Tom Friedman's column in the Sunday NYT shows just how badly out of
touch this guy has become!
Friedman's giddy praise of young Indian workers in the "call centers"
of Bangladore was OVER THE TOP!
The Times should rent Mr. Friedman a car, and let him drive around
American "fly-over-country" for a week or two!
I wish that Friedman would have the same enthusiasm for AMERICAN YOUTH has he apparently has for the youth of India!
Friedman's defense of the Iraq Quagmire and the Indian Jobs Debacle
are simply incredible.
Now, I don't criticize Friedman's RIGHT TO SPEAK, but rather I question the editorial "balance" on the Times Op-Ed page.
The Times already has Safire and Brooks on the conservative side of things.
Of course, Safire makes no sense whatsoever, and his columms are essentially unreadable.
And, whenever David Brooks tries to intellectualize his conservative views, he ends up sounding like a backdoor liberal! Go figrue!
FREIDMAN HAS BEEN OUT OF THE COUNTRY FOR WAY TOO LONG!
HE DESPERATELY NEEDS A "GET ACQUAINTED" SESSION WITH THE AMERICAN
PEOPLE!
ABSENT THAT? GET SOMEONE ELSE TO FILL FRIEDMAN'S SPACE ON THE OP-ED
PAGE OF THE TIMES.
BALANCE MUST BE RESTORED.....AND FRIEDMAN'S VIEWS ARE THAT OF A TINY
MINORITY, THAT DON'T READ THE TIMES ANYWAY!
POSTSCRIPT: If I had a subscription to the Times I would cancel it!
Sunday, February 29, 2004
Saturday, February 28, 2004
DUBYA'S BIG BUBBA PROBLEM
Everywhere you hear the same old pundit talk!
There's Red States and Blue States. And, the South is solid for the
Republicans.
But consider:
IS THE SOUTH REALLY IN THE POCKET OF THE REPUBLICANS THIS TIME?
THIS IS NOT 2000!
AND, A LOT HAS HAPPEN OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS THAT COULD CHANGE THE
CALCULUS OF "RED" AND "BLUE" THIS TIME.
For example, in 2000 the Bubble mentality was still alive and well;
so the only question facing voters then was:
DO YOU WANT THE SAME OLD, SAME OLD PROSPERITY; AS PER CLINTON-GORE?
OR, DO YOU WANT THAT PROSPERITY, ALONG WITH THE TAX CUTS PROMISED BY
DUBYA!
Remember, back then, we were debating:
WHAT TO DO WITH THAT BIG NASTY SURPLUS! Remember, Alan was going to
have to start investing US Treasury Funds on E-Bay!
TO USE THE NASTY SURPLUS IN WASHINGTON, OR, "GIVE IT BACK" TO THOSE
NICE TAXPAYERS? THAT WAS THE REAL QUESTION.
REMEMBER? OR, HAVE YOU FORGOTTEN THAT MINOR DETAIL ALREADY?
Then, of course, there was the "blow job" and the "dress" still fresh
in the public mind;
And maybe, a sense that eight years of one party was enough, no
matter how prosperous it was.
Besides Greenspan was in charge of the prosperity stuff! Right?
SO, WHAT THE HELL! LET'S HAVE THE TAX CUTS! AND, THE CLINTON
PROSPERITY! WHY NOT, DAMN IT! WE DESERVE IT!
WELL, THAT WAS THEN. AND THIS IS NOW!
NOW:
The surplus is long gone! Now its deficits out the Wazoo, forever! The "blow job" is in the history books! The WTC was destroyed, while Dubya tried to "sleep" though the middle east crisis! The markets crashed, then recovered because of unsustainable 1% interest rates! Jobs have disappeared for the first time since Hoover! The Rich, who LOOTED Wall Street, where then rewarded with huge tax cuts! The entire world is going Anti-Dubya, with the exception of a few pitiful toadies! And, the US is neck deep in an expensive quagmire in Iraq that seems to have no good solution!
YET, THE PUNDITACRACY STILL SAYS THE BUBBA SOUTH IS IN THE BACK
POCKET OF THE REPULBICAN PARTY!
WHY? WELL, BECAUSE BUBBA SOUTHERNERS WON'T VOTE FOR A PARTY THAT HAS
NEGROES AND GAYS IN IT! Hmmmmm.....?
But, I'm not so sure that Bubba is as stupid as Dubya!
Or rather, as stupid as Dubya's handlers think he is! Or, whatever!
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE PUNDITS ARE UNDER-ESTIMATING DUBYA'S
SERIOUS "BUBBA PROBLEM" IN THE SOUTH!
BUBBA RESPONDS TO ECONOMIC ISSUES FIRST, JUST LIKE EVERYONE ELSE!
THEN, AND ONLY THEN, DOES HE MOVE TO "SOCIAL ISSUES."
SO BEWARE, IF DUBYA LOOSES HIS GRIP ON ONLY 3% TO 5% OF THE SOUTHERN
REPUBLICAN BUBBA VOTE?
KERRY WINS IN A LANDSLIDE!
Postscript: There is news that Dubya's first big political ad buy is
going to be in sporting and NASCAR venues. Interesting...... LISTEN
CLOSELY? Are those Booos, and cat calls coming from the cheap
seats? What say you, NASCAR DAD'S?
There's Red States and Blue States. And, the South is solid for the
Republicans.
But consider:
IS THE SOUTH REALLY IN THE POCKET OF THE REPUBLICANS THIS TIME?
THIS IS NOT 2000!
AND, A LOT HAS HAPPEN OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS THAT COULD CHANGE THE
CALCULUS OF "RED" AND "BLUE" THIS TIME.
For example, in 2000 the Bubble mentality was still alive and well;
so the only question facing voters then was:
DO YOU WANT THE SAME OLD, SAME OLD PROSPERITY; AS PER CLINTON-GORE?
OR, DO YOU WANT THAT PROSPERITY, ALONG WITH THE TAX CUTS PROMISED BY
DUBYA!
Remember, back then, we were debating:
WHAT TO DO WITH THAT BIG NASTY SURPLUS! Remember, Alan was going to
have to start investing US Treasury Funds on E-Bay!
TO USE THE NASTY SURPLUS IN WASHINGTON, OR, "GIVE IT BACK" TO THOSE
NICE TAXPAYERS? THAT WAS THE REAL QUESTION.
REMEMBER? OR, HAVE YOU FORGOTTEN THAT MINOR DETAIL ALREADY?
Then, of course, there was the "blow job" and the "dress" still fresh
in the public mind;
And maybe, a sense that eight years of one party was enough, no
matter how prosperous it was.
Besides Greenspan was in charge of the prosperity stuff! Right?
SO, WHAT THE HELL! LET'S HAVE THE TAX CUTS! AND, THE CLINTON
PROSPERITY! WHY NOT, DAMN IT! WE DESERVE IT!
WELL, THAT WAS THEN. AND THIS IS NOW!
NOW:
The surplus is long gone! Now its deficits out the Wazoo, forever! The "blow job" is in the history books! The WTC was destroyed, while Dubya tried to "sleep" though the middle east crisis! The markets crashed, then recovered because of unsustainable 1% interest rates! Jobs have disappeared for the first time since Hoover! The Rich, who LOOTED Wall Street, where then rewarded with huge tax cuts! The entire world is going Anti-Dubya, with the exception of a few pitiful toadies! And, the US is neck deep in an expensive quagmire in Iraq that seems to have no good solution!
YET, THE PUNDITACRACY STILL SAYS THE BUBBA SOUTH IS IN THE BACK
POCKET OF THE REPULBICAN PARTY!
WHY? WELL, BECAUSE BUBBA SOUTHERNERS WON'T VOTE FOR A PARTY THAT HAS
NEGROES AND GAYS IN IT! Hmmmmm.....?
But, I'm not so sure that Bubba is as stupid as Dubya!
Or rather, as stupid as Dubya's handlers think he is! Or, whatever!
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE PUNDITS ARE UNDER-ESTIMATING DUBYA'S
SERIOUS "BUBBA PROBLEM" IN THE SOUTH!
BUBBA RESPONDS TO ECONOMIC ISSUES FIRST, JUST LIKE EVERYONE ELSE!
THEN, AND ONLY THEN, DOES HE MOVE TO "SOCIAL ISSUES."
SO BEWARE, IF DUBYA LOOSES HIS GRIP ON ONLY 3% TO 5% OF THE SOUTHERN
REPUBLICAN BUBBA VOTE?
KERRY WINS IN A LANDSLIDE!
Postscript: There is news that Dubya's first big political ad buy is
going to be in sporting and NASCAR venues. Interesting...... LISTEN
CLOSELY? Are those Booos, and cat calls coming from the cheap
seats? What say you, NASCAR DAD'S?
JOBS OR CRAFTS
It's no secret that there is much discontent in the labor markets.
But is it just fear of unemployment? Or, the loss of health care?
CONSIDER:
A HUGE PERCENTAGE OF EMPLOYED PERSONS HATE THEIR JOBS! WHY?
Perhaps, it's because we have lost the sense of CRAFT IN THE
WORKPLACE.
These days only a select few are allowed to actually "create"
anything. All others are merely "task doers." These people
do "jobs" that essentially are devoid of all meaning. These are
the "Cubicle People!"
We have set up intellectual assembly lines in the white collar world,
not just in the ever dying blue collar sector.
It seems that today jobs are hedious things! Devoid of all meaning.
The only "satisfaction" that many get from their "jobs" is pay and
health care coverage, if any.
And, perhaps the secret joy of sabotaging things, and not getting
caught--like some new era cyber-Luddites.
The Cult of the CEO has drained all rewards of work to the very top
of the "food chain."
Everyone else is expendable or redundant, and they act accordingly.
WHEN THE "MACHINE AGE" REALLY STARTED TO KICK IN, IN THE PERIOD FROM
1870 TO 1920 THERE WAS A MOVEMENT TO "BRING HUMANITY" BACK INTO THE
PRODUCTION PROCESSES.
IT WAS CALLED THE "ARTS AND CRAFTS MOVEMENT." IN ENGLAND, WILLIAM
MORRIS AND CO. WHERE THE PRIME ADVOCATES.
IN THE US, ELBERT HUBBERT AND THE ROYCROFTERS, AND THE BROTHERS
STICKLEY WERE ALSO PROPOSING A RETURN OF CRAFT INTO THE WORKPLACE.
ONLY WITH THE BAUHAUS IN GERMANY DID CRAFT, AND THE MACHINE AGE
BECOME RECONCILED INTO THE MODERNISM THAT WAS TO BE THE 20TH CENTURY.
It's possible that the COMPUTER AGE has drained some of the sense
of "craft" out of the current workplace, (as well as the push for
EVER cheaper labor).
TODAY, WE ARE ALL COGS IN THE "PRODUCTIVITY MACHINE" OF GREENSPAN AND
WALL STREET.
EVERYONE IS EXPENDABLE. EVERYONE IS JUST A NUMBER. WE DO NOT HAVE
ANY ECONOMY THAT SAYS: PEOPLE MATTER! EVERYTHING AND EVERYONE IS
TREATED AS A "MEANS" TO AN "END." THE BOTTOM LINE! PRODUCTIVITY!
MORE CEO OPTIONS!
Perhaps, this is the real reason for the unrest in the labor sector.
This over-arching sense that things are grossly UNFAIR!
PERHAPS, ONLY AFTER WE HAVE A NEW ARTS AND CRAFTS MOVEMENT FOR THE
COMPUTER AGE;
WILL WE BE ABLE TO HAVE THE SYNTHESIS OF A "NEW BAUHAUS;"
THAT WILL RECONCILE THE CURRENT LABOR CONFUSION INTO A GENUINE 21st
CENTURY MODERNISM?
But is it just fear of unemployment? Or, the loss of health care?
CONSIDER:
A HUGE PERCENTAGE OF EMPLOYED PERSONS HATE THEIR JOBS! WHY?
Perhaps, it's because we have lost the sense of CRAFT IN THE
WORKPLACE.
These days only a select few are allowed to actually "create"
anything. All others are merely "task doers." These people
do "jobs" that essentially are devoid of all meaning. These are
the "Cubicle People!"
We have set up intellectual assembly lines in the white collar world,
not just in the ever dying blue collar sector.
It seems that today jobs are hedious things! Devoid of all meaning.
The only "satisfaction" that many get from their "jobs" is pay and
health care coverage, if any.
And, perhaps the secret joy of sabotaging things, and not getting
caught--like some new era cyber-Luddites.
The Cult of the CEO has drained all rewards of work to the very top
of the "food chain."
Everyone else is expendable or redundant, and they act accordingly.
WHEN THE "MACHINE AGE" REALLY STARTED TO KICK IN, IN THE PERIOD FROM
1870 TO 1920 THERE WAS A MOVEMENT TO "BRING HUMANITY" BACK INTO THE
PRODUCTION PROCESSES.
IT WAS CALLED THE "ARTS AND CRAFTS MOVEMENT." IN ENGLAND, WILLIAM
MORRIS AND CO. WHERE THE PRIME ADVOCATES.
IN THE US, ELBERT HUBBERT AND THE ROYCROFTERS, AND THE BROTHERS
STICKLEY WERE ALSO PROPOSING A RETURN OF CRAFT INTO THE WORKPLACE.
ONLY WITH THE BAUHAUS IN GERMANY DID CRAFT, AND THE MACHINE AGE
BECOME RECONCILED INTO THE MODERNISM THAT WAS TO BE THE 20TH CENTURY.
It's possible that the COMPUTER AGE has drained some of the sense
of "craft" out of the current workplace, (as well as the push for
EVER cheaper labor).
TODAY, WE ARE ALL COGS IN THE "PRODUCTIVITY MACHINE" OF GREENSPAN AND
WALL STREET.
EVERYONE IS EXPENDABLE. EVERYONE IS JUST A NUMBER. WE DO NOT HAVE
ANY ECONOMY THAT SAYS: PEOPLE MATTER! EVERYTHING AND EVERYONE IS
TREATED AS A "MEANS" TO AN "END." THE BOTTOM LINE! PRODUCTIVITY!
MORE CEO OPTIONS!
Perhaps, this is the real reason for the unrest in the labor sector.
This over-arching sense that things are grossly UNFAIR!
PERHAPS, ONLY AFTER WE HAVE A NEW ARTS AND CRAFTS MOVEMENT FOR THE
COMPUTER AGE;
WILL WE BE ABLE TO HAVE THE SYNTHESIS OF A "NEW BAUHAUS;"
THAT WILL RECONCILE THE CURRENT LABOR CONFUSION INTO A GENUINE 21st
CENTURY MODERNISM?
Friday, February 27, 2004
J.C. SMACKDOWN! WHO NEEDS THIS?
I have not seen "The Passion" and I probably won't!
I'm perfectly content to read the numerous reviews and comments of
others.
Besides, I'm afraid the person sitting next to me will
start "speaking in tongues." And I HATE when people talk during the
movie!
This movie has been described as a RELIGIOUS SLASHER FILM.
OR, A SUNDAY SCHOOL "SMACKDOWN!"
But, parents had better leave the kids home with a tape of the Super
Bowl half-time show! It's less shocking.
Mostly, I'm just culturally embarassed by this movie. Would the
Buddists ever make a movie like this? Of course not!
What kind of religion glorys in violence and pain and suffering?
THANK GOD I'M AN AGNOSTIC AND ALWAYS HAVE BEEN!
The early years of this century have been described as another GREAT
AWAKENING of religious furvor. But I'll take a rain check thanks.
The JUDEO-CHRISTIAN-ISLAMIC religions rely too much on THE VENGENCE
OF GOD! THEY ARE "PATERNALISTIC" RELIGIONS WHERE PAIN AND PUNISHMENT
ARE THE NORM!
Eastern religion tends toward unity and harmony and the "oneness" of
all things. In the East the world is essentially a good place.
And, suffering and pain come from straying too from this "Middle
Way" of harmony. Or, from going against the "harmony" that is the
normal state of things. These Religions are sometimes
called "maternalistic."
The Eastern religious tradition does not see man as "evil," there is
no "orignial sin" that condenms a person from birth!
In the east to be "evil" is to have strayed too far off the normal
path---perhaps desires and wants have blinded these "lost" ones?
IF "THE PASSION" IS WHAT THE JUDEO-CHRISTIAN-ISLAMIC TRADITION IS ALL
ABOUT, I'M GLAD I'M AN AGNOSTIC!
AND I KNOW ONE THING FOR SURE. GOD'S ON MY SIDE!
I'm perfectly content to read the numerous reviews and comments of
others.
Besides, I'm afraid the person sitting next to me will
start "speaking in tongues." And I HATE when people talk during the
movie!
This movie has been described as a RELIGIOUS SLASHER FILM.
OR, A SUNDAY SCHOOL "SMACKDOWN!"
But, parents had better leave the kids home with a tape of the Super
Bowl half-time show! It's less shocking.
Mostly, I'm just culturally embarassed by this movie. Would the
Buddists ever make a movie like this? Of course not!
What kind of religion glorys in violence and pain and suffering?
THANK GOD I'M AN AGNOSTIC AND ALWAYS HAVE BEEN!
The early years of this century have been described as another GREAT
AWAKENING of religious furvor. But I'll take a rain check thanks.
The JUDEO-CHRISTIAN-ISLAMIC religions rely too much on THE VENGENCE
OF GOD! THEY ARE "PATERNALISTIC" RELIGIONS WHERE PAIN AND PUNISHMENT
ARE THE NORM!
Eastern religion tends toward unity and harmony and the "oneness" of
all things. In the East the world is essentially a good place.
And, suffering and pain come from straying too from this "Middle
Way" of harmony. Or, from going against the "harmony" that is the
normal state of things. These Religions are sometimes
called "maternalistic."
The Eastern religious tradition does not see man as "evil," there is
no "orignial sin" that condenms a person from birth!
In the east to be "evil" is to have strayed too far off the normal
path---perhaps desires and wants have blinded these "lost" ones?
IF "THE PASSION" IS WHAT THE JUDEO-CHRISTIAN-ISLAMIC TRADITION IS ALL
ABOUT, I'M GLAD I'M AN AGNOSTIC!
AND I KNOW ONE THING FOR SURE. GOD'S ON MY SIDE!
KRUGMAN, FRIEDMAN AND DOWD
Of all the NYT columnists Krugman, Friedman and Dowd are the ones I
always read, FIRST.
But lately, Tom Friedman's column has changed. He seems conflicted,
perhaps he wants to please too much. He seems like a child in a
dysfunctional family. Trying always to play it both ways.
I realize that Friedman is influenced by the large Jewish population
in the New York area, and Friedman is, in truth, Pro-Israel and
always has been.
But, still, Friedman's sad attempts to "justify" Dubya's Disaster in
Iraq, are annoying.
Worse yet, Friedman's LOVE OF INDIA makes me wonder why he just
doesn't move there! Yesterday's column attempting to "white wash"
and spin the migration of AMERICAN JOBS to the sub-continent, was,
well, intellectually "thin."
The notion that moving the American "back office" to India is OK,
because they use Dell Computers and drink Coke is nonsense.
First of all, most of that "American Hardware" is probably made in
China!
Finally, Friedman says that Indians are now doing American Cartoons
too! But that's OK because the voice overs are being done in LA! Oh
Pleaseeee.....!
LATELY FRIEDMAN HAS BEEN MAKING ABOUT AS MUCH SENSE AS SAFIRE!
DOWD'S ATTACKS ON DUBYA & CHUMS ARE CLASSICS! AT LEAST SOMEBODY ON
THE NYT OP-ED PAGE HASN'T "SOLD OUT!" A JOY TO READ. ALWAYS.
KRUGMAN'S COLUMN TODAY PRETTY MUCH REPEATS THE "GLOOM AND DOOM"
DOCTRINE ON WHERE THE US ECONOMY HAS TO GO TO SURVIVE.
WE NEED A NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PROGRAM LIKE EVERYONE ELSE HAS.
AND A BETTER SOCIAL SAFETY NET FOR THOSE IMPACTED BY "FREE TRADE,"
WHICH IS NOW A CODE WORD FOR "CHEAP LABOR" APPARENTLY.
I AGREE WITH KRUGMAN THAT KERRY HAS TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PROMISE
ON JOBS. (But I said that here WEEKS ago!) So........?
PERHAPS THE HISTORICAL ROLE OF SOON TO BE PRESIDENT KERRY WILL BE TO
RE-ESTABLISH THE SOCIAL SAFTEY NET IN AMERICA, RAISE TAXES ON THOSE
WHO BENEFIT MOST FROM THE "CURRENT SYSTEM," AND THEREBY SAVE
PRESENT "FREE TRADE" SYSTEM FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND GLOBAL CAPITAL?
And, fortunately, that's all "doable." No Revolution Required!
always read, FIRST.
But lately, Tom Friedman's column has changed. He seems conflicted,
perhaps he wants to please too much. He seems like a child in a
dysfunctional family. Trying always to play it both ways.
I realize that Friedman is influenced by the large Jewish population
in the New York area, and Friedman is, in truth, Pro-Israel and
always has been.
But, still, Friedman's sad attempts to "justify" Dubya's Disaster in
Iraq, are annoying.
Worse yet, Friedman's LOVE OF INDIA makes me wonder why he just
doesn't move there! Yesterday's column attempting to "white wash"
and spin the migration of AMERICAN JOBS to the sub-continent, was,
well, intellectually "thin."
The notion that moving the American "back office" to India is OK,
because they use Dell Computers and drink Coke is nonsense.
First of all, most of that "American Hardware" is probably made in
China!
Finally, Friedman says that Indians are now doing American Cartoons
too! But that's OK because the voice overs are being done in LA! Oh
Pleaseeee.....!
