked the bar exam many times...but I won't mention any names!

Also, the Law is NOT QUANTUM PHYSICS! There are really no complex formulas or math involved in law.

THE LAW IS SIMPLY A BODY OF WORK THAT HAS ACCRUED OVER TIME, BY WHICH WE REGULATE OUR SOCIETY... IT'S REALLY MORE LIKE "ENGLISH LIT" THAN MATH AND SCIENCE...

And by that I mean that there are really no "wrong answers." You read it, you try to understand it...then if you're lucky you get to opine about it.

JUDGES DO NOT "FIND THE LAW." AND THEY ALWAYS MAKE LAW WHEN THEY "INTERPRET" IT...

The real issue is will Roberts be forward looking and consider the good of the nation, or will he try to protect special interests and thus be a "conservative."

The reason that many conservative judges "don't turn out conservative" is that they SUDDENLY find that they are not in service to SPECIAL INTERESTS anymore...BUT RATHER REPRESENT "ALL THE PEOPLE!" AND THAT IS PRETTY HEADY STUFF FOR A LAW GEEK!

My hunch is that Roberts is young enough to WANT A FUTURE for the US...and he's smart enough to make the most of this incredible opportunity.

AMERICA'S REAL DISASTER: MASSIVE POVERTY!

With Katrina America's true face was shown to the world...

America has a vast underclass, both black and white; these people suvive on miniumum wages and often without health care.

AMERICA IS ABSOLUTELY UNPREPARED TO PROTECT IT'S PEOPLE....THAT WAS THE LESSON OF KATRINA.

With the bottom half of the income distribution literally living hand to mouth...and without any clear social safety net; many have to "pay" their medical bills in bankruptcy court...

With the concentration of wealth at the top there is little hope for the future.

BUT THE REPUBLICAN RICH MAY BE IN FOR TROUBLE...as soon as 2006.

Many Bubba Republicans were duped by Bush on national security and gay bashing last time. But the combination of $3 gas and the Katrina coverage could wise Bubba up.

The stock market has been moribund despite Greenspans LIQUIDITY PANIC which took rates to 1%...now all we have to show for it is a weak dollar, expensive oil and massive debt much of it tied up in the HOUSING BUBBLE! (Although many in the CEO class did get to "distribute" their "under water" stock options!)

AMERICA EITHER GETS A PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT SOON...OR IT MAY BE TOO LATE.

Frankly, I think it's too late already...The American People are just too stupid to save themselves from the Perils of Republican looting....it's just about over for the USA.



Sunday, September 11, 2005

DUBYA: THE DISASTER PRESIDENT....

Does anyone really believe that ALL of these disasters will not take a toll on the economy and the stock and bond markets... How long can the "happy face" last?

Somethings gotta give...the news media and Wall Street are running on fumes right now

Saturday, September 10, 2005

KATRINA: A 100 BILLION DOLLAR PORK BARREL?

Now that's gotta be good for the economy.....

But my hunch is that Greenspan WILL raise rates next time the Fed meets. This notion that he can stop rate hikes now will trash bonds and cause gold and oil to soar.

The US and global economies are still very distorted by the 1% solution that Greenspan started in 2000 to "save the bubble."

Well, he may have saved the bubble after all...but $3 gas will be here to stay if some normalcy is not restored.

A more likely scenario will be a drift down in bonds, and hence up in rates, caused by the massive deficit spending Katrina will cause. And oil prices could start upward again next week now that the post-disaster euphoria rally on Wall Street is done.

Wall Street sees no evil these days...it's all happy face, all the time. Greenspan has never succeeded to disabusing The Street of it's Bubble Fantasies. Wall Street still sees a free lunch around every corner.

The mood could seriously change next week...these "happy disasters" are just too 1990's to be real!

Friday, September 9, 2005

WHAT LIBERALS ARE MISSING....

Amid the media frenzy about Dubya's handling of the New Orleans catastrophe...

The public still strongly supports Bush much to the embarassment of liberals everywhere... What gives?

First, it's not about government or budgets or good public policy! It never was for Republicans

Today the public in the US is divided not by economic class...but by intellectual class! America is and always has been a very ANTI-INTELLECTUAL CULTURE.