LATELY FRIEDMAN HAS BEEN MAKING ABOUT AS MUCH SENSE AS SAFIRE!
DOWD'S ATTACKS ON DUBYA & CHUMS ARE CLASSICS! AT LEAST SOMEBODY ON
THE NYT OP-ED PAGE HASN'T "SOLD OUT!" A JOY TO READ. ALWAYS.
KRUGMAN'S COLUMN TODAY PRETTY MUCH REPEATS THE "GLOOM AND DOOM"
DOCTRINE ON WHERE THE US ECONOMY HAS TO GO TO SURVIVE.
WE NEED A NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PROGRAM LIKE EVERYONE ELSE HAS.
AND A BETTER SOCIAL SAFETY NET FOR THOSE IMPACTED BY "FREE TRADE,"
WHICH IS NOW A CODE WORD FOR "CHEAP LABOR" APPARENTLY.
I AGREE WITH KRUGMAN THAT KERRY HAS TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PROMISE
ON JOBS. (But I said that here WEEKS ago!) So........?
PERHAPS THE HISTORICAL ROLE OF SOON TO BE PRESIDENT KERRY WILL BE TO
RE-ESTABLISH THE SOCIAL SAFTEY NET IN AMERICA, RAISE TAXES ON THOSE
WHO BENEFIT MOST FROM THE "CURRENT SYSTEM," AND THEREBY SAVE
PRESENT "FREE TRADE" SYSTEM FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY AND GLOBAL CAPITAL?
And, fortunately, that's all "doable." No Revolution Required!
Thursday, February 26, 2004
JOBLESS RECOVERY, THEN AND NOW
This isn't the first JOB-LESS RECOVERY.
We had one in the early 90's, and yes, back then I was among the
gloom and doomers who said:
THIS IS THE BIG ONE! JOBS WILL NEVER COME BACK!
Then came the amazing computer boom, and the Internet WONDER YEARS,
and all was seemingly well.
The Nervous Nellies were proven wrong, again.
BUT TODAY, IT BEHOOVES THOSE WHO EXPECT JOBS TO RETURN, DEUS EX
MACHINA, YET AGAIN, TO AT LEAST, TELL US WHERE THESE JOBS WILL
COME FROM. WE NEED AT LEAST A "THEORY."
Back in the 1990's, new computers, software, Y2K, sundry upgrades of
various kinds, and finally the Internet Bubble created A MAGIC MOMENT
for the US economy.
It was really a once in a lifetime experience.
What with the Internet and the computer and all;
It was all happening at once,....and those barefoot boy billionaires
showing their toes on national magazine covers.
It was great!
BUT, WILL SOMETHING LIKE THAT HAPPEN AGAIN? IS IT POSSBILE?
CAN WE HOPE FOR A "TWICE IN A LIFETIME" JOBS AND ECONOMIC MIRACLE?
PLEASE ADMIT, THAT 1994 AND 2004 ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT ERAS.
Here's the problem: we are really truly ON THE EDGE HERE.
AND, FAILURE NOW IS SIMPLY NOT AN OPTION.......
If the jobs miracle does not occur, THIS TIME, then what?
All of the economic dials are in the "red zone" now.
Disequilibriums (disequilibria, for Latin speakers) ABOUND!
These disequilibria are so serious that if a failure occurs the
consequences could be catastrophic.
Indeed, Greenspan, this week, was talking about the SYSTEMIC RISK
caused by Fanny and Freddie.
WHEN THE CENTRAL BANK STARTS SERIOUSLY TALKING ABOUT SYSTEMIC RISK!
REASONABLE PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE NOTICE.
Many Americans seem to think that they are living in a Hollywood
movie.
If things get tough: CALL IN THE TERMINATOR!
WELL, THIS IS NOT A MOVIE! BAD THINGS CAN HAPPEN.
VERY, VERY BAD THINGS CAN HAPPEN.
And, quite frankly, I have doubts that the current leadership is up
to the serious tasks ahead.
MAYBE US "NERVOUS NELLIES" WILL BE WRONG AGAIN!
LET'S HOPE SO.........
BUT, JUST MAYBE, WE SHOULD BE THINKING, AT LEAST A BIT, ABOUT "PLAN
B."
YOU KNOW, JUST IN CASE?
We had one in the early 90's, and yes, back then I was among the
gloom and doomers who said:
THIS IS THE BIG ONE! JOBS WILL NEVER COME BACK!
Then came the amazing computer boom, and the Internet WONDER YEARS,
and all was seemingly well.
The Nervous Nellies were proven wrong, again.
BUT TODAY, IT BEHOOVES THOSE WHO EXPECT JOBS TO RETURN, DEUS EX
MACHINA, YET AGAIN, TO AT LEAST, TELL US WHERE THESE JOBS WILL
COME FROM. WE NEED AT LEAST A "THEORY."
Back in the 1990's, new computers, software, Y2K, sundry upgrades of
various kinds, and finally the Internet Bubble created A MAGIC MOMENT
for the US economy.
It was really a once in a lifetime experience.
What with the Internet and the computer and all;
It was all happening at once,....and those barefoot boy billionaires
showing their toes on national magazine covers.
It was great!
BUT, WILL SOMETHING LIKE THAT HAPPEN AGAIN? IS IT POSSBILE?
CAN WE HOPE FOR A "TWICE IN A LIFETIME" JOBS AND ECONOMIC MIRACLE?
PLEASE ADMIT, THAT 1994 AND 2004 ARE TOTALLY DIFFERENT ERAS.
Here's the problem: we are really truly ON THE EDGE HERE.
AND, FAILURE NOW IS SIMPLY NOT AN OPTION.......
If the jobs miracle does not occur, THIS TIME, then what?
All of the economic dials are in the "red zone" now.
Disequilibriums (disequilibria, for Latin speakers) ABOUND!
These disequilibria are so serious that if a failure occurs the
consequences could be catastrophic.
Indeed, Greenspan, this week, was talking about the SYSTEMIC RISK
caused by Fanny and Freddie.
WHEN THE CENTRAL BANK STARTS SERIOUSLY TALKING ABOUT SYSTEMIC RISK!
REASONABLE PEOPLE SHOULD TAKE NOTICE.
Many Americans seem to think that they are living in a Hollywood
movie.
If things get tough: CALL IN THE TERMINATOR!
WELL, THIS IS NOT A MOVIE! BAD THINGS CAN HAPPEN.
VERY, VERY BAD THINGS CAN HAPPEN.
And, quite frankly, I have doubts that the current leadership is up
to the serious tasks ahead.
MAYBE US "NERVOUS NELLIES" WILL BE WRONG AGAIN!
LET'S HOPE SO.........
BUT, JUST MAYBE, WE SHOULD BE THINKING, AT LEAST A BIT, ABOUT "PLAN
B."
YOU KNOW, JUST IN CASE?
EURO 135, A LINE IN THE SAND?
Currency traders had better bring a good book to work for the next few months.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A "LINE IN THE SAND" AT 135 ON THE EURO.
That's still a big range from 125 to 135 but I seriously doubt that 135 will be crossed anytime soon. Absent some huge catastrophe in the US.
All the yada-yada today about the ECB joining the Fed in the dubious ONE PERCENT CLUB, is just nonsense.
It seems that the market has a strange way of translating someones "thoughts" about something to an odd "reality." Go figure!
With the currency markets pulsating quietly, I doubt that the ECB will do anything stupid in March.
That said, the FEBRUARY JOBS DATA could move the market in the first week of March.
WE ARE AT THE POINT NOW WHERE, ONLY UPWARD JOB NUMBERS ARE EVEN REMOTELY ACCEPTABLE.
ANY JOB LOSSES WOULD "FREEZE" GREENSPAN INTO ONE PERCENT RATES ALMOST FOREVER! .........OR MR G's RETIREMENT IN 2006 WHICHEVER COMES FIRST.
So, happy day's aren't here again.....still, lines in the sand are great fun to watch! Aren't they?
And, can gold stay "frozen" even while oil and gasoline continue to rise? And, if gold does go up, doesn't that ipso facto move the dollar down?
Well,....I guess you can always draw another "line in the sand" somewhere else...............and another,.......and another..........
Hmmmm.....sooner are later we are going to run out of "beach." Ya suppose?
IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A "LINE IN THE SAND" AT 135 ON THE EURO.
That's still a big range from 125 to 135 but I seriously doubt that 135 will be crossed anytime soon. Absent some huge catastrophe in the US.
All the yada-yada today about the ECB joining the Fed in the dubious ONE PERCENT CLUB, is just nonsense.
It seems that the market has a strange way of translating someones "thoughts" about something to an odd "reality." Go figure!
With the currency markets pulsating quietly, I doubt that the ECB will do anything stupid in March.
That said, the FEBRUARY JOBS DATA could move the market in the first week of March.
WE ARE AT THE POINT NOW WHERE, ONLY UPWARD JOB NUMBERS ARE EVEN REMOTELY ACCEPTABLE.
ANY JOB LOSSES WOULD "FREEZE" GREENSPAN INTO ONE PERCENT RATES ALMOST FOREVER! .........OR MR G's RETIREMENT IN 2006 WHICHEVER COMES FIRST.
So, happy day's aren't here again.....still, lines in the sand are great fun to watch! Aren't they?
And, can gold stay "frozen" even while oil and gasoline continue to rise? And, if gold does go up, doesn't that ipso facto move the dollar down?
Well,....I guess you can always draw another "line in the sand" somewhere else...............and another,.......and another..........
Hmmmm.....sooner are later we are going to run out of "beach." Ya suppose?
THE RICH WILL SAVE US, OR PAY TO PLAY?
The full extent of Greenspan's intellectual bankruptcy was on display
yesterday and today with his ridiculous comments about cutting social
security and medicare.
While the national media was merciful, the local papers are all over
Greenspan this morning!
AND, ALAS, POOR DUBYA, HE'S REALLY LOOKING LIKE A LOSER NOW!
It seems that the entire problem boils down to whether or not you
believe that: THE RICH WILL SAVE US!
Greenspan has run the US economy for 20 plus years based on the
notion that the "rich" are the productive class. And, the workers,
ie the "consuming class" are expendable.
SO FAR THE RICH HAVE MERELY "LOOTED" THE ECONOMY AND MOVED ANYTHING
AND EVERYTHING THEY COULD OFF-SHORE, OUT OF THE REACH OF THE US LAWS
AND COURT WRITS.
CAN THE RICH SAVE US? OR, SHOULD WE, AMERICANS, ADOPT A "PAY TO
PLAY" APPROACH TO THE ECONOMY?
CLEARLY, THOSE WHO BENEFIT MOST SHOULD PAY THE MOST TO SUPPORT THE
VERY SYSTEM THAT IN TURN SUPPORTS THEM.
The economy is not a one way street, where the rich merely grab and
run, and everyone else suffers for it. On virtually any scale the
distribution of wealth is dangerously skewed in favor of the rich.
Perhaps in a medievel economy that wouldn't matter, but in a modern
consumer driven economy it matters a lot.
THE BEST MODEL FOR THE US NOW IS CHINA!
Today's WSJ reports that American companies are not allowed to "play"
in the China market UNLESS THEY DIVULGE ALL OF THEIR TECHNOLOGY TO
THEIR CHINESE COUNTERPARTS!
AND THE STUPID AMERICAN CEOs ARE DOING JUST THAT!
Two hundred years from now when none of this really matters anymore,
future historians will be amazed at the voluntary DIFUSION OF
TECHNOLOGY that the US allowed China to get;
FOR ALMOST NOTHING IN RETURN!
CHINA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO PLAY WITHOUT PAYING FOR ANYTHING IT GETS
FROM THE US!
That, gentle reader, is the real tragedy Americans face today.
STUPIDITY AND HUBRIS AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS HAVE BANKRUPTED THE US
ECONOMY. AND, ONLY NOW ARE THE REAL CONSEQUENCES BEING FELT.
The solution?
Well, there is no easy answer, but first STOP THE BLEEDING!
THE AMERICAN ECONOMY SHOULD BE RUN "AS IF" AMERICANS REALLY MATTERED.
TAXES ON THE RICH AND ON CORPORATIONS MUST BE RAISED VERY CONSIDERABLY.
AND, HIGH TARIFFS IMPOSED ON THOSE WHO SEEK THE GAIN ACCESS TO THE US ECONOMY, WITH CHEAP GOODS, FROM EVEN CHEAPER LABOR.
AND, I MIGHT NOTE THAT TARIFF REVENUE WOULD DO WONDERS IN PAYING FOR NATIONAL HEALTH CARE, AND OTHER NEEDED "FAIRNESS" PROGRAMS!
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE FOR ALL AMERICANS WILL RELIEVE DOMESTIC AMERICAN
COMPANIES OF AN AWSOME BURDEN, THAT FEW GLOBAL COMPETITORS HAVE TO
BEAR SINGLE HANDEDLY.
ENVIROMENTAL AND "LIVING WAGE" LAWS SHOULD BE REQUIRED OF ALL
FOREIGNERS WHO WANT ACCESS TO US MARKETS.
IN SHORT:
DON'T DISCRIMINATE! LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD SO THAT EVERYONE CAN
COMPETE "AS IF" PEOPLE MATTERED MORE THAN JUST CHEAP GOODS!
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE FIRST WORLD ECONOMIES CAN NOT COMPETE ON
PRICE WITH THE BRUTAL THIRD WORLD ECONOMIES. THAT IS THE REAL CAUSE
OF THE PROBLEM ISN'T IT?
WAKE UP AMERICA! FREE TRADE IS KILLING YOU! A RETURN TO SANE AND BALANCED ECONOMICS IS INEVITABLE.
DEMAND FAIR TRADE NOW! IT'S NEVER TOO LATE TO FACE REALITY!
yesterday and today with his ridiculous comments about cutting social
security and medicare.
While the national media was merciful, the local papers are all over
Greenspan this morning!
AND, ALAS, POOR DUBYA, HE'S REALLY LOOKING LIKE A LOSER NOW!
It seems that the entire problem boils down to whether or not you
believe that: THE RICH WILL SAVE US!
Greenspan has run the US economy for 20 plus years based on the
notion that the "rich" are the productive class. And, the workers,
ie the "consuming class" are expendable.
SO FAR THE RICH HAVE MERELY "LOOTED" THE ECONOMY AND MOVED ANYTHING
AND EVERYTHING THEY COULD OFF-SHORE, OUT OF THE REACH OF THE US LAWS
AND COURT WRITS.
CAN THE RICH SAVE US? OR, SHOULD WE, AMERICANS, ADOPT A "PAY TO
PLAY" APPROACH TO THE ECONOMY?
CLEARLY, THOSE WHO BENEFIT MOST SHOULD PAY THE MOST TO SUPPORT THE
VERY SYSTEM THAT IN TURN SUPPORTS THEM.
The economy is not a one way street, where the rich merely grab and
run, and everyone else suffers for it. On virtually any scale the
distribution of wealth is dangerously skewed in favor of the rich.
Perhaps in a medievel economy that wouldn't matter, but in a modern
consumer driven economy it matters a lot.
THE BEST MODEL FOR THE US NOW IS CHINA!
Today's WSJ reports that American companies are not allowed to "play"
in the China market UNLESS THEY DIVULGE ALL OF THEIR TECHNOLOGY TO
THEIR CHINESE COUNTERPARTS!
AND THE STUPID AMERICAN CEOs ARE DOING JUST THAT!
Two hundred years from now when none of this really matters anymore,
future historians will be amazed at the voluntary DIFUSION OF
TECHNOLOGY that the US allowed China to get;
FOR ALMOST NOTHING IN RETURN!
CHINA HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO PLAY WITHOUT PAYING FOR ANYTHING IT GETS
FROM THE US!
That, gentle reader, is the real tragedy Americans face today.
STUPIDITY AND HUBRIS AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS HAVE BANKRUPTED THE US
ECONOMY. AND, ONLY NOW ARE THE REAL CONSEQUENCES BEING FELT.
The solution?
Well, there is no easy answer, but first STOP THE BLEEDING!
THE AMERICAN ECONOMY SHOULD BE RUN "AS IF" AMERICANS REALLY MATTERED.
TAXES ON THE RICH AND ON CORPORATIONS MUST BE RAISED VERY CONSIDERABLY.
AND, HIGH TARIFFS IMPOSED ON THOSE WHO SEEK THE GAIN ACCESS TO THE US ECONOMY, WITH CHEAP GOODS, FROM EVEN CHEAPER LABOR.
AND, I MIGHT NOTE THAT TARIFF REVENUE WOULD DO WONDERS IN PAYING FOR NATIONAL HEALTH CARE, AND OTHER NEEDED "FAIRNESS" PROGRAMS!
NATIONAL HEALTH CARE FOR ALL AMERICANS WILL RELIEVE DOMESTIC AMERICAN
COMPANIES OF AN AWSOME BURDEN, THAT FEW GLOBAL COMPETITORS HAVE TO
BEAR SINGLE HANDEDLY.
ENVIROMENTAL AND "LIVING WAGE" LAWS SHOULD BE REQUIRED OF ALL
FOREIGNERS WHO WANT ACCESS TO US MARKETS.
IN SHORT:
DON'T DISCRIMINATE! LEVEL THE PLAYING FIELD SO THAT EVERYONE CAN
COMPETE "AS IF" PEOPLE MATTERED MORE THAN JUST CHEAP GOODS!
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE FIRST WORLD ECONOMIES CAN NOT COMPETE ON
PRICE WITH THE BRUTAL THIRD WORLD ECONOMIES. THAT IS THE REAL CAUSE
OF THE PROBLEM ISN'T IT?
WAKE UP AMERICA! FREE TRADE IS KILLING YOU! A RETURN TO SANE AND BALANCED ECONOMICS IS INEVITABLE.
DEMAND FAIR TRADE NOW! IT'S NEVER TOO LATE TO FACE REALITY!
Wednesday, February 25, 2004
GREENSPAN TOUCHES THIRD RAIL!
Greenspan's call for cuts in Social Security and Medicare will likely
fall on deaf ears.
With corporations cutting back and moving off-shore, and with job
quality declining in the US; the need for more and greater social
spending is evident.
Greenspan, as always, seems to be trying to make the US safe for the
rich, and greedy Global Capital!
And, he has little or no compassion for those who are hurt by
the predations of RAMPANT GLOBAL CAPITALISM.
Indeed, Greenspan's notion that the social safey net should be
further cut, coming one day after he admitted that Freddie and Fanny
are becoming virtually the NEXT S&L CRISIS, is worrying.
GREENSPAN HAS RUN THE US ECONOMY FOR 20 YEARS, AS IF, ONLY THE RICH
MATTERED!
ONLY GLOBAL CAPITAL HAD THE EAR OF GREENSPAN'S FED, DURING THIS TIME OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DECLINE IN THE US.
True, some workers were allowed to take on more debt!
And, some were allowed to participate in the ASSET INFLATION AND THE BUBBLES, both in real estate and stocks and other assets of late.
BUT, THE LABOR MARKET HAS BEEN TRASHED DURING GREENSPAN'S TENURE AT THE FED.
AND NOW, WE SEE THE INEVITABLE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS BAD POLICY.
DUBYA IS A LAME DUCK, THAT BECOMES LAMER EVERYDAY!
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE JOBS MARKET WILL NOT RISE LIKE LAZARUS! NOT
THIS TIME.
THE INTERNET BUBBLE WAS A ONE-SHOT DEAL, AND FORTUITOUSLY BAILED MR G
OUT IN THE EARLY 90's. THAT'S OVER NOW.
ONLY A BARREN LANDSCAPE OF DEBT! UNEMPLOYMENT! AND BANKRUPTCY
LOOM!
AND, IF HIGHER INTEREST RATES DO COME?
THEY WILL COME LIKE A FORCE 5 HURRICANE THROUGH SOME THIRD
WORLD "SHANTY TOWN!" BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE US ECONOMY RESEMBLES.
The only viable solutions are TAX INCREASES ON THE RICH!
AND, A RENEWED SOCIAL SAFETY NET TO PROTECT THE RAVAGED AMERICAN
WORKING AND CONSUMING CLASSES!
ALAS, THE SAD AMERICAN "EMPIRE" OF WOLFIE, RUMMY AND DUBYA IS OVER.
WELCOME TO THE NEW ERA OF "EURO-SOCIALISM" IN AMERICA!
BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT IT WILL BE, IN THE END.
And anyone who doesn't like it, can just get on the next plane to HONG KONG! ASAP!
fall on deaf ears.
With corporations cutting back and moving off-shore, and with job
quality declining in the US; the need for more and greater social
spending is evident.
Greenspan, as always, seems to be trying to make the US safe for the
rich, and greedy Global Capital!
And, he has little or no compassion for those who are hurt by
the predations of RAMPANT GLOBAL CAPITALISM.
Indeed, Greenspan's notion that the social safey net should be
further cut, coming one day after he admitted that Freddie and Fanny
are becoming virtually the NEXT S&L CRISIS, is worrying.
GREENSPAN HAS RUN THE US ECONOMY FOR 20 YEARS, AS IF, ONLY THE RICH
MATTERED!
ONLY GLOBAL CAPITAL HAD THE EAR OF GREENSPAN'S FED, DURING THIS TIME OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DECLINE IN THE US.
True, some workers were allowed to take on more debt!
And, some were allowed to participate in the ASSET INFLATION AND THE BUBBLES, both in real estate and stocks and other assets of late.
BUT, THE LABOR MARKET HAS BEEN TRASHED DURING GREENSPAN'S TENURE AT THE FED.
AND NOW, WE SEE THE INEVITABLE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS BAD POLICY.
DUBYA IS A LAME DUCK, THAT BECOMES LAMER EVERYDAY!
EVERYONE KNOWS THAT THE JOBS MARKET WILL NOT RISE LIKE LAZARUS! NOT
THIS TIME.
THE INTERNET BUBBLE WAS A ONE-SHOT DEAL, AND FORTUITOUSLY BAILED MR G
OUT IN THE EARLY 90's. THAT'S OVER NOW.
ONLY A BARREN LANDSCAPE OF DEBT! UNEMPLOYMENT! AND BANKRUPTCY
LOOM!
AND, IF HIGHER INTEREST RATES DO COME?
THEY WILL COME LIKE A FORCE 5 HURRICANE THROUGH SOME THIRD
WORLD "SHANTY TOWN!" BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE US ECONOMY RESEMBLES.
The only viable solutions are TAX INCREASES ON THE RICH!
AND, A RENEWED SOCIAL SAFETY NET TO PROTECT THE RAVAGED AMERICAN
WORKING AND CONSUMING CLASSES!
ALAS, THE SAD AMERICAN "EMPIRE" OF WOLFIE, RUMMY AND DUBYA IS OVER.
WELCOME TO THE NEW ERA OF "EURO-SOCIALISM" IN AMERICA!
BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT IT WILL BE, IN THE END.
And anyone who doesn't like it, can just get on the next plane to HONG KONG! ASAP!
Tuesday, February 24, 2004
DUBYA AS LAME DUCK
My hunch is that the markets are going to start trading AS IF DUBYA
IS A LAME DUCK PRESIDENT.
Indeed, the rest of this year could be trading on anticipation of a
new government in Washington in 2005. And, frankly, I think that
would be a good bet.
DUBYA IS STARTING TO "LOSE IT" ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.
The plunge in consumer confidence today was only the start.
THE AMERICAN JOBS MARKET IS SICK! VERY SICK! AND PEOPLE ARE
STARTING TO REALIZE IT NOW.
Greenspan has twisted the economy and the markets into relying on ONE
PERCENT RATES FOREVER!
OR, A WEAKER DOLLAR FOREVER.....PUT ANOTHER WAY.
IN TRUTH, THE ENTIRE ECONOMY IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE 1970's
REDUX!
A UNPOPULAR AND EXPENSIVE WAR!
TROUBLE WITH OIL SUPPLIES!
DEFICITS OUT THE WAZOO!
AND A WEAK AND UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT IN THE WHITE HOUSE, WHO WILL
PROBABLY NOT WIN RE-ELECTION!
WE COULD BE SPENDING THE REST OF THIS YEAR, "AS IF" DUBYA IS A LAME
DUCK PRSIDENT.
Now to figure out how to trade on this information? Hmmmm.......?
IS A LAME DUCK PRESIDENT.
Indeed, the rest of this year could be trading on anticipation of a
new government in Washington in 2005. And, frankly, I think that
would be a good bet.
DUBYA IS STARTING TO "LOSE IT" ON MULTIPLE FRONTS.
The plunge in consumer confidence today was only the start.
THE AMERICAN JOBS MARKET IS SICK! VERY SICK! AND PEOPLE ARE
STARTING TO REALIZE IT NOW.
Greenspan has twisted the economy and the markets into relying on ONE
PERCENT RATES FOREVER!
OR, A WEAKER DOLLAR FOREVER.....PUT ANOTHER WAY.
IN TRUTH, THE ENTIRE ECONOMY IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE 1970's
REDUX!
A UNPOPULAR AND EXPENSIVE WAR!
TROUBLE WITH OIL SUPPLIES!
DEFICITS OUT THE WAZOO!
AND A WEAK AND UNPOPULAR PRESIDENT IN THE WHITE HOUSE, WHO WILL
PROBABLY NOT WIN RE-ELECTION!
WE COULD BE SPENDING THE REST OF THIS YEAR, "AS IF" DUBYA IS A LAME
DUCK PRSIDENT.
Now to figure out how to trade on this information? Hmmmm.......?
Sunday, February 22, 2004
NADER FACTOR
I wonder if Nader's candidacy will be funded by rich Republicans!
LOL! It should be!
As "evil" as Nader's candidacy is among Democrats, Nader does make a
few good points.
First, Nader is only a factor in very very close elections.
The Democrats, alas, always seem to be forced to get a SUPER-MAJORITY
to win. It's tough but with Dubya's record it's DOABLE! And, when
your candidate, Gore, can't even carry his home state....well?
Second, Nader could appeal to the DEANIE BABIES! Dean supporters
would be a natural fit for Nader. These people are new to politics
and tend to be idealistic.
Third, Nader could pull the Democrats to the left, in much the same
way that Dean did before he dropped out of the race. But, damn, can
Kerry and Edward talk more "left" than they already are?
Still, Nader could REPLACE Dean as the NEW SPOKESMAN FOR THE LEFT.
The media willing of course.
Saddly, only actual "candidates" have their opinions on the "issues"
taken seriously by the media!
Everything else is just "color commentary" by "pundits."
Fourth, Nader, like Perot and Dean, has the amazing ability to SPEAK
THE TRUTH! And, the truth can be dangerous to the political class.
Unfortunately, there are still many naieve Americans who seek the
truth and believe in it. They don't know about the "code word" game
that's been adapted by the media and the political elite. These
people can be moved to vote for a third party.
Fifth, Nader could hurt the Republicans. Many EVANGELICALS are
disappointed by the hypocracy of Dubya and Chums. Many fiscal
conservatives may be squemish about voting for Dubya's Deficits.
And, many "off the grid" "home schooling" types could possibly move
from the Republicans to Nader.
In short;
Nader could appeal to some BUBBA REPUBLICANS WITH HIS POPULISM ON
JOBS, NAFTA, ENVIORMENTAL ISSUES, AND EXPANDED GOVERNMENT POWERS IN
THE PATRIOT ACT.
NET-NET I DON'T THINK NADER WILL SWING THIS ELECTION.
THIS ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED BY THE STATE OF PLAY IN IRAQ AND IN THE
US ECONOMY IN THE FALL OF 2004.
I wonder if Nader's candidacy will be funded by rich Republicans!
LOL! It should be!
As "evil" as Nader's candidacy is among Democrats, Nader does make a
few good points.
First, Nader is only a factor in very very close elections.
The Democrats, alas, always seem to be forced to get a SUPER-MAJORITY
to win. It's tough but with Dubya's record it's DOABLE! And, when
your candidate, Gore, can't even carry his home state....well?
Second, Nader could appeal to the DEANIE BABIES! Dean supporters
would be a natural fit for Nader. These people are new to politics
and tend to be idealistic.
Third, Nader could pull the Democrats to the left, in much the same
way that Dean did before he dropped out of the race. But, damn, can
Kerry and Edward talk more "left" than they already are?
Still, Nader could REPLACE Dean as the NEW SPOKESMAN FOR THE LEFT.
The media willing of course.
Saddly, only actual "candidates" have their opinions on the "issues"
taken seriously by the media!
Everything else is just "color commentary" by "pundits."
Fourth, Nader, like Perot and Dean, has the amazing ability to SPEAK
THE TRUTH! And, the truth can be dangerous to the political class.
Unfortunately, there are still many naieve Americans who seek the
truth and believe in it. They don't know about the "code word" game
that's been adapted by the media and the political elite. These
people can be moved to vote for a third party.
Fifth, Nader could hurt the Republicans. Many EVANGELICALS are
disappointed by the hypocracy of Dubya and Chums. Many fiscal
conservatives may be squemish about voting for Dubya's Deficits.
And, many "off the grid" "home schooling" types could possibly move
from the Republicans to Nader.
In short;
Nader could appeal to some BUBBA REPUBLICANS WITH HIS POPULISM ON
JOBS, NAFTA, ENVIORMENTAL ISSUES, AND EXPANDED GOVERNMENT POWERS IN
THE PATRIOT ACT.
NET-NET I DON'T THINK NADER WILL SWING THIS ELECTION.
THIS ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED BY THE STATE OF PLAY IN IRAQ AND IN THE
US ECONOMY IN THE FALL OF 2004.
LOL! It should be!
As "evil" as Nader's candidacy is among Democrats, Nader does make a
few good points.
First, Nader is only a factor in very very close elections.
The Democrats, alas, always seem to be forced to get a SUPER-MAJORITY
to win. It's tough but with Dubya's record it's DOABLE! And, when
your candidate, Gore, can't even carry his home state....well?
Second, Nader could appeal to the DEANIE BABIES! Dean supporters
would be a natural fit for Nader. These people are new to politics
and tend to be idealistic.
Third, Nader could pull the Democrats to the left, in much the same
way that Dean did before he dropped out of the race. But, damn, can
Kerry and Edward talk more "left" than they already are?
Still, Nader could REPLACE Dean as the NEW SPOKESMAN FOR THE LEFT.
The media willing of course.
Saddly, only actual "candidates" have their opinions on the "issues"
taken seriously by the media!
Everything else is just "color commentary" by "pundits."
Fourth, Nader, like Perot and Dean, has the amazing ability to SPEAK
THE TRUTH! And, the truth can be dangerous to the political class.
Unfortunately, there are still many naieve Americans who seek the
truth and believe in it. They don't know about the "code word" game
that's been adapted by the media and the political elite. These
people can be moved to vote for a third party.
Fifth, Nader could hurt the Republicans. Many EVANGELICALS are
disappointed by the hypocracy of Dubya and Chums. Many fiscal
conservatives may be squemish about voting for Dubya's Deficits.
And, many "off the grid" "home schooling" types could possibly move
from the Republicans to Nader.
In short;
Nader could appeal to some BUBBA REPUBLICANS WITH HIS POPULISM ON
JOBS, NAFTA, ENVIORMENTAL ISSUES, AND EXPANDED GOVERNMENT POWERS IN
THE PATRIOT ACT.
NET-NET I DON'T THINK NADER WILL SWING THIS ELECTION.
THIS ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED BY THE STATE OF PLAY IN IRAQ AND IN THE
US ECONOMY IN THE FALL OF 2004.
I wonder if Nader's candidacy will be funded by rich Republicans!
LOL! It should be!
As "evil" as Nader's candidacy is among Democrats, Nader does make a
few good points.
First, Nader is only a factor in very very close elections.
The Democrats, alas, always seem to be forced to get a SUPER-MAJORITY
to win. It's tough but with Dubya's record it's DOABLE! And, when
your candidate, Gore, can't even carry his home state....well?
Second, Nader could appeal to the DEANIE BABIES! Dean supporters
would be a natural fit for Nader. These people are new to politics
and tend to be idealistic.
Third, Nader could pull the Democrats to the left, in much the same
way that Dean did before he dropped out of the race. But, damn, can
Kerry and Edward talk more "left" than they already are?
Still, Nader could REPLACE Dean as the NEW SPOKESMAN FOR THE LEFT.
The media willing of course.
Saddly, only actual "candidates" have their opinions on the "issues"
taken seriously by the media!
Everything else is just "color commentary" by "pundits."
Fourth, Nader, like Perot and Dean, has the amazing ability to SPEAK
THE TRUTH! And, the truth can be dangerous to the political class.
Unfortunately, there are still many naieve Americans who seek the
truth and believe in it. They don't know about the "code word" game
that's been adapted by the media and the political elite. These
people can be moved to vote for a third party.
Fifth, Nader could hurt the Republicans. Many EVANGELICALS are
disappointed by the hypocracy of Dubya and Chums. Many fiscal
conservatives may be squemish about voting for Dubya's Deficits.
And, many "off the grid" "home schooling" types could possibly move
from the Republicans to Nader.
In short;
Nader could appeal to some BUBBA REPUBLICANS WITH HIS POPULISM ON
JOBS, NAFTA, ENVIORMENTAL ISSUES, AND EXPANDED GOVERNMENT POWERS IN
THE PATRIOT ACT.
NET-NET I DON'T THINK NADER WILL SWING THIS ELECTION.
THIS ELECTION WILL BE DECIDED BY THE STATE OF PLAY IN IRAQ AND IN THE
US ECONOMY IN THE FALL OF 2004.
CORRECTION OVER-PREDICTED?
The "coming correction" has got to be one of the most OVER-PREDICTED we've seen in a long time.
My conclusion: IT WON'T HAPPEN!
The Dollar has been performing "miraculously" lately. And, as long as the Fed has a few miracles left, why should the market go down.
There is absolutely no sign that the Fed is going to raise rates anytime soon, and as long as the bond market is properly managed by the Fed and other central banks, that's A-OK.
Finally, mom and pop are piling back into stocks like nothing seen since the bubble! Mutual Fund inflows are at all time records for the last few months.
Wall Street never gets unpleasant when mom and pop are flocking in!
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE OVER ALL AVERAGES GO UP. PERHAPS SLOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE USED TO. BUT NOT DOWN. NOT NOW.....
MAYBE A CORRECTION IN MAY, OR EVEN LATE APRIL AFTER ALL THE PENSION MONEY IS IN.........BUT EVEN THEN;
THIS BULL MARKET CONTIUNES AS LONG AS RATES STAY AT 1%, THE BOND MARKET IS SUSTAINED, AND THE DOLLAR/EURO STAYS BELOW 135.
PUT ANOTHER WAY, ON THE SURFACE THE MARKET LOOKS OVER-DUE FOR A CORRECTION.
BUT, UNDER THE SURFACE, EVERYTHING POINTS TO CLEAR SAILING!
GREENSPAN IS WORKING HARD EVERYDAY TO MAKE THE WORLD SAFE FOR MORE MULTIPLE EXPANSION.
AND FOR THAT, I GUESS, WE SHOULD ALL BE THANKFUL.
My conclusion: IT WON'T HAPPEN!
The Dollar has been performing "miraculously" lately. And, as long as the Fed has a few miracles left, why should the market go down.
There is absolutely no sign that the Fed is going to raise rates anytime soon, and as long as the bond market is properly managed by the Fed and other central banks, that's A-OK.
Finally, mom and pop are piling back into stocks like nothing seen since the bubble! Mutual Fund inflows are at all time records for the last few months.
Wall Street never gets unpleasant when mom and pop are flocking in!
MY HUNCH IS THAT THE OVER ALL AVERAGES GO UP. PERHAPS SLOWER THAN WHAT WE ARE USED TO. BUT NOT DOWN. NOT NOW.....
MAYBE A CORRECTION IN MAY, OR EVEN LATE APRIL AFTER ALL THE PENSION MONEY IS IN.........BUT EVEN THEN;
THIS BULL MARKET CONTIUNES AS LONG AS RATES STAY AT 1%, THE BOND MARKET IS SUSTAINED, AND THE DOLLAR/EURO STAYS BELOW 135.
PUT ANOTHER WAY, ON THE SURFACE THE MARKET LOOKS OVER-DUE FOR A CORRECTION.
BUT, UNDER THE SURFACE, EVERYTHING POINTS TO CLEAR SAILING!
GREENSPAN IS WORKING HARD EVERYDAY TO MAKE THE WORLD SAFE FOR MORE MULTIPLE EXPANSION.
AND FOR THAT, I GUESS, WE SHOULD ALL BE THANKFUL.
Saturday, February 21, 2004
THE SECOND AMERICAN REVOLUTION!
The weekend FT essay/bookreview deals with the "consumer" origins of
the American Revolution.
It will be remembered that the FIRST AMERICAN REVOLUTION against
England was really ALL ABOUT TRADE!
England was forcing Americans to buy ONLY ENGLISH GOODS!
And, the American colonist/consumers bought a lot of them.
England then decided to raise a little revenue, and INCREASED TAXES
AND PRICES!
The rest is, as they say, HISTORY!
OK, FAST FORWARD TO TODAY:
Presently, Americans are getting the short end of the trade stick
yet AGAIN!
BUT, THIS TIME IT'S NOT ENGLAND THAT'S "SCREWING" AMERICANS.
IT'S CHINA! AND INDIA!
AND JUST ABOUT ANY OTHER COUNTRY WITH A LARGE UNEMPLOYED POPULATION
OF PAUPERS!
BUT, ALAS CHINA IS NOT ALONE IN THIS NEW VENTURE;
"INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL" IS NOW ALSO IN PLAY.
Free Trade has been used by INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL to "sell" it's
version of capitalism to the American public, and anyone else dumb
enough to listen.
Free Trade is after all, a political tool, not an economic doctrine
as readers of this board probably ALREADY know.
DURING THE FIRST AMERICAN REVOLUTION AMERICANS BOYCOTTED BRITISH
GOODS! HELD "TEA PARTIES" OF VARIOUS KINDS. AND
ENCOURAGED "HOMESPUN" AND DOMESTIC PRODUCTION TO WIN THEIR "TRADE
WAR" WITH ENGLAND.
ALAS, NOW A SECOND "TRADE REVOLUTION" SEEMS TO BE STARTING.
One where Americans will be DEMANDING protection AGAINST THE PAUPER
LABOR OF ASIA AND INDIA!
One where American productive capacity will be restored, and the
DANGEROUS trade deficit eliminated.
One where American Labor can again earn a living wage and suvive in
the NEW AND COMPLEX ECONOMY of the 21st Century.
ALAS, GENTLE READER, WE HAVE BEEN DOWN THIS ROAD BEFORE!
THE "TRADE REVOLUTION" OF 1776 WAS THE FIRST TIME AMERICANS FOUGHT
AGAINST UNFAIR TRADE!
NOW COMES THE SECOND TIME FOR AMERICANS TO STAND UP FOR THEIR RIGHTS
AND THEIR DIGNITY;
FORTUNATELY, THIS TIME WE DON'T NEED A CHANGE IN RULERS FROM AFAR!
NOW, ONLY A CHANGE IN WASHINGTON IS NEEDED!
Make no mistake, what's going to happen is serious business, and it
won't be easy.
But, the sooner we end the current ECONOMIC MADDESS;
The sooner the books will balance again as they must be;
And, the sooner we will restore AMERICA FOR AMERICANS!
NOT THE COOLIE PAUPER LABOR OF CHINA!
OR, THE HINDU MASSES OF INDIA!
the American Revolution.
It will be remembered that the FIRST AMERICAN REVOLUTION against
England was really ALL ABOUT TRADE!
England was forcing Americans to buy ONLY ENGLISH GOODS!
And, the American colonist/consumers bought a lot of them.
England then decided to raise a little revenue, and INCREASED TAXES
AND PRICES!
The rest is, as they say, HISTORY!
OK, FAST FORWARD TO TODAY:
Presently, Americans are getting the short end of the trade stick
yet AGAIN!
BUT, THIS TIME IT'S NOT ENGLAND THAT'S "SCREWING" AMERICANS.
IT'S CHINA! AND INDIA!
AND JUST ABOUT ANY OTHER COUNTRY WITH A LARGE UNEMPLOYED POPULATION
OF PAUPERS!
BUT, ALAS CHINA IS NOT ALONE IN THIS NEW VENTURE;
"INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL" IS NOW ALSO IN PLAY.
Free Trade has been used by INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL to "sell" it's
version of capitalism to the American public, and anyone else dumb
enough to listen.
Free Trade is after all, a political tool, not an economic doctrine
as readers of this board probably ALREADY know.
DURING THE FIRST AMERICAN REVOLUTION AMERICANS BOYCOTTED BRITISH
GOODS! HELD "TEA PARTIES" OF VARIOUS KINDS. AND
ENCOURAGED "HOMESPUN" AND DOMESTIC PRODUCTION TO WIN THEIR "TRADE
WAR" WITH ENGLAND.
ALAS, NOW A SECOND "TRADE REVOLUTION" SEEMS TO BE STARTING.
One where Americans will be DEMANDING protection AGAINST THE PAUPER
LABOR OF ASIA AND INDIA!
One where American productive capacity will be restored, and the
DANGEROUS trade deficit eliminated.
One where American Labor can again earn a living wage and suvive in
the NEW AND COMPLEX ECONOMY of the 21st Century.
ALAS, GENTLE READER, WE HAVE BEEN DOWN THIS ROAD BEFORE!
THE "TRADE REVOLUTION" OF 1776 WAS THE FIRST TIME AMERICANS FOUGHT
AGAINST UNFAIR TRADE!
NOW COMES THE SECOND TIME FOR AMERICANS TO STAND UP FOR THEIR RIGHTS
AND THEIR DIGNITY;
FORTUNATELY, THIS TIME WE DON'T NEED A CHANGE IN RULERS FROM AFAR!
NOW, ONLY A CHANGE IN WASHINGTON IS NEEDED!
Make no mistake, what's going to happen is serious business, and it
won't be easy.
But, the sooner we end the current ECONOMIC MADDESS;
The sooner the books will balance again as they must be;
And, the sooner we will restore AMERICA FOR AMERICANS!
NOT THE COOLIE PAUPER LABOR OF CHINA!
OR, THE HINDU MASSES OF INDIA!
COGGAN ON LEAD
Philip Coggan of FT informs us this week that: Gold is shining again.
Alas, he must have wrote thos words before the recent unpleasantness on Friday.
Coggan notes that Gold Bugs rightly say that all paper money is eventually inflated;
And that commodities and other assets are good "inflation protection."
Coggan also notes that ALL ASSETS are subject to speculative manias.
ALAS, EVEN GOLD!
Indeed, Gold has yet to reach it's old 1980's high of $800.
EVEN WHILE STOCKS BONDS AND REAL ESTATE HAVE SOARED OUTRAGEOUSLY RECENTLY!
IT IS PROBABLY WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT ALL ASSETS CAN BE UNREASONABLY PRICED;
AND INDEED, DURING PERIODS OF "UNHEALTHY" MONETARY POLICY ONE OR ANOTHER ASSET GROUP WILL PROBABLY BE SUBJECT TO A MANIA!