Even during the 1930's in the labor/liberal heyday...the "ordinary man" distrusted the intellecutuals and the often "socialist elites."

For the average American today it's all about brains! We just don't trust people with brains! We figure they must be up to something... They must be trying to convince us of something. Or worse to change us in something different. Maybe they want us to "go homo" or like black folks?

That is the secret of BUBBA REPUBLICANISM.... The Republicans like Bubba just the way he is... White, Married, Doesn't read books or follow the news and watches a lot of sports on TV!

WHAT COULD BE BETTER THAN HAVING A POLITICAL PARTY THAT LIKES YOU JUST THE WAY YOU ARE!

NO "NEW AND IMPROVED" BUBBA NECESSARY! No need to read great books or be informed about public policy...Republicans have a "canned" public agenda all ready for you! Just what you like too!

True, while the gay bashing and hidden racism is being appealed to...Bubba's job and pension have disappeared...But Wall Street still likes Bubba just the way he is!

The banks have now eliminated Bubba's right to file bankruptcy on his debts... And Health Care is expensive and problematic...

But at least Bubba doesn't have to vote with Jesse, Al and the Smart Asses and Homos!

That, gentle reader, is why the liberals don't understand Republicans....

WELCOME NYT OP-ED FORUM 'REFUGEES"

KUDOS TO THE NYTIMES FOR CLOSING THEIR OP-ED FORUMS...

Alas, the op-ed forum had become a chatroom for various and sundry nutcases...perhaps fewer than 50 posters dominated the board.

And little if anything was posted concerning the daily editorials or the op-eds...but this type of "degeneration" is common in all "open posting formats" on the Internet.

At the end, it was almost impossible to wade through the drivel and ravings by mostly ignorant or "conservative" posters...to find anything remotely resembling "rational content."

I did my best to provide the forum with occassional contributions...usually only one per day. But the flood of raging "conservative chat" was just too overhelming...

That said, it is odd that the Times would choose to eliminate arguably the most important forum they had going...after all, editorial and op-ed content is the very soul of any newspaper.

Perhaps the op-ed forum could have been better "moderated" and the number of daily postings per reader limited to avoid the worst aspects of the "chatroom?"

Good Luck on what comes next.

Wednesday, September 7, 2005

BILL GROSS SAYS: HEAD FOR THE HILLS!

Alas, Dear Bubble we knew thee well...

THE NEW FACE OF DISASTER....

During the 911 disaster the faces of the victims where nearly all white...

often Jewish bond traders in the financial district.

The outcry for more homeland "protection" was loud and clear...

Now, after New Orleans, the faces of the victims are mostly poor and black. Indeed, this is likely to be the New Face of Once and Future Disasters in America from now on.

WILL THE URGE TO SPEND EVER MORE MONEY ON HOMELAND SECURITY BE REDUCED, NOW THAT WE KNOW WHO REALLY NEEDS THE PROTECTION...?

Katrina will break the bank in Washington. Alas, the "beast" has been starved. Perhaps it's time for International Capital to just move off-shore and let the Bubba Republicans in the South figure it out on their own...?

KATRINA CHANGED EVERYTHING!

JUDGE ROBERTS: 40 YEAR OLD VIRGIN?

As a dyed in the wool liberal,

who borders on being a Euro-Socialist, for some strange reason Judge Roberts does not seem a threat to my liberal causes...

For one thing, Roberts and the "conservatives" surely will not be able to put women back in the kitchen, pregnant and shoeless. And clearly Afro-Americans need not fear the return of Jim Crow...nowadays

Indeed, all FEDERAL LAWS under the Constitution ARE solely written under the DUE PROCESS CLAUSE, the EQUAL PROTECTION CLAUSE OF THE 14TH AMENDMENT, and the COMMERCE CLAUSE...

What few people realize is that the STATES are the only jurisdictions where TRUE COMMON LAW APPLIES...

In other words, Federal Law is very "specialized" and somewhat of an odd duck in the legal system... Federal Law is TOTALLY dependant on the above three "clauses" of the Constitution to even exist.

The real problems came in the South when Southern Blacks were being denied various rights by the white majority in the STATE LEGISLATURES.... But those days are pretty much over now.