In the 70's and 80's it was GOLD!
TODAY, ITS REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS!
Coggan and others note that INDUSTRIAL METALS like copper and lead are now at highs unseen in years.
So, whether or not the central banks are "conspiring" against Gold and Gold bugs might not matter!
BAD MONETARY POLICY WILL OUT IN THE ASSET MARKETS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER! SOONER OR LATER.
So, if you don't like the action in GOLD?
BUY COPPER! BUY NICKLE! BUY NATURAL GAS! BUY OIL!
THE CENTRAL BANKERS CAN RUN;
BUT THEY CAN NOT HIDE FROM THEIR MISTAKES FOREVER!
MAYBE EVEN, BUY LEAD?
Ya think?
Alas, he must have wrote thos words before the recent unpleasantness on Friday.
Coggan notes that Gold Bugs rightly say that all paper money is eventually inflated;
And that commodities and other assets are good "inflation protection."
Coggan also notes that ALL ASSETS are subject to speculative manias.
ALAS, EVEN GOLD!
Indeed, Gold has yet to reach it's old 1980's high of $800.
EVEN WHILE STOCKS BONDS AND REAL ESTATE HAVE SOARED OUTRAGEOUSLY RECENTLY!
IT IS PROBABLY WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT ALL ASSETS CAN BE UNREASONABLY PRICED;
AND INDEED, DURING PERIODS OF "UNHEALTHY" MONETARY POLICY ONE OR ANOTHER ASSET GROUP WILL PROBABLY BE SUBJECT TO A MANIA!
In the 70's and 80's it was GOLD!
TODAY, ITS REAL ESTATE AND STOCKS!
Coggan and others note that INDUSTRIAL METALS like copper and lead are now at highs unseen in years.
So, whether or not the central banks are "conspiring" against Gold and Gold bugs might not matter!
BAD MONETARY POLICY WILL OUT IN THE ASSET MARKETS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER! SOONER OR LATER.
So, if you don't like the action in GOLD?
BUY COPPER! BUY NICKLE! BUY NATURAL GAS! BUY OIL!
THE CENTRAL BANKERS CAN RUN;
BUT THEY CAN NOT HIDE FROM THEIR MISTAKES FOREVER!
MAYBE EVEN, BUY LEAD?
Ya think?
Friday, February 20, 2004
GREENSPAN ON JOBS
Greenspan speaks three times next week, so that probably explains the
boost in the dollar today. Mr. G always "front runs" good news for
his speeches.
Still, how out of touch is Greenspan?
He seems to think that the answer to job loss is GOING TO COMMUNITY
COLLEGE!
Indeed, community colleges are the new graduate school!
EVERYONE IS DESPERATE FOR A READILY MARKETABLE SKILL NOW!
FORGET THE B.A. M.A. AND PhD track! THAT'S SOoooo 20TH CENTURY!
Only question is: How many nurses aides and network support people
can we absorb before EVEN THAT is fill up!
THE US JOBS MARKET HAS BEEN TRASHED.
AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH GREENSPAN AND DUBYA AND OTHERS
RESPONSIBLE TRY TO "EXPLAIN" IT AWAY DURING THE ELECTION.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200402202/defaul
t.htm
boost in the dollar today. Mr. G always "front runs" good news for
his speeches.
Still, how out of touch is Greenspan?
He seems to think that the answer to job loss is GOING TO COMMUNITY
COLLEGE!
Indeed, community colleges are the new graduate school!
EVERYONE IS DESPERATE FOR A READILY MARKETABLE SKILL NOW!
FORGET THE B.A. M.A. AND PhD track! THAT'S SOoooo 20TH CENTURY!
Only question is: How many nurses aides and network support people
can we absorb before EVEN THAT is fill up!
THE US JOBS MARKET HAS BEEN TRASHED.
AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH GREENSPAN AND DUBYA AND OTHERS
RESPONSIBLE TRY TO "EXPLAIN" IT AWAY DURING THE ELECTION.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200402202/defaul
t.htm
RELIGIOUS RIGHT DUMPS DUBYA!
NOW EVEN THE RELIGIOUS RIGHT IS DUMPING DUBYA!
more later...............
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040219-115609-3712r.htm
more later...............
http://www.washtimes.com/national/20040219-115609-3712r.htm
SECRET FORCES SAVE THE DOLLAR!
Clearly we can expect MASSIVE EFFORTS to save the dollar, whenever 130 Euro is approached.
And, Today's action is truly amazing!
GOLD STOCKS ARE SELLING OFF LIKE MAD!
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AU WHICH I CALLED AS A BUY, LAST NIGHT. BUT ALAS, NOW EVEN AU IS JOINING THE DOWNTREND.)
STILL, DURING THE XAU SNAPBACK PHASE, AU WILL OUTPERFORM ALL OF THE OTHERS.
GOOD NEWS FOR DAYTRADERS.
And, the idea of Japan raising its "terror alert" was a "nice touch."
A very creative way to lower the Yen, ON THE CHEAP!
PERHAPS WE'LL SEE MORE "CREATIVE" CURRENCY INTERVENTIONS IN THE FUTURE? Ya think?
MEANWHILE, SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE "PLAY."
DOLLAR SOARS, AS STOCK AND BOND MARKETS DROP, AND GOLD PLUNGES!
This could get the Pulitzer Prize for FICTION!
NONE OF IT IS "REAL."
ALTHOUGH IT IS "INTERESTING" TO WATCH THESE "HIDDEN FORCES" INTERACT.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html
And, Today's action is truly amazing!
GOLD STOCKS ARE SELLING OFF LIKE MAD!
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AU WHICH I CALLED AS A BUY, LAST NIGHT. BUT ALAS, NOW EVEN AU IS JOINING THE DOWNTREND.)
STILL, DURING THE XAU SNAPBACK PHASE, AU WILL OUTPERFORM ALL OF THE OTHERS.
GOOD NEWS FOR DAYTRADERS.
And, the idea of Japan raising its "terror alert" was a "nice touch."
A very creative way to lower the Yen, ON THE CHEAP!
PERHAPS WE'LL SEE MORE "CREATIVE" CURRENCY INTERVENTIONS IN THE FUTURE? Ya think?
MEANWHILE, SIT BACK AND ENJOY THE "PLAY."
DOLLAR SOARS, AS STOCK AND BOND MARKETS DROP, AND GOLD PLUNGES!
This could get the Pulitzer Prize for FICTION!
NONE OF IT IS "REAL."
ALTHOUGH IT IS "INTERESTING" TO WATCH THESE "HIDDEN FORCES" INTERACT.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html
AU SAVED BY GLOOM?
Well it looks like my "call" on Anglo-gold is "saving" AU's bacon today, at least a little bit! LOL!
Still, the central banks assault on gold is futile and temporary.
Sooner or later the entire XAU will spring back.
Appears that Mr G is trying to "save the dollar" by the "backdoor method!"
ATTACK GOLD! THAT'LL WORK.....FOR A WHILE.
I'M SALIVATING OVER THE XAU NOW! WHAT TO BUY.....WHAT TO BUY!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^xau
Still, the central banks assault on gold is futile and temporary.
Sooner or later the entire XAU will spring back.
Appears that Mr G is trying to "save the dollar" by the "backdoor method!"
ATTACK GOLD! THAT'LL WORK.....FOR A WHILE.
I'M SALIVATING OVER THE XAU NOW! WHAT TO BUY.....WHAT TO BUY!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^xau
Thursday, February 19, 2004
EDWARDS ON TRADE
In this 11th hour of the Democratic nomination process, Edwards may
be making himself LESS ELECTABLE by his anti-free trade rhetoric.
Consider:
Free Trade is now well established in the global economy.
And saddly, it is probably too late to: BRING THE FACTORIES BACK TO
AMERICA, as Edwards and others propose.
Why?
To reverse 20 years of free trade policy would simply be A SHOCK TO
THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM that could be dangerous.
Perhaps what needs to be done is to give the American workforce the
government backed subsidies that other global workers already have;
In Euroland, Canada, Australia and elsewhere in the civilized
industrialized world.
FOR EXAMPLE, A GOOD NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PROGRAM IS KEY.
AND, A SOCIAL WELFARE SYSTEM THAT PROTECTS PEOPLE, BUT WITHOUT
ENCOURAGING DEPENDANCY.
One thing we learned in the 70's is that if you pay people to have
lots of illegitimate children, THEY WILL DO IT!
BACK THEN, DEPENDANCY PAID! AND, IT WAS REALLY A WAY OF LIFE FOR
MANY.
That mistake should be avoided this time around!
Last, perhaps, retirement pensions should be means tested.
To wit: Anyone with a good income in retirement doesn't need another
check from the government.
NET-NET, I FEAR THAT A PRESIDENT THAT IS AVIDLY AND OPENLY ANTI-FREE
TRADE COULD UPSET THE APPLE-CART IN WAYS WE CAN NOT YET PREDICT.
I FEAR THAT THE FACTORIES WON'T REALLY "COME BACK."
BUT THAT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY COULD BE SEND INTO A DANGEROUS PANIC MODE.
LIKE AN ADDICT BEING WITHDRAWN FROM HIS "DRUG" OF CHOICE;
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY NEEDS TO BE WEENED OFF "FREE TRADE" A LITTLE BIT
AT A TIME.
KERRY'S "BORING" SENATORIAL STYLE MIGHT BE ABLE TO PULL THIS OFF
BETTER THAN SOMEONE, LIKE DEAN OR EDWARDS, WHO RELY ON "POPULIST"
RHETORIC AND STREET SLOGANS THAT MIGHT BE "DISRUPTIVE" TO THE SYSTEM.
SOLVE THE TRADE PROBLEM? YES! EVENTUALLY......
BUT FIRST AND FOREMOST;
DO NO HARM!
In other words, we don't want the operation to be a success, but the
patient died!
be making himself LESS ELECTABLE by his anti-free trade rhetoric.
Consider:
Free Trade is now well established in the global economy.
And saddly, it is probably too late to: BRING THE FACTORIES BACK TO
AMERICA, as Edwards and others propose.
Why?
To reverse 20 years of free trade policy would simply be A SHOCK TO
THE GLOBAL TRADING SYSTEM that could be dangerous.
Perhaps what needs to be done is to give the American workforce the
government backed subsidies that other global workers already have;
In Euroland, Canada, Australia and elsewhere in the civilized
industrialized world.
FOR EXAMPLE, A GOOD NATIONAL HEALTH CARE PROGRAM IS KEY.
AND, A SOCIAL WELFARE SYSTEM THAT PROTECTS PEOPLE, BUT WITHOUT
ENCOURAGING DEPENDANCY.
One thing we learned in the 70's is that if you pay people to have
lots of illegitimate children, THEY WILL DO IT!
BACK THEN, DEPENDANCY PAID! AND, IT WAS REALLY A WAY OF LIFE FOR
MANY.
That mistake should be avoided this time around!
Last, perhaps, retirement pensions should be means tested.
To wit: Anyone with a good income in retirement doesn't need another
check from the government.
NET-NET, I FEAR THAT A PRESIDENT THAT IS AVIDLY AND OPENLY ANTI-FREE
TRADE COULD UPSET THE APPLE-CART IN WAYS WE CAN NOT YET PREDICT.
I FEAR THAT THE FACTORIES WON'T REALLY "COME BACK."
BUT THAT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY COULD BE SEND INTO A DANGEROUS PANIC MODE.
LIKE AN ADDICT BEING WITHDRAWN FROM HIS "DRUG" OF CHOICE;
THE GLOBAL ECONOMY NEEDS TO BE WEENED OFF "FREE TRADE" A LITTLE BIT
AT A TIME.
KERRY'S "BORING" SENATORIAL STYLE MIGHT BE ABLE TO PULL THIS OFF
BETTER THAN SOMEONE, LIKE DEAN OR EDWARDS, WHO RELY ON "POPULIST"
RHETORIC AND STREET SLOGANS THAT MIGHT BE "DISRUPTIVE" TO THE SYSTEM.
SOLVE THE TRADE PROBLEM? YES! EVENTUALLY......
BUT FIRST AND FOREMOST;
DO NO HARM!
In other words, we don't want the operation to be a success, but the
patient died!
LEI GLOOMY, OR WHAT?
The Conference Boards LEI were reported higher, but are they really telling us anything?
Consider:
The improvment was mostly in CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS AND STOCK PRICES.
But, the downward indicators are MORE FUNDAMENTAL:
BUILDING PERMITS DOWN!
INTEREST RATES SPREADS GETTING WORSE!
MANUFACTUING ORDERS DOWN!
MONEY SUPPLY DOWN!
It's going to take more that CONSUMER HOPE and WALL STREET HYPE to turn this economy around in a real and convincing manner.
AT A MORE FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL, I LOOK AT THE LEI THIS MONTH AS A NEGATIVE FOR THE ECONOMY LONGER TERM!
http://www.tcb-indicators.org/us/LatestReleases/
Consider:
The improvment was mostly in CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS AND STOCK PRICES.
But, the downward indicators are MORE FUNDAMENTAL:
BUILDING PERMITS DOWN!
INTEREST RATES SPREADS GETTING WORSE!
MANUFACTUING ORDERS DOWN!
MONEY SUPPLY DOWN!
It's going to take more that CONSUMER HOPE and WALL STREET HYPE to turn this economy around in a real and convincing manner.
AT A MORE FUNDAMENTAL LEVEL, I LOOK AT THE LEI THIS MONTH AS A NEGATIVE FOR THE ECONOMY LONGER TERM!
http://www.tcb-indicators.org/us/LatestReleases/
GOLD STOCKS ARE A BUY!
The central banks attack on gold over the last days has created a great buying opportunity in the XAU stocks.
ANGLO-GOLD IS A BUY BELOW $40, EITHER ON A SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM BASIS.
THESE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES IN GOLD STOCKS OCCUR ALMOST ALWAYS BECAUSE OF CENTRAL BANKS ATTEMPTS TO "SAVE THE DOLLAR" AND AVOID EURO 130!
ALAS, BUT ALL IN VAIN.
The problem with the XAU is that the "snap back" is violent and often a one day affair, although the "bleed" in gold stocks can be multi-day.
Like I say: GOLD STOCKS GO DOWN EVERYDAY, BUT SOMEHOW NEVER REALLY GO DOWN.
ANGLO-GOLD IS A BUY BELOW $40! And, the rest of the XAU is looking good too.
ANGLO-GOLD IS A BUY BELOW $40, EITHER ON A SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM BASIS.
THESE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES IN GOLD STOCKS OCCUR ALMOST ALWAYS BECAUSE OF CENTRAL BANKS ATTEMPTS TO "SAVE THE DOLLAR" AND AVOID EURO 130!
ALAS, BUT ALL IN VAIN.
The problem with the XAU is that the "snap back" is violent and often a one day affair, although the "bleed" in gold stocks can be multi-day.
Like I say: GOLD STOCKS GO DOWN EVERYDAY, BUT SOMEHOW NEVER REALLY GO DOWN.
ANGLO-GOLD IS A BUY BELOW $40! And, the rest of the XAU is looking good too.
Wednesday, February 18, 2004
ADVISE TO DUBYA & KERRY
With Dean out of the race for President, time is getting short for
the Democrats to pick a horse for November.
And, the Kerry-Edwards choice is a bit difficult.
Kerry has the experience and "graviatas" that some people like in a
President---myself included.
But, others like the enthusiasm of Edwards.
Kerry tends to DRONE ON!
I hate that because I know that other people hate it. Perhaps Kerry
thinks he is sounding "Rooseveltian?"
That's OK for a while, but he needs more than a Patrician Roosevelt
Drone in this new day and age.
This is not the 1930's, when the style on the radio made everyone
seem to drone on!
Kerry should try to "pep it up" a little.
And maybe look less like a casting call reject from THE MUNSTERS!
Edwards again has a bit too much "frisky puppy" about him.
Being Presidential requires a different approach than just giving a
closing argument to a jury. Alas, Edwards needs more "gravitas."
And, Dubya? Ah yes.
And ah....And ah....And ah.....!
Someone should attach an electric shocker to Dubya and shock him
everytime he says: And, ah.....
I know that Dubya is a little clueless. And, Dubya knows he's a
little clueless.
But if he doesn't quit saying: AND....AH.....AND ......AH...
EVERYONE ELSE WILL FINALLY FIGURE OUT THAT DUBYA IS CLUELESS!
POSTSCRIPT: Just a little advise from the peanut gallery.
the Democrats to pick a horse for November.
And, the Kerry-Edwards choice is a bit difficult.
Kerry has the experience and "graviatas" that some people like in a
President---myself included.
But, others like the enthusiasm of Edwards.
Kerry tends to DRONE ON!
I hate that because I know that other people hate it. Perhaps Kerry
thinks he is sounding "Rooseveltian?"
That's OK for a while, but he needs more than a Patrician Roosevelt
Drone in this new day and age.
This is not the 1930's, when the style on the radio made everyone
seem to drone on!
Kerry should try to "pep it up" a little.
And maybe look less like a casting call reject from THE MUNSTERS!
Edwards again has a bit too much "frisky puppy" about him.
Being Presidential requires a different approach than just giving a
closing argument to a jury. Alas, Edwards needs more "gravitas."
And, Dubya? Ah yes.
And ah....And ah....And ah.....!
Someone should attach an electric shocker to Dubya and shock him
everytime he says: And, ah.....
I know that Dubya is a little clueless. And, Dubya knows he's a
little clueless.
But if he doesn't quit saying: AND....AH.....AND ......AH...
EVERYONE ELSE WILL FINALLY FIGURE OUT THAT DUBYA IS CLUELESS!
POSTSCRIPT: Just a little advise from the peanut gallery.
GOLD/EURO MANAGMENT?
The big drops in Gold and the Euro today looked a little "managed."
Ya think?
Still, without fundamentals behind these types of moves they're just temporary, and indeed, could be buying opportunities FOR THE RIGHT PEOPLE.
Golds down one more day are a sure snap-back scenario! Everyone know this isn't something "long-term" just the central banks showing that they are still in control. LOL.
EASY MONEY FOR THE DAYTRADERS! COMING RIGHT UP!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1d
Ya think?
Still, without fundamentals behind these types of moves they're just temporary, and indeed, could be buying opportunities FOR THE RIGHT PEOPLE.
Golds down one more day are a sure snap-back scenario! Everyone know this isn't something "long-term" just the central banks showing that they are still in control. LOL.
EASY MONEY FOR THE DAYTRADERS! COMING RIGHT UP!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EURUSD=X&t=1d
DOLLAR vs. THE MARKET
I'll be blunt:
AT SOME POINT GREENSPAN IS GOING TO HAVE TO "DEFEND" THE DOLLAR.
The question is how will this "feel" to the markets and what will it
look like.
Clearly, the dollar is in trouble.
And, it doesn't look like the expected decrease in the trade deficit
will materialize.
In fact, it's very possible that it's TOO LATE for that! And, a
lower dollar will simply mean that Americans are paying more for the
same amount of imported goods.
SO, IF THE "TRADE DEFICIT MAGIC" DOESN'T MATERIALIZE?
GREENSPAN MAY BE FORCED TO "GET REAL," AND RAISE RATES IN A (VAIN?)
ATTEMPT TO "DEFEND THE DOLLAR."
But, what will "doubling" rates do? Going from 1% to 2% should not
really effect "worthy" deals.
But it could smash the BOND CARRY TRADE. AND, OF COURSE, ALL OF THIS
IS HAPPENING "AT THE MARGINS."
SO...THE "NEWS" MIGHT BE WORSE THAN THE "CURE."
WILL A PANIC ENSUE? LETS HOPE NOT.
BUT, THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN ENCOURAGED TO HAVE SUCH A "JUVENILE"
MENTALITY; THAT ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.
I can envision a 1000 point drop upon the first rate hike. The
operative yada-yada will be "Its the first of many!" You know.
BUT, ANY LARGE DECLINE IN US ASSET PRICES MAY CAUSE THE DOLLAR TO
FALL EVEN MORE! AS FOREIGNERS, LATE TO THE PARTY, DECIDE TO LEAVE.
Remember, the actual twin deficits are seperate from Greenspan's
sphere of influence; which is merely to control short term rates!
WHAT TO DO?
THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE "TANGLED WEB" WE WEAVE WHEN THE CENTRAL BANK TRYS
TO MANIPLUATE THE ASSET MARKETS!
AN EVIL WARNED AGAINST BY THE ECB IN TODAY'S WSJ!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html
AT SOME POINT GREENSPAN IS GOING TO HAVE TO "DEFEND" THE DOLLAR.
The question is how will this "feel" to the markets and what will it
look like.
Clearly, the dollar is in trouble.
And, it doesn't look like the expected decrease in the trade deficit
will materialize.
In fact, it's very possible that it's TOO LATE for that! And, a
lower dollar will simply mean that Americans are paying more for the
same amount of imported goods.
SO, IF THE "TRADE DEFICIT MAGIC" DOESN'T MATERIALIZE?
GREENSPAN MAY BE FORCED TO "GET REAL," AND RAISE RATES IN A (VAIN?)
ATTEMPT TO "DEFEND THE DOLLAR."
But, what will "doubling" rates do? Going from 1% to 2% should not
really effect "worthy" deals.
But it could smash the BOND CARRY TRADE. AND, OF COURSE, ALL OF THIS
IS HAPPENING "AT THE MARGINS."
SO...THE "NEWS" MIGHT BE WORSE THAN THE "CURE."
WILL A PANIC ENSUE? LETS HOPE NOT.
BUT, THE MARKETS HAVE BEEN ENCOURAGED TO HAVE SUCH A "JUVENILE"
MENTALITY; THAT ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.
I can envision a 1000 point drop upon the first rate hike. The
operative yada-yada will be "Its the first of many!" You know.
BUT, ANY LARGE DECLINE IN US ASSET PRICES MAY CAUSE THE DOLLAR TO
FALL EVEN MORE! AS FOREIGNERS, LATE TO THE PARTY, DECIDE TO LEAVE.
Remember, the actual twin deficits are seperate from Greenspan's
sphere of influence; which is merely to control short term rates!
WHAT TO DO?
THIS HIGHLIGHTS THE "TANGLED WEB" WE WEAVE WHEN THE CENTRAL BANK TRYS
TO MANIPLUATE THE ASSET MARKETS!
AN EVIL WARNED AGAINST BY THE ECB IN TODAY'S WSJ!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/markets/currencies.html
ECB SPANKS GREENSPAN!
Today's lead op-ed in the WSJ by an ECB economist seems to "spank" Greenspan's Fed.
The writer questions whether any central bank should attempt to influence ASSET PRICES.
INDEED, IN THE LAST FEW YEARS IT SEEM THAT GREENSPAN'S JOB DESCRIPTION HAS BEEN TO MAKE THE WORLD SAFE FOR MULTIPLE EXPANSION AND ASSET INFLATION!
The editorial questions if THAT policy would eliminate MORAL HAZARD AND ENCOURAGE PUBLIC SPECUALTION IN STOCKS AND ASSETS!
INDEED, IT OFTEN SEEMS THAT IN THE US SPECULATION IS LIKE PUBLIC DRUNKENNESS IN NEW ORLEANS DURING MARDI GRAS!!
A PUBLIC VIRTUE TO BE ENCOURAGED! NOT FROWNED UPON.
It is also mentioned that this type of policy could cause MISALLOCATION OF RESOURCES.
AND EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF THE CURRENCY AND THE ECONOMY.
WELL, WHEN YOU CAN'T SEEM TO "MAKE IT" WITHOUT AN ASSET BUBBLE, I GUESS YOU HAVE TO EXPECT SOME PROBLEMS.
The writer questions whether any central bank should attempt to influence ASSET PRICES.
INDEED, IN THE LAST FEW YEARS IT SEEM THAT GREENSPAN'S JOB DESCRIPTION HAS BEEN TO MAKE THE WORLD SAFE FOR MULTIPLE EXPANSION AND ASSET INFLATION!
The editorial questions if THAT policy would eliminate MORAL HAZARD AND ENCOURAGE PUBLIC SPECUALTION IN STOCKS AND ASSETS!
INDEED, IT OFTEN SEEMS THAT IN THE US SPECULATION IS LIKE PUBLIC DRUNKENNESS IN NEW ORLEANS DURING MARDI GRAS!!
A PUBLIC VIRTUE TO BE ENCOURAGED! NOT FROWNED UPON.
It is also mentioned that this type of policy could cause MISALLOCATION OF RESOURCES.
AND EVENTUAL WEAKENING OF THE CURRENCY AND THE ECONOMY.
WELL, WHEN YOU CAN'T SEEM TO "MAKE IT" WITHOUT AN ASSET BUBBLE, I GUESS YOU HAVE TO EXPECT SOME PROBLEMS.
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
DEVALUTION RALLIES!
There is a strange kind of gloomy joy in the markets lately.
EVERYTHING IS GOING UP EXCEPT THE DOLLAR.
GOLD SOARED TODAY. STOCKS TOO. AND OIL!
Only the lowly dollar was down. But, what will happen if or when the
dollar finally crosses 130 on the Euro? 140? 150?
What will oil be going for then?
THE POINT IS THAT THE ECONOMY HAS PEAKED TOO SOON FOR DUBYA TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF IT DURING THE COMING ELECTION.
AND TWO DOLLAR GAS IS A BARRIER THAT MUST NOT BE CROSSED IF DUBYA IS TO HAVE ANY CHANCES OF RE-ELECTION.
Indeed, the dollar can fall to 150 Euro and mom and pop won't care,
but if gas hits $2.00 all HELL will break loose.
THERE IS SOMETHING VERY STRANGE AFOOT ON WALL STREET LATELY.
I WOULD CALL THEM THE: DEVALUATION RALLIES!
AND, THAT SEEMS A PERFECT DESCRIPTION OF TODAY'S ACTION.
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAJ4ECJSQD.html
EVERYTHING IS GOING UP EXCEPT THE DOLLAR.
GOLD SOARED TODAY. STOCKS TOO. AND OIL!
Only the lowly dollar was down. But, what will happen if or when the
dollar finally crosses 130 on the Euro? 140? 150?
What will oil be going for then?
THE POINT IS THAT THE ECONOMY HAS PEAKED TOO SOON FOR DUBYA TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF IT DURING THE COMING ELECTION.
AND TWO DOLLAR GAS IS A BARRIER THAT MUST NOT BE CROSSED IF DUBYA IS TO HAVE ANY CHANCES OF RE-ELECTION.
Indeed, the dollar can fall to 150 Euro and mom and pop won't care,
but if gas hits $2.00 all HELL will break loose.
THERE IS SOMETHING VERY STRANGE AFOOT ON WALL STREET LATELY.
I WOULD CALL THEM THE: DEVALUATION RALLIES!
AND, THAT SEEMS A PERFECT DESCRIPTION OF TODAY'S ACTION.
http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGAJ4ECJSQD.html
PIE IN THE SKY JOBS ARGUMENT
The FREE TRADERS are out en masse, with their PIE-IN-THE-SKY JOBS
arguments.
The operative notion seems to be that the mass migration of jobs of
all kinds to LOW WAGE COUNTRIES is ultimately a "good thing" for
American Workers. But alas, they leave the details a little sketchy.
But, to actually believe this odd notion you have to IGNORE HISTORY
big time!
Alas, the punditacracy has never been good with historical facts, but
consider:
In the past, technology changed jobs for the better, there were
always more jobs, not less, because of the new technology.
Sure the popular "buggy whip" makers stoped making buggy whips BUT
THEY DID NOT GO COMPLETELY OUT OF BUSINESS!
THEY MAKE OTHER THINGS, LIKE CAR SEATS AND CAR TOPS FOR THE NEW AUTO
INDUSTRY.
And, Body by Fisher, IMMEDIATELY TRASITIONED from carriage makers to
car body makers WITH HUGE INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF JOBS ON OFFER!
Another boogus argument is the so-called transition from FARM TO
FACTORY!
FARM PRODUCTIVITY DID NOT DRIVE PEOPLE FROM THE LAND! URBAN
FACTORIES ATTRACTED PEOPLE WITH HIGH WAGES. THEN AND ONLY THEN, DID
THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE FARMS INCREASE WITH TRACTORS, MACHINERY ETC.
PEOPLE DID NOT MOVE FROM THE FARMS TO THE CITIES, TO SIMPLY WANDER
AROUND JOBLESS IN THE CITIES! UNTIL THE FACTORIES OPENED UP!
THIS IS THE "BIG LIE" THAT THE FREE TRADE CROWD IS PUSHING RIGHT NOW!
The facts are these, CHEAP LABOR HAS BEEN AROUND FOR CENTURIES!
EVERYONE KNEW ABOUT IT, BUT IT WAS AVOIDED BY MOST LARGE NATIONS,
BECAUSE EVERYONE KNEW IT WOULD BREAK THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY SOONER OR
LATER!
THAT'S WHY TARIFFS ARE NOT JUST THE RECENT RAVINGS OF SOME UNIONIST
TYPES!
TARIFFS HAVE A LONG, LONG HISTORY, GOING BACK TO ANCIENT AND MEDIEVEL
TIMES! SO DOES PRICE FIXING! AND, OTHER RESTICTIONS ON DOMESTIC
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
What is new is this slavish devotion to FREE TRADE AMONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BANKERS AND GLOBAL CAPITALISTS.
BUT ALAS, gentle reader, tHEIR "INTERESTS" ARE NOT YOUR INTERESTS!
But, the pie-in-the-sky jobs crowd will soon be hopelessly
discredited;
Then, we will have to pick up the pieces of what's left of the US
Economy;
AND FIGURE OUT WHAT COMES NEXT!
THE NEXT FEW YEARS WILL NOT BE PRETTY;
ON THE OTHER HAND, OUR NEW PRESIDENT KERRY WILL BE PRESENTED
WITH A VERY VERY RARE: "ROOSEVELT MOMENT."
AND, THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.
arguments.
The operative notion seems to be that the mass migration of jobs of
all kinds to LOW WAGE COUNTRIES is ultimately a "good thing" for
American Workers. But alas, they leave the details a little sketchy.
But, to actually believe this odd notion you have to IGNORE HISTORY
big time!
Alas, the punditacracy has never been good with historical facts, but
consider:
In the past, technology changed jobs for the better, there were
always more jobs, not less, because of the new technology.
Sure the popular "buggy whip" makers stoped making buggy whips BUT
THEY DID NOT GO COMPLETELY OUT OF BUSINESS!
THEY MAKE OTHER THINGS, LIKE CAR SEATS AND CAR TOPS FOR THE NEW AUTO
INDUSTRY.
And, Body by Fisher, IMMEDIATELY TRASITIONED from carriage makers to
car body makers WITH HUGE INCREASES IN THE NUMBER OF JOBS ON OFFER!
Another boogus argument is the so-called transition from FARM TO
FACTORY!
FARM PRODUCTIVITY DID NOT DRIVE PEOPLE FROM THE LAND! URBAN
FACTORIES ATTRACTED PEOPLE WITH HIGH WAGES. THEN AND ONLY THEN, DID
THE PRODUCTIVITY OF THE FARMS INCREASE WITH TRACTORS, MACHINERY ETC.
PEOPLE DID NOT MOVE FROM THE FARMS TO THE CITIES, TO SIMPLY WANDER
AROUND JOBLESS IN THE CITIES! UNTIL THE FACTORIES OPENED UP!
THIS IS THE "BIG LIE" THAT THE FREE TRADE CROWD IS PUSHING RIGHT NOW!
The facts are these, CHEAP LABOR HAS BEEN AROUND FOR CENTURIES!
EVERYONE KNEW ABOUT IT, BUT IT WAS AVOIDED BY MOST LARGE NATIONS,
BECAUSE EVERYONE KNEW IT WOULD BREAK THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY SOONER OR
LATER!
THAT'S WHY TARIFFS ARE NOT JUST THE RECENT RAVINGS OF SOME UNIONIST
TYPES!
TARIFFS HAVE A LONG, LONG HISTORY, GOING BACK TO ANCIENT AND MEDIEVEL
TIMES! SO DOES PRICE FIXING! AND, OTHER RESTICTIONS ON DOMESTIC
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
What is new is this slavish devotion to FREE TRADE AMONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BANKERS AND GLOBAL CAPITALISTS.
BUT ALAS, gentle reader, tHEIR "INTERESTS" ARE NOT YOUR INTERESTS!
But, the pie-in-the-sky jobs crowd will soon be hopelessly
discredited;
Then, we will have to pick up the pieces of what's left of the US
Economy;
AND FIGURE OUT WHAT COMES NEXT!
THE NEXT FEW YEARS WILL NOT BE PRETTY;
ON THE OTHER HAND, OUR NEW PRESIDENT KERRY WILL BE PRESENTED
WITH A VERY VERY RARE: "ROOSEVELT MOMENT."
AND, THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN VERY OFTEN.
Monday, February 16, 2004
DEAN SEEKS "PARTY WITHIN A PARTY?"
Dr Dean's prescription for the Democratic Party seems to be to lead
a "party within a party."
By staying in the race, but promising to support the eventual
nominee, Dean could become a major power broker. And, could actually
form a "wing" of the party, for the more disenchanted Democrats who
in the past have been prone to "third party tendencies."
Clearly, the Democrats have been hurt most by these "reformist"
candidates, like Perot and Nader.
Indeed, but for Perot and Nader, it could be argued that
the "minority" Democrats are really a majority of the electorate.
In the same way that the Republicans are going to try to hold on to
the Bubba Republicans;
Including the NASCAR dads, who have little in common with Wall
Street's agenda, and the soccer moms, who are conservative on social
issues, but anti-war and pro-social equality.
Perhaps, the "party within a party" model is an idea whose time has
finally come.
"E PLURIBUS UNUM" COULD BE THE DEMOCRATS WINNING STRATEGY THIS TIME.
BECAUSE THE "THIRD PARTY" TENDENCIES OF THE LAST FEW ELECTION CYCLES
HAVE REALLY BEEN HURTING DEMOCRATS BIG TIME!
DR DEAN COULD BE THE BEST REFORMER YET, BY STAYING WITHIN A MAJOR
PARTY AS A GADFLY, AND NOT PLAYING THE SPOILER, AS NADER AND PEROT SADDLY DID IN THE PAST.
a "party within a party."
By staying in the race, but promising to support the eventual
nominee, Dean could become a major power broker. And, could actually
form a "wing" of the party, for the more disenchanted Democrats who
in the past have been prone to "third party tendencies."
Clearly, the Democrats have been hurt most by these "reformist"
candidates, like Perot and Nader.
Indeed, but for Perot and Nader, it could be argued that
the "minority" Democrats are really a majority of the electorate.
In the same way that the Republicans are going to try to hold on to
the Bubba Republicans;
Including the NASCAR dads, who have little in common with Wall
Street's agenda, and the soccer moms, who are conservative on social
issues, but anti-war and pro-social equality.
Perhaps, the "party within a party" model is an idea whose time has
finally come.
"E PLURIBUS UNUM" COULD BE THE DEMOCRATS WINNING STRATEGY THIS TIME.
BECAUSE THE "THIRD PARTY" TENDENCIES OF THE LAST FEW ELECTION CYCLES
HAVE REALLY BEEN HURTING DEMOCRATS BIG TIME!
DR DEAN COULD BE THE BEST REFORMER YET, BY STAYING WITHIN A MAJOR
PARTY AS A GADFLY, AND NOT PLAYING THE SPOILER, AS NADER AND PEROT SADDLY DID IN THE PAST.
Sunday, February 15, 2004
NASCAR DADS WAKE UP!
Dubya's blatant attempt to kiss up to the NASCAR dads today, could
fall flat. Because the Republican notion that all NASCAR dads are
fat stupid idiots could be wrong!
Dubya is running for re-election on HIS RECORD now. No longer is
Dubya merely the best NON-CLINTON choice.
And, Gay Marriage just seems like a clear states rights issue.
Unlike the Republican old reliables of gun control, prayer in schools, and right to life that were used in the past to bambozzle NASCAR dads into voting for the Wall Street agenda.
Indeed, it seems that Kerry is running as the NON-BUSH candidate
theses days.
Dubya's record in a word is a DISASTER!
Even Geo. Will today said that; UNLESS JOBS PICK UP SOON, there will be a job change in the White House.
DUBYA'S WAR IN IRAQ, ON FALSE PRETENSES, IS REALLY A JOYLESS
ADVENTURE NOW;
A WAR THAT HAS NOT PRODUCED EVEN ONE PHOTO-OP; SINCE DUBYA WAS
PHOTOGRAPHED WITH THAT FAKE TURKEY ON THANKSGIVING!
And, Dubya's obsession with turning over Iraq to Iraqis by NO LATER THAN June 30 seems related to the elections;
AND, NOT THE REALITIES ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ!
IS THIS IMPERILING AMERICAN SOLDIERS IN BAGHDAD? YOU BET!
And all of the yada-yada by the apologists for FREE TRADE about OFF SHORING are based on the notion that NEW JOBS WILL SOMEHOW MAGICALLY APPEAR!
BUT WHERE? HOW? WHAT WILL THESE JOBS LOOK LIKE?
Prior "technological innovations" created NEW PRODUCT AND NEW JOBS
IMMEDIATELY!
The "buggy whip" makers made car seats, ASAP! And, lots of them!
The "carriage" makers made car bodies, ASAP! And lots of them!
When the railroad replaced the stage coach, jobs soared immediately in the railroad business. Not later.
ALL PRIOR TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION RESULTED IN IMMEDIATE AND OBVIOUS
LOCAL GROWTH!!
NOT "JOBS LATER!"
NOT "PIE IN THE SKY" JOBS SOMEDAY!
IN THE PAST, EVERYBODY HAD SOMETHING TO DO RIGHT AWAY, RIGHT AFTER
INNOVATIONS TOOK HOLD!
EVEN THE RECENT INTERNET REVOLUTION OF THE 90's CREATED IMMEDIATE JOBS!
ALBIET NOW, SEEMINGLY TEMPORARY! BECAUSE OF THE OFF SHOREING GOING
ON!
SEE THE DIFFERENCE?
THE PRESENT SITUATION SIMPLY IS NOT HOW TECHNOLOGY HAS TRADITIONALLY
CREATED NEW JOBS IN THE PAST!
EXPORTING JOBS HAS NEVER BEEN THE BASIS FOR ECONOMIC PROGRESS.
AND, IT WILL NOT BE THIS TIME.
WAKE UP NASCAR DADS! YOUR SURVIVAL IS ON THE LINE.
fall flat. Because the Republican notion that all NASCAR dads are
fat stupid idiots could be wrong!
Dubya is running for re-election on HIS RECORD now. No longer is
Dubya merely the best NON-CLINTON choice.
And, Gay Marriage just seems like a clear states rights issue.
Unlike the Republican old reliables of gun control, prayer in schools, and right to life that were used in the past to bambozzle NASCAR dads into voting for the Wall Street agenda.
Indeed, it seems that Kerry is running as the NON-BUSH candidate
theses days.
Dubya's record in a word is a DISASTER!
Even Geo. Will today said that; UNLESS JOBS PICK UP SOON, there will be a job change in the White House.
DUBYA'S WAR IN IRAQ, ON FALSE PRETENSES, IS REALLY A JOYLESS
ADVENTURE NOW;
A WAR THAT HAS NOT PRODUCED EVEN ONE PHOTO-OP; SINCE DUBYA WAS
PHOTOGRAPHED WITH THAT FAKE TURKEY ON THANKSGIVING!
And, Dubya's obsession with turning over Iraq to Iraqis by NO LATER THAN June 30 seems related to the elections;
AND, NOT THE REALITIES ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ!
IS THIS IMPERILING AMERICAN SOLDIERS IN BAGHDAD? YOU BET!
And all of the yada-yada by the apologists for FREE TRADE about OFF SHORING are based on the notion that NEW JOBS WILL SOMEHOW MAGICALLY APPEAR!
BUT WHERE? HOW? WHAT WILL THESE JOBS LOOK LIKE?
Prior "technological innovations" created NEW PRODUCT AND NEW JOBS
IMMEDIATELY!
The "buggy whip" makers made car seats, ASAP! And, lots of them!
The "carriage" makers made car bodies, ASAP! And lots of them!
When the railroad replaced the stage coach, jobs soared immediately in the railroad business. Not later.
ALL PRIOR TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION RESULTED IN IMMEDIATE AND OBVIOUS
LOCAL GROWTH!!
NOT "JOBS LATER!"
NOT "PIE IN THE SKY" JOBS SOMEDAY!
IN THE PAST, EVERYBODY HAD SOMETHING TO DO RIGHT AWAY, RIGHT AFTER
INNOVATIONS TOOK HOLD!
EVEN THE RECENT INTERNET REVOLUTION OF THE 90's CREATED IMMEDIATE JOBS!
ALBIET NOW, SEEMINGLY TEMPORARY! BECAUSE OF THE OFF SHOREING GOING
ON!
SEE THE DIFFERENCE?
THE PRESENT SITUATION SIMPLY IS NOT HOW TECHNOLOGY HAS TRADITIONALLY
CREATED NEW JOBS IN THE PAST!
EXPORTING JOBS HAS NEVER BEEN THE BASIS FOR ECONOMIC PROGRESS.
AND, IT WILL NOT BE THIS TIME.
WAKE UP NASCAR DADS! YOUR SURVIVAL IS ON THE LINE.
Saturday, February 14, 2004
AMERICA: LAND FOR BARS AND RESTURANTS!
AMERICA: LAND OF BARS AND RESTURANTS!
AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT THE EXPERTS SEE ON THE HORIZON FOR JOBS.
Of course, there are always health care jobs for those into wiping
Boomer Ass! I even saw one report that sextons, or grave diggers,
would be in big demand because of the ageing Boomers!
Oh, Pleaseeeee......!
Are Boomers going to be dying off that fast! That we won't even be
able to dig their graves fast enough!
HEY, I'M DIGGING AS FAST IS I CAN, BOSS! BETTER HIRE MORE HELP!
One thing that the HEALTH CARE advocates may be missing is that the US MIGHT NOT ALWAYS SPEND 15 % OF GDP ON HEALTH CARE!
JUST MAYBE, AT SOME POINT, AMERICANS WILL SOBER UP, AND JUST GO WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL OF NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE.
JUST MAYBE, WE WILL BE SANE ENOUGH TO GET HEALTH CARE SPENDING DOWN TO THE GLOBAL AVERAGE OF ABOUT 8% OF GDP.
OR, ARE AMERICAN TOO STUPID FOR THAT?
WELL, I NEVER UNDER-ESTIMATE THE STUPIDITY OF THE AMERICAN PUBLIC!
BUT STILL, YOU WOULD THING THAT AT SOME POINT THEY WOULD CATCH ON AS TO HOW BADLY THEY ARE BEING SCREWED BY THE HEALTH CARE LOBBY AND BIG
PHARMA! JUST MAYBE? SOMEDAY?
Or, will the boogy-boogy of GAY MARRIAGE spook and fascinate the American Idiot Class...... ENDLESSLY!