Even the so-called "Right to an Abortion" is an odd "Federal Right," because even if Roe vs Wade were overturned surely NOT ALL STATES would outlaw abortion.

The entire argument here seems to be WHAT CAN STATES DO...? AND WHAT CAN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PREVENT THEM FROM DOING...BY USING THE US CONSTITUTION. IN OTHER WORDS WHAT RIGHTS ARE FEDERAL, AND WHICH ARE DEFINED BY THE STATE LEGISLATURES.

If some states choose to be backward...so what? Not all states will be backward...

Perhaps the real problem here is Roberts personal life...? Any man who marries for the first time in his mid-40's has some explaining to do...about 30 years worth!

Roberts' personal life should be examined carefully to made sure there are not some problems in this important area. Or, are we to just assume that the prospective Chief Justice was a 40 year old virgin?

Remember, a few years back we almost had a VP candidate who had shock treatments for depression... And lately we've had a President with a history of drinking problems and God knows what else!

CAUTION IS ADVISABLE WHEN PICKING SOMEONE FOR VERY HIGH OFFICE...

Tuesday, September 6, 2005

MARKETS SOAR ON VARIOUS DISASTERS...!

What can you say about markets that soar on disasterous news....?

Ahh....they're being "managed....?"

Of course Wall Street is totally out of touch...someone noted recently that it's strickly the rich and the Fed who are maintaining the "illusion" of high valuations.

So Wall Street really doesn t merit serious comment anymore...except to say that as long as the Fed and it's shills on the Street can support the Dow above 10,000...the "float" will be managable--and the illusion of the BUBBLE DAZE will be maintained...

BUT DOW 10,000 IS THE SINE QUO NON NOW....THAT IS THE LESSON OF THE LAST YEAR or so...THE MARKET MASTERS, WITH THE HELP OF THE FED, WILL SUPPORT THE MARKETS BUT ONLY UP TO A POINT.... THEY WILL NOT STAND IN FRONT OF A RUNAWAY TRAIN.

.....BUT IF DOW 10000 IS EVER BROKEN...ALL BETS ARE OFF.

SO FAR SO GOOD....THE SHAM CONTINUES; FOR NOW.

MY PET GOAT 2...or the true face of disaster

One thing I never did understand was this notion that Dubya is somehow a "leader."

I was unimpressed with Dubya during 911...and after.

His performance before and during the Iraq debacle was equally disasterous.

And the New Orleans catastrophe was just more of the same.

Frankly I have always seen Dubya as more of a joke than a leader.... His fiscal policy is horrid. His incompetence is obvious to all who are not themselves incompetent.

Frankly, Dubya and Co could not be trusted to run a church Bingo Game...nevermind the Free World.

Recently we have seen MY PET GOAT 2....and we know the true face of disaster...the POOR AND UNDERCLASS....Alas, not the Wall Steet Bond traders of 911!

How are we going to get through the next 3 years? Luck is the only thing we have going for us now!

Saturday, September 3, 2005

THE MOVIEGOER....

I have many memories of old New Orleans.

The very first time I was there, I parked my car in a downtown lot and was crossing Canal Street...when I suddenly jumped back on the curb...I had almost been run over by a Street Car! And, yes, it really was The Street Car named "Desire!"

I have been to many, many Mardi Gras...perhaps as many as a dozen over the years.

And I've always said that Bourbon Street is an "aquired taste"...you usually aquired it shortly after your second or third beer...

I have walked every street in the Quarter...SEVERAL times...

I've seen the parades and caught the beads and doubloons from nearly every "Krewe..." Bacchus is the best parade on Sunday night. And early Tuesday, the Zulu parade is the oldest all black Krewe...Zulu "coconuts" are prized highly by parade goers. Later Rex and Comus come down from the Garden District and when they "meet" Mardi Gras is officially over. Where the bars were packed till four or five AM on Monday....at the stroke of MIDNITE on Tuesday IT'S OVER!

After Midnight, the Quarter clears out very fast; Ash Wednesday has begun...

Then it's over...till next year. Perhaps it's time for the Moviegoer to walk over to Cafe du Monde...then take the Trolly back to the Garden District...

DUBYA NEEDS HIS MORNING AFTER PILL!

After the media coverage of Washington's response to the Catastrophe in New Orleans, Dubya & Co must be looking for a "morning after pill!"

Considering how Dubya handled the "morning after" in Baghdad, things are not promising.

For one thing, the MERE evacuation of "refugees" is NOT THE END! IT'S ONLY THE BEGINNING...!

Very likely the "vernacular" housing of the New Orleans neighborhoods CAN NOT BE REBUILT... Frankly we don't build that kinda stuff anymore. Quaint and picturesque is expensive and not really reproducible...and especially not for "Po'Folks."

So does the Federal government build Stalinist "apartment blocks" for the teeming masses of New Orleans poor? SHADES OF CHICAGO'S GHETTO HIGH RISES!

Does the government "relocate" the poor to other cities...? (Probably the easiest and cheapest soluation.) And give the land to developers...after new stronger levies are built?

What of schools? And jobs for the "refugees?" And the "clean up" will be Herculean! Where will the tons of debris be put? Into the Gulf? And finally, should New Orleans EVEN be rebuilt it it's current configuration? Or should it be relocated to safer ground?

THIS THING ISN'T OVER...IT'S JUST BEGINNING. AND IT COULD MADE THE HALF TRILLION WASTED IN IRAQ PALE BY CONPARISON...

DUBYA SERIOUSLY NEEDS TO TAKE A MORNING AFTER PILL...ASAP!

Friday, September 2, 2005

OUR JOBLOSS PROSPERITY....? NO SIGNIFICANT JOB CREATION.

Somthing is wrong with the American unemployment numbers...

The number of "jobs" being "created" is barely enough to cover new workers entering the labor pool...YET THE "UNEMPLOYMENT RATE" IS DROPPING!

Are more people simply dropping out of the labor force, and/or doubling up with friends and living with relatives? Has our new illegal labor pool skewed the labor paradigms? Are more people, God help them, becoming "self employed?" And, are these newly self employed really acting like the "apple sellers" of the Great Depression; desperately seeking any money making opportunity on which to subsist?

WE NOW HAVE THE "MIRACLE OF LOW UNEMPLOYMENT" WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT JOB CREATION!

DOES ANYONE CARE...? OF COURSE NOT. WASHINGTON IS FOLLOWING THE "NEW ORLEANS MODEL" OF CRISIS SOLVING NOW...

GOD HELP THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.

REPUBLICAN BARBARISM ON DISPLAY!

Republicans believe the all problems can be solved by:

(a) MORE BOMBING and (b) TAX CUTS FOR THE RICH!

The flaws in this "theory of governance" are coming out of the closet in New Orleans...in droves

THE VAST "INVISIBLE" UNDERCLASS IN AMERICA IS NOW GETTING THE EXPOSURE THAT THE PROTO-FASCIST AMERICAN MEDIA HAVE DENIED IT FOR SO LONG.

AND THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING!

What is happening in New Orleans now is nothing less than government sanctioned genocide.

New Orleans has become Baghdad by the Lake. Soon the death toll will quickly start to mount; and Bush's HOMELAND SECURITY SHAM WILL BE EXPOSED AS NOTHING MORE THAN A FRAUD--WITH "NO-BID" CONTRACTS FOR CRONIES, HALLIBURTON AND THE GREEDY RICH.

Still, it was all so predictable and inevitable!

Sooner or later, Bush's very very bad policy decisions would catch up with him... Let us hope that the absolute BARBARISM OF REPUBLICAN "COMPASSIONATE CONSERVATISM" IS FINALLY EXPOSED.

AND ALSO HOPE THAT RED STATE BUBBA REPUBLICANS REALIZE THAT THEY HAVE BEEN DUPED BY THE WALL STREET RICH AND THE WASHINGTON ELITES.

The South will now suffer MIGHILY for their political ignorance...and it would be easy for reasonable people in Blue States to ignore them... But the Republicans are already doing that!

MAY GOD HAVE MERCY ON THE PEOPLE OF NEW ORLEANS. AND LETS HOPE SOME LESSONS HAVE BEEN LEARNED.