WELL GRANNY, IF YOU CAN'T SHAKE YOUR MONEY MAKER;
YOU'RE PROBABLY SCREWED IN AMERICA ANYWAY!
.............GOOD LUCK WORKING FOR TIPS! SUCKERS!
http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/12/pf/jobs_blsprojection/index.htm
AT LEAST THAT IS WHAT THE EXPERTS SEE ON THE HORIZON FOR JOBS.
Of course, there are always health care jobs for those into wiping
Boomer Ass! I even saw one report that sextons, or grave diggers,
would be in big demand because of the ageing Boomers!
Oh, Pleaseeeee......!
Are Boomers going to be dying off that fast! That we won't even be
able to dig their graves fast enough!
HEY, I'M DIGGING AS FAST IS I CAN, BOSS! BETTER HIRE MORE HELP!
One thing that the HEALTH CARE advocates may be missing is that the US MIGHT NOT ALWAYS SPEND 15 % OF GDP ON HEALTH CARE!
JUST MAYBE, AT SOME POINT, AMERICANS WILL SOBER UP, AND JUST GO WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL OF NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE.
JUST MAYBE, WE WILL BE SANE ENOUGH TO GET HEALTH CARE SPENDING DOWN TO THE GLOBAL AVERAGE OF ABOUT 8% OF GDP.
OR, ARE AMERICAN TOO STUPID FOR THAT?
WELL, I NEVER UNDER-ESTIMATE THE STUPIDITY OF THE AMERICAN PUBLIC!
BUT STILL, YOU WOULD THING THAT AT SOME POINT THEY WOULD CATCH ON AS TO HOW BADLY THEY ARE BEING SCREWED BY THE HEALTH CARE LOBBY AND BIG
PHARMA! JUST MAYBE? SOMEDAY?
Or, will the boogy-boogy of GAY MARRIAGE spook and fascinate the American Idiot Class...... ENDLESSLY!
WELL GRANNY, IF YOU CAN'T SHAKE YOUR MONEY MAKER;
YOU'RE PROBABLY SCREWED IN AMERICA ANYWAY!
.............GOOD LUCK WORKING FOR TIPS! SUCKERS!
http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/12/pf/jobs_blsprojection/index.htm
UNLEASH SADDAM?
Clearly, things are not going well in Iraq. In fact, that is
probably a gross unstatement. THINGS ARE FALLING APART! FAST!
Equally Clearly, what Iraq needs right now is a ruthless dictator to
control the streets with an iron fist.
Indeed, THAT is exactly what the Taliban were doing in Afganhistan!
And, THAT is exactly what Saddam was doing in Iraq.
BEFORE DUBYA AND CHUMS HAD A "BRAIN STORM" ABOUT DEMOCRATIZATION!!
WHAT CAN PUT THE IRAQ GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE?
WELL, RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO GOOD CHOICES.
The Shia are clamoring for an Islamic State.
The Kurds are clamoring for a disasterous independance.
The Sunnis and the Jihadi of all nations are running wild in the
streets!
BUT THERE IS ONE DEVIOUS AND DEVILISH ANSWER,.....BUT YOU PROBABLY
WON'T LIKE IT......
GIVE ALL PARTIES 48 HOURS TO "STRAIGHTEN UP AND FLY RIGHT,"
OR,......WE RELEASE SADDAM, AND PUT HIM BACK IN POWER, WITH US
BACKING, JUST LIKE WE DID BACK IN THE 1970's!!
Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we let TOTAL IDIOTS
RUN THINGS IN WASHINGTON!!
TRUTH IS THAT SADDAM WAS THE BEST THING WE HAD GOING IN THE MIDDLE
EAST. OK, HE BLUSTERED FOR THE ARAB STREET A LITTLE BIT. BUT,
LATELY, HE WAS WELL CONTAINED, WELL INSPECTED, WRITING HIS LITTLE
ROMANCE NOVELS, AND PROBABLY DOING A LITTLE HEROIN ON THE SIDE.
INDEED, IF SADDAM DIDN'T EXIST THE WEST WOULD PROBABLY HAVE HAD
TO "INVENT HIM" BUT WAIT! THE WEST DID INVENT HIM! WAY BACK WHEN
IRAN WAS THE BIG NASTY. REMEMBER?
MARK THESE WORDS:
IRAQ IS GOING TO SEND DUBYA BACK TO CRAWFORD, NO MATTER WHAT THE
ECONOMY DOES BETWEEN NOW AND THE ELECTION.
probably a gross unstatement. THINGS ARE FALLING APART! FAST!
Equally Clearly, what Iraq needs right now is a ruthless dictator to
control the streets with an iron fist.
Indeed, THAT is exactly what the Taliban were doing in Afganhistan!
And, THAT is exactly what Saddam was doing in Iraq.
BEFORE DUBYA AND CHUMS HAD A "BRAIN STORM" ABOUT DEMOCRATIZATION!!
WHAT CAN PUT THE IRAQ GENIE BACK IN THE BOTTLE?
WELL, RIGHT NOW THERE ARE NO GOOD CHOICES.
The Shia are clamoring for an Islamic State.
The Kurds are clamoring for a disasterous independance.
The Sunnis and the Jihadi of all nations are running wild in the
streets!
BUT THERE IS ONE DEVIOUS AND DEVILISH ANSWER,.....BUT YOU PROBABLY
WON'T LIKE IT......
GIVE ALL PARTIES 48 HOURS TO "STRAIGHTEN UP AND FLY RIGHT,"
OR,......WE RELEASE SADDAM, AND PUT HIM BACK IN POWER, WITH US
BACKING, JUST LIKE WE DID BACK IN THE 1970's!!
Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when we let TOTAL IDIOTS
RUN THINGS IN WASHINGTON!!
TRUTH IS THAT SADDAM WAS THE BEST THING WE HAD GOING IN THE MIDDLE
EAST. OK, HE BLUSTERED FOR THE ARAB STREET A LITTLE BIT. BUT,
LATELY, HE WAS WELL CONTAINED, WELL INSPECTED, WRITING HIS LITTLE
ROMANCE NOVELS, AND PROBABLY DOING A LITTLE HEROIN ON THE SIDE.
INDEED, IF SADDAM DIDN'T EXIST THE WEST WOULD PROBABLY HAVE HAD
TO "INVENT HIM" BUT WAIT! THE WEST DID INVENT HIM! WAY BACK WHEN
IRAN WAS THE BIG NASTY. REMEMBER?
MARK THESE WORDS:
IRAQ IS GOING TO SEND DUBYA BACK TO CRAWFORD, NO MATTER WHAT THE
ECONOMY DOES BETWEEN NOW AND THE ELECTION.
Friday, February 13, 2004
AUTO JOBS GO TO CHINA!
Is there going to be any manufacturing in the US in ten years?
Apparently not!
WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED IS A HIGH LEVEL COMMISSION TO STUDY THE REAL CONSEQUENCES OF OFF-SHORING.
CAN WE REALLY RELY ON BLIND FAITH IN FREE TRADE?
CAN WE REALLY RELY ON "THE INVISIBLE HAND?"
CAN WE REALLY RELY ONLY ON HOPE AND HYPE AND WISHFUL THINKING?
DOESN'T IT BEHOOVE THE FREE TRADERS TO TELL EXACTLY HOW THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN? WHAT IT WILL FEEL LIKE WHEN IT HAPPENS?
ARE WE ALL GOING TO BE SCIENTIFIC GENIUSES SUDDENLY?
OR ARE WE ALL GOING TO BE WORKING IN BARS AND RESTURANTS?
DETAILS!! PLEASEEEEEEEE...............! AND SOON!
CAN SOMETHING THIS IMPORTANT BE ONLY "FAITH BASED?"
Apparently not!
WHAT IS REALLY NEEDED IS A HIGH LEVEL COMMISSION TO STUDY THE REAL CONSEQUENCES OF OFF-SHORING.
CAN WE REALLY RELY ON BLIND FAITH IN FREE TRADE?
CAN WE REALLY RELY ON "THE INVISIBLE HAND?"
CAN WE REALLY RELY ONLY ON HOPE AND HYPE AND WISHFUL THINKING?
DOESN'T IT BEHOOVE THE FREE TRADERS TO TELL EXACTLY HOW THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN? WHAT IT WILL FEEL LIKE WHEN IT HAPPENS?
ARE WE ALL GOING TO BE SCIENTIFIC GENIUSES SUDDENLY?
OR ARE WE ALL GOING TO BE WORKING IN BARS AND RESTURANTS?
DETAILS!! PLEASEEEEEEEE...............! AND SOON!
CAN SOMETHING THIS IMPORTANT BE ONLY "FAITH BASED?"
MAKE REPUBLICANS START DRINKING! DRAFT HILLARY!
Whether the Drudge Report's intern flap about Senator Kerry has legs
is yet to be seen.
Presumably, the Kerry Camp took pains to hide all of the skeletons
PRIOR to entering this race. Ya'd Suppose?
But still, if there is "something" about Kerry that destroys his
chances, I doubt that Dr Dean will benefit.
Dean's "loser" credentials are NOW TOO WELL ESTABLISHED!
SO, DREAM ON DEANIE BABIES!
Still, with the vogue for scandel in the US today, and with every
BIMBO ready for her "15 minute of fame," because "he looked at me
funny," or whatever. You never can tell.
APPARENTLY, ONLY DEMOCRATS HAVE THESE SEX PROBLEMS THOUGH,.....VERY
STRANGE INDEED.
PERHAPS, IT'S BECAUSE DEMOCRATS "LIKE PEOPLE" MORE? YA THINK?
THEY LIVE LESS "REPRESSIVE" LIFE STYLES. THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO "GO
TO CHURCH" REGULARLY.
UNLIKE REPUBLICANS---WHOSE GOOD MORALS, AND REGULAR CHURCH GOING TEND
TO PUSH THEM MORE TOWARDS DRUG AND ALCOHOL ABUSE!
BY GOLLY, I THINK THAT'S IT EXACTLY!
QUICK CALL MATT DRUDGE.................
Postscript: Maybe a DRAFT HILLARY MOVEMENT is on the horizon?
is yet to be seen.
Presumably, the Kerry Camp took pains to hide all of the skeletons
PRIOR to entering this race. Ya'd Suppose?
But still, if there is "something" about Kerry that destroys his
chances, I doubt that Dr Dean will benefit.
Dean's "loser" credentials are NOW TOO WELL ESTABLISHED!
SO, DREAM ON DEANIE BABIES!
Still, with the vogue for scandel in the US today, and with every
BIMBO ready for her "15 minute of fame," because "he looked at me
funny," or whatever. You never can tell.
APPARENTLY, ONLY DEMOCRATS HAVE THESE SEX PROBLEMS THOUGH,.....VERY
STRANGE INDEED.
PERHAPS, IT'S BECAUSE DEMOCRATS "LIKE PEOPLE" MORE? YA THINK?
THEY LIVE LESS "REPRESSIVE" LIFE STYLES. THEY ARE LESS LIKELY TO "GO
TO CHURCH" REGULARLY.
UNLIKE REPUBLICANS---WHOSE GOOD MORALS, AND REGULAR CHURCH GOING TEND
TO PUSH THEM MORE TOWARDS DRUG AND ALCOHOL ABUSE!
BY GOLLY, I THINK THAT'S IT EXACTLY!
QUICK CALL MATT DRUDGE.................
Postscript: Maybe a DRAFT HILLARY MOVEMENT is on the horizon?
TRADE DEFICIT AND WEAK DOLLAR
The soaring Trade Deficit is no surprise.
The US is still importing like mad, but now with a weaker dollar!
Hence, the increase in the dollar value of the import deficit.
If something is priced in Yen or Euros and it's brought by an American with dollars, the weak dollar means you PAY MORE!
IT'S NO DIFFERENT THAT THOSE HOTEL ROOMS IN PARIS OR ROME! THEY SIMPLY COST AMERICANS MORE NOW THAT THE DOLLAR IS WEAK!
OR, PUT ANOTHER WAY;
NOTHING HAS CHANGED BUT THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR.
More troubling is the decline in exports. After all, the weak dollar was supposed to help US exports. The problem is that so little is actually produced in the US anymore! And, just "exporting" scrap metal and paper pulp to Asia is pretty low value added. And, it doesn't look like aerospace/aviation is going to help this time around.
HERE'S A NIGHTMARE SCENARIO TO WORRY ABOUT:
WHAT IF THE WEAKER DOLLAR ACTUALLY INCREASES THE TRADE DEFICIT LONG TERM INSTEAD OF LOWERING IT, AS THE TEXTBOOKS PREDICT?
ANYONE FOR EURO AT 200?
YEN AT 50?
COULD THE US ECONOMY REALLY BE THAT SICK?
The US is still importing like mad, but now with a weaker dollar!
Hence, the increase in the dollar value of the import deficit.
If something is priced in Yen or Euros and it's brought by an American with dollars, the weak dollar means you PAY MORE!
IT'S NO DIFFERENT THAT THOSE HOTEL ROOMS IN PARIS OR ROME! THEY SIMPLY COST AMERICANS MORE NOW THAT THE DOLLAR IS WEAK!
OR, PUT ANOTHER WAY;
NOTHING HAS CHANGED BUT THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR.
More troubling is the decline in exports. After all, the weak dollar was supposed to help US exports. The problem is that so little is actually produced in the US anymore! And, just "exporting" scrap metal and paper pulp to Asia is pretty low value added. And, it doesn't look like aerospace/aviation is going to help this time around.
HERE'S A NIGHTMARE SCENARIO TO WORRY ABOUT:
WHAT IF THE WEAKER DOLLAR ACTUALLY INCREASES THE TRADE DEFICIT LONG TERM INSTEAD OF LOWERING IT, AS THE TEXTBOOKS PREDICT?
ANYONE FOR EURO AT 200?
YEN AT 50?
COULD THE US ECONOMY REALLY BE THAT SICK?
Thursday, February 12, 2004
DUBYA'S WORST NIGHTMARE
What would you call a KERRY-CLARK TICKET for the Democrats this year?
CALL IT: DUBYA'S WORST NIGHTMARE!
TWO "REAL" MILITARY MEN; AGAINST DUBYA AND HIS LITTLE NEOCONS COULD BE OVERWHELMING!
Worse yet, it's very likely that Iraq will get worse, not better, as the year goes on.
And, if jobs don't MAGICALLY re-appear! DEUS EX MACHINA! As one and all the experts are predicting? Well, not good......
Against KERRY-CLARK Dubya would appear a very, very small man indeed!
Even with the Presidential Seal on his podium.
And, the chances of MASSIVE DEMOSTRATIONS against The War and Dubya's economic policies at the REPUBLICAN CONVENTION?
ALMOST CERTAIN! PERHAPS EVEN 1968 IN CHICAGO REDUX!
AND, THESE ARE JUST THE THINGS WE KNOW FOR SURE!
CRANK IN THE INEVITABLE "UNKNOWN UNKNOWS." Like the current Bull Market?
AND, YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS OF A VERY STRESSFUL YEAR FOR DUBYA AND CHUMS.
CALL IT: DUBYA'S WORST NIGHTMARE!
TWO "REAL" MILITARY MEN; AGAINST DUBYA AND HIS LITTLE NEOCONS COULD BE OVERWHELMING!
Worse yet, it's very likely that Iraq will get worse, not better, as the year goes on.
And, if jobs don't MAGICALLY re-appear! DEUS EX MACHINA! As one and all the experts are predicting? Well, not good......
Against KERRY-CLARK Dubya would appear a very, very small man indeed!
Even with the Presidential Seal on his podium.
And, the chances of MASSIVE DEMOSTRATIONS against The War and Dubya's economic policies at the REPUBLICAN CONVENTION?
ALMOST CERTAIN! PERHAPS EVEN 1968 IN CHICAGO REDUX!
AND, THESE ARE JUST THE THINGS WE KNOW FOR SURE!
CRANK IN THE INEVITABLE "UNKNOWN UNKNOWS." Like the current Bull Market?
AND, YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS OF A VERY STRESSFUL YEAR FOR DUBYA AND CHUMS.
RECORD HIGH VACANY RATES!
Amid the Real Estate Bubble prices, few have noticed the disasterous state of the rental markets.
Walk through any office building, it's half empty. Walk through any apartment complex, ditto!
As go the office rents, so goes the apartment rents.
What it really feels like "on the ground" is that "people dry up!"
NOBODY IS EVEN LOOKING ANYMORE!
It's not like you can lower the rent, and THEN you will get a tenant. It doesn't work like that.
YOU SIMPLY CAN NOT EVEN GET ANYONE TO TALK TO YOU!
Why is this?
Well, among the "tenant class" for apartments, these people are really the "canaries in the mineshaft" for the economy.
When the economy is punk, tenants go away. Nobody knows where they actually go. They just go. Probably, back with mom and pop. Or they move in with friends. And, doubling and tripling up has been going on for years!
FOR MANY YOUNG PEOPLE HAVING THEIR OWN APARTMENT IS THE ULTIMATE LUXURY. AND, ALAS, MANY CAN NOT AFFORD IT ANYMORE BECAUSE OF LOW WAGES AND A POOR JOB MARKET.
Also, there are demographic issues in play.
There was a "birth dearth" in the 1970's, during the last Great Recession. And so, we simply have fewer young people to fill the apartments.
Indeed, many young people today are from "foreign sources."
And, among these new foreigners, like Hispanics and Middle Eastern immigrants, who tend to have large families, many prefer to live in "extended family" households.
They are not big sources for new household formation.
And, among many native Americans, "having kids" is often seen to be "low class."
Many young American women nowadays don't have kids, they have law practices! But ten years or so, down the line, that starts to bite at the economy in unpredictable ways.
Additionally, the "end of welfare as we knew it" has forced many poor people to abandon the rental market completely;
And seek alternative housing, either with relatives and friends, in subsidized units, or in homeless shelters.
THE POINT IS: IT ALL ADDS UP AFTER A WHILE.
DEMOGRAPHICS, ECONOMICS, SOCIAL TRENDS, BIRTH RATES;
EVENTUALLY YOU HAVE TODAY'S RENTAL MARKET, WITH VACANCY RATES AT RECORD HIGHS.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/10/pf/yourhome/rentalprices/index.htm
Walk through any office building, it's half empty. Walk through any apartment complex, ditto!
As go the office rents, so goes the apartment rents.
What it really feels like "on the ground" is that "people dry up!"
NOBODY IS EVEN LOOKING ANYMORE!
It's not like you can lower the rent, and THEN you will get a tenant. It doesn't work like that.
YOU SIMPLY CAN NOT EVEN GET ANYONE TO TALK TO YOU!
Why is this?
Well, among the "tenant class" for apartments, these people are really the "canaries in the mineshaft" for the economy.
When the economy is punk, tenants go away. Nobody knows where they actually go. They just go. Probably, back with mom and pop. Or they move in with friends. And, doubling and tripling up has been going on for years!
FOR MANY YOUNG PEOPLE HAVING THEIR OWN APARTMENT IS THE ULTIMATE LUXURY. AND, ALAS, MANY CAN NOT AFFORD IT ANYMORE BECAUSE OF LOW WAGES AND A POOR JOB MARKET.
Also, there are demographic issues in play.
There was a "birth dearth" in the 1970's, during the last Great Recession. And so, we simply have fewer young people to fill the apartments.
Indeed, many young people today are from "foreign sources."
And, among these new foreigners, like Hispanics and Middle Eastern immigrants, who tend to have large families, many prefer to live in "extended family" households.
They are not big sources for new household formation.
And, among many native Americans, "having kids" is often seen to be "low class."
Many young American women nowadays don't have kids, they have law practices! But ten years or so, down the line, that starts to bite at the economy in unpredictable ways.
Additionally, the "end of welfare as we knew it" has forced many poor people to abandon the rental market completely;
And seek alternative housing, either with relatives and friends, in subsidized units, or in homeless shelters.
THE POINT IS: IT ALL ADDS UP AFTER A WHILE.
DEMOGRAPHICS, ECONOMICS, SOCIAL TRENDS, BIRTH RATES;
EVENTUALLY YOU HAVE TODAY'S RENTAL MARKET, WITH VACANCY RATES AT RECORD HIGHS.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/10/pf/yourhome/rentalprices/index.htm
DEATH OF THE MALL
The history of American retailing is fascinating.
In 1900, the retail landscape was dominated by local stores selling
local products. Production was therefore small.
With completion of the railroads, came the big catalog outlets:
Sears. Montgomery Ward.
But, with this new MASS DISTRIBUTION came the opportuntity for NATIONAL BRANDING.
National Branding began early with Patent Medicines, aka "snake oil."
But soon expanded into basic goods like flour (Gold Metal), Cooking
Oil, (Mazolla), Baking Soda, (Calumet), and Nerve Tonics, (Coke and
Dr Pepper)!
So, you then had local stores selling local goods; and some nationally branded products.
Then, in the 1920's, THE STORES, NOT THE PRODUCTS, BECAME "BRANDED!"
This was the advent of J.C. Penny, and the CHAIN STORE PHENOMENON.
Basically, big city stores grew UP! And, became DOWNTOWN DEPARTMENT STORES.
And, small city stores grew OUT! And, became CHAIN STORES.
PENNY'S WAS A SMALL TOWN STORE AT FIRST; JUST LIKE WALMART!
OK, FAST FORWARD TO TODAY:
SUPER WALMARTS ARE STARTING TO RESEMBLE THE OLD BIG CITY DEPARTMENT
STORES. EVERYTHING FROM DRY GOODS, FOOD, HAIR STYLING, BANKING, ALL
UNDER ONE ROOF.
AND THE MALLS, WHICH MOVED "MAIN STREET" TO THE SUBURBS, AND PUT A
ROOF OVER IT, ARE STARTING TO BE CHALLENGED BY:
BIG BOX CLUSTER STORES!
Increasingly, you see these catagory killer "BIG BOX" stores all
congregating in ONE SPOT! BIG BOX CLUSTERS.
FIND A BED, BATH AND BEYOND; AND CAN BORDERS, OR BARNES & NOBEL BE FAR AWAY? OF COURSE NOT!
AND A BEST BUY! HOME DEPOT! STARBUCKS!
LATELY, IT SEEMS THAT "BIG BOX CLUSTERS" ARE REPLACING THE MALLS ALL
OVER AMERICA.
And, Malls are being slowing reduced to the kind of "boutique style"
small stores that can't give the consumers wide choices at low prices.
CONCLUSION?
MALLS HAVE BECOME LIKE THE OLD MAIN STREET STORE! THE KISS OF DEATH FOR RETAILERS.
AND, THE BIG BOX CLUSTER STORES HAVE BECOME THE "NEW MALLS!"
In 1900, the retail landscape was dominated by local stores selling
local products. Production was therefore small.
With completion of the railroads, came the big catalog outlets:
Sears. Montgomery Ward.
But, with this new MASS DISTRIBUTION came the opportuntity for NATIONAL BRANDING.
National Branding began early with Patent Medicines, aka "snake oil."
But soon expanded into basic goods like flour (Gold Metal), Cooking
Oil, (Mazolla), Baking Soda, (Calumet), and Nerve Tonics, (Coke and
Dr Pepper)!
So, you then had local stores selling local goods; and some nationally branded products.
Then, in the 1920's, THE STORES, NOT THE PRODUCTS, BECAME "BRANDED!"
This was the advent of J.C. Penny, and the CHAIN STORE PHENOMENON.
Basically, big city stores grew UP! And, became DOWNTOWN DEPARTMENT STORES.
And, small city stores grew OUT! And, became CHAIN STORES.
PENNY'S WAS A SMALL TOWN STORE AT FIRST; JUST LIKE WALMART!
OK, FAST FORWARD TO TODAY:
SUPER WALMARTS ARE STARTING TO RESEMBLE THE OLD BIG CITY DEPARTMENT
STORES. EVERYTHING FROM DRY GOODS, FOOD, HAIR STYLING, BANKING, ALL
UNDER ONE ROOF.
AND THE MALLS, WHICH MOVED "MAIN STREET" TO THE SUBURBS, AND PUT A
ROOF OVER IT, ARE STARTING TO BE CHALLENGED BY:
BIG BOX CLUSTER STORES!
Increasingly, you see these catagory killer "BIG BOX" stores all
congregating in ONE SPOT! BIG BOX CLUSTERS.
FIND A BED, BATH AND BEYOND; AND CAN BORDERS, OR BARNES & NOBEL BE FAR AWAY? OF COURSE NOT!
AND A BEST BUY! HOME DEPOT! STARBUCKS!
LATELY, IT SEEMS THAT "BIG BOX CLUSTERS" ARE REPLACING THE MALLS ALL
OVER AMERICA.
And, Malls are being slowing reduced to the kind of "boutique style"
small stores that can't give the consumers wide choices at low prices.
CONCLUSION?
MALLS HAVE BECOME LIKE THE OLD MAIN STREET STORE! THE KISS OF DEATH FOR RETAILERS.
AND, THE BIG BOX CLUSTER STORES HAVE BECOME THE "NEW MALLS!"
HOW SANE IS GREENSPAN?
Somewhere along the way the US economy seems to have slipped the bonds of sanity, and moved into a strange kind of fantasyland.
With a twin deficit of one Trillion annually, Greenpsan still insists that more "accomedation" is necessary; even to the point of leaving rates at 50 year lows!
TAKEN AS A WHOLE, YOU HAVE TO ASK: WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?
Furthermore, Greenspan's unwillingness to directly criticize the TAX CUTS, but his constant criticism of spending for "entitlements" has got to cause concern.
STILL, I THINK THE BEST AND MOST LIKELY PROOF THAT MR. G HAS GONE "AROUND THE BEND" A BIT IS HIS PREDICTION ON JOBS.
Everyone knows that what's happening to the US job market is STRUCTURAL, NOT CYCLICAL.
GOOD JOBS ARE NOT COMING BACK.
AND WORSE, EVEN THE LOW WAGE JOBS WILL GET FEWER AND FEWER, AS THE US ECONOMY BECOMES MORE AND MORE LIKE THAT OF A LATIN AMERICAN PLUTOCRACY.
WHILE MANY ORDINARY PEOPLE WILL SURVIVE ON LOW WAGES AND SHOPPING AT THE DOLLAR STORE;
SOONER OR LATER, SOME KIND OF SOCIAL SAFETY NET WILL BE REQUIRED!
One thing that Greenspan and others in the Wall Street Cabal fail to notice is that THERE ARE LIMITS ON HOW FAR DOWN YOU CAN PUSH PEOPLE!
AND, ESPECIALLY IF THOSE PEOPLE ARE MIDDLE CLASS.
BECAUSE SOONER OR LATER, THEY BECOME HOMELESS, NOT JUST JOBLESS!
THEN WHAT?
Dubya is going to spend hundreds of millions on his re-election bid this year;
WHAT THE CASH STRAPPED DEMOCRATS NEED TO DO IS ORGANIZE A "MARCH ON WASHINGTON" THIS SUMMER;
BY THE UNEMPLOYED, THE UNDER-EMPLOYED, AND THE HEALTH CARE UNINSURED.
AND, ALL OTHERS AGGRIEVED BY THE BRUTALITY OF THE THE CURRENT US ECONOMY.
These are likely the final days of the WALL STREET ONLY ECONOMY;
When President Kerry takes over in January 2005, he will have a job on his hands that will approach that of FDR in 1932.
AND, THE FIRST OFFICIAL ACTION OF THE NEW PRESIDENT SHOULD BE TO ASK FOR GREENSPAN TO RESIGN!
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. AND TOO MUCH IS WAY OVER THE TOP.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2004/february/testimony.htm
With a twin deficit of one Trillion annually, Greenpsan still insists that more "accomedation" is necessary; even to the point of leaving rates at 50 year lows!
TAKEN AS A WHOLE, YOU HAVE TO ASK: WHAT'S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?
Furthermore, Greenspan's unwillingness to directly criticize the TAX CUTS, but his constant criticism of spending for "entitlements" has got to cause concern.
STILL, I THINK THE BEST AND MOST LIKELY PROOF THAT MR. G HAS GONE "AROUND THE BEND" A BIT IS HIS PREDICTION ON JOBS.
Everyone knows that what's happening to the US job market is STRUCTURAL, NOT CYCLICAL.
GOOD JOBS ARE NOT COMING BACK.
AND WORSE, EVEN THE LOW WAGE JOBS WILL GET FEWER AND FEWER, AS THE US ECONOMY BECOMES MORE AND MORE LIKE THAT OF A LATIN AMERICAN PLUTOCRACY.
WHILE MANY ORDINARY PEOPLE WILL SURVIVE ON LOW WAGES AND SHOPPING AT THE DOLLAR STORE;
SOONER OR LATER, SOME KIND OF SOCIAL SAFETY NET WILL BE REQUIRED!
One thing that Greenspan and others in the Wall Street Cabal fail to notice is that THERE ARE LIMITS ON HOW FAR DOWN YOU CAN PUSH PEOPLE!
AND, ESPECIALLY IF THOSE PEOPLE ARE MIDDLE CLASS.
BECAUSE SOONER OR LATER, THEY BECOME HOMELESS, NOT JUST JOBLESS!
THEN WHAT?
Dubya is going to spend hundreds of millions on his re-election bid this year;
WHAT THE CASH STRAPPED DEMOCRATS NEED TO DO IS ORGANIZE A "MARCH ON WASHINGTON" THIS SUMMER;
BY THE UNEMPLOYED, THE UNDER-EMPLOYED, AND THE HEALTH CARE UNINSURED.
AND, ALL OTHERS AGGRIEVED BY THE BRUTALITY OF THE THE CURRENT US ECONOMY.
These are likely the final days of the WALL STREET ONLY ECONOMY;
When President Kerry takes over in January 2005, he will have a job on his hands that will approach that of FDR in 1932.
AND, THE FIRST OFFICIAL ACTION OF THE NEW PRESIDENT SHOULD BE TO ASK FOR GREENSPAN TO RESIGN!
ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. AND TOO MUCH IS WAY OVER THE TOP.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2004/february/testimony.htm
Wednesday, February 11, 2004
DUBYA: THE GREAT UNIFIER!
Dubya may be the GREAT DIVIDER in the US.
BUT, IN IRAQ DUBYA IS THE GREAT UNIFIER!
IRAQ WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE MIDST OF A CIVIL WAR, RIGHT NOW;
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE ABSOLUTE HATRED THAT ALL IRAQIS SEEM TO HAVE FOR DUBYA & HIS NEOCON CHUMS!
Now, a majority of Iraqis hate ALL AMERICANS, to be sure.
But, some Iraqis, the more sophisticated thinkers among them, make a distinction between Dubya, and the rest of the Americans.
Indeed, Dubya has unified Euroland in ways once thought totally impossible!
ANTI-DUBYAISM AND ANTI-AMERICANISM IS SHOCKING EVEN TO LONG TIME TRAVELERS IN THOSE REGIONS!
When PRESIDENT KERRY takes office in January 2005 the first thing he should do is go to the UN, and to Europe, and to the Middle East and say:
WE'RE BACK!
But, this time as partners, not as an ARMY OF CONQUEST!
THEN, JUST WATCH HOW QUICKLY MANY THINGS WILL CHANGE FOR THE BETTER!
BUT, IN IRAQ DUBYA IS THE GREAT UNIFIER!
IRAQ WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE MIDST OF A CIVIL WAR, RIGHT NOW;
IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE ABSOLUTE HATRED THAT ALL IRAQIS SEEM TO HAVE FOR DUBYA & HIS NEOCON CHUMS!
Now, a majority of Iraqis hate ALL AMERICANS, to be sure.
But, some Iraqis, the more sophisticated thinkers among them, make a distinction between Dubya, and the rest of the Americans.
Indeed, Dubya has unified Euroland in ways once thought totally impossible!
ANTI-DUBYAISM AND ANTI-AMERICANISM IS SHOCKING EVEN TO LONG TIME TRAVELERS IN THOSE REGIONS!
When PRESIDENT KERRY takes office in January 2005 the first thing he should do is go to the UN, and to Europe, and to the Middle East and say:
WE'RE BACK!
But, this time as partners, not as an ARMY OF CONQUEST!
THEN, JUST WATCH HOW QUICKLY MANY THINGS WILL CHANGE FOR THE BETTER!
GREENSPAN SHOULD QUIT!
Greenspan's credibility is starting to approach that of DUBYA, THE
LAME DUCK!
Dr Sunshine sees an improving economy, even while our COMBINED
DEFICITS EXCEED ONE TRILLION PER YEAR!
And the JOBS FAMINE, in the face of 8% growth two quarters ago,
was,...well, IT'S JUST THE PRODUCTIVITY TALKING!
THE PROBLEM IS THAT COMPANIES DON'T NEED TO HIRE VERY MANY PEOPLE
JUST TO UNPACK THE BOXES THAT ARE COMING IN FROM CHINA!
ASIA IS BASICALLY SAYING TO THE US:
ANYTHING YOU CAN DO, WE CAN DO CHEAPER, FASTER, SMARTER AND BETTER!
Americans have never been the smartest and hardest working people in
the world;
BUT, WE HAVE HAD THAT OTHER IMPORTANT THING GOING FOR US:
LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION!
If free trade is truly taking the location advantage away?
Well, The End is probably nearer than many think.
(But perhaps, International Capital doesn't have to care about that little "technicality" anymore.)
Greenspan is SO, TWENTITH CENTURY in his thinking. We really need
someone who can think out into the middle of the 21st Century!
BECAUSE, THAT IS THE ONLY "CONSIDERABLE PERIOD" THAT REALLY MATTERS.
FORGET THE NEXT QUARTER, THE NEXT YEAR, THE NEXT ELECTION CYCLE!
GREENSPAN WOULD DO US ALL A FAVOR IF HE WOULD JUST QUIT, YOU KNOW, A
LITTLE TIME OFF TO SMELL THE ROSES.
AND I WOULD HOPE THAT PRESIDENT KERRY WOULD, AT LEAST PRIVATELY, ASK
MR GREENSPAN TO "RETIRE" AFTER JANUARY 2005.
BECAUSE, IT'S TIME FOR SOME "NEW THINKING" ABOUT WHERE THE US ECONOMY
IS HEADING.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2004/february/testimony.htm
LAME DUCK!
Dr Sunshine sees an improving economy, even while our COMBINED
DEFICITS EXCEED ONE TRILLION PER YEAR!
And the JOBS FAMINE, in the face of 8% growth two quarters ago,
was,...well, IT'S JUST THE PRODUCTIVITY TALKING!
THE PROBLEM IS THAT COMPANIES DON'T NEED TO HIRE VERY MANY PEOPLE
JUST TO UNPACK THE BOXES THAT ARE COMING IN FROM CHINA!
ASIA IS BASICALLY SAYING TO THE US:
ANYTHING YOU CAN DO, WE CAN DO CHEAPER, FASTER, SMARTER AND BETTER!
Americans have never been the smartest and hardest working people in
the world;
BUT, WE HAVE HAD THAT OTHER IMPORTANT THING GOING FOR US:
LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION!
If free trade is truly taking the location advantage away?
Well, The End is probably nearer than many think.
(But perhaps, International Capital doesn't have to care about that little "technicality" anymore.)
Greenspan is SO, TWENTITH CENTURY in his thinking. We really need
someone who can think out into the middle of the 21st Century!
BECAUSE, THAT IS THE ONLY "CONSIDERABLE PERIOD" THAT REALLY MATTERS.
FORGET THE NEXT QUARTER, THE NEXT YEAR, THE NEXT ELECTION CYCLE!
GREENSPAN WOULD DO US ALL A FAVOR IF HE WOULD JUST QUIT, YOU KNOW, A
LITTLE TIME OFF TO SMELL THE ROSES.
AND I WOULD HOPE THAT PRESIDENT KERRY WOULD, AT LEAST PRIVATELY, ASK
MR GREENSPAN TO "RETIRE" AFTER JANUARY 2005.
BECAUSE, IT'S TIME FOR SOME "NEW THINKING" ABOUT WHERE THE US ECONOMY
IS HEADING.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/hh/2004/february/testimony.htm
Tuesday, February 10, 2004
GREENSPAN'S ZOO!
Greenspan has been accused of everything from A to Z.
But, just to make sure, I'll call him a ZOO KEEPER.
Now, I really hate zoos. Because the animal "prisoners" always seem
more bored than I am! And, like I always say, if you've seen one
meercat, you've seen 'em all. I think attendance at zoos should be
limited to children under five, and people will degrees in zoology.
Of course, with some adult supervision allowed.
Now, in Greenspan's Zoo the "animals" are being fed to the point of
morbid obesity on his ONE PERCENT SOLUTION ANIMAL FEED!
INDEED, THERE ARE A LARGE NUMBER OF "SPECIMENS" IN GREENSPAN'S ZOO
THAT WOULD BE EXTINCT, IF THEY WERE LEFT OUT INTO THE "WILDS" OF
GLOBAL CAPITALISM!
In short, Greenspan has created an "artificial environment" where
these animal can subsist, and even breed!
And we will never knew which are survivors and which are on the road
to a well deserved extinction, UNTIL THE ULTRA-LOW RATES GO AWAY!
Would some deals not get done if rates were 2% instead of 1%?
Probably.
And, if mom and pop could get a "decent" 4 or 5 percent at the bank
would they stay in stocks? Probably Not!
THE POINT IS THAT GREENSPAN'S ZOO HAS CREATED AN ARTIFICIAL ECONOMY!
ONE THAT CAN NOT, AND WILL NOT, BE ABLE TO SURVIVE ON IT'S
OWN.....THAT'S REALLY WHAT "JAPAN DISEASE" IS ALL ABOUT.
Of course there is the dollar NOT to worry about! Right?
And, oil and gold NOT to worry about.
And, indeed, the world's sole surviving COMMUNISTS are big holders of
US Treasury Bonds! Marx would be pleased I'm sure. But NOT to worry.
GREENSPAN WILL KEEP US SAFE IN OUR LITTLE "ECONOMIC ZOO" FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PERIOD; BEING THE PATIENT MAN THAT HE IS.
LET'S HOPE THAT EVERYONE ELSE CAN AFFORD TO BE THAT PATIENT!
But, just to make sure, I'll call him a ZOO KEEPER.
Now, I really hate zoos. Because the animal "prisoners" always seem
more bored than I am! And, like I always say, if you've seen one
meercat, you've seen 'em all. I think attendance at zoos should be
limited to children under five, and people will degrees in zoology.
Of course, with some adult supervision allowed.
Now, in Greenspan's Zoo the "animals" are being fed to the point of
morbid obesity on his ONE PERCENT SOLUTION ANIMAL FEED!
INDEED, THERE ARE A LARGE NUMBER OF "SPECIMENS" IN GREENSPAN'S ZOO
THAT WOULD BE EXTINCT, IF THEY WERE LEFT OUT INTO THE "WILDS" OF
GLOBAL CAPITALISM!
In short, Greenspan has created an "artificial environment" where
these animal can subsist, and even breed!
And we will never knew which are survivors and which are on the road
to a well deserved extinction, UNTIL THE ULTRA-LOW RATES GO AWAY!
Would some deals not get done if rates were 2% instead of 1%?
Probably.
And, if mom and pop could get a "decent" 4 or 5 percent at the bank
would they stay in stocks? Probably Not!
THE POINT IS THAT GREENSPAN'S ZOO HAS CREATED AN ARTIFICIAL ECONOMY!
ONE THAT CAN NOT, AND WILL NOT, BE ABLE TO SURVIVE ON IT'S
OWN.....THAT'S REALLY WHAT "JAPAN DISEASE" IS ALL ABOUT.
Of course there is the dollar NOT to worry about! Right?
And, oil and gold NOT to worry about.
And, indeed, the world's sole surviving COMMUNISTS are big holders of
US Treasury Bonds! Marx would be pleased I'm sure. But NOT to worry.
GREENSPAN WILL KEEP US SAFE IN OUR LITTLE "ECONOMIC ZOO" FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PERIOD; BEING THE PATIENT MAN THAT HE IS.
LET'S HOPE THAT EVERYONE ELSE CAN AFFORD TO BE THAT PATIENT!
THE COMING WAR ON OPEC!
News that OPEC is cutting production is not really surprising.
On the economic level, the weak dollar is creating a 1970's Redux view among many.
On the political level, news that Richard Perle and the neocons want to "liberate" the Shia of Eastern Saudi Arabia (where the oil fields are!) Can not be going over too well, with the House of Saud! Now they have to worry about Osama and Mr Perle!
Very likely, when the history of this era is written, all of this daily yada-yada will be reduced to THE WAR FOR OIL!
And, there have been a lot of worse reasons that have started wars.
THAT'S WHY WE AIN'T LEAVIN' IRAQ!
NOT BECAUSE OF DEMOCRACY!
NOT BECAUSE OF WOMEN'S RIGHT!
NOT BECAUSE OF WMDs!
When Richard Perle and Osama are both after the House of Saud!
Something is definitely up.
Alas, right now, it's the price of oil!
On the economic level, the weak dollar is creating a 1970's Redux view among many.
On the political level, news that Richard Perle and the neocons want to "liberate" the Shia of Eastern Saudi Arabia (where the oil fields are!) Can not be going over too well, with the House of Saud! Now they have to worry about Osama and Mr Perle!
Very likely, when the history of this era is written, all of this daily yada-yada will be reduced to THE WAR FOR OIL!
And, there have been a lot of worse reasons that have started wars.
THAT'S WHY WE AIN'T LEAVIN' IRAQ!
NOT BECAUSE OF DEMOCRACY!
NOT BECAUSE OF WOMEN'S RIGHT!
NOT BECAUSE OF WMDs!
When Richard Perle and Osama are both after the House of Saud!
Something is definitely up.
Alas, right now, it's the price of oil!
THE WARTIME PRESIDENT?
I'm a little shocked that the pundits are giving Dubya a pass on this notion that he is somehow a "Wartime President."
Wars as a rule have at least as many people opposed to them, as support them.
And, you simply can not START a war, and then claim to be a "Wartime President." I think we are confusing the "Roosevlet Model" with the historical norm in this regard.
Dubya has invaded two countries, since 911. And, he has very little to show for it.
The sad truth is that 911 was a crime, not an act of war.
TRUE, A HUGE CRIME, BUT STILL A CRIME.
How so?
Well, to actually have a "normal war" you need an enemy power, some government to blame. Because, war is "justifible violence" to handle inter govenmental disputes. Or, if you prefer, politics by other means.
The notion that the Taliban were "harboring" Osama, could have been dealt with though diplomatic means. And, the idea that Saddam may have been a "bad person," or was thinking "bad thoughts" was not a causus belli, normally defined.
When Hitler invaded Poland, he didn't try to hide it!
When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, they didn't blame it on someone else!
THAT'S REAL WAR!
Not this mumbo-jumbo stuff coming out of Washington.
In today's NYT David Brooks is starting to portray Dubya as THE MISUNDERSTOOD NOBLE SAVAGE, who may lose the election, but for pure and honorable reasons.
The idea seems to be: We were attacked and we had to attack back. Well, maybe...... But look were that reasoning has got us!
MAYBE IF DUBYA HAD BEEN ON THE BALL IN THE MIDDLE EAST INSTEAD OF KOW-TOWING TO SHARON AND THE LIKUD PARTY; DUBYA COULD HAVE BEEN THE "HONEST BROKER."
MAYBE NOT, MAYBE POPPY BUSH NIXED THAT IDEA IN THE MINDS OF THE ISLAMISTS, STARTING FROM THE DUBYA'S FIRST DAY IN OFFICE.
I suppose we'll never know what forks in the road weren't taken.
STILL, IF THE NOTION NOW IS THAT DUBYA HAS TO CONQUOR THE ENTIRE EMPIRE OF ISLAM;
SO SHARON AND THE LIKUD CAN SAFELY TAKE THE WEST BANK? Which they have never denied was their ultimate goal!
WE HAVE TAKEN A WRONG TURN SOMEWHERE!
Wars as a rule have at least as many people opposed to them, as support them.
And, you simply can not START a war, and then claim to be a "Wartime President." I think we are confusing the "Roosevlet Model" with the historical norm in this regard.
Dubya has invaded two countries, since 911. And, he has very little to show for it.
The sad truth is that 911 was a crime, not an act of war.
TRUE, A HUGE CRIME, BUT STILL A CRIME.
How so?
Well, to actually have a "normal war" you need an enemy power, some government to blame. Because, war is "justifible violence" to handle inter govenmental disputes. Or, if you prefer, politics by other means.
The notion that the Taliban were "harboring" Osama, could have been dealt with though diplomatic means. And, the idea that Saddam may have been a "bad person," or was thinking "bad thoughts" was not a causus belli, normally defined.
When Hitler invaded Poland, he didn't try to hide it!
When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, they didn't blame it on someone else!
THAT'S REAL WAR!
Not this mumbo-jumbo stuff coming out of Washington.
In today's NYT David Brooks is starting to portray Dubya as THE MISUNDERSTOOD NOBLE SAVAGE, who may lose the election, but for pure and honorable reasons.
The idea seems to be: We were attacked and we had to attack back. Well, maybe...... But look were that reasoning has got us!
MAYBE IF DUBYA HAD BEEN ON THE BALL IN THE MIDDLE EAST INSTEAD OF KOW-TOWING TO SHARON AND THE LIKUD PARTY; DUBYA COULD HAVE BEEN THE "HONEST BROKER."
MAYBE NOT, MAYBE POPPY BUSH NIXED THAT IDEA IN THE MINDS OF THE ISLAMISTS, STARTING FROM THE DUBYA'S FIRST DAY IN OFFICE.
I suppose we'll never know what forks in the road weren't taken.
STILL, IF THE NOTION NOW IS THAT DUBYA HAS TO CONQUOR THE ENTIRE EMPIRE OF ISLAM;
SO SHARON AND THE LIKUD CAN SAFELY TAKE THE WEST BANK? Which they have never denied was their ultimate goal!
WE HAVE TAKEN A WRONG TURN SOMEWHERE!
THE WARTIME PRESIDENT?
I'm a little shocked that the pundits are giving Dubya a pass on this notion that he is somehow a "Wartime President."
Wars as a rule have at least as many people opposed to them, as support them.
And, you simply can not START a war, and then claim to be a "Wartime President." I think we are confusing the "Roosevlet Model" with the historical norm in this regard.
Dubya has invaded two countries, since 911. And, he has very little to show for it.
The sad truth is that 911 was a crime, not an act of war.
TRUE, A HUGE CRIME, BUT STILL A CRIME.
How so?
Well, to actually have a "normal war" you need an enemy power, some government to blame. Because, war is "justifible violence" to handle inter govenmental disputes. Or, if you prefer, politics by other means.
The notion that the Taliban were "harboring" Osama, could have been dealt with though diplomatic means. And, the idea that Saddam may have been a "bad person," or was thinking "bad thoughts" was not a causus belli, normally defined.
When Hitler invaded Poland, he didn't try to hide it!
When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, they didn't blame it on someone else!
THAT'S REAL WAR!
Not this mumbo-jumbo stuff coming out of Washington.
In today's NYT David Brooks is starting to portray Dubya as THE MISUNDERSTOOD NOBLE SAVAGE, who may lose the election, but for pure and honorable reasons.
The idea seems to be: We were attacked and we had to attack back. Well, maybe...... But look were that reasoning has got us!
MAYBE IF DUBYA HAD BEEN ON THE BALL IN THE MIDDLE EAST INSTEAD OF KOW-TOWING TO SHARON AND THE LIKUD PARTY; DUBYA COULD HAVE BEEN THE "HONEST BROKER."
MAYBE NOT, MAYBE POPPY BUSH NIXED THAT IDEA IN THE MINDS OF THE ISLAMISTS, STARTING FROM THE DUBYA'S FIRST DAY IN OFFICE.
I suppose we'll never know what forks in the road weren't taken.
STILL, IF THE NOTION NOW IS THAT DUBYA HAS TO CONQUOR THE ENTIRE EMPIRE OF ISLAM;
SO SHARON AND THE LIKUD CAN SAFELY TAKE THE WEST BANK? Which they have never denied was their ultimate goal!
WE HAVE TAKEN A WRONG TURN SOMEWHERE!
Wars as a rule have at least as many people opposed to them, as support them.
And, you simply can not START a war, and then claim to be a "Wartime President." I think we are confusing the "Roosevlet Model" with the historical norm in this regard.
Dubya has invaded two countries, since 911. And, he has very little to show for it.
The sad truth is that 911 was a crime, not an act of war.
TRUE, A HUGE CRIME, BUT STILL A CRIME.
How so?
Well, to actually have a "normal war" you need an enemy power, some government to blame. Because, war is "justifible violence" to handle inter govenmental disputes. Or, if you prefer, politics by other means.
The notion that the Taliban were "harboring" Osama, could have been dealt with though diplomatic means. And, the idea that Saddam may have been a "bad person," or was thinking "bad thoughts" was not a causus belli, normally defined.
When Hitler invaded Poland, he didn't try to hide it!
When Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, they didn't blame it on someone else!
THAT'S REAL WAR!
Not this mumbo-jumbo stuff coming out of Washington.
In today's NYT David Brooks is starting to portray Dubya as THE MISUNDERSTOOD NOBLE SAVAGE, who may lose the election, but for pure and honorable reasons.
The idea seems to be: We were attacked and we had to attack back. Well, maybe...... But look were that reasoning has got us!
MAYBE IF DUBYA HAD BEEN ON THE BALL IN THE MIDDLE EAST INSTEAD OF KOW-TOWING TO SHARON AND THE LIKUD PARTY; DUBYA COULD HAVE BEEN THE "HONEST BROKER."
MAYBE NOT, MAYBE POPPY BUSH NIXED THAT IDEA IN THE MINDS OF THE ISLAMISTS, STARTING FROM THE DUBYA'S FIRST DAY IN OFFICE.
I suppose we'll never know what forks in the road weren't taken.
STILL, IF THE NOTION NOW IS THAT DUBYA HAS TO CONQUOR THE ENTIRE EMPIRE OF ISLAM;
SO SHARON AND THE LIKUD CAN SAFELY TAKE THE WEST BANK? Which they have never denied was their ultimate goal!
WE HAVE TAKEN A WRONG TURN SOMEWHERE!
Monday, February 2, 2004
THE WMD THING
The WMD flap is a little amazing.
Because almost everyone outside the Beltway knew that Dubya & Co
were "puffing" the evidence on Iraq right from the get-go.
But, now we are all saying: I'M SHOCKED! SHOCKED! I TELL YOU!
When the WMD all turned out to be fake.
Consider:
Remember Scott Ritter? Yeah him, the "traitor," who was the "expert"
before David Kay got put on the payroll!
Ritter said there was NO WMDs long before Dubya's war mania got going.
And, remember Colin's pictures during the UN speech?
Just why weren't those WMD sites bombed years ago! Hmmm....? IF
they were real sites; which it turns out they were not!
Remember Trixy Blixy?
That guy who could talk out of both sides of his mouth at once. HE
FOUND NOTHING! And, not for want of looking.
IN SHORT, GENTLE READER, WE ALL KNEW THAT THERE WAS LITTLE OR NOTHING
IN THE WAY OF WMD IN IRAQ! SO, LETS QUIT THE NONSENSE ABOUT BEING
SHOCKED! OK?
WHY?
WELL, WE ALL KNEW THAT DUBYA WAS GOING INTO IRAQ--ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
BECAUSE DUBYA'S SIMPLE MINDED "AGENDA" ALWAYS WAS TO "UNDO" POPPY BUSH'S SUPPOSED "MISTAKES."
REMEMBER?
1. POPPY RAISED TAXES, AFTER SAYING "READ MY LIPS NO NEW TAXES."
2. POPPY DIDN'T "FINISH OFF" SADDAM, DURING THE FIRST GULF WAR.
AND, POPPY SUPPOSEDLY LOST THE ELECTION BECAUSE OF THESE "MISTAKES."
CURIOUSLY, NOW IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT DUBYA IS GOING TO LOSE HIS
ELECTION BID BECAUSE;
1. DUBYA CUT TAXES TOO MUCH.
2. DUBYA "FINISHED OFF" SADDAM WITH NO IDEA OF WHAT COMES NEXT!
Pretty amazing really.
BUT, IN TRUTH, BOTH DUBYA AND POPPY HAD A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH
THE "VISION THING."
AND, BOTH PURSUED POLICIES THAT GAVE US THAT "RECESSION THING."
Now isn't that really what happened? Hmmm.....?
Because almost everyone outside the Beltway knew that Dubya & Co
were "puffing" the evidence on Iraq right from the get-go.
But, now we are all saying: I'M SHOCKED! SHOCKED! I TELL YOU!
When the WMD all turned out to be fake.
Consider:
Remember Scott Ritter? Yeah him, the "traitor," who was the "expert"
before David Kay got put on the payroll!
Ritter said there was NO WMDs long before Dubya's war mania got going.
And, remember Colin's pictures during the UN speech?
Just why weren't those WMD sites bombed years ago! Hmmm....? IF
they were real sites; which it turns out they were not!
Remember Trixy Blixy?
That guy who could talk out of both sides of his mouth at once. HE
FOUND NOTHING! And, not for want of looking.
IN SHORT, GENTLE READER, WE ALL KNEW THAT THERE WAS LITTLE OR NOTHING
IN THE WAY OF WMD IN IRAQ! SO, LETS QUIT THE NONSENSE ABOUT BEING
SHOCKED! OK?
WHY?
WELL, WE ALL KNEW THAT DUBYA WAS GOING INTO IRAQ--ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.
BECAUSE DUBYA'S SIMPLE MINDED "AGENDA" ALWAYS WAS TO "UNDO" POPPY BUSH'S SUPPOSED "MISTAKES."
REMEMBER?
1. POPPY RAISED TAXES, AFTER SAYING "READ MY LIPS NO NEW TAXES."
2. POPPY DIDN'T "FINISH OFF" SADDAM, DURING THE FIRST GULF WAR.
AND, POPPY SUPPOSEDLY LOST THE ELECTION BECAUSE OF THESE "MISTAKES."
CURIOUSLY, NOW IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT DUBYA IS GOING TO LOSE HIS
ELECTION BID BECAUSE;
1. DUBYA CUT TAXES TOO MUCH.
2. DUBYA "FINISHED OFF" SADDAM WITH NO IDEA OF WHAT COMES NEXT!
Pretty amazing really.
BUT, IN TRUTH, BOTH DUBYA AND POPPY HAD A LITTLE TROUBLE WITH
THE "VISION THING."
AND, BOTH PURSUED POLICIES THAT GAVE US THAT "RECESSION THING."
Now isn't that really what happened? Hmmm.....?
FRIDAY JOBS? CALL THE POPE!
Amid all the to and fro in the market, the Friday Jobs number is key.
The clownish monkey-see-monkey-do economic community is sticking to
their story of 150,000 new jobs.
And, who knows, sooner or later they may get it right. Or, at least,
be "in the ball park!"
BUT, I DOUBT IT!
This January didn't feel like 150,000 new jobs.
Just the POLAR WEATHER alone could impact construction.
And, state and local governments are in ROUND TWO of deep budget cuts.
As for the private sector it feels like same old, same old.
Everybody comes home from work nowadays with a story about who "got
it" today!
THIS IS SIMPLY NOT AN EXPANDING JOBS ECONOMY! NOT YET. PERHAPS,
NEVER AGAIN.
Off shoring and down-sizing are alive and well.
And while Wall Street is putting on a happy face, somehow the rest of
the economy seems punk. Corporations are up to their Old Tricks and
now have some new ones, like the "weak dollar" to make their numbers.
Corporate governance is still in critical condition.
And, the prospect of PRESIDENT KERRY is still an "unknown unknown" as
Rummy might say!
But, My hunch is that EVERYONE, including Wall Street, will be happy
to see some GROWN-UPS back in charge at the White House. Send those
strange little "neo-cons" packing!
And, who knows maybe Kerry's "patrician roots" will make him Wall
Street's choice before the coming election!
Have you noticed a "vailed hostility" toward Dubya in the WSJ
lately? Or, is it just me?
MY HUNCH IS THAT WALL STREET WOULD PREFER TO HAVE A PRESIDENT WHO HAS
HAD BOTOX ON HIS FOREHEAD;
RATHER THAN ONE WHO SEEMS TO HAVE HAD BOTOX ON HIS BRAIN!
FRIDAY'S JOBS NUMBER COULD BE A REAL TREND SETTER!
AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT A DISASTEROUS NET JOB LOSS!
WHERE, INDEED, IS THE NEW JOBS STRENGH GOING TO COME FROM?
IT'S LIKE HOPING FOR A REPEAT OF THE "MIRACLE OF THE LOAVES AND THE
FISHES!"
SO, IF DUBYA GETS 200,000 JOBS ON FRIDAY?
CALL THE POPE!!
The clownish monkey-see-monkey-do economic community is sticking to
their story of 150,000 new jobs.
And, who knows, sooner or later they may get it right. Or, at least,
be "in the ball park!"
BUT, I DOUBT IT!
This January didn't feel like 150,000 new jobs.
Just the POLAR WEATHER alone could impact construction.
And, state and local governments are in ROUND TWO of deep budget cuts.
As for the private sector it feels like same old, same old.
Everybody comes home from work nowadays with a story about who "got
it" today!
THIS IS SIMPLY NOT AN EXPANDING JOBS ECONOMY! NOT YET. PERHAPS,
NEVER AGAIN.
Off shoring and down-sizing are alive and well.
And while Wall Street is putting on a happy face, somehow the rest of
the economy seems punk. Corporations are up to their Old Tricks and
now have some new ones, like the "weak dollar" to make their numbers.
Corporate governance is still in critical condition.
And, the prospect of PRESIDENT KERRY is still an "unknown unknown" as
Rummy might say!
But, My hunch is that EVERYONE, including Wall Street, will be happy
to see some GROWN-UPS back in charge at the White House. Send those
strange little "neo-cons" packing!
And, who knows maybe Kerry's "patrician roots" will make him Wall
Street's choice before the coming election!
Have you noticed a "vailed hostility" toward Dubya in the WSJ
lately? Or, is it just me?
MY HUNCH IS THAT WALL STREET WOULD PREFER TO HAVE A PRESIDENT WHO HAS
HAD BOTOX ON HIS FOREHEAD;
RATHER THAN ONE WHO SEEMS TO HAVE HAD BOTOX ON HIS BRAIN!
FRIDAY'S JOBS NUMBER COULD BE A REAL TREND SETTER!
AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT A DISASTEROUS NET JOB LOSS!
WHERE, INDEED, IS THE NEW JOBS STRENGH GOING TO COME FROM?
IT'S LIKE HOPING FOR A REPEAT OF THE "MIRACLE OF THE LOAVES AND THE
FISHES!"
SO, IF DUBYA GETS 200,000 JOBS ON FRIDAY?
CALL THE POPE!!
Sunday, February 1, 2004
INVISIBLE HAND LOOTS THE ECONOMY!
When it comes to jobs and the economy a lot of people are relying on
the "invisible hand" theory.
The problem is that THIS TIME, the Invisible Hand seems to be LOOTING
the economy; NOT HELPING IT.
Of course, we hear a lot of stories about Henry Ford and the "buggy
whip makers" these days.
From Greenspan on down everyone is being urged to "be patient," and
everything will be OK.
But, is this "faith-based" policy ill founded?
Consider:
When Henry Ford put the buggy whip makers out of business, he hired
them to make seats for automobiles.
And, the carriage makers, like the Fisher Brothers didn't "go out of
business" they made Auto Bodies by Fisher! Right?
Further, when people left the farms for the factories, THEY WERE
UPWARDLY MOBILE ON THE INCOME SCALE! NOT DOWNWARD!
UNLIKE TODAY, WHERE LOW PAID JOBS ARE REPLACING HIGH VALUE ADDED JOBS
ALL OVER THE US ECONOMY.
SO, NET-NET;
IS OUR FAITH IN THE "INVISIBLE HAND" MISPLACED THIS TIME AROUND?
I think it is.
And, this is an increadible risk to Washington and Wall Street,
because the RESULTS of the invisible hand approach to the economy
will be know SOON; perhaps even before the November elections.
It should be noted that back in 1993, when we had another "job-less"
recovery; Greenspan lowered rates all the way down to 3%, and even
then jobs didn't come back quickly.
JOBS DID COME BACK MAINLY THANKS TO THE LATE 90'S INTERNET BUBBLE!
BUT, WERE THOSE DOT COM JOBS, "REAL JOBS," OR MERELY THE PRODUCT OF
LOW RATES AND THE FORTUITOUS BUBBLE ABOUT A SUPPOSED "NEW ECONOMY?"
See the point?
Now, we are back in ultra-low rate mode.
But, there is NO MOJO behind it! No "NEW ECONOMY" to take advantage
of Greenspan's easy money.
Indeed, was it SOLELY the "new economy" that saved Greenspan's bacon
in the mid 90's?
WAS THE 1993 LOW-RATE FED GAMBIT JUST DAMN GOOD LUCK? LUCK THAT WILL
NOT REPEAT AGAIN?
SO, LOW RATES STRICTLY FOR SPECULATION IN THE MARKETS MAY
NOT BENEFIT THE REAL ECONOMY THIS TIME! BUT IT COULD CRASH THE
DOLLAR!
And indeed, this may not be the way to go; especially with record
deficits, and an economy that has been pretty much "looted" by the
Cult of the CEO.
The point?
WE MAY NOT GET A NEW ECONOMY "DEUS EX MACHINA" RECOVERY THIS TIME!
MAYBE, THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 1993 REDUX!
And, if it isn't?
A TRULY SCARY DOWNWARD PLUNGE IN AMERICAN FORTUNES COULD BE BREWING!
AND A LOT SOONER THAN MANY PEOPLE THINK.
the "invisible hand" theory.
The problem is that THIS TIME, the Invisible Hand seems to be LOOTING
the economy; NOT HELPING IT.
Of course, we hear a lot of stories about Henry Ford and the "buggy
whip makers" these days.
From Greenspan on down everyone is being urged to "be patient," and
everything will be OK.
But, is this "faith-based" policy ill founded?
Consider:
When Henry Ford put the buggy whip makers out of business, he hired
them to make seats for automobiles.
And, the carriage makers, like the Fisher Brothers didn't "go out of
business" they made Auto Bodies by Fisher! Right?
Further, when people left the farms for the factories, THEY WERE
UPWARDLY MOBILE ON THE INCOME SCALE! NOT DOWNWARD!
UNLIKE TODAY, WHERE LOW PAID JOBS ARE REPLACING HIGH VALUE ADDED JOBS
ALL OVER THE US ECONOMY.
SO, NET-NET;
IS OUR FAITH IN THE "INVISIBLE HAND" MISPLACED THIS TIME AROUND?
I think it is.
And, this is an increadible risk to Washington and Wall Street,
because the RESULTS of the invisible hand approach to the economy
will be know SOON; perhaps even before the November elections.
It should be noted that back in 1993, when we had another "job-less"
recovery; Greenspan lowered rates all the way down to 3%, and even
then jobs didn't come back quickly.
JOBS DID COME BACK MAINLY THANKS TO THE LATE 90'S INTERNET BUBBLE!
BUT, WERE THOSE DOT COM JOBS, "REAL JOBS," OR MERELY THE PRODUCT OF
LOW RATES AND THE FORTUITOUS BUBBLE ABOUT A SUPPOSED "NEW ECONOMY?"
See the point?
Now, we are back in ultra-low rate mode.
But, there is NO MOJO behind it! No "NEW ECONOMY" to take advantage
of Greenspan's easy money.
Indeed, was it SOLELY the "new economy" that saved Greenspan's bacon
in the mid 90's?
WAS THE 1993 LOW-RATE FED GAMBIT JUST DAMN GOOD LUCK? LUCK THAT WILL
NOT REPEAT AGAIN?
SO, LOW RATES STRICTLY FOR SPECULATION IN THE MARKETS MAY
NOT BENEFIT THE REAL ECONOMY THIS TIME! BUT IT COULD CRASH THE
DOLLAR!
And indeed, this may not be the way to go; especially with record
deficits, and an economy that has been pretty much "looted" by the
Cult of the CEO.
The point?
WE MAY NOT GET A NEW ECONOMY "DEUS EX MACHINA" RECOVERY THIS TIME!
MAYBE, THIS ISN'T GOING TO BE 1993 REDUX!
And, if it isn't?
A TRULY SCARY DOWNWARD PLUNGE IN AMERICAN FORTUNES COULD BE BREWING!
AND A LOT SOONER THAN MANY PEOPLE THINK.
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